higher education commissionprr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/7894/1/thesis... · 2018. 7....

OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE

POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW

RESEARCH SUPERVISOR

Prof. Dr. Abdul Razzaq Ghumman

Member Faculty

Civil Engineering Department

UET Taxila

PREPARED BY

Irfan Yousuf

2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

Faculty of Civil & Environmental Engineering

University of Engineering and Technology

TAXILA, PAKISTAN

OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW

i | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

In the Name of ALLAH the most MERCIFUL and the BENEFICENT


ii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48


iii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO

MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY

FLOW

A Dissertation submitted in partial fulfiment of the requirements for the

degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Civil Engineering

Engr. Irfan Yousuf

2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

Prof. Dr. Abdul Razzaq Ghumman

Thesis Supervisor

Prof. Dr. Muhammad Ashiq Kharal Prof. Dr. Abdul Razzaq Ghumman External Examiner External Examiner

Civil Engineering Department National Institute of Civil Engineering

(NICE)

University of Engg. and Tech., Lahore National University of Science &

Technology (NUST)

Department of Civil Engineering

Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering

University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila, Pakistan


iv | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

DECLARATION

I, Irfan Yousuf, hereby state that my PhD thesis titled ―Optimally Locating the Small

Hydro Units to Maximize Power Production under Uncertainty Flow‖ is my own

work and has not been submitted previously by me for taking any degree from the

University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila or anywhere else in the

country/world. At any time if my statement is found to be incorrect even after my

Graduate, the university has the right to withdraw my PhD degree.

Irfan Yousuf

24th

February, 2017


v | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

PLAGIARISM UNDERTAKING

I solemnly declare that research work presented in the thesis titled ―Optimally

Locating the Small Hydro Units to Maximize Power Production under Uncertainty

Flow‖ is solely my research work with no significant contribution from any other

person. Small contribution.help wherever taken has been duly acknowledged and that

complete thesis has been written by me.

I understand zero tolerance policy of the HEC and University of Engineering and

Technology, Taxila towards plagiarism. Therefore, I as an Author of the above titled

thesis declare that no portion of my thesis has been plagiarized and any material used

as reference is properly referred/cited.

I undertake that if I am found guilty of any formal plagiarism in the above titled thesis

even after award of PhD degree, the University reserves the rights to withdraw/revoke

my PhD degree, and that HEC and the University has the right to publish my name on

the HEC/Univeristy Website on which, names of students are placed who submitted

plagiarized thesis.

Irfan Yousuf

24th

February, 2017


vi | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This research work has taken into consideration impacts of climate changes on water

resources as uncertainty in sizing, locating and decision making in site selection for

SHPPs taking Chitral, Pakistan as study area. Initially, historical climate data of

Chitral and hydrological data of Chitral River was analyzed that indicated that the

temperature between 1984-2013 had already increased by 0.8˚C and precipitation

between 1989-2013 had decreased by 4.7%.

Afterwards, future climate data (temperature and precipitation) was downscale using

LARS WG 5 Statistical Model from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under A1B

Emission Scenarios of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The data

indicated increase the precipitation in study area would decline during period 2011-30

and 2046-65, and would slightly improve during 2080-99 with variation in

precipitation pattern, whereas, temperature would continuously rise.

Subsequently, HEC-HMS hydrological model was used to determine future river

flows. Results indicated reduction trend in the future average annual water flows of

Chitral River by 16.83% in 2014-30, 25.03% in 2046-2065 and 22.02% in 2080-2099

as compared to average annual flows for the period 1989-2013.

Then, Chitral SHP was selected as optimal site using Multi-objective Decision

Making and Fuzzy Logic. This followed by designing SHPP that indicated that 49.6

MW would be appropriate size at the selected location based on 32% pe of Qdes and

Q‘n on FD Curve. Afterwards, impacts of variability of flows due to climate changes

on power production capacities were determined. Results indicated reduction in the

power generation capacities due to reduction in flows by 0.36%, 6.25% and 4.08%

during 2014-30, 2046-65, and 2080-99 respectively.

The research work concluded that climate change impacts should be taken into

account to optimally locate and size small hydropower plants to maximize power

production under uncertainty in flow.


vii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

PREFACE

Pakistan is a semi-arid country that has extreme climates i.e. very hot summer and

very cold winter. The geographical features of the country are diverse; the country

consists of high mountains (mountains systems in the North, center, North-West and

South-West), plateaus in the center, and South-West), plains, deserts and a long

coastline. Each geographic location is characterized with different climatic conditions;

some regions are very cold and some are very hot while some of them remain

moderate the whole year. However, the historical data indicates that the precipitation

in this region is also less as compared to adjoining areas. The country is blessed with

a river water system, which is the main source of meeting water requirements for

agriculture, and carries huge potential for generation of hydropower.

Because of diverse climatic conditions, the vulnerability index of climate change in

Pakistan is very high as compared to most of the countries around the globe. In recent

years, the country has faced climatic changes like increase in temperature, change in

precipitation pattern, weather shift, occurrence of floods and earthquakes etc. Pakistan

though is not the major contributor to the emissions that have resulted in creating

climate change, but owing to its high vulnerability index, the requirement for its

adaptation to new changes is very high.

The global phenomenon of climate change has affected the whole of Pakistan in a

different manner. Pakistan is facing worse climatic vulnerabilities that are causing

huge threats to its economy. Various climate changes like temperature variations,

precipitation quantity and intensity, precipitation pattern, relative humidity, solar

radiations have been recorded in Pakistan. These climate changes are causing

unexpected floods and droughts, extremities in the temperatures and giving rise to

relatively higher heat waves in summers. This is also causing snow-melt and glacier-

melt in the north, which is a major threat to the sweet water reserves of the country.

During the last decade, Pakistan has witnessed worse power crises. Despite economic

growth, the electricity generation, transmission and distribution capacity of the

country could not be enhanced due to various reasons. Eventually, the government is

finding it difficult to meet existing electricity demand. Due to this, power cuts and


viii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

rotational load shedding have become part of everyday life. Efforts are being made to

cut short the load shedding, but there is still a long way to go. Hydropower, which is a

source of clean, low cost, renewable energy was once major source of electricity in

the country and has potential of meeting electricity requirements of the country, could

not be developed at required pace, rather dependency on fossil fuel based power

generation increased. At the same time, Pakistan also has seen water scarcity crises.

Major contributors towards this dilemma are the global and regional climate changes

and indecisive policies, initiatives and programs to develop and construct water

storage facilities like large dams.

Pakistan mainly relies upon Indus River System for meeting water requirements in

agriculture and energy sector. The availability of flow in the Indus River System is

pivotal for sustainable economic growth, food security and reliable electricity supply.

