higher edu in developing countries

7/30/2019 Higher Edu in Developing Countries

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Higher Education in DevelopingCountries:What Role, What Impact?

Devesh KapurUniversity of Pennsylvania


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Outline of Presentation

Overview of Tertiary Education

Why? Rising Demand

How? Supply Responses Changing Role of the State

Regulation and Standards

Access: Who gets educated? What? The Content of Higher Education

Devesh Kapur, CASI


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Higher Education Landscape

Global tertiary student population:

1991 68 million

2004 132 million

2009 150 million

The global market in higher education exceeds over 3percent of the total services market

3.5 million people are employed to teach or otherwiseservice students

Global market in educational services is currently estimatedat more than $2 trillion

Devesh Kapur, CASI


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Growth in global tertiary education

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1950 1980 2000 2010 2025 2050

Africa

Asia

Europe

Latin America

North America

Oceania

LDCs

World

Population aged 15-24 (in millions)

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World PopulationProspects: The 2006 Revisionand World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp,

Devesh Kapur, CASI
http://esa.un.org/unpphttp://esa.un.org/unpphttp://esa.un.org/unpp


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Rapid growth of student enrolmentChina and India

Devesh Kapur, CASI

INDIA

1950/51: 27 Universities, 578 Colleges

2009: 504 Universities , 25,951 Colleges, 14

million students enrolled

CHINA

2009: 30 million students enrolled

Number of College Graduates: 98 million

Target (2020): 195 million


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Why? Rising Skill Premium

Source: Goldberg and Pavcnik, 2006

1980s 1990s

Mexico Increased Increased until mid 1990s

Stable/declined after mid1990s

Increased between 2000-1990

Colombia Slightly declined Increased

Argentina Declined Increased

Brazil Stable/Slightincrease

Increased

Chile Increased Declined early 1990s;Overall increased 1990-2000 (national data)

India Relatively stable Increased

Hong Kong Increased Increased

Devesh Kapur, CASI


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Political Economy of Higher education

Limited public resources

Regulation: Failures leading to shift from Inputs to Outcomes

Supply of quality institutions is severely lagging demand

- Increasing faculty shortages especially in elite institutions,with competition from private sector

Quality: high variance and low mean

Entrenched mediocrity in most faculty Exceeding weak culture of research

Access and Equity exacerbated by failures at primary and

secondary levelDevesh Kapur, CASI


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Poor quality has led to diminished signaling

Centralized regulation provides fertile ground for rent-seeking and patronage politics

Higher Education is emerging as an important arena ofdistributional conflicts

These distributional conflicts have intensified as skillpremium has increased

Increase in degree inflation: Credentials without Skills

The few institutions that signal quality enjoy enormousbrand-rents

Devesh Kapur, CASI


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Obstacles to reform

PATRONAGE IN PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS

INCUMBENT BENEFICIARIES

POLITICALLY CONNECTED HIGHER EDUCATIONENTREPRENEURS

ELITE FLIGHT TO OVERSEAS INSTITUTIONS

KEY ARENA FOR DISTRIBUTIONAL CONFLICTS


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How? Supply Responses

Changing Role of State

Increasing Role of Private Universities

Corporate Skill Providers

Internationalization of Higher Education

But undercut by Brain Drain?

Devesh Kapur, CASI


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The Role of the State

Regulation

From Provider to Financier to Regulator

Promoting Access and Equity

Invest in areas undersupplied by privatesector

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U.S. Ratio of Earnings: College vs. HighSchool

Devesh Kapur, CASISource: New York Times, March 5, 2011

1.41.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

1.7

1.75

1.8

1.85

1.9

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Rati


14/29Source: New York Times,April 11, 2011 Devesh Kapur, CASI

Rising Costs of Tertiary Educationin the U.S.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Billions

Student Loan Debt

Credit Card Debt


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Bank lending for higher educationin India (in billions of rupees)

20002005

2010

3 40

400

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Rs.

(billio

Year

Devesh Kapur, CASI


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International Student Enrolment in TopFive Host Countries (in thousands)

1999 2004 2008

US 491 573 625

UK 233 300 342

Australia 178 241 231

Canada 131 111 93

Japan 117 107 116

Devesh Kapur, CASISource: OECD, 2011


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Recent rapid increase in Chinesestudents abroad


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India: Overseas Exit to avail of externalsignaling

In 2010, about 264,000 Indian students studied abroad About 100,000 in the U.S.

