Undiscovered Resources Largest Undiscovered Field

MFS Prob. Oil (MMBO)

(0-1) F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean

Oil Fields 1 1,028 2,781 5,803 3,023 236 674 1,544 755 4 13 33 15 120 302 645 332

Gas Fields 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA

Total 1.00 1,028 2,781 5,803 3,023 236 674 1,544 755 4 13 33 15

1.00

Hollin-Napo, Assessment Unit 60410101Assessment Results Summary

[MMBO, million barrels of oil. BCFG, billion cubic feet of gas. MMBNGL, million barrels of natural gas liquids. MFS, minimum field size assessed (MMBO or BCFG). Prob., probability (including both geologic and accessibility probabilities) of at least one field equal to or greater than the MFS. Results shown are fully risked estimates. For gas fields, all liquids are included under the NGL (natural gas liquids) category. F95 represents a 95 percent chance of at least the amount tabulated. Other fractiles are defined similarly. Fractiles are additive under the assumption of perfect

positive correlation. Shading indicates not applicable]

Field Type Gas (BCFG) NGL (MMBNGL) (MMBO or BCFG)

60410101Hollin-Napo

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 7,000.00 MMBOEntire range is from 314.82 to 9,975.94 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 6.68

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 3,023.37Median 2,780.59Mode ---Standard Deviation 1,493.85Variance 2,231,593.88Skewness 0.63Kurtosis 2.77Coefficient of Variability 0.49Range Minimum 314.82Range Maximum 9,975.94Range Width 9,661.12Mean Standard Error 6.68

Frequency Chart

MMBO

.000

.005

.010

.015

.020

0

253.5

507

760.5

1014

0.00 1,750.00 3,500.00 5,250.00 7,000.00

50,000 Trials 381 Outliers

Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields

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Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBO100% 314.82

95% 1,027.7090% 1,265.3685% 1,461.1780% 1,641.9975% 1,821.8970% 2,002.8965% 2,188.1360% 2,369.8655% 2,567.5650% 2,780.5945% 2,994.4740% 3,219.8835% 3,465.2930% 3,730.5425% 4,026.1520% 4,351.5415% 4,723.9510% 5,185.04

5% 5,803.470% 9,975.94

End of Forecast

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60410101Hollin-Napo

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 2,000.00 BCFGEntire range is from 62.56 to 3,192.74 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 1.84

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 755.48Median 673.56Mode ---Standard Deviation 412.09Variance 169,820.00Skewness 0.92Kurtosis 3.69Coefficient of Variability 0.55Range Minimum 62.56Range Maximum 3,192.74Range Width 3,130.18Mean Standard Error 1.84

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.006

.012

.017

.023

0

289.5

579

868.5

1158

0.00 500.00 1,000.00 1,500.00 2,000.00

50,000 Trials 402 Outliers

Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields

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Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 62.56

95% 235.5790% 296.3785% 344.5580% 389.9175% 434.7670% 480.9065% 527.9560% 574.5155% 623.4750% 673.5645% 729.1140% 785.5135% 847.3430% 917.3225% 998.9720% 1,090.6115% 1,199.7810% 1,339.18

5% 1,543.950% 3,192.74

End of Forecast

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60410101Hollin-Napo

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 40.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 1.07 to 70.62 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.04

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 15.12Median 13.14Mode ---Standard Deviation 8.99Variance 80.85Skewness 1.17Kurtosis 4.62Coefficient of Variability 0.59Range Minimum 1.07Range Maximum 70.62Range Width 69.55Mean Standard Error 0.04

Frequency Chart

MMBNGL

.000

.006

.011

.017

.022

0

279.7

559.5

839.2

1119

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00

50,000 Trials 838 Outliers

Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields

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60410101Hollin-Napo

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBNGL100% 1.07

95% 4.3590% 5.5485% 6.5280% 7.4575% 8.3770% 9.2765% 10.1960% 11.1155% 12.1150% 13.1445% 14.2440% 15.4335% 16.7030% 18.2025% 19.8820% 21.8115% 24.2810% 27.59

5% 32.760% 70.62

End of Forecast

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60410101Hollin-Napo

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Oil Field

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 800.00 MMBOEntire range is from 27.10 to 749.96 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.71

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 332.17Median 302.23Mode ---Standard Deviation 158.77Variance 25,208.10Skewness 0.64Kurtosis 2.65Coefficient of Variability 0.48Range Minimum 27.10Range Maximum 749.96Range Width 722.86Mean Standard Error 0.71

Frequency Chart

MMBO

.000

.006

.012

.018

.024

0

294

588

882

1176

0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00

50,000 Trials 0 Outliers

Forecast: Largest Oil Field

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60410101Hollin-Napo

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Oil Field (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBO100% 27.10

95% 120.3490% 148.2985% 169.4480% 189.7575% 208.3170% 226.9565% 244.9860% 262.7255% 281.8850% 302.2345% 323.9840% 347.4535% 373.3830% 401.0425% 433.2820% 471.1215% 515.4410% 572.74

5% 645.380% 749.96

End of Forecast

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60410101Hollin-Napo

Monte Carlo Results

Assumptions

Assumption: Number of Oil Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 30Likeliest 60Maximum 300

Selected range is from 30 to 300Mean value in simulation was 130

Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields

Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersMean 23.53 24.53Standard Deviation 65.11 65.11

Selected range is from 0.00 to 749.00 1.00 to 750.00Mean value in simulation was 22.28 23.28

30 98 165 233 300

Number of Oil Fields

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60410101Hollin-Napo

Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields (cont'd)

Assumption: GOR in Oil Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 125.00Likeliest 250.00Maximum 375.00

Selected range is from 125.00 to 375.00Mean value in simulation was 249.84

0.10 164.13 328.17 492.20 656.24

Sizes of Oil Fields

125.00 187.50 250.00 312.50 375.00

GOR in Oil Fields

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Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: LGR in Oil Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 10.00Likeliest 20.00Maximum 30.00

Selected range is from 10.00 to 30.00Mean value in simulation was 20.01

End of Assumptions

Simulation started on 2/24/99 at 16:07:34Simulation stopped on 2/24/99 at 17:15:14

10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00

LGR in Oil Fields

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