hilltop decorrelated fund september 2013 factsheet
TRANSCRIPT
© 2013 Hilltop Fund Management LLP | Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority | +44 (0)20 7788 7799 | www.hilltop.co.uk 1
Underlying Portfolio fund* Headline strategy weightingATP Equity long/short non-directional 10.7%SAC Volatility arbitrage 9.6%RAB Tradefinance 9.3%CRA Equity long/short non-directional 9.1%FJE Activist credit 8.6%RDC Equity derivative arbitrage 8.6%PGD Equity long/short non-directional 8.5%LOP Long/short convertibles 7.5%NNM Long/short dividend futures 7.4%FSP Relative value commodity 6.5%CBK Volatility arbitrage 6.1%SEK Activist micro-cap equity 5.7%TCC Equity long/short non-directional 5.2%IAH Fixed income arbitrage 4.6%TEM Long/short mortgages 4.1%WTH Long/short commodity 4.1%SUT Long/shortcommodityequities 3.2%COK Macrovolatility 3.0%
* Codes for internal use only
The Hilltop Decorrelated FundDelivering decorrelated returns in a highly correlated environment
TheHilltopDecorrelated Fund enjoyed a strongmonth in September gaining 1.3%. Fifteen of our underlyingmanagers delivered positive returns versus just three that were negative. No funds performed outside of expectations. We added two strategies during the month, both of which are excellent examples of what we look for in our managers: both can articulate a compelling opportunity set and edge (something, which in our experience, very few can do); both deliver consistently non-correlated returns quite independent of how financial markets are performing; both can evidence a history of delivering highly asymmetric returns; and both are highly liquid. We are excited about these new additions and expect to add to these positions over the coming months. The comprehensive portfolio review, which we have referred to in the last two factsheets, is nearly complete and will likely lead to two or three further changes before year end.
Monthly perf (%)* Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD2013 -0.8 0.3 0.1 0.5 -1.0 -0.2 0.5 -0.4 1.3 0.42012 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.5 1.0 0.8 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 2.7 9.72011 2.6 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.0 1.2 2.2 -0.4 2.0 0.4 3.6 4.2 23.22010 0.1 2.7 0.6 1.7 1.5 0.1 0.5 3.1 1.0 2.5 0.8 1.7 17.52009 2.7 -0.3 1.4 2.3 2.6 0.3 1.8 0.2 1.9 2.1 3.6 1.1 21.72008 2.3 -0.3 -1.5 0.5 2.9 1.4 -0.3 0.3 -0.7 5.1 3.0 1.8 15.0* Pro forma results are shaded in grey. Results are shown net of all fees and costs assuming a fund size of $20m excluding any redemption fees.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-6%
0%
6%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012The Hilltop Decorrelated Fund MSCI World IndexHFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index HFRI FoF Composite Index
2013$0
$250
$100
Risk metrics (January 2008 – September 2013)
0 to 2 2 to 4-2 to 0 4 to 6-4 to -2-6 to -4% returns
Num
ber o
f mon
ths
0
10
20
30
40
NAV impact per fund Profit/loss ratio = 8.3x
0%
-0.4%
0.4%3 funds down, avg contribution
per fund -0.07%
15 funds up, avg contribution per fund +0.12%
WTH COK
EE E E E E E E E E EE E
E
SUTCBK RDCTEM RAB FJE NNM IAH TCC SEK FSP PGDSAC ATP LOPCRA
2010 2011 2012High correlation Medium correlation Low correlation
2013-1
0
1
Distribution of returns
Contribution analysis (September 2013)
Rolling 24-mth correlation with MSCI World
Historical performance
Growth of $100 since inception
Asset allocation Length of track record
Liquidity AUM ($m)
Portfolio characteristics (as at September 2013)Portfolio snapshot
Monthly (76%)
Quarterly (24%)
R
e d u c i ng
Cash (5%)Bonds/FI (4%) Mortgages (3%)
Volatility (15%)
Equities (46%)Commodities(8%)
Credit (12%)
Lending (7%)
>9yrs (22%)
>2yrs<5yrs (57%) >5yrs<9yrs (21%)
D
e c li n i ng
>1bn (10%)
<50 (26%)
>100<200 (9%)
>200<500(19%)
>500<1bn(17%)>50<100
(19%)
D
e c li n i ng
The pros and cons of ‘back-tests’
Never seen a bad ‘back-test’? Neither have we. Discounting pro forma results is sober – that said, this portfolio is clearly able to deliver excellent returns with: a lack of down months, low correlation and low (c.5%) volatility, which we are confident can be maintained. See overleaf for more guidance.
