hoa phong co., ltd ranked first in vietnam fertilizer · pdf filefertilizer prices changed in...

Making sense of Vietnam market

1

WHICH WERE OUTSTANDING OVER

THE WEEK?

Fertilizer prices changed in reverse

directions

Import fertilizer prices continued to

increase

Hoa Phong Co., Ltd ranked first in

fertilizer import value in September

and the first 9 months of 2011

Potash imports in the import period

(Oct. 11-27) increased by 7 times from

the previous import period

Ammonia price soared on concern

over tight supply

China officially imposed high urea

import tariff of 110% from November

1, 2011

World urea market is expected to

recover thanks to increased demand in

the coming time.

Weekly Report

Vietnam Fertilizer

Market

(Week 01/11-06/11/2011)

ANALYSTS

Nguyen Trang Nhung

Dao Thi Dung Tel: 84 4 7300 4550 Email: [email protected] ____________________________________

Vietnam Market Analysis and Forecast Joint

Stock Company - AgroMonitor

5th

Floor, No. 97, Hao Nam Str., O Cho Dua Ward, Dong Da Dist., Hanoi

Tel: 84 4 6273 3596 / Mobile: 0943 411 411

Email: [email protected] Website: www.agromonitor.vn

AgroMonitor would like to inform valuable

customers

- DAILY FERTILIZER NEWS

See appendix

mailto:[email protected]

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2

DOMESTIC MARKET

_______________________________________________________________________

Production

According to the report on the socio-economic situation in October of the General

Statistics Office, agriculture production in the month mainly focused on

harvesting tenth-month rice in Northern localities; harvesting summer-fall rice

nationwide; and planting tenth-month rice in Southern localities.

Rain and heavy flood happening continuously during the month had great

influence on agriculture production, especially in provinces like Quang Ninh,

Nghe An, Ha Tinh, Quang Binh, Binh Thuan, Lam Dong, An Giang, Dong Thap

and Kien Giang. According to initial estimate, flood inundated nearly 42 thousand

ha rice and vegetable in which nearly 20 thousand ha was completely lost. In the

key rice cultivated area in the Mekong River Delta, about 15 thousand ha rice and

vegetable was flooded (Dong Thap: over 2 thousand ha; An Giang: over 5

thousand ha) in which over 8 thousand ha was completely lost.

However, as per the information from the National Center for Hydro-

meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) on November 1: in the coming five days,

the water level at the upper course of Cuu Long River, the inner field of Dong

Thap Muoi and Long Xuyen Quadrangular would continue to recede to below

grade-two warning, ending the prolonging flood recently. Accordingly, farmers

will urgently start to plant 2011/2012 winter-spring rice.

Price movement in domestic market

Rain has decreased in the Mekong River provinces and flood has also receded.

Farmers in some localities have started sowing 2011-2012 winter-spring rice.

However, as scheduled, the end of the November and the beginning of December

is the main sowing time for 2011-2012 crop. Therefore, the demand for fertilizers

has started to rise, though not strong; fertilizer prices over the week changed in

reverse directions in some localities.


3

Apart from the influence of demand, at present, fertilizer prices are also driven by

the high USD/VND exchange rate. Within October, the State Bank revised

USD/VND exchange rate for 14 times and currently it is sustained at VND

20,803/USD. Moreover, fertilizer prices also follow the trend of the world

fertilizer market. Although the world fertilizer market is quite bearish, prices

remain quite high.

According to information collected from some first-class agencies under market

information system of Agromonitor in Tra Vinh, price of Phu My urea and

Chinese urea decreased by VND 10,000/package to VND 550,000/package and

VND 510,000/package, respectively. Meanwhile, NPK price was VND

710,000/package; DAP: VND 770,000/package, unchanged from the previous

week.

In Hanoi, import urea price ranged around VND 11,500-11,600/kg; in Da Nang,

import urea price stayed at lower level of about VND 11,000-11,200/kg.

Meanwhile, in some Southern markets like Can Tho and Ho Chi Minh City,

import urea price was about VND 12,000/kg.

Over the week, price of Phu My urea in An Giang was VND 11,500/kg, down

VND 200/kg from the previous week. In Lam Dong, price of Phu My urea at the

end of the October was VND 11,900/kg.

Movement of urea price by week in some localities, VND/kg

Source: Agrodata

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

W3

3

W3

5

W3

7

W3

9

W4

1

W4

3

W4

5

W4

7

W4

9

W5

1

W5

3

W2

W4

W7

W9

W1

1

W1

3

W1

5

W1

7

W1

9

W2

1

W2

3

W2

5

W2

7

W2

9

W3

1

W3

3

W3

5

W3

7

W3

9

W4

1

W4

3

Ha Noi Da Nang

Can Tho An Giang


4

Meanwhile, price of Philippine continued to decrease in some Northern localities.

