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Housing Needs Study 2012-based SNPP Update Pendle Borough Council Housing Update

15 September 2014

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Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners 3rd Floor One St James's Square Manchester M2 6DN nlpplanning.com

This document is formatted for double sided printing. © Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd 2014. Trading as Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners. All Rights Reserved. Registered Office: 14 Regent's Wharf All Saints Street London N1 9RL All plans within this document produced by NLP are based upon Ordnance Survey mapping with the permission of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. © Crown Copyright reserved. Licence number AL50684A

Housing Needs Study 2012-based SNPP Update : Pendle Borough Council

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Contents

1.0 Introduction 1

Background to the Study .................................................................................. 1

2.0 Factors Underpinning Population Change 4

Introduction ...................................................................................................... 4

Population Change .......................................................................................... 4

3.0 The Housing Market 10

Burnley and Pendle Housing Market Area ...................................................... 10

Housing Market Signals ................................................................................. 12

Housing Market Indicators ............................................................................. 13

Synthesis of Market Signals ........................................................................... 20

4.0 Updates to the PopGroup Baseline Model Run 27

Introduction .................................................................................................... 27

Scenarios – Assumptions and Approach ........................................................ 29

Modelling Results ........................................................................................... 31

Summary ....................................................................................................... 36

5.0 Discussion 38

Introduction .................................................................................................... 38

Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 43


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Appendices

Appendix 1 Inputs and Assumptions

Appendix 2 PopGroup Summary

Appendix 3 PopGroup Modelling Outputs


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1.0 Introduction

Background to the Study

1.1 Nathaniel Lichfield and Partners [NLP] produced a Strategic Housing Market

Assessment [SHMA] on behalf of the two local authorities of Burnley Borough

Council [BBC] and Pendle Borough Council [PBC] in December 2013. The

identification of objectively assessed need [OAN] for housing was at the heart

of the study, based upon a range of housing, economic and demographic

factors, trends and forecasts. This sought to provide the Councils with

evidence on the future housing need of their districts to help them plan for

future growth and make informed policy choices on the level of housing

requirement through the development plan preparation process.

1.2 Taking into account 11 main scenarios and a number of sensitivity tests

modelled through NLP’s HEaDROOM1 housing framework, the analysis

recommended an OAN housing requirement of between 280-320 dpa in

Pendle Borough over the 19-year plan period (2011-2030).

1.3 In defining the housing OAN range, reference was made to the Practice

Guidance (March 2014), which clarifies how the Framework should be

interpreted and applied. It confirms that an assessment of need must fulfil the

following criteria:

1 Based on facts and unbiased evidence, plan makers should not apply

constraints to the overall assessment of need;

2 Up-to-date household projections published by the CLG should provide

the starting point estimate of overall housing need; and,

3 The housing need number suggested by household projections (the

starting point) should be adjusted to reflect local demographic factors and

employment trends as well as appropriate market signals including

market indicators of the balance between the demand for and supply of

dwellings.

1.4 The approach taken to setting housing requirements must therefore be

grounded in the background evidence of ‘need’ within an area, and this

evidence must be sound and robust to inform the strategy making process,

which will identify the housing ‘requirement’.

1.5 Following the submission of the SHMA, the demographic data which

underpinned NLP’s modelling work was updated by ONS. This new data, the

2012-based Sub-National Population Projections [SNPP], was published by

ONS on 29th May 2014. It replaces2 the 2011-based (interim) SNPP

equivalents (published in September 2013). The latest projections are based

on the 2012 mid-year population estimates published in June 2013 (which are

1 HEaDROOM is NLP’s bespoke framework for identifying locally generated housing requirements based upon an analysis of

the housing, economic and demographic factors within an area. 2 ONS (29 May 2014): 2012-based Subnational Population Projections for England: Statistical Bulletin page 1


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themselves rolled forward from the 2011 mid-year population estimates and

ultimately the 2011 Census) and a set of underlying demographic assumptions

regarding fertility, mortality and migration, based on local trends.

1.6 As with previous projections, the 2012-based SNPP are not forecasts and do

not attempt to predict the impact that future government or local policies,

changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic

behaviour3. However, unlike the 2008-based and 2010-based SNPPs, the

trends for the 2012-based projections are able to fully take into account

information from the 2011 Census.

1.7 The data is also considered to be more robust than its immediate predecessor,

the 2011-based (interim) SNPP, as the latter assumed a continuation of the

estimated trends in fertility, mortality and migration as used in the 2010-based

SNPP. The trends from the 2010-based projections were used because a

revised historic data series was not available to update the assumptions.

1.8 As described in the user guidance section of the ONS’s 2011-based SNPP

Statistical Bulletin (2012), the robustness of the data was limited because4:

1 The fertility rates used to set the assumptions are based on birth

registrations and population estimates up to 2010. However, population

estimates for women of childbearing age were too low over the decade to

mid-2010, as the 2011 Census showed more women aged 16 to 44 than

estimates rolled forward from the 2001 Census. This means the fertility

rates used to set the 2010-based SNPP assumptions were too high,

leading to an over-projection of births at the national level.

2 There was a similar issue with the mortality rates, since the number of

older people (who are most affected by mortality rates), was estimated to

be lower in the 2011 mid-year estimates than in the estimates rolled

forward from the 2001 Census. The impact was not as great for deaths

as for births, but it also resulted in a projected increase in the population.

3 Differences in the age structure at local authority level also resulted in

changes to projected levels of internal migration. This is because

migration rates based on historic trend data were applied to the new

population base. Where the size and structure of the new population

base in a local authority was very different from the 2010-based

projections for 2011, particularly at ages most likely to migrate, the

applied migration rate over or under-estimated the number of people

moving from an area.

1.9 As such, the ability of the 2012-based SNPP to incorporate not only the 2011

Census, but also updated demographic assumptions concerning fertility,

mortality and migration, makes it significantly more robust for the purposes of

demographic modelling.

3 Ibid, page 2

4 ONS (28 September 2012): Interim 2011-based SNPP for England, pages 2-3


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1.10 In this regard, they can be considered to provide the best estimates of

the future population of English regions and local authorities currently

available.

1.11 This supporting statement tests the ongoing validity of the housing

requirements identified in the original SHMA in the light of the 2012-based

SNPP. This will ensure that the evidence base upon which the Council’s Local

Plan is to be founded is as robust as possible moving forward to their EiP.

1.12 This report does not seek to replicate the contextual or affordable housing

analysis undertaken in the SHMA, but instead focuses on the following:

1 An analysis of the latest demographic and population releases for the

Borough, specifically the 2012-based SNPP, and how these forecasts

compare with the data underpinning the SHMA;

2 An update in the light of the Practice Guidance and specifically an

appraisal of the Housing Market Signals relevant to the Burnley and

Pendle HMA and whether the housing need should be adjusted as a

result;

3 Remodelling the 11 scenarios (and accompanying sensitivities) using the

data within the 2012-based SNPP; and,

4 An overview exploring the reasons behind any significant changes to the

forecasts and the extent to which the previous forecasts underpinning the

recommended OAN for housing in the borough remain valid.

1.13 This report addresses the OAN in Pendle but also takes into account the

situation in Burnley in order to consider the whole of the HMA.


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2.0 Factors Underpinning Population Change

Introduction

2.1 This section provides an overview and comparison of the 2008 / 2010 / 2011

and 2012-based SNPP datasets ahead of a re-run of the PopGroup modelling

work to examine any practical differences that could impact upon the housing

requirements of Burnley and Pendle.

2.2 In deriving the SNPP, the projected local authority population for each year is

initially calculated by adding on the population for the previous year, applying

assumed local fertility and mortality rates to calculate the number of projected

births and deaths, and then adjusting for migration into and out of each local

authority. Local authority-assumed levels of fertility, mortality and migration

are derived from observed values during the previous five years (six years for

international migration) and are constrained to the assumptions made in the

2012-based national projections. Finally, the SNPPs are constrained to the

national population projections for England5.

2.3 Essentially then, the 2012-based SNPP is based predominantly on the last five

years’ population estimates and components of population change for each

local authority. If an area was/is experiencing a change in its estimates of

population during the trend period, this might not be fully reflected in the

assumptions being used for future years as the five-year averaging process

has a dampening effect on such changes6.

Population Change

2.4 It might be expected that the various population projections would be different

due to the differing inputs and timeframes used. However, substantive

differences may be due to the following:

1 Changes in the population estimate used as the base year;

2 Changes in the trends (births, deaths and migration); and,

3 Changes in assumptions for international migration at a national level7.

2.5 Table 2.1 sets out the 2011 Mid-Year population estimates for Pendle

Borough, rolled forward from the 2011 Census. This indicates that the ONS

considered that Pendle’s resident population would experience limited growth

between 2001 and 2011, at 1% (490 additional residents) whereas the 2011

Census results indicated even lower levels of growth (299 additional residents).

5 2012-based SNPP for England Statistical Bulletin 29 May 2012 page 12

6 Ibid

7 ONS Questions and Answers: 2012-based Subnational Population Projections page 5 29th May 2014


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Table 2.1 Changes in population estimates – 2011

Resident Population

Mid 2001 Census-based

(official)

Mid 2011 rolled forward estimate

Mid-2011 Census-based

(official) estimate

Difference between 2011

MYE and Census

Pendle Borough 89,277 89,767 89,576 191

Source: ONS Components of difference underlying the revised mid-2002 to mid-2010 population estimates (30th April 2013)

2.6 The implications of this over estimation of Pendle’s population are clearly

indicated in Figure 2.1. Figure 2.1 presents the trajectory of population growth

in Pendle Borough derived from the 2008/2010/2011 and 2012-based SNPPs.

2.7 Figure 2.1 shows that for Pendle all four projections indicate a growth in

population although the 2010-based and (interim) 2011-based projections

project a faster rate of growth resulting in 100,200 persons (2010-based) in

2030 compared to 94,100 persons (2008-based). The 2008-based projections

are broadly aligned with the 2012-based projections and indicate a similar rate

of growth and comparable population size in 2030 of 94,100 persons and

93,500 persons, respectively.

2.8 The projected growth in the 2011-based SNPP, of 5,500 residents between

2012 and 2021, is more than double the level of growth projected by the latest

2012-based SNPP (+2,400 residents 2012 to 2021) despite starting from a

similar base.

Figure 2.1 Comparison ONS 2008/2010/2011/2012 based SNPPs for Pendle Borough

Source: NLP Analysis


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Table 2.2 Comparison of Population Projections

2008-Based SNPP

2010-Based SNPP

2011-Based SNPP (Interim)

2012-Based SNPP

Pendle 2012 89,800 91,300 90,100 89,600

2021 92,300 96,500 95,100 92,000

2031 94,300 100,500 - 93,600

Dif 2012-21 +2,500 +5,200 5,000 +2,400

Dif 2012-31 +4,500 +9,200 - +4,000

Source: ONS 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012-based SNPPs

2.9 As the 2008/2011 SNPPs informed the CLG’s 2008/2011-based household

projections, and also much of the modelling informing the 2013 SHMA for the

borough, it is clear that this will have consequences for the revised housing

modelling work.

2.10 Figure 2.2 presents population ‘trees’, comparing the age profile of Pendle in

2012 and 2030 using the data within the 2010-based SNPP and the 2012-

based SNPP. Pendle has similar numbers of the population in the age cohorts

from 0 years to 29. There is a distinct inversion in the population trees for age

cohorts between 30 and 39. These age cohorts make up a key part of the core

workforce in the population as well as consisting of females of child bearing

age.

Figure 2.2 Pendle Population by Age Cohort and Sex 2012 and 2030

Source: NLP Analysis / ONS 2010/2012-based SNPP

2.11 For the purposes of the modelling work, it is clear that for Pendle, the earlier

projections under-estimated the number of both men and women in the 30-39

age cohorts, with the difference becoming slightly more pronounced by 2030.

2.12 For Pendle the earlier projections over-estimated the number of children aged

0-4. In addition the older population (75+) was broadly the same within both


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sets of projections. A further discrepancy exists within the male population,

aged 20-29, which was over-estimated by the earlier projections.

Components of Change

2.13 An analysis of the four most recent comparable SNPPs for Pendle (Table 2.3)

illustrates differences in the components of change contributing to the

population projections. This is in addition to the considerable differences in the

absolute population projections illustrated in Figure 2.1.

Table 2.3 Pendle Population Projections: Components of Change

2013-2021 Annual Average Change

2008-Based SNPP

2010-Based SNPP

2011-Based SNPP

(Interim)

2012-Based SNPP

Births 1,267 1,478 1,456 1,300

Deaths 800 800 800 800

Natural Change 489 678 667 500

Domestic Migration In 3,400 3,289 3,289 3,000

Domestic Migration Out 3,600 3,700 3,678 3,500

International Migration In 200 500 500 400

International Migration Out 300 200 300 200

Net Annual Average -200 -78 -100 -233

Source: ONS 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012-based SNPPs

Note: figures do not sum due to rounding errors

2.14 Natural change is consistent within the 2008-based and 2012-based

projections and births are much lower in these projections than within the

2010-based and (interim) 2011-based projections which are also similar. The

2012-based projections estimate 167 fewer births per annum than the (interim)

2011-based projections. However, there is no change in the number of deaths

per annum across all four projections estimating an identical number (800).

2.15 Domestic inward migration is between 1.2% and 0.9% lower than had

previously been forecast in relation to the 2008 and 2011-based projections,

respectively. Domestic inward migration is lower than the (interim) 2011-based

projections by 289 movements per annum. This contributes to lower levels of

population growth.

2.16 Comparing the migration estimates from the historic SNPPs is highly

problematic, as the methodologies altered significantly over time. For

example:

1 The 2008-based SNPP used a different methodology for the distribution

of internal and international migration than previous sets of projections as

they incorporate further developments of the Migration Statistics

Improvement Programme;

2 The 2010-based SNPP used a different methodology for the distribution

of international in-migrants, which in turn affected estimates of out-

migrants, and also improvements to internal migration of students; and,

3 The interim 2011-based SNPP used the mid-2011 population estimates

rolled forward from the 2011 Census results as the base, but the


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assumptions made on future migration trends were the same as those

used in the 2010-based SNPP8.

2.17 Whilst the 2012-based SNPP methodological approach to migration may be

seen as being statistically sound, in that it uses the most up-to-date data that is

internally consistent, it is important to note that much of the background trend

data covers a period of time (2007/8 to 2011/12 for internal migration and

2006/07 to 2011/12 for international migration) affected by the recession and

unprecedented economic downturn. ONS evidence9 suggests that the level of

internal migration within the UK and net international migration into the UK

reduced during the recession, and it is possible that this trend-based evidence

may have suppressed future estimates of migration to/from the borough.

Summary

2.18 In summary:

1 It is clear that the latest 2012-based SNPP are significantly lower than

the previous 2011 and 2010- based equivalents and slightly lower than

the 2008-based projections. For example, over the nine-year period to

2021, the latest projections are around 48% lower than the 2011-based

(interim) SNPP for Pendle.

2 The key reason for the disparity appears to be a combination of a lower

birth rate than previously expected coupled with a stable mortality rate as

well as lower levels of inward migration than projected. The latest set of

projections indicates that domestic inward migration is likely to be lower

by 289 per annum between 2013 and 2021 than was initially envisaged.

It is likely that this reflects the lower level of migratory movements to and

from the Borough due to the recession and subsequent economic

downturn, which has been reflected in the trend-based modelling data.

3 These factors will have significant impacts on the PopGroup10

demographic modelling work, as the household forecasts will be based

upon a lower level of population growth. It is probable that the resultant

demographic scenarios, which otherwise incorporate similar assumptions

to the 2013 SHMA modelling work, will be much lower than before.

4 If the demographic modelling results from the 2012-based SNPP update

are lower than the 2011-based household projections, this presents a

quandary. The Government’s Practice Guidance is clear that the latest

household projections should provide the ‘starting point’ for identifying

objectively assessed housing need. If there is a worsening trend in any

of the housing market indicators relative to other comparable areas or

nationally, then an upward adjustment should be made to planned

housing numbers compared to ones based solely on household

projections.

8 ONS SNPP Quality and Methodology Information 25th September 2012

9 ONS (July 2011): News Release: New Evidence shows how the recession is hitting UK households

10 PopGroup is a family of software developed to forecast population, household and labour force for areas and social groups.

Users develop alternative assumptions as scenarios. See Appendix 3 of the 2013 SHMA for a more detailed explanation.


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5 Reconciling the lower demographic projections based on the 2012-based

SNPP with the higher CLG (interim) 2011-based household projections

(which are now based on a superseded set of population projections) will

therefore be a key issue to resolve for Pendle when defining the revised

housing OAN ranges.


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3.0 The Housing Market

Burnley and Pendle Housing Market Area

3.1 The Localism Act 2011 includes the statutory duty to cooperate on strategic

planning for cross-boundary issues, and this requirement is reiterated in The

Framework in terms of addressing housing figures and job growth. In

particular, The Framework states:

“…LPAs should: use their evidence base to ensure that their Local Plan

meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable

housing in the housing market area.” [§159]

3.2 The CLG’s guidance note ‘Identifying sub-regional housing market areas’

(March 2007) was revoked in March 2014. However, in the absence of any

replacement detailed guidance, it provides the only reasonable basis for

defining HMAs. In this context, it notes that:

1 HMAs are inherently difficult to define. They are a geographic

representation of people’s choices and preferences on the location of

their home, accounting for live and work patterns. They can be defined

at varying geographical scales from the national scale to sub-regional

scale, down to local and settlement specific scales.

2 HMAs are not definitive. As well as a spatial hierarchy of different

markets and sub-markets, they will inevitably overlap. However, CLG

provides some advice in this regard.

3.3 The former CLG Guidance recommends that a measure of migration flow

patterns can identify the geographical relationships of where people move

house within an area with a 70% containment rate of migratory activity typically

representing a HMA. In particular:

“The typical threshold for self-containment is around 70 per cent of all

movers in a given time period. This threshold applies to both the supply

side (70 per cent of all those moving out of a dwelling move within that

same area) and the demand side (70 per cent of all those moving into a

dwelling have moved from that same area). Some areas may be

relatively more or less self-contained, and it may be desirable to explore

different thresholds.” [page 10]

3.4 This level of self-containment is also recommended in the Practice Guidance

(March 2014). This provides some guidance on defining HMAs including

consideration of household migration and search patterns. The Practice

Guidance states:

“Migration flows and housing search patterns reflect preferences and the

trade-offs made when choosing housing with different characteristics.

Analysis of migration flow patterns can help to identify these relationships

and the extent to which people move house within an area. The findings

can identify the areas within which a relatively high proportion of


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household moves (typically 70 per cent) are contained. This excludes

long distance moves (e.g. those due to a change of lifestyle or

retirement), reflecting the fact that most people move relatively short

distances due to connections to families, friends, jobs, and schools.”

[§2a-011-20140306]

3.5 NLPs analysis confirms that Burnley and Pendle HMA has a high level of self-

containment, in excess of 70%. Including long distance moves, self-

containment is 78.5% for all outward migration flows and 82.4% for all inward

migration flows.

3.6 In addition, data from the 2013 household needs survey indicated that around

11% of households currently living in Burnley/Pendle (equal to 8,400 of all

households in the two Boroughs) had moved home at least once in the

preceding 5 years. Of these households, 77.6% originated within Burnley or

Pendle.

Figure 3.1 Commuting Flows

Source: Census 2001 / NLP Analysis

3.7 Figure 3.1 illustrates commuting flows between Burnley, Pendle and nearby

local authorities. It is clearly evident that the strongest relationships exist

between Burnley and Pendle.

3.8 Previous HMA work undertaken by Nevin Leather Associates (March 2008)

and published by the NWRA identified housing markets in East Lancashire and

concluded that Burnley and Pendle combined to make a distinct and separate

market area.

3.9 A CLG study of HMAs was published in 2010 and considered the extent of

HMAs at various levels across England. Figure 3.2 presents the HMA

boundaries as defined in the CLG publication ‘Geography of HMAs: Final

Report’ (November 2010), mapped against the Local Authority Boundaries of

Burnley and Pendle. This indicates that the two Boroughs of Pendle and

Burnley are broadly approximate to the ‘Burnley’ and ‘Nelson’ HMAs.


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Figure 3.2 Local HMAs

Source: NLP / CLG

3.10 The analysis of commuting and migration flows as well as data collected as

part of the HNS in 2013 and other HMA studies plainly indicate that

Burnley/Pendle Boroughs operate as a clearly defined and self-contained

Housing Market Area.

Housing Market Signals

3.11 The Practice Guidance indicates that once an assessment of need based upon

household projections is established, this should be adjusted to reflect

appropriate market signals and indicators of the balance between the demand

for and supply of housing.

3.12 The Guidance explicitly sets out six market signals [§2a-019-20140306]:

1 land prices;

2 house prices;

3 rents;

4 affordability;

5 rate of development; and,

6 overcrowding.


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3.13 It goes on to indicate that an appropriate comparison of these market signals

should be undertaken, with an ‘upward adjustment’ made if these signals

indicate an imbalance in supply and demand and the need to increase housing

supply to meet demand and tackle affordability issues:

“This includes comparison with longer term trends (both in absolute

levels and rates of change) in the: housing market area; similar

demographic and economic areas; and nationally. A worsening trend in

any of these indicators will require upward adjustment to planned

housing numbers compared to ones based solely on household

projections. Volatility in some indicators requires care to be taken: in

these cases rolling average comparisons may be helpful to identify

persistent changes and trends.

In areas where an upward adjustment is required, plan makers should

set this adjustment at a level that is reasonable. The more significant the

affordability constraints (as reflected in rising prices and rents, and

worsening affordability ratio) and the stronger other indicators of high

demand (e.g. the differential between land prices), the larger the

improvement in affordability needed and, therefore, the larger the

additional supply response should be.” [§2a-020-20140306]

3.14 The Guidance sets out a clear and logical ‘test’ for the circumstances in which

objectively assessed needs (including meeting housing demand) will be in

excess of demographic-led projections.

Housing Market Indicators

3.15 Each of the housing market indicators is taken and applied to data for the Local

Authority areas within the HMA (i.e. Burnley and Pendle).

Land Prices

3.16 The most readily available and nationally consistent data on unequipped

agricultural land values or residential building land prices is provided by the

Valuation Office Agency (VOA). However, the VOA data only covers major

centres or areas which generate sufficient activity to determine a market

pattern, so data for smaller authorities such as Burnley and Pendle is not

available.

House Prices

3.17 The Practice Guidance identifies that longer term changes in house prices may

suggest an imbalance between the demand for and supply of housing.

Although it suggests using mix-adjusted prices and / or House Price Indices,

these are not available at local authority level on a consistent basis, and

therefore for considering market signals in the Burnley and Pendle area, price

paid data is the most reasonable indicator.

3.18 Land registry price paid data suggests current (2014) median prices in Burnley

are £80,000 and in Pendle are £88,000 compared to £125,000 across


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Lancashire and £185,000 nationally (Table 3.1). The median house price in

Burnley (based on price paid) is 56.8% lower than the median national cost

and in Pendle is 52.4% lower. These prices illustrate that the housing stock in

Burnley and Pendle is cheaper when compared to Lancashire but is

considerably cheaper when compared to national rates. The data represents

the dwelling price across both new and old housing.

Table 3.1 Median Dwelling Prices (2014)

Dwelling Prices

Burnley £80,000

Pendle £88,000

Lancashire £125,000

England £185,000

Source: Land Registry Price Paid Data (2014)

3.19 CLG publish series data on median house prices based on the same Land

Registry price paid data series. This currently runs from 1996 to 2013 and is

illustrated in Figure 3.3. It indicates that both Burnley and Pendle have

experienced consistently and significantly lower house prices than the country

as a whole, and also considerably lower house prices than the Lancashire

median. The median house price for Burnley and Pendle has been changing

at a similar rate and displays similar trends to Lancashire. However,

discrepancies between the trends have begun to appear since 2011; prices in

Lancashire have gradually increased whereas in Pendle prices have remained

stable and in Burnley a slight decline has occurred.

3.20 Since the recession in 2008 prices have stayed relatively stable in Lancashire

and Pendle with the exception of the slight increase more recently in

Lancashire whilst there has been a slight decrease in Burnley. This conforms

with the national picture where house prices have increased since 2011 and in

2013 are at their highest level since 1996.

Figure 3.3 Median House Prices

Source: CLG Live Table 586


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3.21 In 2013, CLG data suggested that median house prices in Burnley were 58.4%

and in Pendle were 55% lower than the national average and 35% lower than

the Lancashire average. Pendle is ranked as being the 2nd cheapest place to

live in England. Burnley is the cheapest place to live in England with other

East Lancashire authorities also within the top 10 cheapest places to live in

England; Hyndburn (3rd) and Blackburn with Darwen (8th).

3.22 Over the previous 17 years (1996-2013), median house prices increased 157%

in Lancashire, in Burnley by 100% with house prices in Pendle increasing by

and almost identical rate to Lancashire (158%). Nationally house prices

increased by 182%. This demonstrates that although house prices have

increased in Burnley and Pendle, the change in median house prices is

significantly greater nationally.

3.23 As set out in the Practice Guidance, higher house prices than comparator

areas and long term rises tend to indicate an imbalance between the demand

for housing and the supply. Burnley and Pendle have lower house prices than

all neighbouring authorities and all local authorities across England.

Rents

3.24 On a similar basis, high and increasing rents in an area are a further signal of

stress in the housing market. Median rents in Burnley are £400 per month;

and ranges from £347 per month for a 1 bed flat, to £695 per month for a 4+

bed house. Median rents in Pendle are £415 per month; and ranges from

£350 per month for a 1 bed flat, to £650 per month for a 4+ bed house. The

median rent paid in Lancashire as a whole is higher, at £495 per month.

However, this ranges from £399 per month for a 1-bedroom dwelling, to £795

for a 4+ bed house. Rents are higher in Lancashire than in Burnley and

Pendle. In Burnley and in Pendle median rents are significantly below the

national average by 33% and 30% respectively.

3.25 Series data for rents from VOA statistics is only available for Q2 2011 to Q1

2013. However, the VOA data demonstrates that median rents in Burnley

Borough have increased by 2.6% and in Pendle Borough have increased by

5.4% since 2011. For Pendle this is greater than national figures, where there

has been a growth in rents of 4.4% and in both Boroughs less than the county

rental increase over the same period of 6.5%.

3.26 The increasing rent level in both Boroughs suggests that affordability within the

private market rental sector has worsened in the last couple of years. This is

likely to be linked to the ability of households to access finance to buy property.

Even though house prices in both boroughs are very low, the real income

levels of households are correspondingly low and therefore results in limited or

no mortgage options. This prevents households getting on the housing ladder

and increases demand in the private rented sector, which in turn puts upward

pressure on rental prices.

3.27 Low rents in the private rental sector can also have a role to play in meeting

affordable housing need in the HMA and in Burnley and Pendle private rents


P16 7209442v17

are very low. However, the presence of low rents is likely to cause an under-

representation of the scale of the pressures on the housing market in the HMA.

Affordability

3.28 The former CLG SHMA Practice Guidance defines affordability as a ‘measure

of whether housing may be afforded by certain groups of households’ [Annex

G, page 36]. It also concludes that assessing affordability involves comparing

costs against the ability to pay, with the relevant indicator being the ratio

between lower quartile house prices and lower quartile earnings.

3.29 Using CLG affordability ratios it is evident that affordability is relatively good in

Burnley (Figure 3.4). The affordability ratio dipped to 0.95 in 2002 and there

was a peak of 3.66 in 2008 which is equivalent to the lowest national

affordability ratio from 1998 (3.57). Burnley follows a similar trend to Pendle

and Lancashire but since 2008 the affordability ratio has been considerably

lower and therefore affordability in Burnley has been better. There has been a

consistent and significant improvement in affordability in Burnley since 2008.

3.30 Figure 3.4 illustrates that affordability in Pendle has been broadly consistent

with county and national trends across the same period albeit a one year lag is

evident; affordability in Pendle appears to improve or worsen one year after it

has begun to improve or worsen county wide. There has been a slight

divergence occurring since 2011 with Pendle’s affordability improving at a

greater rate than nationally.

3.31 It can be seen in Figure 3.4 that over the past 15 years, the ratio of lower

quartile house prices to lower quartile earnings in Pendle has been variable,

but always below the average for Lancashire and significantly below the

national average. In 2013, the lower quartile house price to earnings ratio was

3.25 in Pendle compared to 4.95 in Lancashire and 6.45 nationally.

3.32 Affordability ratios (i.e. the ratio of median house price to median earnings) in

Pendle have increased from 1.71 in 1997 to 3.25 in 2013 – an almost doubling

of the rate. Combined with increasing house prices this has contributed to

worsening affordability across the Burnley and Pendle HMA. However, since

the recession in 2008, affordability in Pendle has actually improved slightly

from 4.21 in 2008 to 3.25 in 2013.


7209442v17 P17

Figure 3.4 Affordability Ratios

Source: CLG Live Table 576

Rate of Development

3.33 The rate of development is intended to be a supply-side indicator of previous

under-delivery. The Practice Guidance states that:

“if the historic rate of development shows that actual supply falls below

planned supply, future supply should be increased to reflect the likelihood

of under-delivery of a plan” [§2a-019-20140306]

3.34 The rate of development is therefore a market signal relating to the quantity of

past under-supply, which will need to be made up. In Burnley, the relevant

‘planned supply’ figure was 130 dpa. In Pendle, the relevant ‘planned supply’

figure was 190 dpa which were dictated by the requirement within the North

West Regional Strategy [RS].

