hot data points asa leadership meeting may 2015 participants: gail o’kane, cao at mctc tom...
TRANSCRIPT
Hot Data PointsASA Leadership Meeting
May 2015
Participants:Gail O’Kane, CAO at MCTCTom Williamson, Director of Academic Operations at MCTCTabatha Miller, Research Analyst at MCTCCraig Schoenecker, Director of Research at System OfficeJohn Asmussen, Asmussen ResearchDavid Jones, MSU MankatoPeter Weilinski, Minnesota State Community and Technical College
Student Enrollment/Success
Which Prospects Convert?
•50% of applicants enroll•Math and (especially) Reading placements predict conversion
- MCTC IR
Low-Income Students Are Now “Overrepresented”
*could be due to change in Pell eligibility standards
SOURCE: MCTC IR
Transfer Students Are Much More College Ready
SOURCE: Asmussen Rearch
• 28% of Transfer Students were College Ready
• 6% of First Time were College Ready
High school class rank better predictor of course completion than Accuplacer
• 90% of students in top quartile of their high school class completed 2/3 of their first-term courses at MnSCU 2-year Colleges (compared to 45% of students in the bottom quartile).*
* preliminary results
SOURCE: Asmussen Research
Many “Full-Time” Students Are Part-Time Students
(First-Time Students-excluding ELL, MCTC, Fall 2005-2007)
347
Earned 0 credits
15% Left without earning a credit!
SOURCE: Asmussen Research
ONLY 52% of FT/FT students (our IPEDS cohort) were actually full-time
Getting Off to a Good Start Is Critical
• 71% of students who complete 67% of their first-term credits end up graduating, retained, or transferred compared to 15% of those who don’t -- regardless of placement level and credit load
• English is a gateway to an associate’s degree. Students who complete college English have a success rate of 70%, compared to 30% for those who don’t.o Takeaway: One key approach closing completion gap – close course success
gaps in gateway English courses
SOURCE: Asmussen Research
Continuously enrolled students outperform stop-outs at all departure points
Success includes graduation with any credential or transfer after making satisfactory academic progress.
SOURCE: Asmussen Research
On average student earn 12 unproductive credits on their way to an Associate’s degree
SOURCE: MCTC IR
Prerequisite decisions as a social justice issue
SOURCE: Asmussen Research
% of Black/African American new students placing into lowest levels of Math• 72% of males• 85% of females
Predictive Analytics in Action: MSU MankatoImpact on Persistence by Model Variable
# of students at risk for this
variable
Persistence Rate of at-
risk students
757 58.3%
1292 67.7%
1626 69.9%
750 68.1%
1710 71.6%
1024 71.2%
441 69.8%
Subdivision or College Educational AspirationCategories with persistence rates below
Expected Family Contribution > 0 Flag
Financial Needs Values of 0
In-State Tuition Eligibility Flag
Financial Needs Values of 0
Initial Source Code InstitutionalCategories with persistence rates below
Total Financial Aid Package (Optimal Binning)
Financial NeedsTotal financial aid package of $5,466.50 and below.
No. of Days as Applicant (Optimal Binning)
Educational AspirationWithin 251 days of enrollment.
Model Variable Risk Category Risk Threshold
Percent of Need Met (Optimal Binning)
Financial NeedsLess than 80% of need being met.
- David P. Jones (Vice President for Student Affairs & Enrollment Management)
Risk Factor Analysis
# of Risk Factors Count # Persist
Persistence Rate
Avg. Model Score
0 846 747 88.3% 0.69
1 1406 1164 82.8% 0.58
2 1320 960 72.7% 0.46
3 708 462 65.3% 0.35
4 284 162 57.0% 0.23
5 49 19 38.8% 0.17
6 7 2 28.6% 0.12
7 1 0 0.0% 0.08
Model Score 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70.00-0.09 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 6.00.10-0.19 0 0 0 8 85 34 5 0 4.30.20-0.29 0 0 10 187 158 14 0 0 3.50.30-0.39 0 0 294 306 41 0 0 0 2.60.40-0.49 0 212 520 194 0 0 0 0 2.00.50-0.59 1 521 467 13 0 0 0 0 1.50.60-0.69 454 623 29 0 0 0 0 0 0.60.70-0.79 384 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.10.80-0.89 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00.90-1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
# of Risk Factors Avg. # of Risk Factors
- David P. Jones (Vice President for Student Affairs & Enrollment Management)
Predictive Analytics in Action: MSU Mankato
Financial Issues – Students and Institutions
SOURCE: MCTC Academic Operations
MCTC1% increase of course saturation (fill rate) in lower division and developmental courses yields an additional $360,000 per fiscal year in revenue
MnSCU1% increase of course saturation (fill rate) in lower division and developmental courses could yield approximately $12.5 million per fiscal year in additional revenue for MnSCU institutions
