high-speed and intercity transport global market … · between 2000 and 2002, growth slowed down...
TRANSCRIPT
Between 2000 and 2002, growth slowed down considerably in the German economy.
SCI Verkehr, Cologne 2016
HIGH-SPEED AND INTERCITY TRANSPORT
GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS
Market Volume in OEM Business and After Sales Service as well as Prospects for Market Developments of Infrastructure,
Rolling Stock, Products and Manufacturers
SCI/VERKEHR Cologne 2016
Extract from the study
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • High-Speed and Intercity Transport – Global Market Trends • 3
HIGH-SPEED TRANSPORT AND INTERCITY TRANSPORT – GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS
Market Volumes for OEM Business and After Sales Service as well as Prospects for Market Developments of Infrastructure, Rolling Stock, Products and Manufacturers
This study entitled “High-speed and Intercity Transport – Global Market Trends” pro-vides a comprehensive overview into the structure, installed bases, procurements, manufacturers, and development trends in the rail vehicle segment analysed.
Based on current developments in rail transport, this study delivers an analysis and sound estimate of the market for High-speed and Intercity trains. Based on the successful preceding study from 2013 and experience from more than 2 000 projects in the field of railway tech-nology, in the past few years SCI Verkehr has verified the central input data and optimised its forecasting methodology. We have reviewed and updated all chapters of the preceding study. In addition, SCI Verkehr has performed an improved product segmentation for valua-tion of installed bases and age structures.
In concrete terms, this market study “High-Speed and Intercity Transport – Global Mar-ket Trends” includes:
– A regionally differentiated and country-specific look at the worldwide market for high-speed and intercity transport
– A comprehensive analysis of the current fleet stocks concerning the speed segment, quantities and age structures as well as future procurement potential
– An overview of the most important drivers behind the procurement and refurbishment
– Analysis of market shares of manufacturers as well as a forecast of the vehicle demand
– Overview of the manufacturers of high-speed trains and intercity multiple units including a brief description of the current range of products and services
– Excursus on alternative high-speed concepts and implications on the high-speed market
– A condensed presentation (diagrams) of important fleet-specific features by regions and countries
– A list of all rolling stock fleets and the current procurements of high-speed trains and in-tercity multiple units in the annex to the study
All in all, the study provides a well-founded analysis of the worldwide market for high-speed trains and intercity multiple units. The study therefore provides both companies established in the railway industry as well as operators with important information for operational and strategic planning.
SCI Verkehr analyses markets from the bottom up: based upon systematic observation of the railway markets, a detailed worldwide database of the installed base and projects forms the basis for in-depth studies on the various segments of the railway industry and the most im-portant regional focus markets. Within the scope of the continuous creation of the Multi Client Series, SCI Verkehr systematically analyses more than 100 core countries for railway tech-nology.
The study is available in English from August 2016.
Contact: Ann Kathrin Arntz Ahmed Yasin
E-Mail: [email protected] [email protected] Phone: +49 (221) 93178-0 +49 (221) 93178-0 Fax: +49 (221) 93178-78 +49 (221) 93178-78
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© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • High-speed and Intercity Transport – Global Market Trends • 4
CONTENT
1 Executive Summary: The Worldwide Market for High-speed and Intercity Trains ....................................................................................................................18
2 Market Definition and Methodology of the Study ................................................26
2.1 Objective of the Market Analysis ............................................................................... 26
2.2 Delimitation of the Railway Technology Market ........................................................ 27
2.3 Market Analysis Methodology ................................................................................... 34
3 Manufacturers of High-Speed Trains ...................................................................39
3.1 Alstom ........................................................................................................................ 39
3.2 Bombardier Transportation........................................................................................ 41
3.3 Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles (CAF) ..................................................... 43
3.4 China Railway Rolling Stock Corp Ltd (CRRC) ........................................................ 46
3.5 Hitachi Rail Systems .................................................................................................. 48
3.6 Hyundai Rotem .......................................................................................................... 50
3.7 Kawasaki Rolling Stock ............................................................................................. 53
3.8 Kinki Sharyo ............................................................................................................... 54
3.9 Nippon Sharyo ........................................................................................................... 56
3.10 Patentes Talgo ........................................................................................................... 58
3.11 Siemens Mobility........................................................................................................ 60
3.12 Stadler Rail Group ..................................................................................................... 61
4 The Market for High-Speed Trains in Western Europe .......................................65
4.1 Total Market ............................................................................................................... 65
4.2 Germany .................................................................................................................... 71
4.3 France ........................................................................................................................ 76
4.4 United Kingdom ......................................................................................................... 81
4.5 The Netherlands ........................................................................................................ 85
4.6 Belgium ...................................................................................................................... 87
