how advanced simulation will impact the offshore industry both now and in the future

How Advanced Simulation will

Impact the Offshore Industry

both Now and in the Future.

October 8th, 2015Altair Annual Technical Conference.

ByPaul Jukes, PhD, CEng, FIMarEST, FIMechE, FEI, FCMI

CEO & President

• Introduction – Why use Advanced Simulation?

• Technical Challenges of Offshore Industry

• Examples of Advanced Engineering and Current

Trends

• Future Trends

• Conclusion

Agenda

Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015

Introduction – Why use Advanced Simulation?


Oil & Gas Will Remain Major Energy Source

Source: EIA

Source: ExxonMobil

• Growing World Population. 7.3B to 9.7B by 2050

• Increased Energy Demands. 80% increase by 2050

• Easy Days of Exploration Over – Harsher Environments.

• Technology Challenges

• Greater Need for Advanced Engineering & Simulation.

• Sustained Low Oil Price

• Industry will be different after down turn

• Cost & Schedule

Oil Price


Trend for Deepwater

• Water depths continue to increase

• Technology Challenges.

• Greater Need for Advanced Engineering & Simulation.

Courtesy of Offshore Magazine

Technical Challenges in the Industry


Subsea Technology Areas

• Deepwater (>10,000ft) • HPHT (20KSI, 350°F) • Subsea Pumping, Power &

Distribution, Subsea Separation• Multiphase Flow & Flow Assurance • Integrity Management & Monitoring • Long Tie-backs• Arctic• CO2/CCS• Cryogenics • Pipeline Stability

Courtesy : Beneath the Crust

Courtesy : Jukes, P. (JP Kenny)

Examples of Advanced Simulation & Current Trends


Advanced Simulations for Offshore Industry


Advanced Simulations

Component Design Arctic

GeotechnicsFracture

Mechanic

Composites

CFD

Advanced Installation

Analysis

FSI

Geomechanics

Reliability/Optimization

High Pressure/High Temperature (HPHT)

• Pressure >20KSi

• Temperatures >400°F

• Wells of 500°F, 30ksi and beyond do indeed exist.

• Qualification Testing

• Seals and Materials are an issue. Polymers limited 275°F

• Global Buckling of Pipelines.

Courtesy of SLB

Courtesy of Shadravan & Amani

HP/HT Wells

Source : “Technology Forage – Puits HPHT”, Total.


Ref. Pecom 2008 Jukes et al., JP Kenny.

Ref. Global E&P Summit, 2009, Jukes, JP Kenny.

Reeling Installation Analysis

Reel-lay Installation

Courtesy : Simulia

• Model Single Pipe and Pipe-in-Pipe

• Highly Non-Linear

• All to see Pipeline Performance

• High Temperature creates High Axial Loads

• Thermal Buckle Management

• Significant Cost Savings in the Engineering

Advanced Simulation for Subsea Pipelines


Ref. ISOPE2008-TPC-297 (2008)Jukes et. al. – JP Kenny

Ref Pecom 2008 Jukes etc al., JP Kenny.

Upheaval Buckling

Source: Unknown

Courtesy : Simulia

Arctic

Arctic

• 20% unlocked Hydro Carbon Reserves

• Harsh Environment

• Limited Weather Window

• Ice Gouging

• Installation and Construction Issues

• Drilling Issues

• Subsea Pipelines and Riser Design Issues

• Ice Gouging Models

• Coupled Eulerian Lagrangian (CEL) models

• Gouges 5 m (16.5 ft) deep

• Forces 100 MN, (10,000Te) 22,500 kips

• Burial Depth = 2 ~ 3 x Scour Depth (Literature)

• Significant Cost Savings in the Engineering

Advanced Simulations for Arctic Ice Gouging


CEL Model – Ref. OMAE2009-79553

Ultra Deep Water• Water Depths >10,000 ft

• Water Depth will continue to increase

• High Hangoff Loads

• Composite Risers

• Improved Fatigue and Chemical resistance

• Fracture and Fatigue Crack Growth Analysis of Composites.

• Fracture , fatigue, delamination, debonding initiation and propagation in composite laminates.

• Buckling and Post-buckling analysis of Composite Structures.

Water Depth

10,000 ft

Ref - Whitfield, Stephen. JPT Apr 2015.Ref. Dimitri Soteropoulos et al. , “Using Abaqus to Model Delamination in Fiber Reinforced Composite Materials ” Simulia 2012 SIMULIA

Delamination of Composites under compressive Loads

• Platform Motions/VIM*

• Ship Dynamics*

• Tank Sloshing

• Slapping/Slamming

• Multiphase Flow

• Flow Induced Turbulence (FIT)

• Flow Induced Pulsation (FLIP)

• VIV of Pipelines, Riser & Jumpers.