Specifically, in Hanoi, it dropped VND 150/kg to VND 15,500/kg. Meanwhile, in

Da Nang, it rallied to VND 15,300/kg, up VND 250/kg after falling nearly VND

400/kg in the previous week.

In Southern provinces, DAP price declined slightly from a week earlier. Price of

Philippine DAP fell about VND 200-250/kg to about VND 15,500-15,800/kg.

Meanwhile, price of brown Chinese DAP in Dong Nai was stable at VND

14,800/kg for three consecutive weeks. In contrast, brown Chinese DAP in An

Giang climbed as much as VND 400/kg from a week earlier to VND 15,400/kg,

respectively.

Movement of DAP price in some localities by week, VND/kg

Source: Agrodata

Fertilizer quote from Vinacam JSC on November 2:: Price of Chinese prilled

urea rebounded to VND 10,400/kg, up VND 600/kg after decreasing up to VND

900/kg on October 31 and November 1; meanwhile, price of Chinese granular

urea continued to decrease by VND 50/kg after declining by VND 100/kg in two

weeks earlier to VND 10,850/kg.

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

17000

W3

3

W3

6

W3

9

W4

2

W4

5

W4

8

W5

1

W1

W4

W8

W1

1

W1

4

W1

7

W2

0

W2

3

W2

6

W2

9

W3

2

W3

5

W3

8

W4

1

W4

4

2010 2011

Ha Noi Da Nang

Can Tho An Giang


5

Item Chines

e

prilled

urea

Chinese

granula

r urea

Prille

d

Urea

C.I.S

Philippin

e NPK

Israel

white

potash

Brown

Chines

e DAP

Philippin

e DAP

Dinh

Vu

DAP

2/11 10.400 10.850 10.60

0

11.400 12.30

0

14.600 17.500 13.60

0

31/1

0

+600 -50 -200 +100 0 0 0 0

Inter-bank exchange rate was temporarily stable after 14 revisions in

October

As of November 3, the State Bank of Vietnam kept the inter-bank exchange

rate for the seventh consecutive days at VND 20,803/USD. In 14 times revising

inter-bank exchange rate (from October 5), exchange rate increased by VND

175/USD, equivalent to nearly 0.85%, only 0.15% lower compared to the

commitment of the governor of the State Bank of Vietnam.

Movement of USD/VND exchange rate by day, September 6 – November

3/2011

Source: The State Bank of Vietnam

18500

19000

19500

20000

20500

21000

8/1

15

/1

22

/1

29

/1

10

/2

17

/2

24

/2

3/3

10

/3

17

/3

24

/3

31

/3

7/4

15

/4

22

/4

29

/4

10

/5

17

/5

25

/5

2/6

10

/6

20

/6

28

/6

6/7

14

/07

25

/07

2/8

10

/8

18

/08

26

/08

7/9

15

/09

23

/09

3/1

0

11

/10

19

/10

27

/10

USD/VND exchange rate


6

Movement of import price

Although import urea price changed in reverse directions at border gates, prices

basically increased from the previous import period.

In this import period, urea continued to be most imported. Although urea import

price changed in reverse directions, it still rose compared to the previous import

period, specifically:

In this import period, regarding CFR form of import, urea was mainly imported

from Indonesia via Khanh Hoi and Tan Thuan ports at the price of US$ 545/ton

(CFR), equal to the price in the previous import period.

Movement of urea import price at some ports and border gates in the import

period (October 11-27) compared to the previous import period, US$/ton

Source: AgroMonitor, adapted from General Department of Vietnam Customs

In this import period, urea was most imported via Mong Cai Border Gate with

56,179 tons, accounting for 61.4% in total urea imports. Price of urea imported

from China via the border gate decreased slightly to US$ 450/ton (DAF), down

US$ 7/ton from the previous import period. Only price of urea imported via this

border gate saw a decrease in this import period.

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

Cat Lai Port

(Ho Chi Minh

City), CFR

Khanh Hoi

Port (Ho Chi

Minh City)

CFR

Tan Thuan Port

(Ho Chi Minh

City) CFR

Bat Sat Border

Gate (Lao Cai)

DAF

Mong Cai

Border Gate

(Quang Ninh)

DAF

Ta Lung

Border Gate

(Cao Bang)

DAF

Tra Linh

Border Gate

(Cao Bang)

DAF

Average import price (Oct. 11-27) Average import price (Sep. 27 - Oct. 13)


7

At other border gates, urea import volume imported via Bat Sat Border Gate

ranked second (price: up US$ 3/ton0; at Ta Lung Border Gate: urea price was up

US$ 23/ton; While at Tra Linh Border Gate, urea price climbed up to US$ 43/ton

(DAF) from the previous import period.

