hmcl 35.7 industry motogaze february 2018 bal sector view...
TRANSCRIPT
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
February 28, 2018
MotoGaze February 2018
s
Strong growth momentum continues!
The strong growth momentum witnessed in auto volumes last year,
continued in the new calendar year with solid growth of 31.1% YoY.
Growth was primarily seen across segments and partly driven by the low
base of demonetisation last year. The 2-W volumes reported robust
growth at 33.6% YoY, driven by both scooter & motorcycle segment,
which grew 46.8%, 30% YoY, respectively. The revival in rural sentiment
in key under penetrated states buoyed growth. The top two players HMCL
& HMSI posted volume growth of 31.7% YoY & 33% YoY, respectively.
The CV segment reported strong growth of 36.6% YoY, driven by LCV
space (volumes up 54.6% YoY), which saw increase in demand from e-
commerce & container and refrigerator vehicles. M&HCV volumes grew
16.9% YoY mainly after stricter implementation of overloading in some
states and revival in infrastructure development. The 3-W volumes were
up 87.7% YoY, as domestic & export volume grew 99.5% & 69.3% YoY,
respectively. The discontinuance of permits in Maharashtra, new permits
released in Delhi & replacement of two-stroke to four-stroke engine in
Bangalore lifted domestic volumes while strong demand revival and low
base supported export growth. The PV segment grew 8.9% YoY, driven
by strong growth of 41.7% YoY in the UV segment. The domestic tractor
volumes grew 38.1% YoY to 49,753 units.
Auto Expo 2018 – Flavour of EVs
Given the government’s aggressive plan of electrifying all new vehicles by
2030, most of the participant OEMs in the recently concluded Auto Expo
2018, emphasised on hybrid & electric vehicles. The new technology
solutions were offered by start-ups and new entrants, which grabbed a
good response. Within the PV space, new launches were made by MSIL –
Swift & Toyota’s -Yaris while the EV concept models were displayed by
most OEMs. Hyundai’s Ioniq is the first car to be offered in three electric
versions – hybrid, plug-in-hybrid & all-electric. Kia Motors made its India
entry and will start sales in FY20E. The Nissan Leaf’s all electric Joe, one
of the four most popular cars sold in Europe, was also showcased in the
Expo. Within 2-W space, HMCL marked its foray into 125 cc scooter
segment with the launch of Duet & Maestro Edge. HMSI unveiled all-new
160cc motorcycle X-Blade (will be launched next month) & fifth generation
Activa 5G. TVS Motors introduced ethanol based - Apache RTR 200 Fi. It
also unveiled – Zeppelin motorcycle & Creon – a concept electric scooter.
Long term story intact
The higher focus on rural & infrastructure development in Budget 2018 will
favour the auto space. The auto industry weathered key structural events
like implementation of BS IV norms and GST, with its volumes recovering,
up 13.3% in YTDFY18. The overall 2-W, PV, CV volume growth was at
14.3%, 6.1% YoY, 13.2% YoY, respectively, in YTDFY18. We expect the
strong growth momentum to continue in FY19E, (expect ~10% growth).
The government’s focus on the rural economy will aid the demand for 2-W
players in key under penetrated agrarian states. A buoyant outlook on
infrastructure spending will catalyse M&HCV growth.
For January 2018, the BSE Auto Index was down 3% underperforming the
benchmark index, which was up 5.6%. The pace of electric vehicle (EV)
adoption & BS VI implementation by 2020 is expected to lead to huge
investments & partnership in R&D. We believe the major OEMs business
will adopt new technology smoothly. However, ancillary companies
producing internal combustion engine related parts will face challenges.
The new technology can prove to be a threat to the incumbent in the
battery space, with new players & OEMs entering the space. In our I-direct
auto coverage, we remain bullish on frontline OEM stocks like Maruti
Suzuki and Eicher Motors.
Sector View
Overweight
Volume performance for January 2018
Company Gr. YoY(%)
Hero Motocorp 31.7
Bajaj Auto 46.0
TVS Motors 31.3
Maruti Suzuki 4.8
Tata Motors 39.4
Ashok Leyland 21.7
Mahindra and Mahindra 32.4
Key players & industry volume growth –January’18 (%)
21.0
35.7
20.7
5.8
32.6
16.4
6.1
32.8
-10.6
-6.0
31.1
31.7
46.0
31.3
33.0
4.8
39.4
32.4
8.5
21.7
Industry
HMCL
BAL
TVS
HMSI
Maruti
TML
M&M
Hyundai
ALL
MoM
YoY
Source: Siam
Key players & industry volume growth YTDFY18 (%)
13.3
12.6
6.3
15.8
21.5
13.1
14.1
6.5
1.0
19.5
Industry
HMCL
BAL
TVS
HMSI
Maruti
TML
M&M
Hyundai
ALL
YTDFY18
Source: Siam
Research Analyst
Nishit Zota
Vidrum Mehta
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 2
Motorcycle, scooters both drive two wheeler volumes!
For January 2018, overall 2-W volumes grew 33.6% YoY, supported by
both motorcycle & scooter segments, which grew 30% & 46.8% YoY,
respectively. Overall 2-W domestic volumes grew 33.4% YoY while
exports volumes grew 34.8% YoY. In terms of players, the top two - HMCL
& HMSI reported strong volume growth of 31.7% YoY & 33% YoY,
respectively. The other 2-W players viz. TVS & BAL (third & fourth largest
player) reported volume growth of 30.1% YoY & 36.4% YoY, respectively.
The 3-W volumes grew 87.7%, supported by a revival in export volume
(up 69.3% YoY) and higher demand in domestic market (up 99.5% YoY),
mainly due to discontinuance of permits in Maharashtra, new permits
released in Delhi & replacement of two-stroke to four-stroke engine in
Bangalore. Domestic tractor industry volumes grew 38.1% YoY to 49,753
units & 18% YoY to 590,384 units for January 2018 & YTDFY18,
respectively.