The long term security of water availability and hydropower generation for Pakistan

depends upon continuous flow of the rivers of Indus Basin originating from Hindu

Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH). The HKH region is very susceptible to the effects

of climate change. The variability of flows in the rivers and streams and improbability

to predict future flows due to climate changes is making it difficult to make decision

for site selection for small-medium-large hydropower plants, work out and locate

appropriate probability of exceedance (pe) on the Flow-Duration (FD) Curve that

would enable optimally utilizing maximum available flow to generate electricity and

optimally size hydropower plants of all magnitudes including micro, mini, small,

medium and large.

In this research work, I have endeavoured to investigate a solution to the problems

stated above. During research work, I noticed that this is a gigantic task to suggest a

solution to this problem that could have global applicability. In due course of research

I found out that the pattern of impacts of climate changes varies considerably in

different river basins all over the globe; even, this varies within one region. Taking

into account more than one river basins not only required large span of time, but also

needing huge funding. I therefore took Chitral River in the Kabul Basin in Upper

Indus Region, Pakistan as study area to build on my case.


ix | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

This research work is unique as none of the researchers have so far touched upon the

identified issues. Further, to strengthen my hypothesis, I have used state-of-the-art

climate models, hydrological models and hydropower simulation models to model the

Chitral River and the selected sites at one time and study the impact of climate

changes over small hydropower generation. In due course of my research, I gained

inimitable knowledge, experience and understanding of climate changing scenarios

and their probable impacts, based on which, I built my thesis to propose solution to

the problem under discussion.

In this research work, I have attempted to cover every aspect to the extent possible,

but there can be a possibility that some aspects are not treated the way it should have

been which could probably be owing to inherent limitations. But, I feel confident that

through this research work I have achieved my objective and I am certain that this

piece of research will be useful for researchers, developers, policy makers and

investors alike.

Irfan Yousuf


x | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I am much thankful to Allah who bestowed me with knowledge, wisdom and courage

to complete this research work.

Though patterns of climate changes and their impacts on different aspects have been

studied globally as well as in different parts of Pakistan, various researchers also have

studied impacts of climate changes on river flow in Chitral River. Most of these

studies have focused on historical data, and future projections for river flow are not

made. Further, impacts of climate changes on small hydropower generation have not

been studied elsewhere. This research work is therefore unique and novel. In this

research work, future projections for flows in Chitral River were made using global

circulation models and hydrological model, and impacts on small hydropower plants

were studied based on the output. This research work also has suggested methodology

to size the small hydropower plants considering future projected flows. I am confident

that this research work will facilitate in developing small hydropower projects with

higher degree of confidence and ensuring better energy outputs in future under

confluence of climate changes.

Close supervision, technical assistance, guidance, sincere affection, moral support and

dedication are important ingredients for success in an endeavor. In my case, added

aspects like continuous push, strict follow up, increasing moral and temptation to

deliver also played a vital role in completing this research work. My trust in Allah and

His spiritual support and guidance has shown me path of success. I believe that Allah

chose me to carry out this research work and with His Will, I became able to

undertake this work. He showed me path and He created so many helping hands for

me that resulted even in turning the stones.

I give full credit to the family that has been a continuous support during course of my

research work. My family has remained as a strong pillar upon which I can

confidently lean and fight for my success. My father, Mr. Majid-ul-Hassan Yousuf

has been a source of inspiration, guidance, spiritual support and my temptation

towards success. His wisdom, intellect and knowledge always show me right path in


xi | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

darkness. My family has supported me in this research work and without them, this

success would not have been possible.

My supervisor, Prof. Dr. Abdul Razzaq Ghumman has been a key individual, without

whom, I feel, I would have never been able to undertake this research work. He has

showed his confidence in me to consider taking me under his supervision for this

research work, supervised me, and provided guidance, every kind of support and

temptation to undertake this research work. It was his strict follow-up that made me

accomplish various activities to conduct this research work in a timely manner. I

would also like to admit the support, guidance and confidence shown by Dr. Hashim

Nisar Hashmi, Professor, Civil Engineering Department, UET, Taxila, who helped me

in conceiving this research idea and being enrolled in this research work. His initial

support had played a vital role in my success during PhD studies.

Technical assistance and support in providing raw historical data was a key to run

model and carry out research work. The support of Mr. Naveed and Mr. Asif from

CDPC, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Karachi Office (for

meteorological data) and Mr. Muhammad Bilal from Water and Power Development

Authority (SWH-WAPDA) is memorable. They have been very kind in providing

required data as and when it was needed.

Dr. Muhammad Zia Ur Rahman Hashmi, Head Climate Changes Section in Global

Change Impact Study Centre (GCISC) has been a big support in this research work.

With his guidance and support, I learnt to run the global circulation models,

downscale data using LARS-WG and extract the results for the study area. His

support in writing research papers has been laudable.

I would also like to highlight moral support and mental encouragement showed by

Mr. Irfan Afzal Mirza, Ex-DG, AEDB / CEO, Renewable Resources (Pvt.) Ltd. He is

my mentor and he has always been there to support me in any way I needed. I would

also like to highlight support of Mrs. Sana Amin, CEO, EcoChange (Pvt.) Ltd. who

really helped me at a time when it was desperately needed in GIS modeling. Mr.

Mehroze Rafique, Assistant Director, NEPRA and Ms. Aymen Ayaz, Executive


xii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

Junior, AEDB are two more key persons among several others who have been a

helping hand in my research work.

I would also like to extend my gratitude, sincere thanks and appreciation to my

colleagues, friends, seniors, relatives and buddies who, in one way or the other, have

supported me during my research tenure.

I must state that at the time of completion of this research work, technical input,

assistance, support and encouragement of my supervisors, family, friends, colleagues

and relatives is unforgettable. I recognize all this support, kindness, sincerity,

affection and coaching from the core of my heart. Defiantly, all these affiliations and

expertise groomed my abilities to make this research work even better.


xiii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

DEDICATION

To Almighty Allah, without whose Will and Support, this research work would have

never been possible. To Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) my real mentor in life. To my

parents who encouraged me, guided me and always remained there to face this world.

Especially to my late mother, it is all because of her prayers and support that has

made this success a reality for me. I have faith that my mother keeps on praying for

my success even in the heaven which has transpired into achieving this goal which, in

actual, was her dream. To my wife, who is the true companion and best friend and a

real strength of my life. To my supervisor and teachers, who groomed me to learn

better and to contribute better using best of my abilities for the betterment of society.

And to all progenitors, friends, family members, colleagues and others who

participated, in one way or the other, for new horizons of knowledge and wisdom.


xiv | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

ABSTRACT

The scientific studies and various researches have indicated that global climate

change trend is resulting in changes in precipitation and temperature. Variations in

precipitation and temperature are threatening global fresh water resources. The

glaciers are melting and overall quantum of precipitation is decreasing due to which,

availability of fresh water is going to decline in future. In addition to this, due to

changes in precipitation patterns and increase in winter temperatures, the flow

patterns in rivers and streams are also altering. The variation in river flows is also a

point of concern for locating, sizing, designing, planning and operations of

hydropower plants.

