heft phase i closeout - nasa watch · heft phase i closeout ... heft drm analyses helped draw...

NASAWATCH.COM

Na#onalAeronau#csandSpaceAdministra#on

HEFTPhaseICloseout

SteeringCouncil

September2,2010

NASAWATCH.COM

Agenda

 Summary/KeyFindings SteveAltemus

 DRMReview KentJoosten

 TechnologyFeedForwardandGapsChrisCulbert

 LaunchVehicleAngeliaWalker

 CrewedSpacecraN SteveLabbe CostStudyHistory RitaWillcoxon

 PhaseISummary&Conclusions SteveAltemus

 TransiQontoPhaseII JohnOlson

Pre‐Decisional:ForNASAInternalUseOnly 2

NASAWATCH.COM

SummaryofPhaseI

  DevelopedaninvestmentporToliothatstrikesabalanceofnewdevelopments,technology,andoperaQonalprogramswithaneyetowardsanewwayofexploring.

  CreatedapointofdepartureDRMthatisflexibleandcanevolveoverQmetosupportmulQpledesQnaQonswiththeidenQfiedsystems.

  IdenQfiedaminimumsubsetofelementsneededtoconductearlierbeyondLEOmissions.

  InfusedkeytechnologydevelopmentsthatshouldbegininearnestandidenQfiedgapswhichshouldhelpinformaddiQonaltechnologyprioriQzaQonoverandabovetheNEOfocusedDRM.

  CostedtheDRMusingtradiQonalcosQngmethodologies.

  DeterminedalternaQvedevelopmentopQonsarerequiredtoaddressthecostandscheduleshorTalls.


NASAWATCH.COM

  Inordertocloseonaffordabilityandshortenthedevelopmentcycle,NASAmustchangeitstradiQonalapproachtohumanspacesystemsacquisiQonanddevelopment

  DevelopmentPath•  Balancelargetradi#onalcontrac#ngprac#ceswith

fixedpriceorcostchallengescoupledwithin‐housedevelopment

•  Usetheexis#ngworkforce,infrastructure,andcontractswherepossible

•  Leveragecivilservantworkforcetodoleadingedgedevelopmentwork

  AlternaQveDevelopmentApproaches•  Takeadvantageofexis#ngresourcestoini#atethe

developmentandhelpreduceupfrontcosts-  LaunchVehicleCoreStage-  Mul#‐MissionSpaceExplora#onVehicle

-  InSpacePropulsion

–  SolarElectricPropulsionFreighter

–  CryoPropulsionStage/UpperStage

-  DeepSpaceHabita#on

  LaunchVehicle•  Ini#atedevelopmentofaevolvablemoderateSSP‐

derivedin‐lineHLV100tclassinFY2011

  CrewedSpacecraN•  DevelopanOrion‐deriveddirectreturnvehicleand

in‐housedevelopedMul#‐MissionSpaceExplora#onVehicle

•  DonotdevelopadedicatedISSERV•  FurthertradeCTVfunc#onalityandHLLVcrewra#ng

costsagainstCommercialCrewu#liza#onforexplora#on

  Groundopsprocessingandlaunchinfrastructure•  Ini#ategroundopssystemdevelopmentconsistent

withspacecraWandlaunchvehicledevelopment

  TechnologyDevelopment•  Focustechnologydevelopmentonnearterm

explora#ongoals(NEOby2025)

•  ReviseinvestmentsinFTD,XPRM,HLPT,ETDD,andHRPandotherstoalignwiththeadvancedsystemscapabili#esiden#fiedintheframework

•  Re‐phasetechnologyinvestmentstosupportthedefinedhumanexplora#onstrategy,missionandarchitecture


RecommendaQons

NASAWATCH.COM

DRMIntroducQon

  PreviousHEFTDRManalyseshelpeddrawconclusionsregardingsystemrequirementsfortheNEOmissionsexamined•  In‐spacepropulsiontechnologyadvancesandhighsystemreusabilitydidnotobviateneedforhighercapacitylauncher(excessivenumberofcommerciallaunches,DRMSet1)

•  Commercialon‐orbitrefuelingdidnotobviateneedforhighercapacitylauncher(excessivenumberofcommerciallaunches,DRMSet2).Commerciallaunchrateavailableforexplora#onmissionssignificantlylimitedbycostsofinfrastructureexpansion.

  “Hybrid”DRManalysis(“DRM4”)presentedtoSteeringCouncil17August.AddiQonalanalysisperformedtoassess:•  “Balanced”HLLV/Commerciallaunchers

•  Impactsof“moderate”HLLVcapacity•  Impactsofdele#onofsolarelectricpropulsion(SEP)technology/system

•  Qualita#veassessmentofSEP


NASAWATCH.COM

NEO

ConceptofOperaQons(NEOCrewedMissions,100tHLLV)


LEO407kmx407km

EDL

Dock All Elements

DSH

EARTH

30d at NEO

MMSEV continues operations

at NEO

CPS #1

E-ML1

Staging Location of SEP #2 is Target

Dependent

EP Module

SEP #1 SEP #2

SEP #1

CPS#1

Kick stage

DSH

HLLV ‐ 10

0t

HLLV ‐ 10

0t

159d Transit

4d Transit 339d Transit 339d Transit

CPS#2

SEP #2

EP Module

MMSEV

CTV

CPS #2

HLLV ‐ 10

0t

193d Transit

CTV SM

MMSEV

CTV w/Crew

CPS #2

HLLV ‐ 10

0t

OR

CREW LAUNCH

Commercial Crew

NASAWATCH.COM

In‐SpaceMissionElementsforDRM4


CrewTransferVehicle(CTV)

MulQMissionSpace

ExploraQonVehicle(MMSEV)

Mass(kg)** 13,500 6,700 23,600 6,300 12,600 10,600 2,900

Diameter(m) 5.2 4.54.57(maxstowed)

1.9 7.5 5.75(stowed) 5.75(stowed)

Length(m) 4.2 6.8 7.7* 3 12.3 9 5.1

PressurizedVol.(m3) 18.4 12 115 n/a n/a n/a n/a

DeepSpaceHabitat(DSH)

CryogenicPropulsionStage

(CPS)

SolarElectricPropulsion

(SEP)

NOTES:

•  Elements Not To Scale

•  * Habitat length with adapters: 9.8 m

•  ** Inert mass shown for CPS, SEP and EPM

ElectricPropulsionModule(EPM)

KickStage

NASAWATCH.COM

SystemsExtensibility/EvoluQonforOtherDesQnaQons


CTV

HLLVx3

MMSEV

CPS

TransitHAB

SEP

NEO Lunar Orbit Lunar Surface*

CTV+ CTV+

HLLVx1

HLLVx2

RoverCab,AscentCab?