Market share movement
According to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile
Manufacturers (Siam), the domestic market share of two and three-
wheeler players as of January 2018 is mentioned below.
Exhibit 1: Domestic market share movement in two-wheelers
11.6
36.5
14.2
27.2
10.59.8
36.2
14.3
29.0
10.7
9.8
36.2
14.2
29.0
10.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Bajaj Auto Hero MotoCorp TVS Motors HMSI Others
(%
)
Jan-17 Dec-17 Jan-18
Source: Siam, Data used is YTD
Exhibit 2: Domestic market share movement in three-wheelers
50.0
29.2
10.0
10.8
56.5
25.5
8.7
9.3
57.2
24.8
8.6
9.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Bajaj Auto
Piaggio
M&M
Others
(%)
Jan-18 Dec-17 Jan-17
Source: Siam, Data used is YTD
Overall 2-W segment volumes grew 33.6% YoY in January 2018.
Over last year, HMSI has outperformed the 2-W industry growth,
thereby expanding its market share by 180 bps YoY to 29%. On
the other hand, HMCL continues to enjoy a dominant position
with share of 36.2%. With the underperformance on a YTDFY18
basis, BAL has lost market share of ~180bps YoY to 9.8%
In January 2018, domestic 3W volumes grew 87.7% YoY,
mainly supported by market leader Bajaj Auto, which
reported strong volume growth of 113.6% YoY, thereby
gaining market share by 720bps YoY to 57.2%
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 3
Exhibit 3: Domestic market share movement in motorcycles
18.3
50.6
7.3
14.215.8
51.2
7.4
15.715.7
51.3
7.3
15.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Bajaj Auto Hero Motocorp TVS motor Honda
(%
)
Jan-17 Dec-17 Jan-18
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 4: Domestic market share movement in scooters/scooters
14.1 14.5
57.5
13.812.9
16.2
57.2
13.613.0
16.1
57.3
13.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Hero Motocorp TVS Motors Honda Others
(%
)
Jan-17 Dec-17 Jan-18
Source: Siam, Data used is YTD
Overall motorcycle volumes increased 30% YoY in January
2018. HMCL continues to be the market leader in the space
with a share of ~51%
Overall scooter volumes grew 46.8% YoY in January 2018.
HMSI maintained its leadership position in scooters with
market share of ~57% YoY
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 4
Exhibit 5: Market share movement in executive motorcycle (<125 cc) segment*
19.4
59.6
6.0
15.0
0
4
8
12
16
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-1
6
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-1
7
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
(%
)
(%
)
Bajaj Auto (RHS) Hero Motocorp (LHS) TVS (RHS) HMSI (RHS)
Source: Siam * only top four two-wheeler OEMs
Exhibit 6: Market share movement in motorcycle greater than 125 cc segment
53.9
3.4
21.3
21.4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-1
6
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-1
7
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
(%
)
(%
)
Bajaj Auto (LHS) Hero Motocorp (RHS) TVS (RHS) HMSI (RHS)
Source: Siam *only top three vehicle two-wheeler OEMs
HMCL continues to dominate the executive motorcycle
segment (<=125 cc) in India with a market share of
~59.6%. HMSI’s volumes have been more volatile thereby
resulting in wide fluctuation in its market share in the last 12
months
BAL continues to dominate the executive motorcycle
segment (<=125 cc) in India with market share at ~54%.
HMSI’s volumes have been more volatile thereby resulting in
wide fluctuation in its market share in the last 12 months
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 5
Hero MotoCorp (HERHON)
The market leader in the 2-W space, Hero MotoCorp’s (HMCL),
volume grew 31.7% YoY to 641,501 units. Its motorcycle & scooter
volume grew 25.5% YoY & 103.1% YoY, respectively
Its top selling model Splendor volume grew 12.4% YoY. HF
Deluxe & Glamour reported strong volume growth of 41.1% YoY &
106.8% YoY, respectively. All its three scooter models (supported
by positive sentiments & refreshes) reported strong volumes,
Maestro (up 93.5% YoY), Duet (107.8% YoY) & Pleasure (119.8%
YoY)
HMCL, to revive its focus on the growing premium motorcycle
segment, unveiled all new ‘Xtreme 200R’ and will be across
dealership from April 2018. The management expects HMCL to
maintain its strong growth trajectory going forward.
Exhibit 7: Volume performance (in units)
Segment Jan-18 Jan-17 %chg Dec-17 %chg YTDFY'18 YTDFY17 %chg
Motorcycles 562,931 448,394 25.5 413,946 36.0 5,473,286 4,838,371 13.1
Scooters 78,570 38,694 103.1 58,785 33.7 753,813 691,152 9.1
Total Sales 641,501 487,088 31.7 472,731 35.7 6,227,099 5,529,523 12.6
Export(inc. above) 22,114 15,368 43.9 16,861 31.2 154,609 141,554 9.2
Exports (% of sales) 3.4 3.2 29 bps 3.6 -12 bps 2.5 2.6 -8 bps
Source: Company, Siam
Bajaj Auto (BAAUTO)
Bajaj Auto’s (BAL) 2-W volumes grew 36.4% YoY, driven by both
exports & domestic volumes, which were up 36.7% YoY & 36.1%
YoY, respectively. On a YTDFY18 basis, its domestic volumes
declined 4% YoY resulting in a significant loss of market share
(down 180 bps YoY) in the 2-W space to 9.8%
Pulsar volumes grew 45.8% YoY to 77,550 units (driven by 150-
200 cc category). Volumes of its entry level segment (75-110 cc),
which includes brands like CT, Platina, Boxer & Discover, grew
71.6% YoY to 158,122 units. This was mainly due to strong
exports growth in Boxer & domestic growth in Discover. Volumes
of CT declined 4.1% YoY while Platina volumes grew 48.4% YoY.
