Higher Education and Economic Development

in Africa: Herana OneMakerere University

CHETAugust 2012

2

The Project and Context

• To use a set of analytical concepts to try and better understand the complex interactions between national economic/education policies and higher education system development

• To learn from some OECD countries who had been successful in linking HE and economic growth

• To use 8 African countries as contexts for the study

• To develop an empirical methodology to operationalise the concepts

• Do not assert that the primary/only role for higher education is development

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Higher Education Research and Advocacy Network Africa

4

HERANA Structure

HERANAHigher Education Research & Advocacy Network

in Africa

RESEARCH ADVOCACY

Higher Education and DevelopmentInvestigating the complex relationships between higher education and economic development, and student democratic attitudes in Africa

The Research-Policy NexusInvestigating the relationship between research evidence and policy-making in selected public policy sectors in South Africa

University World News (Africa)Current news and in-depth investigations into higher education in Africa

The HERANA GatewayAn internet portal to research on higher education in Africa

Nordic Masters in Africa (NOMA)Collaborative research training by the Universities of Oslo, Makerere, Western Cape, and CHET

FUNDERSCarnegie, Ford, Rockefeller, Kresge, DFID, Norad

HERANA 2: Carnegie, Ford, NORAD

• Three successful (OECD) systems investigated:◦ Finland (Europe), South Korea (Asia), North Carolina (US)

• Africa◦ Botswana – University of Botswana ◦ Ghana – University of Ghana◦ Kenya – University of Nairobi ◦ Mauritius – University of Mauritius◦ Mozambique – Eduardo Mondlane◦ South Africa – Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University◦ Tanzania – University of Dar es Salaam◦ Uganda – Makerere University

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The Case Studies

Higher education studies – Peter Maassen and Nico Cloete Development economist – Pundy Pillay (UWC)Sociology of knowledge – Jo Muller (UCT), Johann Mouton (US)Data analysis - Ian Bunting (DoE), Charles Sheppard (NMMU)Researchers – Tracy Bailey (CHET), Gerald Ouma (Kenya & UWC),

Romulo Pinheiro (Oslo), Patricio Langa (Mozambique & UCT), Samuel Fongwa (Cameroon, UWC)External commentators• Manuel Castells (USC, Open University, Barcelona)• John Douglas (CHES, Berkeley)Makerere contributors• Prof. Vincent Ssembatya (Director, Quality Assurance)• Dr Florence Nakaywa (Director, Planning)• Prof. Baryamureeba (Acting VC)

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Project team

A substantial body of academic and technical literature provides evidence of the relationship between informationalism, productivity and competitiveness for countries, regions and business firms. But, this relationship only operates under three conditions: information connectedness, organizational change in the form of networking; and enhancement of the quality of human labour, itself dependent on education and quality of life. (Castells and Cloete, 2011)

The structural basis for the growing inequality, in spite of high GDP growth rates in many parts of the world, is the growth of a highly dynamic, knowledge-producing, technologically advanced sector that is connected to other similar sectors in a global network, but it excludes a significant segment of the economy and of the society in its own country. The lack of human development prevents what Manuel Castells calls the ‘virtuous cycle’, which constrains the dynamic economy. (Castells and Cloete, 2011)

Connecting growth to human development – trickle down doesn’t work.

Key connectors are education (Higher Education) and ICT.7

Economic Growth and Human Development

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita versus Human Development Index (HDI)

Country GDP per capita (PPP, $US) 2007 GDP ranking HDI Ranking

(2007)GDP ranking per capita minus HDI

ranking

Botswana 13 604 60 125 -65

Mauritius 11 296 68 81 -13

South Africa 9 757 78 129 -51

Chile 13 880 59 44 +15

Costa Rica 10 842 73 54 +19Taiwan (China)

Ghana 1 334 153 152 1

Kenya 1 542 149 147 2

Mozambique 802 169 172 -3

Uganda 1 059 163 157 6

Tanzania 1 208 157 151 6

Finland 34 256 23 12 11

South Korea 24 801 35 26 9

USA 45 592 9 13 -4

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The relationship between scientific excellence and economic development

JapanGermany

UKItaly

Korea

BrazilArgentina

Egypt

Tunisia

United States

South Africa

India

China

Australia

Mexico

Influence of Scientific Research

Econ

omic

dev

elop

men

t

GDP per capita (current US$) Predicted GDP per capita (current US$)

High

Low

Low High

Data source: Thomson Reuters InCitesTM (21 September 2010); The World Bank Group (2010)

(R = 0.714, P = 0.218)(R = 0.961, P = 0.002)*

CountryStage of

development (2009-2010)

Gross tertiary education

enrolment rate (2008)

Quality of education

system ranking (2009-2010)

