historical discontinuities within coal gasification ... · copyright © - sasol-lurgi technology...
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Copyright © - Sasol-Lurgi Technology Company 2005
Historical Discontinuities within Coal Gasification Technology as
Precursors for Future Developments
PS BaumannSasol-Lurgi Technology Company (Pty) Ltd.
Gasification Technologies CouncilSan Francisco October 2005
Copyright © - Sasol-Lurgi Technology Company 2005
Presentation overview…
Introduction
Theoretical Framework
Assessing a ‘coal revival’
Conclusion
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An energy landscape in flux…
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Transitions anticipated…
Marchetti, C. 2000. From Carbon to Hydrogen: An Ecological Breakthrough via Large Energy Infrastructure. Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
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Coal has many applications…..
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Questions…..
Is the apparent global revival in coal reflected in the dynamics of coal gasification technology?
Is the technology relevant?
What were the drivers for historical discontinuities within the adoption of the technology?
Ephemeral or sustainable?
Are these drivers present in current developments?Where are the current markets?
Where are the next developments expected to originate from?
Where are the future opportunities?
Copyright © - Sasol-Lurgi Technology Company 2005
Presentation overview…
Introduction
Theoretical Framework
Assessing a ‘coal revival’
Conclusion
Copyright © - Sasol-Lurgi Technology Company 2005
The history of coal….
Coal used in China as early as 1500 BCWood shortages in England & France enabled first transition
Increased demand fueled mining developmentMining required improved haulageAdvent of steam engine
Coal fueled industrial revolution – Century of “King Coal”Introduction of crude oil & natural gas
Internal combustion engine annexes transportation marketNatural gas becomes dominant space heating fuel
Coal today has only two primary marketsElectricity productionSteel Industry
DAEMEN, J.J.K. 2004. History of Coal Industry. Elsevier Encyclopedia of Energy vol. 1.
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History of Gasification…
Cryogenic Air Separation
1920
Sasol I
1952
Sasol II
1973
London Town Gas
1812 1980’s
Cheap Oil
First pressurized gasification patent
1887
Sasol III
1978Higman, C. & Van der Burgt, M. 2003 Gasification. United States of America: Elsevier.
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Assessing a ‘coal revival’…
Sassin, W., Hoffmann, M. & Sadnicki, M. 1977. Medium-term Aspect of a Coal revival: Two Case Studies. Laxenberg: International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis.
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t0
2. Technology Trends
Time
Assessments model….
Raw material trends
Consumption trends
Technology Trends
S-curve analysis
Identify discontinuities
Historical driver assessment
Extended IIASA model
Forward looking assessment
Case Studies:
‘Emerging China’
‘Lumbering India’
Key Drivers
t0
3. Historical Driver Assessment1. Raw Material Trends
Time
1. Raw Material Trends
Time
Key Drivers
t0
4. Forward-looking Assessment
Copyright © - Sasol-Lurgi Technology Company 2005
Presentation overview…
Introduction
Theoretical Framework
Assessing a ‘coal revival’
Conclusion
Copyright © - Sasol-Lurgi Technology Company 2005
Extended IIASA model….
Copyright © - Sasol-Lurgi Technology Company 2005
Presentation overview…
Introduction
Theoretical Framework
Assessing a ‘coal revival’
Conclusion
Copyright © - Sasol-Lurgi Technology Company 2005
Results…feedstock trendsCoal consumption
Global Coal Consumption, 1970 - 2025
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1990 2000 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
Mill
ion
Shor
t Ton
s
Reference case High growth Low growth
Energy Information Administration (EIA): Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy. 2003. International Energy Outlook 2003. Washington DC, USA.