3.35 Figure 3.5 and Figure 3.6 illustrates net completions in Burnley and Pendle

since 2003/04.


P18 7209442v17

Figure 3.5 Dwelling Completions in Burnley 2003/04 - 2012/13

Source: Burnley Borough Council

3.36 In Burnley net completions have only once exceeded the housing target in

2007/08 where net completions peaked at 145. Since 2009 the number of

dwellings in Burnley has declined with a small net gain in dwellings in 2012/13

of 14. This is likely to be due to the legacy of Housing Market Renewal [HMR]

in Burnley as well as demolitions associated with regeneration in the Borough.

The number of demolitions is very high in Burnley although the number of

demolitions in 2012/13 was a significant reduction on the previous three years.

3.37 From 2003-2011, the level of under-delivery in Burnley equated to 683

dwellings when set against the North West RS target of 130 dpa. Spread

across the 19-year plan period (2011 to 2030), this would equate to an

additional 36 dpa.

Figure 3.6 Dwelling Completions in Pendle 2003/04 - 2013/14

Source: Pendle Borough Council


7209442v17 P19

3.38 The rate of delivery in Pendle has fallen short of planned supply since 2007/08.

The scale of demolitions associated with housing market renewal [HMR]

initiatives in Pendle has noticeably influenced the net delivery figures. The

total number of demolition across the two years 2008/09 and 2009/10 totals

238. This may have contributed towards the other housing market signals

which indicate that there has been some stress in the housing market as a

product of demand not being met (i.e. increasing private rent prices).

3.39 However prior to 2008 housing delivery in Pendle consistently exceeded the

planned target and this ‘over-supply’ is likely to have reduced stress in the

housing market more recently as affordability has improved and house prices

have improved/declined since 2008.

3.40 The number of demolitions in Pendle is still high but has begun to tail off since

the peak in 2008/09 due to the cessation of HMR schemes although a small

number of demolitions are always likely to continue as part of regeneration

schemes.

3.41 From 2003-2011, the level of under-delivery equated to 220 dwellings when set

against the North West RS target of 190 dpa. Spread across the 19-year plan

period (2011 to 2030), this would equate to an additional 12 dpa to address

this past under-provision for Pendle.

Overcrowding

3.42 Indicators on overcrowding, sharing households and homelessness

demonstrate unmet need for housing within an area. The Practice Guidance

suggests that long-term increases in the number of such households may be a

signal that planned housing requirements need to be increased. [§2a-019-

20140306]

3.43 The 2011 Census includes data on household occupancy. The occupancy

rating provides a measure of whether a household's accommodation is

overcrowded or under-occupied based upon the number of rooms in a

household's accommodation. The ages of the household members and their

relationships to each other are used to derive the number of rooms they

require, based on a standard formula. The number of rooms required is

subtracted from the number of rooms in the household's accommodation to

obtain the occupancy rating. An occupancy rating of -1 implies that a

household has one fewer room / bedroom than required, whereas +1 implies

that they have one more room / bedroom than the standard requirement.

3.44 Table 3.2 presents overcrowding against the occupancy rating in Burnley and

Pendle (2011 data) and indicates that 5.10% and 5.53%, respectively, of

households are living in a dwelling that is too small for their household size and

composition. This is not particularly severe when compared to 8.74%

nationally and 6.24% in the North West. Overcrowding in Burnley and Pendle

has decreased since 2001 from 5.35% and 6.05% whereas the opposite trend

has occurred nationally and across the North West where overcrowding has

become more prevalent.


P20 7209442v17

Table 3.2 Overcrowding: Household Room Occupancy Rating

2001 2011

Total Households

-1 room occupancy or

less

-1 room

occupancy

or less (%)

Total Households

-1 room occupancy or

less

-1 room occupancy or less (%)

England 20,451,427 1,457,512 7.13% 22,063,368 1,928,596 8.74%

North West 2,812,789 152,248 5.41% 3,009,549 187,816 6.24%

Pendle 35,963 2,176 6.05% 37,348 2,067 5.53%

Burnley 36,805 1,969 5.35% 37,550 1,916 5.10%

Source: Census 2001 / Census 2011

3.45 The declining levels of overcrowding could be a symptom associated with the

changes in population profile in the HMA which has led to fewer residents of

child bearing age and a declining birth rate which results in lower levels of

larger families within the Boroughs.

3.46 In addition, the declining (and relatively low level of) overcrowding may be a

function of low private rent in Burnley and Pendle which, although increasing

slightly in recent years is lower than the Lancashire average, and is below

neighbouring authorities such as Calderdale and Ribble Valley and also the

national average. House prices are also very low in Burnley and Pendle when

compared to the median house price across Lancashire but cheaper again

than in other adjoining authorities outside of Lancashire such as Calderdale

and Bradford.

Synthesis of Market Signals

3.47 Drawing together the individual market signals above allows us to build a

picture of the current housing market in and around Burnley and Pendle; the

extent to which demand for housing is not being met; and the outcomes that

are occurring because of this.

Burnley and Pendle Housing Market

3.48 It is clear from this analysis that the Burnley and Pendle housing market faces

limited challenges relative to other housing markets. The market signals point

towards a housing market which, to a limited extent, is failing to match demand

with supply (as demonstrated by increasing private rental levels). However,

this could also be a result of restricted access to mortgage finance which is

likely to prevent access to the housing market for many households. In both

boroughs net housing delivery figures have fallen dramatically since before

2008, partly due to high levels of demolitions, the net delivery rate has

consistently failed to meet the 130/190 dpa RS target.

3.49 However, the rate of change of house prices has not led to the worsening of

affordability in Burnley and Pendle and has not been as pronounced as the

change seen nationally. Nevertheless, with median house prices the 1st and

2nd lowest in the country, resident-based incomes are likely to be a significant

factor in the level of affordability in Burnley and Pendle which is still high

considering the very cheap house prices. An increase in resident-based

incomes would be expected to show noticeable improvements to affordability.


7209442v17 P21

There are signs of improving affordability already evident with the affordability

ratio declining since 2008 but this could be accelerated with an increase in

resident-based incomes.

3.50 In order to draw meaningful conclusions regarding the extent to which such

market signals indicate housing market stress in Burnley and Pendle Boroughs

and a level of supply that is not meeting demand, the Practice Guidance

suggests that comparison of both absolute levels and rates of change in such

indicators should be made with similar areas and nationally. [§2a-020-

20140306]

3.51 In this respect, Burnley and Pendle have been compared and ranked against

other nearby Local Authorities and the overall indicators for England. These

comparator centres have been chosen as they constitute areas which border

the HMA and / or have some connection through migration and commuting:

1 Bradford

2 Blackburn with Darwen

3 Calderdale

4 Craven

5 Hyndburn

6 Ribble Valley

7 Rossendale

3.52 Table 3.3 compares Burnley and Pendle’s market signals against those of

comparator areas.

7209442v17 P23

Table 3.3 Comparison of Pendle Housing Market Signals

House Prices

Affordability Ratio (LQ House

Price to LQ Earnings Rents Land Prices Overcrowding Homelessness

Rank Median

(2013)

Change %

(1998-2013) Ratio 2013

Change

(1998-2013)

Median

Monthly Rent

Change % (Q2

2011-Q1

2013)

Resi Bulk

Developme

nt Land (£

per ha)

% of Housing

Over-

Occupied

Change

2001-2011

(% points)

Incidence of

homeless

h'holds

(2012/13)

Change

(04/05-12/13)

1

England Ribble Valley Ribble Valley Hyndburn England Calderdale England Bradford England England Craven

2 Ribble Valley England Craven

Blackburn with

Darwen UA Ribble Valley Pendle

Blackburn

with Darwen

UA England Bradford Burnley England

3 Craven

Blackburn with

Darwen UA England Pendle Craven England Bradford

Blackburn with

Darwen UA Craven Bradford Bradford

4 Bradford Bradford Rossendale England Calderdale Burnley Calderdale Calderdale

Blackburn

with Darwen

UA Calderdale Ribble Valley

5 Calderdale Craven Calderdale Ribble Valley

Blackburn with

Darwen UA Ribble Valley ~1 Pendle Rossendale Craven Burnley

6 Rossendale Hyndburn Bradford Rossendale Rossendale Craven ~ Burnley Burnley Ribble Valley Calderdale

7

Blackburn with

Darwen UA Pendle

Blackburn with

Darwen UA Calderdale Bradford

Blackburn with

Darwen UA ~ Rossendale Ribble Valley Pendle Pendle

8 Hyndburn Calderdale Hyndburn Craven Hyndburn Rossendale ~ Hyndburn Calderdale Rossendale Rossendale

9 Pendle Rossendale Pendle Bradford Pendle Bradford ~ Craven Pendle

Blackburn with

Darwen UA

Blackburn with

Darwen UA

10 Burnley Burnley Burnley Burnley Burnley Hyndburn ~ Ribble Valley Hyndburn Hyndburn Hyndburn

Source: NLP analysis of VOA, CLG and ONS Statistics. 1 Note: figures are only generally available for larger/urban areas

Worsening

housing

market

outcomes

Improving

housing

market

outcomes


7209442v17 P25

3.53 The comparative assessment of market signals highlights the scale of housing

market stress within the Burnley and Pendle HMA. Although absolute house

prices are very low in both boroughs and rentals are also very low, an increase

in both since 1998 shows Pendle as a mid-ranking authority in terms of the rate

of change of house prices and a high-ranking authority in terms of change in

rents. Burnley has a low rate of change and is bottom of all comparator

authorities. However, since the recession in 2008, house prices have actually

fallen in Pendle and affordability has improved by 22% compared to 8%

nationally. Therefore, although Pendle shows signs of stress, these need to be

treated with caution due to the change in market signals experienced since

2008.

3.54 Affordability is good in both boroughs compared to other Lancashire and

Yorkshire authorities and there have been some signs of improvement since

2008. The affordability ratio is currently significantly lower than the national

level, which is to be expected given that house prices are far lower in the

boroughs. Irrespective of the evidence of some improvement since 2008 this

is still cause for some concern as median house prices still exceed 3 times the

average household income in the HMA. However, Burnley and Pendle are

both more affordable than neighbouring authorities in Lancashire. Burnley is

the cheapest place to live in England. The affordability ratio is likely to be

exaggerated by low resident-based incomes rather than house prices which

are very low. Therefore, it is not considered that anything other than a very

modest uplift is appropriate in either Burnley or Pendle as there are signs of

improving affordability and stable and very low house prices.

3.55 The market signals provide an indication of demand and suggest that market

signals are generally improving in Burnley and Pendle. However, there needs

to be consideration of how to arrest the rate of change of rental costs in

Pendle. Even though they are at a relatively low level at present (certainly

when compared to the national rate) there is a requirement to stabilise the

increasing rents.

3.56 Pendle Borough has also under-delivered housing when set against the

previous RS requirements by around 220 dwellings since 2003.

3.57 The extent to which the demographic ‘starting point’ for identifying OAN for

housing needs to be boosted to address market signals is necessarily an area

of judgement. The Practice Guidance is clear that the more significant the

affordability constraints and the stronger other indicators of high demand, the

larger the improvement in affordability needed and, therefore, the larger the

additional supply response should be. [§2a-020-20140306]

3.58 Overall most housing market signals in Pendle show signs of improvement and

stabilisation since 2008. Therefore, the implications for Pendle at this time are

that any adjustment to housing supply over and above demographic-led

projections would be modest, in line with the Practice Guidance, as there is

limited evidence of worsening housing market signals.


P26 7209442v17

3.59 In terms of how this uplift should be quantified, it would appear sensible to

make suitable provision to address the past under-delivery of housing in

Pendle. This would be applied to the demographic ‘starting point’ of the

baseline household projections and would equate to around 220 dwellings, or

12 dpa, over the course of the plan period to 2030. This is necessary to meet

needs that have been supressed within the existing demographic

characteristics of the Borough, and therefore would only meet change within

the existing population (such as allowing concealed households to ‘emerge’).

3.60 Furthermore, it is NLP’s judgement that, given the other worsening market

signals in Pendle, the application of a slight uplift on the Index based headship

rate approach (Scenario A) would also be appropriate, aligned to the ‘partial

catch up’ headship rates. The uplift is discussed in further detail in Section 5.0.


7209442v17 P27

4.0 Updates to the PopGroup Baseline Model

Run

Introduction

4.1 This study was undertaken to establish whether the recent data releases

(published since the 2013 SHMA) could justify an adjustment to the housing

OAN for Pendle.

4.2 Taking forward the methodological approach outlined in detail in the 2013

SHMA for the Boroughs, the following scenarios were re-modelled to take into

account the latest 2012-based SNPP data:

Demographic-led Projections - “How much development is required to

meet projected levels of population change?”:

a Updated PopGroup Baseline: This scenario represents a projection of

the demographic shift based on current factors and recent trends in

Pendle. The updated scenario uses the same broad approach as for the

previous baseline (Scenario A in the 2013 SHMA), but incorporates the

2012-based SNPP ONS population projections. It has been assumed

that post 2021, the 2008-based headship rates are applied (the ‘index’

approach). The 2008-based headship rates are the most up-to-date long

term (i.e. post 2021) rates currently available from CLG. The base date

of 2011 has been retained, as has the end date of 2030. Changes have

also been made to the commuting, economic activity and unemployment

rates to reflect the latest data from NOMIS.

Sensitivity Tests:

Scenario Aa: Static Headship Rates – A scenario which i

incorporates the ONS / CLG inputs of Scenario A to provide a

projection to 2021; after this time, the 2021 headship rates are held

constant;

Scenario Ab: Trend Headship Rates – As above, although post-ii

2021 the CLG 2011-based household projection trends are

continued on a linear basis;

Scenario Ac: Partial Catch-Up Headship Rates – As above; iii

change post 2021 is targeted to partially achieve (by around half)

the CLG 2008-based Household Projections end-rates by 2033

(not previously modelled);

Scenario Ad: Catch Up Headship Rates - As above; change post iv

2021 is targeted to achieve the CLG 2008-based Household

Projections end-rates by 2033.

b Scenario B: Natural Change - In and out-migration is reduced to zero,

hence growth is driven purely by natural change, or the interaction

between births and deaths;


P28 7209442v17

c Scenario C: Zero Net Migration - Whereby the annual international and

domestic migration flows under the baseline scenario are equalised to

result in a net migration of zero (i.e. an identical number of people move

into the area as leave the Borough);

d Scenario D: Short Term Migration Trends - A scenario based upon

migration trends observed for BBC and PBC over the past 5 years;

e Scenario E: Long Term Migration Trends - A scenario based upon

migration trends observed for BBC and PBC over the previous 10 years;

f Scenario F: CLG Household Projections (plus Vacancy) -

incorporating the 2011-based interim CLG household projections to

derive household growth (294 households per annum in Pendle), plus the

application of the latest vacancy rates for the borough (6.6% for Pendle

in 2013) to convert households to dwellings.

Economic-led Projections - “How much development is required to

ensure forecasts of future employment change are supported by the

local labour supply?”11:

g Scenario G: Past Trends Job Growth – Taking forward past growth in

employment between 2001 and 2012 on a pro-rata basis to 2030 (equal

to a broadly neutral level of job growth for Pendle);

h Scenario H: Experian Job Growth – A ‘policy-off’ trend-scenario based

upon Experian’s local area-based model, providing potential

unconstrained employment growth in Pendle (-400 jobs 2012-2030);

i Scenario I: Policy-On Economic Growth – A scenario based upon a

series of adjustments to the Experian baseline scenario to reflect the

Council’s aspiration to maximise the economic potential of the Borough in

line with its emerging ELR (+883 jobs for Pendle 2011-2030);

j Scenario J: ELR Take Up Job Growth – Models the implications of

targeting the level of job growth associated with the past take up rates

scenario in PBC’s ELR. For Pendle, the net employment land take up

figure has been used, converting the 68 ha gross land target in PBC’s

ELR to 28.29 ha (net) by discounting the amount of land likely to be

taken up by existing Pendle companies relocating (2.09ha per annum).

Through the use of localised plot ratios and employment densities, PBC

estimates that this could result in a net increase of up to 2,936 jobs 2011-

2030;

Sensitivity Tests:

Scenario Ja: Reduced Out-Commuting – A scenario whereby i

the anticipated job growth in Scenario J results in a gradual

reduction in the level of net out-commuting for Pendle Borough by

an indicative figure of 5% between 2011-2030;

Scenario Jb: Reduced Vacancy Rate – Whereby the housing ii

implications associated with the job targets set out in Scenario J 11

i.e. calculating the level of dwellings required to boost the local economically active population sufficiently so that the provision of new jobs would not necessarily result in a substantial net increase in the number of people having to commute into the Borough from elsewhere


7209442v17 P29

are ameliorated through a reduction in existing vacancy rates. The

existing 6.6% vacancy rate for Pendle is gradually reduced to the

national average rate (4.0%) by 2030.

Policy/Supply-led – “What are the implications - in terms of the

number of people, households and jobs - of delivering a certain

amount of development?”:

k Scenario K: Past Housing Delivery Rates: using past delivery trends to

illustrate what the market has previously delivered (132 dpa net for

Pendle 2003/2004-2013/2014) and projecting these forward over the

Plan period; and

l Scenario L. North West Regional Strategy Housing Target – A

scenario based upon delivery of the (now abolished) North West RS

housing target for Pendle of 190 dpa. It is acknowledged that the RS

targets were derived with a spatial distribution policy element and were

not just a needs-based calculation.

Scenarios – Assumptions and Approach

4.3 The above 18 scenarios (two policy/supply driven, six economic driven and ten

demographic driven) provide a wide range of outputs evidencing housing and

employment development needs based upon different factors under different

scenarios. All scenarios provide development requirements over a timeframe

starting in 2011 and ending in 2030. There are a number of assumptions

which NLP has adopted to form the basis for all modelled scenarios. These

include:

1 The 2011 and 2012 population figures align with the latest 2011-based

and 2012-based mid-year population estimates for the Borough;

2 Future change assumed in the Total Fertility Rate [TFR] uses the birth

projections from the ONS 2012-based SNPP. This in turn is used to

derive future projected TFRs through PopGroup;

3 Future change assumed in the Standard Mortality Rates [SMR] uses the

death projections from the ONS 2012-based SNPP. This in turn is used

to derive future projected SMRs through PopGroup;

4 Migration flows are adopted based on forecast migration in the Borough

from the ONS 2012-based SNPP for the actual migration flows 2011-

2030;

5 Projected age specific profiles of migration uses ONS trend data in the

2012-based SNPP;

6 Headship rates and populations not in households (e.g. those in

institutional care) are taken from the CLG 2011-based (interim)

household projections. Beyond 2021 headship rates are assumed to

resume the long term trends identified within the 2008-based CLG

household projections with indexed trends from the 2008-based

projections applied to the 2021 end point of the 2011-based household

projections;


P30 7209442v17

7 A vacancy and second homes rate is applied to the number of

households, representing the natural vacancies/not permanently

occupied homes which occur within the housing market. The

vacancy/second home rate in Pendle totals 6.6% (estimated using data

from the Council Tax Base for Formula Grant Purposes - October 2013),

held constant over the forecast period;

8 Reduction in unemployment rates from the existing high level (i.e. 8.3%

for Pendle in 2013), held constant for 2014 and 2015 to reflect initial

stabilisation at the current high rate. This rate was then gradually

reduced on a linear basis to the long term average (04-13) of 6.8% over

a 5-year period to 2020 (to reflect a typical 7/8-year economic cycle) and

held constant thereafter to reflect a more realistic future scenario;

9 It has been assumed that the commuting rates for the Borough remains

static with no inferred increase or decrease in commuting levels.

According to the 2011 Census, there were 42,765 economically active

PBC residents between the ages of 16 and 74, of whom 39,32412 were in

employment. In contrast, in 2011 there were 30,807 jobs in PBC

(BRES), hence a rate of 1.276 was used (i.e. more people commute out

of Pendle Borough than commute in on a daily basis)13. The only

exception to this is the sensitivity tests on the jobs growth scenarios (Ja

above), whereby the rate was reduced by 5% over time;

10 2011 Census Economic Activity Rates have been used for each age

cohort to equate to the 2011 economic activity profile for PBC. From

2012 onwards, an adjustment has been made to reflect the changes to

the State Pension Age; the propensity for people to live longer and retire

later; and the growth of part time opportunities amongst other challenges.

The NLP approach mirrors that put forward by Kent County Council in

their Technical Paper: “Activity Rate projections to 2036, Research and

Evaluation, Business Strategy and Support” (October 2011). The

gradual change in rates is most pronounced for women over the age of

60 and males between the ages of 65 and 69. The rates were gradually

increased from 2012 to 2020 to reflect the likely timetable for

implementation of these changes to the pension system, whereby they

were held constant across the remainder of the forecasting period.

4.4 Where scenarios have been demographically modelled, a full schedule of the

assumptions and inputs underpinning each one is contained within Appendix 1,

and the outputs from the modelling are contained within Appendix 2 and

Appendix 3.

12

Note – in the SHMA, due to unavailability of the 2011 Census economic activity data at the time, the APS was used, which had a slightly different figure of 39,500 employed people compared to 39,324 as per the Census. This results in a small reduction in the commuting rate, from 1.282 in the 2013 SHMA, to 1.276 now. 13

Note: a slightly different labour force ratio was used in the earlier SHMA document (1.282), as this utilised data from the 2011 APS rather than the recently released economic activity data from the 2011 Census which has informed the Update.


7209442v17 P31

Modelling Results

4.5 These demographic scenarios use components of population change to project

how the future population, household composition, and subsequently their

requirements for housing, will shift in the future. These comprise natural

change (i.e. births and deaths) and net migration, for which the headline results

for each scenario are outlined below.

Demographic-led Scenarios

Scenario A – Updated PopGroup Baseline 2012-based SNPP

4.6 At this current point in time (September 2014), the 2012-based household

projections have not been released. As such, NLP has sought to model

scenarios that incorporate the latest population date (the 2012-based SNPP)

with headship rates taken from the latest available CLG household projections

(2011-based interim). Until such time as the CLG releases this data, expected

in autumn 2014, then this baseline scenario represents a reasonable and

robust attempt at modelling the housing requirements in Pendle Borough that

are likely to flow from the significantly lower 2012-based population projections.

4.7 The baseline scenario is predicated upon the rates of projected migration,

births and deaths in Pendle identified within the ONS 2012-based SNPP and

the headship rates within the 2011-based (interim) household projections (to

2021 – the headship rates within the 2008-based household projections

thereafter).

4.8 Under this scenario the population of Pendle is projected to increase by 3,925

people over the period 2011 to 2030, which is less than half the level of growth

projected in the previous Baseline Scenario A (+8,461 residents). This is

reflective of the fact that the latest 2012-based SNPP is substantially lower for

Pendle than the (interim) 2011-based SNPP. This lower growth is still made

up predominantly by natural change consisting of (+8,987) but is brought down

significantly by migration (-5,062 people). The resulting increase in

households in Pendle is projected to be 4,295, compared to 5,377 previously.

4.9 The previous set of projections suggested that the working age population

would increase by 922 over the plan period, with the number of residents of

retirement age substantially increasing by 6,475. The new model run indicates

that the number of residents of working age will actually decline by 709, whilst

the number of residents over 65 will again increase substantially, by 6,332

(slightly less than previous projections).

4.10 As a result, despite the increase in the population under this scenario, it would

actually result in the labour force declining over the plan period. Furthermore,

the scenario would, assuming current commuting rates, result in 413 fewer

jobs, compared to a net additional increase of 660 previously. This scenario

would lead to a demographic-led housing need of 4,295 dwellings, or 226 dpa.

This compares to 5,764 additional dwellings in the equivalent model run based

on the 2011-based SNPP, equivalent to 303 dpa.


P32 7209442v17

Headship Rate Adjustments

4.11 As noted in the 2013 SHMA, there are specific issues regarding the headship

rates used to underpin the latest 2011-based interim household projections,

not the least of which is the fact that headship rates are only provided for the

period 2011-2021. To demonstrate the extent to which NLP’s ‘index’ approach

that underpins Scenario A represents a reasonable compromise, a variety of

sensitivity tests were modelled using higher/lower household representations

post 2021. The data indicates that the indexed household representation

scenario sits roughly midway between the lowest projections (static) and the

highest (catch-up). All the scenarios are considerably below their 2013 SHMA

predecessors.

Scenario B – Natural Change

4.12 As before, this scenario examined the consequences of stripping out all the

migration both into and out of Pendle over the period 2011-2030. As a

consequence, the only population growth that can be generated results from

the interaction of births and deaths, i.e. natural change.

4.13 Using the 2012-based SNPP data inputs, this has the effect of reducing the

dwelling requirement for Pendle under this scenario from 282 dpa previously,

to 276 dpa. Even so, this figure is still considerably higher than the dwelling

requirement from baseline Scenario A, which includes the interaction of both

natural change and migration. This demonstrates the extent to which the

Borough is reliant on natural change, rather than net migration, to drive future

population growth.

Scenario A:

• Pendle Borough: 226 dpa 2011-2030

Scenario Aa:


Scenario Ab:


Scenario Ac:


Scenario Ad:



7209442v17 P33

Scenario C – Zero Net Migration

4.14 As before, the zero net migration scenario represents the population impacts of

equalising migration (i.e. ensuring that the number of international and

domestic migrants coming into the Borough, equal the number moving out).

Thus whilst in the short term the population is unchanged from the natural

change scenario, the profile of the population changes over time due to the

different profile of in-migrants and out-migrants.

4.15 For Pendle Borough, the previous modelling work for this scenario suggested a

dwelling requirement of 358 dpa. This reduces to 300 dpa using the 2012-

based SNPP inputs, with population growth of 7,980 and a net increase in the

number of jobs equal to 658 to 2030.

Scenario D – Short Term Migration Trend

4.16 This scenario is based upon a continuation into the future of the average past

migration trends observed in the Borough over the short term (past 5 years)

and applies these to the ONS 2012-based (interim) SNPP. This draws upon

ONS estimates of domestic and international migration over the previous 5

years for Pendle. It differs from the previous approach in that an extra years’

worth of data is available on past migration, whilst the 2012-based SNPP has

been used instead of the 2011-based SNPP.

4.17 Again, due to the low levels of in-migration for Pendle in the past five years,

population growth is forecast to be minimal, which has a concurrent

suppression on household formation and dwelling requirements. Instead of the

305 dpa reported for Pendle in the 2013 SHMA, the latest data would indicate

a requirement of 235 dpa between 2011 and 2030.

Scenario E – Long Term Migration Trend

4.18 As with Scenario D, the main changes to the approach used in the previous

2013 SHMA is the availability of an extra years’ worth of data and the

application of information underpinning the 2012-based SNPP. The result of

Scenario B:


Scenario C:


Scenario D:



P34 7209442v17

this is that, again, the dwelling requirement for Pendle is lower than before –

5,143 dwellings 2011-2030, or 271 dpa, compared to 309 dpa previously.

Scenario F – 2011 CLG (Interim) Household Projections

4.19 This data (and therefore the requirement of 314 dpa for Pendle) is largely

unchanged from the 2013 SHMA (save for a slight adjustment to take into

account an updated vacancy rate figure) and has not been modelled in

PopGroup. Until the 2012-based CLG household projections are released in

autumn 2014, these remain the most up-to-date household projections

currently available. NLP has modelled the implications of applying the

headship rates within the 2011-based (interim) household projections (to 2021)

to the 2012-based SNPP separately, in Scenarios A-Ad.

Economic-led Scenarios

Scenario G – Past Job Trends

4.20 The past trends scenario calculates a ten-year historic trend using adjusted

Annual Business Inquiry [ABI]/Business Register and Employment Survey

[BRES] data from 2000 to 2012 (2 digit Standard Industrial Classification [SIC]

sectors), comparing this to the 2012 PopGroup baseline job growth figure

identified in Scenario A above. This has been altered since the 2013 SHMA

which used data from 2001 to 2011. On the basis of past trends continuing

over the plan period (2011-2030) this resulted in a requirement for Pendle of

314 dpa in the SHMA 2013. The updated modelling results in a decline of the

requirement, to 247 dpa.

Scenario H – Experian Job Growth

4.21 This comprises a ‘policy-off’ trend based-scenario using Experian’s local area

based job forecasting model. The data provided covered the period from 2011

to 2030. They therefore represent an objective forecast of how this part of

Lancashire could perform in economic terms in the future based on the nature

of its economy and current expectations of future national and regional

economic performance. To underpin 400 net job decline between 2012 and

Scenario E:


Scenario F:

• Pendle Borough : 312 dpa 2011-2030

Scenario G:



7209442v17 P35

2030, there would need to be a decrease in the local labour force of -1,334.

There would need to be an increase in the number of dwellings under this

scenario, of 191 dpa. This is lower than the 2013 SHMA figure of 243 dpa to

reflect the very different demographic breakdown of the Borough’s key working

age demographic in the 2012-based SNPP.

Scenario I – Policy-On Economic Growth

4.22 The previous level of job growth for Pendle was 880. To underpin this level of

job growth there would need to be an increase in population of around 8,895

and household growth of 5,514, resulting in a dwelling requirement of 311 dpa.

The new level of jobs growth is similar at 883. However, due to the very

different profile of the Borough's key working age demographic in the 2012-

based SNPP, a lower level of population growth (7,201) would be required to

underpin this, resulting in a dwelling requirement of 298dpa.

Scenario J – ELR Historic Take Up Job Growth

4.23 This scenario models the implications of aligning the level of job growth

associated with the past take up rates scenario in Pendle’s ELR. The high

level of job growth projected for Pendle would require an increase in the local

labour force 3,878, which is equal to an overall population growth of 12,880.