Overall global competitive

ranking (2010-2011)

Ghana

Stage 1: Factor-driven

6 71 114Kenya 4 32 106Mozambique 2 81 131Tanzania 2 99 113Uganda 5 72 118

BotswanaTransition from

1 to 2 20 48 76

Mauritius Stage 2: Efficiency-driven

26 50 55South Africa 18 130 54Finland

Stage 3: Innovation-driven

94 6 7South Korea 98 57 22United States

82 26 4

Participation rate and development indicators

Finland, South Korea, North Carolina (USA)• As part of reorganising their ‘mode of production’, they developed a

(pact) around a knowledge economy model (high skills training, research and innovation)

• Close links between economic and education planning• High participation rates with differentiation• Strong ‘state’ steering (different methods)• Higher education linked to regional development• Responsive to the labour market• Strong coordination and networks

Pundy Pillay (2010): Linking higher education to economic development: Implications for Africa from three successful systems. (CHET)

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Some implications from 3 successful systems

Higher education’s role in / contribution to development is influenced by three inter-related factors:

• The nature of the pact between the university leadership, political authorities, and society at large

• The nature, size and continuity of the academic core

• The connectedness and coordination of national and institutional knowledge policies to the academic core and to development projects is crucial

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The analytical premises

13

The Pact

A ‘pact’ is defined as a fairly long-term cultural, socio-economic and political understanding and commitment between universities, university leadership, political authorities and society at large of the identity or vision of universities, what is expected of universities, and what the rules and values of the universities are.

Pacts are not only between society and higher education, but also important within the institution.

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Defining the ‘Pact’

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Conceptual Framework: Government – Institutions - Market

Government departments: Education; Science and Technology; Treasury; Industrial Development; Research Councils

Notions and policies

Coordination mechanisms

Government

StudentsBusiness

CommunityFundersBusiness

External Groupings

Leadership/planning

Faculties

Academics

University

Pact Academic

CoreConnectedne

ss

1. Narrative, intent and structures for the Role of HE in development

2. Visions and plans, i.e. Development Visions (2025-2035)

3. Policies – development, science and technology, higher education

4. Methods and structures for co-ordination

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The pact: National-level indicators

Role for knowledge and universities in developmentNational rating = 4/6

Concept of a knowledge economy features in the national development plan

3 StrongAppears in a number of policies

2 WeakOnly mentioned in one policy

1 AbsentNot mentioned at all

A role for higher education in development in national policies and plans

3 PrevalentClearly mentioned in development policies

2 Weak 1 Absent

University of Makerere rating = 5/6Concept of a knowledge economy features in university policies and plans

3 StrongFeatures strongly in strategic plan and/or research policy/strategy

2 WeakVague reference in strategic plan or research policy

1 AbsentNot mentioned at all

A role for higher education in development in national policies and plans

3 Institutional policy

2 Embedded in strategic plan, research policy

1 AbsentNo formal policies

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Notions of the role of higher education in development

Connectedness

University not part of national

development model/strategy

University part of national

development model/strategy

Knowledge

No or marginal role for new knowledge

in development model

Acillary Instrument

Central role for new knowledge

in development model

Self-governance Engine

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Coordination of knowledge policies

INDICATORS Max. score

Botswana Ghana Kenya Mauritius Moz. South

Africa Tanzania Uganda

NATIONAL LEVEL 9 3 3 6 7 4 6 4 3

Economic development and higher education planning are linked

3 1 1 2 3 1 2 1 1

Coordination and consensus building of government agencies involved in higher education

3 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1

Link between universities and national authorities

3 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1

1. At national level the importance of knowledge economy and the importance of higher education were rather weakly reflected in national policy statements

2. The Poverty Eradication Plan recognises the need for higher economic growth (currently around 6%) and human capital development and Science and Technology. Important to shift from higher education for social mobility and training the professions, to higher education as ‘engine” for development.

3. In contrast, at institutional level a much stronger reference to knowledge economy and the importance of the university in development in the strategic plan.

4. Regarding notions of the role of the university, at national level strong Instrumental expectation, while institutional level increasing support for engine of development (innovation) - faculty differences

5. Not strong enough incentives to translate ‘increasing support’ into action 20

The Pact in Uganda (1)

6. There did not seem to be a strong agreement between national and institutional levels that higher education is key to development – different discourses

7. Development aid agencies needs to become part of the Pact - while in their own countries there is a ‘engine of development’ notion, in Africa the universities are often regarded as ‘development agencies’, meaning a narrow ‘instrumental’ role

8. Poor policy coordination – the problem of Capacity and Agreement

9. In both the development of a Pact and Coordination, the National Council on Higher Education could play and important role to connect stakeholders - needs to be capacitated to do this in addition to other tasks

