how do voters make decisions???. campaigns in voting theories votersrole of campaigns ignorantto...
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![Page 1: How do voters make decisions???. Campaigns in Voting Theories VotersRole of Campaigns IgnorantTo manipulate](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022032522/56649d6c5503460f94a4b949/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
How do voters make decisions???
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Campaigns in Voting Theories
Voters Role of CampaignsIgnorant To manipulate
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Campaigns in Voting Theories
Voters Role of CampaignsIgnorant To manipulate
Bounded rationality
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Campaigns in Voting Theories
Voters Role of CampaignsIgnorant To manipulate
Bounded rationality To provide simple information to help people use shortcuts
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Campaigns in Voting Theories
Voters Role of CampaignsIgnorant To manipulate
Bounded rationality To provide simple information to help people use shortcuts
Highly socialized
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Campaigns in Voting Theories
Voters Role of CampaignsIgnorant To manipulate
Bounded rationality To provide simple information to help people use shortcuts
Highly socialized Meaningless?
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Funnel of Causality
Long term, stable partisan and policy predispositions
Current policy preferences and perceptions of current conditions
Retrospective evaluations of the president concerning results
Impressions of the candidates’ personal qualities
Prospective evaluations of the candidates and parties
Vote choice
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Sociological factors
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Voting in 2008 by race
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AfricanAmerican
White Other Hispanic
Obama
McCain
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Percent of blacks who voted Democratic minus
percent of whites who voted Democratic
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008
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Gender
• In 1992:– Male: 1% more D than R– Female: 16% more D than R
• In 2004:– Male: 1% more D than R– Female: 11% more D than R
– Gender Gap in voting in 2008: 11%
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Gender gap
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Obama McCain
White female White male
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Religion
• In 1992:– Committed mainline Protestant: 17% more R than D– Nominal mainline Protestant 10% more R– Committed evangelical Protestant 3% more R– Nominal evangelical Protestant 20% more D– Committed Catholic 31% more D– Nominal Catholic 28% more D– Jewish 64% more D– Non-religious 18% more D
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Religious voting
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jewish Catholic Protestant None
Obama
McCain
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Vote choice by degree of religious commitment (white protestants)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Low/medium High Very high
Obama McCain
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Party identification
• A socialized, psychological attachment to a political party
• An information processing shortcut
• An information screen
• A predictor of vote choice
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Party ID as predictor of vote choice for president
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Strong Dems Strong Reps
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Strong partisans
• More likely to vote, be informed, and participate
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Did you read a newspaper about the 2004 presidential election?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
StrongDems
WeakDems
IndleanDem
PureInd
IndleanReep
WeakReps
StrongReps
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Did you vote in the 2004 presidential election?
0102030405060708090
100
StrongDems
WeakDems
IndleanDem
PureInd
IndleanReep
WeakReps
StrongReps
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Strong partisans
• More likely to vote, be informed, and participate
Why?
• Better information processing
• Got somebody to root for
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So how should a campaign activate strong partisans?
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What do we know about independents?
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Independents
• There are fewer of them than partisans
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Partisanship
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Democrats Republicans Independents
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Independents
• There are fewer of them than partisans
• Many who say they are “independent” actually lean
• Leaners are fairly reliable party voters
• Some other “independents” are clueless
• Only about 10% of voters are true political independents
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Of the Independents…
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Party leaners True independent No preference Don't know
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Percent of party identifiers voting for their party’s presidential candidate (Dems)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Strong Dems Weak Dems Ind lean Dem
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Percent of party identifiers voting for their party’s presidential candidate (Reeps)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Ind lean Rep Weak Reps Strong Reps
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Independents
• There are fewer of them than partisans
• Many who say they are “independent” actually lean
• Leaners are fairly reliable party voters
• True attitudinal independents less likely to be informed, vote, participate
• Behavioral independents / split ticketers do determine election outcomes
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Behavioral independents, Dems
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Strong Dems Weak Dems Ind lean Dem
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Behavioral independents, Reps
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Strong Reps Weak Reps Ind lean Rep
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Other factors affecting vote choice
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Funnel of Causality
Long term, stable partisan and policy predispositions
Current policy preferences and perceptions of current conditions
Retrospective evaluations of the president concerning results
Impressions of the candidates’ personal qualities
Prospective evaluations of the candidates and parties
Vote choice
![Page 35: How do voters make decisions???. Campaigns in Voting Theories VotersRole of Campaigns IgnorantTo manipulate](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022032522/56649d6c5503460f94a4b949/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Partisanship and approval of presidential job performance
0
20
40
60
80
100
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Strong Democrat Weak Democrat Ind. Leans Democrat
Independent Ind. Leans Republican Weak Republican
Strong Republican
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Retrospective evaluations of George W. Bush and 2008 vote choice
0102030405060708090
100
Stronglyopposed
Slightlyopposed
Slightlysupport
Stronglysupport
Percent Voted for Obama
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Who among these voters should a campaign focus its energies
on?
Who should it ignore?