Potash was the second most imported type of fertilizer in this import period. It is

noticeable that the volume potash imported via the forms of EXW (Ex Works) and

CFR was quite high.

In this import period, the volume of potash imported via CFR form accounted for

61.1% of the total import volume; meanwhile, the volume of potash imported via

CIF from accounted for nearly 70% in the previous import period. In this import

period, potash was mainly imported from Belarus with the average import price of

US$ 512/ton (CFR) at Ben Nghe Port; US$ 520/ton (CFR) at Quy Nhon Port and

Tan Thuan Port. Price of potash imported from Taiwan was US$ 625/ton (CIF)

and US$ 249/ton (CFR).

Import potash price at some ports and border gates in the import period

(October 11-27)


512 520 520 538 535

249

510

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ben Nghe Port

(Ho Chi Minh

City)

Quy Nhon Port

(Binh Dinh)

Tan Thuan Port

(Ho Chi Minh

City)

Phu My Port

(Vung Tau)

EXW

Phu My Port

(Vung

Tau), CIF

Go Dau Port

(Phuoc Thai -

Dong Nai),CFR

Quy Nhon Port

(Binh Dinh)

CFR

Belarus, CFR Canada Taiwan Russia


8

Canada was the second biggest market exporting potash to Vietnam in this import

period. It is noticeable that the volume of potash imported under EXW form was

quite high with 23,175 tons with the average import price of US$ 538/ton at Phu

My Port while there was no cargo imported via this form in the previous import

period. Besides, the average price of potash imported from Canada via this port

was US$ 535/ton (CIF), up slightly US$ 3/ton from the previous import period.

TRADE

According to preliminary data from the General Statistics Office, fertilizer

imports of Vietnam in October 2011 were estimated at 470 thousand tons, worth

US$ 200 million, up 0.48% in volume, but down 3% in value from the previous

month. Accumulated fertilizer imports in the first 10 months of the year reached

3.47 million tons, worth US$ 1.43 billion, up 37.4% in volume and 69.9% in

value from the same period in 2010.

Meanwhile, according to preliminary data from the General Department of

Vietnam Customs, fertilizer imports in the period (October 11-27) reached

245,191 tons, worth US$ 113.25 million, up slightly 3.6% in volume and 11.54%

in value from the previous import period (September 27 – October 13, 2011).

In this import period, urea imports still ranked first although urea import volume

was 91,497 tons, worth US$ 41.41 million, down slightly 8.21% in volume and

4.56% in volume from the previous period.

It is noticeable that potash imports in this period were quite high, up 7 times from

the previous import period and climbed to the second position from the 5 position,

at the same time, pushed SA to the third position. In this period, DAP imports

decreased more sharply than NPK; therefore, the two types exchanged their

positions when NPK ranked 4 while DAP ranked 5th.


9

Fertilizer import structure by type in the import period (Oct. 11-27) (%)

Import period (Oct. 11-27)

Import period (Sep. 27-13)


In this import period, Vietnam imported fertilizers from 20 markets, up 3 markets

from the previous import period. China remained the key market exporting

fertilizers to Vietnam, accounting for 53.6% in the total fertilizer import volume

and 49.4% in value with 131,366 tons, worth US$ 55.98 million, down sharply

from 60% in volume and 58.6% in value from the previous import period.

Especially, fertilizer imports from Belarus ranked second after China with 33

thousand tons, worth US$ 417.03 million although Vietnam did not import any

cargo of fertilizer from this market.

Fertilizer imports from Canada in this import period also climbed 3.7 times in

both volume and value from the previous import period; meanwhile, fertilizer

imports from the Philippines declined by nearly 40%. Therefore, Canada climbed

to the third position from the fifth position in the previous import period, while

the Philippine was pushed to the fourth position from the second position in the

previous import period.

Urea

37.32%

Potash

32.76%

SA

11.26%

NPK

8.36%

DAP

6.30%

Ammoni

um

Nitrate

2.15%Others

1.03%

MAP

0.44%

Ammoni

a

Chloride

0.28%

Leaf

fertilizer

0.06% MKP

0.04%

Urea

42.12%

Potash

4.98%

SA

26.72%

NPK

10.19%

DAP

12.99%

Ammoniu

m Nitrate

1.37%

Others

0.22%MAP

1.30%

Ammonia

Chloride

0.10%

Leaf

fertilizer

0.01% MKP

0.01%


10

Fertilizer import structure by market in the import period (Oct. 11-27) (%)


According to unofficial information, Vietnam has re-exported 105,000 tons of

urea out of totally 160,000 tons imported in September. The volume of fertilizer

was mainly imported from China because the import price from this market was

much lower compared to many other markets.