Volumes of ‘V15’ & ‘V12’ declined 49.3% YoY to 5,001 units &
80.4% YoY to 2,013 units. Overall volumes of Dominar were at
3,322 units
Its overall 3-W volumes grew 113.6% YoY after domestic volumes
grew 154% YoY driven by discontinuance of permits in
Maharashtra, new permits released in Delhi & replacement of two-
stroke to four-stroke engine in Bangalore. The revival in export
market lifted its volumes up 71.2% YoY
Exhibit 8: Volume performance (in units)
Segment Jan-18 Jan-17 %chg Dec-17 %chg YTDFY'18 YTDFY17 %chg
Total 2-wheeler sales 288,936 211,824 36.4 228,762 26.3 2,801,881 2,730,739 2.6
2W exports 125,825 92,021 36.7 115,832 8.6 1,161,780 1,023,084 13.6
2W domestic sales 163,111 119,803 36.1 112,930 44.4 1,640,101 1,707,655 -4.0
Total 3-wheeler sales 64,211 30,065 113.6 63,785 0.7 512,679 388,741 31.9
3W exports 25,129 14,680 71.2 27,206 -7.6 226,189 170,167 32.9
3w domestic sales 39,082 15,385 154.0 36,579 6.8 286,490 218,574 31.1
Total Sales 353,147 241,889 46.0 292,547 20.7 3,314,560 3,119,480 6.3
Total Domestic Sales 202,193 135,188 49.6 149,509 35.2 1,926,591 1,926,229 0.0
Total Exports 150,954 106,701 41.5 143,038 5.5 1,387,969 1,193,251 16.3
Exports as % of sales 42.7 44.1 -137 bps 48.9 -615 bps 41.9 38.3 362 bps
Source: Company, Siam
Hero MotoCorp: Sales volumes
448
459 537
530
561
547
554
599
630
550
525
414
563
39
65
73
65
73
77
69
80
91
81 80
59
79
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
150
300
450
600
750
Ja
n-17
Ma
r-17
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Sep
-17
Nov-17
Ja
n-18
('0
00s)
('0
00s)
Motorcycles Scooters
Source: Siam, ICICIdirect.com Research
Bajaj Auto: Sales volumes
212
245
244 294
277
205 2
65
284
370
326
264
229 2
89
30
29
28
36
37
40
43
51
59
57
62
64
64
44
42
38
46
45
48
3940
34 35
45
49
43
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-1
7
Nov-17
Jan-18
(%
)
('0
00s)
Two-Wheelers Three-Wheelers % exports
Source: Siam, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 6
TVS Motors (TVSMOT)
TVS’ volumes (2-W+3-W) for January 2018 came in at ~2.7 lakh
units, up 31.3% YoY. The 2-W volumes grew 30.1% YoY while 3-
W volumes grew 81.6% YoY
Motorcycle segment volumes grew 65.8% YoY to 98,649 units.
Volumes of Apache & Star City (family) grew 58.7% YoY to 40,531
units & 64.9% YoY to 31,380 units. Volumes of Sport grew 52%
YoY to 13,360 units. Its scooter volumes grew 20.8% YoY to
85,521 units. This was after overall volume of Jupiter grew 25.3%
YoY to 65,243 units. Volumes of Pep+ grew 39.7% YoY to 10,684
units. However, Wego volumes declined 40.5% YoY to 3,462
units. Its moped volumes grew 9.7% YoY at 78,825 units
Export volumes grew 25.5% YoY to 42,802 units as 2-W & 3-W
volumes grew 19.6% YoY to 36,003 units & 69.9% YoY to 6,799
units, respectively
Exhibit 9: Volume performance (in units)
Segment Jan-18 Jan-17 %chg Dec-17 %chg YTDFY'18 YTDFY17 %chg
Motorcycles 98,649 59,511 65.8 95,281 3.5 1,107,868 921,631 20.2
Scooters 85,521 70,813 20.8 83,640 2.2 940,373 717,670 31.0
Mopeds 78,825 71,885 9.7 68,709 14.7 722,478 761,151 -5.1
Total 2-W Sales 262,995 202,209 30.1 247,630 6.2 2,770,719 2,400,452 15.4
3-Wheelers 8,806 4,850 81.6 9,279 -5.1 78,059 58,669 33.0
Total Sales 271,801 207,059 31.3 256,909 5.8 2,848,778 2,459,121 15.8
Exports(incl. in above) 42,802 34,110 25.5 47,818 -10.5 451,854 348,205 29.8
Exports as % of sales 16.3 16.9 19.3 16.3 14.5
Domestice sales 228,999 172,949 32.4 209,091 9.5 2,396,924 2,110,916 13.5
Source: Company, Siam
Honda Motorcycles & Scooters India (HMSI)
For January 2018, HMSI’s overall volumes grew 33% YoY to
517,778 units. This was after domestic motorcycle & scooter
volume grew 21.8% YoY & 39.6% YoY, respectively
Domestic motorcycles volumes grew 21.8% YoY as volumes of
CB Shine grew 17.2% YoY to 82,390 units. Domestic volumes of
Dream & LIVO grew 64.8% YoY to 30,969 units & 11% YoY to
18,627 units, respectively. Domestic scooter volumes grew 39.6%
YoY, after Activa volumes grew 23.8% YoY to 243,826 units.
