how a research response takes time to build whiplash michele sterling achrf 2012
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7/17/2019 How a Research Response Takes Time to Build Whiplash Michele Sterling ACHRF 2012
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Michele Sterling
BPhty, MPhty, Grad Dip Manip Physio, FACP, PhD
NHMRC Senior Research FellowAssociate Director, CONROD, UQ
How a research response takes
time to build – research ofwhiplash
7/17/2019 How a Research Response Takes Time to Build Whiplash Michele Sterling ACHRF 2012
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Whiplash: The Problem
• Poor health outcomes
• Personal and economic costs
• Clinically – difficult to effectively treat
• Other factors: environmental; sociocultural
WHIPLASH
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2001........
QTF (1995):• Need more research
Clinical Guidelines (MAA, NSW)
• Mostly consensus based
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Whiplash: Where to Start ?
• What is the recovery pathway like?
• What processes underlie WAD ?
• What is different about those who recover
and those who don’t?
• Can we predict those who will not recover?
• Does current treatment work?
• Can we develop better treatments?
CAN we improve health outcomes and…….reduce costs?
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Sterling, Hendrikz, Kenardy 2010 Pain 150:22-28
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13Month
P r e d i c t e d N D I
Mild (45%)
Moderate 39%)
Chronic severe (16%)
Predicted disability trajectories & predicted probability of membership (%).
N=155
Group basedtrajectory
modeling
Recovery Pathways
2-3 months
important
Mild/recovered
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Processes underlying WAD
• Why bother looking? Isn’t it just neck pain? “Its just a minor injury”
• Physical and psychological
– Nociceptive (pain) processing
– PTSD symptoms and stress responses
– Motor/movement deficits
– Psychological factors – Recovery expectations
– Perceived injustice
– Pain catastrophising
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WHIPLASH
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Different mechanisms seem to underliedifferent neck pain conditions
100
200
300
400
500
600
C2-3 C5-6 mediannerve
radialnerve
ulnarnerve
tibialisanterior
P r e s s u r e ( k P a )
Pressure Pain Thresholds Cold Pain Thresholds
0
5
10
15
20
25
cervical spine deltoid tibialis anterior
T e m p e r a t u r e ( ° C )
Sc o tt, Jull, Ste rling 2005 C lin J Pa in (21) :175-181
Elliott et a l Clinic a l Ra d iolog y 2008
Ch ien, Elia v, Sterling 2009 M a nua l The ra p y
Chronic WAD; NDI 44(12)%
Chronic Idiopathic; NDI 29(16)%
Controls
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Sensory features predict poor functionalrecovery following whiplash injury
C h a n g e N P Q
Treatment group baselines 33.8±13.3 41.0±14.1 42.3±14.4
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
<1 2 3 6
k P a
Control
Recovered NDI <8%
Milder pain NDI 9-29%Moderate to severe pain NDI 30>%
C5/6, C2/3, Upper limb nerve trunks
Tibialis Anterior
PPT
Sterling et al (2003) Pain 104:509-517
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
<1 2 3 6
d e g r e e s
c e l s i u s
Cold pain
Threshold
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Spinal cord hyperexcitability
msec
Electrical stimulation
EMG biceps femoris
Sterling, Curatolo et al (2008) C lin J Pa in
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
WAD Control
m A
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Van Oosterwijck J et al, Europ J Pain 2012
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Trajectories: PTSD symptoms
Predicted PDS trajector ies with 95% confidence limits
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13Month
P r e d i c t e d
P D S
Mild PDS (40%) Recovering (43%) Chronic mod-severe (17%)Resilient
Severe
Mod/severe
Moderate
Sterling, Hendrikz, Kenardy 2010 Pain 150:22-28
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Criteria met for probable PTSD diagnosis
(PDS)
Longitudinal cohort:
3 months: 22.3% (n=35)
12 months: 17.1% (n= 27)
Sterling, Hendrikz, Kenardy
2010 Pain 150: 22-28
Chronic WAD sample:
33/72: 45.8% PTSD
Dunne, Sterling, Kenardy 2012
Clin J Pain (in press)
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WHIPLASH
Nociceptive
processing
PTSD symptoms
Other
psychological
factors
Movement/motor
deficits
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Processes: Where to from here?
Pain processing mechanisms
• fMRI studies
• Exploration of descendingpain modulation
Psychological processes
• Beliefs and expectations
Nerve tissue changes
• MRI Studies spinal cord
Inflammatory biomarkers
Stress system responses• Heart Rate Variability•COMT gene variation• Cortisol
Relationships betweenphysical & psychologicalfactors
• Modulation of PTSD and
effect on pain
• Modulation of pain andeffect on psychpresentation
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Can we predict those who don’trecover?