CPS CPSx2

SurfaceHab

HEO/GEO

CTV

HLLVx1

CPS

MMSEV

Phobos/Deimos Mars*

CTV+ CTV+

HLLV+xN

HLLV+xN

MMSEVRoverCab,AscentCab?

CPSxN CPSxN

SurfaceHab,TransitHab+

TransitHab+

SEP+,orNEP

NEP

* AddiEonal systems required for these desEnaEons

NASAWATCH.COM Pre‐Decisional:ForNASAInternalUseOnly 9

DRM4:100tHLLVw/CommercialCrew

CampaignProfile


2011

2020

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2021

2030

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

CTV

TestFlight

CTVTestatISSw/CommercialCrew

toE‐ML1HLLV

MMSEV

SEP

CPS

DSH

CommercialCrew/Cargo

InflatableDemo

Flagship

FullScaleDeployment

TestFlight

L1missionw/~55tofOpportunity

Payloads

toNEO(viaE‐ML1)toHEO

HEO E‐ML1 E‐ML1

NEO

Entry

HEO(NoCrew)

9 10

2031

IndicatesflighttoLEO

30kWeFlagship

High‐SpeedEllip#calReentyTest

RoboQcPrecursor

RoboQcPrecursor

NEOMissionConOps


DRM4:100tHLLVw/CommercialCrew&CTV‐EPrimetoRepresentaQveNEO

IntegratedCostEsQmates

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

$inM

illions

Years

ProgramIntegra#onRobo#csPrecursorCTVCPSMMSEVDSHSEPCommercialCrewDevelopmentCommercialHLLVMissionOpera#onsGroundOpera#onsandInfrastructureDevelopment

NASAWATCH.COM


DRMReview

SteeringCouncil

September2,2010

NASAWATCH.COM

IntroducQon

  PreviousHEFTDRManalyseshelpeddrawconclusionsregardingsystemrequirementsfortheNEOmissionsexamined•  In‐spacepropulsiontechnologyadvancesandhighsystemreusabilitydidnotobviateneedforhighercapacitylauncher(excessivenumberofcommerciallaunches,DRMSet1)

•  Commercialon‐orbitrefuelingdidnotobviateneedforhighercapacitylauncher(excessivenumberofcommerciallaunches,DRMSet2).Commerciallaunchrateavailableforexplora#onmissionssignificantlylimitedbycostsofinfrastructureexpansion.

  “Hybrid”DRManalysis(“DRM4”)presentedtoSteeringCouncil17August.AddiQonalanalysisperformedtoassess:•  “Balanced”HLLV/Commerciallaunchers

•  Impactsof“moderate”HLLVcapacity•  Impactsofdele#onofsolarelectricpropulsion(SEP)technology/system

•  Qualita#veassessmentofSEP


NASAWATCH.COM

NEO



LEO407kmx407km

EDL

Dock All Elements

DSH

EARTH

30d at NEO

MMSEV continues operations

at NEO

CPS #1

E-ML1

Staging Location of SEP #2 is Target

Dependent

EP Module

SEP #1 SEP #2

SEP #1

CPS#1

Kick stage

DSH

HLLV ‐ 10

0t

HLLV ‐ 10

0t

159d Transit

4d Transit 339d Transit 339d Transit

CPS#2

SEP #2

EP Module

MMSEV

CTV

CPS #2

HLLV ‐ 10

0t

193d Transit

CTV SM

MMSEV

CTV w/Crew

CPS #2

HLLV ‐ 10

0t

OR

CREW LAUNCH

Commercial Crew

ResultsinCxP‐like“1.5launch”architecturealongwithassociatedissues

Low‐boiloffCPSmaynotberequired



CampaignProfile


2011

2020

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2021

2030

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

CTV

TestFlight


toE‐ML1HLLV

MMSEV

SEP

CPS

DSH


InflatableDemo

Flagship

FullScaleDeployment

TestFlight


Payloads


HEO E‐ML1 E‐ML1

NEO

Entry

HEO(NoCrew)

9 10

2031


30kWeFlagship


RoboQcPrecursor

RoboQcPrecursor

NEOMissionConOps

NASAWATCH.COM

MassAllocaQon


DRMHybrid:Chemical/SEP100tHLLV

Elements are not to scale Elephant stands and element adapters will use unallocated mass

100tHLLV

NASAWATCH.COM

NEO



LEO407kmx407km

Dock All Elements

EARTH

CPS #1

E-ML1

SEP #1 DSH

SEP #1

HLV ‐ 70

t

339d Transit SEP#1 transfers

CPS #1 to L1

339d Transit SEP#2 transfers

DSH to L1

HLV ‐ 70

t

HLV ‐ 70

t

4d Transit

CPS #2

Kick Stage

SEP #2 EPM Kick Stage

HLV ‐ 70

t

CPS #2 CTV

MMSEV

Kick Stage

HLV ‐ 70

t

Both stacks leave LEO at the same

time

L1andbeyondopssameas100top#on

Kick Stage Kick Stage Kick Stage

EPM

Commercial Crew

CTV

MMSEV

Kick Stage

HLV ‐ 70

t

OR Could Potentially Replace One HLLV Lanch


MassAllocaQon

DRMHybrid:Chemical/SEP70tHLLV

Elements are not to scale Elephant stands and element adapters will use unallocated mass

HLLV2hasnegaQveunallocatedmass(‐1.15t)

70tHLLV

NASAWATCH.COM

ComparisonofCrewLaunches


70t75t85t100t

NASAWATCH.COM

NEO


100tHLLV–AllChemicalIn‐SpacePropulsion

ConceptofOperaQons

LEO

5 X HLLV ‐ 10

0t

5X Cryo Stages

EDL

Cryo Stage #2

Cryo Stage #3 DSH

EARTH

211d Transit 126d Transit

30d at NEO

MMSEV

Cryo Stage #4

Cryo Stage #5

Elements are not to scale

Cryo Stage #1

Dock All Elements

CTV SM

HLLV ‐ 10

0t

CTV-AE

MMSEV

DSH

Kick stage

Kick Stage

CTV-AE

MMSEV

DSH

OR

NASAWATCH.COM Pre‐Decisional:ForNASAInternalUseOnly

RiskAssessmentComparisons

20

Area SEP(100t) SEP(70t) Chem(100t) Chem(70t)