This would equate to a very high housing requirement of 416 dpa which is

slightly lower than the requirement modelled in the 2013 SHMA (441 dpa).

Scenario Ja – Sensitivity: Reduced Net Out-Commuting

4.24 Running this sensitivity test on the basis of the same premise as Scenario J

above would reduce the dwelling requirement to 6,128, or 323 dpa for Pendle.

Scenario Jb – Sensitivity: Reduced Vacancy Rate

4.25 Running this sensitivity test on the basis of the same premise as Scenario J

above would reduce the dwelling requirement to 6,608, or 348 dpa for Pendle.

Scenario H:


Scenario I:



P36 7209442v17

Housing-Led Scenarios

Scenario K – Past Housing Delivery Rates

4.26 The policy/supply led scenarios test the implications of delivering a certain

level of development (i.e. a set number of dwellings) based on the given

parameters of the scenario. We recognise that the Objective Assessment of

Need cannot be founded on supply led scenarios as per the National Planning

Practice Guidance [Practice Guidance] but they are useful comparators.

4.27 Adding an additional years’ worth of net completions data to the previous past

take up rate for Pendle (i.e. 63 dpa 2013/2014) reduces the previous average

of 139 dpa in the 2013 SHMA, to 132 dpa.

Scenario L – North West Regional Strategy Housing Target

4.28 Again, as this scenario involves no new demographic modelling, the figures

remain as before in the 2013 SHMA.

Summary

4.29 The Scenarios indicate a wide range of housing requirements for the period

2011 to 2030, based upon different indicators of what the need for housing

within Pendle could be. These are summarised in Table 4.1. Incorporating the

lower 2012-based SNPP into the modelling has the effect of reducing the

dwelling requirements for all of the modelled scenarios without exception, with

the updates between 2 dpa and 78 dpa lower for Pendle (with the difference

Scenario J:


Scenario Ja:


Scenario Jb:


Scenario K:


Scenario L:



7209442v17 P37

between the employment-led scenarios markedly lower than the differences

between the demographic projections).

Table 4.1 Summary of Updated Pendle Comparison of Scenarios 2011-2030

2012-Based SNPP 2011-Based SNPP

Po

pu

lati

on

C

ha

ng

e

Jo

b G

row

th

Dw

ell

ing

s

20

11

-20

30

Dw

ell

ing

C

ha

ng

e p

.a.

Dw

ell

ing

C

ha

ng

e p

.a.

Dif

fere

nc

e

A. Baseline 3,925 -413 4,295 226 303 -77

Aa. Baseline - STATIC HEADSHIP 3,925 -413 3,890 205 281 -76

Ab. Baseline - TREND HEADSHIP 3,925 -413 3,888 205 283 -78

Ac. Baseline - PARTIAL CATCH UP 3,925 -413 4,583 241 n/a n/a

Ad. Baseline - CATCH UP HEADSHIP 3,925 -413 5,256 277 354 -77

B. Natural Change 7,367 211 5,236 276 282 -6

C. Zero Net Migration 7,980 658 5,698 300 358 -58

D. Short Term Migration Trends 4,246 -78 4,472 235 305 -70

E. Long Term Migration Trends 5,940 505 5,143 271 309 -38

F. CLG 2011-based H'Hold Projections

- - 5,928 312 314 -2

G. Past Job Trends 4,759 0 4,696 247 314 -67

H. Experian Job Growth 2,141 -949 3,654 192 243 -51

I. Policy On 7,201 883 5,661 298 311 -13

J. ELR Past Take Up 12,880 2,936 7,906 416 441 -25

Ja. ELR Past Take Up Commuting Sensitivity

8,377 3,017 6,128 323 342 -19

Jb. ELR Past Take Up Vacancy Sensitivity

12,880 2,936 6,608 348 369 -21

K. Past Housing Delivery Rates* - - 2,508 132 139 -7

L. RS* - - 3,610 190 190 - Source: CLG Household Projections / NLP Analysis of PopGroup Outputs / PBC

*Note: This supply-led scenario has been included for comparative purposes only and does not comprise OAN


P38 7209442v17

5.0 Discussion

Introduction

5.1 In the light of the new datasets underpinning the scenarios, this section of the

report discusses whether the previous forecasts remain valid, and whether, as

a consequence of this, the justifications behind the range of dwelling

requirements given in the previous report(s) remain robust. Figure 5.1

demonstrates the extent to which the previous scenarios compare with the

updated projections.

5.2

7209442v17 P39

Figure 5.1 Comparison of Scenarios for Pendle Borough

Source: NLP Analysis


7209442v17 P41

5.3 NLP has reservations over the use of the 2011-based SNPP data. These are

only interim projections and incorporate 2010-based data on fertility, mortality

and migration. Furthermore, the data only goes up to 2021, rather than 2030.

The 2012-based SNPP can be considered more robust as a basis for

underpinning housing requirements than the 2011-based SNPP, because it

incorporates the 2011 Census and updated demographic assumptions on

fertility, mortality and migration.

5.4 As can be seen from Figure 5.1, there is a fall in the updated dwelling

requirements for all of Pendle’s scenarios, but particularly the demographic

projections (Scenarios A to Ad), with the latest figures around 77 dpa lower.

This is due to the fall in the population growth projected in the 2012-based

SNPP when compared to the 2011-based SNPP which informed the 2013

SHMA model runs, with the former projecting around half the latter’s growth to

2021. It is therefore unsurprising that it has resulted in such a reduction in the

Borough’s dwelling requirements. However, the difference in dwelling

requirement is perhaps less severe in Pendle due to the shifting balance in the

demography. PBC’s reduction in population is predominantly within the

younger age groups, many of whom are less likely to form a head of a

household than the older age cohorts.

5.5 Whilst the employment led scenarios tend to have a greater correlation with the

previous projections for Pendle, even here the direction of change is

consistently downwards.

Overall Compliance

SHMA 2013 Findings

5.6 At this point it is important to revisit the original justification for Pendle’s

housing needs range. Due to the various factors and assumptions which feed

into the assessment of future needs, it was recognised that there was not a

single figure which could be definitively identified as objectively assessed need

for housing. This is noted in the former CLG SHMA Guidance which identifies

that estimates of need may be expressed as a single number or a range.

5.7 The previous demographic projections varied from 281 dpa (Scenario Ab) to

358 dpa (Scenario C). The economic scenarios generally clustered around a

similar range as the demographic projections, from a low of 243 dpa (Scenario

H) to 314 dpa (Scenario G), which was identical to the CLG Household

projections figure to 2021. As such, they were said to reinforce, and were

consistent with, the higher end of the demographic projections.

5.8 Scenario J was founded on a comparatively high level of job growth and

resulted in a commensurately high dwelling requirement. However, it was

difficult to relate this to the housing OAN due to uncertainties over the extent to

which the jobs were truly ‘net additional’. In this regard, reducing the high

levels of net out-commuting would have lowered the requirement by over 20%,

which was considered to be a policy choice for Pendle to make.


P42 7209442v17

5.9 On the basis of the SHMA’s analysis, it was considered that an objective

assessment of housing need for Pendle fell within the 280 to 320 dpa range,

equivalent to 5,320 to 6,080 units. Overall, this range was defined to ensure

positive economic growth in line with Pendle’s aspirations and the

requirements of The Framework, whilst addressing the needs of future

residents.

5.10 For Pendle, the 280 dpa to 320 dpa range incorporated a clear clustering of a

number of the demographic and employment-led scenarios and demonstrated

a closer relationship between the two themes. Although significantly higher

than past delivery rates and RS requirements for Pendle, the range robustly

balanced the relatively high demographic growth projections and the

aspirational economic projections.

2012-based SNPP Update Findings

5.11 In general, NLP considers that if the data within the 2012-based SNPP for

Pendle had been available to inform the 2013 SHMA report, a broader range of

housing requirements would have been recommended with a particular

reduction at the lower end of the range to reflect the significant reduction in

population growth.

5.12 Based on the revised modelling work set out in this report, at the lower end of

the range the Partial Catch Up Headship Rate Scenario is considered

appropriate. This comprises a slight uplift (of 15 dpa) on the Index-based

approach (Scenario A, at 226 dpa) to reflect the limited evidence of worsening

housing market signals in the Burnley and Pendle HMA. As noted in Section

3.0, it is NLP’s judgement that any uplift would also need to incorporate past

under-delivery (of 220 dwellings in Pendle, or 12 dpa over 19 years) as this is a

further indicator of market stress in the Borough according to the Practice

Guidance.

5.13 Hence it is considered that a reasonable additional supply response to a

worsening trend for certain market signals would justify a figure of around 250

dpa at the lower end of the OAN range.

5.14 For Pendle Borough, Scenario J produced the highest requirement, of 416 dpa,

but there is concern with how this modelling translates employment land to

jobs. This is because it is considered that Scenario J, would indicate levels of

job growth that are unrealistically high for Pendle, particularly when set against

levels of job growth achieved even before the recession. Judging the extent to

which the jobs on this use class B land would be genuinely ‘new’ to Pendle is

very difficult and fraught with uncertainty. Hence, whilst the scenario and the

two sensitivity tests (which represent policy choices for the Council to make)

are useful comparators, the extent to which they should inform the housing

OAN in the case of Pendle is questionable.

5.15 This is particularly so given the underlying assumptions and evidence base, as

well as the fact that the quality of much of the existing business premises in the

HMA is poor, contributing to a comparatively high proportion of relocations.


7209442v17 P43

Therefore although still useful, this scenario should be excluded from the

defined OAN range for Pendle, as with the previous 2013 SHMA.

5.16 At the top end of the range, it is suggested that the CLG (interim) 2011-based

Household Projections (312 dpa, or around 340 dpa if you incorporate a similar

uplift to allow for adverse market signals) should be used. This is on the

grounds that the Practice Guidance requires the CLG household projections to

comprise the ‘starting point’ for identifying housing OAN, even though their

continuing validity is thrown into question due to the substantial divergence

between the 2011-based (interim) SNPP upon which they are based, and the

more robust 2012-based SNPP, which supersede them.

5.17 Whilst we have the latest 2012-based SNPP for Pendle, CLG has not yet

released the equivalent household projections which would, according to the

Practice Guidance, form the ‘starting point’ for identifying housing need in the

Borough. Nevertheless, we have attempted to model an approximation of what

this level of household growth might be, applying the 2012-based SNPP to a

variety of headship rate assumptions in Scenarios A-Ad.

5.18 It is therefore impossible for NLP to estimate the precise extent to which the

2012-based CLG household projections will differ from the 2011-based

(interim) household projections. However, given the significantly lower

population projections upon which they will be based, it is reasonable to

assume that the 2012-based household projections will be lower than their

2011-based equivalents. Hence, whilst we have retained it as a scenario, and

whilst it defines the top end of the range, it is NLP’s judgement that less weight

can be attached to these projections in the case of Pendle.

5.19 Therefore until the 2012-based household projections are made available in

autumn 2014, the 2011-based equivalents remain a valid consideration in line

with the Practice Guidance, although it is expected that the 2012-based

projections will be lower.

5.20 On this basis, it is suggested that the OAN housing range for Pendle should be

modified, from the 280 dpa to 320 dpa in the 2013 SHMA, to between 250 dpa

and 340 dpa. This range would encompass all of the economic-led projections

with the exception of the ELR Past Take Up Job Growth scenario, which would

be a policy choice for PBC to take in defining its housing requirement. This

range would also allow the Borough to meet its demographically driven

housing need in full. The lower end of the range is reduced to reflect the lower

population growth projected in the latest 2012-based SNPP; the top end

increased slightly to reflect the uplift necessary for adverse market signals.

Conclusion

5.21 This report has tested the on-going validity of the housing requirements

identified in the 2013 Burnley and Pendle SHMA in the light of recently

released demographic data and population projections. Specifically, this has

sought to address the implications of the 2012-based SNPP, which indicate a

substantial reduction in population growth to 2030 when compared to the now


P44 7209442v17

superseded 2011-based (interim) and 2010-based SNPPs which underpinned

the 2013 SHMA modelling work.

5.22 Having modelled the latest 2012-based SNPP and related statistics on

vacancy rates, unemployment and commuting, it is considered that the original

range of between 280 dpa and 320 dpa for Pendle Borough should be

amended to reflect the change to the lower level of growth expected through

the 2012-based projections.

5.23 We suggest that taking this evidence into account and applying the same

considerations to market signals (see above) whilst making a minor adjustment

to household formation rates to take into account the moderately adverse

housing market signals including past under-delivery of housing, would point to

a range of 250 dpa to 340 dpa for Pendle. This would, at a minimum, meet

need and demand arising from future projected demographic change within the

Borough, whilst also supporting economic growth, and delivering affordable

housing to respond to identified local needs.

5.24 It is considered that this range comprises the Full Objectively Assessed Need

[FOAN] for Housing in Pendle Borough, leaving aside policy considerations.

Recently there have been a number of High Court and Court of Appeal

judgements concerning how PBC might identify their housing requirement, as

differentiated from FOAN. Prominent amongst these judgements are the

Hunston14 and Solihull15 cases.

5.25 Taking the Hunston judgement into account, there are three key steps that

must be followed by LPAs when identifying the FOAN for housing:

1 Identify the FOAN for market and affordable housing in the area, as far

as is consistent with the Framework. This FOAN cannot be suppressed,

either by reference to revoked RS spatial development principles, or by

supply constraints. The RS figures no longer hold any weight, and the

CLG household projections comprise a starting point for assessment

(although, as these are trend-based, they could under-estimate housing

need). The FOAN comprises the 250 dpa to 340 dpa range defined

above;

2 Examine whether any constraints exist that would prevent the LPA from

meeting the full OAN within its own area; and,

3 Consider the OAN for housing across the whole of the HMA to test

whether a shortfall in one area could be addressed elsewhere.

5.26 As to what housing requirements should specifically consider, the Solihull

judgement helpfully dealt with the different concepts and terms in play, and

defined the ‘housing requirement’ (as distinct from FOAN) as follows:

iii) “Housing Requirement: This is the figure which reflects, not

only the assessed need for housing, but also any policy

14

St Albans City and District Council v (1) Hunston Properties Limited and (2) Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government [2013] EWCA Civ 1610 15

Gallagher Homes Limited and Lioncourt Homes Limited v Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council [2014] EWHC 1283 (Admin)


7209442v17 P45

considerations that might require that figure to be

manipulated to determine the actual housing target for an

area. For example, built development in an area might be

constrained by the extent of land which is the subject of policy

protection, such as Green Belts or AONBs. Or it might be decided,

as a matter of policy, to encourage or discourage particular

migration reflected in demographic trends. Once these policy

considerations have been applied to the figure for FOAN for

housing in an area, the result is a ‘policy on’ figure for housing

requirement. Subject to it being determined by a proper process,

the housing requirement figure will be a target against which

housing supply will normally be measured.” [§37, NLP emphasis]

5.27 Therefore the approach to be taken to setting housing requirements must be

grounded in this background evidence of ‘need’ within the HMA, and this

evidence will inform the Council’s strategy making process, which will identify

the housing ‘requirement’, with any figure being above the demographic

baseline.

5.28 In this regard, to ensure compliance with national planning policy, providing a

level of housing significantly below 250 dpa would mean that Pendle is not

meeting its own housing FOAN. Without sufficient mitigation measures in

place to avoid the adverse housing, economic and other outcomes that a

lower-growth approach could give rise to, a lower housing requirement would

be inappropriate unless (and in accordance with The Framework §14) Pendle

could robustly demonstrate that the “adverse impacts of doing so would

significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits.” This may require PBC to

explore the extent to which any shortfall could be met in neighbouring

authorities within the same HMA (i.e. Burnley).

5.29 Within all this, it is important to recognise that the statistics upon which the

housing needs model is based are updated and adjusted on a regular basis,

with more detailed 2012-based 25-year forward household projections likely to

be made available by CLG in autumn 2014. As the LPA progresses towards

its Local Plan EiP, it will be important for it to ensure that its housing figures

remain under regular review, taking into account new and more detailed

evidence as it emerges.

5.30 It is also important to remember that, whilst the evidence within this statement

takes into consideration the need and demand for housing, crucially it does not

seek to make a planning or policy judgement – this is a matter for the planning

authority taking account of the information before them. This statement

therefore seeks to stimulate the further consideration of all relevant factors

through the appropriate Local Plan process, with the revised housing and

demographic data feeding into the Employment Land Review Update on an

iterative basis.


7209442v17

Appendix 1 Inputs and Assumptions

7209442v17

DEMOGRAPHIC Scenario A: Baseline (Scenario Aa-Ad Headship Sensitivities) Scenario B: Natural

Change

Scenario C – Zero Net

Migration

Scenarios D/E –

Short/Long term

Migration

Population

Baseline

Population

A 2011 and 2012 baseline population is taken from the 2011/2012 Mid-year population estimates for Pendle Borough, split by age cohort and gender. For Scenario

A and the sensitivities, the populations for 2012-2031 are constrained to the 2012-based SNPP for the Borough, by age and sex.

Births Future change assumed in the Total Fertility Rate [TFR] uses the birth projections from the ONS 2012-based Interim SNPP. This in turn is used to derive future

projected TFRs through PopGroup.

Deaths Future change assumed in the SMR uses the death projections from the ONS 2012-based Interim SNPP. This in turn is used to derive future projected SMRs

through PopGroup.

Internal Migration Gross domestic in and out migration flows are adopted based on forecast

migration in the Borough from the ONS 2012-based SNPP for the actual

internal migration flows 2012-2030. This is the sum of internal migration

(elsewhere in England) and cross-border migration (elsewhere in the UK)

(SNPP Table 5). Internal migration includes moves to all other Local

Authority areas, including to neighbouring areas (i.e. a move of two

streets might be classed as internal migration if it involves a move to

another LA area).

Migration flows in and

out of the Borough are

set at zero post 2012.

Gross domestic in and out

migration flows are adopted

based on forecast migration

in the Borough from the ONS

2012-based SNPP for the

actual internal migration

flows 2011-2030. To achieve

zero net migration the

difference between in and

out flows is split to equalise

the in and out flows at the

middle point of the two.

Gross domestic internal

migration flows are

adopted based on

average gross past

trends for the past 5/10

years.

International

Migration

Gross international in and out migration flows are adopted based on

forecast migration in the Borough from the ONS 2012-based SNPP for the

actual internal migration flows 2012-2031.

As above, but for

international rather than

internal migration.

As above, but for

international rather than

internal migration.

Gross international

migration flows are

adopted based on

average gross past

trends for the past 5/10

years.

7209442v17


Change


Migration

Scenarios D/E –

Short/Long term

Migration

Propensity to

Migrate (ASMigR)

Age Specific Migration Rates (ASMigR) for both in and out domestic migration are based upon the age profile of migrants to and from the Borough in the 2012-based

SNPP. These identify a migration rate for each age cohort within the Borough (for both in and out flows separately) which is applied to each individual age providing

an Age Specific Migration Rate. This then drives the demographic profile of those people moving into and out of the Borough (but not the total numbers of migrants).

Housing

Headship Rates Headship rates that are specific to PBC and forecast over the period to 2033 were taken from the government data which was used to underpin the 2011-based CLG

household forecasts and applied to the demographic forecasts for each year as output by the PopGroup model. These headship rates were split by age cohort and

by household typology. These are the most up-to-date headship rates available at the time of writing. Beyond 2021 this is assumed to resume the long term trends

identified within the 2008-based household projections with index trends from the 2008-based projections applied to the 2021 end point of the 2011-based household

projections.

For the Baseline sensitivity tests (Aa, Ab, Ac and Ad), a variety of headship rates has been modelled using higher / lower household representation rates post 2021:

• Static = Constant 2021 rate applied for each year post-2021;

• Trend = CLG 2011-based household projection trend continued on a linear basis post 2021;

• Partial Catch Up = Change post 2021 is targeted to partially achieve CLG 2008-based Household Projections end rates by 2033;

• Catch Up = Change post 2021 is targeted to achieve CLG 2008-based Household Projections end rates by 2033.

Post 2033, the rate is held constant.

Population not in

households

The number of population not in households (e.g. those in institutional care) is similarly taken from the assumptions used to underpin the 2011-based CLG

household forecasts. No change is assumed to the rate of this from the CLG identified rate.

Vacancy / 2nd

Home Rate

A vacancy and second homes rate is applied to the number of households, representing the natural vacancies / not permanently occupied homes which occur within

the housing market. This means that more dwellings than households are required to meet needs. The vacancy / second home rate in Pendle Borough totals 6.6%

(estimated using data from the Council Tax Base for Formula Grant Purposes, October 2013), held constant over the forecast period.

7209442v17


Change


Migration

Scenarios D/E –

Short/Long term

Migration

Economic

Economic

Activity Rate

2011 Census Economic Activity Rates used for each age cohort to equate to the 2010 and 2011 economic activity profile for the Borough. From 2012 onwards, an

adjustment has been made to reflect the changes to the State Pension Age; the propensity for people to live longer and retire later; and the growth of part time

opportunities amongst other challenges. The NLP approach mirrors that put forward by Kent County Council in their Technical Paper: “Activity Rate projections to

2036, Research and Evaluation, Business Strategy and Support” (October 2011). The increase in rates, which is most pronounced for women over the age of 60

and males between the ages of 65-69, are gradually increased from 2012 onwards up to 2020, whereby they are held constant across the remainder of the

forecasting period.

Commuting Rate A standard net commuting rate is inferred through the modelling using a Labour Force Ratio which is worked out using the formula: (A) Number of employed workers

living in area ÷ (B) Number of workers who work in the area (number of jobs).

For Pendle Borough, data from the 2011 Census indicates that there were 42,765 economically active Pendle residents between the ages of 16 and 74, of whom

39,324 were in employment. In contrast, in 2011 there were 30,807 jobs in Pendle Borough (BRES), hence a rate of LF ratio of 1.276 (i.e. more people commute out

of Pendle than commute in on a daily basis).

These rates have not been flexed over the forecasting period with no assumed increase or reduction in net commuting rates.

Unemployment To calculate the unemployment rate for Pendle, NLP took the January-December 2010 NOMIS (modelled) unemployment figure (PBC 7.3%) to equate to the 2010

rate; the equivalent 2011 figure (PBC 7.6%) to equate to the 2011 rate; the equivalent 2012 figure (PBC 8.7%) to equate to 2012 and the equivalent 2013 figure

(PBC 8.3%) to equate to 2013.

NLP kept the former figure constant for 2014 and 2015 to reflect initial stabilisation at the current high rate, and then gradually reduced the rate on a linear basis to

the long term average (04-13) (PBC 6.8%) over a five-year time frame. These figures were then held constant to the end of the forecasting period on the grounds

that this is a better reflection of the long-term trend than the current high rate.

7209442v17

ECONOMIC Scenario G. Past Job Trends Scenario H. Experian Job Growth Scenario I: Policy On Job Growth Scenario J: ELR Past Take Up and Ja and

Jb Sensitivity Test

Population

Baseline

Population A 2011 and 2012 baseline population is taken from the 2011/2012 Mid-year population estimates for Pendle Borough, split by age cohort and gender. For Scenario A

and the sensitivities, the populations for 2012-2031 are constrained to the 2012-based SNPP for the Borough, by age and sex.

Births Future change assumed in the Total Fertility Rate [TFR] uses the birth projections from the ONS 2012-based Interim SNPP. This in turn is used to derive future

projected TFRs through PopGroup.

Deaths Future change assumed in the SMR uses the death projections from the ONS 2012-based Interim SNPP. This in turn is used to derive future projected SMRs through

PopGroup.

Internal

Migration

Taking forward past growth in

employment between 2001

and 2012 on a pro-rata basis

to 2030 (equal to a broadly

neutral level of job growth for

Pendle)

A ‘policy-off’ trend-scenario based upon

Experian’s local area-based model,

providing potential unconstrained

employment growth in Pendle (-400

jobs 2012-30)

Internal in-migration and outmigration

is flexed (inflated or deflated) to

achieve the necessary number of

economically active people to

underpin the economy in the Borough

for this employment scenario.

This was based on taking forward the

Council’s realistic economic objectives

whilst factoring in increased economic

growth in the key sectors in line with

regional averages. This provides

unconstrained employment growth in

Pendle Borough of 883 jobs to 2030.

Models the implications of targeting the level

of job growth associated with the past take

up rates scenario in PBC’s ELR. For Pendle,

the net employment land take up figure has

been used, converting the 68 ha gross land

target in PBC’s ELR to 28.29 ha (net) by

discounting the amount of land likely to be

taken up by existing Pendle companies

relocating (2.09ha per annum). Through the

use of localised plot ratios and employment

densities, PBC estimates that this could

result in a net increase of 2,936 jobs 2011-

2030

International

Migration

As above, but for international rather than internal migration.

Propensity to

Migrate

(ASMigR)

Age Specific Migration Rates (ASMigR) for both in and out domestic migration are based upon the age profile of migrants to and from the Borough in the 2012-based

SNPP. These identify a migration rate for each age cohort within the Borough (for both in and out flows separately) which is applied to each individual age providing

an Age Specific Migration Rate. This then drives the demographic profile of those people moving into and out of the Borough (but not the total numbers of migrants).

7209442v17

Housing

Headship

Rates

Headship rates that are specific to PBC and forecast over the period to 2033 were taken from the government data which was used to underpin the 2011-based CLG

household forecasts and applied to the demographic forecasts for each year as output by the PopGroup model. These headship rates were split by age cohort and by

household typology. These are the most up-to-date headship rates available at the time of writing. Beyond 2021 this is assumed to resume the long term trends

identified within the 2008-based household projections with index trends from the 2008-based projections applied to the 2021 end point of the 2011-based household

projections.

Population not

in households

The number of population not in households (e.g. those in institutional care) is similarly taken from the assumptions used to underpin the 2011-based CLG household

forecasts. No change is assumed to the rate of this from the CLG identified rate.

Vacancy / 2nd

Home Rate

A vacancy and second homes rate is applied to the number of households, representing the natural vacancies / not permanently occupied homes which occur within

the housing market. This means that more dwellings than households are required to meet needs. The vacancy / second home rate in Pendle Borough totals 6.6%

(estimated using data from the Council Tax Base for Formula Grant Purposes, October 2013), held constant over the forecast period.

Economic

Economic

Activity Rate

2011 Census Economic Activity Rates used for each age cohort to equate to the 2010 and 2011 economic activity profile for the Borough. From 2012 onwards, an

adjustment has been made to reflect the changes to the State Pension Age; the propensity for people to live longer and retire later; and the growth of part time

opportunities amongst other challenges. The NLP approach mirrors that put forward by Kent County Council in their Technical Paper: “Activity Rate projections to

2036, Research and Evaluation, Business Strategy and Support” (October 2011). The increase in rates, which is most pronounced for women over the age of 60 and

males between the ages of 65-69, are gradually increased from 2012 onwards up to 2020, whereby they are held constant across the remainder of the forecasting

period.

Commuting

Rate

A standard net commuting rate is inferred through the modelling using a Labour Force Ratio which is worked out using the formula: (A) Number of employed workers

living in area ÷ (B) Number of workers who work in the area (number of jobs).

For Pendle Borough, data from the 2011 Census indicates that there were 42,765 economically active Pendle residents between the ages of 16 and 74, of whom

39,324 were in employment. In contrast, in 2011 there were 30,807 jobs in Pendle Borough (BRES), hence a rate of LF ratio of 1.276 (i.e. more people commute out

of Pendle than commute in on a daily basis).

These rates have not been flexed over the forecasting period with no assumed increase or reduction in net commuting rates.

7209442v17

Unemployment To calculate the unemployment rate for Pendle, NLP took the January-December 2010 NOMIS (modelled) unemployment figure (PBC 7.3%) to equate to the 2010

rate; the equivalent 2011 figure (PBC 7.6%) to equate to the 2011 rate; the equivalent 2012 figure (PBC 8.7%) to equate to 2012 and the equivalent 2013 figure (PBC

8.3%) to equate to 2013.

NLP kept the former figure constant for 2014 and 2015 to reflect initial stabilisation at the current high rate, and then gradually reduced the rate on a linear basis to the

long term average (04-13) (PBC 6.8%) over a five-year time frame. These figures were then held constant to the end of the forecasting period on the grounds that this

is a better reflection of the long-term trend than the current high rate.


