homepage | escap - lessons learned from the …...lessons learned from the 2011 floods (the...
TRANSCRIPT
Lessons Learned from the 2011 Floods (The Philippines Country Report)
Free Powerpoint TemplatesSouth-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
PAGASA OCD-NDRRMC
Susan Ramos ESPINUEVA
PAGASA-DOST
Outline of presentation
1. Background
2. Notable tropical cyclones and their
impacts
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
impacts
3. Trends of flooding and response
4. Current initiatives
5. Lessons learned
The nature of flood hazard in the PH
According to any criteria, the Philippines
is an extremely dangerous place to
inhabit. One of the most comprehensive
records on the occurrence of recent
natural hazards even advised that the
archipelago has experienced more
disasters than any other country in the
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
world since 1900. - Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of
Disasters, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels (hereafter CRED) EM-DAT: The
OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.
Residents of southern Luzon were likely
to face a major typhoon once every five
to six years in the eighteenth century
and once every four to five years in the
19th century. - Rantucci, Geological Disasters in the Philippines, 27;
Archive of the Manila Observatory, Manila (hereafter AMO):
Weather-causing phenomena in the Philippines
The climate of the PH is
influenced by the complex
interactions of various factors
such as :
� Philippine Geography and
Topography
� Ocean currents
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
� Linear systems
� Principal Air Streams
� Semi-permanent
cyclones and anti-
cyclones
� Tropical Cyclones
� Ocean currents
Average Annual Rainfall = 2,500 mm
50% of the annual Rainfall – from Tropical Cyclones
TROPICAL CYCLONES in 2011
19 - annual average
19 tropical cyclones (TCs)
entered the Philippine
Area of Responsibility
(PAR) in 2011
• 6 Typhoons
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
• 6 Typhoons
• 8 Tropical Storms
• 5 Tropical Depression
7 TCs made landfall:
• 3 Typhoons
• 4 Tropical Storms
Date TC Name Affected Regions Casualtie
sTotal Damage
(PhP)
May 6-11 TS Bebeng (Aere) III, IV-A, IV-B, NCR, V, VII & VIII 35 2,253,233,275
May 20 - 28 TY Chedeng (Songda) NCR, II, V, IX, X, XII & ARMM 4 18,933,499
Jun 9 - 10 TS Dodong (Sarika) I, II, III, IV-A & IV-B 3 6,192,000
Jun 14 - 20 TD Egay (Haima) III & NCR 2
Jun 21 - 25 TS Falcon (Meari) I, II, III, NCR 12 646,851,793
Jul 25 - 28 TS Juaning (Nock-ten) III, IV-A, IV-B, V, VI, II,VIII & NCR 77 4,441,798,208
Impacts of TCs in 2011
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Jul 28-Aug 5 TS Kabayan (Muifa) I, III, IV-A, VI & NCR 8 2,500,000
Aug 21 - 29 TY Mina (Nanmadol) I, II, V, VI,CAR and NCR 36 2,089,349,409
Sep 24 - 28 TY Pedring (Nesat) I, II, III, IV-A, IV-B, V, VI, CAR & NCR 85 15,552,586,957
Sep29 -Oct 2 TY Quiel (Nalgae) I, II, III and CAR 17 115,075,527
Oct10 - 14 TS Ramon (Banyan) IV-B, VI, VII, VIII, X, XII & CARAGA 10
Dec 15 - 18 TS Sendong (Washi) VI, VII, IX, X, XI, ARMM & CARAGA 1268 1,455,825,723
TOTAL 15 regions 1557 26,582,346,395
Source: Office of Civil Defense (OCD)
Impacts of TCs and other phenomena
Damage to Properties (Billion
PhP)
Damaged Houses Total Population
Served (Million)
Agri Infra Private
PropertiesTotal Partial Families Persons
Tropical
Cyclones
18.368 8.203 0.011 39,500 149,063 0.763 3.542
Others* 1.303 2.142 0.001 2,745 7,635 0.474 2.304
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Total damage to Agriculture, Infrastructure and Private
Properties: PhP30.033 Billion (USD690.4 Million)
TCs: PhP26.582 Billion (USD611.1 Million)
Casualties: 1731 (1268 due to TS Washi)
Total 19.671 10.350 0.012 42,245 156,698 1.240 5.760
* Others: Southwest and Northeast monsoon rains, cold front, low pressure areas, Bulusan volcano,
fish kills, food poisoning, etc. Source: Office of Civil Defense (OCD)
Regions affected by TC/floods/flash floods in 2011
5 6
7
5
4 5
7
3
3
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
5
4
1
3
2
3
2
2
2
15 Regions
Hazard Maps
Topographic map
Frequency
of Tropical
Cyclone
Occurrence
Flood and landslide
prone provinces areas
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Flood & Storm
prone areas
18 Major
river
basins
Impacts of TY Pedring (Nesat) & STY Quiel (Nalgae)
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
TC Name Date Casualties Total Damage Impacts
TY Nesat Sep 24-28 85 Ph15.55 Billion
USD357.5 M
Widespread flooding in
Central Luzon
STY Nalgae Sep29 -Oct 2 17 Ph115.0 Million
USD2.65 M
Widespread flooding in
Central Luzon
Impacts of TY Pedring and STY Quiel
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Inundation Period MapInundation Depth Map
Issue:1. The LGUs blamed dam operators for releasing
water from spillways of Angat Dam.