#ofUniqueElements 7 7 5 5

Total#ofElements 9 11 9 12

#Launches(HLLV) 3 5 6 9

#AR&Ds 8 9 9 12

#ofUndocks 10 14 10 13

#PropellantTransfers 0 0 0 0

ChemicalPropBurns 7 9 14 19

MissionLife#me 841Days 930Days 821Days 1091Days

CrewTime 394Days 394Days 371Days 371Days

IMLEOMass(t) 254 262 537 591

NEOArrivalStackMass(t) 57 57 109 121

NASAWATCH.COM

Benefits&Highlights

  “Gear”RaQoforSEPmissionssignificantlybeperthanchemicalstages

 Missionflexibility–departure/returnwindows

  SEPaffordsmore“graceful”,lesscatastrophicpropulsionsystemfailuremodes

  SubstanQalpoweravailableatdesQnaQonandduringcoastperiods  ReusablearchitecturepotenQal

21

SolarElectricPropulsion

Pre‐Decisional:ForNASAInternalUseOnly

Baseline13.5tCTV

Slope=7.29

Slope=4.33

NASAWATCH.COM

DRMAssessmentSummary


  ObservaQons•  BalancedHLLV/Commerciallaunchers–Reasonablebalanceofcommercialand

governmentlaunchesachievablethroughrobo#cprecursors,flagshipsandfull‐scaledemos

•  ImpactsofmoderateHLLVcapacity–100tclasslauncherallowssinglelaunchofsystemsneededforcrewedflighttoHEO,reduceslaunchesneededforNEOby~50%

•  Impactsofsolarelectricpropulsion–SEParchitecturereducesbyhalfthemasstoLEOanddecreasessensi#vitytomassgrowthby~60%

•  QualitaQveassessmentofSEP–offersuniquemissionflexibility,reduc#oninriskandextensibilitytomoreambi#ousexplora#onmissions

  TopPrioriQesLookingForward•  Performfunc#onalitytradesamongstarchitectureelements,par#cularlyCTV/MMSEV/Hab

•  UnderstandCTVfunc#onalityandrela#onshiptoCommercialCrewthroughopera#onalconceptanalysisincludingcon#ngencies

•  Tradereusabilityofkeytransporta#on/habita#onelements

•  Performcampaignanalysis–othermissionsofinterestandhowwellDRMelementsandtechnologiesplay(e.g.,CPSevolu#ontoHLLVupperstage,orviceversa)

•  Performboroms‐upelementdesign,layoutandpackagingforSEP,MMSEVandHabincludingradia#onprotec#onstrategies

NASAWATCH.COM


TechnologyFeedForwardandGaps

SteeringCouncil

September2,2010

NASAWATCH.COM

Summary

  HumanmissionstoNEOsrequireafocusedtechnologyinvestmentporTolio•  Theagencyisalreadyinves#ngineveryareaneededtoenablethisclassofmission,butemphasismustbeputintherightareas

•  LatestDRManalysisaddsSolarElectricPropulsiontootherareasofearlyinvestmentemphasis

  AsdefiniQonofthemissionprofilematuresandourunderstandingofthedeepspaceenvironmentimproves,addiQonaltechnologyneedsmaybeidenQfied(e.g.radiaQonprotecQonforhardware)

  CoreimprovementsinthewayNASAhasalwaysdonebusinessareneededinareassuchaslogisQcsmanagement,hardwaresupportability,soNwaredevelopment,andmissionoperaQonswithlimitedgroundsupport.Whiletheseimprovementsmaynotbedirectlytechnologyrelated,theyarecriQcaltoimplemenQngthedefinedDRM.


NASAWATCH.COM

TechnologyProgresstowardsotherDesQnaQons

25

HEFTDRM4 DRM4 OtherCrewDesQnaQon

TechnologyArea Near‐EarthObjects EM‐L1/LunarOrbit MarsOrbitLunarSurface(Long

Dur.)MarsSurface

PropulsionTechnologies

HeavyLiNPropulsionTechnology ˜ ! ˜ ! ! ˜ ! !

In‐SpaceChemicalPropulsion ˜ ! ˜ ! ˜ ! ˜ ! !

HighEfficiencyIn‐SpacePropulsion ˜ ! ˜ ! ! ˜ ! !

CryogenicFluidManagement(e.g.zeroboiloff) ˜ ! ˜ ! ! ˜ ! !

CryogenicFluidTransfer ! ! ! ! !

TechnologiesforHumanHealth&HabitaQon

LifeSupportandHabitaQon ˜ ! ˜ ! ! ! !

ExploraQonMedicalCapability ˜ ! ˜ ! ! ! !

SpaceRadiaQonProtecQon ˜ ! ˜ ! ! ˜ ! !

HumanHealthandCountermeasures ˜ ! ˜ ! ! ! !

BehavioralHealthandPerformance ˜ ! ˜ ! ˜ ! ! !

SpaceHumanFactors&Habitability ˜ ! ˜ ! ˜ ! ! !

SymbolTechnologydevelopmentcomplete ˜ ! TechnologyRequiredforthisdes#na#on

Addi#onaltech.dev.required ! Technologyisapplicabletothisdes#na#onTechnologynotdeveloped ! NotApplicable

Needmoredata

NASAWATCH.COM

TechnologyProgresstowardsotherDesQnaQons(cont’d)

26



Dur.)MarsSurface

PowerTechnologies

HighEfficiencySpacePowerStorage ˜ ! ˜ ! ! ! !

HighPowerSpaceElectricalPwrGeneraQon ˜ ! ˜ ! ! ! !

EntryDescent&LandingTechnologies

HighSpeedEarthre‐entry(>11km/s) ˜ ! ˜ ! ! ˜ ! !

Aeroshell&Aerocapture ! ! ! ! !

PrecisionLanding ! ! ! ! !

EVA&RoboQcsTechnologies

EVATechnology ˜ ! ˜ ! ˜ ! ! !

HumanExploraQonTeleroboQcs ˜ ! ˜ ! ˜ ! ˜ ! !

HumanRoboQcSystems ˜ ! ˜ ! ˜ ! ! !

SurfaceMobility ! ! ! ! !



Needmoredata

NASAWATCH.COM

TechnologyProgresstowardsotherDesQnaQons(cont’d)

27



Needmoredata



Dur.)MarsSurface

SoNware&ElectronicTechnologies

AutonomousSystems ! ! ! ! !

AdvancedAvionics/SoNware ! ! ! ! !

AdvancedNav/Comm ! ! ! ! !

OtherTechnologies

AdvancedThermalControl&ProtecQonSystems ˜ ! ˜ ! ˜ ! ! !

AutomatedRendezvousandDocking ˜ ! ˜ ! ˜ ! ˜ ! ˜ !

Supportability&LogisQcs ! ! ! ! !

LightweightMaterials&Structures ! ! ! ! !

EnvironmentMiQgaQon(e.g.Dust) ! ! ! ! !