ENTERPRISE MOVEMENT

In September, there were total 166 fertilizer importers with the total import value

of US$ 206.2 million, up 39.5% from the previous month. Hoa Phong Co., Ltd

still ranked second for two consecutive months with the import volume of US$

17.85 million, up 34.5% from the previous month. Especially, Techno -

Agricultural Supplying JSC with the import volume of US$ 13.85 million and

climbed to the second position although it did not import fertilizers in the

previous month. Besides, there were also some noticeable events in the month:

Nguyen Phan Co., Ltd climbed to the 5th

position from the 20th position in

China

49.43%

Belarus

15.03%

Canada

13.84%

Philippines

7.55%

Indonesia

5.35%

Russian

Federation

4.96%

Taiwan

1.58%Netherlands

0.22%

Germany

0.47%

Lithuania

0.45%

Switzerland

0.39%

Malaysia

0.37%

Japan

0.06% Belgium

0.07%

Thailand

0.07%

Israel

0.09%

India

0.02% Korea (Republic)

0.01%

United States of America

0.02%

United Kingdom

0.04%


11

August; Baconco Co., Ltd ranked 10th in September instead of 70

th in August.

Meanwhile, Vinacam JSC fell to 21st position from the second position in August.

In the first 9 months of 2011, Hoa Phong Co., Ltd continued to rank first in

fertilizer import value with over US$ 96.59 million, accounting for 7.85% in total

fertilizer import value. Ha Anh Import-Export JSC and Japan - Vietnam Fertilizer

Company occupied the second and the third positions with the proportion of over

6%.

Top 15 fertilizer imports in September and the first 9 months of 2011, US$

million

Top 15 enterprises in Sept.

Top 15 enterprises in the first 9

months of 2011


17.85

13.85

12.76

11.27

8.92

8.67

8.53

8.02

7.67

6.67

6.66

5.81

5.46

4.75

4.42

- 10.00 20.00

Hoa Phong Co., Ltd

Techno-Agricultural Supplying JSC

Binh Dien Fertilizer JSC

Japan Vietnam Fertilizer Co.

Nguyen Phan Co.,Ltd

Ha Anh Import-Export JSC

Dong Nai Agricultural Material JSC

Agriculture Products and Materials JSC

Long Hai Investment Group JSC

Baconco Co., Ltd

Nghia Anh General Trading Co., Ltd

Mai Khoi Trading Co., Ltd

Nguyen Ngoc Private Enterprise

Phuc Loc Transport and Trading Co., Ltd

Pertrovietnam Fertilizer And Chemicals Corp.

96.60

77.65

74.03

71.95

67.14

46.50

45.85

40.92

39.80

39.66

37.56

29.77

28.23

26.84

23.74

0 50 100 150

Hoa Phong Co., Ltd

Ha Anh Import-Export JSC

Japan Vietnam Fertilizer Co.

Agriculture Products and …

Vi Na Cam JSC

Binh Dien Fertilizer JSC

Viet Hoa Nong Co., Ltd

Thien Thanh Loc …

Techno-Agricultural …

Pertrovietnam Fertilizer …

Long Hai Investment …

Southern Fertilizer JSC

Nguyen Ngoc Private …

Baconco Co., Ltd

Nguyen Phan Co.,Ltd


12

INTERNATIONAL MARKET

____________________________________________________________________

World urea market remained quite bearish. Price of urea ranged around US$

500/ton. Although urea market has focused on the results of Pakistan’s tender

to import 700,000 tons urea ended on Oct. 28, there has not been any

information about prices. World urea market is likely to remain quiet in the

coming week when demand for fertilizer in the Southeast Asia remains low

because some key agricultural-producing regions in Vietnam, Thailand and the

Philippines are being affected by flood. However, the market is still expected to

be warmer because the new crop is coming close; and the demand will be

stronger, driving up fertilizer price. Moreover, from Nov. 1, 2011, China started

to impose high urea export tariff of 110%, which is also a factor affecting

prices.

At New Orleans port in the U.S., price of urea jumps US$ 15/ton with shipment

by quarter I, 2012 to US$ 551/ton (FOB), up sharply from US$ 520-524/ton

(FOB).

In Baltic region, urea was priced US$ 488/ton (FOB); Russia US$ 485/ton (FOB).