10. The importance of Institutional leadership stability – between institution and society and within the institution

11. The road pact!! 21

The Pact in Uganda (2)

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The Academic Core

• Burton Clarke refers to the ‘academic heartland’ and a ‘stronger steering core’

• The universities in the HERANA sample are public and ‘flagship’ universities which claim in mission statements that they:◦ have high academic ratings, ◦ are centres of academic excellence engaged in high quality

research and teaching◦ and contribute to development

• They are the key “knowledge institutions” in these countries

• Assumption: For a university to contribute to development it needs a strong academic core – universities are ‘weak ‘ development agencies, 23

The academic core

1. Increased enrolments in science, engineering and technology (SET) – AU regards SET as a development driver (importance and weakness of social sciences, humnaities and education)

2. Increased postgraduate (PG) enrolments – knowledge economy requires increasing numbers of workers with PG qualifications

3. Favourable academic staff to student ratio – workload should allow for research and PhD supervision

4. High proportion of academic staff with PhDs – high correlation (0.82 in South Africa) between doctorates and research output

5. Adequate research funding per academic – and from multiple sources

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Input indicators

1. High graduation rates in SET fields – not only must enrolments increase, but also graduate output

2. Increased knowledge production (doctoral graduates) – for reproduction of academic core, to produce academics for other universities and for demand in other fields

3. Increased knowledge production – research publications in ISI peer-reviewed journals (problem of counting ‘publication’s which is not the only knowledge output

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Output indicators

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Head count enrolments by major fields of study

Botswana 2001/2

Botswana 2009/102

Cape Town 2001/2

Cape Town 2009/10

Makerere 2001/2

Makerere 2009/10

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

22% 21%

41% 41%

16%

40%

27% 27%

26% 22%

19%

10%

51% 52%

33% 37%

65%50%

Science & technology Business & management Humanities and social sciences

Target = 40% enrolments in science & technology

Qualification levels of permanent academic staff members

50%

25%

25%

UDSM, Highest qualification level of permanent academic staff members

(2007)

DoctorateMastersOther

31%

52%

17%

Makerere, Highest qualification level of permanent academic staff members

(2007)

DoctorateMastersOther

58%30%

12%

UCT, Highest qualification level of permanent

academic staff members (2007)

DoctorateMastersOther

47%

42%

11%

Ghana, Highest qualification level of per-manent

academic staff members (2007)

DoctorateMastersOther

Research funding Research funding resources (in US$) available in 2007 to the academic staff members of each university.

UDSM Makerere Ghana UCT0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

3.3 3.11.4

29.7

Research income in 2007 per permanent academic staff member

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Doctoral enrolments (head count)

Botswana Cape Town Makerere Ghana0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

10

706

31 9216

783

41102

32

970

54110

51

1002

32

120

2001/2 2003/4 2005/6 2007/8

30

Doctoral graduates

Botswana Cape Town Makerere Ghana0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

4

86

1286

103

1696

182

18 20

3

142

30

116

178

55

17

2001/2 2003/4 2005/6 2007/8 2009/10

31

Research publication totals

Botswana Cape Town Makerere Ghana0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

78

700

73 6672

564

1077185

893

11868

120

1014

233

101

2001/2 2003/4 2005/6 2007/8

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Makerere: high-level knowledge outputs

2000/1 2001/2 2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/100

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

11 12 21 16 25 18 23 30 3855

72 73 76107

131 118139

233 230

338Doctoral graduates Research publications

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Ratios of high-level research outputs to permanent academics: averages for 2000/1 to 2007/8

Botswana Cape Town Makerere Ghana-0.100.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.001.101.20

0.01 0.15 0.02 0.020.12

1.14

0.11 0.09

Doctoral graduates Research publications

•Graph 1 offers summaries for the 15-year period 1996-2010. Doctoral enrolments were 1.3% of national total of 893 000 students in 2010.

South Africa: High-level inputs and outputs

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5164 55286394

77638790

9800 9939

11468

685 761 961 969 1104 1100 1182

1421

5622 5456 5936 6483 66608003 8353

9748

13449 1309814184 14673

15423 15809 1593616684

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Doctoral enrolments Doctoral graduates Research publications Permanent academics

Permanent academics

Doctoral enrolmentsResearch publications

Doctoral graduates

Graph 4 shows how the % of doctoral enrolments by race group changed between 1996 to 2010. African doctoral students rose from 13% in 1996 to 33% in 2004, and 44% in 2010.