Small hydropower is a promising source of clean energy that is sustainable,

affordable, economically viable and environmental friendly. Optimal performance of

the small hydropower plant and maximum possible utilization of flow to generate

electricity is dependent upon quantum of available flow throughout the year. Global

climate changes and their impacts, particularly on river and stream flows are making

it too difficult to ascertain the available flow. This is affecting decision-making

process for site selection for small hydropower plants, locate appropriate Probability

of Exceedance (pe) for design flow, size small hydropower plants based on design

flow and estimate power generation throughout the plant life. Due to this, it is

becoming difficult to optimally size small hydropower plants and predict their

performance during operations.

In this research work, future river flow of Chitral River was predicted under climate

change scenarios, mechanism was established to improve decision making in site

selection for small hydropower generation, locate appropriate pe for plant sizing, work

out optimal size of the small hydropower plants and estimate power production

capacity. Chitral River in Upper Indus Region, Pakistan is selected as study area for

the research work. Initially, it was intended to extend the scope of the research work

to upper Indus Basin, however, due to time constraint, data constraint and limitation

of funds, the focus was limited to Chitral River.


xv | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

In order to undertake this research work, historical data including climatic data of

Chitral for the period 1984-2013 was obtained from Pakistan Meteorological

Department and water flows data of Chitral River in Chitral for the period 1989-2013

was obtained from Water and Power Development Authority. This research work has

used LARS WG 5 Model to downscale future temperature and precipitation data from

MPEH5 Global Circulation Model (GCM) for a period up to 2099 under Special

Report of Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B and A2 as that were used by the

Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) under its fourth assessment

report of climate change published in 2007 i.e. AR4. For analysis, future projections

made under A1B scenario was used deeming that in future, efficient technologies will

be introduced, reliance upon fossil fuel based power generation will be reduced and

other supply options and end-use technologies including clean technologies will be

developed. HEC-HMS model was used to determine future river flows in Chitral

River. The historic and future river flows were used to size small hydropower plant

using RETScreen 4.1 model. Multiple Objective Decision Making Methodology

(MODM) was used to decide upon the optimum site and size of the small hydropower

plants.

The results of climate modeling under A1B scenario indicated that the precipitation in

Chitral is going to decline during the period 2011-30, 2046-65, and 2080-99,

however, during the period 2080-99 a slight improvement was seen as compared to

other two periods. The predictions for temperature under A1B scenario indicated

continuous rise during the period 2011-30, 2046-65, and 2080-99. Results of HEC-

HMS indicated a declining trend in the future average annual water flows of Chitral

River during the periods 2014-30, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099.However, during 2080-

99 a slight improvement in river flows as compared to 2014-30 and 2046-65 was

seen. This research determined that there would be 16.8% reduction in river flows

simulated for 2011-30, 25.0% for 2046-65 and 22.0% for 2080-99 as compared to

historical flows during 1989-2013. This trend was matching with the trend of

precipitation in the region.

The MODM was used in improving decision-making process for site selection for

small hydropower plants. For that purpose, four alternate small hydropower sites in

Chitral River, Chitral were analyzed taking into consideration climate, hydrology,


xvi | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

technological, environment and safety factors. Based on outcomes, the Chitral Small

Hydropower Site was selected as optimal site among the four selected alternatives at

Chitral River.

The historical and future predicted available flow data was used to determine impact

of variation of flows on power generation capacity of the small hydropower plant. The

analysis indicated that the declining trend of the flow in Chitral River will result in

reduction of power generation capacities i.e. there will be 0.36% impact on yearly

power generation due to river flow changes simulated for 2014-30, 6.25% for 2046-65

and 4.08% for 2080-99. It was inferred from the research that in order to optimally

utilize future available flow in rivers like Chitral River for power generation, the pe of

design flow on Flow Duration Curve (FD Curve) should be between 32-40%.

RETScreen 4.1 software was used to determine appropriate sizes of small hydropower

plants based on historical and future predicted flows. The outcomes were analyzed

using MODM for improved decision making in selecting optimal size of the small

hydropower plants. The results concluded that 49.60 MW would be the most optimal

size of the small hydropower plant that will produce maximum electricity under future

projected flows at the area under study.

This research work has presented a new dimension before the planners, designers and

decision makers and has recommended that while designing, locating and sizing small

hydropower plants the future predicted climate conditions and river flows should be

taken into account in addition to the historical records at a time when the decision-

making is done for locating and sizing small hydropower plants to ensure better

performance. With this, impacts of climate changes on water resources and climate

can be largely taken care of.


xvii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

ABBREVIATIONS AND NOTATIONS

Abbreviation Description

AEDB Alternative Energy Development Board

AHP Analytic Hierarchy Process

ANFIS Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

ANN Artificial Neural Network

AR4 Fourth assessment report of climate change published by IPCC

in 2007

AR5 Fifth assessment report of climate change published by IPCC in

2014

CCA Canonical Correlation Analysis

CCVI Climate Change Vulnerability Index

CDPC

CLIMSAVE Climate Change Integrated Assessment Methodology for

Cross-Sector Adaptation Vulnerability in Europe

CORDEX Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment

CR Customer Requirements

DBM Decision Based Matrix

DEM Digital Elevation Model

DM Decision Making / Decision Maker / Decision Matrix

DR Design Requirements

EBM Energy Balance Models

EOF Empirical Orthogonal Function

FD Flow-Duration

FDCs Flow Duration Curves

FFA Flood Frequency Analysis

FST Fuzzy set theory

GCISC Global Change Impact Study Centre

GCM Global Circulation Model

GCRI Global Climate Risk Index

GDP Gross Domestic Production

GHG Greenhouse Gases


xviii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48


GIS Geographic Information System

GLOF Glacial lake outburst flooding

GoP Government of Pakistan

H2O Dihydrogen Monoxide (Water)

HCCs Hydrographs, Hydropower Complex Charts

HEC-HDS Hydrologic Engineering Centre - Data Storage System

HEC-HMS Hydrologic Engineering Centre - Hydrologic Modelling System

HKH Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya

HPP Hydropower Plant

HSPF Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IPPG Integrated Planning for Power Generation

IRS Indus River System

KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

LARS-WG Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator

LCA Life Cycle Analysis

LMS Least Mean Square

MCDA Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

MOCC Ministry of Climate Change

MoCC Ministry of Climate Change

MODM Multiple Objective Decision Making Methodology

MOSAICC Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change

NDSI Normalized Difference Snow Index

NEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory Authority

NIS Negative Ideal Solution

NS Nash-Sutcliffe

PBUH Peace be Upon Him

PEDO Pakhtunkhwa Energy Development Organization

PIS Positive Ideal Solution

PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department

PPIB Private Power and Infrastructure Board

QFD Quality Function Deployment


xix | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48


RCM Radiative-Convective Model / Regional Climate Model

RCP Representative Concentration Pathways

RMSE Root Mean Square Error

SDM Statistical Dynamical Model

SHP Small Hydropower Plant

SLP Sea Level Pressure

SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios

SRM Snowmelt Runoff Model

SWH Surface Water Hydrology

TF Transfer Functions

TFN Triangular fuzzy numbers

TFPW Trend-Free Pre-Whitening

TOPSIS Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution

UET University of Engineering and Technology

UIB Upper Indus Basin

VIKOR Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje

VMP Vector Maximum Problem

WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority

WG Weather Generators

WT Weather Typing

Notations Description

k TFN

AD Drainage Area

Ak Assess Location

k Defuzzified Number

Bmk Benefit-criteria normalization

⁰C Degree Centigrade

cms Cubic meter per second

CO2 Carbon Dioxide

cp Specific heat capacity of air (Jkg−1

K−1

)


xx | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48


Soil Water Storage

e Exponential

Eavail Annual available energy (in kWh/yr)