In the Middle East, price of urea exported to East Africa was US$ 510-511/ton

(FOB) at the end of the previous week.

India is currently opening a tender to import 1.7 million tons urea, but the

influence of the tender is unexpected. It is likely that tender will be concentrated

on opening at the beginning of November with insignificant difference in price

compared to the previous tenders. At the end of the previous week, Malaysia

purchased 20,000 tons of urea at the price of US$ 490/ton, FOB; Thailand has

started to resume transactions with low quantity although the country has not got

rid of flood.

In the Black Sea region, at the end of the session on Nov. 1, 2011, bid price of

urea inched up US$ 5/ton to US$ 490/ton (FOB); whereas, offered price of urea

inched lowered US$ 5/ton to US$ 495/ton (FOB) compared to the previous week.


13

Bid price and offered price of urea in the Black Sea region by day, US$/ton,

FOB

Source: adapted by Agromonitor

DAP price in the world market changed unevenly.

Local DAP price in China remained very high. However, the volume of DAP

imported was very insignificant. There has not been official information that DAP

was imported insignificantly on lower local demand or too high input cost caused

by the depreciation of Rupee.

In Nola, DAP started to inch up in the sessions at the end of October and the

beginning of November after staying stable for 10 previous sessions. Bid price of

DAP rallied US$ 5/ton to US$ 628/ton (FOB). Offered price of DAP only jumped

US$ 3/ton to US$ 637/ton (FOB).

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

7/6

/10

7/2

7/1

0

8/1

7/1

0

9/7

/10

9/2

8/1

0

10

/19

/10

11

/9/1

0

11

/30

/10

12

/21

/10

1/1

1/1

1

2/1

/11

2/2

2/1

1

3/1

5/1

1

4/5

/11

4/2

6/1

1

5/1

7/1

1

6/7

/11

6/2

8/1

1

7/1

9/1

1

8/9

/11

8/3

0/1

1

9/2

0/1

1

10

/11

/11

11

/1/1

1

Bid price Offered price


14

Bid price and offered price of DAP in Nola by day, US$/ton (FOB)


Price of Ammonia suddenly surged on concern over tighter supply

Ammonia market is facing concern that the supply will be tightened severely in

the first half of November. However, the situation may be improved in the second

half of the month because increased ammonia production of Ukraine is expected

to be able to curb the escalation in price of the commodity.

In Tampa, after rising by up to US$ 70/ton in the session at the end of September,

bid price of Ammonia suddenly dropped up to US$ 48/ton in one session later to

just US$ 602/ton, CFR. However, the price was only sustained for two sessions

and rebounded to US$ 640/ton in the last session of the first week of Oct. The

price of US$ 640/ton, CFR was kept for 11 successive sessions. However, bid

price of Ammonia have suddenly rallied again in three recent sessions when

climbing up to US$ 60/ton to US$ 700/ton, CFR.

Offered price of ammonia was revised up US$ 50/ton to US$ 710/ton, CFR at the

end of Nov. 1, 2011. Therefore, price of Ammonia increased by about 7.7-8.9%

compared to the average price in October.

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

7/6

/10

7/2

7/1

0

8/1

7/1

0

9/7

/10

9/2

8/1

0

10

/19

/10

11

/9/1

0

11

/30

/10

12

/21

/10

1/1

1/1

1

2/1

/11

2/2

2/1

1

3/1

5/1

1

4/5

/11

4/2

6/1

1

5/1

7/1

1

6/7

/11

6/2

8/1

1

7/1

9/1

1

8/9

/11

8/3

0/1

1

9/2

0/1

1

10

/11

/11

11

/1/1

1

Bid price Offered price


15

Meanwhile, price of UAN fluctuated consecutively among transactions but the

range was narrow at about US$ 5-6/ton. Bid price and offered price of UAN in

Nola were US$ 375/ton and US$ 386/ton, FOB.

Bid price and offered price of Ammonia and UAN in the world market,

US$/ton


World potash market changed in reverse directions depending on each market.

Demand for potash in the world market remains quite low. It is likely that the

trend in world potash market will be clear after the meeting of IFA hold in Asia-

Pacific area from Nov. 2 to Nov. 4.