In‐SituResourceUQlizaQon ! ! ! ! !

NASAWATCH.COM


ExtensibilityofSolarElectricPropulsionStage

2015 2020 2025

Tech

nolo

gy D

emon

stra

tion

Com

plex

ity a

nd A

vaila

ble

Pow

er

FTD‐1SEPStage/ARDVNEXTIon+30kWeFASTArray

A Bridge Technology for ESMD Human OperaNons •  NASASMDScience•  DoDOpera#onalMissions

Demonstrate SpacecraO buses with increasing power & decreasing specific mass to enable advanced electric and plasma propulsion spacecraO that will decrease trip Nmes to Mars and beyond. Each demonstraNon spacecraO bus has immediate applicaNon & payoff to other mission objecNves. NEP power system technologies are extensible to surface power.

State‐of‐Art•  <3kWedevices•  GEOCOMauxiliarypropulsion•  Planetaryscience(DS1,Dawn)

TRL9 SEP Stage 30 kW

TRL9 SEP Stage 90 kW

MegaWaO‐Class Fast‐Transit SpacecraR

300kWeSEPStageETDDAdvancedEPThruster+90kWe

•  Cargo/CrewtoNEO•  ReusableOrbitalTransfer•  LunarCargo

1,000kWe+NuclearStage• ETDDthrusterclusteroradvancedhighpowerthruster• Robo#ctoMars• HumanCargo/Precursor• ExtensibleforSurfacePower

Beyond‐>

NASAWATCH.COM

  Nowastedtechnologyinvestments•  EverytechnologyneededtoenableahumanNEOmissionalsoisneededforotherhumandes#na#ons

  TherearetechnologiesneededforotherdesQnaQonsNOTneededforahumanNEOmission;technologygaps

  GaptechnologiesthatrepresentuniqueNASAneedswillrequiretheagencytosustainkeycorecompetenciesforfuturemissions•  Precisionlanding•  Aeroshell/aerocapture•  SpaceNuclearPower•  ISRU

KeyObservaQons


NASAWATCH.COM


LaunchVehicle

SteeringCouncil

September2,2010

NASAWATCH.COM

  Issue•  AnHLViscentraltoanyrobusthumanexplora#on

program•  DelayingadecisiononHLVconfigura#onand

requirementsto2015limitsNASA’sop#onsandhampersplanning

•  ThereisnobenefittodelayingworkontheHLV,notechnologyneededforcapabilitydevelopment-  IndustryRFIResponse

  Riskifunresolved•  NASAwillloseanopportunitytobuildfromthe

exis#ngflight‐provensystems•  LosingthecapabilitytobuildanSSP‐derivedHLVwill

requirethedevelopmentofnewmanufacturing,processing,andlaunchinfrastructureataddi#onalcostandschedulerisk.

  RecommendaQon•  AcceleratetheHLVdecision–moderateHLV•  Ini#ateaShurle‐derivedinlineHLVProgram

beginninginFY2011-  Ini#al90–100trange

-  DeferupperstagetoBlockII

Note:AnRP‐basedHLV(100‐120t)andareplacementforthe(Russian)RD‐180ishighercosttoNASAandthereforerequiressupplementalfundingfromDoDtooffsetincreasedcosts


LaunchVehicle

KeyTrade 27.5’Inline 33’Inline 33’RP

Geometry ShurleETdiameter SaturnVheritage33’diameter SaturnVheritage33’diameter

Booster 4or5segmentPBANbooster,evolvabletoHTPB 5segmentPBANbooster,evolvabletoHTPB 1.25mlbfRPenginesonboosters

CoreStageEngineSSME(RS‐25D)transi#oningtoRS‐25E

RS‐68BevolvabletoRS‐68BE/O1.25mlbfthrustclassLOX/RP‐1engine

UpperStageEngine RL10A4‐3 J‐2X J‐2X‐285

ø 33.0' ø33.0'

ø 12.5'

ø 33.0'

NASAWATCH.COM

ModerateHLVOpQons–70tto100tComparison

Ini#alCapability>70t4SegmentPBANSRBs

27.5’diaCoreStageusing3RS‐25DNoUpperStage

Ini#alCapability~100t5SegmentPBANSRBs

27.5’diaCoreStageusing5RS‐25DNoUpperStage

Ul#mateCapability>130t5SegmentHTPBCompositeSRBs27.5’diaCoreStageusingRS‐25EUpperStageevolvedfromCPS

PayloadTradeOp#ons•  10mshroud(baseline)•  8.4mshroud•  OrionCrewCapable

5segPBANSRBtoCompositeHTPBSRBs

UpperStageevolvedfromCPS

USEngineTradeOp#ons•  RS‐25E•  J‐2X•  NGE(RL10replacement)

>70t ~100t>130t

OR Evolves to

NASAWATCH.COM

EvoluQonOpQons

  4/3(70t)VehicleEvoluQon•  76twith4/3vehicleincargoconfigura#on•  85tcapabilitywith4/3vehicleandaRS‐25DUpperStage•  ~105tcapabilitywith4/3vehicle,US,andHPTB/CompositecaseSRB’s

•  Performanceanalysts'recommenda#on

-  1ststageunder‐thrustedforsuperheavyliW-  Addanotherpairof4segmentboosters

  5/5(100t)VehicleEvoluQon•  101twith5/5vehicleincargoconfigura#on•  127twithRS‐25US•  >140twithRS‐25USandHPTB/compositecaseSRB’s


StarNng with 3 engine core and 4 segment motors requires both core and motor evoluNon to achieve > 130 t


CostthroughFY17‐$B

CostConceptComparisonofMajorDiscriminators

100t 70tATPtoFirstFlight 7.5years 7years

CoreStage(DDT&E+Produc#on)

4.5 4.8

RS‐25DSustaining 0.6 0.8

RS‐25E(DDT&E+Produc#on)

0.7 0

4SegmentSRBSustaining 0 2.8

5SegmentSRB(DDT&E+Produc#on)

3.0 0

FirstFlightw/RS‐25E’s FY23 FY25

TotalCostthruFY17* 11.6 11.0

*Costs do not include reserves & FTEs, and do not fully fund to the first test flight

NASAWATCH.COM 35

70tvs.100t

ModerateHLVVehicleDiscriminators

4SegmentPBANSRBs27.5’diaCoreStageusing3RS‐25DNoUpperStage

5SegmentPBANSRBs27.5’diaCoreStageusing5RS‐25D

NoUpperStage

70t 100t

  RS‐25Edevelopmentmaybedeferred

  5flightswith15RS25‐Dunits  NEOmissionflightrateandschedule

determinesproduc#onlimits•  15enginesperNEOmission(DRM4)•  Produc#onratesof20/yrachievable