Volumes of Dio grew 81% YoY to 39,397 units. Volumes of Aviator
grew 39.2% YoY to 11,132 units. The newly launched CLIQ &
Grazia volumes were at 1,304 units & 22,656 units, respectively, in
January 2018
Export volumes grew 35.5% YoY to 28,923 units, mainly after
scooter volumes, grew 55.7% YoY to 16,052 units. Its export share
was at 5.6% of sales
Exhibit 10: Volume performance (in units)
Segment Jan-18 Jan-17 %chg Dec-17 %chg YTDFY'18 YTDFY17 %chg
Motorcycles 169,537 139,161 21.8 124,425 36.3 1,637,142 1,339,540 22.2
Scooters 319,318 228,811 39.6 238,820 33.7 3,231,353 2,693,631 20.0
Total Sales 517,778 389,313 33.0 390,439 32.6 5,163,831 4,248,456 21.5
Exports(incl.above) 28,923 21,341 35.5 21,879 32.2 295,336 232,397 27.1
Exports as % of sales 5.6 5.5 10 bps 5.6 -2 bps 5.7 5.5 25 bps
Domestice sales 488,855 367,972 32.9 368,560 32.6 4,868,495 4,016,099 21.2
Source: Company, Siam
TVS Motors: Sales volumes
60
58 9
6
100
118
112
109
112
144
125
93
95
99
71
69
84
81 8
6
90
92
114 1
22
107
78
84
86
72
78
71
60
72
66
62
83
85
76
72
69 79
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-1
7
Nov-17
Jan-18
('0
00s)
Motorcycles Scooters Mopeds
Source: Siam, ICICIdirect.com Research
HMSI: Motorcycles & scooter sales volumes
139
120
85
183
176
145
168
192
183
144
151
124
170
229
250
254
369
334
271
344 3
94
386
293
282
239
319
0
75
150
225
300
375
450
525
600
675
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-1
7
Nov-17
Jan-18
('0
00s)
Motorcyc les Scooters
Source: Siam, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 7
PV segment witnesses some recovery
The overall passenger vehicles segment grew 8.9% YoY to 342,103 units
for January 2018. Domestic PV volumes grew 7.6% YoY to 285,477 units
while exports grew 16.4% YoY to 56,626 units. Within the sub-segment,
the utility vehicle (UVs) segment reported healthy growth of 41.7% YoY to
98,787 units, driving overall PV volumes. Volumes of car segment
reported marginal growth of 0.1% YoY to 227,663 units while that of vans
declined 6.8% YoY to 15,653 units. With MSIL having a strong presence in
the car space, which grew marginally, the company reported modest
volume (up 4.8% YoY to 151,351 units), underperforming the PV industry.
For January 2018, the UV1 sub-segment grew 49.5% YoY to 72,571 units,
driven by Ford India (Eco sport), which grew 154.8% YoY to 13,579 units,
Honda Car’s (WR-V) volumes were at 4,323 units while Tata Motor’s
(Nexon) volumes were at 5,018 units. MSIL’s Vitara Brezza‘s overall
volumes grew 29.6% YoY to 11,919 units. The facelift of S-Cross lifted its
volumes to 3,648 units vs. 2,600 units in January 2017. Volumes of Gypsy
were at 940 units vs. 79 units in January 2017. Hyundai’s Creta volumes
grew 10.4% YoY to 12,409 units. Volumes in the UV2 space grew 9.7%
YoY to 18,324 units. Volumes of Toyota’s Innova grew 40.3% YoY to 7,031
units while that of Honda Cars BR-V declined 27.2% YoY to 1,191 units.
Aggregate volumes of all M&M’s models in the UV2 category (viz. Scorpio,
Bolero Plus, Xylo, XUV5OO) grew 12.4% YoY to 9,656 units. The segment
was impacted after General Motors stopped selling vehicles in India (Enjoy
& Tavera aggregate volume was at 751 units in January 2017).
Commercial vehicle volumes grew 36.6% YoY to 94,902 units, as M&HCV
volumes grew 16.9% YoY to 38,676 units & LCV volume grew 54.6% YoY
to 56,226 units. M&HCV volumes were driven by increase in restrictions on
overloading & pick-up in infrastructure projects while LCV volumes were
aided by an increase in demand from e-commerce sector and also due to
higher demand from container & refrigerator vehicles. The MHCV/LCV
volume ratio was at 41:59 in January 2018 vs. 28:72 in April 2017 vs. the
average ratio 41:59 over the past 36 months.
Market share movement
According to Siam, the domestic market share for passenger vehicles (PV)
and commercial vehicles (CV) in January 2018 was as follows:
Exhibit 11: Domestic market share movement in passenger vehicles
47.6
16.8
5.6
7.6
4.9
17.4
50.3
16.4
6.0
7.3
5.4
14.7
50.1
16.4
6.2
7.4
5.3
14.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Maruti
Hyundai
Tata Motors
M&M
Honda Cars
Others
(%)
Jan-18 Dec-17 Jan-17
Source: Siam, Data used is YTD * passenger vehicles as per Siam include Vans like Gio, Maxximo, Eeco, Ace
MSIL continues to dominate the PV segment with market
share of 50% in January 2018
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 8
Exhibit 12: Market share movement in A2 segment
25.922.8
67.3 68.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-1
6
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-1
7
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
(%
)
Hyundai Maruti
Source: Siam, Top two PV OEMs considered
Exhibit 13: Domestic market share movement in commercial vehicles
18.3
25.3
43.3
13.1
18.0
26.0
44.1
11.9
18.2
25.8
44.1
11.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
ALL M&M Tata Motors Others
(%
)
Jan-17 Dec-17 Jan-18
Source: Siam Data used is YTD
Exhibit 14: Segmental share in CVs
44.5
40.75
55.5
59.25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-1
6
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-1
7
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
(%
)
M&HCV LCV
Source: Siam
The A2 (Mini & Compact) segment is the bread & butter
category of the passenger car segment. The segment
witnessed a demand revival, with volumes up 8.4% YoY on
a YTDFY18 basis, primarily supported by market leader
MSIL, which grew 16.5% YoY in the same segment
M&HCV & LCV volumes increased 16.9% YoY & 54.6% YoY,
respectively, in January 2018. Thus, overall CV volumes
grew 36.6% YoY
Tata Motors continues to be the market leader in the
overall CV space with market share of ~44% and is
followed by M&M with market share of ~26% in January
2018
The MHCV/LCV ratio was at 41:59 in January 2018 vs.