Edlv Annual delivered energy (in kWh/yr)

eg Generator efficiency

et Turbine efficiency at flow Q

ET Water volume evapotranspiration (mm s−1

)

t des Turbine efficiency at design flow

FI Fuzzy Index

g Acceleration of gravity (9.81 m/s2)

G Ground heat flux (W m−2

)

ga Conductivity of air, (ms−1

)

gs Conductivity of stoma, surface conductance (ms−1

)

GW Giga Watt

Havail Available Head

Hg Gross Head

hydr Design head/hydraulic head

tail Tailrace Head

tail max Maximum tail-water effect

Jday Julian day taken as either start of the spring or fall pulse

k Parameter used to control steep of the flow pulse

K Capacity factor

Kg Kilo gram

kgoeq Kilo gram of oil equivalent

km Kilo meter

Km2

Square Kilo Meters

kW Kilo Watt

ldt Annual downtime losses

hydr hydraulic loss

lpara Parasitic electricity losses

LR Rating of the Location

ltrans Transformer losses


xxi | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48


m Meter

m2

Square Meter

MAF Million Acre Feet

map Maximum precipitation values

masl Meter above sea level

mat Maximum temperature values

Max Maximum

Min Minimum

mip Minimum precipitation values

mit Minimum temperature values

MtCO2e Million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent

MW Mega Watt

n Number of daily discharge values

Number of readings

np Normalized precipitation data

N Number /Values

NS Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient

p Precipitation data to be normalized

des Plant design capacity

pe Probability of exceedance

density of water (1,000 kg/m3)

ρa dry air density (kgm−3

)

̅ Mean flow

Q(t) General flow regimes

Q‘I Simulated daily discharge

n Available flow / firm flow

Qavg Average daily flow for the simulation year or simulation season

Qdes Design dflow

Qmax Maximum river flow

Qmin Minimum river flow

Qn Actual flow

Qi Measured daily flow


xxii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48


qn normalized flow

Flow pulses

Qpulse, fall Flow Pulse in Fall

Qpulse, spr Flow Pulse in Spring

Qr Residual flow

Rainfall rate

R Specific runoff

R2 Root Mean Square

Re Regression

i Relative Closeness

Rn Net irradiance (W m−2

)

rn Decision Weights

i- Negative Separation

i

Positive Separation

sq.km Square kilometer

SQRT Square Root

SQSUM Square Sum

T Time periods

Temp Temperature

tm Weibull location parameter

US $ United States Dollar

W Transformation to water-year dates that begin on Julian day

274

Weight

p Aggregate Weight

Xmodel Modeled values at time/place i

Xobs Observed values

γ Psychometric constant (γ ≈ 66 PaK−1

)

Δ Rate of change of saturation specific humidity with air

temperature (Pa K−1

)

δe Vapor pressure deficit, or specific humidity(Pa)


xxiii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

Table of Contents

DECLARATION ......................................................................................................... iv

PLAGIARISM UNDERTAKING .................................................................................v

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................... vi

PREFACE ................................................................................................................... vii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .............................................................................................x

DEDICATION ........................................................................................................... xiii

ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................... xiv

ABBREVIATIONS AND NOTATIONS ................................................................. xvii

CHAPTER NO. 1. INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................1

1.1 Background 1

1.2 Motivation for the Research Work 7

1.3 Problem Statement 9

1.4 Research Objectives and Methodologies 10

1.4.1. Research Objectives ...............................................................................10

1.4.2. Research Outcome .................................................................................11

1.4.3. Research Publications ............................................................................11

1.4.4. Originality and Novelty of Research Work ...........................................12

1.4.5. Usefulness of Research Work ................................................................13

1.4.6. Research Activities and Methodology ...................................................13

1.5 Thesis Layout 19

CHAPTER NO. 2. LITERATURE REVIEW .............................................................22

2.1 Background 22

2.2 Global Climate Models and Their Usage 23

2.2.1 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) ...................................26

2.2.2 Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRESs) ....................................26