  4segmentmotors(RSRM) •  Obsolescenceissues(asbestos)mayneed

tobeaddressed–possibledeltaqualof1‐5addi#onalmotors

•  Wouldrequirenewavionics(coulduseRSRMVavionics)

  ATPtofirst‐flight–6years

  RS‐25Edevelopmentrequiredup‐front

  3flightswith15RS25‐Dunits  NEOmissionflightrateandscheduledeterminesproduc#onlimits

•  15enginesperNEOmission(DRM4)

•  Produc#onratesof20/yrachievable

  5segmentmotors(RSRMV)•  Obsolescencenotanissue;5motorsplannedforqual,maybeless

•  Heritagehardwareassessedtonewenvironmentsandloads•  Parachuteschallenges(inwork)•  Newavionicssuites(inwork)

  ATPtofirst‐flight–6.5years  MPSmorecomplex(DDT&Eforwardwork)

•  MayleadtomoreMPTAtes#ng

  Basehea#ngmorechallenging(DDT&Eforwardwork)

NASAWATCH.COM

Shurle70tHLV100tHLV

RequiredGroundOperaQonsModificaQonsforAnyShuple‐DerivedHLV

36

CurrentFSSheight&MLPflameholedonotsupporteitherHLVconfigura#on.

KSCFacilityLargeCostDrivers:

• Manifest(flightsperyear,spacing,etc.)determinesKSCInfrastructure

• FlightHardwareConfiguraQon• Reusablehardwareincreasesfacilityfootprint

• ShiptoIntegrateFlightHardwareminimizesKSCfacilityfootprint

Onefill+2scrubloadarempts(3aremptstotal)withcurrentspherecapacity(without48hr.replenishment)

Onetotallauncharemptwithcurrentspherecapacity(without48hr.replenishment)

ModsrequiredforeitherHLVOpQon• NewTowerforhigh‐eleva#onaccess• NewMLBase(similarcosttoMLPmods)withTower(drivenbyrolloutstabiliza#onandLV/spacecraWrolloutpurgerequirements)

• VABplazormmodstomeetaccessrequirements• Padflamedeflectormods(basedonengineconfigura#on)•  Structuralreinforcementdrivenbytower,vehicle&MLbaseweight

• Pad,PadSlope,Crawler,Crawlerway,VAB,etc.•  Facili#es&GSEmustbebroughtintocompliancewithcurrentconstruc#onstandards&codes(VABlifesafety&firesuppression)

• GHErecoverysystemmayberequired(out‐years)


NASAWATCH.COM

HeavyLiNLaunchVehicle(HLLV)RecommendaQon

  IniQatea100tclassShuple‐derivedmoderateHLLV•  AccommodatesdifficultNEOcrewedmissionswithlessrisk

•  DefersUpperstagetoBlockIIandevolveUSfromCPS

•  U#lizesexperiencedworkforce•  Hardwarehasdemonstratedreliabilityandperformance

•  Morepayloadcapabilityfortheinvestment

  FurtherLaunchVehicletradesshouldbecompletedbyHLPTTeamatMSFC

  PerformatradeofthefeasibilityofCryogenicPropulsionStage(CPS)evoluQontoUpperStage(HEFTPhaseII)•  Evolu#onoftheCPSfromthecurrentAresIUpperStagedesignisfeasibletoevolvetoan

earthdeparturestage(EDS)withmodestCFMrequirements•  CPSdesigncouldbuildonexis#ngelementsofAresIUSforearlydemonstra#on

•  ExtensibilityforlongerloiterrequiredforCPSisfeasible


NASAWATCH.COM


CrewedSpacecraN‐RevisedApproach

SteeringCouncil

September2,2010

NASAWATCH.COM

  Issue•  HEFTassessmentsiden#fiedafunc#onal

requirementforacrewedexplora#onspacecraW

•  DevelopinganOrion‐derivedexplora#onvehicle-  Providesaclearexplora#onspacecraWfocus-  LeveragesCxPinvestment,maintaining

Agencymomentum,andpreservesprimecontractorrela#onship

-  CanyieldanISSERVviaBlockdevelopment

•  NodedicatedISSERVinanyexplora#onDRMs-  ERVdevelopmentisasub‐op#mumdetour

inthepathtoanexplora#onspacecraW

-  ERVdevelopmentreducesavailablebudgetforkeysystemsandtechdevelopmentbymorethan$2.0B

  Riskifunresolved•  PursuinganISSERVdivertsnearterm

resourcesthatcouldbebereralignedwithadvancinghuman(beyondLEO)explora#on

  RecommendaQon•  SwitchFocustodevelopanOrion‐derived

exploraQonspacecraNusingablockapproach-  DonotdevelopadedicatedISSERV

•  DevelopmentPath-  Orion‐deriveddirectreturnvehicleandin‐

housedevelopedexploraQoncraN-  ManagetheOrion‐derivedexplora#on

spacecraWtofittheavailablebudgetusingrigorousdesign‐to‐costtargets

-  Implementleanin‐housedevelopmentoftheMMSEV

•  Alterna#veDevelopmentPath-  Orionblock2vehicle-  withairlockandrobo#celements


CrewedSpacecraN/ERV–As presented July 13th


CrewTransferVehicleFuncQonalityConsideraQons

AscentAborts

CrewSupportDuraQon

ExtendedQuiescentPeriod

Entry,Descent&Landing

PropulsionSystemReqs.

ConQngencyAbortSupport

  HybridizedDRM‐4uQlizeseitheranAscent/Entry(CTV‐AE)orEntryonly(CTV‐E)

NASAWATCH.COM

  TherearenaturalcapabilitybreakpointsthatsuggestseveralCTVopQons•  FutureassessmenttorefinetheseisrequiredtofullydefinedCTVfunc#onality

  CTV‐E:minimalEOM(only)funcQon•  Doesnotprovidesupportfor(on‐orbit)con#ngencyabortfunc#ons

  CTV‐AE:providesascent/entry •  MustincludetheAscentAbort(LAS)capability/func#onality

•  ProvidesCM/SMcrewedsupport(LEOtoHEO/DSVsepthruEDL/Cont.AbortReqs.)