28:72 in April 2017, after M&HCV volumes sharply
recovered from July 2017 onwards. Average M&HCV
volumes (in the past 36 months) has been ~41% of total
CV sales
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 9
Tata Motors (TATMOT)
Tata Motors’ overall standalone volumes increased 39.4% YoY to
64,624 units, backed by its domestic CV & PV segment, which
grew 38.1% YoY & 55.4% YoY, respectively
Domestic M&HCV volumes increased 15.6% YoY to 16,012 units
while LCV volumes grew 59.3% YoY to 23,374 units driven by
increased in restrictions on overloading, pick-up in infrastructure
projects, increase in demand from e-commerce sector and also
higher demand from container & refrigerator vehicles. On the PV
side, volumes of Tiago & Tigor were at 8,297 units & 3,189 units,
respectively. Within its UV portfolio, volumes of Hexa (launched in
January 2017) & Nexon (launched in September 2017) were at 873
units & 5,018 units, respectively, in January 2018
JLR’s wholesale volumes grew 1.8% YoY at 49,631 units. Jaguar
volumes grew 4.4% YoY to 16,108 units. Land Rover volumes
grew 0.6% YoY to 33,523 units. We believe the Chinese market
would have largely supported the overall growth
Exhibit 15: Volume performance (in units)
Segment Jan-18 Jan-17 %chg Dec-17 %chg YTDFY'18 YTDFY17 %chg
Domestic MHCV 16,012 13,849 15.6 19,298 -17.0 127,813 116,222 10.0
Domestic LCV 23,374 14,672 59.3 21,149 10.5 181,126 142,362 27.2
Domestic Pass.Car Sales 13,415 10,600 26.6 8,138 64.8 111,264 111,500 -0.2
Domestic UV 6,640 2,307 187.8 6,042 9.9 38,020 14,052 170.6
Exports 5,183 4,921 5.3 6,293 -17.6 40,921 53,468 -23.5
Total Sales 64,624 46,349 39.4 60,920 6.1 499,144 437,604 14.1
Jaguar 16,108 15,427 4.4 16,826 -4.3 138,953 142,088 -2.2
Landrover 33,523 33,313 0.6 38,240 -12.3 361,431 332,337 8.8
Total JLR Sales 49,631 48,740 1.8 55,066 -9.9 500,384 474,425 5.5
Source: Company, Siam
Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI)
Maruti Suzuki’s (MSIL) volumes grew 4.8% YoY to 151,351 units
Volumes of its domestic mini car segment de-grew 12.2% YoY, as
volumes of Alto & Wagon R declined 16.8% YoY & 5% YoY
respectively. Domestic volumes of Baleno & Vitara Brezza were at
17,770 & 11,785 units, respectively. DZire’s (domestic) volumes
normalised at 18,053 units, adjusting for production ramp up & the
waiting period. Export volumes grew 2.8% YoY to 10,751 units
MSIL has commissioned a study to gauge the requirement of
potential customers as it embarks on the journey to bring on road
affordable electric vehicle by 2020
Exhibit 16: Volume performance (in units)
Segment Jan-18 Jan-17 %chg Dec-17 %chg YTDFY'18 YTDFY17 %chg
Omni, Eeco,Versa 12,250 14,179 -13.6 11,420 7.3 129,023 126,186 2.2
Alto, Wagon-R, Zen, Swift,Ritz,
Celerio, Dzire,Baleno 101,184 93,745 7.9 85,482 18.4 970,260 827,078 17.3
SX4, Swift Dzire Tour, Ciaz 5,062 9,531 -46.9 2,382 112.5 49,695 82,516 -39.8
Total Passengers 118,496 117,455 0.9 99,284 19.4 1,148,978 1,035,780 10.9
Gypsy, Vitara,Ertiga,Brezza 20,693 16,313 26.8 19,276 7.4 210,671 159,567 32.0
Total Domestic 139,189 133,768 4.1 118,560 17.4 1,359,649 1,195,347 13.7
LCV (Super Carry) 1,411 166 NA 726 NA 7,369 460 NA
Exports 10,751 10,462 2.8 10,780 -0.3 102,134 102,753 -0.6
Total Sales 151,351 144,396 4.8 130,066 16.4 1,469,152 1,298,560 13.1
Exports as % of sales 7.1 7.2 8.3 7.0 7.9
Source: Company, Siam.