Other large destinations: Australia, UK, Canada,New Zealand and Singapore

Others in Europe, Russia and China

Primarily self-financed undergraduate education andprofessional (Masters) degrees

Growing Expenditure: $5.5 billion (overseas); $2.2billion (government budget)

Flight of Elites


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but many poor countries do no not

see a return of talent

Expatriation Rates (Doctors and Nurses from Low-Income Countries, 2000)

Nurses Doctors

Bangladesh, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso,

Burundi, Central African Republic, Dem.

Rep. Congo, Cte dIvoire, Ethiopia,

Gambia, Guinea, India, Kenya, Mali,

Mauritania, Myanmar, Nepal, Niger,Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Sudan, Timor-

Leste, Togo, Uganda, Yemen, Zambia

Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Dem. Rep. Congo,

Guinea, India, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal,

Niger, Pakistan, Rwanda, Sudan, Yemen

Cambodia, Comoros, Eritrea, Ghana,

Guinea-Bissau, Laos, Madagascar,

Mozambique, Papua New Guinea,

Rwanda, Solomon Islands, Somalia,

Vietnam

Afghanistan, Cambodia, Central African

Republic, Chad, Comoros, Cte dIvoire,

Ethiopia, Gambia, Laos, Madagascar, Mali,

Mauritania, Nigeria, Solomon Islands, Vietnam

Sao Tome and Principe, Zimbabwe Benin, Burundi, Eritrea, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau,

Kenya, Malawi, Papua New Guinea, Sao Tome

and Principe, Senegal, Somalia, Timor-Leste,

Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

Haiti, Liberia, Sierra Leone Haiti, Liberia, Mozambique, Sierra Leone

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Cross Border Supply: Universities

Travel Abroad

Range of Arrangements Overseascampuses, franchise, joint degrees,twinning, etc.

Why are there so few overseascampuses?

Regulatory issues

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The Virtual Future: A Solution?

Early Failures

Recent successes in the US Costs

Open Courseware Movement

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Can Online Education Substitute forBrick-and-Mortar Universities?

Estimated number of students in the US who enroll only online

(in millions)

Source: The Chronicle of Higher Education, 2010

2004 0.78

2005 0.99

2006 1.26

2007 1.54

2008 1.78

2009 2.14

2014

(projected)

3.97

Devesh Kapur, CASI


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World Internet Penetration Rates, by RegionAs of 2010

Devesh Kapur, CASISource: Internet World Stats, 2010

North America

Oceania/Australia

Europe

Latin America/Carribean

Middle East

Asia

Africa

World Average

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Percent


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What is the purpose of highereducation?

To train people or make them trainable?

To create a middle class?

Be an engine of innovation?

Provide a ladder for social mobility or create national elites?

A mechanism of nation building by influencing and molding the minds

of young people?

promoting social mobility is not our core mission. Our core mission

is to provide an outstanding education within a research setting." -Alison Richard, Vice Chancellor, Cambridge University

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The mission of the university is the discovery,

improvement, and dissemination of knowledgeBy design

and by effect, it is the institution which creates discontentwith the existing social arrangements and proposes newones. In brief, a good university will be unsettling.

--University of Chicago, 1967

A university is a series of individual faculty entrepreneurs

held together by a common grievance over car parking.--Clark Kerr, former President of the University of CaliforniaSystem

He was sent, as usual, to a public school, where a littlelearning was painfully beaten into him, and from thence tothe university, where it was carefully taken out of him.--T.L. Peacock

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Future of Higher Education?

Corporate campusesand workforcetraining

Private providersincreasinglydominant

Overseas higher

education (elites)

Non

traditional

higher

education

development

s

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The Trilemma: Scale, Cost andQuality

Who Gets Educated?

Equity and access especially for historically sociallymarginalized groups

Selection Criteria

Is Traditional University Education Oversold?

Skilling vs degrees

The global hunt for talent: Where are the faculty?

Will there be innovation in Higher Education itself?

higher edu in developing countries

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