Homeland Security:Emerging Security Needs

Casualty Actuaries in Reinsurance

Special Interest Seminar: Terrorism

September 13, 2004

New York, NY

Asha M. George, DrPH

Threats Division Manager

Homeland Security Institute

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• “The increasing availability of relatively inexpensive cruise missiles and the capability to fabricate and introduce bio-toxins and chemical agents into the US means that rogue nations or transnational actors may be able to threaten our homeland”

- Report of the National Defense Panel, 1997

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Nuclear vs. Biological LethalityCongressional Office of Technology Assessment, 1993

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Caught By Surprise

• World Trade Center• Bombing of the Murrah

Federal Building in Oklahoma

• World Trade Center/Pentagon

• Anthrax

We may not be able to prevent events from occurring.

We can at least keep ourselves from being surprised.

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Prevent Deter Prepare Detect Respond Recover Mitigate

Understand theThreat

Partner withOthers

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Intelligence

• Information collected

• Put together with other information

• Then all of it is analyzed

• End product is what we call intelligence

• In the homeland security context, Info1 is provided by state and local personnel

Analysis [ Collect (Info1+Info2+…InfoX) ]

= Intelligence

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AWARENESS ATTITUDE BEHAVIOR

BELIEF

Awareness vs. Belief:Awareness Drops Out

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Vulnerabilities X Intentions Vulnerabilities X Intentions X Capabilities X Capabilities

= = ThreatThreat

Threat X Vulnerability Threat X Vulnerability X Asset Value X Asset Value

= = RiskRisk

Simple Equations to Characterize

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Threat Continues to Change

• The enemy continues to find ways to get through our defenses and exploit our vulnerabilities.

• Just as disease knows no borders, neither do crime, weather, and any number of other things that produce insecurity and terrorism.

• Society is continuing to become more connected.

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• The single biggest threat to man’s continued dominance on the planet is the virus.”

- Joshua Lederberg, PhD, Nobel laureate

Electron micrograph of

Ebola virus

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Smallpox

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What We Should Expect• Changes in terrorist tactics, methods and

operational activities occur naturally – if only because vulnerabilities, risks, technological abilities, etc., of targets are also changing

• Lack of wherewithal regarding and interest in conventional operations – if only because they require huge resources and will certainly result in military response and other types of retaliation

• Unexpected, innovative, non-traditional and broadly applicable methods

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Characteristics• Small-scale high-impact operations

• As with everything else in society, terrorism drives towards greater efficiency and effectiveness, expending the least amount of resources to achieve the largest results

• Unequal action taken to rectify societal inequality? Reaction to disproportionate power by using a weapon that wields disproportionate power itself?

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Top Priority for Terrorism

• Attack Fear + Chaos Civil Unrest Societal Breakdown

• How? By:– Undermining the strengths of a target– Exploiting the weaknesses of a target– Maximizing their own advantage– Attaining control– Gaining freedom to take any action they please

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Effect Multipliers• M1: Ability to disrupt electronic infrastructure

• M2: Ability to generate fear

• M3: Ability to utilize psychological operations

• M4: Ability to prevent action, response, retaliation, etc.

• M5: Ability to decrease initiative

• M6: Ability to introduce weapons of mass destruction and/or related materials

• M7: Ability to fight in environments that degrade capacity for military response and retaliation

• MX: Ability to ______

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Vulnerabilities• Infinite array of

vulnerabilities for society – Finite array of vulnerabilities for an organization

• Weakness in defense

• Weakness in preparedness

• Highly mobile population

• Enjoyment of congregation

• Population density and lack thereof

• Unprotected agricultural production areas

• Federal (as opposed to National) intelligence apparatus

• Lack of specific guidance to individuals

• Porous borders

• Inadequate transportation safety

• Lack of coordinated activities and databases

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Vulnerabilities (continued)• Disorganized

infrastructure elements

• Squishy cyberspace

• Inability to communicate and work with other countries

• Science, tools and technology not matched against threats, risks and vulnerabilities

• Disarray of public health and other infrastructures

• Inability to address the truly difficult tasks (e.g. Select Agent Program)

• Holes in existing law

• Inability or lack of willingness to share information

• Split and heavily occupied military forces

• Increasing deficit

• Etc.

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Impact of a Terrorist Attack

Resources + Unexpected Methods +

(Understanding + Exploitation)Vulnerabilities + Effect (M1+M2+M3+M4+M5+M6+M7 +…MX) =

Impact

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Identification of Atypical Trends

• Ongoing observational data

• Feed into successively broader surveillance and analysis systems

• Information must be fed back as soon as possible

• Surveillance needs to be more than routine

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Basic Model for Trend Research

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US Homeland Security Advisory System

LOWLow Risk of Terrorist Attacks

GUARDEDGeneral Risk of Terrorist Attacks

ELEVATEDSignificant Risk of Terrorist Attacks

HIGHHigh Risk of Terrorist Attacks

SEVERESevere Risk of Terrorist Attacks

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View of Homeland Security

PUBLIC SAFETY

NATIONAL SECURITY

HOMELAND SECURITY

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View of Homeland Defense

CONSEQUENCE MANAGEMENT

SUPPORT

DEFENSE & DETERRENCE

HOMELAND DEFENSE

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International Cooperation

NationalSecurity

HomelandSecurity

CombatingTerrorism

CombatingWMD

U.S.

INTERNATIONAL

AGENDA

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Space

• Between stimulus and response, there is space.

• In that space is power to choose our response.

• In our response lies our growth and our freedom.

- Stephen Covey

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