Price of MOP (standard) at Chinese ports is CNY 3,300-3,500/ton (or US$ 490-

520/ton, FOB)

Flood in the Central America delayed the demand for fertilizer for 2-3 weeks;

price of potash dropped from US$ 590-600/st (FOB) to US$ 560-565/st FOB (1 st

= 907 kg)

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

7/6

/10

7/2

7/1

0

8/1

7/1

0

9/7

/10

9/2

8/1

0

10

/19

/10

11

/9/1

0

11

/30

/10

12

/21

/10

1/1

1/1

1

2/1

/11

2/2

2/1

1

3/1

5/1

1

4/5

/11

4/2

6/1

1

5/1

7/1

1

6/7

/11

6/2

8/1

1

7/1

9/1

1

8/9

/11

8/3

0/1

1

9/2

0/1

1

10

/11

/11

11

/1/1

1

Ammonia bid priceo UAN bid price

Ammonia offered price UAN offered price


16

Price of potash in Brazil is currently US$ 550-570/ton (CIF), up US$ 5/ton;

Europe 363-380 Euro/ton (CIF), up 3/ton; Thailand US$ 510-535/ton (CIF); India

US$ 470-490/ton (CIF), unchanged compared to mid October 2011.

China

_______________________________________________________________________

Local market in China

Local urea market in China temporarily stayed still after dropping consecutively

in the first days of the week. Local urea market is unlikely to recover, the demand

remains quite low; and the volume of urea in bonded warehouses of China

remains relatively high. The supply also does not put pressure on the market when

some plants continue to operate moderately with the fact that fuel supply in winter

is becoming tighter. Some other plants are interrupted for maintenance.

In Shandong, after declining consecutively at the beginning of the week, price of

urea became gradually stable at the end of the week. However, shipment to the

North East and shipment of local enterprises with transactions in Hong Kong are

challenging. Urea stocks of plants in the region remain high. On Nov. 2, 2011,

some contracts exporting prilled urea from Shandong have factory price of about

CNY 1,940 – 1,960/ton. Some bigger urea contracts have factory price of CNY

1,900 – 1,920/ton. Accordingly, wholesale price of urea in Shandong remained

quite stable at CNY 2,050/ton in the first days of November.

In Sichuan, factory price of urea at plants on Nov. 2, 2011 ranged around CNY

2,200 – 2,250/ton. Production in these plants in the region remained tight on low

fuel supply.

In Guangdong and Guangxi, the market is likely to be better. Wholesale price of

urea via official trade on Nov. 2 was CNY 2,150 – 2,300/ton, up about CNY

30/ton from the end of October. Spot price of urea at the border based on the

official trade ranged around CNY 2,200 – 2,310/ton.


17

Urea price by week in some markets in China, CNY/ton


Local potash price in China was on the decrease. In the North East, price of

potassium chloride (white) was CNY 3,300/ton.

Local Diammonium market in China was quite bearish in the previous week;

production did not remain high but stocks were high, so the price inched lower.

Factory price of diammonium 64% was prevalent at CNY 2,850-2,900/ton, but it

was sold at CNY 3,100/ton in the market.

Export market

The most typical event over the week was that China officially imposed high urea

import tariff of 110% from Nov. 1, 2011. This high export tariff lowered urea

exports. Accordingly, export price of urea of China also declined; prilled urea was

exported at US$ 480-510/ton, FOB.

Fertilizer export market of China in the first three quarters of 2011 waited in front

for the export tariff policy imposed on types of fertilizer such as urea, NPK, DAP,

MAP, so total fertilizer exports of China witnessed a sharp rise with 12,240,000

tons fertilizers exported, up 18.4% compared to the same period of 2010.

However, to exports of urea alone, total urea export volume for the first 3 quarters

1500

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18

of 2011 decreased by up to 48.1% to only 1,910,000 tons. Meanwhile, urea

production of China in the first 3 quarters of 2011 experienced a quite good

growth. To some extent, urea stocks of China will remain quite high, meeting

both the local demand and the demand of export in the high export tariff season.

However, in another aspect, the volume of urea for exports is unlikely to be

boosted in accordance to the theory on supply-demand balance when many flows

of information have shown that Chinese Government will likely impose urea

export policy in 2012 more strictly. Chinese Government made this suggestion to

ensure that in quarter IV, 2011 and even 2012 spring crop, China will have

enough fertilizer volume to meet the market demand, targeting to stabilize

fertilizer price in the local market and reduce fertilizer imports.

Thailand

Fertilizer warehouses in North Thailand continued to suffer severe loss on flood.

Flood has affected these warehouses for nearly half of the month and half of

fertilizer volume in the warehouse was estimated to be damaged on water flood.

Warehouses’ owners can correctly estimate the loss after the time when flood

withdraws from the region.

However, Thailand has had transactions for the past time; specifically, Teragro

has purchased 10,000 – 15,000 tons of granular urea from Liven at the price of

US$ 521/ton (CFR) with shipment in October and also purchased 10,000 tons of

granular urea from Keytrade at the similar price.

Apart from the transaction, most of other transactions have been stagnated.

Foreign providers also delayed shipments of MOP cargoes to Thailand.