19
MnSCU is ranked 38th out of 51 states and DC in administrative spending per FYE
Vermont
Distric
t of C
olumbia
New York
New Hampshire
Alaska
Delaware
Connecticu
t
Maryland
New Jerse
yIowa
Wyo
ming
Rhode Island
Alabama
North Dako
ta
Montana
Pennsylva
nia
West
Virginia
Illinois
Massach
usetts
OregonOhio
Kentucky
Kansas
Nebraska
South Dakota
Indiana
Louisi
ana
Wisc
onsin
GeorgiaUtah
Arkansa
s
Mississ
ippi
Maine
North Carolin
a
California
Virginia
South Carolina
MnSCU
Nevada
Florida
Michigan
New Mexic
o
Oklahoma
Texas
Missouri
Idaho
Hawaii
Arizona
Wash
ington
Tennessee
Colorado$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000A
dmin
istr
ative
spe
ndin
g pe
r fye
One in 3 MnSCU graduates attend more than one college or university
25.0%
39.0%
34.0%
22.0%
44.0%
28.0%
48.0%
34.0%
49.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Certificate Diploma Associate Bachelors Graduate All
Colleges Universities
20Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs
State support per FYE has begun to improve in constant dollars
… but is still 32% below 2002 levels
21
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 est
2015 est
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$4,766
$4,368
$3,924 $3,715
$3,994
$3,847
$3,980 $3,863
$3,261 $3,070
$2,787 $2,813
$3,079 $3,247
Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs
Students now paying 56% of college costs vs. 34% in FY02
22
FY2002 FY2003 FY2004
FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015*
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
66%
60%
55%
52%
53%
50%
51%
50%
45%
43%
40%
40%
42%
44%
34%
40%
45%
48%
47%
50%
49%
50%
55%
57%
60%
60%
58%
56%
Appropriation Tuition
Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs
Affordability: Tuition & fees as a percent of median income
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9% 4.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7% 5.7% 5.9% 5.8%
6.4%6.4% 6.7% 6.8% 7.3% 7.5% 7.7% 7.7% 8.1%
8.0%10.7%
10.9% 11.2% 11.6%12.8% 13.6% 14.3% 14.4% 15.0%
14.8%
27.7% 28.0%28.9% 29.1%
33.2%34.4%
35.5% 35.0%36.9% 37.0%
State Colleges State Universities University of Minnesota
Private Colleges and Universities
Tu
itio
n &
Fe
es
as
% o
f M
ed
ian
Inc
om
e
Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs
More MnSCU students are eligible for and are receiving financial aid
24Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs
MnSCU students are receiving increasing amounts of financial aid
25Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs
MnSCU% with No Debt
MnSCU % withDebt
Median Debt for those
with Debt
Median Debt for all
Graduates
Certificates 46.4% 53.6% $11,028 $2,778
Associates Degrees 34.3% 65.7% $15,940 $8,777Baccalaureate Degree 26.3% 73.7% $26,057 $19,064
Student Loan Debt at Graduation Varies Greatly by Award(FY 2014 Graduates)
26Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs
Private institution graduates have more student loan debt
27Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs
Percent of Graduates With Student Loan Debt
Median Student Loan Debt at Graduation
Student borrowing has outpaced cost of attendance
• Student cost/FYE: • Fin Aid/FYE:
SOURCE: MCTC Finance Division*data from http://www2.ed.gov/offices/OSFAP/defaultmanagement/cdr2yr.html
• Borrowing has led to ~doubling of default rates2008 Cohort 2009 Cohort 2010 Cohort
7.8% 12.1% 14.1%
11.7%
47.1%
Using Data to Target Marketing
Using Data to Target Marketing Efforts
SOURCE: Peter Weilinski, Minnesota State Community and Technical College
Career Coach Source Career Wages Job Openings Outlook Growth Percentage
Retirement 65+
3-Year Placement Average
Involvement Ranking Average
Fall2Spring Fall2Fall Academic Performance Graduation Rate Placement Rate
OO OO OK OO na
Accounting, Accounting Clerk $9.85 45 47 4.10% 182 46%n/a WAGE OK JOB OPENINGS OK IN OK OO OK OK OO
Accounting, Accounting Clerk $9.85 45 47 4.10% 182 46%n/a WAGE OK JOB OPENINGS OK IN OK OK OK na na
Secretary and Administrative Assistant $10.40 29 30 2.80% 106 83% 3.5WAGE OK OO OK OK OK OO
Architechtural Drafter $14.43 1 1 -2.30% 0 61% 4.5WAGE OK OK OO OK OK OO
Master Mechanic - Automotive $9.16 24 24 0% 33 93% 4 OK OO OO OO OO
Automotive Body and Related Repair $9.99 8 8 5.40% 7 73% 2WAGE OK OK OO OK OO OO
n/a n/a n/a #VALUE! n/a n/a 67% 4WAGE OK #VALUE! #VALUE! OO OO OO OO OO
General Operations Manager $18.54 33 34 2.80% 48 75% 4WAGE OK OO OO OO OO OO
Teacher Assistant $8.85 55 56 1.70% 89 75% 3.5 JOB OPENINGS OK OO OO OO OO OK
Network and Computer Systems Administrator $26.81 6 7 9.60% 0 79% 3.5WAGE OK OO OO OO OK OO
SOURCE: Peter Weilinski, Minnesota State Community and Technical College
Using Data to Target Marketing Efforts
What are your hot data points?