  CTV‐E*:entry+(onorbit)conQngencyabortfuncQons•  CTV‐E*isareduc#onofsystemcapabilityfromCTV‐AE

-  EliminatestheAscentAbort(LAS)capability/func#onality•  MaintainSMfunc#onalitytocovercrewedsupport&con#ngencyabortrequirements

CrewTransferVehicle(CTV)FuncQonalityOpQons


NASAWATCH.COM

CrewTransferVehicle(CTV)OpQons–CapabiliQes


CTVConfiguraQon CTV‐E CTV‐E* CTV‐A/E

CrewinCTVduringascent? No No Yes

AscentAbort(PadtoLEO) No No Yes

No.ofCrew‐DeliveryofCrewtoLEO/ReturnfrombeyondLEO 3‐4 3‐4 3‐4

Ascent/On‐orbitCrewSupport(hrs) 0/0 0/216 12+/216

CrewSupportForEDL&Recovery(hrs) 40 40 40

QuiescentTime(days) 400 400 400

AutomatedRendezvous&Docking–AR&D TBD TBD Yes

MainPropulsiondelta‐V(m/s) <200 1500+ 1500+

EntrySpeedforEntryDescent&Landing–EDL(km/s) <11.8 <11.8 <11.8

EDL&RecoverySystem(waterlanding) Yes Yes Yes

RCSControlforEDL Yes Yes Yes

ConQngency(InSpace)Abort No Yes Yes

NASAWATCH.COM

CrewTransferVehicle‐Entry(CTV‐E)FuncQonalityImplicaQons

 MinimumCTV‐EcapabilityimpliescertaincondiQons•  AllbeyondLEOmissionsrequireCTV‐E,MMSEV&CPS+Comm.Crewlaunch

•  LEOtoL1crewsupport(~4days)off‐loadedtotheMMSEV

•  Nostandalonein‐spacecon#ngencyabortsupport(insufficient crew support Eme)

-  Requirescombina#onwithMMSEVandCPS

  AddiQonalimplicaQons•  DoesnotsupportearlybeyondLEOmissionw/CTVonly(insufficient crew support Eme, insufficient Delta‐V)

•  PlacesCommercialCrewinCri#calPathforexplora#onmissions

•  CTV‐EisnotonpathtoprovideCommercialCrewalterna#ve


NASAWATCH.COM

CrewTransferVehicle(CTV)RecommendaQon

  OpenthetradeontheCTV‐EfuncQonalitydesignanddevelopmentapproach•  Op#mizetheCTV‐E*performanceandfunc#onalityalloca#onforDRM4

-  UnderstandCTVcapabili#esneededthroughopera#onalconceptanalysisincludingcon#ngencies

-  In‐depthtradesmustbeperformedbeforeCTVcapabili#esareestablished

–  Preliminarycapabilityassessmentisapproximately“Orion(Lunar)–LAS”

  Therefore,considertheCTV‐E*approachasanupdatedpointofdeparture•  Strengthenstheon‐orbitcon#ngencyabortrequirementssupport

•  PreservesanAgencyop#onforCommercialCrewAlterna#ve

•  Wouldyield“early”beyondLEOflightcapabilitywhencombinedw/HLV&CPS

  HEFTfollowonacQvitytoestablishbestacquisiQon/developmentapproach•  Stretcheddevelopmentcycles(consistentw/HEFTmanifest)resultsinsub‐op#malCTVcostes#mates–furtherexacerbatedwhencombinedwithexis#ngcontract

•  HEFTPhase2mustaddresstheprac#calprogramma#caspectsforCTV‐E*development


NASAWATCH.COM


CostStudyHistoryExecuQveSummary

SteeringCouncil

September2,2010

NASAWATCH.COM

IntroducQon

  Created16scenariosbasedonDRMteamproducts  FormedcatalogofcapabiliQes  EsQmatedcostsforeachcapability

•  Usedanalogiesandmodelsforcosts•  IdenQfiedtechnologydevelopmentsrequired•  Usedsystemandtechnologyexperts•  UsedesQmatesfromLaunchServicesProgram(LSP)forcommerciallaunches•  Performedin‐familycheckofsimilarhistoricalcapabiliQes

  Developedscheduleswithcostphasing  ProvideddatatoManifestteamtocreatemissions  Developedsandcharts  SupportedmulQplecostreviews

•  TwowithHEFTRedteam•  Independentcostconsultant•  SSPandCxPprogramsandprojects

  IteratedviablescenariostofitpotenQalbudgetbogey  DeterminedthatStrategy3,DRM2hadmostpotenQaltofitwithinthe

budget


NASAWATCH.COM

BudgetBogeyforHEFTAnalysis(June23,2010)

  BasedonFY11President’sBudget,assumeOMBbudgetescalaQonbeyondFY15

  StartwithSOMD+ESMD+SpaceTechnology

  ItemsremovedtoarriveatavailableforHEFT

•  Constella#onCloseout,por#onofSpaceFlightSupport,ISS,Shurle,SpaceTechnology

  ResultsinAvailableBudgetforHEFT


NASAWATCH.COM

DRM2B


SandchartHistory

NASAWATCH.COM

  “Original”BudgetBogeyforHEFT

  Proposedadjustments:  UsingexisQngcontracts,$1.8BforCxPcloseoutwasaddedbackintobudgetbogey

  AssumedPrap&WhitneyJ2‐Xis$100KinFY11  BoeingUpperStageclose‐outcostswereincludedinFY10ProgramTerminaQonLiability

(PTL)  StrandedHumanSpaceFlightcostsremovedinFY11  SoyuzorcommercialcrewridescostsremovedbetweenFY2016‐FY2020  CostremovedforaddiQonalshupleflightinJune2011

  “Revised”BudgetBogeyforHEFT

RevisedHEFTBudgetBogeyLine(August15)

OriginalBudgetBogey

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$2,782 $4,497 $5,177 $5,431 $5,526 $5,660 $5,801 $5,943 $6,085 $6,229


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

ConQnueContracts

$1,800 $600 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

HSF ($400) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

ServicestoISS

$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 ($799) ($800) ($800) ($800) ($800)

SSPthru6/11

($520)

RevisedBudgetBogey

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$3,662 $5,097 $5,177 $5,431 $5,526 $4,860 $5,001 $5,143 $5,285 $5,428

NASAWATCH.COM


DRM4CostSummary

SteeringCouncil

September2,2010



CampaignProfile


2011

2020

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2021

2030

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

CTV

TestFlight


toE‐ML1HLLV

MMSEV

SEP

CPS

DSH


InflatableDemo

Flagship

FullScaleDeployment

TestFlight


Payloads


HEO E‐ML1 E‐ML1

NEO

Entry

HEO(NoCrew)

9 10

2031


30kWeFlagship


RoboQcPrecursor

RoboQcPrecursor

NEOMissionConOps



IntegratedCostEsQmates

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

$inM

illions

Years

ProgramIntegra#onRobo#csPrecursorCTVCPSMMSEVDSHSEPCommercialCrewDevelopmentCommercialHLLVMissionOpera#onsGroundOpera#onsandInfrastructureDevelopment



