houses of parliament 2006-10-17 outflanked! on the swedish election by peter gustavsson 1...

Houses of Parliament 2006-10-17

Outflanked! On the Swedish election by Peter Gustavsson

1

Outflanked!- How Fredrik Reinfeldt

succeeded to out-social democrat the Social Democrats

By Peter Gustavsson



2

The Swedish political system

• Proportional representation, with a 4 % threshold to get into parliament

• Simultanous elections to all three levels – local, regional and national. Strong local influence on how policies are implemented.



3

Political parties and figures from the September 17th election

• Social Democrats, 34,99%• Left Party, 5,85%• Green Party, 5,24%

• Moderates (Conservatives), 26,23%

• Centre Party, 7,88%• Liberals, 7,54%• Christian Democrats, 6,59%

Others: Sweden Democrats 2,93%, Feminist Initiative 0,68%, Pirate Party 0,63%, Swedish Pensioners’ Interest Party 0,52%, June List 0,47%, Health Care Party 0,21%



4

1932-76: Fourty-four years of Social Democratic government

• The People’s Home• Universal welfare state: Only the best is good

enough for the people. Schools, hospitals, elder care, child care as well as social insurances

• Rehn-Meidner model: Combine full employment with low inflation. Solidarity wages policy, active labour market policy, government regulating the level of demand.



5

1976-90: The Swedish exception• Right-wing government elected with full

employment highest on its agenda. Constant governmental crisis 1976-82.

• Social Democratic government again from 1982. Sweden an exception to the European mass unemployment – levels between 2 and 3 per cent.

• Adaption to neo liberal wave from 1985 - ”November revolution” deregulating credits.

• Massive speculation on real estate and stocks causing economic bubble in the late 1980’s.



6

1990-91: War of the Roses• 1990: Social Democratic government proposing

crisis programme temporarily abolishing strikes – unions protest. Left Party withdraws its parliamentary support for the government.

• New Social Democratic government, same direction. Inflation prioritized over unemployment, tax reform reducing taxes for the rich, joining the ERM, application to join the EU.

• Big electoral loss for Social Democrats – right wing govt formed led by Carl Bildt in 1991.



7

1991-94: ERM crisis and system change

• ERM disaster in November 1992.

• Three years of right wing government: doubled state debt, tripled unemployment, quadrupled deficit.

• Privatisations, school vouchers, preparations for pension ”reform” etc



8

1994-98: Budget sanitation• New Social Democrat government in 1994: Tax

rises and massive cuts in welfare systems.• Increasing protests on the amount of cuts and the

need for an employment policy• Peace between Social Democrats and unions in

1997 – declaration that open unemployment is to be reduced to 4 per cent in 2000.

• ”Proud, not satisfied”, ”schools, hospitals, care”• Election in 1998 big setback for Social Democrats,

but the Left Party took the votes and the left/green alliance could stay in power



9

The price of high unemployment – drop in party membership

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

200 000

220 000

240 000

260 000

280 000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Medlemsantal



10

1998-2002: Successful employment policy

• In 2001, the Social Democrats succeeded achieving 4 per cent unemployment.

• 2002 election won on fighting Moderate demands on big tax cuts – ”rather welfare than big tax cuts for the rich”



11

The post-ERM red-green majority

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

9109

9203

9210

9302

9306

9312

9404

9408

9410

9501

9504

9508

9511

9602

9605

9609

9612

9704

9708

9711

9802

9805

9808

9812

9903

9906

9910

0001

0004

0008

0011

0102

0105

0109

0112

0203

0206

Center-right parties

Red-green parties

Source: (Synovate) TEMO polls 1991-2002



12

The road downwards• September 14th 2003: Referendum on the euro – hard

internal split and Göran Persson is said to be ”bullying” eurosceptics in his own party

• September 11th, 2003: Anna Lindh, presumed successor as leader, is murdered

• October 25th, 2003: Fredrik Reinfeldt is elected leader for the Moderates, setting a new course called the ”New Moderates” or ”the new labour party” (nya arbeiderpartiet)

• June 13th, 2004: Social Democrats loses the European elections to a new eurosceptic party, the June List

• Summer 2004: Göran Persson decides to hang on as leader, while already thinking of his future as owner of a big estate in the rural areas of his native county Sörmland



13

The 2003-04 recession – open unemployment figures



14

The “New Moderates” I• Acceptance for trade unions and collective

bargaining

• Acceptance for publicly financed schools and hospitals

• Reduction in demand for tax cuts

• “The soap” – as soon as you start to attack them, they slide away and change position



15

The “New Moderates” II• Pushing for cuts in social insurances

• Pushing for privatisations

• Pushing in EU for directives that weaken Swedish social model

• Presented as “reformist” rather than “revolutionary” as right wing policy has to be carried out by stealth



16

Two years of election campaign, episode one

• August 30th, 2004: Alliance for Sweden is formed in Högfors by the leaders of the four right-wing parties

• September 2004: National television broadcast two programs on the Left Party’s communist past and present, resulting in intensified infightings in the Party. Popular support plummits.