7209442v17

Appendix 2 PopGroup Summary

Pendle

Scenario A: PopGroup Baseline

2011 2030 Change 2011-30

% Change 2011-30

Population 89,576 93,501 3,925 4%

Households 37,375 41,386 4,012 11%

Dwellings 40,016 44,311 4,295 11%

Size of Labour Force 42,944 42,235 -709 -2%

Number of Jobs 31,254 30,841 -413 -1%

Pendle

Scenario Aa: Static Headship Rates

2011 2030 Change 2011-30

% Change 2011-30

Population 89,576 93,501 3,925 4%

Households 37,375 41,008 3,634 10%

Dwellings 40,016 43,906 3,890 10%


Number of Jobs 31,254 30,841 -413 -1%

Pendle

Scenario Ab: Trend Headship Rates

2011 2030 Change 2011-30

% Change 2011-30

Population 89,576 93,501 3,925 4%

Households 37,375 41,006 3,631 10%

Dwellings 40,016 43,904 3,888 10%


Number of Jobs 31,254 30,841 -413 -1%

Pendle

Scenario Ac: Partial Catch-Up Headship Rates

2011 2030 Change 2011-30

% Change 2011-30

Population 89,576 93,501 3,925 4%

Households 37,375 41,655 4,281 11%

Dwellings 40,016 44,599 4,583 11%


Number of Jobs 31,254 30,841 -413 -1%


7209442v17

Pendle

Scenario Ad: Catch Up Headship Rates

2011 2030 Change 2011-30

% Change 2011-30

Population 89,576 93,501 3,925 4%

Households 37,375 42,284 4,909 13%

Dwellings 40,016 45,272 5,256 13%


Number of Jobs 31,254 30,841 -413 -1%

Pendle

Scenario B: Natural Change

2011 2030 Change 2011-30

% Change 2011-30

Population 89,576 96,943 7,367 8%

Households 37,375 42,265 4,891 13%

Dwellings 40,016 45,252 5,236 13%

Size of Labour Force 42,944 43,090 146 0%

Number of Jobs 31,254 31,465 211 1%

Pendle

Scenario C: Zero Net Migration

2011 2030 Change 2011-30

% Change 2011-30

Population 89,576 97,556 7,980 9%

Households 37,375 42,697 5,322 14%

Dwellings 40,016 45,714 5,698 14%


Number of Jobs 31,254 31,912 658 2%

Pendle

Scenario D: Short Term Migration Trends

2011 2030 Change 2011-30

% Change 2011-30

Population 89,576 93,822 4,246 5%

Households 37,375 41,551 4,177 11%

Dwellings 40,016 44,488 4,472 11%


Number of Jobs 31,254 31,177 -78 0%

Pendle

Scenario E: Long Term Migration Trends

2011 2030 Change 2011-30

% Change 2011-30

Population 89,576 95,516 5,940 7%

Households 37,375 42,178 4,803 13%

Dwellings 40,016 45,158 5,143 13%


Number of Jobs 31,254 31,759 505 2%


7209442v17

PENDLE

Scenario G: Past Trends Job Growth

2011 2030 Change 2011-30

% Change 2011-30

Population 89,576 94,335 4,759 5%

Households 37,375 41,761 4,386 12%

Dwellings 40,016 44,712 4,696 12%

Size of Labour Force 42,944 42,802 -142 0%

Number of Jobs 31,254 31,255 0 0%

Pendle

Scenario H: Experian Job Growth

2011 2030 Change 2011-30

% Change 2011-30

Population 89,576 91,717 2,141 2%

Households 37,375 40,788 3,413 9%

Dwellings 40,016 43,670 3,654 9%

Size of Labour Force 42,944 41,502 -1,442 -3%

Number of Jobs 31,254 30,306 -949 -3%

Pendle

Scenario I: Policy-On Economic Growth

2011 2030 Change 2011-30

% Change 2011-30

Population 89,576 96,777 7,201 8%

Households 37,375 42,662 5,288 14%

Dwellings 40,016 45,677 5,661 14%

Size of Labour Force 42,944 44,011 1,067 2%

Number of Jobs 31,254 32,138 883 3%

Pendle

Scenario J: ELR Take Up Job Growth

2011 2030 Change 2011-30

% Change 2011-30

Population 89,576 102,456 12,880 14%

Households 37,375 44,759 7,384 20%

Dwellings 40,016 47,922 7,906 20%


Number of Jobs 31,254 34,191 2,936 9%

Pendle

Scenario Ja: ELR Past Take Up Commuting Sensitivity

2011 2030 Change 2011-30

% Change 2011-30

Population 89,576 97,953 8,377 9%

Households 37,375 43,098 5,723 15%

Dwellings 40,016 46,144 6,128 15%


Number of Jobs 31,254 34,272 3,017 10%


7209442v17

Pendle

Scenario Jb: ELR Past Take Up Vacancy Sensitivity

2011 2030 Change 2011-30

% Change 2011-30

Population 89,576 102,456 12,880 14%

Households 37,375 44,759 7,384 20%

Dwellings 40,016 46,624 6,608 17%


Number of Jobs 31,254 34,191 2,936 9%


7209442v17

Appendix 3 PopGroup Modelling Outputs

Population Estimates and Forecasts Scenario A: Pendle Baseline

Components of Population Change

Year beginning July 1st …………..

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37

Births

Male 659 678 680 673 668 664 663 658 652 645 640 635 630 625 620 617 614 611 609 609 609 610 611 613 616 619

Female 627 646 648 641 636 632 632 627 621 615 610 605 600 595 591 587 584 582 580 580 580 581 582 584 587 590

All Births 1,286 1,324 1,328 1,314 1,305 1,296 1,295 1,285 1,273 1,260 1,250 1,240 1,230 1,219 1,211 1,204 1,198 1,193 1,190 1,188 1,189 1,190 1,194 1,198 1,203 1,209

TFR 2.18 2.26 2.26 2.24 2.23 2.22 2.23 2.23 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21

Births input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Deaths

Male 390 406 394 386 386 387 385 386 386 388 389 390 394 396 400 406 409 412 418 423 426 430 436 437 441 445

Female 430 435 407 401 391 394 386 384 381 377 377 376 375 377 379 379 382 386 388 394 397 402 406 411 417 420

All deaths 820 840 801 787 778 780 771 770 767 765 766 766 769 773 779 785 792 797 807 817 823 831 842 848 858 865

SMR: males 111.6 113.3 107.6 102.9 100.6 98.3 95.5 93.3 90.9 88.7 86.6 84.5 82.9 81.1 79.6 78.5 77.0 75.4 74.6 73.6 72.2 71.1 70.4 68.9 68.1 67.5

SMR: females 116.2 117.0 109.6 106.7 103.2 102.6 99.6 97.7 95.4 92.8 91.1 89.4 87.4 86.1 84.6 82.7 81.3 80.2 78.8 77.9 76.7 75.7 74.7 73.7 73.1 72.1

SMR: persons 113.9 115.1 108.6 104.8 101.9 100.4 97.5 95.4 93.1 90.7 88.8 86.8 85.1 83.4 81.9 80.5 79.0 77.7 76.5 75.7 74.3 73.3 72.4 71.2 70.4 69.6

Expectation of life: males 77.5 77.3 78.1 78.6 78.8 79.1 79.5 79.7 80.1 80.3 80.6 80.9 81.1 81.5 81.6 81.8 82.0 82.3 82.4 82.6 82.7 82.9 83.0 83.4 83.5 83.6

Expectation of life: females 81.7 81.5 82.6 82.7 83.1 83.2 83.5 83.7 84.0 84.2 84.5 84.7 84.9 85.1 85.3 85.6 85.7 85.9 86.0 86.2 86.3 86.4 86.6 86.9 86.9 87.3

Expectation of life: persons 79.8 79.6 80.5 80.8 81.0 81.2 81.6 81.8 82.1 82.4 82.6 82.9 83.1 83.3 83.5 83.8 83.9 84.1 84.3 84.4 84.5 84.7 84.9 85.2 85.2 85.5

Deaths input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

In-migration from the UK

Male 1,458 1,483 1,485 1,487 1,490 1,491 1,492 1,493 1,492 1,490 1,488 1,486 1,484 1,484 1,485 1,487 1,491 1,495 1,500 1,504 1,508 1,513 1,517 1,520 1,523 1,527

Female 1,506 1,530 1,526 1,524 1,522 1,518 1,514 1,510 1,504 1,498 1,493 1,488 1,484 1,482 1,483 1,485 1,490 1,493 1,498 1,502 1,506 1,510 1,515 1,517 1,520 1,523

All 2,964 3,013 3,012 3,011 3,012 3,009 3,005 3,003 2,996 2,988 2,981 2,973 2,968 2,966 2,968 2,973 2,981 2,989 2,998 3,005 3,014 3,023 3,032 3,038 3,043 3,050

SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Out-migration to the UK

Male 1,789 1,701 1,693 1,692 1,698 1,698 1,699 1,689 1,690 1,689 1,685 1,692 1,695 1,698 1,699 1,711 1,712 1,714 1,715 1,713 1,717 1,721 1,723 1,725 1,728 1,733

Female 1,855 1,741 1,739 1,742 1,735 1,721 1,715 1,713 1,717 1,712 1,703 1,709 1,711 1,715 1,710 1,715 1,723 1,722 1,721 1,723 1,726 1,730 1,733 1,734 1,736 1,738

All 3,644 3,442 3,432 3,434 3,433 3,419 3,414 3,402 3,407 3,401 3,389 3,401 3,406 3,413 3,410 3,426 3,434 3,436 3,436 3,436 3,443 3,450 3,456 3,459 3,465 3,470

SMigR: males 37.9 36.1 36.0 36.1 36.2 36.2 36.3 36.2 36.3 36.3 36.4 36.6 36.7 36.8 36.8 37.0 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.7 36.7 36.8

SMigR: females 38.2 36.5 36.5 36.7 36.7 36.6 36.6 36.7 36.8 36.9 36.8 37.0 37.0 37.1 37.0 37.1 37.2 37.1 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 36.9 37.0 36.9

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

In-migration from Overseas

Male 370 209 207 210 218 213 212 208 209 208 210 209 210 209 210 211 210 210 212 212 214 213 214 214 215 214

Female 398 228 225 226 231 227 224 222 222 221 221 220 220 222 220 220 220 220 220 220 222 222 221 221 223 223

All 768 436 432 437 449 440 435 430 430 428 432 429 431 431 430 431 431 430 432 431 436 435 436 435 438 437

SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Out-migration to Overseas

Male 229 123 120 124 123 124 122 123 123 122 125 124 125 124 125 126 125 125 127 126 128 128 129 128 129 128

Female 289 144 142 143 142 142 138 139 139 138 139 138 138 139 137 137 138 137 138 137 139 139 138 138 140 140

All 517 267 262 267 265 266 260 262 262 261 264 262 263 264 262 263 263 262 264 263 268 267 267 266 269 268

SMigR: males 86.4 46.4 45.6 47.2 46.8 47.3 46.6 47.2 47.6 47.5 48.6 48.5 49.0 48.9 49.3 49.6 49.5 49.3 49.9 49.7 50.5 50.0 50.4 50.1 50.3 49.9

SMigR: females 134.3 68.1 67.4 68.3 68.2 68.2 66.8 67.6 68.1 67.9 68.6 68.5 68.9 70.1 69.0 69.4 69.8 69.5 69.6 69.0 70.2 70.0 69.5 69.0 70.1 70.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Migration - Net Flows

UK -680 -429 -421 -423 -421 -410 -409 -399 -412 -413 -408 -427 -438 -447 -441 -454 -453 -447 -438 -431 -429 -427 -424 -421 -422 -420

Overseas +251 +170 +170 +169 +183 +174 +176 +168 +168 +168 +168 +167 +168 +167 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168

Summary of population change

Natural change +466 +484 +527 +527 +527 +516 +524 +515 +506 +495 +484 +474 +461 +446 +432 +419 +407 +396 +383 +371 +366 +359 +351 +350 +345 +343

Net migration -429 -259 -251 -254 -237 -236 -233 -231 -244 -245 -240 -260 -270 -280 -273 -286 -286 -279 -270 -263 -261 -259 -255 -253 -253 -252

Net change +37 +225 +276 +274 +290 +280 +291 +284 +262 +250 +244 +214 +190 +167 +159 +133 +121 +116 +113 +108 +105 +100 +96 +97 +92 +92

Crude Birth Rate /000 14.35 14.76 14.76 14.56 14.41 14.28 14.21 14.06 13.88 13.71 13.56 13.43 13.28 13.14 13.03 12.94 12.85 12.78 12.73 12.70 12.69 12.70 12.72 12.75 12.79 12.84

Crude Death Rate /000 9.15 9.37 8.90 8.72 8.59 8.59 8.46 8.43 8.37 8.32 8.31 8.30 8.30 8.33 8.38 8.43 8.49 8.54 8.63 8.74 8.78 8.87 8.97 9.02 9.12 9.19

Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -4.79 -2.89 -2.78 -2.81 -2.62 -2.60 -2.56 -2.52 -2.66 -2.67 -2.60 -2.81 -2.92 -3.01 -2.94 -3.07 -3.07 -2.99 -2.89 -2.81 -2.79 -2.76 -2.72 -2.69 -2.69 -2.68

Summary of Population estimates/forecasts

Population at mid-year

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

0-4 6,382 6,424 6,370 6,313 6,274 6,232 6,225 6,200 6,162 6,124 6,083 6,039 5,990 5,940 5,891 5,846 5,805 5,767 5,734 5,707 5,687 5,673 5,667 5,668 5,677 5,692 5,711

5-10 6,572 6,609 6,769 7,026 7,142 7,233 7,236 7,322 7,281 7,226 7,185 7,145 7,134 7,103 7,059 7,014 6,969 6,921 6,867 6,812 6,761 6,715 6,672 6,633 6,600 6,574 6,556

11-15 5,367 5,343 5,272 5,208 5,212 5,310 5,371 5,398 5,628 5,766 5,859 5,902 5,967 5,929 5,893 5,864 5,835 5,826 5,805 5,774 5,742 5,708 5,671 5,628 5,585 5,544 5,505

16-17 2,194 2,175 2,243 2,152 2,099 2,063 2,071 2,118 2,016 2,040 2,155 2,222 2,212 2,276 2,390 2,376 2,355 2,325 2,311 2,323 2,317 2,301 2,290 2,283 2,273 2,257 2,239

18-59Female, 64Male 51,639 51,271 51,052 50,967 50,856 50,681 50,530 50,346 50,294 50,200 50,031 49,879 49,754 49,655 49,528 49,507 49,386 49,286 49,225 49,131 49,037 48,979 48,954 48,961 48,986 48,986 49,051

60/65 -74 10,660 10,935 11,256 11,499 11,812 12,064 12,322 12,487 12,534 12,575 12,651 12,488 12,434 12,448 12,437 12,454 12,637 12,755 12,872 13,007 13,136 13,178 13,203 13,191 13,167 13,134 12,983

75-84 4,814 4,892 4,890 4,946 4,902 4,966 5,051 5,200 5,389 5,576 5,719 6,159 6,498 6,748 7,017 7,233 7,352 7,458 7,480 7,495 7,544 7,442 7,408 7,423 7,436 7,497 7,657

85+ 1,948 1,964 1,984 2,004 2,092 2,127 2,151 2,176 2,228 2,287 2,362 2,454 2,513 2,593 2,646 2,723 2,813 2,934 3,095 3,252 3,384 3,718 3,950 4,123 4,283 4,416 4,489

Total 89,576 89,613 89,838 90,114 90,388 90,677 90,958 91,249 91,532 91,794 92,044 92,288 92,502 92,693 92,859 93,018 93,151 93,272 93,388 93,501 93,609 93,714 93,815 93,911 94,008 94,100 94,191

Dependency ratios, mean age and sex ratio

0-15 / 16-65 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33

65+ / 16-65 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75

Median age males 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.8 37.9 38.1 38.2 38.4 38.6 38.7 38.9 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.6 39.8 40.0 40.1 40.2 40.3 40.4 40.5

Median age females 38.8 39.1 39.2 39.3 39.4 39.5 39.5 39.6 39.7 39.8 39.9 40.1 40.4 40.6 40.8 41.0 41.2 41.4 41.6 41.8 42.0 42.2 42.3 42.5 42.6 42.8 42.9

Sex ratio males /100 females 96.8 97.1 97.2 97.3 97.5 97.6 97.7 97.7 97.8 97.9 98.0 98.1 98.2 98.2 98.3 98.4 98.4 98.4 98.5 98.5 98.5 98.5 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.7 98.7

Population impact of constraint

Number of persons -115 +3 +3 +3 +3 +3 +3 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +1 +2 +1 +2 +1 +1 +2 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2

Households

Number of Households 37,375 37,583 37,781 38,007 38,217 38,463 38,685 38,864 39,081 39,266 39,460 39,719 39,950 40,179 40,394 40,636 40,863 41,045 41,224 41,386 41,545 41,648 41,779 41,903 42,012 42,112 42,201

Change in Households over previous year-308 +208 +198 +226 +210 +246 +221 +180 +217 +185 +194 +259 +231 +229 +214 +243 +227 +182 +179 +162 +159 +103 +131 +125 +109 +100 +89

Number of supply units 40,016 40,238 40,450 40,692 40,918 41,181 41,418 41,611 41,843 42,041 42,248 42,526 42,774 43,019 43,248 43,508 43,751 43,946 44,137 44,311 44,481 44,591 44,731 44,864 44,981 45,088 45,183

Change in over previous year -329 +222 +212 +242 +225 +264 +237 +192 +232 +198 +208 +278 +248 +245 +230 +260 +243 +195 +192 +174 +170 +110 +140 +133 +116 +107 +95

Labour Force

Number of Labour Force 42,944 42,836 42,790 42,818 42,773 42,801 42,764 42,700 42,751 42,765 42,720 42,613 42,536 42,496 42,454 42,414 42,308 42,266 42,249 42,235 42,210 42,175 42,166 42,174 42,180 42,169 42,173

Change in Labour Force over previous year+0 -108 -45 +27 -45 +28 -37 -64 +51 +13 -45 -107 -77 -40 -42 -40 -106 -41 -18 -14 -25 -35 -9 +9 +6 -11 +4


Change in over previous year +0 -549 +34 +20 -32 +121 +74 +55 +138 +111 -33 -78 -56 -29 -30 -29 -78 -30 -13 -10 -18 -26 -6 +6 +4 -8 +3

Population Estimates and Forecasts Scenario Aa: Pendle Baseline + Static



2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37

Births

Male 659 678 680 673 668 664 663 658 652 645 640 635 630 625 620 617 614 611 609 609 609 610 611 613 616 619

Female 627 646 648 641 636 632 632 627 621 615 610 605 600 595 591 587 584 582 580 580 580 581 582 584 587 590

All Births 1,286 1,324 1,328 1,314 1,305 1,296 1,295 1,285 1,273 1,260 1,250 1,240 1,230 1,219 1,211 1,204 1,198 1,193 1,190 1,188 1,189 1,190 1,194 1,198 1,203 1,209

TFR 2.18 2.26 2.26 2.24 2.23 2.22 2.23 2.23 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21

Births input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Deaths

Male 390 406 394 386 386 387 385 386 386 388 389 390 394 396 400 406 409 412 418 423 426 430 436 437 441 445

Female 430 435 407 401 391 394 386 384 381 377 377 376 375 377 379 379 382 386 388 394 397 402 406 411 417 420

All deaths 820 840 801 787 778 780 771 770 767 765 766 766 769 773 779 785 792 797 807 817 823 831 842 848 858 865

SMR: males 111.6 113.3 107.6 102.9 100.6 98.3 95.5 93.3 90.9 88.7 86.6 84.5 82.9 81.1 79.6 78.5 77.0 75.4 74.6 73.6 72.2 71.1 70.4 68.9 68.1 67.5

SMR: females 116.2 117.0 109.6 106.7 103.2 102.6 99.6 97.7 95.4 92.8 91.1 89.4 87.4 86.1 84.6 82.7 81.3 80.2 78.8 77.9 76.7 75.7 74.7 73.7 73.1 72.1

SMR: persons 113.9 115.1 108.6 104.8 101.9 100.4 97.5 95.4 93.1 90.7 88.8 86.8 85.1 83.4 81.9 80.5 79.0 77.7 76.5 75.7 74.3 73.3 72.4 71.2 70.4 69.6




Deaths input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,458 1,483 1,485 1,487 1,490 1,491 1,492 1,493 1,492 1,490 1,488 1,486 1,484 1,484 1,485 1,487 1,491 1,495 1,500 1,504 1,508 1,513 1,517 1,520 1,523 1,527

Female 1,506 1,530 1,526 1,524 1,522 1,518 1,514 1,510 1,504 1,498 1,493 1,488 1,484 1,482 1,483 1,485 1,490 1,493 1,498 1,502 1,506 1,510 1,515 1,517 1,520 1,523

All 2,964 3,013 3,012 3,011 3,012 3,009 3,005 3,003 2,996 2,988 2,981 2,973 2,968 2,966 2,968 2,973 2,981 2,989 2,998 3,005 3,014 3,023 3,032 3,038 3,043 3,050

SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,789 1,701 1,693 1,692 1,698 1,698 1,699 1,689 1,690 1,689 1,685 1,692 1,695 1,698 1,699 1,711 1,712 1,714 1,715 1,713 1,717 1,721 1,723 1,725 1,728 1,733

Female 1,855 1,741 1,739 1,742 1,735 1,721 1,715 1,713 1,717 1,712 1,703 1,709 1,711 1,715 1,710 1,715 1,723 1,722 1,721 1,723 1,726 1,730 1,733 1,734 1,736 1,738

All 3,644 3,442 3,432 3,434 3,433 3,419 3,414 3,402 3,407 3,401 3,389 3,401 3,406 3,413 3,410 3,426 3,434 3,436 3,436 3,436 3,443 3,450 3,456 3,459 3,465 3,470

SMigR: males 37.9 36.1 36.0 36.1 36.2 36.2 36.3 36.2 36.3 36.3 36.4 36.6 36.7 36.8 36.8 37.0 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.7 36.7 36.8

SMigR: females 38.2 36.5 36.5 36.7 36.7 36.6 36.6 36.7 36.8 36.9 36.8 37.0 37.0 37.1 37.0 37.1 37.2 37.1 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 36.9 37.0 36.9

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 370 209 207 210 218 213 212 208 209 208 210 209 210 209 210 211 210 210 212 212 214 213 214 214 215 214

Female 398 228 225 226 231 227 224 222 222 221 221 220 220 222 220 220 220 220 220 220 222 222 221 221 223 223

All 768 436 432 437 449 440 435 430 430 428 432 429 431 431 430 431 431 430 432 431 436 435 436 435 438 437


Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 229 123 120 124 123 124 122 123 123 122 125 124 125 124 125 126 125 125 127 126 128 128 129 128 129 128

Female 289 144 142 143 142 142 138 139 139 138 139 138 138 139 137 137 138 137 138 137 139 139 138 138 140 140

All 517 267 262 267 265 266 260 262 262 261 264 262 263 264 262 263 263 262 264 263 268 267 267 266 269 268

SMigR: males 86.4 46.4 45.6 47.2 46.8 47.3 46.6 47.2 47.6 47.5 48.6 48.5 49.0 48.9 49.3 49.6 49.5 49.3 49.9 49.7 50.5 50.0 50.4 50.1 50.3 49.9

SMigR: females 134.3 68.1 67.4 68.3 68.2 68.2 66.8 67.6 68.1 67.9 68.6 68.5 68.9 70.1 69.0 69.4 69.8 69.5 69.6 69.0 70.2 70.0 69.5 69.0 70.1 70.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK -680 -429 -421 -423 -421 -410 -409 -399 -412 -413 -408 -427 -438 -447 -441 -454 -453 -447 -438 -431 -429 -427 -424 -421 -422 -420

Overseas +251 +170 +170 +169 +183 +174 +176 +168 +168 +168 +168 +167 +168 +167 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168


Natural change +466 +484 +527 +527 +527 +516 +524 +515 +506 +495 +484 +474 +461 +446 +432 +419 +407 +396 +383 +371 +366 +359 +351 +350 +345 +343

Net migration -429 -259 -251 -254 -237 -236 -233 -231 -244 -245 -240 -260 -270 -280 -273 -286 -286 -279 -270 -263 -261 -259 -255 -253 -253 -252

Net change +37 +225 +276 +274 +290 +280 +291 +284 +262 +250 +244 +214 +190 +167 +159 +133 +121 +116 +113 +108 +105 +100 +96 +97 +92 +92

Crude Birth Rate /000 14.35 14.76 14.76 14.56 14.41 14.28 14.21 14.06 13.88 13.71 13.56 13.43 13.28 13.14 13.03 12.94 12.85 12.78 12.73 12.70 12.69 12.70 12.72 12.75 12.79 12.84

Crude Death Rate /000 9.15 9.37 8.90 8.72 8.59 8.59 8.46 8.43 8.37 8.32 8.31 8.30 8.30 8.33 8.38 8.43 8.49 8.54 8.63 8.74 8.78 8.87 8.97 9.02 9.12 9.19




2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

0-4 6,382 6,424 6,370 6,313 6,274 6,232 6,225 6,200 6,162 6,124 6,083 6,039 5,990 5,940 5,891 5,846 5,805 5,767 5,734 5,707 5,687 5,673 5,667 5,668 5,677 5,692 5,711

5-10 6,572 6,609 6,769 7,026 7,142 7,233 7,236 7,322 7,281 7,226 7,185 7,145 7,134 7,103 7,059 7,014 6,969 6,921 6,867 6,812 6,761 6,715 6,672 6,633 6,600 6,574 6,556

11-15 5,367 5,343 5,272 5,208 5,212 5,310 5,371 5,398 5,628 5,766 5,859 5,902 5,967 5,929 5,893 5,864 5,835 5,826 5,805 5,774 5,742 5,708 5,671 5,628 5,585 5,544 5,505

16-17 2,194 2,175 2,243 2,152 2,099 2,063 2,071 2,118 2,016 2,040 2,155 2,222 2,212 2,276 2,390 2,376 2,355 2,325 2,311 2,323 2,317 2,301 2,290 2,283 2,273 2,257 2,239

18-59Female, 64Male 51,639 51,271 51,052 50,967 50,856 50,681 50,530 50,346 50,294 50,200 50,031 49,879 49,754 49,655 49,528 49,507 49,386 49,286 49,225 49,131 49,037 48,979 48,954 48,961 48,986 48,986 49,051

60/65 -74 10,660 10,935 11,256 11,499 11,812 12,064 12,322 12,487 12,534 12,575 12,651 12,488 12,434 12,448 12,437 12,454 12,637 12,755 12,872 13,007 13,136 13,178 13,203 13,191 13,167 13,134 12,983

75-84 4,814 4,892 4,890 4,946 4,902 4,966 5,051 5,200 5,389 5,576 5,719 6,159 6,498 6,748 7,017 7,233 7,352 7,458 7,480 7,495 7,544 7,442 7,408 7,423 7,436 7,497 7,657

85+ 1,948 1,964 1,984 2,004 2,092 2,127 2,151 2,176 2,228 2,287 2,362 2,454 2,513 2,593 2,646 2,723 2,813 2,934 3,095 3,252 3,384 3,718 3,950 4,123 4,283 4,416 4,489

Total 89,576 89,613 89,838 90,114 90,388 90,677 90,958 91,249 91,532 91,794 92,044 92,288 92,502 92,693 92,859 93,018 93,151 93,272 93,388 93,501 93,609 93,714 93,815 93,911 94,008 94,100 94,191


0-15 / 16-65 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33

65+ / 16-65 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75

Median age males 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.8 37.9 38.1 38.2 38.4 38.6 38.7 38.9 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.6 39.8 40.0 40.1 40.2 40.3 40.4 40.5





Households





Labour Force





Population Estimates and Forecasts Scenario Ab: Pendle Baseline + Trend



2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37

Births

Male 659 678 680 673 668 664 663 658 652 645 640 635 630 625 620 617 614 611 609 609 609 610 611 613 616 619

Female 627 646 648 641 636 632 632 627 621 615 610 605 600 595 591 587 584 582 580 580 580 581 582 584 587 590

All Births 1,286 1,324 1,328 1,314 1,305 1,296 1,295 1,285 1,273 1,260 1,250 1,240 1,230 1,219 1,211 1,204 1,198 1,193 1,190 1,188 1,189 1,190 1,194 1,198 1,203 1,209

TFR 2.18 2.26 2.26 2.24 2.23 2.22 2.23 2.23 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21

Births input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Deaths

Male 390 406 394 386 386 387 385 386 386 388 389 390 394 396 400 406 409 412 418 423 426 430 436 437 441 445

Female 430 435 407 401 391 394 386 384 381 377 377 376 375 377 379 379 382 386 388 394 397 402 406 411 417 420

All deaths 820 840 801 787 778 780 771 770 767 765 766 766 769 773 779 785 792 797 807 817 823 831 842 848 858 865

SMR: males 111.6 113.3 107.6 102.9 100.6 98.3 95.5 93.3 90.9 88.7 86.6 84.5 82.9 81.1 79.6 78.5 77.0 75.4 74.6 73.6 72.2 71.1 70.4 68.9 68.1 67.5

SMR: females 116.2 117.0 109.6 106.7 103.2 102.6 99.6 97.7 95.4 92.8 91.1 89.4 87.4 86.1 84.6 82.7 81.3 80.2 78.8 77.9 76.7 75.7 74.7 73.7 73.1 72.1

SMR: persons 113.9 115.1 108.6 104.8 101.9 100.4 97.5 95.4 93.1 90.7 88.8 86.8 85.1 83.4 81.9 80.5 79.0 77.7 76.5 75.7 74.3 73.3 72.4 71.2 70.4 69.6




Deaths input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,458 1,483 1,485 1,487 1,490 1,491 1,492 1,493 1,492 1,490 1,488 1,486 1,484 1,484 1,485 1,487 1,491 1,495 1,500 1,504 1,508 1,513 1,517 1,520 1,523 1,527

Female 1,506 1,530 1,526 1,524 1,522 1,518 1,514 1,510 1,504 1,498 1,493 1,488 1,484 1,482 1,483 1,485 1,490 1,493 1,498 1,502 1,506 1,510 1,515 1,517 1,520 1,523

All 2,964 3,013 3,012 3,011 3,012 3,009 3,005 3,003 2,996 2,988 2,981 2,973 2,968 2,966 2,968 2,973 2,981 2,989 2,998 3,005 3,014 3,023 3,032 3,038 3,043 3,050

SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,789 1,701 1,693 1,692 1,698 1,698 1,699 1,689 1,690 1,689 1,685 1,692 1,695 1,698 1,699 1,711 1,712 1,714 1,715 1,713 1,717 1,721 1,723 1,725 1,728 1,733