2011‐2018CostEsQmates

•  RoboQcPrecursorin2018

•  SEP30kWetestflightin2017•  CPSFlagshipin2017•  LaunchHLLV100tTestFlight•  CommercialCrewDevelopmentComplete

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018ProgramInteg $135 $250 $357 $376 $368 $373 $364 $368RoboQcsPre $0 $0 $0 $88 $115 $236 $364 $375CTV‐EPrime $922 $949 $1,395 $1,774 $1,926 $1,760 $1,397 $802CPS $0 $86 $233 $347 $507 $594 $419 $432MMSEV $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 $17 $211 $583DSH $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $16 $121SEP $0 $0 $0 $56 $115 $177 $161 $342CCDEV $307 $1,265 $1,302 $1,005 $574 $0 $0 $0Commercial $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $607 $703HLLV $913 $1,980 $2,780 $2,550 $2,136 $2,202 $2,507 $2,350MO $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $9 $33 $34GO&Infrastr $390 $999 $1,203 $1,110 $992 $906 $652 $702Total $2,667 $5,529 $7,269 $7,306 $6,735 $6,275 $6,732 $6,813Delta $995 $(432) $(2,092) $(1,874) $(1,209) $(1,414) $(1,731) $(1,670)




•  CTV‐EflighttesttoISSwithlaunchonHLLVandwithCrewlaunchingonCommercialCrewin2019

•  RoboQcPrecursor2in2021•  SEPFull‐scaleDevelopmentTestin2022onEELV•  FirsttestflightofCTV‐EandCPSinHEOin2022•  InflatableHabLEOdemoflightin2024onEELV•  CTV‐E,CPS,andMMSEVHEOflightwithcrewlaunchingoncommercialcrewin2024

•  SEPL‐1flightin2026

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026ProgramInteg $407 $465 $517 $523 $531 $496 $485 $523RoboQcsPre $257 $132 $136 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0CTV‐EPrime $256 $263 $542 $279 $287 $295 $304 $312CPS $472 $473 $267 $84 $87 $89 $92 $94MMSEV $796 $933 $1,008 $1,000 $557 $297 $153 $157DSH $301 $449 $540 $526 $1,038 $1,127 $1,292 $1,215SEP $976 $1,340 $1,663 $1,815 $1,819 $1,026 $458 $616CCDEV $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0Commercial $0 $0 $340 $350 $451 $0 $382 $490HLLV $2,413 $2,527 $2,595 $2,677 $2,575 $2,724 $2,916 $3,109MO $35 $83 $146 $289 $317 $293 $185 $223GO&Infrastr $658 $656 $674 $694 $715 $734 $756 $779Total $6,570 $7,321 $8,429 $8,237 $8,376 $7,082 $7,023 $7,518Delta $(1,285) $(1,893) $(2,057) $(1,720) $(1,713) $(272) $(65) $(411)




•  L‐1MissionofCTV‐E,CPS,MMSEVwithCrewlaunchingonCommercialCrewin2027

•  FirstcrewedmissiontoaNEOin2031•  SequenceofthreeheavylaunchesstarQngin2029thatposiQonallthehardwareandcrewinHEO

2027 2028 2029 2030 2031ProgramInteg $532 $567 $549 $510 $491RoboQcsPre $0 $0 $0 $0 $0CTV‐EPrime $320 $329 $338 $347 $356CPS $97 $99 $102 $105 $107MMSEV $81 $83 $85 $174 $179DSH $1,189 $901 $656 $217 $29SEP $633 $1,300 $1,335 $685 $358CCDEV $0 $0 $0 $0 $0Commercial $0 $0 $0 $0 $560HLLV $3,079 $3,054 $2,940 $2,947 $2,947MO $298 $322 $191 $349 $358GO&Infrastr $802 $826 $851 $851 $851Total $7,031 $7,482 $7,046 $6,186 $6,237Delta $227 $(72) $519 $1,538 $1,649

NASAWATCH.COM


PhaseISummary&Conclusions

SteeringCouncil

September2,2010

NASAWATCH.COM

  Inordertocloseonaffordabilityandshortenthedevelopmentcycle,NASAmustchangeitstradiQonalapproachtohumanspacesystemsacquisiQonanddevelopment

  DevelopmentPath•  Balancelargetradi#onalcontrac#ngprac#ceswith

fixedpriceorcostchallengescoupledwithin‐housedevelopment


•  Leveragecivilservantworkforcetodoleadingedgedevelopmentwork

  AlternaQveDevelopmentApproaches•  Takeadvantageofexis#ngresourcestoini#atethe

developmentandhelpreduceupfrontcosts-  LaunchVehicleCoreStage-  Mul#‐MissionSpaceExplora#onVehicle

-  SolarElectricPropulsionFreighter

-  CryoPropulsionStage/UpperStage

-  DeepSpaceHabitat

  LaunchVehicle•  Ini#atedevelopmentofaevolvablemoderateSSP‐

derivedin‐lineHLV100tclassinFY2011

  CrewedSpacecraN•  DevelopanOrion‐deriveddirectreturnvehicleand

in‐housedevelopedMul#‐MissionSpaceExplora#onVehicle

•  DonotdevelopadedicatedISSERV•  FurthertradeCTVfunc#onalityandHLLVcrewra#ng

againstCommercialCrewu#liza#onforexplora#on

  Groundopsprocessingandlaunchinfrastructure•  Ini#ategroundopssystemdevelopmentconsistent

withspacecraWandlaunchvehicledevelopment

  TechnologyDevelopment•  Focustechnologydevelopmentonnearterm

explora#ongoals(NEOby2025)•  ReviseinvestmentsinFTD,XPRM,HLPT,ETDD,and

HRPandotherstoalignwiththeadvancedsystemscapabili#esiden#fiedintheframework



Phase1RecommendaQons

NASAWATCH.COM

DRM/Architecture–KeyObservaQons/RecommendaQons

  ObservaQons•  BalancedHLLV/Commerciallaunchers–Reasonablebalanceofcommercialand

governmentlaunchesachievablethroughrobo#cprecursors,flagshipsandfull‐scaledemos

•  ImpactsofmoderateHLLVcapacity–100tclasslauncherallowssinglelaunchofsystemsneededforcrewedflighttoHEO,reduceslaunchesneededforNEOby~50%

•  Impactsofsolarelectricpropulsion–SEParchitecturereducesbyhalfthemasstoLEOanddecreasessensi#vitytomassgrowthby~60%

•  QualitaQveassessmentofSEP–offersuniquemissionflexibility,reduc#oninriskandextensibilitytomoreambi#ousexplora#onmissions