• Autumn 2004: Scandals in trade unions hurt govt trust

• December 26th, 2004: Tsunami in East Asia kills 453 Swedes, govt blamed for slow response. A long lasting media campaign starts



17

Two years of election campaign, episode two

• January 2005: Big storm destroying vast forest lands in southern Sweden.

• February-March 2005: Scandal in Social Democratic Youth expands, leading to chair’s resignation

• May 2005: Social Democrat leader in Stockholm, Annika Billström, attacks party comrades publicly for conspiring against her. Two TV programs start the attacks on new feminist party

• August 2005: Youth congress compromise ends infighting in the Social Democrats

• November 2005: Social Democrat congress decides to change labour market policy and make full employment the number one priority



18

Red-green majority broken



19

Election debate I

Social Democrats:• Good times for

Sweden, good in international comparison

• The jobs are coming• Let all benefit from

this

Moderates:• Social Democrats have

governed for 12 years, they’re tired and out of visions

• Social Democrats are just hiding unemployment



20

Election debate II

Social Democrats:• They are the same old

moderates• They fight the

unemployed, not unemployment

Moderates:• Sweden need more

jobs – we want to make it worth the while to work instead of living on benefits



21

Heard on the doorstep

• ”I’m not against the Social Democrats, but I dislike Persson”

• ”Social Democrats have left their ideals, you’re doing right-wing policies. It doesn’t matter how I vote”

• ”There are so many unemployed, and you haven’t fixed that”

• ”You’ve been in power for 12 years, I think it’s time for a change”



22

The result

• Small majority – 178 seats for the government, 171 for the opposition.

• Good results in Social Democratic heartlands and in areas where we campaigned well.

• Fairly good results in Gothenburg and Malmö due to high confidence in local politicians and good local campaigns.

• Biggest losses in the capital. Without the capital, the Social Democrats would have won.



23

Extreme right knocking on the door

• Sweden Democrats had 2,93%, compared to 1,42% last election.

• Seats in many local councils all over the country. Landskrona 22%!

• Grow from unemployment and increasing social inequalities. As long as we don’t have a strong policy against that, the will continue to grow.

• In the next election they will get into parliament unless we counter them effectively.



24

Unemployment – the main electoral liability

• Economic policies adapted when neo-liberalism was strong has kept unemployment on high levels

• The party lacked a clear vision for the future• The movement and the government was involved

in scandal after scandal• Persson looked tired• Persson was building a big mansion – unpopular

among voters (especially our core vote)



25

Best Social Democrat wins• Most Swedish elections are won by the Social

Democratic Party.• When Social Democrats lose, it’s most often

because other parties are better at seeming to be Social Democrat

• In 1976, the Centre Party promised to stick to full employment and close down nuclear power

• In 1998, the Left Party acted as the safeguard of the welfare state to Social Democrat cuts

• Only one exception – the 1991 election after a terrible War of the Roses



26

Outflanked

• Social Democrats said that ”the jobs are coming”, Moderates said that we need political measures to create jobs

• Social Democrats seemed tired and out of a vision, Moderates promised ”change”.

• The ”New Labour” message made voters think that the New Moderates was just a better form of Social Democrats. The voters who could afford the risk, dared voting for the opposition.



27

Summary• Both labour parties plummeted in electoral support

at the same time – the communicating vessels went out of function.

• Long time in power, problems renewing in government. Disappointment with results of right wing economic policies.

• The Moderates made a total political make-over and succeeded in sticking together with the rest of the right wing.



28

One month later• Social Democratic leader resigned election

night and the leader of the Stockholm Social Democrats was sacked by an overwhelming majority

• “We stood as New Moderates, we will govern as New Moderates”…

• … but the honeymoon was short. New scandals every day – two ministers have already resigned. “The worst start for a government ever”



29

Three things we must change• Re-build the party! Have gone from a million members to

140 000 in 15 years. Re-establish the connection to the citizens in their daily lives.

• Renewal! A 21st century vision that continue building on what made Social Democracy strong in the 20th century. The inequalities in the new service society. Investing in education to meet tomorrow. Facing gender inequalities with efficient policies. Anti-racist policies fighting injustices. Global challenges and opportunities. Climate change and the ”green people’s home”. Modern leaders speaking modern language

• Reconsider our near past! This failure is closely related to failed economic policies. The party needs a new economic theory, that puts employment and human well-being at the centre.

houses of parliament 2006-10-17 outflanked! on the swedish election by peter gustavsson 1...

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