Female 1,855 1,741 1,739 1,742 1,735 1,721 1,715 1,713 1,717 1,712 1,703 1,709 1,711 1,715 1,710 1,715 1,723 1,722 1,721 1,723 1,726 1,730 1,733 1,734 1,736 1,738

All 3,644 3,442 3,432 3,434 3,433 3,419 3,414 3,402 3,407 3,401 3,389 3,401 3,406 3,413 3,410 3,426 3,434 3,436 3,436 3,436 3,443 3,450 3,456 3,459 3,465 3,470

SMigR: males 37.9 36.1 36.0 36.1 36.2 36.2 36.3 36.2 36.3 36.3 36.4 36.6 36.7 36.8 36.8 37.0 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.7 36.7 36.8

SMigR: females 38.2 36.5 36.5 36.7 36.7 36.6 36.6 36.7 36.8 36.9 36.8 37.0 37.0 37.1 37.0 37.1 37.2 37.1 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 36.9 37.0 36.9

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 370 209 207 210 218 213 212 208 209 208 210 209 210 209 210 211 210 210 212 212 214 213 214 214 215 214

Female 398 228 225 226 231 227 224 222 222 221 221 220 220 222 220 220 220 220 220 220 222 222 221 221 223 223

All 768 436 432 437 449 440 435 430 430 428 432 429 431 431 430 431 431 430 432 431 436 435 436 435 438 437


Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 229 123 120 124 123 124 122 123 123 122 125 124 125 124 125 126 125 125 127 126 128 128 129 128 129 128

Female 289 144 142 143 142 142 138 139 139 138 139 138 138 139 137 137 138 137 138 137 139 139 138 138 140 140

All 517 267 262 267 265 266 260 262 262 261 264 262 263 264 262 263 263 262 264 263 268 267 267 266 269 268

SMigR: males 86.4 46.4 45.6 47.2 46.8 47.3 46.6 47.2 47.6 47.5 48.6 48.5 49.0 48.9 49.3 49.6 49.5 49.3 49.9 49.7 50.5 50.0 50.4 50.1 50.3 49.9

SMigR: females 134.3 68.1 67.4 68.3 68.2 68.2 66.8 67.6 68.1 67.9 68.6 68.5 68.9 70.1 69.0 69.4 69.8 69.5 69.6 69.0 70.2 70.0 69.5 69.0 70.1 70.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK -680 -429 -421 -423 -421 -410 -409 -399 -412 -413 -408 -427 -438 -447 -441 -454 -453 -447 -438 -431 -429 -427 -424 -421 -422 -420

Overseas +251 +170 +170 +169 +183 +174 +176 +168 +168 +168 +168 +167 +168 +167 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168


Natural change +466 +484 +527 +527 +527 +516 +524 +515 +506 +495 +484 +474 +461 +446 +432 +419 +407 +396 +383 +371 +366 +359 +351 +350 +345 +343

Net migration -429 -259 -251 -254 -237 -236 -233 -231 -244 -245 -240 -260 -270 -280 -273 -286 -286 -279 -270 -263 -261 -259 -255 -253 -253 -252

Net change +37 +225 +276 +274 +290 +280 +291 +284 +262 +250 +244 +214 +190 +167 +159 +133 +121 +116 +113 +108 +105 +100 +96 +97 +92 +92

Crude Birth Rate /000 14.35 14.76 14.76 14.56 14.41 14.28 14.21 14.06 13.88 13.71 13.56 13.43 13.28 13.14 13.03 12.94 12.85 12.78 12.73 12.70 12.69 12.70 12.72 12.75 12.79 12.84

Crude Death Rate /000 9.15 9.37 8.90 8.72 8.59 8.59 8.46 8.43 8.37 8.32 8.31 8.30 8.30 8.33 8.38 8.43 8.49 8.54 8.63 8.74 8.78 8.87 8.97 9.02 9.12 9.19




2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

0-4 6,382 6,424 6,370 6,313 6,274 6,232 6,225 6,200 6,162 6,124 6,083 6,039 5,990 5,940 5,891 5,846 5,805 5,767 5,734 5,707 5,687 5,673 5,667 5,668 5,677 5,692 5,711

5-10 6,572 6,609 6,769 7,026 7,142 7,233 7,236 7,322 7,281 7,226 7,185 7,145 7,134 7,103 7,059 7,014 6,969 6,921 6,867 6,812 6,761 6,715 6,672 6,633 6,600 6,574 6,556

11-15 5,367 5,343 5,272 5,208 5,212 5,310 5,371 5,398 5,628 5,766 5,859 5,902 5,967 5,929 5,893 5,864 5,835 5,826 5,805 5,774 5,742 5,708 5,671 5,628 5,585 5,544 5,505

16-17 2,194 2,175 2,243 2,152 2,099 2,063 2,071 2,118 2,016 2,040 2,155 2,222 2,212 2,276 2,390 2,376 2,355 2,325 2,311 2,323 2,317 2,301 2,290 2,283 2,273 2,257 2,239

18-59Female, 64Male 51,639 51,271 51,052 50,967 50,856 50,681 50,530 50,346 50,294 50,200 50,031 49,879 49,754 49,655 49,528 49,507 49,386 49,286 49,225 49,131 49,037 48,979 48,954 48,961 48,986 48,986 49,051

60/65 -74 10,660 10,935 11,256 11,499 11,812 12,064 12,322 12,487 12,534 12,575 12,651 12,488 12,434 12,448 12,437 12,454 12,637 12,755 12,872 13,007 13,136 13,178 13,203 13,191 13,167 13,134 12,983

75-84 4,814 4,892 4,890 4,946 4,902 4,966 5,051 5,200 5,389 5,576 5,719 6,159 6,498 6,748 7,017 7,233 7,352 7,458 7,480 7,495 7,544 7,442 7,408 7,423 7,436 7,497 7,657

85+ 1,948 1,964 1,984 2,004 2,092 2,127 2,151 2,176 2,228 2,287 2,362 2,454 2,513 2,593 2,646 2,723 2,813 2,934 3,095 3,252 3,384 3,718 3,950 4,123 4,283 4,416 4,489

Total 89,576 89,613 89,838 90,114 90,388 90,677 90,958 91,249 91,532 91,794 92,044 92,288 92,502 92,693 92,859 93,018 93,151 93,272 93,388 93,501 93,609 93,714 93,815 93,911 94,008 94,100 94,191


0-15 / 16-65 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33

65+ / 16-65 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75

Median age males 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.8 37.9 38.1 38.2 38.4 38.6 38.7 38.9 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.6 39.8 40.0 40.1 40.2 40.3 40.4 40.5





Households





Labour Force





Population Estimates and Forecasts Scenario Ac: Pendle Baseline + Partial Catch Up



2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37

Births

Male 659 678 680 673 668 664 663 658 652 645 640 635 630 625 620 617 614 611 609 609 609 610 611 613 616 619

Female 627 646 648 641 636 632 632 627 621 615 610 605 600 595 591 587 584 582 580 580 580 581 582 584 587 590

All Births 1,286 1,324 1,328 1,314 1,305 1,296 1,295 1,285 1,273 1,260 1,250 1,240 1,230 1,219 1,211 1,204 1,198 1,193 1,190 1,188 1,189 1,190 1,194 1,198 1,203 1,209

TFR 2.18 2.26 2.26 2.24 2.23 2.22 2.23 2.23 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21

Births input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Deaths

Male 390 406 394 386 386 387 385 386 386 388 389 390 394 396 400 406 409 412 418 423 426 430 436 437 441 445

Female 430 435 407 401 391 394 386 384 381 377 377 376 375 377 379 379 382 386 388 394 397 402 406 411 417 420

All deaths 820 840 801 787 778 780 771 770 767 765 766 766 769 773 779 785 792 797 807 817 823 831 842 848 858 865

SMR: males 111.6 113.3 107.6 102.9 100.6 98.3 95.5 93.3 90.9 88.7 86.6 84.5 82.9 81.1 79.6 78.5 77.0 75.4 74.6 73.6 72.2 71.1 70.4 68.9 68.1 67.5

SMR: females 116.2 117.0 109.6 106.7 103.2 102.6 99.6 97.7 95.4 92.8 91.1 89.4 87.4 86.1 84.6 82.7 81.3 80.2 78.8 77.9 76.7 75.7 74.7 73.7 73.1 72.1

SMR: persons 113.9 115.1 108.6 104.8 101.9 100.4 97.5 95.4 93.1 90.7 88.8 86.8 85.1 83.4 81.9 80.5 79.0 77.7 76.5 75.7 74.3 73.3 72.4 71.2 70.4 69.6




Deaths input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,458 1,483 1,485 1,487 1,490 1,491 1,492 1,493 1,492 1,490 1,488 1,486 1,484 1,484 1,485 1,487 1,491 1,495 1,500 1,504 1,508 1,513 1,517 1,520 1,523 1,527

Female 1,506 1,530 1,526 1,524 1,522 1,518 1,514 1,510 1,504 1,498 1,493 1,488 1,484 1,482 1,483 1,485 1,490 1,493 1,498 1,502 1,506 1,510 1,515 1,517 1,520 1,523

All 2,964 3,013 3,012 3,011 3,012 3,009 3,005 3,003 2,996 2,988 2,981 2,973 2,968 2,966 2,968 2,973 2,981 2,989 2,998 3,005 3,014 3,023 3,032 3,038 3,043 3,050

SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,789 1,701 1,693 1,692 1,698 1,698 1,699 1,689 1,690 1,689 1,685 1,692 1,695 1,698 1,699 1,711 1,712 1,714 1,715 1,713 1,717 1,721 1,723 1,725 1,728 1,733

Female 1,855 1,741 1,739 1,742 1,735 1,721 1,715 1,713 1,717 1,712 1,703 1,709 1,711 1,715 1,710 1,715 1,723 1,722 1,721 1,723 1,726 1,730 1,733 1,734 1,736 1,738

All 3,644 3,442 3,432 3,434 3,433 3,419 3,414 3,402 3,407 3,401 3,389 3,401 3,406 3,413 3,410 3,426 3,434 3,436 3,436 3,436 3,443 3,450 3,456 3,459 3,465 3,470

SMigR: males 37.9 36.1 36.0 36.1 36.2 36.2 36.3 36.2 36.3 36.3 36.4 36.6 36.7 36.8 36.8 37.0 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.7 36.7 36.8

SMigR: females 38.2 36.5 36.5 36.7 36.7 36.6 36.6 36.7 36.8 36.9 36.8 37.0 37.0 37.1 37.0 37.1 37.2 37.1 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 36.9 37.0 36.9

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 370 209 207 210 218 213 212 208 209 208 210 209 210 209 210 211 210 210 212 212 214 213 214 214 215 214

Female 398 228 225 226 231 227 224 222 222 221 221 220 220 222 220 220 220 220 220 220 222 222 221 221 223 223

All 768 436 432 437 449 440 435 430 430 428 432 429 431 431 430 431 431 430 432 431 436 435 436 435 438 437


Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 229 123 120 124 123 124 122 123 123 122 125 124 125 124 125 126 125 125 127 126 128 128 129 128 129 128

Female 289 144 142 143 142 142 138 139 139 138 139 138 138 139 137 137 138 137 138 137 139 139 138 138 140 140

All 517 267 262 267 265 266 260 262 262 261 264 262 263 264 262 263 263 262 264 263 268 267 267 266 269 268

SMigR: males 86.4 46.4 45.6 47.2 46.8 47.3 46.6 47.2 47.6 47.5 48.6 48.5 49.0 48.9 49.3 49.6 49.5 49.3 49.9 49.7 50.5 50.0 50.4 50.1 50.3 49.9

SMigR: females 134.3 68.1 67.4 68.3 68.2 68.2 66.8 67.6 68.1 67.9 68.6 68.5 68.9 70.1 69.0 69.4 69.8 69.5 69.6 69.0 70.2 70.0 69.5 69.0 70.1 70.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK -680 -429 -421 -423 -421 -410 -409 -399 -412 -413 -408 -427 -438 -447 -441 -454 -453 -447 -438 -431 -429 -427 -424 -421 -422 -420

Overseas +251 +170 +170 +169 +183 +174 +176 +168 +168 +168 +168 +167 +168 +167 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168


Natural change +466 +484 +527 +527 +527 +516 +524 +515 +506 +495 +484 +474 +461 +446 +432 +419 +407 +396 +383 +371 +366 +359 +351 +350 +345 +343

Net migration -429 -259 -251 -254 -237 -236 -233 -231 -244 -245 -240 -260 -270 -280 -273 -286 -286 -279 -270 -263 -261 -259 -255 -253 -253 -252

Net change +37 +225 +276 +274 +290 +280 +291 +284 +262 +250 +244 +214 +190 +167 +159 +133 +121 +116 +113 +108 +105 +100 +96 +97 +92 +92

Crude Birth Rate /000 14.35 14.76 14.76 14.56 14.41 14.28 14.21 14.06 13.88 13.71 13.56 13.43 13.28 13.14 13.03 12.94 12.85 12.78 12.73 12.70 12.69 12.70 12.72 12.75 12.79 12.84

Crude Death Rate /000 9.15 9.37 8.90 8.72 8.59 8.59 8.46 8.43 8.37 8.32 8.31 8.30 8.30 8.33 8.38 8.43 8.49 8.54 8.63 8.74 8.78 8.87 8.97 9.02 9.12 9.19




2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

0-4 6,382 6,424 6,370 6,313 6,274 6,232 6,225 6,200 6,162 6,124 6,083 6,039 5,990 5,940 5,891 5,846 5,805 5,767 5,734 5,707 5,687 5,673 5,667 5,668 5,677 5,692 5,711

5-10 6,572 6,609 6,769 7,026 7,142 7,233 7,236 7,322 7,281 7,226 7,185 7,145 7,134 7,103 7,059 7,014 6,969 6,921 6,867 6,812 6,761 6,715 6,672 6,633 6,600 6,574 6,556

11-15 5,367 5,343 5,272 5,208 5,212 5,310 5,371 5,398 5,628 5,766 5,859 5,902 5,967 5,929 5,893 5,864 5,835 5,826 5,805 5,774 5,742 5,708 5,671 5,628 5,585 5,544 5,505

16-17 2,194 2,175 2,243 2,152 2,099 2,063 2,071 2,118 2,016 2,040 2,155 2,222 2,212 2,276 2,390 2,376 2,355 2,325 2,311 2,323 2,317 2,301 2,290 2,283 2,273 2,257 2,239

18-59Female, 64Male 51,639 51,271 51,052 50,967 50,856 50,681 50,530 50,346 50,294 50,200 50,031 49,879 49,754 49,655 49,528 49,507 49,386 49,286 49,225 49,131 49,037 48,979 48,954 48,961 48,986 48,986 49,051

60/65 -74 10,660 10,935 11,256 11,499 11,812 12,064 12,322 12,487 12,534 12,575 12,651 12,488 12,434 12,448 12,437 12,454 12,637 12,755 12,872 13,007 13,136 13,178 13,203 13,191 13,167 13,134 12,983

75-84 4,814 4,892 4,890 4,946 4,902 4,966 5,051 5,200 5,389 5,576 5,719 6,159 6,498 6,748 7,017 7,233 7,352 7,458 7,480 7,495 7,544 7,442 7,408 7,423 7,436 7,497 7,657

85+ 1,948 1,964 1,984 2,004 2,092 2,127 2,151 2,176 2,228 2,287 2,362 2,454 2,513 2,593 2,646 2,723 2,813 2,934 3,095 3,252 3,384 3,718 3,950 4,123 4,283 4,416 4,489

Total 89,576 89,613 89,838 90,114 90,388 90,677 90,958 91,249 91,532 91,794 92,044 92,288 92,502 92,693 92,859 93,018 93,151 93,272 93,388 93,501 93,609 93,714 93,815 93,911 94,008 94,100 94,191


0-15 / 16-65 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33

65+ / 16-65 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75

Median age males 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.8 37.9 38.1 38.2 38.4 38.6 38.7 38.9 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.6 39.8 40.0 40.1 40.2 40.3 40.4 40.5





Households





Labour Force





Population Estimates and Forecasts Scenario Ad: Pendle Baseline + Catch Up



2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37

Births

Male 659 678 680 673 668 664 663 658 652 645 640 635 630 625 620 617 614 611 609 609 609 610 611 613 616 619

Female 627 646 648 641 636 632 632 627 621 615 610 605 600 595 591 587 584 582 580 580 580 581 582 584 587 590

All Births 1,286 1,324 1,328 1,314 1,305 1,296 1,295 1,285 1,273 1,260 1,250 1,240 1,230 1,219 1,211 1,204 1,198 1,193 1,190 1,188 1,189 1,190 1,194 1,198 1,203 1,209

TFR 2.18 2.26 2.26 2.24 2.23 2.22 2.23 2.23 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21

Births input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Deaths

Male 390 406 394 386 386 387 385 386 386 388 389 390 394 396 400 406 409 412 418 423 426 430 436 437 441 445

Female 430 435 407 401 391 394 386 384 381 377 377 376 375 377 379 379 382 386 388 394 397 402 406 411 417 420

All deaths 820 840 801 787 778 780 771 770 767 765 766 766 769 773 779 785 792 797 807 817 823 831 842 848 858 865

SMR: males 111.6 113.3 107.6 102.9 100.6 98.3 95.5 93.3 90.9 88.7 86.6 84.5 82.9 81.1 79.6 78.5 77.0 75.4 74.6 73.6 72.2 71.1 70.4 68.9 68.1 67.5

SMR: females 116.2 117.0 109.6 106.7 103.2 102.6 99.6 97.7 95.4 92.8 91.1 89.4 87.4 86.1 84.6 82.7 81.3 80.2 78.8 77.9 76.7 75.7 74.7 73.7 73.1 72.1

SMR: persons 113.9 115.1 108.6 104.8 101.9 100.4 97.5 95.4 93.1 90.7 88.8 86.8 85.1 83.4 81.9 80.5 79.0 77.7 76.5 75.7 74.3 73.3 72.4 71.2 70.4 69.6




Deaths input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,458 1,483 1,485 1,487 1,490 1,491 1,492 1,493 1,492 1,490 1,488 1,486 1,484 1,484 1,485 1,487 1,491 1,495 1,500 1,504 1,508 1,513 1,517 1,520 1,523 1,527

Female 1,506 1,530 1,526 1,524 1,522 1,518 1,514 1,510 1,504 1,498 1,493 1,488 1,484 1,482 1,483 1,485 1,490 1,493 1,498 1,502 1,506 1,510 1,515 1,517 1,520 1,523

All 2,964 3,013 3,012 3,011 3,012 3,009 3,005 3,003 2,996 2,988 2,981 2,973 2,968 2,966 2,968 2,973 2,981 2,989 2,998 3,005 3,014 3,023 3,032 3,038 3,043 3,050

SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,789 1,701 1,693 1,692 1,698 1,698 1,699 1,689 1,690 1,689 1,685 1,692 1,695 1,698 1,699 1,711 1,712 1,714 1,715 1,713 1,717 1,721 1,723 1,725 1,728 1,733

Female 1,855 1,741 1,739 1,742 1,735 1,721 1,715 1,713 1,717 1,712 1,703 1,709 1,711 1,715 1,710 1,715 1,723 1,722 1,721 1,723 1,726 1,730 1,733 1,734 1,736 1,738

All 3,644 3,442 3,432 3,434 3,433 3,419 3,414 3,402 3,407 3,401 3,389 3,401 3,406 3,413 3,410 3,426 3,434 3,436 3,436 3,436 3,443 3,450 3,456 3,459 3,465 3,470

SMigR: males 37.9 36.1 36.0 36.1 36.2 36.2 36.3 36.2 36.3 36.3 36.4 36.6 36.7 36.8 36.8 37.0 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.7 36.7 36.8

SMigR: females 38.2 36.5 36.5 36.7 36.7 36.6 36.6 36.7 36.8 36.9 36.8 37.0 37.0 37.1 37.0 37.1 37.2 37.1 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 36.9 37.0 36.9

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 370 209 207 210 218 213 212 208 209 208 210 209 210 209 210 211 210 210 212 212 214 213 214 214 215 214

Female 398 228 225 226 231 227 224 222 222 221 221 220 220 222 220 220 220 220 220 220 222 222 221 221 223 223

All 768 436 432 437 449 440 435 430 430 428 432 429 431 431 430 431 431 430 432 431 436 435 436 435 438 437


Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 229 123 120 124 123 124 122 123 123 122 125 124 125 124 125 126 125 125 127 126 128 128 129 128 129 128

Female 289 144 142 143 142 142 138 139 139 138 139 138 138 139 137 137 138 137 138 137 139 139 138 138 140 140

All 517 267 262 267 265 266 260 262 262 261 264 262 263 264 262 263 263 262 264 263 268 267 267 266 269 268

SMigR: males 86.4 46.4 45.6 47.2 46.8 47.3 46.6 47.2 47.6 47.5 48.6 48.5 49.0 48.9 49.3 49.6 49.5 49.3 49.9 49.7 50.5 50.0 50.4 50.1 50.3 49.9

SMigR: females 134.3 68.1 67.4 68.3 68.2 68.2 66.8 67.6 68.1 67.9 68.6 68.5 68.9 70.1 69.0 69.4 69.8 69.5 69.6 69.0 70.2 70.0 69.5 69.0 70.1 70.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK -680 -429 -421 -423 -421 -410 -409 -399 -412 -413 -408 -427 -438 -447 -441 -454 -453 -447 -438 -431 -429 -427 -424 -421 -422 -420

Overseas +251 +170 +170 +169 +183 +174 +176 +168 +168 +168 +168 +167 +168 +167 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168 +168


Natural change +466 +484 +527 +527 +527 +516 +524 +515 +506 +495 +484 +474 +461 +446 +432 +419 +407 +396 +383 +371 +366 +359 +351 +350 +345 +343

Net migration -429 -259 -251 -254 -237 -236 -233 -231 -244 -245 -240 -260 -270 -280 -273 -286 -286 -279 -270 -263 -261 -259 -255 -253 -253 -252

Net change +37 +225 +276 +274 +290 +280 +291 +284 +262 +250 +244 +214 +190 +167 +159 +133 +121 +116 +113 +108 +105 +100 +96 +97 +92 +92

Crude Birth Rate /000 14.35 14.76 14.76 14.56 14.41 14.28 14.21 14.06 13.88 13.71 13.56 13.43 13.28 13.14 13.03 12.94 12.85 12.78 12.73 12.70 12.69 12.70 12.72 12.75 12.79 12.84

Crude Death Rate /000 9.15 9.37 8.90 8.72 8.59 8.59 8.46 8.43 8.37 8.32 8.31 8.30 8.30 8.33 8.38 8.43 8.49 8.54 8.63 8.74 8.78 8.87 8.97 9.02 9.12 9.19




2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

0-4 6,382 6,424 6,370 6,313 6,274 6,232 6,225 6,200 6,162 6,124 6,083 6,039 5,990 5,940 5,891 5,846 5,805 5,767 5,734 5,707 5,687 5,673 5,667 5,668 5,677 5,692 5,711

5-10 6,572 6,609 6,769 7,026 7,142 7,233 7,236 7,322 7,281 7,226 7,185 7,145 7,134 7,103 7,059 7,014 6,969 6,921 6,867 6,812 6,761 6,715 6,672 6,633 6,600 6,574 6,556

11-15 5,367 5,343 5,272 5,208 5,212 5,310 5,371 5,398 5,628 5,766 5,859 5,902 5,967 5,929 5,893 5,864 5,835 5,826 5,805 5,774 5,742 5,708 5,671 5,628 5,585 5,544 5,505

16-17 2,194 2,175 2,243 2,152 2,099 2,063 2,071 2,118 2,016 2,040 2,155 2,222 2,212 2,276 2,390 2,376 2,355 2,325 2,311 2,323 2,317 2,301 2,290 2,283 2,273 2,257 2,239

18-59Female, 64Male 51,639 51,271 51,052 50,967 50,856 50,681 50,530 50,346 50,294 50,200 50,031 49,879 49,754 49,655 49,528 49,507 49,386 49,286 49,225 49,131 49,037 48,979 48,954 48,961 48,986 48,986 49,051

60/65 -74 10,660 10,935 11,256 11,499 11,812 12,064 12,322 12,487 12,534 12,575 12,651 12,488 12,434 12,448 12,437 12,454 12,637 12,755 12,872 13,007 13,136 13,178 13,203 13,191 13,167 13,134 12,983

75-84 4,814 4,892 4,890 4,946 4,902 4,966 5,051 5,200 5,389 5,576 5,719 6,159 6,498 6,748 7,017 7,233 7,352 7,458 7,480 7,495 7,544 7,442 7,408 7,423 7,436 7,497 7,657

85+ 1,948 1,964 1,984 2,004 2,092 2,127 2,151 2,176 2,228 2,287 2,362 2,454 2,513 2,593 2,646 2,723 2,813 2,934 3,095 3,252 3,384 3,718 3,950 4,123 4,283 4,416 4,489

Total 89,576 89,613 89,838 90,114 90,388 90,677 90,958 91,249 91,532 91,794 92,044 92,288 92,502 92,693 92,859 93,018 93,151 93,272 93,388 93,501 93,609 93,714 93,815 93,911 94,008 94,100 94,191


0-15 / 16-65 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33

65+ / 16-65 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75

Median age males 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.8 37.9 38.1 38.2 38.4 38.6 38.7 38.9 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.6 39.8 40.0 40.1 40.2 40.3 40.4 40.5





Households





Labour Force





Population Estimates and Forecasts Scenario B: Pendle Natural Change



2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37

Births

Male 662 678 676 664 656 647 639 629 620 611 605 601 596 593 593 596 599 605 612 619 628 636 644 652 660 667

Female 630 646 644 633 624 616 609 599 591 582 576 572 568 565 565 568 571 576 583 590 598 606 614 621 628 635

All Births 1,292 1,324 1,320 1,297 1,280 1,263 1,248 1,229 1,211 1,193 1,181 1,173 1,164 1,158 1,158 1,164 1,170 1,181 1,194 1,209 1,226 1,241 1,258 1,273 1,288 1,301

TFR 2.19 2.26 2.26 2.24 2.22 2.21 2.21 2.20 2.19 2.18 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.18 2.18 2.18 2.19 2.19 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.21 2.21 2.21

Births input

Deaths

Male 398 406 394 387 388 390 390 392 393 396 399 401 407 410 416 423 429 433 441 448 453 459 468 471 477 484

Female 422 435 408 403 395 400 396 397 396 395 396 398 398 402 406 408 412 418 423 430 436 443 450 457 467 472

All deaths 820 840 802 790 783 790 785 788 789 791 795 799 805 813 822 831 841 851 864 879 888 902 918 928 943 956

SMR: males 113.9 113.3 107.6 102.9 100.6 98.3 95.5 93.3 90.9 88.7 86.6 84.5 82.9 81.1 79.6 78.5 77.0 75.4 74.6 73.6 72.2 71.1 70.4 68.9 68.1 67.5

SMR: females 113.9 117.0 109.6 106.7 103.2 102.6 99.6 97.7 95.4 92.8 91.1 89.4 87.4 86.1 84.6 82.7 81.3 80.2 78.8 77.9 76.7 75.7 74.7 73.7 73.1 72.1

SMR: persons 113.9 115.1 108.6 104.8 101.9 100.5 97.5 95.4 93.1 90.7 88.8 86.9 85.1 83.5 82.0 80.5 79.1 77.7 76.6 75.7 74.3 73.3 72.5 71.2 70.5 69.7




Deaths input


Male 1,470 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Female 1,494 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

All 2,964 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,796 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Female 1,848 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

All 3,644 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMigR: males 38.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMigR: females 38.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 439 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Female 449 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

All 887 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 298 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Female 344 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

All 642 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMigR: males 112.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMigR: females 160.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK -680 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Overseas +245 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Natural change +472 +483 +519 +507 +497 +473 +463 +441 +422 +403 +386 +374 +359 +345 +336 +333 +329 +330 +331 +330 +337 +340 +340 +345 +345 +346

Net migration -435 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net change +37 +483 +519 +507 +497 +473 +463 +441 +422 +403 +386 +374 +359 +345 +336 +333 +329 +330 +331 +330 +337 +340 +340 +345 +345 +346

Crude Birth Rate /000 14.42 14.73 14.61 14.27 14.01 13.75 13.52 13.25 12.99 12.75 12.57 12.43 12.28 12.17 12.13 12.15 12.18 12.25 12.34 12.45 12.58 12.70 12.82 12.93 13.04 13.13

Crude Death Rate /000 9.15 9.35 8.87 8.70 8.57 8.60 8.51 8.50 8.46 8.45 8.46 8.47 8.49 8.54 8.61 8.68 8.75 8.82 8.93 9.05 9.12 9.22 9.35 9.43 9.55 9.64

Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -4.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

0-4 6,382 6,424 6,464 6,477 6,481 6,455 6,440 6,367 6,277 6,193 6,107 6,027 5,954 5,889 5,837 5,803 5,786 5,784 5,802 5,838 5,889 5,951 6,022 6,100 6,179 6,258 6,334

5-10 6,572 6,609 6,805 7,118 7,290 7,449 7,531 7,727 7,765 7,755 7,743 7,700 7,671 7,579 7,472 7,371 7,274 7,186 7,103 7,034 6,982 6,953 6,943 6,952 6,983 7,034 7,102

11-15 5,367 5,343 5,292 5,247 5,278 5,410 5,491 5,532 5,818 6,006 6,151 6,260 6,413 6,453 6,466 6,471 6,445 6,430 6,357 6,268 6,184 6,099 6,019 5,946 5,882 5,829 5,795