Pakistan

In October 2011, fertilizer price in Pakistan witnessed a quite sharp rise when

fertilizer manufacturing enterprises were facing severe natural gas crisis, driving

up production cost. On Oct. 31, retail price of urea package surpassed 2,000

Rupees/a 50-kg package (1 USD = 86.5 rupees), an all-time high. Wholesale price


19

of urea was 1,980 Rupees/a 50-kg package. Therefore, since early 2011, urea

manufacturing companies in Pakistan raised urea price by as much as 4 times

compared to the end of 2010 owing to impacts of increased tariff policy as well as

scarcity of natural fuel supply. In October 2011 alone, urea price doubled from

1,083 Rupees/a 50-kg package to 2,000 Rupees/a 50-kg package on Oct. 31.

Sri Lanka and Nepal

A new tender for selling DAP of Sri Lanka will be held on December 2011 after

the previous tender was cancelled on Oct. 17, 2011. However, the information

about the quantity has been unknown.

It is projected that Nepal will open a tender to provide 20,000 tons DAP on

December 10, 2011.

India

On November 1, RCF of India opened a tender for exporting some types of

fertilizers as follows:

o 25,000 tons DAP shipped in December 2011 and February 2012 to Vizag,

New Mangalore, Krishnapattnam, and Kandla.

o 70,000 tons ammonia shipped by November 2011 to New Mangalore,

Kandla, and Krishnapattnam.

o One batch of 50,000 tons of NPK and another batch of 25,000 tons NPK

(10:26:26) shipped in November 2011 and February, 2011 to Vizag, New

Mangalore, Kandla or Krishnapattnam.

On November 3, NFL of India invited a bid to sell 50,000 tons DAP and 25,000

tons phosphate shipped by November and December.

North America

According to the latest data from the Fertilizer Institute (TFI), stocks of potash in

the North America are likely to decline. In fact, total potash production in the

North America still increases but the volume of potash sold also surged, so the


20

stocks declines as well. Potash production of the North America in September

2011 reached 103,400,000 tons, up 23%. Accumulated fertilizer production from

July to September reached 2,758,000 tons, up 31%. Fertilizer sales in September

2011 reached 1,194,000 tons, up 15% from the previous month. Accumulated

fertilizer sales from July to September 2011 amounted to 2,803,000 tons, up 3%.

MARKET OUTLOOK

_______________________________________________________________________

World market

World urea market is relatively quiet, but many traders as well as analysts are

expecting the recovery of the market in the coming time based on the information

that India is projected to purchase in and the information on contract supplying

urea to Pakistan. In addition, that the European customers also started to return to

the market in line with the demand for urea to offset the loss caused by flood in

the US and Thailand is one of factors driving up the demand. Furthermore, the

demand will be added from the Latin America and Turkey. Meanwhile, China

officially imposed high urea export tariff of 110% from November 1, 2011. These

are positive factors, raising world urea price further in the time ahead.

World ammonia supply is quite tight; ammonia price is driven up quite high

compared to the average price in October (up about 7-8%). However, the market

is expecting the increased supply of Ukraine in the second half of November, so

price of Ammonia is likely to start cooling down.

Potash market remains quite bearish, but many traders are also expecting that

potash market in the Southeast Asia will likely access new price levels when two

big providers, BPC and APC, is planning to offer potash at a quite high price of

US$ 535/ton (CIF). This quote is projected to be announced in November 2011.


21

According to BPC, the new price is quite high, but it is likely that the price will be

accepted by buyers in Asian market.

Domestic market

Flood starts to withdraw in provinces in the Mekong River Delta; farmers started

to make preparation for sowing winter-spring rice. Although demand for fertilizer

is currently stronger, it has not reached the peak. Prices of fertilizer remain in

reverse directions. However, it is likely that in the coming time, prices will be

revised up when farmers in the Mekong River Delta enter winter-spring rice crop,

the biggest crop of the year. Moreover, fertilizer price in the world market is

much expected to recover on impact of the world’s supply-demand. Furthermore,

Vietnam fertilizer manufacturing and importing enterprises are also suffering

pressures of input costs (increased exchange rate, interest rate, etc.) on prices of

the product.