2.2.3 Modelling the Climatic Response in GCMs ..........................................27

2.2.4 Confidence and Validation of GCMs ....................................................30

2.2.5 The Fundamental Equations Used in GCMs .........................................31

2.2.6 Projections Made by GCMs ...................................................................33

2.2.7 Advantages and Disadvantages of Climate Models...............................35

2.3 Hydrological Modelling and Hydropower Simulations 36

2.3.1 Hydrological Modelling .........................................................................36

2.3.2 Hydrological Models .............................................................................37


xxiv | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

2.4 Hydropower Simulations —Power Generations 38

2.4.1 Hydropower Simulations .......................................................................39

2.5 The Variability and Uncertainty in Global Climate and Hydrology 40

2.6 Risk and Uncertainty in Water Resource Management and Small

Hydropower Generation 42

2.7 Estimating the Extent and Duration of Uncertainty 43

2.7.1 Model uncertainty ..................................................................................44

2.7.2 Nonstationarity .......................................................................................44

2.8 Discussion 45

CHAPTER NO. 3. CLIMATE CHANGES AND THEIR IMPACTS WITHIN

CONTEXT OF CHITRAL, PAKISTAN .....................................................................47

3.1 Background 47

3.2 Global Climate Changes Trend 49

3.3 Impacts of Global Climate Changes 49

3.4 Developing Climate Scenarios for Estimating Future Climate 51

3.4.1 Emission Scenarios to Predict Future Climate Changes ........................52

3.4.2 GCMs versus RCMs ..............................................................................53

3.5 Downscaling Data from GCMs 54

3.5.1 Dynamic Downscaling ...........................................................................54

3.5.2 Statistical Downscaling ..........................................................................54

3.5.3 Tools Used for Downscaling .................................................................56

3.6 Assessing Impact of Climate Changes at Study Area 58

3.7 Data and Analysis of Climate Change Impact Study 59

3.8 Outcomes of the Climate Change Impacts Study 61

3.8.1 Historical Climatic Trend Analysis .......................................................61

3.8.2 Future Climatic Trend Analysis .............................................................67

3.9 Comparative Analysis between Fuzzy Model and GCMs for Predicting

Future Temperature and Precipitation 78

3.9.1 Fuzzy Set Theory ...................................................................................78

3.9.2 Fuzzy Modeling and Fuzzy Optimization..............................................79

3.9.3 Predicting Temperature and Precipitation Using Fuzzy Logic ..............81

3.9.4 Outcomes ...............................................................................................90

3.10 Anticipated Impacts of Climate Changes 91

3.11 Discussion 92


xxv | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

CHAPTER NO. 4. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON WATER

RESOURCES IN CHITRAL RIVER BASIN, PAKISTAN .......................................95

4.1 Background 95

4.2 Global Climate Change Drivers 96

4.2.1 Key Global Climate Change Drivers .....................................................96

4.3 The Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources 97

4.3.1 Global Purview of Impacts of Climate Changes on Water Resources ..98

4.3.2 Impacts of Climate Changes in Himalayas ..........................................100

4.4 Modelling Impacts of Climate Changes on Water Resources 102

4.4.1 Hydrological Modeling and Water Resources .....................................102

4.5 Hydrological Modeling Process for Future Projections 104

4.5.1 Climate Data Predictions (Temperature and Precipitation) .................104

4.5.2 Climate Change Impact Assessment on Hydrology ............................105

4.5.3 Uncertainties in Climate Change Impact Assessment .........................105

4.5.4 Flow Optimization ...............................................................................105

4.6 Assessing Impact of Climate Changes on Water Resources in the Study Area

Using Hydrologic Modeling 105

4.7 Data and Analysis to Assess Impact of Climate Changes on Water Resources

108

4.8 Outcomes of the Hydrological Modeling to Assess Impacts of Climate

Change on Water Resources 110

4.8.1 Historical Hydrological Trend Analysis ..............................................110

4.8.2 Hydrological Modeling to Assess Water Flow Variations in Future ...112

4.9 Comparative Analysis between Fuzzy Model and Hydrologic Models for

Predicting Future Flows 144

4.9.1 Fuzzy Modeling and Fuzzy Optimization............................................146

4.9.2 Predicting Future Flows Using Fuzzy Logic .......................................147

4.9.3 Using Fuzzy Logic to Predict Future Flows in Chitral River ..............148

4.9.4 Outcomes .............................................................................................158

4.10 Anticipated Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources 159

4.10.1 Extremes: Floods and Droughts ...........................................................159

4.10.2 Arid and Semi-Arid Environments ......................................................159

4.10.3 Cold Environments: Snow, Glaciers and Permafrost ..........................159

4.10.4 Water Quality .......................................................................................160


xxvi | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

4.10.5 Erosion and Sedimentation ..................................................................160

4.10.6 Urban Settlements ................................................................................161

4.10.7 Biodiversity ..........................................................................................162

4.10.8 Groundwater ........................................................................................162

4.10.9 The Impact of Land Use Change and Population Growth on Water

Resources ............................................................................................................162

4.10.10 The Impact of Socio-Political Dynamics on Water Resources ............162

4.11 Discussion 163

CHAPTER NO. 5. LOCATING SMALL HYDROPOWER PLANTS TAKING INTO

CONSIDERATION EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGES DURING DECISION

MAKING ....................................................................................................167

5.1. Background 167

5.2. Hydropower Generation – A Global Perspective 168

5.3. Hydropower Generation with Special Focus on Small Hydropower 170

5.4. Impacts of Climate Changes on Hydropower Generation 172

5.5. Limitations in Small Hydropower Plants 174

5.6. Decision Making for Site Selection for Small Hydropower Plant 175

5.7. Multi-Objective Decision-Making Methodology (MODM) – A Tool for

Effective Decision Making 176

5.7.1. MODM/MCDM Methods used in Water Resources and Renewable

Energy Problems.................................................................................................180

5.7.2. Steps Involved in Decision Making Process Using MODM ...............182

5.8 Using Multiple Objective Decision Making Methodology for Locating Small

Hydropower Plants under Climate Changes Scenarios 183

5.8.1. Small Hydropower Sites Assessed.......................................................184

5.8.2. Important Factors for Locating Small Hydropower Plants ..................187

5.8.3. MODM Analysis and Results for Site Selection for Small Hydropower

Plants ..............................................................................................................190

5.9 Scenario Analysis 197

5.9.1. Secenario-1: Decision Making in Site Selection for Small Hydropower

Plant Excluding Environmental Factors .............................................................197

5.9.2. Secenario-2: Decision Making in Site Selection for Small Hydropower

Plant Excluding Climate Changing Factors ........................................................203


xxvii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

5.10. Comparative Analysis to use Fuzzy sets theory for Decision Making in Site

Selection for Small Hydropower Plant 209

5.10.1. Modeling for Fuzzy Set Theory for Site Selection for Small

Hydropower ........................................................................................................210

5.11 Discussion 217

CHAPTER NO. 6. OPTIMALLY SIZING SMALL HYDROPOWER PROJECT TO

MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER FUTURE PROJECTED FLOWS 219

6.1 Background 219

6.2 Impacts of Climate Changes on Small Hydropower Generation 221

6.3 Review of Existing Global Studies 222

6.4 Sizing Small Hydropower Plants under Uncertainty of Flows Due to Climate

Changes at the Study Area 224

6.5 Description of Models and Methods Used 226

6.5.1 RETScreen 4.1 Software for Small Hydropower Simulations ............227

6.6 Data and Analysis to Size Small Hydropower Plants under Future Projected

Flows 227

6.7 Outcomes of the Modeling, Analysis and Research 230

6.7.1 River Flow Analysis to Predict Optimal Flow Values .........................230

6.7.2 Uncertainty Analysis for Predicted River Flow and Hydropower

Generation ..........................................................................................................231

6.7.3 Locating Optimal Probability of Exceedance (pe) at FD Curve for

Optimal Sizing of Small Hydropower Plant under Uncertainty of Flow ...........238

6.7.4 Determination of Design Head / Hydraulic Head ................................241

6.7.5 Selection of Turbine .............................................................................241

6.7.6 Power Analysis to Assess Predicted Power Generation Capacity .......242

6.7.7 Energy Generation Analysis to Assess Energy Generation Capacity ..246

6.7.8 Financial Viability Analysis of Selected Turbine Sizes ......................248

6.7.9 Use of Multi Objective Decision-Making Methodology for Optimal

Sizing the Small Hydropower Plant ...................................................................249

6.8 Inference of Study to Optimally Locating and Sizing the Small Hydropower

Plants Under Future Projected Flows 257

6.9 Discussion 259

CHAPTER NO. 7. Uncertainty in Predicting Future Flows for Small Hydropower

Generation ....................................................................................................261


xxviii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

7.1. Background 261

7.2. Sources of Uncertainties in Water Management and Small Hydropower

Generation 264

7.2.1 Climate Data Collection Uncertainties ................................................264

7.2.2 Hydrological Data Collection Uncertainties ........................................265

7.2.3 Glacier melting / retreat Related Uncertainties ....................................266

7.2.4 Hydrological Model Uncertainties for predicting flows ......................269

7.2.5 Uncertainties in Quantification of GHG Emissions.............................272

7.2.6 Uncertainties related to Global Circulation Models and Regional

Climate Models to Predict Climate Changes ......................................................272