4.7 Spain .......................................................................................................................... 89
4.8 Italy ............................................................................................................................. 94
4.9 Austria ........................................................................................................................ 99
4.10 Switzerland .............................................................................................................. 100
4.11 Portugal.................................................................................................................... 102
4.12 Norway ..................................................................................................................... 104
4.13 Sweden .................................................................................................................... 106
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4.14 Denmark ................................................................................................................... 109
4.15 Finland ...................................................................................................................... 110
5 The Market for High-Speed Trains in Eastern Europe ...................................... 112
5.1 Total Market .............................................................................................................. 112
5.2 Poland ...................................................................................................................... 118
5.3 Turkey ....................................................................................................................... 119
5.4 Czech Republic ........................................................................................................ 121
5.5 Slovenia .................................................................................................................... 122
5.6 Other markets ........................................................................................................... 123
6 The Market for High-Speed Trains in Asia ........................................................ 126
6.1 Total Market .............................................................................................................. 126
6.2 Japan ........................................................................................................................ 131
6.3 China ........................................................................................................................ 135
6.4 South Korea ............................................................................................................. 145
6.5 Taiwan ...................................................................................................................... 148
6.6 Indonesia .................................................................................................................. 149
6.7 Malaysia/Singapore .................................................................................................. 150
6.8 India .......................................................................................................................... 151
6.9 Thailand .................................................................................................................... 153
6.10 Vietnam .................................................................................................................... 155
6.11 Other markets ........................................................................................................... 156
7 The Market for High-Speed Trains in North America ........................................ 158
7.1 Total Market .............................................................................................................. 158
7.2 USA .......................................................................................................................... 162
7.3 Canada ..................................................................................................................... 166
7.4 Mexico ...................................................................................................................... 168
8 The Market for High-Speed Trains in South and Central America ................... 169
8.1 Total Market .............................................................................................................. 169
8.2 Brazil ......................................................................................................................... 171
8.3 Argentina .................................................................................................................. 172
9 The Market for High-Speed Trains in the CIS ................................................... 174
9.1 Total Market .............................................................................................................. 174
9.2 Russia ....................................................................................................................... 178
9.3 Kazakhstan ............................................................................................................... 181
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9.4 Uzbekistan ............................................................................................................... 181
9.5 Ukraine ..................................................................................................................... 182
9.6 Other Markets .......................................................................................................... 183
10 The Market for High-Speed Trains in Africa/Middle East ..................................184
10.1 Total Market ............................................................................................................. 184
10.2 Morocco ................................................................................................................... 189
10.3 Saudi Arabia ............................................................................................................ 190
10.4 Qatar ........................................................................................................................ 192
10.5 South Africa ............................................................................................................. 193
10.6 Iran ........................................................................................................................... 194
10.7 Libya ........................................................................................................................ 195
10.8 Egypt ........................................................................................................................ 196
10.9 Other Markets .......................................................................................................... 197