2. Duration of flooding lasted for 2 weeks due to
constricted water ways in the downstream areas
of the Pampanga and Angat rivers.
Duration of flooding: 4 days to 2 weeks (dark blue shaded areas.
Impacts of Tropical Storm Washi
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
TS Washi – 19th TC and the most
destructive – dumped extreme rainfall
that triggered flash floods.
Casualties: 1268
Total Damage: 1,455,825,723
Dec 16, 2011 - 10AM LST Dec 16, 2011 4 PM LST Dec 16, 2011 5PM LST Dec 16, 2011 6PM LST
SATELLITE-BASED RAINFALL of TS WASHI
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Dec 16, 2011 7 PM LST Dec 16, 2011 8 PM LST Dec 16, 2011 9 PM LST
SATELLITE-BASED RAINFALL of TS WASHI
Dec 16, 2011 10 PM LST Dec 16, 2011 11 PM LST Dec 16, 2011 12 MN LST
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Dec 17, 2011 1 AM LST Dec 17, 2011 2 AM LST Dec 17, 2011 3 AM LST
SATELLITE-BASED RAINFALL of TS WASHI
Dec 16, 2011 - 9 P.M. LST
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
- PAGASA Synoptic station
Estimated RR in CDO river basin:~ 15 – 20 mm/hr
SATELLITE-BASED RAINFALL of TS WASHI
Dec 16, 2011 - 10 P.M. LST
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
- PAGASA Synoptic station
Estimated RR in CDO river basin:~ 25 – 30 mm/hr
SATELLITE-BASED RAINFALL of TS WASHI
Estimated RR in CDO
Dec 16, 2011 - 11 P.M. LST
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Estimated RR in CDO river basin:~ 20 – 25 mm/hr
Observed max. hourly RR (Talakag station) =
60.6 mm (11PM-12MN)
FINDINGS:
1. PAGASA was able to forecast accurately the track of TS Washi,
however rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP)
models were underestimated.
eTRaP
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
RIMES
2. Heavy rainfall of short duration in the upstream of the Cagayan de Oro
and neighbouring river basins
256.0
291.0
475.0
192.0
197.0
223.0
CDO CityRainfall distribution
in CDO river basin
181.0
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
230.5
475.0
CDO river and its 6 tributaries drains to CDO City
Source: DENR-MGB
At Talakag station: Max 1-hr RR = 60.6 mm (11PM – 12MN)
Max 3-hr RR = 112. 0 mm (10PM – 1AM)
Max 6-hr RR = 199.0 mm (7PM – 1AM)
3. Attendant landslides/flash floods/flooding
In CDO river basin, flash
flood occurred at the Libona
mini-hydro plant along the
Bubunawan river.
In Iligan City, flashflood
occurred due to the damming
effect of logs and debris at
Mandulog 1 bridge.
FINDINGS:
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Mandulog 1 bridge.
Bubunawan Power Plant Before (left)
and after (right) the flash flood
Impounding area
Impounding area
Source: OCD-PAF
Landslide upstream
of CDO basin
Source: OCD-PAF
Logs and other debris were swept
by flood waters that washed out
Mandulog bridge in Iligan City.
Mandulogbridge
4. Time of occurrence of tide at Macajalar port in CDO City
FINDINGS:
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
The time of occurrence of tide started at 12MN, Dec 16 and
peaked at 2AM, Dec 17. The peak tide level was 1.24 m.
5. Encroachment in sandbars along river banks:
Communities live in 2 islets (sandbar):
Isla de Oro and Isla Verde
In 2009, the local government applied
for a permit to develop the areas into
residential and commercial as part of
the City’s industrialized area. The
DENR declined the request and
ordered the immediate relocation of
all residents in the 2 islets.
FINDINGS:
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
all residents in the 2 islets.
Barangay
Macasandig,
CDO City before
(left) and after
(right) the
disaster.