16-17 2,194 2,175 2,250 2,154 2,106 2,082 2,109 2,179 2,059 2,093 2,244 2,322 2,301 2,386 2,567 2,578 2,576 2,562 2,579 2,621 2,595 2,556 2,522 2,491 2,458 2,422 2,387

18-59Female, 64Male 51,639 51,271 51,072 51,002 50,903 50,719 50,554 50,364 50,323 50,258 50,111 49,996 49,944 49,931 49,891 49,999 50,016 50,061 50,176 50,222 50,291 50,401 50,515 50,653 50,777 50,838 50,951

60/65 -74 10,660 10,935 11,299 11,580 11,942 12,238 12,541 12,737 12,814 12,870 12,956 12,791 12,728 12,740 12,698 12,677 12,857 12,968 13,058 13,189 13,323 13,340 13,367 13,339 13,330 13,334 13,200

75-84 4,814 4,892 4,926 5,026 5,012 5,105 5,215 5,395 5,616 5,844 6,015 6,507 6,895 7,186 7,513 7,784 7,948 8,093 8,146 8,183 8,258 8,162 8,128 8,154 8,155 8,195 8,367

85+ 1,948 1,964 1,988 2,010 2,108 2,160 2,210 2,253 2,323 2,398 2,491 2,601 2,674 2,774 2,839 2,938 3,050 3,198 3,391 3,588 3,751 4,148 4,433 4,656 4,871 5,069 5,189

Total 89,576 89,613 90,096 90,615 91,121 91,618 92,091 92,554 92,994 93,416 93,819 94,206 94,580 94,938 95,284 95,620 95,953 96,282 96,612 96,943 97,273 97,610 97,950 98,290 98,635 98,980 99,325


0-15 / 16-65 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34

65+ / 16-65 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.43

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.78

Median age males 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.4 37.5 37.7 37.9 38.0 38.3 38.5 38.7 38.9 39.1 39.4 39.5 39.7 39.8 39.9 39.9 39.9 39.7 39.6 39.7 39.6 39.6




Number of persons -123 -3

Households





Labour Force


Change in Labour Force over previous year+0 -108 -104 +40 -36 +44 -26 -70 +67 +24 -3 -79 -36 +39 +47 +63 -27 +84 +118 +108 +92 +60 +90 +103 +80 +41 +38


Change in over previous year +0 -549 -8 +29 -26 +133 +82 +50 +150 +119 -2 -57 -26 +28 +34 +46 -20 +62 +86 +79 +67 +44 +66 +75 +59 +30 +28

Population Estimates and Forecasts Scenario C: Pendle Zero Net Migration



2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37

Births

Male 662 678 678 669 663 657 653 647 641 635 630 627 624 621 620 621 622 624 626 629 633 638 642 647 651 655

Female 630 646 646 637 631 625 622 616 611 605 600 597 594 592 591 591 592 594 596 599 603 607 612 616 620 624

All Births 1,292 1,324 1,324 1,305 1,294 1,282 1,276 1,264 1,252 1,239 1,231 1,225 1,218 1,213 1,211 1,212 1,214 1,217 1,222 1,228 1,237 1,245 1,254 1,262 1,271 1,280

TFR 2.19 2.26 2.26 2.24 2.22 2.21 2.21 2.20 2.19 2.18 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.18 2.18 2.18 2.19 2.19 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.21 2.21 2.21

Births input

Deaths

Male 398 406 394 387 388 390 389 391 393 396 398 401 406 409 414 421 427 430 438 445 449 455 463 465 471 478

Female 422 435 408 404 396 401 396 398 397 395 397 399 400 404 407 409 414 419 424 432 437 444 450 457 466 471

All deaths 820 840 802 790 784 790 786 789 789 791 795 799 805 813 822 831 840 850 862 877 885 898 913 923 937 949

SMR: males 113.9 113.3 107.6 102.9 100.6 98.3 95.5 93.3 90.9 88.7 86.6 84.5 82.9 81.1 79.6 78.5 77.0 75.4 74.6 73.6 72.2 71.1 70.4 68.9 68.1 67.5

SMR: females 113.9 117.0 109.6 106.7 103.2 102.6 99.6 97.7 95.4 92.8 91.1 89.4 87.4 86.1 84.6 82.7 81.3 80.2 78.8 77.9 76.7 75.7 74.7 73.7 73.1 72.1

SMR: persons 113.9 115.1 108.6 104.8 101.9 100.5 97.5 95.4 93.1 90.7 88.8 86.9 85.1 83.5 82.0 80.5 79.1 77.7 76.6 75.7 74.3 73.3 72.5 71.2 70.5 69.7




Deaths input


Male 1,470 1,604 1,604 1,607 1,609 1,607 1,607 1,605 1,607 1,605 1,601 1,603 1,603 1,604 1,604 1,609 1,612 1,614 1,616 1,618 1,622 1,626 1,630 1,632 1,635 1,638

Female 1,494 1,624 1,618 1,616 1,613 1,607 1,603 1,597 1,594 1,590 1,583 1,584 1,584 1,585 1,585 1,591 1,595 1,598 1,601 1,603 1,607 1,611 1,614 1,616 1,619 1,622

All 2,964 3,227 3,222 3,223 3,222 3,214 3,210 3,202 3,201 3,195 3,185 3,187 3,187 3,189 3,189 3,199 3,208 3,212 3,217 3,221 3,229 3,237 3,244 3,248 3,254 3,260

SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,796 1,603 1,600 1,601 1,604 1,603 1,604 1,601 1,600 1,598 1,594 1,594 1,594 1,595 1,595 1,601 1,604 1,606 1,609 1,611 1,615 1,620 1,624 1,626 1,629 1,633

Female 1,848 1,624 1,622 1,622 1,619 1,611 1,606 1,601 1,601 1,597 1,591 1,593 1,593 1,594 1,594 1,599 1,604 1,606 1,608 1,610 1,613 1,617 1,620 1,622 1,625 1,627

All 3,644 3,227 3,222 3,223 3,222 3,214 3,210 3,202 3,201 3,195 3,185 3,187 3,187 3,189 3,189 3,199 3,208 3,212 3,217 3,221 3,229 3,237 3,244 3,248 3,254 3,260

SMigR: males 38.1 34.0 33.9 33.8 33.7 33.6 33.5 33.4 33.3 33.2 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.0 32.9 32.8 32.7 32.6 32.5 32.4 32.3 32.2 32.1 32.0 32.0 31.9

SMigR: females 38.1 34.0 33.9 33.8 33.7 33.6 33.5 33.4 33.3 33.2 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.0 32.9 32.8 32.7 32.6 32.5 32.4 32.3 32.2 32.1 32.0 32.0 31.9

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 439 152 152 152 156 153 154 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152

Female 449 125 126 125 129 126 127 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125

All 887 277 278 277 284 280 281 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277


Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 298 154 154 154 158 156 157 155 155 155 155 155 156 156 156 156 156 156 156 156 156 156 156 156 156 156

Female 344 123 123 123 126 124 124 122 122 122 122 122 122 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121

All 642 277 278 277 284 280 281 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277 277

SMigR: males 112.5 58.2 58.5 58.6 60.0 59.1 59.4 58.6 58.7 58.7 58.7 58.8 58.9 58.9 58.9 58.8 58.7 58.5 58.2 57.9 57.7 57.4 57.1 56.9 56.6 56.4

SMigR: females 160.2 58.2 58.5 58.6 60.0 59.1 59.4 58.6 58.7 58.7 58.7 58.8 58.9 58.9 58.9 58.8 58.7 58.5 58.2 57.9 57.7 57.4 57.1 56.9 56.6 56.4

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK -680 +0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 +0 +0 +0 -0 +0 +0 +0 0 +0 -0 -0 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 +0 +0 -0

Overseas +245 +0 -0 0 -0 +0 0 +0 +0 0 +0 +0 +0 0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0 +0


Natural change +472 +484 +523 +515 +510 +492 +490 +475 +462 +448 +435 +425 +413 +400 +389 +381 +373 +368 +360 +352 +351 +347 +341 +340 +334 +331

Net migration -435 +0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 +0 +0 +0 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0 -0 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 +0 +0 -0

Net change +37 +484 +523 +515 +510 +492 +490 +475 +462 +448 +435 +425 +413 +400 +389 +381 +373 +368 +360 +352 +351 +347 +341 +340 +334 +331

Crude Birth Rate /000 14.42 14.74 14.66 14.36 14.15 13.95 13.81 13.61 13.41 13.21 13.06 12.94 12.81 12.70 12.63 12.59 12.56 12.55 12.55 12.57 12.61 12.65 12.69 12.74 12.78 12.82

Crude Death Rate /000 9.15 9.35 8.88 8.70 8.57 8.60 8.51 8.49 8.46 8.43 8.44 8.44 8.47 8.51 8.57 8.63 8.70 8.76 8.85 8.97 9.03 9.12 9.25 9.31 9.42 9.51

Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -4.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

0-4 6,382 6,424 6,425 6,411 6,401 6,375 6,368 6,330 6,281 6,237 6,191 6,148 6,104 6,065 6,031 6,006 5,989 5,979 5,979 5,986 6,001 6,022 6,050 6,082 6,119 6,158 6,197

5-10 6,572 6,609 6,785 7,063 7,202 7,323 7,372 7,507 7,512 7,492 7,482 7,455 7,446 7,413 7,367 7,324 7,281 7,241 7,199 7,162 7,130 7,108 7,093 7,085 7,085 7,093 7,109

11-15 5,367 5,343 5,285 5,232 5,248 5,357 5,423 5,462 5,710 5,862 5,974 6,052 6,159 6,162 6,160 6,160 6,145 6,141 6,123 6,093 6,065 6,034 6,003 5,971 5,941 5,914 5,892

16-17 2,194 2,175 2,250 2,158 2,112 2,085 2,101 2,150 2,042 2,075 2,200 2,266 2,261 2,333 2,459 2,455 2,455 2,449 2,445 2,461 2,457 2,444 2,435 2,428 2,419 2,406 2,392

18-59Female, 64Male 51,639 51,271 51,145 51,152 51,135 51,043 50,969 50,872 50,897 50,892 50,815 50,754 50,738 50,748 50,745 50,844 50,853 50,881 50,959 50,992 51,017 51,085 51,172 51,291 51,417 51,512 51,656

60/65 -74 10,660 10,935 11,291 11,562 11,908 12,188 12,469 12,646 12,710 12,757 12,836 12,672 12,615 12,637 12,624 12,638 12,824 12,954 13,074 13,224 13,372 13,422 13,468 13,463 13,461 13,451 13,332

75-84 4,814 4,892 4,927 5,028 5,018 5,110 5,220 5,399 5,617 5,840 6,010 6,487 6,857 7,133 7,435 7,685 7,834 7,960 8,005 8,038 8,102 8,004 7,976 8,008 8,032 8,100 8,276

85+ 1,948 1,964 1,989 2,013 2,110 2,163 2,215 2,261 2,332 2,409 2,503 2,613 2,692 2,794 2,865 2,962 3,074 3,223 3,412 3,601 3,763 4,139 4,408 4,618 4,813 4,986 5,096

Total 89,576 89,613 90,097 90,620 91,134 91,644 92,136 92,626 93,101 93,563 94,012 94,447 94,872 95,285 95,685 96,074 96,456 96,829 97,196 97,556 97,908 98,259 98,606 98,946 99,286 99,620 99,951


0-15 / 16-65 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34

65+ / 16-65 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.43

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.77

Median age males 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.2 37.2 37.3 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.8 37.9 38.1 38.2 38.4 38.5 38.6 38.8 38.9 39.0 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.5 39.6 39.7 39.7 39.8





Households





Labour Force


Change in Labour Force over previous year+0 -108 -49 +101 +34 +104 +35 +2 +120 +83 +36 -34 +4 +53 +58 +65 +2 +74 +93 +87 +77 +63 +80 +96 +87 +68 +78


Change in over previous year +0 -549 +32 +72 +25 +177 +127 +103 +189 +163 +26 -25 +3 +39 +43 +48 +1 +54 +68 +63 +56 +46 +58 +70 +64 +49 +57

Population Estimates and Forecasts Scenario D: Pendle Short Term Migration Trend



2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37

Births

Male 662 680 682 673 668 662 659 652 645 638 632 628 623 619 617 616 615 615 615 616 618 620 623 625 628 630

Female 630 647 649 641 636 630 627 621 615 608 602 598 594 590 587 586 585 585 586 587 589 591 593 596 598 600

All Births 1,292 1,327 1,331 1,314 1,303 1,292 1,286 1,273 1,260 1,246 1,235 1,227 1,217 1,209 1,204 1,202 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,203 1,207 1,211 1,216 1,221 1,226 1,230

TFR 2.19 2.26 2.26 2.24 2.22 2.21 2.21 2.20 2.19 2.18 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.18 2.18 2.18 2.19 2.19 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.21 2.21 2.21

Births input

Deaths

Male 398 406 392 383 382 382 380 380 380 381 382 383 386 388 392 398 401 403 410 415 417 421 428 429 432 437

Female 422 435 404 397 386 388 380 379 375 372 371 370 369 371 373 373 376 379 382 388 391 396 400 405 411 414

All deaths 820 840 796 779 768 769 760 759 755 753 753 753 756 760 765 771 777 783 792 802 808 817 828 834 844 851

SMR: males 113.9 113.3 107.6 102.9 100.6 98.3 95.5 93.3 90.9 88.7 86.6 84.5 82.9 81.1 79.6 78.5 77.0 75.4 74.6 73.6 72.2 71.1 70.4 68.9 68.1 67.5

SMR: females 113.9 117.0 109.6 106.7 103.2 102.6 99.6 97.7 95.4 92.8 91.1 89.4 87.4 86.1 84.6 82.7 81.3 80.2 78.8 77.9 76.7 75.7 74.7 73.7 73.1 72.1

SMR: persons 113.9 115.1 108.6 104.8 101.9 100.4 97.5 95.4 93.1 90.7 88.8 86.8 85.1 83.4 82.0 80.5 79.0 77.7 76.5 75.7 74.3 73.3 72.4 71.2 70.4 69.6




Deaths input


Male 1,470 1,454 1,457 1,459 1,461 1,464 1,466 1,469 1,471 1,473 1,475 1,476 1,477 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,479

Female 1,494 1,500 1,497 1,495 1,493 1,490 1,488 1,485 1,483 1,481 1,479 1,478 1,477 1,476 1,476 1,476 1,476 1,476 1,476 1,476 1,476 1,476 1,476 1,476 1,476 1,475

All 2,964 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954 2,954

SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,796 1,696 1,693 1,691 1,697 1,705 1,708 1,704 1,702 1,705 1,707 1,707 1,708 1,708 1,710 1,714 1,710 1,712 1,713 1,711 1,712 1,711 1,711 1,712 1,712 1,713

Female 1,848 1,736 1,739 1,741 1,735 1,727 1,724 1,728 1,730 1,727 1,725 1,725 1,724 1,724 1,722 1,718 1,722 1,720 1,719 1,721 1,720 1,721 1,721 1,720 1,720 1,719

All 3,644 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432 3,432

SMigR: males 38.1 36.0 36.0 35.9 36.0 36.2 36.2 36.2 36.2 36.4 36.5 36.5 36.6 36.6 36.6 36.6 36.4 36.4 36.3 36.2 36.1 36.0 35.9 35.9 35.8 35.8

SMigR: females 38.1 36.4 36.4 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.6 36.8 36.9 37.0 37.0 37.1 37.1 37.1 37.0 36.9 36.8 36.7 36.6 36.6 36.5 36.4 36.4 36.3 36.3 36.2

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 439 192 192 192 194 193 193 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192

Female 449 204 204 204 202 203 203 204 204 204 204 204 204 204 204 204 204 204 204 204 204 204 204 204 204 204

All 887 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396


Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 298 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77

Female 344 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87

All 642 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164

SMigR: males 112.5 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2

SMigR: females 160.2 41.2 41.3 41.4 41.5 41.6 41.9 42.0 42.2 42.4 42.6 42.8 43.0 43.2 43.3 43.4 43.4 43.4 43.3 43.2 43.2 43.1 43.0 42.9 42.9 42.9

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK -680 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478 -478

Overseas +245 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232 +232


Natural change +472 +487 +535 +535 +536 +523 +526 +514 +505 +493 +482 +473 +461 +450 +439 +431 +423 +417 +409 +400 +399 +394 +388 +387 +382 +379

Net migration -435 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246 -246

Net change +37 +241 +289 +289 +290 +277 +280 +268 +259 +247 +236 +227 +215 +204 +193 +185 +177 +171 +163 +154 +153 +148 +142 +141 +136 +133

Crude Birth Rate /000 14.42 14.79 14.79 14.56 14.39 14.22 14.11 13.93 13.74 13.55 13.40 13.27 13.14 13.03 12.94 12.89 12.85 12.82 12.81 12.81 12.83 12.85 12.89 12.92 12.96 12.98

Crude Death Rate /000 9.15 9.37 8.85 8.63 8.47 8.47 8.34 8.30 8.24 8.19 8.17 8.15 8.16 8.18 8.22 8.27 8.32 8.37 8.45 8.55 8.59 8.67 8.78 8.82 8.92 8.98




2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

0-4 6,382 6,424 6,370 6,317 6,281 6,243 6,234 6,199 6,146 6,096 6,042 5,988 5,935 5,886 5,841 5,805 5,777 5,755 5,741 5,734 5,733 5,739 5,750 5,767 5,787 5,810 5,834

5-10 6,572 6,609 6,766 7,016 7,120 7,197 7,193 7,271 7,228 7,172 7,134 7,089 7,071 7,032 6,978 6,924 6,870 6,818 6,764 6,715 6,671 6,637 6,610 6,590 6,578 6,574 6,578

11-15 5,367 5,343 5,257 5,192 5,197 5,292 5,345 5,370 5,594 5,719 5,798 5,835 5,892 5,851 5,816 5,793 5,763 5,750 5,725 5,686 5,646 5,602 5,558 5,515 5,473 5,436 5,406

16-17 2,194 2,175 2,199 2,068 2,002 1,967 1,978 2,018 1,914 1,942 2,053 2,111 2,099 2,160 2,262 2,242 2,223 2,198 2,180 2,190 2,186 2,172 2,158 2,146 2,131 2,113 2,094

18-59Female, 64Male 51,639 51,271 51,143 51,118 51,045 50,885 50,741 50,576 50,528 50,452 50,311 50,182 50,091 50,025 49,947 49,961 49,883 49,820 49,797 49,729 49,651 49,617 49,608 49,634 49,672 49,686 49,749

60/65 -74 10,660 10,935 11,260 11,505 11,828 12,089 12,354 12,522 12,581 12,625 12,703 12,549 12,503 12,531 12,525 12,544 12,725 12,850 12,965 13,104 13,239 13,280 13,309 13,288 13,261 13,221 13,076

75-84 4,814 4,892 4,895 4,963 4,924 4,985 5,063 5,210 5,395 5,588 5,730 6,170 6,506 6,753 7,024 7,246 7,373 7,482 7,516 7,539 7,594 7,504 7,480 7,510 7,533 7,594 7,754

85+ 1,948 1,964 1,964 1,963 2,035 2,063 2,090 2,112 2,159 2,212 2,281 2,364 2,417 2,493 2,540 2,612 2,698 2,815 2,970 3,126 3,255 3,579 3,802 3,970 4,125 4,261 4,338

Total 89,576 89,613 89,854 90,143 90,431 90,721 90,998 91,278 91,546 91,805 92,052 92,287 92,514 92,730 92,933 93,126 93,312 93,489 93,659 93,822 93,976 94,129 94,277 94,419 94,560 94,696 94,830


0-15 / 16-65 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33

65+ / 16-65 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.62 0.62 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74

Median age males 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.7 37.8 38.0 38.1 38.3 38.5 38.7 38.8 39.0 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.5 39.7 39.8 39.9 40.0 40.1 40.2





Households





Labour Force


Change in Labour Force over previous year+0 -108 -30 +78 -2 +54 -23 -55 +59 +30 -26 -91 -50 -11 -9 -9 -67 -7 +11 +8 -4 -17 +2 +18 +12 -3 +8


Change in over previous year +0 -549 +46 +56 -1 +140 +85 +61 +145 +123 -19 -67 -37 -8 -7 -7 -49 -5 +8 +6 -3 -12 +1 +13 +9 -2 +6

Population Estimates and Forecasts Scenario E: Pendle Long Term Migration Trend



2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37

Births

Male 662 680 684 676 672 667 665 660 654 648 644 640 636 633 631 630 630 630 631 633 636 638 642 645 648 651

Female 630 648 651 644 640 636 634 629 623 617 613 610 606 603 601 600 600 600 601 603 605 608 611 614 617 620

All Births 1,292 1,328 1,335 1,320 1,312 1,303 1,299 1,289 1,278 1,265 1,256 1,250 1,242 1,235 1,232 1,230 1,230 1,230 1,232 1,235 1,241 1,246 1,253 1,259 1,266 1,272

TFR 2.19 2.26 2.26 2.24 2.22 2.21 2.21 2.20 2.19 2.18 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.18 2.18 2.18 2.19 2.19 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.21 2.21 2.21

Births input

Deaths

Male 398 406 392 383 382 382 381 381 381 382 384 385 388 390 395 400 404 407 413 418 421 425 432 433 437 443

Female 422 435 405 397 386 388 381 380 376 373 372 372 371 373 375 375 378 382 385 390 394 399 404 409 415 419

All deaths 820 840 797 780 769 771 762 761 757 755 756 757 759 763 769 776 782 788 798 809 815 824 836 842 853 861

SMR: males 113.9 113.3 107.6 102.9 100.6 98.3 95.5 93.3 90.9 88.7 86.6 84.5 82.9 81.1 79.6 78.5 77.0 75.4 74.6 73.6 72.2 71.1 70.4 68.9 68.1 67.5

SMR: females 113.9 117.0 109.6 106.7 103.2 102.6 99.6 97.7 95.4 92.8 91.1 89.4 87.4 86.1 84.6 82.7 81.3 80.2 78.8 77.9 76.7 75.7 74.7 73.7 73.1 72.1

SMR: persons 113.9 115.1 108.6 104.8 101.9 100.4 97.5 95.4 93.1 90.7 88.8 86.8 85.1 83.4 81.9 80.5 79.0 77.7 76.5 75.7 74.3 73.3 72.4 71.2 70.4 69.6




Deaths input


Male 1,470 1,548 1,551 1,553 1,556 1,558 1,561 1,564 1,566 1,568 1,570 1,571 1,573 1,573 1,574 1,574 1,573 1,574 1,574 1,574 1,574 1,574 1,574 1,574 1,574 1,574

Female 1,494 1,597 1,594 1,592 1,589 1,587 1,584 1,581 1,579 1,577 1,575 1,574 1,572 1,572 1,571 1,571 1,572 1,571 1,571 1,571 1,571 1,571 1,571 1,571 1,571 1,571

All 2,964 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145 3,145

SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,796 1,734 1,732 1,729 1,736 1,743 1,747 1,743 1,741 1,743 1,746 1,746 1,747 1,747 1,749 1,753 1,749 1,751 1,752 1,750 1,751 1,750 1,750 1,750 1,751 1,752

Female 1,848 1,776 1,778 1,781 1,774 1,767 1,763 1,767 1,769 1,767 1,764 1,764 1,763 1,763 1,761 1,757 1,761 1,759 1,758 1,760 1,759 1,760 1,760 1,760 1,759 1,758

All 3,644 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510 3,510

SMigR: males 38.1 36.8 36.7 36.6 36.7 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.8 36.7 36.6 36.5 36.3 36.2 36.0 35.9 35.8 35.7 35.6

SMigR: females 38.1 37.2 37.2 37.2 37.2 37.1 37.2 37.3 37.4 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.4 37.4 37.3 37.1 37.0 36.9 36.7 36.7 36.5 36.4 36.3 36.2 36.1 36.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 439 178 178 178 180 178 179 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178

Female 449 188 188 188 186 188 187 188 188 188 188 188 188 188 188 188 188 188 188 188 188 188 188 188 188 188

All 887 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 366 366


Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 298 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79

Female 344 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

All 642 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169

SMigR: males 112.5 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3

SMigR: females 160.2 42.4 42.5 42.5 42.6 42.6 42.8 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.3 43.5 43.6 43.7 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.7 43.5 43.4 43.3 43.1 43.0 42.9 42.8

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK -680 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365 -365

Overseas +245 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197 +197


Natural change +472 +488 +538 +540 +543 +532 +537 +528 +520 +510 +500 +493 +483 +472 +462 +455 +447 +442 +434 +426 +426 +422 +417 +417 +413 +411

Net migration -435 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168 -168

Net change +37 +320 +370 +372 +375 +364 +369 +360 +352 +342 +332 +325 +315 +304 +294 +287 +279 +274 +266 +258 +258 +254 +249 +249 +245 +243

Crude Birth Rate /000 14.42 14.80 14.81 14.59 14.44 14.28 14.18 14.01 13.84 13.65 13.51 13.39 13.26 13.15 13.07 13.01 12.97 12.94 12.92 12.92 12.94 12.96 12.99 13.03 13.06 13.09

Crude Death Rate /000 9.15 9.36 8.84 8.62 8.46 8.45 8.32 8.27 8.20 8.15 8.13 8.11 8.11 8.13 8.16 8.20 8.25 8.29 8.36 8.46 8.50 8.57 8.67 8.71 8.80 8.86




2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

0-4 6,382 6,424 6,378 6,334 6,308 6,281 6,283 6,260 6,220 6,182 6,139 6,095 6,052 6,012 5,976 5,948 5,927 5,911 5,903 5,901 5,906 5,916 5,933 5,955 5,982 6,012 6,043

5-10 6,572 6,609 6,771 7,027 7,136 7,221 7,225 7,312 7,279 7,235 7,210 7,178 7,174 7,149 7,109 7,069 7,027 6,988 6,946 6,906 6,872 6,846 6,827 6,814 6,809 6,811 6,822

11-15 5,367 5,343 5,260 5,199 5,209 5,308 5,365 5,395 5,625 5,754 5,839 5,883 5,947 5,915 5,890 5,877 5,858 5,856 5,843 5,816 5,787 5,755 5,721 5,686 5,654 5,625 5,602

16-17 2,194 2,175 2,199 2,068 2,002 1,969 1,981 2,022 1,920 1,950 2,063 2,123 2,113 2,177 2,281 2,263 2,248 2,227 2,213 2,226 2,227 2,217 2,209 2,201 2,191 2,178 2,163

18-59Female, 64Male 51,639 51,271 51,200 51,231 51,213 51,107 51,018 50,907 50,911 50,887 50,798 50,720 50,680 50,664 50,637 50,702 50,675 50,663 50,692 50,678 50,655 50,677 50,728 50,815 50,917 50,998 51,130

60/65 -74 10,660 10,935 11,265 11,514 11,842 12,109 12,380 12,555 12,622 12,673 12,760 12,615 12,579 12,617 12,623 12,654 12,846 12,983 13,110 13,261 13,409 13,461 13,500 13,488 13,468 13,435 13,295

75-84 4,814 4,892 4,896 4,965 4,927 4,989 5,068 5,216 5,403 5,598 5,742 6,184 6,523 6,773 7,047 7,272 7,403 7,516 7,555 7,582 7,642 7,557 7,538 7,575 7,605 7,674 7,842

85+ 1,948 1,964 1,964 1,964 2,037 2,066 2,094 2,117 2,165 2,218 2,288 2,372 2,427 2,504 2,552 2,626 2,712 2,831 2,987 3,145 3,277 3,603 3,829 4,000 4,157 4,296 4,375

Total 89,576 89,613 89,933 90,303 90,675 91,050 91,415 91,784 92,144 92,497 92,839 93,171 93,496 93,811 94,115 94,409 94,696 94,975 95,249 95,516 95,774 96,032 96,286 96,535 96,783 97,028 97,271


0-15 / 16-65 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33

65+ / 16-65 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74

Median age males 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.7 37.9 38.0 38.2 38.3 38.5 38.7 38.8 38.9 39.1 39.2 39.3 39.5 39.6 39.7 39.8 39.9 39.9





Households





Labour Force


Change in Labour Force over previous year+0 -108 +16 +123 +43 +99 +21 -11 +103 +74 +18 -48 -7 +32 +34 +34 -23 +37 +56 +54 +44 +32 +52 +69 +65 +51 +64


Change in over previous year +0 -549 +79 +89 +31 +173 +117 +94 +177 +156 +13 -35 -5 +23 +25 +25 -17 +27 +41 +39 +32 +24 +38 +51 +48 +37 +47

Population Estimates and Forecasts Scenario G: Pendle Past Jobs Trend



2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37

Births

Male 663 679 679 670 665 656 651 643 631 620 616 615 612 610 609 609 611 613 615 618 621 625 628 631 633 636

Female 631 647 647 638 634 625 620 612 601 591 587 586 583 581 580 580 582 584 586 588 591 595 598 601 603 606

All Births 1,294 1,326 1,326 1,307 1,299 1,281 1,271 1,255 1,233 1,211 1,203 1,201 1,195 1,190 1,188 1,189 1,193 1,197 1,200 1,206 1,212 1,219 1,226 1,231 1,237 1,242

TFR 2.19 2.26 2.26 2.24 2.22 2.21 2.21 2.20 2.19 2.18 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.18 2.18 2.18 2.19 2.19 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.21 2.21 2.21