11 The Market for High-Speed Trains in Australia/the Pacific Region ..................199
12 Alternative High-Speed Train Systems ..............................................................201 ANNEX
Annex A: Fleet Structures ..............................................................................................205
1 Western Europe ..................................................................................................205
2 Eastern Europe ...................................................................................................212
3 Asia .....................................................................................................................218
4 North America .....................................................................................................224
5 CIS ......................................................................................................................226
6 Africa/Middle East ..............................................................................................230
Annex B: Stock of the Railway Operators .....................................................................234
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Extract from the text, example region Market Overview
The market for high-speed transport in Eastern Europe is very heterogeneous and only par-tially of interest with regard to the high-speed train market. Most countries work on their con-ventional rail neetwork, the aim mostly being a combination of rail freight and regular pas-senger transport. Only few countries have a high-speed […] […] Market Environment/Transport Market The overall economic conditions in Eastern Europe and therefore the potential for high-speed transport vary considerably from country to country. […] The strongly outdated railway infrastructure needs to be renewed and has meanwhile bene-fited from the partly regained economic development and the intensive funding by the Euro-pean Union. […] All infrastructure projects in Eastern Europe under construction or planned concern a maxi-mum speed between 200 km/h and 300 km/h. SCI Verkehr expects that the high-speed rail network in this region will increase from xxx km at the end of 2015 to around xxx km at the end of the decade. […]
Figure 1:
Market overview high-speed
trains in Eastern Europe
Eastern Europe Trend
Units 2015 60
Average development 2015-2020 (p.a.) 14.3%
Average age 2015 (in years) 3
Average volume 2014-2016 (million EUR p.a.) 240
Average development 2015-2020 (p.a.) -8.7%
Volatility market volume 2015-2020 (SD) 25.7%
Average volume 2014-2016 (million EUR p.a.) 30
Average development 2015-2020 (p.a.) 23.9%
Volatility market volume 2015-2020 (SD) 28.9%
Boom/strong growth small growth stagnation small decrease clear decline
Insta
lled
base
Mark
et
for
new
veh
icle
s
Mark
et
for
aft
er
sale
s
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Installed base/age structure There are currently xxx single-deck HSTs in operation in xxx countries in Eastern Europe.
Figure 2:
High-speed infrastructure
development in Eastern
Europe by maximum
speed by 2020
Figure 3:
Fleet overview high-
speed trains Eastern
Europe 2015 by country
(number of units)
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
until 1980 until 1990 until 2000 until 2005 until 2010 until 2015 until 2020
Installed base and development of high-speed rail infrastructure [route-km]
200 to 249 km/h 250 to 300 km/h above 300 km/h © SCI Verkehr GmbH
0 10 20 30 40 50
Slovenia
Czech Republic
Turkey
Poland
Installed Base / Country [Number of Units]
IHST HST VHST© SCI Verkehr GmbH
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The largest part of the fleet was delivered in xxx. Accordingly, the average age sank to around xxx years. […]
Figure 4:
Age structure high-speed
trains Eastern Europe 2015
(number of units)
Manufacturers/Products/Market Shares Around xxx high-speed trains have been delivered to Eastern Europe in the last five years […]. In the next few years, xxx will receive xxx additional eight-car units of type xxx from xxx. No additional orders are to be expected in xxx after the upgrade projects have been com-pleted […]
Figure 5:
Market shares high-speed
train manufacturers in
Eastern Europe
in the period 2011 to 2015
(number of units
Up to now, the Eastern European high-speed rail market has been shaped by three products to be complemented by a fourth:
0
10
20
30
40
50
up to1975
1976-1980
1981-1985
1986-1990
1991-1995
1996-2000
2001-2005
2006-2010
2011-2015
Installed Base / Age Structure [Number of Units]
IHST
HST
VHST
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
N
49%
49%
2%
Delivery 2011-2015 / Market Shares [Number of Units]
Alstom
Stadler
Siemens
In total:~ 40 Units
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
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The Pendolinos in operation in the Czech Republic were produced by Alstom (formerly con-sortium CKD/Fiat/Siemens) in the seven-part series 680. Alstom also supplied the three-car units based on the Pendolino to the Slovenian state railway SZ. In addition, PKP received 20 seven-car Pendolino Poland (ETR 610) by 2015. […] Market volume and market development The current market volume for new vehicles is around EUR xxx million per year and for after-sales services around EUR xxx million per year.
Driver of further development
Brief description Relevance 5-year trend
Investment funds
The investment resources of most railways […]
Infrastructure
The upgrading of high-speed lines will lead to […]
Demand for mobility Generally stagnant demand in long-distance transport on the one hand, large increase in demand for quick and attractive connections between the cities on the other hand […]
Fleet structure
[…]
Competition
There are several private operators […]
[…] the OEM market is expected to […]. In the end, Eastern Europe is a small market with singular projects in the high-speed segment. This of course also means that a single large order can boost the market significantly. This condition does not apply for after-sales services […]
Figure 6:
Analysis and forecast of
market volume for new
vehicles and after-sales
service for high-speed
trains in Eastern Europe in
the period 2012 to 2021 (in
EUR million)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Market Volume [EUR million]
New vehicles (OEM) After sales services
Marktvolumen Neufahrzeuge und After-i
Marktvolumen Neufahrzeuge und After-i
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
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Extract from the text, example country markets Infrastructure development/transport market […] However, the current eight stops will be extended by three more stations in the middle section of the line around Taichung City by late 2015 and a new end station at the edge of Taipeh (Nangang) with a new line section of less than 10 km by mid-2016. Because of sub-sidence, high investments of an estimated EUR xxx billion in the high-speed network were necessary to keep up operation.