7.2.7 Hydropower Simulation Uncertainties ................................................273

7.2.8 Uncertainties in Government Policies .................................................274

7.3. How uncertainty and risk affect decision-making 274

7.3.1 Need for data to Ascertain Uncertainty ...............................................275

7.4. Measures to reduce impacts of uncertainties 276

7.4.1 Using long-term data for Predictions ...................................................276

7.4.2 Addressing Uncertainties related to the System ..................................276

7.4.3 Importance of Non-quantifiable Factors ..............................................277

7.4.4 Scenarios Analysis for better perspective ............................................277

7.4.5 Improving Understanding during Decision Making ............................278

7.4.6 Evaluation Processes for Better Decision Making...............................278

7.4.7 Improving Design Procedures for Water Resources and Power

Generation ..........................................................................................................279

7.4.8 Precautionary principle ........................................................................279

7.4.9 Multiplicity ..........................................................................................280

7.4.10 Handling Risk and Uncertainty While Decision Making ....................280

7.4.11 Options to Strategize Handling Uncertainty ........................................281

7.5. Discussion 282

CHAPTER NO. 8. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......................283

8.1. Conclusion 283

8.2. Recommendations 286

REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................289

APPENDICES ...............................................................................................................1


xxix | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

List of Tables

Table 2-1: List of Global Circulation Models Used in the AR4 .................................. 25

Table 2-2: Scenario Story Lines and Their Descriptions ............................................. 27

Table 2-3: Some Hydrological Models Used in Climate Change Impacts .................. 37

Table 2-4: Some Small Hydropower Simulation Models being used globally ........... 39

Table 3-1: Location Details of PMD Hydro-Meteorological Station in Chitral .......... 62

Table 4-1: Models with Categorization used to Simulate Parameters for Chitral Basin

.................................................................................................................................... 113

Table 4-2: Initial and Optimized Values of Hydrologic Parameters for Chitral Basin

.................................................................................................................................... 115

Table 4-3: Comparison between Observed and Computed Values ........................... 116




Table 4-7: Values of the Input Parameters Varying + 4% from Optimal .................. 121

Table 4-8: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying

Constant Rate ............................................................................................................. 122

Table 4-9: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying Max

Deficit ........................................................................................................................ 123


Canopy Max Storage.................................................................................................. 125


Surface Max Storage .................................................................................................. 126


Synder Peak Coeffient ............................................................................................... 127


Synder Standard Lag .................................................................................................. 129


Temp Coldrate ........................................................................................................... 130


Temp Meltrate ............................................................................................................ 131


Base Temp ................................................................................................................. 133


xxx | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48


Ground Meltrate ......................................................................................................... 134


Liquid WC ................................................................................................................. 135

Table 4-19: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying PX

Temp .......................................................................................................................... 137

Table 4-20: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying Rain

Rate ............................................................................................................................ 138

Table 4-21: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying Wet

Meltrate ...................................................................................................................... 139

Table 4-22: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by VaryingAll

Parameters .................................................................................................................. 141

Table 5-1: Small Hydropower Definition in Different Countries .............................. 171

Table 5-2: Small Hydropower Project Site Selection ................................................ 184

Table 5-3: Decision Matrix ........................................................................................ 191

Table 5-4: Pair-Wise Comparison Matrix .................................................................. 192

Table 5-5: Normalized Matrix ................................................................................... 192

Table 5-6: Weights of the Factors Defining Criteria and Their Ranking .................. 192

Table 5-7: Matrix of Score ......................................................................................... 195

Table 5-8: Ranking of Small Hydropower Plant Sites............................................... 195

Table 5-9: Normalized Decision Matrix .................................................................... 195

Table 5-10: Weighted Normalized Decision Matrix ................................................. 196

Table 5-11: Euclidean Distance (Separation Measures) ............................................ 196

Table 5-12: TOPSIS Method Rank, Relative Closeness ........................................... 196

Table 5-13: Small Hydropower Project Site Selection .............................................. 198

Table 5-14: Decision Matrix ...................................................................................... 198

Table 5-15: Pair-Wise Comparison Matrix ................................................................ 198

Table 5-16: Normalize Matrix ................................................................................... 199

Table 5-17: Weights of the Factors Defining Criteria and Their Ranking ................ 199

Table 5-18: Matrix of Score ....................................................................................... 201

Table 5-19: Ranking of Small Hydropower Plant Sites............................................. 201

Table 5-20: Normalized Decision Matrix .................................................................. 201

Table 5-21: Waited Normalized Decision Matrix ..................................................... 201



xxxi | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48


Table 5-24: Small Hydropower Project Site Selection .............................................. 203

Table 5-25: Decision Matrix ...................................................................................... 203

Table 5-26: Pair-Wise Comparison Matrix ................................................................ 204

Table 5-27: Normalized Matrix ................................................................................. 204

Table 5-28: Weights of the Factors defining Criteria and Their Ranking ................. 204

Table 5-29: Matrix of Score ....................................................................................... 205

Table 5-30: Ranking of Small Hydropower Plant Sites............................................. 205





Table 5-35: Criteria Weights for FST ........................................................................ 211

Table 5-36: Matrix: Assess Location based on Qualitative Criteria .......................... 212

Table 5-37: Quantitative Criteria Matrix ................................................................... 213

Table 5-38: Fuzzified Criteria Numbers of the Sites ................................................. 213

Table 5-39: Defuzzified Criteria Numbers of Sites and Ranking .............................. 213

Table 5-40: Decision Matrix with Aggregated Weight for CR ................................. 214

Table 5-41: Results of Calculation for Location Rating ............................................ 215

Table 5-42: Fuzzy Index of All Three Sites............................................................... 216

Table 5-43: Results of Defuzzification and Ranking of Sites.................................... 216

Table 6-1: Summary Design Capacity Average Annual Flow and Capacity Factor . 248

Table 6-2: Estimated Capital and O&M Expense...................................................... 249

Table 6-3: Hydro-Turbine Size Selection .................................................................. 250

Table 6-4: Decision Matrix ........................................................................................ 251

Table 6-5: Pair-Wise Comparison Matrix .................................................................. 253

Table 6-6: Normalized Matrix ................................................................................... 253

Table 6-7: Weighted Parameters ................................................................................ 254

Table 6-8: Matrix of Score ......................................................................................... 254

Table 6-9: Ranking of Small Hydropower Plant Sites............................................... 255






xxxii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

List of Figures

Figure 1-1: Comparison of Historical and Future Predicted GHG Emissions............... 6

Figure 2-1: Schematic for Global Atmospheric Model .............................................. 24

Figure 2-2: Schematic Illustration of GCM Structure at a Single Grid Box ............... 28

Figure 2-3: Comparison of Changes in Historical and Future Projected Temperature

and Precipitation Using GCMs under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 ........................................ 34