Maruti Suzuki India: Sales volumes
144
130
140
151
137
106
165
164
163
146
155
130 151
7.2
7.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-1
7
Nov-17
Jan-18
(%
)
('0
00s)
Total Sa les Ex port %
Source: Siam, ICICIdirect.com Research
Tata Motors: Domestic sales volume
33.2
33.4
41.4
18.0
27.4
29.1
31.1
34.6
40.6
36.6
40.0
46.5
44.3
13.2
14.1
15.7
12.9
10.9
11.3
15.1
14.4 1
7.6
16.6
17.4
14.4
20.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-1
7
Nov-17
Jan-18
(000's
)
CV Sa les PV Sales
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Jaguar Land Rover sales volume
48.7 54.6
71.6
41.9
47.1
49.4
51.4
44.4
57.4
49.8
54.2
55.1
49.6
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan'1
7
Feb'1
7
Mar'1
7
Apr'1
7
May'1
7
June'1
7
July
'17
Aug'1
7
Sept'1
7
Oct'1
7
Nov'1
7
Dec'1
7
Jan'1
8
(000's
)
(%
share o
f total volu
mes)
% Jaguar % LR JLR total volumes(RHS)
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 10
Ashok Leyland (ASHLEY)
Ashok Leyland’s (ALL) volumes grew 21.7% YoY to 18,100 units,
as M&HCV volumes grew 13.2% YoY to 13,642 units. Its LCV
segment grew 58.3% YoY to 4,458 units. On a YTDFY18 basis, its
M&HCV market share has improved 67 bps YoY to ~34% YoY
Volumes of M&HCV passenger increased 10% YoY to 1,871 units
while M&HCV goods volumes grew 13.7% YoY to 11,771 units.
Exports grew 39.7% YoY, with overall share at 8.9% of sales
ALL aims to diversify its business with focus on 1) LCV – aiming to
launch one product per quarter; 2) Exports – plans to increase
export revenue to >30% from the current <10%; 3) Aftermarket –
aims to increase higher margin aftermarket business; 4) Defence –
aims to increase its revenue by 10x (from the current revenue of
~| 500 crore to | 5,000 crore, going forward)
Mahindra and Mahindra (MAHMAH)
M&M’s overall automotive volumes grew 32.4% YoY to 52,048
units. Its core domestic UV volumes grew 15.7% YoY to 22,235
units. Volumes of Bolero grew 31% YoY to 7,251 units. Volumes
of TUV3OO & KUV1OO increased 9.2% YoY to 2,680 units & 2.4%
YoY to 2,806 units, respectively. Volumes of XUV5OO & Scorpio
increased 15.3% YoY to 2,584 units & 14% YoY to 5,340 units,
respectively
M&M’s tractor volumes grew 37.5% YoY to 21,875 units. Domestic
tractor industry volumes grew 38.1% YoY to 49,753 units & 18%
YoY to 590,384 units for January 2018 & YTDFY18, respectively
Exhibit 17: Volume performance (in units)
Segment Jan-18 Jan-17 %chg Dec-17 %chg YTDFY'18 YTDFY17 %chg
M&HCV Passenger 1,871 1,701 10.0 1,628 14.9 16,184 18,332 -11.7
M&HCV Goods 11,771
10,355 13.7 14,320 -17.8 84,465 68,363 23.6
LCV 4,458 2,816 58.3 3,303 35.0 33,568 25,612 31.1
Passenger Vehicles - 0 NA 0 NA - - NA
Total Sales 18,100 14,872 21.7 19,251 -6.0 134,217 112,307 19.5
Exports 1,616 1,157 39.7 1,367 18.2 14,351 9,787 46.6
Exports as % of sales 8.9 7.8 7.1 10.7 8.7
Source: Company, Siam
Exhibit 18: Volume performance (in units)
Segment Jan-18 Jan-17 %chg Dec-17 %chg YTDFY'18 YTDFY17 %chg
UV’s 22,235 19,217 15.7 14,514 53.2 188,345 179,185 5.1
4-Wheeler pickups 19,309 12,737 51.6 15,749 22.6 157,296 136,322 15.4
M & HCV 1,693 1,153 46.8 1,793 -5.6 13,060 11,364 14.9
Total 4wheeler Sales 44,688 33,986 31.5 33,085 35.1 370,427 332,825 11.3
3-Wheeler 4,744 3,056 55.2 3,894 21.8 42,885 43,818 -2.1
Total Domestic Auto Sales 49,432 37,042 33.4 36,979 33.7 413,312 376,643 9.7
Exports 2,616 2,261 15.7 2,221 17.8 22,149 32,242 -31.3
Total Auto Sales 52,048 39,303 32.4 39,200 32.8 435,461 408,885 6.5
Exports as % of sales 5.0 5.8 5.7 5.1 7.9
Tractors - Domestic 20,647 14,776 39.7 16,671 23.8 255,696 216,602 18.0
- Exports 1,228 1,133 8.4 1,617 -24.1 12,927 12,046 7.3
Total Tractors 21,875 15,909 37.5 18,288 19.6 268,623 228,648 17.5
Exports as % of sales 5.6 7.1 8.8 4.8 5.3
Source: Company, Siam
Mahindra and Mahindra: Sales volume
39.3
42.7
56.0
39.4
41.9
35.7 41.7
42.1
53.7
51.1
38.6
39.2
52.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ja
n-17
Feb
-17
Mar-17
Apr-1
7
May-1
7
Ju
n-17
Ju
l-17
Aug-1
7
Sep-17
Oc
t-17
Nov-1
7
De
c-17
Ja
n-18
(000's
)
Source: SIAM, ICICIdirect.com Research
Mahindra and Mahindra: Tractor sales
15.9
15.0 19.3
26.0
25.6
32.9
18.8
16.5
45.6
40.3
22.8
18.3 21.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-1
7
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
(000's
)
Source: SIAM, ICICIdirect.com Research
Ashok Leyland: Total sales
12.1
11.3 15.3
4.5
6.1 9
.2
9.0
10.6
11.8
9.1
10.6 1
5.9
13.6
2.8
2.7
3.4
2.6 2
.9
3.1
3.0 3
.0 3.6
3.8 3
.8
3.3