High-speed rail infrastructure projects currently known
Route section Length [km] Current status Speed [km/h] Completition
Kaohsiung - Taipei 345 Ready 300 2006
Taipei - Nangang 9.2 Ready 300 2016
Vehicle fleet, age structure and market shares The original fleet of xxx 12-car high-speed trains of the xxx type was delivered by a Japanese consortium of Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Nippon Sharyo, Toshiba and Hitachi between 2004 and 2005. They are based on the Shinkansen series 700 and are somewhat faster with a maximum speed of 300 km/h. In 2012, another contract was awarded to the Japanese con-sortium as part of the first option from the existing contract for another four 12-car units. They are to meet the constantly increasing demand and the three new stations which were put into operation in 2015. Important Current and Planned Procurement Projects As part of the option pulled in 2012, THSRC has two further options. Following the clearance of the financial issues and a reduction in fares, a further (although smaller) fleet increase is possible.
Market volume and market development The development of the Taiwanese high-speed train market will largely be limited to renewal and maintenance as no further lines are planned. Fleet renewal will not be necessary in the near future as the fleet is still very young. Smaller fleet extensions also as part of existing options are possible due to the increasing passenger figures.
Vehicle type
Units/cars per unit
Level Delivery Comment
700T 8/12 SD xxx Two options within the follow-up order from 2012.
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Extract from the text, example manufacturers of high-speed trains
Kawasaki Rolling Stock
Overview
Head Office: 1-14-5, Kaigan, Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-8315, Japan
Website: www.khi.co.jp
Shareholders: Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (3.54%), Nippon Life Insurance Co. (3.44%), JFE Hold-
ings, Inc. (3.36%)
Management: Makoto Ogawara (President of Rolling Stock Company)
Employees (2013): ~4 500
Turnover (2015/2016): EUR 1.1 billion (JPY 148 billion)
Profit (2015/2016): EUR 70 million (JPY 9.3 billion, operating income)
Kawasaki Rolling Stock is the rolling stock division of Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd. (KHI), which incorporates
the operating units Kawasaki Rail Car Inc. based in Yonkers (New York, USA) for serving the North American
market and Rolling Stock Company (headquartered in Hyogo-Ku).
The company is positioned as a leading Japanese manufacturer and focuses on the production of metros, EMUs
and high-speed trains. Kawasaki’s main sales regions are the domestic market of Japan, other Asian countries
and North America. Major overseas orders outside Asia included new metro models for the Washington Metro-
politan Area Transit Authority and New York City Transit. Kawasaki’s goal is to further strengthen its position in
the US market and in high-speed rail projects in particular.
Revenue has been fluctuating between JPY 120 and 190 billion over the last ten years. In 2015 Kawasaki Rolling
Stock company reached a turnover of JPY 147 billion, approximately the same level as in 2013 and 2009 and a
clear improvement compared to other years. The increase is reasoned to stem from relatively large metro orders
from Singapore and Taiwan. From 2016 on, revenues could slightly decrease again in the short term. Profitability
increased compared to the two previous years. Kawasaki has been able to increase profitability since 2012,
recovering it to the same level as in 2010. Revenues from rolling stock have been around EUR 1 billion in the
past years.
Sites of final assembly
Kawasaki Rolling Stock has three production sites. The largest, Hyogo Works (Kobe, Japan), has existed since 1906 and supplies rolling stock across the whole world. From Hyogo Works, Kawasaki supplies rolling stock domestically and internationally.
High-speed trains are manufactured at the main site in Kobe, Japan.
Country Site Products Remarks
Japan Hyogo Works (Ko-be)
HST, E-loco, D-loco, EMU, PC, metro, LRV, FW, engineering
Employees: Approx. 3 200
Production capacity: 960 cars and 96 locomotives p.a.