Figure: 3-1: General Transfer Functions Illustration ................................................... 56

Figure 3-2: Geographical Location of Chitral and SHP Sites...................................... 60

Figure 3-3: The Map of Chitral River Basin ................................................................ 60

Figure 3-4: Activity Flow Chart for Modeling Climate Change ................................. 61

Figure 3-5: Mean Monthly Temperature Comparison during 1984-2013 ................... 63

Figure 3-6: Historical Trends of Temperature Variance during 1984-2013 ................ 64

Figure 3-7: Mean Monthly Precipitation Comparison during 1984-2013 ................... 65

Figure 3-8: Historical Trends of Precipitation Variance during 1984-2013 ................ 66

Figure 3-9: Annual Precipitation during 1984-2013 .................................................... 66

Figure 3-10: Bias Corrected Temperature Predictions from 5 GCMs under A1B, A2

and B1 Emissions Scenarios ........................................................................................ 70

Figure 3-11: Bias Corrected Precipitation Predictions from 5 GCMs under A1B, A2

and B1 Emissions Scenarios ........................................................................................ 72

Figure 3-12: Comparison of Historical and Predicted Mean Monthly Temperature

Data of Chitral.............................................................................................................. 74

Figure 3-13: Trends in Future Temperature Variations ............................................... 75

Figure 3-14: Comparison of Historical and Predicted Mean Monthly Precipitation

Data of Chitral.............................................................................................................. 76

Figure 3-15: Trends in Future Precipitation Variations ............................................... 77

Figure 3-16: Function Fitting Neural Network for Configuration ............................... 84

Figure 3-17: Error Histogram ...................................................................................... 85

Figure 3-18: Curve Fitting for Temperature Data ........................................................ 85

Figure 3-19: Curve Fitting for Precipitation Data ........................................................ 86

Figure 3-20: Regression Analysis ................................................................................ 86

Figure 3-21: Network Performance Plot ...................................................................... 87

Figure 3-22: Comparison of Fuzzy Rule Future Projections of Temperature with

Historical Data ............................................................................................................. 89


xxxiii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

Figure 3-23: Comparison of Fuzzy Rule Future Projections of Precipitation with

Historical Data ............................................................................................................. 90

Figure 4-1: River basin Area of Chitral River ........................................................... 107

Figure 4-2: Terrain and Geography of the Chitral Region ........................................ 107

Figure 4-3: Activity Flow Charge to Assess Impact of Climate Changes on Water

Resources ................................................................................................................... 109

Figure 4-4: The Map of Chitral Basin........................................................................ 110

Figure 4-5: Historical Trends of the River Flow in Chitral River 1989-2013 ........... 112

Figure 4-6: Steps Taken to Model Historical Data .................................................... 112

Figure 4-7: Comparison of Observed and Calibrated Discharge Data of River Chitral

.................................................................................................................................... 115

Figure 4-8: Comparison of Observed and Validated Discharge Data of River Chitral

.................................................................................................................................... 116

Figure 4-9: Sensitivity Analysis of Observed and Simulated Flow Data of River

Chitral ........................................................................................................................ 118

Figure 4-10: Sensitivity Analysis of Observed and Simulated Flow Data of River

Chitral ........................................................................................................................ 119

Figure 4-11: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Constant Rate

+4% and -4% ............................................................................................................. 122

Figure 4-12: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Max Deficit +4%

and -4% ...................................................................................................................... 123

Figure 4-13: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Canopy Max

Storage +4% and -4% ................................................................................................ 124

Figure 4-14: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Surface Max

Storage +4% and -4% ................................................................................................ 126

Figure 4-15: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Synder Peak

Coefficient +4% and -4%........................................................................................... 127

Figure 4-16: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Synder Standard

Lag +4% and -4% ...................................................................................................... 128

Figure 4-17: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Temp Coldrate

+4% and -4% ............................................................................................................. 130

Figure 4-18: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Temp Meltrate

+4% and -4% ............................................................................................................. 131


xxxiv | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

Figure 4-19: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Base Temp +4%

and -4% ...................................................................................................................... 132

Figure 4-20: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Ground Meltrate

+4% and -4% ............................................................................................................. 134

Figure 4-21: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Liquid WC +4%

and -4% ...................................................................................................................... 135

Figure 4-22: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying PX Temp +4%

and -4% ...................................................................................................................... 136

Figure 4-23: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Rain Rate +4%

and -4% ...................................................................................................................... 138

Figure 4-24: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Wet Meltrate

+4% and -4% ............................................................................................................. 139

Figure 4-25: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying All Parameters

+4% and -4% ............................................................................................................. 140

Figure 4-26: Steps Taken to Model Predictions for Hydrological Data .................... 141

Figure 4-27: Comparison of Historical and Predicted Mean Flow Data of Chitral

River ........................................................................................................................... 143

Figure 4-28: Flow Duration Curves for Periods 1989-2013, 2050, 2081 and 2099 .. 144

Figure 4-29: Function Fitting Neural Network for Configuration ............................. 153

Figure 4-30: Error Histogram for Training and Validation Fuzzy Model ................. 154

Figure 4-31: Best Fit Curve for River Flows ............................................................. 155

Figure 4-32: Regression Plot of the Data ................................................................... 155

Figure 4-33: Network Performance Plot .................................................................... 156

Figure 4-34: Comparison between Observed and Fuzzy Rule Based Projected Data

.................................................................................................................................... 158

Figure 5-1: Flow chart of climate change effects. Red indicates effects that are

typically detrimental to hydroelectric production, and blue indicates effects that

typically improve hydroelectric production potential ................................................ 174

Figure 5-2: Decision Matrix Chart ............................................................................. 194

Figure 5-3: Decision Matrix Chart – Scenario-1 ....................................................... 200

Figure 5-4: Decision Matrix Chart – Scenario 2 ........................................................ 206

Figure 5-5: Triangular Fuzzy Number ....................................................................... 209

Figure 5-6: U Triangular Fuzzy Numbers Used for Quantifying Linguistic Parameters

.................................................................................................................................... 212


xxxv | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

Figure 6-1: River basin Area of Chitral River ........................................................... 228

Figure 6-2: The Map of Chitral Basin........................................................................ 229

Figure 6-3: Activity Flow Chart for Optimally Sizing Small Hydropower Plant...... 230

Figure 6-4: Flow Duration Curves for Periods 1989-2013, 2050, 2081 and 2099 .... 231

Figure 6-5: Flow duration curve under negative uncertainties–Average for 2045-65

.................................................................................................................................... 232

Figure 6-6: Flow duration curve under positive uncertainties–Average for the year

2045-65 ...................................................................................................................... 233

Figure 6-7: Flow duration curve under negative and positive uncertainties (2045-65)

.................................................................................................................................... 233

Figure 6-8: Change in design discharge due to uncertainty in flow (year 2045-65) . 234

Figure 6-9: Flow duration curve under negative uncertainties–Average for the year