FINDINGS:
6. Logging activities
7. Rampant development
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Logs & uprooted trees at the river
mouth in Iligan City
Orchids Subdivision at the estuary
of Mandulog river, Iligan City
8. Complacency of the local government units (LGUs) and
community
FINDINGS:
� 38 TC from 1948-2011 (64 years)
� 7 TC from 1996-2011 (16years)
TCs that affected Mindanao
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Tropical Cyclone Occurrence
in the Philippines: 1948-2010
Comparison of Jan 2009 & Dec 2011 Flood events in CDO river basin
Facts 03 Jan 2009 16 Dec 2011
Rainfall:
Max 1-day
Sil-ipon, Baungon: 150 mm
PAGASA Lumbia, CDO: 11.8
PAGASA Malaybalay: 0.6
Antecedent rianfall – light -
heavy in Lumbia &
Malaybalay
Capehan, Bukidnon (Del Monte):
475 mm (highest in 20 years)
Lumbia: 181 mm
Malaybalay: 83.9 mm
Butuan: 83.2 mm
Hinatuan: 180.4 mm
Dipolog: 87.5 mm
Talakag: 230.5 mm
Mo. Normal: 113 mm (Lumbia)
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Mo. Normal: 113 mm (Lumbia)
Estimated
Flood
50-year return period
(DENR-MGB)
75-year return period (DPWH-
FCSEC)
Maximum
Flood height
2 meters in Isla de Oro
WL at Mini-hydro (along
Bubunawan river) – 2.6 m
7-9 meters (downstream)
Mini-hydro (along Bubunawan
river) – 2 to 3 m
High tide
(Iligan City
and CDO City)
1:56 AM, 1.15 m 12 MN Dec 16 and peaked at
2:00AM, Dec 17, 1.24 m
Findings Recommendations
Rainfall/ flood
forecasts & warnings
Establishment of early warning systems for flood
and rainfall-induced landslides
Land use issue Update hazard maps using recent flood data,
relocate informal settlers, easement of river banks,
review issuance of land use permits
Sediment control Construction of sabo dams
Complacency of LGUs Conduct/organize disaster preparedness training,
Summary of Findings & Recommendations – TS Washi
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Complacency of LGUs
and residents
Conduct/organize disaster preparedness training,
IEC on hydromet hazards and their impacts,
conduct flood drills
Constricted
waterways
Re-design flood control structures, dredging
Deforestation Strict implementation of forest management laws;
Investigation and filing of charges to illegal loggers
and mining operation
Trends in flooding in PH
1. There is no one description for ‘floods’. Rather there are different
situations such as flash floods, monsoon flooding and wind storms such as
tropical cyclones. The scale of floods in the Philippines is increasing, as is
the number of floods.
35000
40000
45000
50000Total Damage in Million Pesos (PhP)
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
2. Overall, fewer people are being
killed as a direct result of
floods, thanks to improvements in
warning systems and better
preparedness.
- In May 2009, the province of
Zambales was devastated by
flooding due to passage of a storm
Trends in flooding in PH and the response
Surigao de Sur
Cagayan de Oro
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
flooding due to passage of a storm
but no casualties were recorded.
This was mainly attributed to the
community based flood early
warning system (CBFEWS) in place.- On 16 Dec 2011, Surigao del Sur recorded 2 casualties compared to Cagayan de
Oro and Iligan City (more than 1000) due to the passage of TS Washi. In
2005, CBFEWS was established under the UNDP Ready project. People in
the area still remember the lessons during the flood drills conducted. LGUs
immediately convened the local DRRMC in anticipation of storm Washi.
3. While floods resulted in fewer fatalities overall, the number of
people whose lives and livelihoods were affected by the flood
waters has increased.
Trends in flooding in PH
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000Number of Casualties
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
0
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
198
0
198
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
FAMILIES PERSONS
4. The economic and social impact of floods is significant: the
annual cost of the damage caused by disasters can constitute a
significant percentage of developing country GDP.
Without CC
With CC
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Metro Manila’s regional GDP in 2008 was 468 billion PHP (National Statistical Coordination Board). Damage costs range from 3% of GDP (SQ-EX-10) to 24% (A1FI-EX-100).
Climate change costs represent 1% (1-in-10 flood), 6% (1-in-30 flood) & 10% (1-in-100 flood) of GDP.
Source: Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities: A Synthesis Report, 2010, ADB, JICA, WB
Major Disasters and GoP’s Response
Event Government Response
Great Flood in Central Luzon in July 1972
Pilot FFWS in the Pampanga river basin (Grant from GoJ-JICA)
Flood in Oct 1979 due to unprecedented release of water from Angat dam
Flood Forecasting and Warning System for Dam Operation (FFWSDO)
Flash flood in Nov 2004 in Aurora and Quezon provinces
The Four Point Action Plan on Disaster Risk Reduction was issued in Jan 2005.