• CFD-FEA

Advanced Simulation for Fluid Structure Interaction


Courtesy : Altair

Oil & Gas Risers

• Risers are subject to fast accumulation of

fatigue damage from Vortex Induced Vibration

– VIV predictions of arrays of multiple risers

require accurate CFD and FSI over a number

of frequencies

– Difficult to model and predict

• Significant contribution from high harmonics

– Especially important for deep water risers

– Only first mode modelled in empirical analysis

tools like SHEAR7

• Coupled DES P-FSI Simulation with Abaqus

• AcuSolve predicts all harmonic modes

AcuSolve has been successfully applied to the analysis & design of Oil & Gas Risers used

to transport hydrocarbons from the ocean floor wellhead to the floating platform /

ship:

Ref - OMAE 2009-79801 Courtesy : Altair

Mitigation of Vortex Induced Vibration

• In some cases, the oscillating fluid forces can be disrupted or mitigated

– Adding “strakes” will disrupt the vortex shedding reducing vibrations

– Wake Induced Oscillation predicted on the downstream riser

The strakes contribute to increased riser drag

which can limit production in high ocean

current regions

Also helical strakes show degraded

performance in downstream inline risers

Ref - OMAE 2009-79801

Courtesy : Altair

AcuSolve + Motionsolve Coupling• Example of Riser with Fairing in an ocean current

– Fairing rotates (windmills) about riser with friction between the riser and Fairing

WaterFlow

Courtesy : Altair

Key Technologies: Overset grids

Courtesy : Cd-Adapco

Expanding the analysis to look at the effect of a cross-sea, the ship was turned 10 degrees to the oncoming sea and released to roll, pitch and heaveThis leads to more movement of the crane tip and therefore a larger range of cable tension

Lifting Analysis

Courtesy : Cd-Adapco

Flexible Riser & Umbilical FEA Modelling

Flexible Riser Umbilical

• Pipeline/Risers Components

• Subsea System Components

• Probabilistic Design Methods

• Reliability Based Design Optimization

• Design of Experiments

Advanced Simulations for Component Design


Source : Altair Conference 2014

• Soil Structure Interaction

• Subsea Structure Foundations Design

• Anchor and Mooring Foundations

• Pipeline Crossings

• Centrifuge Testing

Advanced Simulation for Offshore Geotechnics


Ref. J. S. Templeton, III , “Finite Element Analysis in Offshore Geotechnics – A Thirty-Year Retrospective” Simulia 2012 SIMULIA Customer Conference


• Compare actual BOP shearing test with simulation• Create a database of Shearing test results• Scale model and do simulation• Reduce expensive shearing test

Shearing Drill Pipe Simulation

Ref – BSEE Technology Assessment Programs (TAP) Program


• Analyze flowing well at multiple flow rates• Range of pressures & Various ram positions• Increase in shearing force due to flow and

pressure can be simulated.

Flowing well condition

Ref – BSEE Technology Assessment Programs (TAP) Program

Courtesy : Altair

Future Trends


Computing Power


Computing power will continue to get faster & cheaper Cloud Computing will continue to open up a world of opportunities Power equivalent to the human brain

Power of Human Brain by 2023

Creating a Great Engineering Solution

‘Added-value’

Cost Savings

Effective

Solution

Optimised

Design

+ + =

Novel IdeasYears of

Experience

Advanced

Simulation

Path

Dependent

Highly

Non-linear

Highly

Qualified

Range of

Backgrounds

Lateral

Thinking

Original

Ideas

COMPETENCY

ADVANCED

NUMERICAL

TOOLS

INNOVATIONENGINEERING

SOLUTION

Courtesy : Jukes, P. (JP Kenny)

Increased Computer Power


• The Kurzweil Curve

2050

2023

2010

2001

• Safety is number one Core Value in Oil & Gas Industry

Simulation


Ref: Maersk Training Simulator

Model Complete System


• Ability to Model the Complete System

• Included all types of Non-linearity

• Run Quickly (few hours not days or weeks)

• Better estimate of Loads

• ‘The Prize’ = Significant Cost Saving in the Engineering

Technical challenges in Oil & Gas industry will continue (e.g.

HPHT, UDW and Arctic).

Use of advanced numerical analysis and simulation allows cost

effective solutions especially during low oil price.

Mid term outlook is good for Advanced Simulation – pressure

to reduce costs, improve software, cheaper hardware

(particularly cloud solutions), and greater acceptance of

Advanced Simulations.

Advanced Simulation offers a World of exciting Opportunities.

Conclusions


Thank You!Any Questions?


How Advanced Simulation will

Impact the Offshore Industry

both Now and in the Future.

October 8th, 2015Altair Annual Technical Conference.

ByPaul Jukes, PhD, CEng, FIMarEST, FIMechE, FEI, FCMI

CEO & President