4.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-1
7
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
(000's
)
M&HCV LCV
Source: Siam, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 11
Top domestic model wise volumes for January 2018
Exhibit 19: Top 10 passenger vehicle – Models sold in India (in units)
S.No. Models Jan-17 Models Jan-18
1 Alto 22,998 Alto 19,134
2 DZIRE TOUR 18,088 DZIRE 18,053
3 Wagon R 14,930 Baleno 17,770
4 Swift 14,545 Swift 14,445
5 Grand i10 13,010 Wagon R 14,182
6 Elite i20 11,460 Grand i10 12,109
7 Celerio 10,879 VITARA BREZZA 11,785
8 Baleno 10,476 Elite i20 9,650
9 VITARA BREZZA 8,932 Creta 9,284
10 Omni 8,723 Tiago 8,287
Source: Siam
Exhibit 20: Top 10 two-wheelers – Models sold in India (in units)
S.No. Models Jan-17 Models Jan-18
1 Splendor 208,512 Activa 243,826
2 Activa 196,996 Splendor 231,356
3 HF Deluxe 122,202 HF Deluxe 171,167
4 CB Shine 70,294 CB Shine 82,390
5 TVS XL Super 69,373 TVS XL Super 76,309
6 Passion 56,335 Glamour 75,533
7 Jupiter 51,868 Jupiter 64,990
8 Classic 350 39,391 Passion 61,661
9 Glamour 38,204 Pulsar 56,919
10 Pulsar 36,456 Classic 350 53,221
Source: Siam
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 12
Upcoming 2-Ws & 4-Ws in India
Exhibit 21: Upcoming OEM wise 2-Ws and 4-Ws in India
S.No. OEM Bramd / Model Launch Date
1 Maruti Suzuki Vitara Apr-18
2 Maruti Suzuki New Ertiga Jun-18
3 Maruti Suzuki Jimmy Dec-19
4 Hyundai New Eon Apr-18
5 Hyundai i20 Sport Jun-18
6 Hyundai Kona Nov-18
7 Mahindra & Mahindra New XUV5OO Aug-18
8 Honda Cars Honda Civic Mar-18
9 Honda Cars Amaze Jun-18
10 Honda Cars Honda CR-V Mar-19
11 Hero Motocorp Dare 125 Mar-18
12 Hero Motocorp Hatsur Mar-18
13 Hero Motocorp Xtreme 200R Apr-18
14 Hero Motocorp Xpluse Jun-18
15 Hero Motocorp Duet-E Nov-18
16 Hero Motocorp Duet 125 Nov-18
17 Hero Motocorp Maestro Edge 125 Dec-18
18 TVS Motors Dazz Mar-18
19 Eicher Motors Continental GT 650 Jun-18
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research, Autondtv
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 13
State wise sales mix for H1FY18 (April – September 2017)
Exhibit 22: Top 10 state wise PV volume for H1FY18 (in units)
189580
135496
144231
136077
115311
114967
103281
82438
78520
62191
192936
113998
124450
125437
123563
111999
99804
80175
67620
59271
-1.7
18.9
15.9
8.5
-6.7
2.73.5
2.8
16.1
4.9
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Maharashtra
U.P
.
Guja
rat
Kerala
Karnataka
Tam
il N
adu
Delh
i
Haryana
Raja
sthan
Tela
ngana
H1FY18 (units) H1FY17 (units) YoY growth %
Source: Siam
Exhibit 23: Top 10 state wise 2-W volume for H1FY18 (in units)
1426274
989123
857614
657583
717108
652141
486396
581348
618124
5388501103495
989149
869836
644140
656101
644168
408737
482579
548514
504253
29.3
0.0-1.4
2.1
9.3
1.2
19.020.5
12.7
6.9
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
U.P
.
Maharashtra
Tam
il N
adu
Andhra P
radesh
Guja
rat
Karnataka
Bih
ar
Madh. P
rad.
Raja
sthan
West B
engal
H1FY18 (units) H1FY17 (units) YoY growth %
Source: Siam
State wise market share of PV for H1FY18
Maharasht
ra
12%
U.P.
8%
Gujarat
9%
Kerala
8%
Karnataka
7%
Tamil Nadu
7%
Delhi
6%
Haryana
5%
Rajasthan
5%
Telangana
4%
Others
29%
Source: Siam, ICICIdirect.com Research
State wise market share of 2-W for H1FY18
U.P., 14%
Maharashtra,
9%
Tamil Nadu, 8%
Andhra
Pradesh, 6%
Gujarat, 7%
Karnataka, 6%
Bihar, 5%
Madh. Prad.,
6%
Rajasthan, 6%
West Bengal,
5%
Others, 28%
Source: Siam, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 14
State wise sales mix for H1FY18 (April–September 2017)
Exhibit 24: Top 10 state wise CV volume for H1FY18 (in units)
43870
32263
27449
24636
23032
21144
20712
20017
18912
12678
43535
26105
29322
23422
22301
23684
23249
17381
18649
10748
0.8
23.6
-6.4
5.23.3
-10.7 -10.9
15.2
1.4
18.0
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Maharashtra
U.P
.
Tam
il N
adu
Raja
sthan
Karnataka
Andhra P
radesh
Guja
rat
Haryana
West B
engal
Assam
H1FY18 (units) H1FY17 (units) YoY growth %
Source: Siam
Exhibit 25: Top 10 state wise 3-W volume for H1FY18 (in units)
26793
40588
19721
21712
18379
17562
15265
17169
14271
10158
27456
41334
22169 33016
18975
20231
15592
19538
13938
8573
-2.4 -1.8
-11.0
-34.2
-3.1
-13.2
-2.1
-12.1
2.4
18.5
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Guja
rat
Maharashtra
Karnataka
Andhra P
radesh
Tela
ngana
U.P
.
Kerala
Bih
ar
Tam
il N
adu
Madh. P
rad.
H1FY18 (units) H1FY17 (units) YoY growth %
Source: Siam
State wise market share of CV for H1FY18
Maharashtra
12%
U.P.