Flood/Flashflood due to Tropical Public-Private Partnership
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Flood/Flashflood due to Tropical Storm Ketsana in Sep 2009 in Metro Manila & flooding in Pangasinan due to release of water from San Roque dam
Public-Private PartnershipRe-assessment of flood control structuresReview of Existing Dam ProtocolsSigning of the Climate Change Act of 2009 (R.A. 9729)Signing of the Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010 (R.A. 10121)
Floods in 2011 Designation of a Water Czar and creation of the National Water Resources Management Council
Current initiatives & future directions on DRR in the PH
• Enhancement of early warning systems: additional monitoring
stations (National Flood Forecasting, Monitoring & Mitigation Program by the
GoP, remote sensing data application in DRR - ADB/JAXA and ADB/CHARM
Projects
• Hazard, vulnerability and risk mapping: use of Lidar technology,
update of hazard maps (hydromet & geological)
• Improved awareness of natural hazards and their impacts at
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
the local levels, localization of forecasts
•Mainstreaming DRR and climate change adaptation
• Creation of an integrated super body on water resources
management: National Water Resources management Council
(NWRMC)
• Sustained public-private partnerships
Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of
Climate Change Act of 2009 (R.A. 9729) – signed in Oct 2009
“AN ACT MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE INTO GOVERNMENT
POLICY FORMULATIONS, ESTABLISHING THE FRAMEWORK
STRATEGY AND PROGRAM ON CLIMATE CHANGE, CREATING FOR
THIS PURPOSE THE CLIMATE CHANGE COMMISSION, AND FOR
OTHER PURPOSES”
Recent Laws governing DRR in the Philippines
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of
2010 (R.A. 10121) – signed in May 2010
“AN ACT STRENGTHENING THE PHILIPPINE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
AND MANAGEMENT SYSTEM, PROVIDING FOR THE NATIONAL
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK AND
INSTITUTIONALIZING THE NATIONAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND
MANAGEMENT PLAN, APPROPRIATING FUNDS THEREFOR AND FOR
OTHER PURPOSES”
National Water Resources Management Council
(NWRMC)
Restructuring of the water resources sector thru the creation of
the National Water Resources Management Council (NWRMC)
Guiding Principles:
• Good water governance
for water security
• IWRM
• River basin approach
• Updated and accurate
Inter-governmental
Panel
Multi-stakeholder
Water Advisory
Panel
Governing Board: Policy-
making, direction-setting, high
level integration
President as Chairman
Council Members: DPWH, DA,
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
• Updated and accurate
data collection & analysis
• Use of scientific DSS for
water resource
management including
flood modeling &
warning system
• Development of water
resources including
mitigation of water-
related hazards
(including
NGOs, Private
sector, Academe, LGU
s
Executive Management Body:
Day-to-day operations of the
various functions of the Council
Headed by Executive Director
Council Members: DPWH, DA,
DENR, DOE, NEDA, DILG, DOST
For policy recommendation,
planning & collaborative
operations
Economic Regulation
-Independent tariff
regulation for WSS
- Independent tariff
regulation for energy
Activities in the establishment of CBFEWS
5. Seminar on data observation/
retraining
6. Special IEC and flood drill/dry run
1. Consultation
meeting with
Local Government
Units (LGUs)
2. Site survey and
ocular inspection
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
7. Turn over of CBFEWS to LGUs
4. On-site
training of
observers
&volunteers
3. Installation of
monitoring
facilities, flood
signages &
hydrographic surveys
Infrastructure on Early Warning System in the PH
58 Synoptic stations
23 Agromet stations
120 Automatic Weather Stations
6 Upper air stations
3 Doppler radars
(5 under construction)
2 Marine bouys
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
5 telemetered major
river basins
5 telemetered major dams
3 Satellite receivers
Integrated High Power Computing (IHPC) Facility
Lessons learned:
The key to better planning and reconstruction efforts is to
recognize that flooding has become conditional. It depends on
land use conditions, urbanization and climate variability
(extreme events).
Remote sensing technology provides sufficient lead time in
forecasting and analysis of catastrophic events.
South-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Essentially, the involvement of the local government units and
the communities at risk is critical in any flood risk mitigating
measure.
In any disaster of given magnitude, the first line of defense is
still awareness and preparedness of the communities at risk.
Thank you.
The source of man's
unhappiness is his
Free Powerpoint TemplatesSouth-East Asia Flood Risk Reduction Forum20 February 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
PAGASA OCD-NDRRMC
unhappiness is his
ignorance of Nature.
- Paul Henry Thiry d'Holbach