housing trends report
TRANSCRIPT
The Housing Trends Report (HTR)measures prospective home buyers’perceptions about the availability andaffordability of homes for-sale in theirmarkets.
All data are derived from national pollsof representative samples of Americanadults conducted for NAHB by MorningConsult. This report will be releasedquarterly to track changes in buyers’perceptions over time.
Planning to Buy Home Within 12 Months
14% of respondents are prospective home buyers, i.e. they are planning to buy a
home within 12 months. In Qtr4’17, that share stood at 24%.
24%
17%14%
Qtr4'17 Qtr1'18 Qtr2'18
Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.
This report is based entirely on prospective home buyers: those planning to buy a home within the next 12 months.
22%
14%
8%
3%
Millennials Gen X Boomers Seniors
In Qtr2’18, Millennials are significantly more likely than any
other generation to report planning a home purchase in the
next year (22%). Qtr2’18
Share Who are First-time Home Buyers
Most (61%) prospective home buyers are first-time buyers, back
to the same level as in Qtr4’17 (60%).
Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.
60%
45%
61%
Qtr4'17 Qtr1'18 Qtr2'18
In Qtr2’18, 77% of Millennials planning a home purchase within
a year are 1st time buyers.
77%
49%
34%
Millennials Gen X Boomers
Qtr2’18
Only 21% Are Looking to Buy a Newly Built Home
• 39% of prospective home buyers in Qtr2’18 say they are looking for an existing home
• 21% are looking for a newly built home• 40% are looking at both.
Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.
Around 40% of each generation is looking for an existing home. Only 20%-24% are considering a newly
built home.
39%
21%
40%
Existing home Newly builthome
Either New orExisting
20%24%
21%
38%41%
38%
Millennials Gen X Boomers
New Existing
Qtr2’18
Most Don’t Expect House Search to Get Easier
Only 20% of prospective home buyers expect that finding the ‘right’ home will become easier in the months ahead, up slightly from 15% in Qtr1’18.
69% expect the search to become harder or stay about the same, just below the 73% in Qtr1’18.
Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.
27%
65%
15%
73%
20%
69%
Easier Harder / About the same
Qtr4'17 Qtr1'18 Qtr2'18
Share expecting search to get easier in the months ahead is below 25%
across each generation.
22%18% 17%
Millennials Gen X Boomers
Qtr2’18
Most Don’t See Improvement in Inventory
Most prospective home buyers (63%) report seeing ‘fewer’ or ‘same number’ of homes for-sale (with desired features and price point) than 3 months
earlier.
Only 29% report seeing ‘more’ such homes available for-sale.
Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.
More than 60% of each generation report ‘fewer’ or ‘the same’ number of homes for-sale (with right features and
price) vs. 3 months earlier.
34%
58%
24%
64%
29%
63%
More homes Fewer or about the samehomes
Qtr4'17 Qtr1'18 Qtr2'18
61% 62% 65%
Millennials Gen X Boomers
Qtr2’18
Only a Minority Can Afford the Majority of Homes For-Sale
Only 22% of prospective buyers say they can afford half or more of the homes for-sale in
their markets, up slightly from 17% in Qtr1’18.
77% can afford fewer than half the homes available, down from 83% in Qtr1’18.
Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.
80% of Millennials can afford < 50% of the homes available in their
markets. The share remains high across generations.
79%
21%
83%
17%
77%
22%
Can afford fewer than 1/2the homes for-sale
Can afford 1/2 or more ofthe homes for-sale
Qtr4'17 Qtr1'18 Qtr2'18
80%74% 73%
Millennials Gen X Boomers
Qtr2’18
Many Aren’t Merely Planning a Home Purchase; They Are Actively Looking for One
49% of prospective buyers say they are already actively trying to find a
home to buy (and not just planning it), up from 42% in Qtr1’18 (but still below
the 67% in Qtr4’17).
Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.
About half of Millennials and Gen X’ers planning to buy a home within 12 months are already active in the
search.
67%
42%49%
Qtr4'17 Qtr1'18 Qtr2'18
51% 49% 46%
Millennials Gen X Boomers
Qtr2’18
Most Active Buyers Have Been Looking for 3+ Months
53% of those already actively looking for a home have been searching for 3+ months, essentially unchanged from the 51% who reported looking for that long in Qtr1’18.
Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.
59% of Gen X buyers actively searching for a home have
been looking for 3+ months, just like 53% of Millennials and
48% of Boomers.
38%
62%
49% 51%47%
53%
< 3 months 3 months or more
Qtr4'17 Qtr1'18 Qtr2'18
53%59%
48%
Millennials Gen X Boomers
Qtr2’18
If Unable to Buy Home in 3+ months, Why?
Top 2 reasons holdingbuyers back:
• Inability to find a home with desired features (45%).
• Inability to find affordable home (43%).
Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.
Across generations, the inability to find a home with desired features
is the reason at least 40% of buyers looking for 3+ months haven’t
pulled the trigger.
42%34% 36%
27%
53%43% 39%
16%
43% 41% 45%
24%
Can't find a home at aprice I can afford
Can't find a home in theneigborhood I want
Can't find home withfeatures I want
Continue to get outbidwhenever I make an
offer
Qtr4'17 Qtr1'18 Qtr2'18
46%40%
47%
Millennials Gen X Boomers
Qtr2’18
Most Likely Next Steps If Still Unable to Find Home in Months Ahead
If still unable to find a home in the next few months, most buyers (55%) say they will continue looking for the ‘right’ home
in the same preferred location.
Only 16% will give up trying.
Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.
16%
19%
24%
34%
55%
Give up trying to find a homeuntil next year or later
Buy a more expensive homethan origianlly intended
Accept a smaller/older homethan originally intended
Expand my search area
Continue looking until the ‘right’ home opens up in a
preferred location
Most likely next steps among Millennials:• 54% will continue looking in same area• 36% will expand search area• 26% will accept a smaller/older home• 23% will buy a more expensive home• 19% will give up Qtr2’18
Poll Design
• The Housing Trends Report is based on quarterly polls conducted for NAHB by the research firm Morning Consult.
• Polls are based on a national sample of adults selected to proportionately represent the US adult population in terms of age, gender, region, race/ethnicity, and income.
• Table below shows sample size and dates of data collection.
Qtr4’17 Qtr1’18 Qtr2’18
Sample size 2,800 11,674 15,412
Collection Period November 16-19, 2017
March 28 – April 1, 2018
June 26 – July 8, 2018