2080-99 ...................................................................................................................... 235

Figure 6-10: Flow duration curve under positive uncertainties–Average for the year

2080-99 ...................................................................................................................... 236

Figure 6-11: Flow duration curve under negative and positive uncertainties–Average

for the year 2080-99 ................................................................................................... 236

Figure 6-12: Change in design discharge due to uncertainty in flowChange in design

discharge due to uncertainty in flow .......................................................................... 237

Figure 6-13: Effect of random error ........................................................................... 238

Figure 6-14: Application Chart for Type of Turbine ................................................. 242

Figure 6-15: Available Flow 25% of time during 1983-2013, 2014-30, 2046-65 and

2080-90 ...................................................................................................................... 244


2080-90 ...................................................................................................................... 245


2080-90 ...................................................................................................................... 245

Figure 6-18: Flow 40% of time during 1983-2013, 2014-30, 2046-65 and 2080-90 246

Figure 6-19: Comparative Analysis of Annual Average Production of SHP Turbines

.................................................................................................................................... 247

Figure 6-20: Payback Analysis of Investment of SHP Turbines ............................... 249

Figure 6-21: Decision Matrix Chart ........................................................................... 252


1 | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48

CHAPTER NO. 1. INTRODUCTION

Global Climate Change resulting from an increasing concentration of Greenhouse Gases

(GHG) in the atmosphere caused due to excessive use of fossil fuels and other

anthropogenic activities is now an established phenomenon. The effects of these climate

changes have been observed in most parts of the world including Pakistan. With

continued heavy reliance of the world energy system on fossil fuels for the near future,

much larger climatic changes and their adverse impacts are expected in the coming

decades.

1.1 Background

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report (IPCC,

AR5) has concluded with scientific consensus that human activities, mainly Greenhouse

Gases‘ (GHGs) emissions and changes in land use are the primary driver of global

climate change. Linden et al, 2016; Maibach et al, 2014; Cook et al, 2013, Andereg et al,

2010 and many others also have concluded that human-caused climate change is

occurring worldwide.

According to the IPCC, AR5 (IPCC-2014) the average temperature of the earth‘s surface

increased by 0.6 °C during the 20th

century. The studies have projected that if business as

usual persists then the world is going to experience an average increase in global

temperature within a range of 1.1 to 6.4 °C by the end of 21st century (IPCC, 2014). It is

further anticipated that this increase in temperature would not be uniformly distributed all

over the globe, rather a few parts are expected to experience very high temperature

increases and a few would face decrease in annual average temperatures. Among others,

this would also cause large variations (both, increases and decreases) in precipitation in

different world regions and various other climatic extremities. Some of those could be

worldwide increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme floods, droughts and

cyclones, large scale shrinking of Arctic sea ice and recession of mountain glaciers, rise



in average sea level by up to 0.6 meter etc., with serious adverse impacts on various

socio-economic sectors in many parts of the world.

The impacts of climate changes are expected to cause serious damages in the globe as

this would create an imbalance in the energy of the Earth. This imbalance needs to be

stabilized; otherwise, it would result in global warming of up to 2⁰C above the

preindustrial level and would spur more ice shelf melt that would cause sea level rise,

changes in climatic patterns and shifts in precipitation (Hansen et al, 2015). Besada et al

(2013) demonstrated the link between climate change and six affected categories of

development including: economics and agriculture; water; ecosystem and biodiversity;

human health; coast regions; and, forced migration and conflict as a means of developing

a standardized criterion of climate change effects on development.

The studies indicate that climate changes are going to affect the freshwater resources of

the world strongly (Vliet et al, 2016; Tadic et al, 2016, Li et al, 2012). Most significant

effects would include variation in runoff, flood intensity and frequency, and intensity and

duration of low flows (Chen et al, 2012, Lu et al, 2013). This will create issues in water

resource management and global & regional socioeconomic systems (Bates et al, 2008).

In addition, there are probabilities that due to climate changes, a distinct reduction in

summer river flows and an increase in winter runoff would result. It is therefore essential

that the information about the potential impacts of climate change on river runoff should

be prepared in order to have efficient adaptation strategies (Stagl and Hattermann, 2015).

The water flow in rivers, streams, canals and waterfalls renders excellent opportunity to

convert potentio-kinetic energy to electrical energy by installing hydro turbines.

Depending upon the available potential, hydropower plants of varying capacity i.e. from

some kilowatts (kW) to gigawatts (GW) are being installed globally. Small hydro power

that includes projects up to 50 megawatts (MW) capacities, can supply cheap electricity

to central/national grids. It is a proven technology that has been benefited from over a

century by installing large and small hydropower systems.



Pakistan is situated in the South Asian region and is located in sub-tropical arid zone. The

total land area of the country is 796,095 square Kilometers (sq. km). Pakistan is one of

the unique countries of the world that has variable geological and climatic conditions.

The land area altitude varies from 0 meter above sea level (masl) up to 8611m masl. It

has 240,000 sq. km (31%) economic zone, 110,000 sq. km (14%) desert area, 31,844 sq.

km (4%) forest area, 25,220 sq. km (3%) water area (rivers, streams etc.), 15,000 sq. km

(2%) glacier cover,364,031 sq. km (46%) other area (including populated and barren

land), 50,000 km additional continental shelf area and around 990 km long coastline.

Human population is residing at altitude from 0 m masl up to more than 8,000 m masl.

The country has a unique geo-political and economic situation that increases its

significance in the region. The glacier area of the country has around 5,000 glaciers that

make Pakistan the most glacier-populated country of the world outside the Polar Region.

Globally, glaciers are considered as stabilizer to the global and regional climate and are

most significant source of the clean fresh water. The glaciers in this area are retreating at

an alarming rate of around 23 percent (MoCC, 2016).

The climate of the country is semi-arid and can be classified into four climate regions

namely i) the marine tropical coastland; ii) the subtropical continental lowlands; iii) the

subtropical continental highlands; and iv) the subtropical continental plateau (MoCC,

2016).

Pakistan is administratively divided into seven federating units and a federal capital.

Significant features of the Pakistan‘s society are it is multicultural carries ethnic

diversity that has add on of culture from neighboring countries due to hosting large

refugees‘ population and social relations. From economic standpoint, the country has

large percentage of young population that if provided with required capital, opportunities

and ways to contribute in coming years can play a vital role in economic development

and growth of the country. Estimates indicate that the prolific utilization of the young

population for sustainable development and growth of the country requires creating 1.5

million new job opportunities in every proceeding year (MoCC, 2016).



As per the estimates, Pakistan is the sixth most populous country of the world and second

largest country of the Muslim world with current population around 195.4 million. The

Government of Pakistan is anticipating population growth rate of around 1.89 percent per

annum. At this rate, estimated population of Pakistan at the end of year 2025, 2050 and

2099 would be around 229 million, 275 million and 350 million respectively.

higher education commissionprr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/7894/1/thesis... · 2018. 7....

Documents