Decor-related Fund*
HFR FoF Composite
HFR Fund Weighted
CompositeMSCI World
Total return 123.1% -2.6% 13.8% -2.8%
Compound annual 15.0% -0.5% 2.3% -0.5%
Annual volatility 4.6% 6.2% 7.4% 19.9%
Downside deviation¥ 1.3% 5.5% 5.8% 15.5%
Max drawdown -1.8% -21.4% -20.1% -52.7%
Sharpe ratio¥ 2.6 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2
Sortino ratio¥ 9.3 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2
% positive periods 79.7% 59.4% 60.9% 50.7%
Average gain 1.6% 1.1% 1.5% 4.5%
Average loss -0.5% -1.6% -1.8% -4.4%
Skewness 0.5 -1.4 -0.8 -0.7
¥Assumesminimumacceptablereturnof3%.
Uses actual fund duration data except for two funds which use strategy duration.
September 2013 1.3%eAn estimate, based on actual results from 4/18 funds and an estimate from 14/18 funds
© 2013 Hilltop Fund Management LLP | Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority | +44 (0)20 7788 7799 | www.hilltop.co.uk 2
ISIN: GI000A1J6ZB9 (USD) GI000A1T87X1 (GBP) Bloomberg: HTDCBC2 TL
Target returnsAn average of 10-12% p.a. net of feesover a three-year period
Expected volatilityLess than 5%
Correlation targetA maximum of 0.4 to the MSCI WorldIndex over any three-year period and on average closer to zero
Investment liquidity75% of AuM invested in funds withmonthly redemption or better
LeverageMaximumof33%long-term and 10% short-term
Target size$500m
Share classUSD (£ and € to follow)
Fund domicile / typeGibraltar / Experienced Investor Fund
Minimum investment$10k if invested via a life wrapper, $ equivalent of €50k if advised by an IFA, €100k if investing directly
Fund liquidityMonthly
Redemption notice45 days’ notice
FeesInitial fee: none Management fee: 1.75%Performance fee: 10% above HWM with3%trigger Redemption fee: 5% reducing
Fund managerHilltop Fund Management LLP
AuditorsDeloitte, Gibraltar
CustodianRoyal Bank of Canada
AdministratorHelvetic Fund Administration
Legal advisersEversheds LLP, Hassans International
ContactCressida St Aubyn, Investor Relations [email protected]
Distribution partnerThe Synergy Partnership +60323010930
Hilltop’s Portfolio Manager, Rory Hills, started his career in financial markets in 1986 and for 27 years has maintained an on-going and detailed engagement with a great many fund managers employing a wide range of investment strategies.
Since 2002, Rory has focused on selecting hedge funds for potential inclusion in fund of hedge fund (FoHF) portfolios,
first at Dexion Capital where he also held in the region of 1,000 meetings with FoHFs and for the past three years at Hilltop. This has given him tremendous insight into the hedge fund industry. During this time Rory has demonstrated a talent for recognising exceptional investment managers and strategies,forexample12ofthe13fundshewasassociated
with during the credit crisis (Jul ‘07 to Feb ‘09), either to represent to investors and/or for personal investment, were upintheperiod-halfofthembymorethan30%.
This combination of long-standing experience in respect of understanding asset management strategies; a real appreciation of what does and does not work within FoHFs; together with a proven ability to identify distinctive, value-added hedge fund strategies, is the ideal grounding for managing the Hilltop Decorrelated Fund.
Investment thesis
Investment approach
Who are Hilltop, and why listen?
Most liquid investments (and plenty that are illiquid too) are heavily influenced by how “risk assets” are performing (for which the MSCI World Index is an excellent proxy) and consequently tend to be highly correlated to one another. The obvious exception is ‘highly rated’ government bonds but these look expensive, yield almost nothing and what can be considered ‘highly rated’ is a
moveable feast creating a ‘credit’ element to owning government bonds which previously did not exist.
By investing in a range of ‘low correlation’ strategies (those seeking to deliver returns independent of market directionality), the Hilltop Decorrelated Fund has been designed to deliver the stable, decorrelated return profile sought by so many investors.