Most consistent predictors:• Initial pain intensity
• Initial disability levels
• most have been phase 1 (exploratory) studies
Phase 1 study (2000-2004) (Sterling et al, Pain, 2005, 2006)
– Initial disability levels – Decreased neck movement
– Cold hyperalgesia
– PTSD symptoms - IES
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Validation of PredictorsPhase 3 Study:
• Multicentre international cohort study –Brisbane,Melbourne, Montreal, Reykjavik
• n=286• Discrimination analysis• Between no/mild disability vs moderate/severe disability
Predicted
NDI 12
months
Area under
curve ROC
Std error Significance 95% CI
Originalmodel
0.85 0.029 < 0.001 0.79 – 0.91
Validation
model
0.89 0.024 < 0.001 0.84 – 0.94
Sterling, Hendrikz, et al (2012) Pain 153: 1727-1734
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• Initial pain• Initial disability• Cold hyperalgesia
• Neck movement• Psychological factors• PTSD symptoms• Recovery expectations• Depression
• Pain catastrophising
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WHIPLASH
Nociceptive
processing
PTSD symptoms
Other
psychological
factors
Movement/motor
deficits
Pain levelsDisability levels
Cold hyperalgesia
PTSD symptoms
Other factors
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Does current treatment work?
• Strongest evidence for activity/exercise ~ acute and chronic WAD ~ but
effects are modest
• Insufficient evidence to support any treatment for sub-acute WAD
• Chronic WAD – Modest effects at best with rehabilitation (Jull et al 2007,
Stewart et al 2007)
- RFN
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• Those with sensory hypersensitivity don’t do wellwith standard rehabilitation.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Total group No sensory mechanical
hperalgesia
Mechanical &
cold
hyperalgesia
C h a n g e N P Q
Treatment group baselines 33.8±13.3 41.0±14.1 42.3±14.4Jull, Sterling (2007) Pain
• RCT in chronic WAD
• Exercise
program/manual
therapy vs Act as
Usual
• 10 weeks treatment
• pre – post follow-upExercise
Information booklet/act as usual
WHY not?
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0
5
10
15
20
25
Pre Post 6mo
WL
TREAT
20
25
30
35
40
45
Pre Post 6mo
WL
TREAT
PTSD symptoms - PDS Pain related disability - NDI
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Pain
management
Delayed MT +
ThEx
c) NDI >30 +
hyperalgesia
Adjuvant
agents
c) NDI >30 +
Neuropathic
pain
CBTb) GHQ28
>30
Add
proprioceptive
retaining
b) Reduced
kinaesthesia
Opioid
Analgesia
b) NDI >30 +
Hyperalgesia
CBTa) IES >26MT + Th Exa) No
hyperalgesia
Simple
Analgesia
a) NDI <30
PsychologyPhysiotherapymedication
(111)(11)(1)
Management of acute whiplash: A randomized controlledtrial of multidisciplinary stratified treatments
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
100
Baseline 11 weeks 6 months 12 months
F r e q u e n c y %
Recovery NDI <8%
Pragma tic care
Usual care
Management of acute whiplash: A randomizedcontrolled trial of multidisciplinary stratified
treatments
Jull, Sterling, Kenardy, Hendrikz,
Cohen, 2012, under review
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Ongoing Trials
• RCT of exercise in chronic WAD (Brisbane &Sydney) NHMRC, MAIC, MAA
• RCT of dry needling & exercise for chronicWAD (address sensoryhypersensitivity)NHMRC, MAIC, MAA
• RCT – physios addressing stress responses foracute WAD (seek funding)
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Trials in development
RCT : pre-treating PTSD followed by physioexercise for chronic WAD
RCT: medication trials.• Propranolol for acute WAD (MS advisor for USA
trial)
• Early pain relief, modulation of CNShyperexcitability
Internet delivered interventions
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WHIPLASHNociceptive
processing
PTSD symptoms
Other
psychologicalfactors
Movement/motor
deficits
Pain levelsDisability levels
Cold hyperalgesia
PTSD symptoms
Other factors
Physical
Rehabilitation Psych interventioMedications
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Translational Activities
Clinician focussed translation:
Clinical guidelines for WAD
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Translational ActivitiesClinician focussed translation: Clinical Measures of
Predictors
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NDI
>40<30 31-39
>6
HyperarousalAGE
Age
>35
<35 >35
<6<35
>4031-39<30
Predicted:Chronic/Severe
Predicted:
Recovery
Neither recovered nor
chronic/severe
Clinical Screening Tool
Predicted Chronicity
Sensitivity Specificity +LR PPV
Presence
of all 3
factors
.435 (.31-
.55)
.938 (.89-
.96)
7.02 (3.81-
12.94)
71.4 (55-
84)
Predicted Recovery
Sensitivity Specificity +LR PPV
NDI <30 and
age <35
.483 (.39-
.57)
.832 (.76-
.88)
2.87 (1.91-
4.33)
70.7 (59-80)
Ritchie et al , under review
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Translational Activities
Consumer focussed translation:
http://www.som.uq.edu.au/whiplash
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Whiplash Research Group
Dr Carrie Ritchie
Dr Rachael Dunne
Ash Pedler
Andrew Popple
Andrew StoneHelena Motlagh
Amanda Sumner
Sam Maxwell
Ashley Smith
Tze Siong
Gail Durbridge