History of the Climate Negotations

Jennifer L. Morgan

WWF

September 2005

Role of the Science - IPCC

• All along the process, the IPCC Assessment Reports have played a crucial role in providing the basis for negotiations• Continues to be under attack due to this pivotal

role

Brief history of the far past

• UN Framework Convention on Climate ChangeARTICLE 2

Ultimate objective to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system ... within a time frame sufficient to allow:

• ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change• ensure that food production is not threatened • enable economic development to proceed in a

sustainable manner

Brief history of the far past

• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change• Divided the world in two – Annex I and non-Annex I

• Industrialised countries• „Developing countries“ – G77&China

– OPEC– AOSIS– China– Africa

– Etc etc

Brief history of the far past

• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change• Annex I adopted a voluntary „aim“ to return emissions to

1990 levels by 2000• Annex I will „take the lead“• „Common but differentiated responsibility“• All will do national communications but at different

speeds and level of detail• All will implement policies• Review of the adequacy of commitments

COP1 1995

• Article 4.2 (a) and (b) – the voluntary “aim” is inadequate

• Berlin Mandate to launch the next round of negotiations to be completed in 1997• Annex I to negotiate quantified emission limitation and

reduction obligations (QELROs)• No new commitments for developing countries

COP2 1996

• IPCC Second Assessment Report came in• Declaration on the IPCC footnoting a few countries that

were recalcitrant• Clinton Administration stated support for targets and

timetables approach• EU moved from Policies and Measures to Targets and

timetables

COP 3 KYOTO 1997

• Absolute Mandatory Targets and Timetables for Annex I• 5.2 % below 1990 levels by 2008-2012• 6 gases• Framework on Sinks but no details, offsetting role• Flexible mechanisms (USA)

• Emissions trading• Joint Implementation• Clean Development Mechanism

COPs4-7 Finalising the rules

• Complex set of negotiations on how the various flexible mechanisms should work

• Sinks – which activities, how much for whom• CDM – what kinds of projects, how to get them going etc• Reporting requirements• Accounting framework – how to count it and monitor it• Compliance mechanism – Binding or not, how to make it work

The Hague (6), Bonn (6bis) and Marrakech (7)

• November 2000 Collapse in The Hague while wait to see who the next US President will be….

• March 2001 Bush rejects Kyoto• Breaks campaign pledge to cap CO2 from power plants• Cites economic unfairness and China and India not having to do

anything as key reasons• Commits, after much pressure, in Goteborg EU-US Summit not to

block efforts on the Kyoto Protocol

• John Howard follows shortly thereafter but announces they will meet their target

The Hague, Bonn and Marrakech

• July 2001 Countries come together in Bonn and agree to move forward without the US „A Day for Multi-lateralism“

• November 2001 Countries finalise complex rules in Marrakech Accords

• Meanwhile the Bush Administration sets intensity target and beings to create a series of technology partnerships as an „alternative“ to Kyoto

Entry into force

• Major effort especially in Canada, Japan and Russia with different strategies in each country

• February 16th, 2005 entered into force• Montreal is the first meeting of the Kyoto Protocol

AND COP11 of the UNFCCC• Adopt all the decisions about the Kyoto Protocol• Launch the next round of negotiations on the post-2012

regime

Thank you!

morgan@wwf.de