9%
Tamil Nadu
8%
Rajasthan
7%
Karnataka
7%
Andhra
Pradesh
6%
Gujarat
6%
Haryana
6%
West Bengal
5%
Assam
4%
Others
30%
Source: Siam, ICICIdirect.com Research
State wise market share of 3-W for H1FY18
Gujarat, 10%
Maharashtra,
16%
Karnataka, 8%
Andhra
Pradesh, 8%
Telangana, 7%
U.P., 7%Kerala, 6%
Bihar, 7%
Tamil Nadu,
5%
Madh. Prad.,
4%
Others, 22%
Source: Siam, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 15
Auto Expo 2018 - Flavour of EVs
We attended Auto Expo 2018 – the motor show (OEMs) and components
show. The motor show registered >600,000 footfalls and witnessed >500
products display from >100 exhibitors. Given the government’s
aggressive plan of electrifying all new vehicles by 2030, most of the
participant OEMs in the recently concluded Auto Expo 2018, emphasised
on hybrid & electric vehicles. The new technology solutions were offered
by start-ups and new entrants, which grabbed a good response. Some
prominent OEMs (viz. Bajaj Auto, Harley Davidson, Triumph, Volkswagen
group, Ford, Volvo, Jeep, Audi & others) opted to stay out of the show.
Within the PV space – new launches were made by MSIL – Swift and
Hyundai’s - Elite i20 while the concept vehicle on EV were displayed by
most of the OEMs. Within the 2-W space, the premiumisation trend
continued with a slew of 125 cc scooter launches & premium motorcycles.
Ashok Leyland unveiled its first electric bus that has swappable battery
option and is developed in partnership with the Sun Mobility.
New launches + EVs = make PV segment
MSIL’s new Swift with an attractive price point (| 4.99 lakh) was one of the
key highlights in terms of new launches. Further, MSIL is thinking ahead
on technology for the next generation and showcased two concepts -
FutureS (SUV) & e-Survivor (small electric off-roader). Hyundai’s Ioniq is
the first car to be offered in three electric versions – hybrid, plug-in-hybrid
and all-electric. It also launched Elite i20 at a price of | 5.34 lakh & | 6.73
lakh for the petrol and diesel variants, respectively. TML showcased two
concepts 1) H5X - new SUV that has a new impact design 2 and is built on
all new platform and is expected to be launched by Q4FY19E and 2) a
product on Alfa Arc platform – premium hatchback. The company also
unveiled the Nexon AMT variant, which will be up for sale in the next
couple of months. M&M showcased its Rexton G4, which is expected to
be launched in 2018 and the TUV Stinger concept. It also unveiled its
production ready eKUV100 apart from eVerito and e2o plus, which will
further strengthen its EV portfolio. Apart from that, Honda Cars launched
the new Amaze, CR-V, Civic while Toyota launched Yaris. The auto expo
2018 also saw the new brand entry in the country of Kia Motors, which will
start Indian sales after the commencement of its Andhra Pradesh plant in
mid-2019 that will have an initial capacity of 300,000 units per annum. The
company showcased the new Stinger Sport & all new SP SUV concept.
Nissan Leaf’s all electric – Joe received a good response and is one of the
four popular cars being sold in Europe.
Premiumisation trend seen in 2-W segment
The 2-W segment witnessed a premiumisation trend with new scooter
being launched in 125 cc segment and higher end motorcycle. HMCL
unveiled XPluse 200, which is the only adventure motorcycle in its class.
HMCL also marked its foray into the growing 125 cc scooter segment with
the launch of Duet and Maestro Edge. HMSI unveiled 11 new products,
including all-new 160cc motorcycle X-Blade that will be launched next
month & introduce the fifth generation Activa 5G. TVS Motors introduced
ethanol based - Apache RTR 200 Fi. It also unveiled – Zeppelin motorcycle
with 220 cc engine mated with patented Integrated Starter Generator (ISG
– claims to start motorcycle quicker) and Creon – a concept electric
scooter that offers 80 km range on a full charge & is powered by 3 Li-on
batteries than can produce 12 km of power. Apart from that 1) Suzuki
launched Burgman Street – 125 cc scooter, GSX S750 motorcycle, which
is its first sub 1000 cc big bike in India; 2) Piaggio Group launched Aprilia
SR 125 (scooter) at | 65,310 (ex-showroom, Pune) and Vespa Elettrica &
introduced mobile connectivity options for Vespa and Aprilia scooters.
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 16
RATING RATIONALE
ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns
ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them
as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional
target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
Sector view:
Over weight compared to index
Equal weight compared to index
Under weight compared to index
Index here refers to BSE 500
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 17
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Nishit Zota, MBA (Finance) and Vidrum Mehta, MBA (Finance) Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research
report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s)
or view(s) in this report.
Terms & conditions and other disclosures:
ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities
Limited is a Sebi registered Research Analyst with Sebi Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has
its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which
are available on www.icicibank.com.
ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking
and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts
and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.
The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and
meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without
prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current.
Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended
temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this
company, or in certain other circumstances.
This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This
report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial
instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their
receiving Nishit Zota, MBA (Finance) and Vidrum Mehta, MBA (Finance) this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or
strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment
decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The
recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities
accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk
Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are
not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment
in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in
respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned
in the report in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any
compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts
and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.
It is confirmed that Nishit Zota, MBA (Finance) and Vidrum Mehta, MBA (Finance) Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the
preceding twelve months.
Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month
preceding the publication of the research report.
Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject
company/companies mentioned in this report.
It is confirmed that Nishit Zota, MBA (Finance) and Vidrum Mehta, MBA (Finance) Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.
ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.
We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution,
publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities
described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and
to observe such restriction.
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution,
publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities
described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and
to observe such restriction.
The company has been received a mandate from Mahindra and Mahindra. The report is prepared based on publicly available information.