Area: 223 000 m2
Important products Market shares (2011–2015)
Market positioning / main contracts
Shinkansen (various)
18% (AS)
14% (WW)
(both market shares within
Japanese consor-tia)
As part of Japanese consortia, Kawasaki has participated in various Shinkansen HST series deliveries. It supplied, for example, four series H5 trains to JR East in partnership with Hitachi.
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ANNEX A: EXAMPLE Taiwan
Installed Base / Types Delivery 2011-2015 / Types
Installed Base / Age Structure Delivery 2011-2015 / Market Shares
Installed Base / Top Speed Delivery 2011-2015 / Top Speed
100%
Installed Base / Types [Number of Units]
Shinkansen
In total:~ 35 Units
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
100%
Delivery 2011 - 2015 / Types [Number of Units]
Shinkansen
In total:~ 5 Units
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
0
10
20
30
40
50
up to1975
1976-1980
1981-1985
1986-1990
1991-1995
1996-2000
2001-2005
2006-2010
2011-2015
Installed Base / Age Structure [Number of Units]
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
N
100%
Delivery 2011 - 2015 / Market Shares [Number of Units]
Shinkansen
In total:~ 5 Units
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
0
10
20
30
40
50
190 - 249 km/h 250 - 300 km/h >300 km/h
Installed Base / Top Speed [Number of Units]
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
N
0
10
20
30
40
50
190 - 249 km/h 250 - 300 km/h >300 km/h
Delivery 2011 - 2015 / Top Speed [Number of Units]
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
N
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ANNEX C: EXAMPLE
Country Operator Type Units/ Cars
Delivery* Main supplier Top speed (in km/h)
Power (in kW)
Germany DB AG ICE 1 | Serie: 401 4/13 1990 - 1993 Siemens / Bom-bardier / Alstom
280 9 600
Germany DB AG ICE 1 | Serie: 401 13/14 1990 - 1993 Siemens / Bom-bardier / Alstom
280 9 600
Germany DB AG ICE 1 | Serie: 401 42/14 1990 - 1993 Siemens / Bom-bardier / Alstom
280 9 600
Germany DB AG ICE-S | Serie: 410.1 1/3 1996 - 1996 Siemens / Adtranz 400 13 600
Germany DB AG ICE 2 | Serie: 402 44/8 1996 - 1998 Siemens / Bom-bardier
280 4 800
Germany DB AG ICE T | Serie: 415 11/5 1998 - 2000 Siemens / Bom-bardier / Alstom
230 3 000
Germany DB AG ICE T | Serie: 411.1 31/7 1998 - 2000 Siemens / Bom-bardier / Alstom
230 4 000
Germany DB AG ICE TD | Serie: 605 19/4 1999 - 2000 Siemens 200 2 240
Germany DB AG ICE 3 | Serie: 406.1 13/8 1999 - 2001 Siemens / Bom-bardier
330 8 000
Germany DB AG ICE 3 | Serie: 403.1 37/8 1999 - 2001 Siemens / Bom-bardier
330 8 000
Germany DB AG ICE 3 | Serie: 403.2 13/8 2004 - 2005 Siemens / Bom-bardier
330 8 000
Germany DB AG ICE T | Serie: 411.2 17/7 2004 - 2005 Siemens / Bom-bardier / Alstom
230 4 000
Germany DB AG ICE T | Serie: 411.2 8/7 2006 - 2007 Siemens / Bom-bardier / Alstom
230 4 000
Germany DB AG ICE 3 MF | Serie: 407 Mehrsystem (Velaro D)
16/8 2013 - 2015 Siemens 320 8 000
Germany DB AG IC x - preserial trains 2/8 2014 - 2015 Siemens 249 n.a
Germany DB AG ICE 3 MF | Serie: 407 Mehrsystem (Velaro D)
1/8 2015 - 2015 Siemens 320 8 000
Germany DB AG IC x - Version K3s 85/12 2017 - 2021 Siemens 250 9 900
Germany DB AG IC x - Version K1n 45/7 2020 - 2022 Siemens 230 4 950
*Future delivery dates are based on manufacturer information or estimated by SCI Verkehr.
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