22

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Outstanding features of daily reports:

Information selected from reliable sources

Price movement of fertilizers transacted in International markets according

to some sources of International news

China’s local fertilizer prices and movement of Chinese fertilizer market

Fertilizer prices in Vietnam collected from private sources of

AgroMonitor with the highest possible reliability

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23

APPENDIX: MARKET DATA (AGRODATA)

Appendix 1: Fertilizer import volume and value by type in the import period

(Oct. 11-27, 2011)

Type Import period (Oct. 11-27) Import period (Sep. 27-13)

Volume (ton)

Value

(US$)

Volume (ton)

Value

(US$)

Urea 91,497 41,413,228 99,686 43,390,808

Potash 80,330 40,492,852 11,797 6,125,312

SA 27,611 6,918,448 63,232 16,251,313

NPK 20,498 10,023,317 24,107 11,996,171

DAP 15,446 9,522,028 30,732 19,658,609

Ammonium Nitrate

5,280 2,768,160 3,240 1,482,000

Others 2,530 969,829 515 233,865

MAP 1,075 663,315 3,085 1,740,879

Ammonia Chloride 682 163,680 225 58,050

Leaf fertilizer 148 191,555 21 565,450

MKP 94 127,430 22 33,350

Total 245,191 113,253,843 236,662 101,535,806



24

Appendix 2: Top 15 fertilizer import markets of Vietnam in the first 9

months of 2011

Market Volume

(ton)

Value

(US$)

China 1,426,212 568,820,709

Belarus 282,418 126,025,833

Philippines 245,820 116,996,355

Israel 148,452 68,439,905

Canada 133,648 63,757,467

Japan 182,330 40,961,509

Russia 76,220 36,515,825

South Korea 84,817 26,015,982

Indonesia 43,403 18,285,088

Taiwan 64,662 17,021,873

Malaysia 36,779 16,754,862

Saudi Arabia 34,899 15,041,147

Iran 34,896 14,673,576

Singapore 26,209 12,895,161

Norway 22,210 11,413,793


Appendix 3: Fertilizer imports by types in September and the first 9 months

of 2011

Type September 2011 First 9 months of 2011

Volume

(ton)

Value

(US$)

Volume

(ton)

Value

(US$)

Urea 161,335 65,791,511 727,280 266,887,403

SA 102,352 26,108,232 609,873 129,544,487

DAP 74,226 47,455,000 497,501 305,818,392


25

NPK 57,015 28,063,181 248,256 114,065,707

Potash 55,062 28,821,442 685,684 316,747,591

Others 6,333 3,176,322 54,833 28,337,720

Ammonium Nitrate

5,900 2,578,350 68,624 27,390,687

MAP 4,372 2,490,866 29,720 16,110,526

Ammonia Chloride

657 158,466 71,716 10,985,242

Leaf fertilizer 469 1,464,205 4,787 12,473,763

MKP 37 54,250 894 1,192,478

Total 467,757 206,161,823 2,999,169 1,229,553,996


Appendix 4: Market price

1. Urea price in some localities, week 44/2011, VND/kg

Market Price in week 44

Price in Oct.

Price in 2010

Hanoi (Chinese urea) 11600 10864 7477

Da Nang (Chinese urea) 11100 10418 7031

HCMC (Chinese urea) 12000 11245 7229

Can Tho (Chinese urea) 12000 11027 7132

Dong Nai (Phu My urea) 10700 10775 6804

An Giang (Phu My urea) 11500 11711 7168

Tien Giang (Chinese urea) 11800 6883

Lam Dong (Phu My urea) 11800 7501

Source: AGROMONITOR


26

2. DAP price in some localities, week 44/2011, VND/kg

Market Week 44

Week 43

Changes compared to October

Changes compared to 2010

Price in Oct.

Hanoi (Philippine) 15500 15650 -1.3% 40.1% 15700

Da Nang (Philippine) 15350 15100 0.5% 43.1% 15273

HCMC (Philippine) 15800 16000 -1.8% 41.2% 16091

Can Tho (Philippine) 15500 15700 -1.4% 38.8% 15727

An Giang (Philippine) 16000 16300 -1.1% 56.0% 16178

Tien Giang (China) 15000 15000

Lam Dong (Chinese) 14700 14700

Dong Nai (Chinese brown

DAP) 14800 14800 -0.7% 34.8% 14900

Source: AGROMONITOR

3. Wholesale fertilizer prices in some provinces of China as of November 2,

2011 (CNY/ton)

Province Unit

price Province

Unit

price Province

Unit

price

Inner Mongolia 2150

Anhui 2150 Yunnan 2400

Hebei 2050

Hubei 2180 Chongqing 2300

Heilongjiang 2100

Hunan 2200 Guizhou 2300

Jilin 2150

Zhejiang 2200 Gansu 2100

Liaoning 2150

Fujian 2200 Xinjiang 2000

Henan 2100

Jiangxi 2200 Ningxia 2000

Shandong 2050

Guangxi 2200

Shanxi 2050

Guangdong 2200

Source: Adapted by AGROMONITOR


27

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