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Global Gasification Technology Activities
050
100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800850
1925
1938
1942
1946
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
Year
Num
ber o
f Pr
ojec
tsResults…technology trend
Coal gasification
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• Isolation during ‘Apartheid years’• Nuclear as alternative precluded due to political pressure• Government provided incentives to establish Sasol as
strategic objective
5. Government incentives in support energy security and energy self-sufficiency
•Fourth largest exporter of coal•Government investment in Eskom coal infrastructure•Well established mining and road / rail industry
4. Existence of established coal infrastructure
•Major reserves in Mpumalanga, 150km from Gauteng •Gauteng is economic centre of South Africa•In excess of 500 kilometers from coastal port
3. Location advantage – close proximity to market
•World’s seventh largest coal producer•P/R coal ~ 225 years•P/R oil ~ 2.3 years•P/R gas < 0 years•High ash content coal •Very low cost coal producer
2. Access to large reserves of low cost, low quality coal.
•Historical GDP growth ~ 2%•Energy intensive economy ~ 1.14% of global energy
consumption•Produce only 42% of own daily energy requirements
1. Region should be a net importer of energy
South AfricaKey Driver
Key Drivers from the South African Experience
Results…historical drivers
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Results…historical driversLessons from South Africa
5. Government incentives in support energy security and energy self-sufficiency.
Socio-political drivers3
2. Access to large reserves of low cost, low quality coal. 3. Location advantage – close proximity to market.4. Existence of established coal infrastructure
‘Attraction Potential’ of coal2
1. Region should be a net importer of energy‘Energy Gap’1
Key Driver / EnablerExtended IIASA FrameworkNo
Key Drivers for Coal Based Energy System from the South African Perspective
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Results…current developments
•Energy security is top priority in current 15 year energy plan•Governments seeks to protect coal industry as major employer •Proven case studies of tax incentives to coal based ventures
5. Government incentives in support energy security and energy self-sufficiency
•Coal accounts for more than 44% of GDP•Thousands of mines•Benefit of large scale, strategic infrastructure investment by
government in major coal producing areas
4. Existence of established coal infrastructure
•Major reserves in North & West China•North & West are targeted for major economic upliftment•In excess of 500 kilometers from coastal port
3. Location advantage – close proximity to market
•World’s largest coal producer•P/R coal ~ 111 years•P/R oil ~ 20 years•P/R gas ~ 46 years•High ash content coal •Natural gas more expensive than coal-derived gas
2. Access to large reserves of low cost, low quality coal.
•Became net importer of oil in 1993.•Requires equivalent imports of 5.56 mil bbl/day•Expected to rise to more than 9.4 mil bbl/day by 2025
1. Region should be a net importer of energy
ChinaKey Driver
Case Study 1: Assessment of Key Drivers in Chinese Context
Source: United States DO E: China Brief (2004:1)
Econom ic Developm ent M ajor Coal Reserves
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Results…forward looking perspective
•New Singh administration has adopted strategy to pursue energy security
•Regional politics put external supplies at risk•Governments seeks to protect coal industry is major employer
5. Government incentives in support energy security and energy self-sufficiency
•Coal in industry already meets 66% of country’s energy needs•Established rail and road infrastructure •Benefit of former colonial investment by Brittan
4. Existence of established coal infrastructure
•Most large reserves are inland in Bihar, West Bengal & Madhya Pradesh•Major economic centers of New Delhi and Hyderabad are in close
proximity
3. Location advantage – close proximity to market
•World’s 3rd largest producer of coal•P/R coal ~ 236 years•P/R oil ~ 18 years•P/R gas ~ 30 years•High ash content, low calorific vale coal already importing higher quality
coal
2. Access to large reserves of low cost, low quality coal.
•All indigenous oil supplies due to be exhausted by 2012 without new discoveries
•Current imports 1.4 mil bbl/day•Oil imports projected to be 3.5 mil bbl/ day by 2020
1. Region should be a net importer of energy
IndiaKey Driver
Case Study 2: Assessment of Key Drivers in Indian Context
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Current Sasol-Lurgi Activities….
ChinaUSA
South Africa
Germany
Current SLTCActivities
Coal Beneficiation
Liquid Fuels & Chemicals
Liquid Fuels & Chemicals
IGCCSNG
Reduction Gas