Births input

Deaths

Male 398 406 391 382 381 381 379 379 378 379 381 383 386 389 393 399 403 405 412 417 420 424 430 431 435 440

Female 422 435 404 396 385 386 378 376 372 369 368 369 368 370 372 373 376 380 383 389 392 397 402 407 413 416

All deaths 820 840 795 778 766 767 757 755 751 748 749 751 754 759 765 772 779 786 795 806 812 821 832 838 848 856

SMR: males 113.9 113.3 107.6 102.9 100.6 98.3 95.5 93.3 90.9 88.7 86.6 84.5 82.9 81.1 79.6 78.5 77.0 75.4 74.6 73.6 72.2 71.1 70.4 68.9 68.1 67.5

SMR: females 113.9 117.0 109.6 106.7 103.2 102.6 99.6 97.7 95.4 92.8 91.1 89.4 87.4 86.1 84.6 82.7 81.3 80.2 78.8 77.9 76.7 75.7 74.7 73.7 73.1 72.1

SMR: persons 113.9 115.1 108.6 104.8 101.9 100.4 97.5 95.4 93.1 90.7 88.8 86.8 85.1 83.4 81.9 80.5 79.0 77.7 76.5 75.7 74.3 73.3 72.4 71.2 70.4 69.6




Deaths input


Male 1,458 1,481 1,495 1,527 1,432 1,465 1,475 1,425 1,442 1,530 1,555 1,537 1,520 1,521 1,521 1,552 1,526 1,521 1,526 1,514 1,524 1,519 1,516 1,522 1,533 1,531

Female 1,506 1,528 1,536 1,565 1,463 1,491 1,497 1,441 1,454 1,539 1,559 1,539 1,519 1,520 1,519 1,550 1,525 1,519 1,524 1,512 1,522 1,516 1,514 1,520 1,530 1,527

All 2,964 3,008 3,031 3,092 2,895 2,956 2,973 2,866 2,896 3,070 3,114 3,076 3,039 3,041 3,039 3,103 3,051 3,040 3,050 3,026 3,046 3,036 3,030 3,042 3,063 3,058

SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,789 1,703 1,684 1,652 1,756 1,724 1,715 1,756 1,739 1,649 1,619 1,641 1,660 1,661 1,664 1,646 1,677 1,689 1,689 1,703 1,701 1,714 1,724 1,723 1,719 1,728

Female 1,855 1,743 1,729 1,701 1,794 1,747 1,732 1,781 1,767 1,671 1,636 1,658 1,675 1,677 1,675 1,650 1,688 1,696 1,695 1,713 1,710 1,723 1,733 1,732 1,727 1,734

All 3,644 3,446 3,412 3,354 3,550 3,471 3,447 3,538 3,506 3,320 3,256 3,299 3,335 3,338 3,338 3,296 3,365 3,384 3,384 3,416 3,411 3,438 3,457 3,454 3,445 3,462

SMigR: males 37.9 36.2 35.9 35.2 37.3 36.8 36.7 37.7 37.6 35.8 35.2 35.6 35.9 35.8 35.8 35.3 35.8 35.9 35.7 35.9 35.8 35.9 36.0 36.0 35.8 36.0

SMigR: females 38.2 36.5 36.3 35.8 37.8 37.2 37.1 38.3 38.2 36.4 35.7 36.0 36.3 36.2 36.1 35.4 36.0 36.0 35.9 36.2 36.0 36.2 36.3 36.3 36.1 36.2

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 371 175 176 175 184 178 179 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175

Female 389 186 186 186 191 187 188 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185

All 760 361 361 361 375 365 367 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360


Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 225 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

Female 292 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103

All 517 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194

SMigR: males 85.1 34.3 34.5 34.6 34.5 34.8 34.9 35.1 35.3 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.5 35.6 35.5 35.5 35.3 35.2 35.1 34.9 34.8 34.7 34.6 34.6 34.5 34.4

SMigR: females 135.7 48.6 49.0 49.2 49.2 49.7 50.1 50.5 51.0 51.5 51.6 51.6 51.6 51.7 51.7 51.6 51.4 51.3 51.1 51.0 50.9 50.7 50.6 50.5 50.5 50.5

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK -680 -438 -381 -262 -655 -515 -474 -671 -610 -251 -142 -223 -296 -297 -299 -193 -314 -344 -334 -391 -365 -402 -427 -412 -383 -404

Overseas +243 +167 +168 +167 +181 +171 +173 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166


Natural change +474 +486 +531 +530 +533 +514 +514 +500 +482 +463 +454 +450 +441 +431 +423 +417 +414 +411 +405 +400 +401 +398 +394 +393 +389 +386

Net migration -437 -271 -214 -95 -474 -344 -301 -505 -444 -84 +24 -57 -130 -131 -133 -27 -147 -178 -168 -224 -198 -236 -260 -246 -216 -237

Net change +37 +215 +318 +434 +59 +170 +213 -5 +38 +379 +478 +393 +311 +300 +290 +390 +267 +233 +238 +176 +202 +162 +133 +147 +172 +149

Crude Birth Rate /000 14.44 14.78 14.74 14.47 14.34 14.12 13.98 13.79 13.54 13.27 13.12 13.04 12.93 12.83 12.77 12.73 12.73 12.73 12.74 12.77 12.81 12.86 12.91 12.95 12.99 13.02

Crude Death Rate /000 9.15 9.37 8.84 8.61 8.46 8.45 8.32 8.30 8.25 8.19 8.17 8.15 8.16 8.18 8.22 8.26 8.31 8.36 8.44 8.54 8.58 8.66 8.77 8.81 8.91 8.97

Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -4.88 -3.02 -2.37 -1.06 -5.23 -3.79 -3.31 -5.55 -4.88 -0.92 0.26 -0.62 -1.40 -1.41 -1.43 -0.29 -1.57 -1.89 -1.78 -2.38 -2.10 -2.49 -2.74 -2.59 -2.27 -2.49



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

0-4 6,382 6,424 6,371 6,316 6,285 6,216 6,181 6,130 6,045 5,966 5,911 5,869 5,825 5,782 5,746 5,722 5,717 5,709 5,707 5,714 5,724 5,743 5,765 5,789 5,817 5,848 5,877

5-10 6,572 6,609 6,769 7,027 7,153 7,231 7,232 7,311 7,248 7,170 7,130 7,087 7,063 7,018 6,960 6,902 6,854 6,803 6,752 6,707 6,668 6,643 6,626 6,613 6,611 6,619 6,634

11-15 5,367 5,343 5,280 5,218 5,228 5,311 5,364 5,389 5,604 5,729 5,829 5,889 5,968 5,936 5,902 5,874 5,842 5,819 5,786 5,741 5,693 5,643 5,594 5,546 5,503 5,469 5,443

16-17 2,194 2,175 2,254 2,177 2,136 2,101 2,108 2,149 2,041 2,065 2,180 2,247 2,244 2,313 2,429 2,416 2,405 2,385 2,364 2,367 2,357 2,338 2,320 2,303 2,286 2,264 2,241

18-59Female, 64Male 51,639 51,271 51,035 50,968 50,965 50,633 50,412 50,195 49,955 49,727 49,671 49,706 49,721 49,715 49,688 49,763 49,819 49,815 49,831 49,808 49,734 49,719 49,707 49,710 49,733 49,754 49,807

60/65 -74 10,660 10,935 11,260 11,510 11,846 12,095 12,353 12,519 12,565 12,600 12,693 12,557 12,524 12,560 12,570 12,606 12,811 12,948 13,078 13,231 13,376 13,425 13,458 13,440 13,416 13,376 13,231

75-84 4,814 4,892 4,904 4,979 4,945 5,008 5,089 5,240 5,425 5,614 5,759 6,207 6,550 6,805 7,086 7,314 7,448 7,564 7,601 7,630 7,692 7,603 7,582 7,614 7,640 7,711 7,882

85+ 1,948 1,964 1,955 1,950 2,021 2,044 2,070 2,090 2,134 2,185 2,260 2,350 2,409 2,488 2,535 2,610 2,700 2,820 2,978 3,137 3,266 3,596 3,823 3,993 4,150 4,286 4,360

Total 89,576 89,613 89,828 90,145 90,580 90,639 90,809 91,022 91,017 91,055 91,434 91,912 92,305 92,616 92,917 93,207 93,597 93,863 94,097 94,335 94,510 94,713 94,875 95,008 95,155 95,327 95,476


0-15 / 16-65 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33

65+ / 16-65 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.42

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75

Median age males 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.9 38.0 38.2 38.3 38.4 38.6 38.8 38.9 39.0 39.2 39.3 39.5 39.6 39.8 39.9 40.0 40.1 40.1 40.2




Number of persons -124 -5 -9 +40 +161 -234 -105 -65 -273 -199 +163 +266 +204 +142 +150 +142 +260 +140 +103 +104 +40 +64 +25 -3 +9 +39 +16

Labour Force


Change in Labour Force over previous year+0 -108 -51 +42 +42 -98 -98 -97 -96 -96 +42 +42 +42 +42 +42 +42 +42 +42 +42 +42 -0 -0 -0 0 -0 0 0


Change in over previous year +0 -549 +31 +31 +31 +30 +31 +31 +30 +31 +31 +31 +30 +31 +31 +31 +31 +31 +31 +30 -0 -0 -0 0 -0 0 0

Households





Population Estimates and Forecasts Scenario H:Pendle Experian Jobs



2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37

Births

Male 663 679 663 656 655 648 638 633 610 599 601 606 596 587 589 589 588 603 594 594 597 599 603 606 608 611

Female 631 647 631 625 623 617 608 603 581 570 573 577 568 559 561 561 560 574 566 565 568 571 574 577 579 582

All Births 1,294 1,326 1,294 1,281 1,278 1,265 1,246 1,236 1,191 1,169 1,174 1,184 1,164 1,145 1,150 1,150 1,147 1,177 1,160 1,159 1,165 1,170 1,177 1,183 1,188 1,192

TFR 2.19 2.26 2.26 2.24 2.22 2.21 2.21 2.20 2.19 2.18 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.18 2.18 2.18 2.19 2.19 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.21 2.21 2.21

Births input

Deaths

Male 398 406 389 380 380 380 377 378 375 376 379 381 384 384 389 395 398 403 407 412 414 418 424 425 429 433

Female 422 435 401 394 383 385 376 375 369 365 366 367 365 367 369 370 372 378 379 384 387 392 397 401 408 411

All deaths 820 840 790 774 763 764 753 753 744 741 745 748 749 751 758 764 770 781 786 796 801 810 821 827 836 844

SMR: males 113.9 113.3 107.6 102.9 100.6 98.3 95.5 93.3 90.9 88.7 86.6 84.5 82.9 81.1 79.6 78.5 77.0 75.4 74.6 73.6 72.2 71.1 70.4 68.9 68.1 67.5

SMR: females 113.9 117.0 109.6 106.7 103.2 102.6 99.6 97.7 95.4 92.8 91.1 89.4 87.4 86.1 84.6 82.7 81.3 80.2 78.8 77.9 76.7 75.7 74.7 73.7 73.1 72.1

SMR: persons 113.9 115.1 108.6 104.8 101.9 100.4 97.5 95.4 93.1 90.7 88.8 86.8 85.1 83.4 81.9 80.5 79.0 77.7 76.5 75.7 74.3 73.3 72.4 71.2 70.4 69.6




Deaths input


Male 1,458 1,214 1,547 1,571 1,476 1,382 1,522 1,220 1,431 1,640 1,660 1,388 1,378 1,573 1,504 1,472 1,768 1,308 1,455 1,504 1,508 1,513 1,517 1,520 1,523 1,527

Female 1,506 1,253 1,590 1,610 1,508 1,408 1,545 1,234 1,443 1,649 1,665 1,390 1,378 1,572 1,502 1,470 1,766 1,306 1,452 1,502 1,506 1,510 1,515 1,517 1,520 1,523

All 2,964 2,468 3,137 3,180 2,984 2,790 3,066 2,454 2,874 3,289 3,325 2,779 2,756 3,145 3,006 2,943 3,533 2,614 2,907 3,005 3,014 3,023 3,032 3,038 3,043 3,050

SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,789 1,970 1,632 1,609 1,712 1,806 1,668 1,961 1,750 1,540 1,514 1,789 1,800 1,609 1,680 1,726 1,436 1,901 1,761 1,713 1,717 1,721 1,723 1,725 1,728 1,733

Female 1,855 2,017 1,675 1,656 1,749 1,831 1,685 1,989 1,779 1,561 1,530 1,807 1,817 1,624 1,691 1,730 1,446 1,909 1,767 1,723 1,726 1,730 1,733 1,734 1,736 1,738

All 3,644 3,987 3,307 3,265 3,461 3,637 3,353 3,951 3,529 3,101 3,045 3,596 3,617 3,233 3,372 3,456 2,882 3,811 3,527 3,436 3,443 3,450 3,456 3,459 3,465 3,470

SMigR: males 37.9 41.8 35.4 34.8 36.8 38.9 36.2 42.6 38.7 34.3 33.5 39.2 39.7 35.7 37.1 38.0 31.6 41.0 38.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.4

SMigR: females 38.2 42.3 35.9 35.4 37.3 39.3 36.6 43.2 39.5 34.9 34.0 39.6 40.2 36.2 37.4 38.2 31.8 41.2 38.5 37.7 37.6 37.7 37.7 37.7 37.7 37.7

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 371 175 176 175 184 178 179 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175

Female 389 186 186 186 191 187 188 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185

All 760 361 361 361 375 365 367 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360


Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 225 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

Female 292 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103

All 517 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194

SMigR: males 85.1 34.3 35.1 35.1 34.9 35.1 35.5 35.5 36.3 36.5 36.3 35.9 36.3 36.6 36.4 36.4 36.4 35.7 36.1 36.1 36.0 36.0 35.9 35.8 35.8 35.7

SMigR: females 135.7 48.6 50.1 50.2 50.0 50.2 51.0 51.1 52.6 53.1 52.7 52.2 52.8 53.5 53.2 53.2 53.3 52.1 52.8 52.9 52.9 52.8 52.6 52.6 52.5 52.5

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK -680 -1,520 -171 -85 -477 -847 -287 -1,497 -655 +187 +280 -817 -861 -88 -365 -513 +651 -1,197 -620 -431 -429 -427 -424 -421 -422 -420

Overseas +243 +167 +168 +167 +181 +171 +173 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166


Natural change +474 +486 +504 +508 +515 +501 +493 +483 +447 +428 +429 +435 +416 +394 +391 +386 +377 +396 +374 +363 +364 +360 +356 +356 +351 +349

Net migration -437 -1,353 -3 +82 -297 -676 -113 -1,331 -488 +354 +446 -651 -695 +78 -199 -347 +818 -1,030 -454 -265 -263 -261 -257 -255 -255 -254

Net change +37 -867 +501 +590 +218 -175 +380 -847 -41 +782 +875 -215 -279 +473 +192 +39 +1,195 -635 -80 +99 +101 +99 +99 +101 +96 +95

Crude Birth Rate /000 14.44 14.87 14.54 14.31 14.21 14.06 13.83 13.76 13.33 13.03 12.96 13.02 12.84 12.62 12.62 12.61 12.49 12.78 12.64 12.63 12.68 12.72 12.78 12.83 12.87 12.91

Crude Death Rate /000 9.15 9.42 8.88 8.64 8.49 8.50 8.36 8.38 8.33 8.26 8.22 8.23 8.26 8.27 8.32 8.38 8.39 8.48 8.57 8.67 8.72 8.81 8.92 8.97 9.06 9.14

Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -4.88 -15.17 -0.03 0.92 -3.30 -7.51 -1.26 -14.81 -5.46 3.94 4.92 -7.16 -7.66 0.86 -2.19 -3.80 8.90 -11.19 -4.95 -2.88 -2.86 -2.83 -2.79 -2.77 -2.77 -2.75



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

0-4 6,382 6,424 6,274 6,223 6,197 6,137 6,069 6,026 5,872 5,781 5,758 5,752 5,664 5,571 5,552 5,525 5,494 5,562 5,501 5,488 5,494 5,507 5,526 5,545 5,571 5,599 5,627

5-10 6,572 6,609 6,699 6,964 7,097 7,180 7,152 7,236 7,104 7,008 6,987 6,964 6,889 6,796 6,746 6,678 6,602 6,613 6,506 6,435 6,395 6,367 6,344 6,332 6,327 6,332 6,344

11-15 5,367 5,343 5,231 5,178 5,195 5,285 5,323 5,354 5,525 5,643 5,758 5,831 5,874 5,808 5,770 5,727 5,672 5,687 5,599 5,539 5,485 5,422 5,368 5,320 5,272 5,235 5,210

16-17 2,194 2,175 2,233 2,163 2,124 2,091 2,091 2,137 2,016 2,037 2,158 2,232 2,216 2,272 2,391 2,371 2,348 2,348 2,308 2,300 2,278 2,258 2,239 2,217 2,202 2,176 2,145

18-59Female, 64Male 51,639 51,271 50,275 50,351 50,471 50,262 49,810 49,720 48,908 48,647 48,890 49,211 48,821 48,427 48,535 48,559 48,394 49,034 48,465 48,235 48,123 48,046 47,998 47,986 47,981 47,954 47,978

60/65 -74 10,660 10,935 11,209 11,466 11,807 12,063 12,302 12,476 12,479 12,508 12,620 12,504 12,437 12,442 12,460 12,488 12,669 12,852 12,932 13,063 13,199 13,240 13,264 13,239 13,208 13,161 13,009

75-84 4,814 4,892 4,885 4,964 4,933 4,999 5,073 5,227 5,395 5,581 5,735 6,188 6,517 6,756 7,039 7,262 7,386 7,524 7,538 7,557 7,616 7,525 7,499 7,529 7,553 7,619 7,785

85+ 1,948 1,964 1,939 1,939 2,013 2,039 2,060 2,083 2,114 2,166 2,248 2,346 2,393 2,461 2,513 2,587 2,671 2,812 2,948 3,099 3,227 3,552 3,778 3,947 4,102 4,235 4,308

Total 89,576 89,613 88,746 89,247 89,837 90,055 89,880 90,260 89,412 89,371 90,153 91,028 90,812 90,533 91,006 91,198 91,237 92,432 91,797 91,717 91,816 91,917 92,016 92,115 92,216 92,312 92,407


0-15 / 16-65 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33

65+ / 16-65 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.43

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.76

Median age males 37.3 37.3 37.5 37.5 37.4 37.5 37.7 37.8 38.1 38.3 38.4 38.4 38.6 38.9 39.0 39.2 39.3 39.3 39.6 39.8 39.9 40.1 40.2 40.3 40.4 40.4 40.5




Number of persons -124 -5 -1,091 +250 +338 -56 -437 +122 -1,098 -243 +601 +688 -390 -423 +359 +76 -59 +1,105 -750 -182

Labour Force


Change in Labour Force over previous year+0 -108 -650 +139 +139 -1 -277 +0 -549 -135 +274 +274 -274 -274 +137 -0 -137 +548 -411 -137 -41 -51 -29 -14 -24 -39 -27


Change in over previous year +0 -549 -400 +100 +100 +100 -100 +100 -300 +0 +200 +200 -200 -200 +100 -0 -100 +400 -300 -100 -30 -37 -21 -10 -18 -28 -20

Households


Change in Households over previous year-308 +208 -179 +293 +307 +215 +64 +211 -179 +85 +380 +481 +86 +76 +326 +257 +203 +570 -88 +96 +155 +96 +124 +125 +97 +92 +85


Change in over previous year -329 +222 -192 +314 +329 +230 +69 +226 -192 +91 +407 +515 +92 +81 +349 +276 +218 +611 -94 +103 +166 +102 +133 +134 +104 +99 +91

Population Estimates and Forecasts Scenario I: Pendle Policy On



2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37

Births

Male 663 679 681 673 671 663 660 653 643 634 631 631 630 628 628 630 633 635 638 642 647 649 652 654 656 658

Female 631 647 649 641 639 632 628 622 613 604 601 601 600 598 598 600 603 605 608 611 616 618 621 623 625 626

All Births 1,294 1,326 1,330 1,314 1,310 1,295 1,288 1,276 1,256 1,237 1,232 1,232 1,229 1,226 1,226 1,229 1,235 1,240 1,246 1,253 1,263 1,267 1,272 1,276 1,281 1,284

TFR 2.19 2.26 2.26 2.24 2.22 2.21 2.21 2.20 2.19 2.18 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.18 2.18 2.18 2.19 2.19 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.21 2.21 2.21

Births input

Deaths

Male 398 406 391 382 382 382 380 380 380 381 383 385 389 392 396 402 407 410 416 422 425 429 436 437 441 446

Female 422 435 404 396 386 387 380 378 374 371 371 371 370 373 375 376 380 384 387 393 397 402 407 411 418 421

All deaths 820 840 796 779 768 769 759 758 754 752 754 756 760 765 772 779 787 794 804 815 822 831 843 848 859 867

SMR: males 113.9 113.3 107.6 102.9 100.6 98.3 95.5 93.3 90.9 88.7 86.6 84.5 82.9 81.1 79.6 78.5 77.0 75.4 74.6 73.6 72.2 71.1 70.4 68.9 68.1 67.5

SMR: females 113.9 117.0 109.6 106.7 103.2 102.6 99.6 97.7 95.4 92.8 91.1 89.4 87.4 86.1 84.6 82.7 81.3 80.2 78.8 77.9 76.7 75.7 74.7 73.7 73.1 72.1

SMR: persons 113.9 115.1 108.6 104.8 101.9 100.4 97.5 95.4 93.1 90.7 88.8 86.8 85.1 83.4 81.9 80.5 79.0 77.7 76.5 75.7 74.3 73.3 72.4 71.2 70.4 69.6




Deaths input


Male 1,458 1,511 1,525 1,556 1,461 1,493 1,504 1,454 1,471 1,559 1,584 1,566 1,548 1,550 1,549 1,580 1,554 1,548 1,552 1,559 1,508 1,513 1,517 1,520 1,523 1,527

Female 1,506 1,559 1,566 1,595 1,492 1,521 1,526 1,470 1,482 1,568 1,588 1,568 1,548 1,548 1,547 1,578 1,552 1,546 1,550 1,557 1,506 1,510 1,515 1,517 1,520 1,523

All 2,964 3,070 3,091 3,151 2,953 3,014 3,031 2,923 2,953 3,127 3,172 3,133 3,096 3,097 3,095 3,159 3,105 3,094 3,102 3,116 3,014 3,023 3,032 3,038 3,043 3,050

SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,789 1,672 1,654 1,623 1,727 1,695 1,686 1,728 1,711 1,620 1,590 1,612 1,631 1,633 1,636 1,618 1,650 1,662 1,663 1,658 1,717 1,721 1,723 1,725 1,728 1,733

Female 1,855 1,712 1,699 1,671 1,765 1,718 1,703 1,753 1,739 1,642 1,607 1,629 1,646 1,648 1,647 1,622 1,660 1,669 1,669 1,668 1,726 1,730 1,733 1,734 1,736 1,738

All 3,644 3,385 3,353 3,294 3,492 3,413 3,389 3,481 3,450 3,262 3,198 3,241 3,278 3,281 3,283 3,240 3,310 3,331 3,332 3,326 3,443 3,450 3,456 3,459 3,465 3,470

SMigR: males 37.9 35.5 35.2 34.4 36.5 35.9 35.8 36.7 36.5 34.7 34.0 34.3 34.6 34.5 34.4 33.9 34.3 34.4 34.2 33.9 34.9 34.9 34.9 34.9 34.9 35.0

SMigR: females 38.2 35.9 35.6 35.0 37.0 36.3 36.1 37.2 37.1 35.2 34.4 34.7 34.9 34.8 34.7 34.0 34.5 34.5 34.3 34.1 35.1 35.1 35.2 35.2 35.2 35.2

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 371 175 176 175 184 178 179 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175

Female 389 186 186 186 191 187 188 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185

All 760 361 361 361 375 365 367 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360


Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 225 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

Female 292 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103

All 517 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194

SMigR: males 85.1 34.3 34.4 34.4 34.3 34.5 34.6 34.6 34.9 35.0 35.0 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.6 34.4 34.2 34.1 33.9 33.7 33.6 33.6 33.5 33.5 33.4

SMigR: females 135.7 48.6 48.8 49.0 48.9 49.2 49.5 49.8 50.2 50.6 50.6 50.5 50.4 50.4 50.3 50.2 49.9 49.7 49.5 49.2 49.0 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.8 48.9

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK -680 -315 -262 -143 -538 -399 -358 -558 -497 -135 -26 -107 -182 -184 -187 -82 -205 -237 -229 -210 -429 -427 -424 -421 -422 -420

Overseas +243 +167 +168 +167 +181 +171 +173 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166


Natural change +474 +486 +534 +536 +542 +526 +529 +517 +502 +486 +478 +476 +470 +461 +455 +450 +449 +447 +442 +438 +441 +436 +430 +428 +422 +417

Net migration -437 -148 -94 +24 -358 -228 -185 -391 -330 +31 +140 +59 -15 -17 -21 +85 -38 -71 -63 -44 -263 -261 -257 -255 -255 -254

Net change +37 +338 +440 +559 +185 +298 +343 +126 +172 +517 +619 +535 +454 +444 +434 +535 +410 +376 +379 +394 +178 +175 +172 +173 +166 +163

Crude Birth Rate /000 14.44 14.77 14.75 14.50 14.39 14.18 14.06 13.89 13.66 13.40 13.26 13.18 13.08 12.99 12.93 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.90 12.92 12.99 13.00 13.03 13.05 13.07 13.09

Crude Death Rate /000 9.15 9.36 8.82 8.59 8.43 8.42 8.29 8.26 8.20 8.14 8.11 8.09 8.09 8.10 8.14 8.17 8.21 8.25 8.32 8.41 8.45 8.53 8.63 8.68 8.77 8.83

Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -4.88 -1.64 -1.04 0.26 -3.93 -2.50 -2.02 -4.26 -3.59 0.34 1.51 0.63 -0.16 -0.18 -0.22 0.89 -0.40 -0.74 -0.65 -0.45 -2.70 -2.67 -2.64 -2.61 -2.61 -2.59



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

0-4 6,382 6,424 6,382 6,340 6,323 6,268 6,249 6,214 6,146 6,082 6,043 6,017 5,987 5,956 5,933 5,920 5,926 5,928 5,936 5,951 5,976 5,990 6,008 6,029 6,052 6,076 6,097

5-10 6,572 6,609 6,777 7,043 7,179 7,268 7,280 7,371 7,322 7,259 7,236 7,210 7,205 7,179 7,140 7,101 7,070 7,036 7,000 6,969 6,949 6,926 6,911 6,902 6,901 6,908 6,923

11-15 5,367 5,343 5,285 5,229 5,245 5,333 5,392 5,423 5,647 5,780 5,888 5,958 6,047 6,025 6,003 5,988 5,971 5,962 5,944 5,915 5,886 5,842 5,800 5,759 5,723 5,693 5,672

16-17 2,194 2,175 2,257 2,181 2,143 2,109 2,118 2,162 2,056 2,081 2,200 2,270 2,270 2,342 2,463 2,453 2,446 2,431 2,414 2,422 2,420 2,404 2,390 2,377 2,363 2,344 2,323

18-59Female, 64Male 51,639 51,271 51,121 51,139 51,220 50,970 50,831 50,694 50,534 50,386 50,411 50,526 50,623 50,697 50,751 50,906 51,043 51,119 51,214 51,270 51,327 51,280 51,264 51,284 51,318 51,330 51,392

60/65 -74 10,660 10,935 11,266 11,522 11,864 12,121 12,386 12,559 12,613 12,656 12,757 12,629 12,604 12,650 12,669 12,714 12,930 13,078 13,219 13,384 13,545 13,597 13,634 13,622 13,602 13,565 13,423

75-84 4,814 4,892 4,906 4,984 4,952 5,016 5,100 5,254 5,441 5,633 5,782 6,234 6,582 6,842 7,128 7,361 7,499 7,620 7,662 7,695 7,764 7,675 7,655 7,690 7,719 7,792 7,967

85+ 1,948 1,964 1,956 1,953 2,026 2,050 2,078 2,099 2,145 2,198 2,274 2,366 2,427 2,508 2,557 2,633 2,726 2,848 3,009 3,170 3,304 3,634 3,863 4,034 4,192 4,328 4,403

Total 89,576 89,613 89,951 90,391 90,950 91,135 91,433 91,777 91,903 92,074 92,591 93,210 93,745 94,199 94,643 95,077 95,612 96,022 96,398 96,777 97,171 97,349 97,524 97,697 97,870 98,036 98,199


0-15 / 16-65 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33

65+ / 16-65 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.62 0.62 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74

Median age males 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.2 37.3 37.4 37.5 37.7 37.9 38.0 38.1 38.2 38.4 38.5 38.7 38.8 38.9 39.0 39.2 39.3 39.5 39.6 39.7 39.8 39.9 40.0




Number of persons -124 -5 +114 +159 +280 -117 +11 +50 -159 -85 +278 +382 +320 +256 +263 +254 +372 +249 +210 +209 +221

Labour Force


Change in Labour Force over previous year+0 -108 +17 +111 +111 -31 -31 -31 -30 -30 +109 +109 +109 +109 +109 +109 +109 +109 +109 +109 +109 -20 -1 +15 +10 -6 +7


Change in over previous year +0 -549 +80 +80 +80 +80 +80 +80 +80 +80 +80 +80 +80 +80 +80 +80 +80 +80 +80 +80 +80 -15 -1 +11 +7 -4 +5