To achieve its targets Hilltop adopts a multi-manager approach investing in ten to 15 hedge fund strategies, across the globe, which we are convinced can deliver decorrelated returns on a sustainable basis. It is an important feature of our approach that we are not making any ‘macro calls’ and – with rare exceptions – neither are the managers we are investing with. This is partly because we do not believe anyone has an edge in making such calls and partly because even if they did, they would wish to be highly correlated in a bull market which runs counter to
our ambition of being decorrelated at all times (it is entirely possible to be up in a bull market without being correlated). Our preference is for managers pursuing a clearly defined opportunity set and with the requisite investment skills to exploit it. Whilst, on occasion, this could include managers operating in unconventional areas the primary focus is on managers operating in mainstream asset classes (equities, fixed income, FX and commodities) but in unusual and/or distinctive ways. The fund will not invest in managers with less than a 2 ½ year track record.
27 yrs’dialogue
with fundmanagers
11 yrs’hedge fundexperience
c.1,800single
managersreviewed
c.1,000meetings
withFoHFs
Optimal background for a FoHF managerRory Hills’ key highlights
Target investor audience
The Hilltop Decorrelated Fund is targeted at investors seeking consistent returns with low volatility, very limited drawdowns and which are genuinely decorrelated to equity markets even in moments of financial crisis.
Whilst Hilltop believes this return profile is attractive at any point in the investment cycle, the current environment of low interest rates and increased correlations amongst asset classes makes it particularly compelling.
The pro forma results presented overleaf need to be properly qualified because, although the results of the underlying funds are real and reflect the actual mix that the invested portfolio will have at inception, the portfolio was not in existence prior to its launch on 1 October 2012. Its selection is inevitably influenced, at least to some degree, by past performance. Nonetheless, there are useful interpretations which we can draw from the data though it is important to understand which type of metrics may provide a reasonable guide to future performance and which may not. Return metrics should be most significantly discounted as it is these which are most heavily affected by the benefit of performance hindsight and it is inevitable that some funds will fail to deliver in the future the returns they have delivered in the past. However, we can say from the data that as a combination,
this group of funds is very capable of delivering excellent returns. In respect of ‘risk’ metrics, we do believe quite a lot can be read into the volatility of the pro forma results because, whilst future performance at the sub-fund level may look different from how it did in the past, the range of monthly returns should not (this being a core part of Hilltop’s analysis). Similarly, we believe a good deal can be garnered from the pro forma in respect of the future correlation profile of this portfolio. It is a central part of our analysis that these funds are able to deliver returns uncorrelated to each other as well as risk assets in general and we expect this portfolio to exhibit the same level of low correlation in the future as the pro forma has shown in the past. Of particular note is that this data categorically disproves the fallacy that a portfolio of non-correlated funds will ‘cancel each other out’.
How to interpret the pro forma results in this document
This document does not constitute or form part of, and may not be used for the purpose of, an offer or solicitation to anyone in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorised or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Shares in the Hilltop Decorrelated Fund (the “Fund”) will not be offered to the general public. This document may not be distributed in any jurisdiction where it is unlawful to do so. A subscription for shares in the Fund may only be made in reliance on the private placement memorandum and relevant supplement of Hilltop Funds PCC Limited by persons who are eligible to subscribe as set out in such documents.While the information in this document has been prepared in good faith, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted by the Fund or Hilltop Fund Management LLP (“Hilltop”) or by any of their respective members, officers, employees or agents in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this document and any such liability is expressly disclaimed. In particular, but without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing, no representation or warranty is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of any future projections, management estimates, prospects or returns contained in this document. Actual results may vary from estimates.
Hilltop is not acting for any recipient of this document. Hilltop is not responsible to such a recipient for providing protections afforded to clients of Hilltop and Hilltop is not advising such a recipient in respect of investing in Hilltop Funds PCC Limited. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.The ‘pro-forma’ results in this document are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of the historical data of the intended underlying fund investments utilised by the Fund at its inception and in the same mix at the launch date of the Fund. There is no assurance that the Fund will be able to invest in the intended underlying funds at launch and/or at the level intended. There is also no assurance that the Fund would have achieved the returns shown prior to August 2012 and the pro-forma returns are shown for illustrative and informational purposes only and should not be construed as an indicator of future performance of the Fund or any other fund managed by Hilltop. Pro-forma returns do not represent actual trading and may not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on any decision-making if the portfolio were actually being managed. The pro-forma returns also assume that the Fund would have been able to purchase the securities recommended by the model and that the markets were sufficiently liquid to permit this trading. Hilltop has clients other than the Fund and results across clients may differ materially.
Disclaimer