Percentage of doctoral enrolments in race groupings

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13%

25%33%

41%44%

78%

62%55%

49%

42%

9%

13% 12% 10%14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1996 2000 2004 2008 2010

African White Coloured +Indian

AfricanWhite

Coloured+Indian

Enrolments   South African International Total

2007 7 195 2 853 10 0482008 6 959 3 035 9 9942009 7 213 3 316 10 5292010 7 841 3 749 11 590

2007 2008 2009 201011%

12%

13%

14%

15%

13%12%

13%

12%

13%

12%

14%

13%

South African PhD students graduation rate by nationality

South African International

Gra

duat

ion

Rate

 Graduates South AfricanInternationa

l Total2007 900 374 1 2742008 829 353 1 1822009 908 470 1 3782010 931 489 1 420

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

77% 75% 74% 72% 67%

23% 25% 26% 28% 33%

Norwegian Universities - PhD graduates by nationality

Norwegian International

Graduates  Norwegian International Total2007 789 241 10302008 937 308 12452009 851 297 11482010 858 326 11842011 889 438 1327

2007 2008 2009 20100%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

71% 70% 66% 66%

29% 30% 34% 34%

South African Universities – PhD graduates by nationality

South African International

It is important to note that the two countries produce almost the same number

of PhD graduates but that South Africa’s population is in the order of 48 million

whilst Norway’s population is 4.8 million

General:• None of the universities (except Cape Town) seem to have

moved from their traditional undergraduate teaching role

• Considerable diversity amongst input indicators, with postgraduate enrolments and inadequate research funds the weakest

• The strongest input indicators are manageable student-staff ratios (Except Ghana) and staff with doctorates (comparable to SA)

• On the output side, SET graduation rates are positive, but all institutions (except Cape Town) have low knowledge production

• From the weak knowledge production output indicators it seems the academic cores are not strong enough to make a sustainable contribution to development 37

Findings: Academic core (1)

• Makerere on the UP – dramatic increase in SET, doctorates and particularly ISI publications, but knowledge production from a very low base

• Major concern to increase the enrolment and graduation rate of doctorates (balance staff and young graduates, funding, post docs and “productive” departments

• • Incentive structure (double and triple teaching, consultancies

and bureaucracy in institutional and national research funds) do not encourage knowledge production

• Working on improving data definition, systematic institution-wide capturing and processing, and strengthen evidence-based strategic planning and leadership

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Findings: Academic core (Makerere)

• A focus should be to strengthen the academic cores of the ‘flagship’ universities

• Key areas to improve are:◦ masters throughput to PhDs◦ doctoral enrolments and graduation, with scholarships and

post docs◦ research funding and the incentives around research funding

• Examine incentives and address perverse incentives

• Consider an Africa Research Fund with some of the features of the European Research Fund

• Funders and governments must build conditions into consultancies that strengthen rather than weaken the academic core 39

General Implications: Academic core

HERANA Phase 2> There is a clearly identified need to improve

and strengthen the definition of performance indicators, as well as the systematic, institution wide capturing and processing (institutionalisation) of key indicators

> Capacity needs to be built about the analysis of data at both planning, management and leadership levels, and linking these analyses to planned reforms – at institutional and national levels

> Revitalising African higher education is amongst other things going to require more comparative, evidence based approaches than declarative missions and intentions

> Important role of National Commissions> Role of Incentives in Knowledge Production

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Books and reports1. Linking Higher Education and Economic Development: Implications for Africa

from three successful systems (Pillay)2. Universities and Economic Development in Africa: Pact, academic core and

coordination (Cloete, Bailey, Maassen)3. Universities and Economic Development in Africa: Key findings

(Cloete, Bailey, Bunting & Maassen)4. Country and University Case Studies: Botswana (Bailey, Cloete, Pillay)5. Country and University Case Studies: Ghana (Bailey, Cloete, Pillay)6. Country and University Case Studies: Kenya (Bailey, Cloete, Pillay)7. Country and University Case Studies: Mauritius (Bailey, Cloete, Pillay)8. Country and University Case Studies: Mozambique (Bailey, Cloete, Pillay)

9. Country and University Case Studies: South Africa (Bailey, Cloete, Pillay)

10. Country and University Case Studies: Tanzania (Bailey, Cloete, Pillay)11. Country and University Case Studies: Uganda (Bailey, Cloete, Pillay)

HERANA Publications: HE and Economic Development

HERANA Phase 2

> There is a clearly identified need to improve and strengthen the definition of performance indicators, as well as the systematic, institution wide capturing and processing (institutionalisation) of key indicators

> Capacity needs to be built about the analysis of data at both planning, management and leadership levels, and linking these analyses to planned reforms – at institutional and national levels

> Revitalising African higher education is amongst other things going to require more comparative, evidence based approaches than declarative missions and intentions

> Important role of National Commissions> Impact of engagement activities on the academic core> Role of Incentives in Knowledge Production

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