Households





Population Estimates and Forecasts Scenario J: Pendle ELR Past Take Up Job Growth



2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37

Births

Male 663 679 685 682 684 680 680 678 671 665 666 669 670 671 674 678 683 688 692 698 699 699 700 701 702 703

Female 631 647 653 649 651 648 648 646 640 633 634 637 638 639 642 645 650 655 659 665 665 666 667 668 669 669

All Births 1,294 1,326 1,338 1,331 1,335 1,327 1,329 1,323 1,311 1,299 1,300 1,306 1,309 1,311 1,316 1,323 1,333 1,342 1,351 1,363 1,364 1,365 1,367 1,369 1,370 1,372

TFR 2.19 2.26 2.26 2.24 2.22 2.21 2.21 2.20 2.19 2.18 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.18 2.18 2.18 2.19 2.19 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.21 2.21 2.21

Births input

Deaths

Male 398 406 392 384 384 384 383 384 384 386 389 391 396 399 404 411 416 420 427 434 436 441 448 449 453 458

Female 422 435 405 398 388 389 383 381 378 375 376 377 377 380 383 384 388 393 397 403 407 412 417 421 428 432

All deaths 820 840 797 781 772 774 765 766 763 761 764 768 773 779 787 795 804 813 824 837 843 852 864 870 881 890

SMR: males 113.9 113.3 107.6 102.9 100.6 98.3 95.5 93.3 90.9 88.7 86.6 84.5 82.9 81.1 79.6 78.5 77.0 75.4 74.6 73.6 72.2 71.1 70.4 68.9 68.1 67.5

SMR: females 113.9 117.0 109.6 106.7 103.2 102.6 99.6 97.7 95.4 92.8 91.1 89.4 87.4 86.1 84.6 82.7 81.3 80.2 78.8 77.9 76.7 75.7 74.7 73.7 73.1 72.1

SMR: persons 113.9 115.1 108.6 104.8 101.9 100.4 97.5 95.4 93.1 90.7 88.8 86.8 85.1 83.4 81.9 80.5 79.0 77.6 76.5 75.7 74.3 73.3 72.4 71.2 70.4 69.6




Deaths input


Male 1,458 1,581 1,593 1,625 1,528 1,560 1,571 1,519 1,536 1,626 1,651 1,633 1,614 1,615 1,614 1,645 1,617 1,610 1,613 1,504 1,508 1,513 1,517 1,520 1,523 1,527

Female 1,506 1,632 1,637 1,665 1,561 1,589 1,594 1,536 1,549 1,635 1,656 1,635 1,614 1,614 1,612 1,643 1,615 1,608 1,611 1,502 1,506 1,510 1,515 1,517 1,520 1,523

All 2,964 3,213 3,230 3,290 3,089 3,149 3,165 3,055 3,085 3,262 3,307 3,268 3,229 3,229 3,225 3,289 3,232 3,218 3,224 3,005 3,014 3,023 3,032 3,038 3,043 3,050

SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,789 1,602 1,586 1,555 1,660 1,628 1,620 1,663 1,645 1,554 1,523 1,545 1,565 1,567 1,571 1,553 1,586 1,600 1,602 1,713 1,717 1,721 1,723 1,725 1,728 1,733

Female 1,855 1,640 1,628 1,601 1,696 1,650 1,635 1,686 1,672 1,575 1,539 1,561 1,580 1,582 1,581 1,557 1,597 1,607 1,608 1,723 1,726 1,730 1,733 1,734 1,736 1,738

All 3,644 3,241 3,214 3,156 3,356 3,279 3,255 3,349 3,318 3,128 3,063 3,106 3,145 3,149 3,153 3,110 3,183 3,207 3,210 3,436 3,443 3,450 3,456 3,459 3,465 3,470

SMigR: males 37.9 34.0 33.5 32.7 34.6 33.9 33.6 34.4 34.1 32.2 31.4 31.6 31.7 31.6 31.4 30.8 31.1 31.1 30.9 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8

SMigR: females 38.2 34.4 34.0 33.2 35.0 34.2 33.8 34.8 34.5 32.6 31.7 31.8 32.0 31.8 31.5 30.8 31.2 31.1 30.9 32.9 32.9 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 371 175 176 175 184 178 179 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175

Female 389 186 186 186 191 187 188 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185

All 760 361 361 361 375 365 367 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360


Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 225 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

Female 292 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103

All 517 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194

SMigR: males 85.1 34.3 34.2 34.1 33.8 33.9 33.8 33.7 33.8 33.8 33.6 33.4 33.2 33.1 32.9 32.7 32.4 32.2 31.9 31.7 31.6 31.6 31.5 31.5 31.5 31.4

SMigR: females 135.7 48.6 48.6 48.4 48.1 48.1 48.2 48.2 48.4 48.5 48.3 48.0 47.8 47.6 47.3 47.0 46.6 46.3 46.0 45.6 45.7 45.7 45.7 45.7 45.7 45.7

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK -680 -28 +16 +134 -267 -130 -90 -293 -233 +133 +244 +162 +84 +80 +73 +178 +49 +11 +14 -431 -429 -427 -424 -421 -422 -420

Overseas +243 +167 +168 +167 +181 +171 +173 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166


Natural change +474 +486 +541 +550 +563 +554 +563 +558 +548 +538 +535 +538 +536 +532 +529 +528 +529 +530 +527 +525 +521 +513 +503 +498 +489 +482

Net migration -437 +139 +183 +301 -87 +42 +84 -127 -66 +300 +410 +328 +250 +246 +239 +345 +215 +177 +180 -265 -263 -261 -257 -255 -255 -254

Net change +37 +625 +725 +851 +476 +595 +647 +431 +482 +837 +946 +866 +786 +778 +768 +872 +744 +707 +708 +261 +258 +252 +246 +243 +234 +228

Crude Birth Rate /000 14.44 14.75 14.77 14.56 14.50 14.34 14.25 14.12 13.92 13.69 13.57 13.51 13.42 13.34 13.28 13.25 13.25 13.24 13.24 13.28 13.26 13.24 13.23 13.21 13.20 13.18

Crude Death Rate /000 9.15 9.35 8.80 8.55 8.38 8.36 8.21 8.17 8.09 8.02 7.98 7.94 7.92 7.93 7.95 7.96 7.99 8.02 8.07 8.16 8.20 8.27 8.36 8.40 8.49 8.55

Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -4.88 1.55 2.02 3.29 -0.94 0.45 0.90 -1.36 -0.70 3.16 4.28 3.39 2.57 2.51 2.41 3.45 2.14 1.75 1.77 -2.58 -2.55 -2.53 -2.49 -2.46 -2.46 -2.44



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

0-4 6,382 6,424 6,407 6,394 6,409 6,388 6,406 6,411 6,380 6,354 6,351 6,359 6,362 6,362 6,368 6,382 6,413 6,438 6,467 6,503 6,508 6,515 6,523 6,533 6,542 6,551 6,560

5-10 6,572 6,609 6,796 7,082 7,240 7,353 7,391 7,511 7,494 7,466 7,482 7,498 7,536 7,556 7,560 7,564 7,573 7,578 7,577 7,580 7,560 7,548 7,542 7,539 7,539 7,544 7,553

11-15 5,367 5,343 5,298 5,254 5,283 5,385 5,458 5,504 5,745 5,897 6,025 6,117 6,230 6,232 6,238 6,254 6,269 6,295 6,314 6,320 6,303 6,280 6,257 6,233 6,213 6,196 6,187

16-17 2,194 2,175 2,262 2,192 2,158 2,129 2,143 2,192 2,089 2,120 2,247 2,324 2,330 2,410 2,541 2,539 2,542 2,536 2,529 2,550 2,553 2,547 2,542 2,538 2,533 2,522 2,510

18-59Female, 64Male 51,639 51,271 51,322 51,535 51,811 51,752 51,803 51,854 51,881 51,918 52,130 52,434 52,720 52,982 53,222 53,564 53,889 54,151 54,430 54,669 54,597 54,575 54,587 54,641 54,713 54,765 54,871

60/65 -74 10,660 10,935 11,280 11,550 11,907 12,180 12,462 12,653 12,724 12,785 12,907 12,796 12,791 12,858 12,898 12,966 13,208 13,381 13,548 13,740 13,904 13,968 14,017 14,015 14,005 13,979 13,846

75-84 4,814 4,892 4,911 4,994 4,967 5,036 5,125 5,285 5,479 5,678 5,834 6,297 6,657 6,926 7,224 7,469 7,619 7,750 7,803 7,847 7,916 7,829 7,814 7,855 7,890 7,972 8,156

85+ 1,948 1,964 1,961 1,961 2,038 2,065 2,096 2,121 2,170 2,226 2,306 2,403 2,468 2,553 2,606 2,687 2,785 2,912 3,080 3,248 3,377 3,712 3,944 4,119 4,280 4,419 4,497

Total 89,576 89,613 90,238 90,962 91,813 92,289 92,884 93,531 93,962 94,444 95,281 96,227 97,093 97,879 98,657 99,425 100,298 101,042 101,748 102,456 102,717 102,975 103,227 103,473 103,716 103,950 104,178


0-15 / 16-65 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34

65+ / 16-65 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73

Median age males 37.3 37.3 37.2 37.2 37.1 37.2 37.2 37.3 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.7 37.8 37.9 38.0 38.1 38.2 38.3 38.4 38.6 38.8 38.9 39.1 39.2 39.3 39.4 39.5




Number of persons -124 -5 +401 +436 +557 +154 +280 +319 +105 +179 +547 +652 +589 +522 +527 +514 +632 +502 +458 +452

Labour Force


Change in Labour Force over previous year+0 -108 +176 +270 +270 +126 +125 +124 +123 +122 +265 +265 +265 +265 +265 +265 +265 +265 +265 +265 +19 +2 +26 +45 +42 +29 +43


Change in over previous year +0 -549 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +14 +2 +19 +33 +31 +21 +32

Households





Population Estimates and Forecasts Scenario Ja: Pendle ELR Past Take Up Job Growth Sensitivity Test: Reduced Out-Commuting



2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37

Births

Male 663 679 682 676 674 668 665 660 651 642 639 640 639 638 638 640 643 646 649 653 655 656 658 660 662 664

Female 631 647 650 643 642 636 634 628 620 611 609 610 609 608 608 610 613 615 618 622 623 625 627 629 631 632

All Births 1,294 1,326 1,332 1,319 1,317 1,304 1,299 1,288 1,270 1,253 1,249 1,250 1,248 1,246 1,246 1,250 1,256 1,261 1,267 1,274 1,278 1,281 1,285 1,289 1,293 1,296

TFR 2.19 2.26 2.26 2.24 2.22 2.21 2.21 2.20 2.19 2.18 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.18 2.18 2.18 2.19 2.19 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.21 2.21 2.21

Births input

Deaths

Male 398 406 392 383 383 382 381 381 381 382 385 387 391 394 398 404 409 412 419 425 427 431 438 439 443 448

Female 422 435 404 397 386 388 380 379 375 372 372 372 372 375 377 378 382 386 389 395 399 403 408 413 420 423

All deaths 820 840 796 779 769 770 761 760 756 754 756 759 763 768 775 782 791 798 808 820 825 835 846 852 863 871

SMR: males 113.9 113.3 107.6 102.9 100.6 98.3 95.5 93.3 90.9 88.7 86.6 84.5 82.9 81.1 79.6 78.5 77.0 75.4 74.6 73.6 72.2 71.1 70.4 68.9 68.1 67.5

SMR: females 113.9 117.0 109.6 106.7 103.2 102.6 99.6 97.7 95.4 92.8 91.1 89.4 87.4 86.1 84.6 82.7 81.3 80.2 78.8 77.9 76.7 75.7 74.7 73.7 73.1 72.1

SMR: persons 113.9 115.1 108.6 104.8 101.9 100.4 97.5 95.4 93.1 90.7 88.8 86.8 85.1 83.4 81.9 80.5 79.0 77.7 76.5 75.7 74.3 73.3 72.4 71.2 70.4 69.6




Deaths input


Male 1,458 1,531 1,543 1,574 1,478 1,510 1,520 1,468 1,485 1,573 1,597 1,578 1,560 1,561 1,559 1,590 1,562 1,556 1,559 1,504 1,508 1,513 1,517 1,520 1,523 1,527

Female 1,506 1,580 1,586 1,613 1,510 1,537 1,542 1,485 1,497 1,582 1,602 1,580 1,560 1,559 1,557 1,588 1,560 1,554 1,557 1,502 1,506 1,510 1,515 1,517 1,520 1,523

All 2,964 3,110 3,129 3,188 2,988 3,047 3,062 2,953 2,982 3,155 3,199 3,159 3,120 3,120 3,116 3,178 3,123 3,109 3,116 3,005 3,014 3,023 3,032 3,038 3,043 3,050

SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,789 1,652 1,636 1,605 1,710 1,679 1,671 1,713 1,697 1,606 1,577 1,599 1,619 1,621 1,626 1,609 1,641 1,654 1,656 1,713 1,717 1,721 1,723 1,725 1,728 1,733

Female 1,855 1,692 1,679 1,653 1,747 1,701 1,687 1,738 1,724 1,628 1,594 1,616 1,635 1,637 1,636 1,612 1,652 1,661 1,662 1,723 1,726 1,730 1,733 1,734 1,736 1,738

All 3,644 3,344 3,315 3,258 3,457 3,380 3,357 3,451 3,421 3,235 3,171 3,215 3,254 3,259 3,262 3,221 3,293 3,315 3,318 3,436 3,443 3,450 3,456 3,459 3,465 3,470

SMigR: males 37.9 35.1 34.7 34.0 36.0 35.4 35.2 36.2 35.9 34.1 33.4 33.7 34.0 33.9 33.8 33.3 33.7 33.8 33.6 34.6 34.6 34.6 34.6 34.5 34.6 34.6

SMigR: females 38.2 35.5 35.2 34.5 36.5 35.7 35.5 36.6 36.5 34.6 33.8 34.1 34.3 34.2 34.0 33.3 33.8 33.8 33.7 34.7 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 371 175 176 175 184 178 179 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175

Female 389 186 186 186 191 187 188 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185

All 760 361 361 361 375 365 367 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360


Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 225 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

Female 292 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103

All 517 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194

SMigR: males 85.1 34.3 34.3 34.3 34.2 34.3 34.4 34.4 34.6 34.7 34.7 34.5 34.4 34.4 34.3 34.2 33.9 33.8 33.6 33.4 33.4 33.3 33.2 33.2 33.1 33.1

SMigR: females 135.7 48.6 48.8 48.8 48.7 48.9 49.2 49.3 49.7 50.0 50.0 49.9 49.8 49.7 49.6 49.4 49.2 48.9 48.7 48.5 48.5 48.4 48.4 48.4 48.3 48.4

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK -680 -234 -186 -70 -470 -333 -295 -498 -440 -79 +28 -57 -134 -139 -146 -43 -170 -206 -202 -431 -429 -427 -424 -421 -422 -420

Overseas +243 +167 +168 +167 +181 +171 +173 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166


Natural change +474 +486 +536 +540 +548 +534 +538 +528 +514 +499 +492 +491 +485 +477 +471 +467 +466 +464 +459 +455 +452 +446 +439 +437 +430 +425

Net migration -437 -67 -19 +96 -289 -162 -122 -332 -273 +87 +194 +110 +32 +27 +20 +123 -4 -40 -35 -265 -263 -261 -257 -255 -255 -254

Net change +37 +419 +517 +636 +259 +371 +416 +196 +240 +586 +686 +601 +517 +505 +492 +591 +462 +424 +424 +190 +190 +186 +182 +182 +175 +172

Crude Birth Rate /000 14.44 14.76 14.75 14.52 14.42 14.23 14.11 13.95 13.72 13.47 13.34 13.26 13.16 13.07 13.01 12.97 12.97 12.96 12.96 13.00 13.01 13.02 13.03 13.05 13.06 13.07

Crude Death Rate /000 9.15 9.36 8.82 8.58 8.42 8.40 8.27 8.23 8.17 8.11 8.08 8.05 8.05 8.06 8.09 8.12 8.16 8.20 8.27 8.36 8.40 8.48 8.58 8.63 8.71 8.78

Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -4.88 -0.75 -0.21 1.06 -3.16 -1.77 -1.33 -3.60 -2.95 0.94 2.07 1.16 0.34 0.29 0.21 1.28 -0.04 -0.41 -0.36 -2.70 -2.67 -2.65 -2.61 -2.58 -2.58 -2.56



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

0-4 6,382 6,424 6,389 6,355 6,346 6,300 6,291 6,265 6,206 6,151 6,120 6,100 6,076 6,051 6,033 6,024 6,032 6,037 6,046 6,063 6,068 6,077 6,090 6,106 6,124 6,143 6,161

5-10 6,572 6,609 6,782 7,054 7,196 7,290 7,309 7,408 7,366 7,311 7,297 7,281 7,286 7,270 7,240 7,209 7,185 7,158 7,127 7,101 7,068 7,045 7,030 7,019 7,016 7,019 7,029

11-15 5,367 5,343 5,289 5,236 5,255 5,347 5,409 5,444 5,672 5,809 5,921 5,996 6,091 6,074 6,058 6,050 6,039 6,038 6,027 6,004 5,970 5,930 5,892 5,854 5,820 5,792 5,772

16-17 2,194 2,175 2,258 2,184 2,147 2,115 2,125 2,170 2,064 2,091 2,212 2,283 2,284 2,358 2,481 2,472 2,468 2,454 2,439 2,450 2,446 2,432 2,420 2,409 2,397 2,380 2,361

18-59Female, 64Male 51,639 51,271 51,178 51,248 51,380 51,179 51,086 50,993 50,876 50,767 50,832 50,985 51,118 51,226 51,311 51,497 51,663 51,766 51,886 51,964 51,876 51,835 51,825 51,852 51,895 51,915 51,986

60/65 -74 10,660 10,935 11,270 11,530 11,876 12,137 12,406 12,584 12,641 12,688 12,794 12,669 12,649 12,699 12,721 12,771 12,992 13,144 13,289 13,459 13,611 13,665 13,704 13,693 13,675 13,640 13,500

75-84 4,814 4,892 4,908 4,987 4,956 5,022 5,106 5,262 5,451 5,644 5,795 6,249 6,600 6,861 7,150 7,385 7,526 7,648 7,692 7,727 7,791 7,703 7,684 7,720 7,750 7,825 8,002

85+ 1,948 1,964 1,958 1,955 2,029 2,054 2,082 2,105 2,151 2,205 2,282 2,375 2,436 2,518 2,568 2,645 2,738 2,861 3,023 3,185 3,314 3,646 3,875 4,047 4,206 4,343 4,418

Total 89,576 89,613 90,032 90,549 91,185 91,444 91,815 92,231 92,426 92,667 93,252 93,939 94,539 95,057 95,561 96,053 96,644 97,106 97,529 97,953 98,143 98,333 98,518 98,700 98,882 99,057 99,229


0-15 / 16-65 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33

65+ / 16-65 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.62 0.62 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74

Median age males 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.2 37.2 37.3 37.3 37.5 37.6 37.8 37.9 38.0 38.1 38.3 38.4 38.5 38.6 38.8 38.9 39.0 39.2 39.4 39.5 39.6 39.7 39.8 39.9




Number of persons -124 -5 +195 +234 +353 -49 +76 +113 -99 -28 +334 +436 +371 +304 +308 +295 +411 +284 +241 +236

Labour Force


Change in Labour Force over previous year+0 -108 +62 +154 +152 +9 +7 +6 +4 +3 +142 +140 +139 +137 +136 +135 +133 +132 +130 +129 -4 -18 +4 +21 +17 +2 +14


Change in over previous year +0 -468 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 -3 -14 +3 +16 +13 +1 +11

Households





Population Estimates and Forecasts Scenario Jb: Pendle ELR Past Take Up Job Growth Sensitivity Test: Reduced Vacancy Rate



2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37

Births

Male 663 679 685 682 684 680 680 678 671 665 666 669 670 671 674 678 683 688 692 698 699 699 700 701 702 703

Female 631 647 653 649 651 648 648 646 640 633 634 637 638 639 642 645 650 655 659 665 665 666 667 668 669 669

All Births 1,294 1,326 1,338 1,331 1,335 1,327 1,329 1,323 1,311 1,299 1,300 1,306 1,309 1,311 1,316 1,323 1,333 1,342 1,351 1,363 1,364 1,365 1,367 1,369 1,370 1,372

TFR 2.19 2.26 2.26 2.24 2.22 2.21 2.21 2.20 2.19 2.18 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.18 2.18 2.18 2.19 2.19 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.21 2.21 2.21

Births input

Deaths

Male 398 406 392 384 384 384 383 384 384 386 389 391 396 399 404 411 416 420 427 434 436 441 448 449 453 458

Female 422 435 405 398 388 389 383 381 378 375 376 377 377 380 383 384 388 393 397 403 407 412 417 421 428 432

All deaths 820 840 797 781 772 774 765 766 763 761 764 768 773 779 787 795 804 813 824 837 843 852 864 870 881 890

SMR: males 113.9 113.3 107.6 102.9 100.6 98.3 95.5 93.3 90.9 88.7 86.6 84.5 82.9 81.1 79.6 78.5 77.0 75.4 74.6 73.6 72.2 71.1 70.4 68.9 68.1 67.5

SMR: females 113.9 117.0 109.6 106.7 103.2 102.6 99.6 97.7 95.4 92.8 91.1 89.4 87.4 86.1 84.6 82.7 81.3 80.2 78.8 77.9 76.7 75.7 74.7 73.7 73.1 72.1

SMR: persons 113.9 115.1 108.6 104.8 101.9 100.4 97.5 95.4 93.1 90.7 88.8 86.8 85.1 83.4 81.9 80.5 79.0 77.6 76.5 75.7 74.3 73.3 72.4 71.2 70.4 69.6




Deaths input


Male 1,458 1,581 1,593 1,625 1,528 1,560 1,571 1,519 1,536 1,626 1,651 1,633 1,614 1,615 1,614 1,645 1,617 1,610 1,613 1,504 1,508 1,513 1,517 1,520 1,523 1,527

Female 1,506 1,632 1,637 1,665 1,561 1,589 1,594 1,536 1,549 1,635 1,656 1,635 1,614 1,614 1,612 1,643 1,615 1,608 1,611 1,502 1,506 1,510 1,515 1,517 1,520 1,523

All 2,964 3,213 3,230 3,290 3,089 3,149 3,165 3,055 3,085 3,262 3,307 3,268 3,229 3,229 3,225 3,289 3,232 3,218 3,224 3,005 3,014 3,023 3,032 3,038 3,043 3,050

SMigR: males 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMigR: females 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,789 1,602 1,586 1,555 1,660 1,628 1,620 1,663 1,645 1,554 1,523 1,545 1,565 1,567 1,571 1,553 1,586 1,600 1,602 1,713 1,717 1,721 1,723 1,725 1,728 1,733

Female 1,855 1,640 1,628 1,601 1,696 1,650 1,635 1,686 1,672 1,575 1,539 1,561 1,580 1,582 1,581 1,557 1,597 1,607 1,608 1,723 1,726 1,730 1,733 1,734 1,736 1,738

All 3,644 3,241 3,214 3,156 3,356 3,279 3,255 3,349 3,318 3,128 3,063 3,106 3,145 3,149 3,153 3,110 3,183 3,207 3,210 3,436 3,443 3,450 3,456 3,459 3,465 3,470

SMigR: males 37.9 34.0 33.5 32.7 34.6 33.9 33.6 34.4 34.1 32.2 31.4 31.6 31.7 31.6 31.4 30.8 31.1 31.1 30.9 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8

SMigR: females 38.2 34.4 34.0 33.2 35.0 34.2 33.8 34.8 34.5 32.6 31.7 31.8 32.0 31.8 31.5 30.8 31.2 31.1 30.9 32.9 32.9 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 371 175 176 175 184 178 179 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175

Female 389 186 186 186 191 187 188 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185

All 760 361 361 361 375 365 367 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360


Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 225 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

Female 292 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103

All 517 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194

SMigR: males 85.1 34.3 34.2 34.1 33.8 33.9 33.8 33.7 33.8 33.8 33.6 33.4 33.2 33.1 32.9 32.7 32.4 32.2 31.9 31.7 31.6 31.6 31.5 31.5 31.5 31.4

SMigR: females 135.7 48.6 48.6 48.4 48.1 48.1 48.2 48.2 48.4 48.5 48.3 48.0 47.8 47.6 47.3 47.0 46.6 46.3 46.0 45.6 45.7 45.7 45.7 45.7 45.7 45.7

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK -680 -28 +16 +134 -267 -130 -90 -293 -233 +133 +244 +162 +84 +80 +73 +178 +49 +11 +14 -431 -429 -427 -424 -421 -422 -420

Overseas +243 +167 +168 +167 +181 +171 +173 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166 +166


Natural change +474 +486 +541 +550 +563 +554 +563 +558 +548 +538 +535 +538 +536 +532 +529 +528 +529 +530 +527 +525 +521 +513 +503 +498 +489 +482

Net migration -437 +139 +183 +301 -87 +42 +84 -127 -66 +300 +410 +328 +250 +246 +239 +345 +215 +177 +180 -265 -263 -261 -257 -255 -255 -254

Net change +37 +625 +725 +851 +476 +595 +647 +431 +482 +837 +946 +866 +786 +778 +768 +872 +744 +707 +708 +261 +258 +252 +246 +243 +234 +228

Crude Birth Rate /000 14.44 14.75 14.77 14.56 14.50 14.34 14.25 14.12 13.92 13.69 13.57 13.51 13.42 13.34 13.28 13.25 13.25 13.24 13.24 13.28 13.26 13.24 13.23 13.21 13.20 13.18

Crude Death Rate /000 9.15 9.35 8.80 8.55 8.38 8.36 8.21 8.17 8.09 8.02 7.98 7.94 7.92 7.93 7.95 7.96 7.99 8.02 8.07 8.16 8.20 8.27 8.36 8.40 8.49 8.55

Crude Net Migration Rate /000 -4.88 1.55 2.02 3.29 -0.94 0.45 0.90 -1.36 -0.70 3.16 4.28 3.39 2.57 2.51 2.41 3.45 2.14 1.75 1.77 -2.58 -2.55 -2.53 -2.49 -2.46 -2.46 -2.44



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

0-4 6,382 6,424 6,407 6,394 6,409 6,388 6,406 6,411 6,380 6,354 6,351 6,359 6,362 6,362 6,368 6,382 6,413 6,438 6,467 6,503 6,508 6,515 6,523 6,533 6,542 6,551 6,560

5-10 6,572 6,609 6,796 7,082 7,240 7,353 7,391 7,511 7,494 7,466 7,482 7,498 7,536 7,556 7,560 7,564 7,573 7,578 7,577 7,580 7,560 7,548 7,542 7,539 7,539 7,544 7,553

11-15 5,367 5,343 5,298 5,254 5,283 5,385 5,458 5,504 5,745 5,897 6,025 6,117 6,230 6,232 6,238 6,254 6,269 6,295 6,314 6,320 6,303 6,280 6,257 6,233 6,213 6,196 6,187

16-17 2,194 2,175 2,262 2,192 2,158 2,129 2,143 2,192 2,089 2,120 2,247 2,324 2,330 2,410 2,541 2,539 2,542 2,536 2,529 2,550 2,553 2,547 2,542 2,538 2,533 2,522 2,510

18-59Female, 64Male 51,639 51,271 51,322 51,535 51,811 51,752 51,803 51,854 51,881 51,918 52,130 52,434 52,720 52,982 53,222 53,564 53,889 54,151 54,430 54,669 54,597 54,575 54,587 54,641 54,713 54,765 54,871

60/65 -74 10,660 10,935 11,280 11,550 11,907 12,180 12,462 12,653 12,724 12,785 12,907 12,796 12,791 12,858 12,898 12,966 13,208 13,381 13,548 13,740 13,904 13,968 14,017 14,015 14,005 13,979 13,846

75-84 4,814 4,892 4,911 4,994 4,967 5,036 5,125 5,285 5,479 5,678 5,834 6,297 6,657 6,926 7,224 7,469 7,619 7,750 7,803 7,847 7,916 7,829 7,814 7,855 7,890 7,972 8,156

85+ 1,948 1,964 1,961 1,961 2,038 2,065 2,096 2,121 2,170 2,226 2,306 2,403 2,468 2,553 2,606 2,687 2,785 2,912 3,080 3,248 3,377 3,712 3,944 4,119 4,280 4,419 4,497

Total 89,576 89,613 90,238 90,962 91,813 92,289 92,884 93,531 93,962 94,444 95,281 96,227 97,093 97,879 98,657 99,425 100,298 101,042 101,748 102,456 102,717 102,975 103,227 103,473 103,716 103,950 104,178


0-15 / 16-65 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34

65+ / 16-65 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73

Median age males 37.3 37.3 37.2 37.2 37.1 37.2 37.2 37.3 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.7 37.8 37.9 38.0 38.1 38.2 38.3 38.4 38.6 38.8 38.9 39.1 39.2 39.3 39.4 39.5




Number of persons -124 -5 +401 +436 +557 +154 +280 +319 +105 +179 +547 +652 +589 +522 +527 +514 +632 +502 +458 +452

Labour Force


Change in Labour Force over previous year+0 -108 +176 +270 +270 +126 +125 +124 +123 +122 +265 +265 +265 +265 +265 +265 +265 +265 +265 +265 +19 +2 +26 +45 +42 +29 +43


Change in over previous year +0 -549 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +194 +14 +2 +19 +33 +31 +21 +32

Households






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