  TopPrioriQesLookingForward•  Performfunc#onalitytradesamongstarchitectureelements,par#cularlyCTV/MMSEV/Hab

•  UnderstandCTVfunc#onalityandrela#onshiptoCommercialCrewthroughopera#onalconceptanalysisincludingcon#ngencies

•  Tradereusabilityofkeytransporta#on/habita#onelements

•  Performcampaignanalysis–othermissionsofinterestandhowwellDRMelementsandtechnologiesplay(e.g.,CPSevolu#ontoHLLVupperstage,orviceversa)

•  Performboroms‐upelementdesign,layoutandpackagingforSEP,MMSEVandHabincludingradia#onprotec#onstrategies


NASAWATCH.COM

  ObservaQons•  HumanmissionstoNEOsrequireafocusedtechnologyinvestmentporzolio

•  Asdefini#onofthemissionprofilematuresandourunderstandingofthedeepspaceenvironmentimproves,addi#onaltechnologyneedsmaybeiden#fied

•  Therearetechnologiesneededforotherdes#na#onsNOTneededforahumanNEOmission–i.e.,technologygaps

•  GaptechnologiesthatrepresentuniqueNASAneedswillrequiretheagencytosustainkeycorecompetenciesforfuturemissions

  RecommendaQons•  FocustechnologydevelopmenttowardaNEOdes#na#on

•  ReviseinvestmentsinFTD,XPRM,HLPT,ETDD,andHRPandotherstoalignwiththeadvancedsystemscapabili#esiden#fiedintheframework


Technology‐KeyObservaQons/RecommendaQons


NASAWATCH.COM

LaunchVehicle,SpacecraN,andGroundOperaQons‐RecommendaQons

  SpacecraN•  DevelopanOrion‐deriveddirectreturnvehicleandin‐housedevelopedMul#‐Mission

SpaceExplora#onVehicle•  ConsidertheCTV‐E*approachasanupdatedpointofdeparture•  Con#nuethetradeontheCTVfunc#onalitydesignanddevelopmentapproach

•  FurthertradeCTVfunc#onalityandHLLVcrewra#ngagainstCommercialCrewu#liza#onforexplora#on

  LaunchVehicle•  Ini#atedevelopmentofa100tclassShurle‐derivedmoderateHLLV

•  PerformatradeofthefeasibilityofCryogenicPropulsionStage(CPS)evolu#ontoUpperStage

•  AnyfurtherLaunchVehicletradesshouldbecompletedbytheimplemen#ngprogramorganiza#on

  GroundOperaQons•  Ini#ategroundopssystemdevelopmentconsistentwithspacecraWandlaunchvehicle

development•  Ini#atetradesassociatewithmajorinfrastructurecostdrivers


NASAWATCH.COM

SignificantIntegratedTradeRemaining

  HowdoesUSGascentcapabilityviaCTVandHLVcomparetoCommerciallyprovidedascentcapabilityforexploraQon•  SeveralKeyFactorsneedtobeevaluated

-  Performance,opera#onalcomplexity,affordability,schedule,stakeholdervalues,poli#callandscape,Agencyriskposture,HSFcapabili#es,etc.

  RecommendSteeringCouncilprovidearelaQveweighQngoftherelevantFOMs•  HEFT2candevelopthedecisionpackageforSteeringCouncil/Agencyreview


  USGHumanRatedAscentCapability•  SinglelaunchdecreasesLOM•  SinglelaunchtoHEOmi#gatesonorbitloiter

andboil‐offrequirement•  Missioncomplexityreducedwithno

rendezvousanddockinLEO

•  SinglelaunchreducesGOlaunchinfrastructuretoasinglelaunchcapability

•  SingleLaunchtoHEOmi#gateslaunchwindowconstraints

MMSEV

CTV

CPS #2

HLLV ‐ 10

0t

MMSEV

CTV w/Crew

CPS #2

HLLV ‐ 10

0t

OR Commercial

Crew

NASAWATCH.COM

Affordability‐themostsignificantchallengemovingforward

  TradiQonalDevelopment•  Balancelargetradi#onalcontrac#ngprac#ceswithfixedpriceorcostchallengescoupledwithin‐house

development


  AdoptAlternaQveDevelopmentApproaches•  Leveragecivilservantworkforcetodoleadingedgedevelopmentwork

•  Specifically,takeadvantageofexis#ngresourcestoini#atethedevelopmentandhelpreduceupfrontcostsonthefollowingelement:-  LaunchVehicleCoreStage-  Mul#‐MissionSpaceExplora#onVehicle-  SolarElectricPropulsionFreighter-  CryoPropulsionStage/UpperStage

-  DeepSpaceHabitat

  ThereareopportuniQestoaddressaffordabilityinprogram/projectformulaQonandplanning•  Levyleandevelopmentapproachesand“design‐to‐cost”targetsonimplemen#ngPrograms•  Iden#fyandnego#ateinterna#onalpartnercontribu#ons•  Iden#fyandpursuedomes#cpartnerships


Inordertocloseonaffordabilityandshortenthedevelopmentcycle,NASAmustchangeitstradiQonalapproachtohumanspacesystems

acquisiQonanddevelopment

NASAWATCH.COM


HEFTTransiQontoPhaseII

SteeringCouncil

September2,2010

NASAWATCH.COM

Inputs:

From Steering Comm: High‐level “Why?” + Key PrioriNes & AssumpNons

HEFT Phase I Results

1.  RefineFOMsandestablishArchitectureLevel0Requirements

2.  PerformArchitectureandDRMperformancerefinementacrossallelements

3.  Establishtop‐levelfuncQonalityacrossarchitecturalelements,opQmizinginterfaces,interoperability,andcommonalitywherepossible

4.  SetTechnology/CapabilityprioriQes,phasing&neededperformance

5.  DeveloparchitectureelementLevel1requirements6.  Createahigh‐levelmulQ‐desQnaQonCONOPSforthearchitecture/systems

7.  AddresspartnershipopportuniQesandconsideraQons

Outputs: DraO Architecture Baseline and CONOPS

including cost, schedule and performance


HEFTPhaseII:DrivenbyAgencyNeedsandPhaseIResults

NASAWATCH.COM

HEFTPhaseIIKeyTasks

  SupportprogramimplementaQon,budget,andalternaQve/skunkworksacquisiQon&devplanningefforts

  HonestrategicdecisionQmelines,provideQmely/acQonablerecommendaQons,andtrackdecisions

  PervasiveandTimely2‐wayCommunicaQon:•  BriefHEFTPhaseIresults&collectfeedback

•  Providefrequent,#mely,anddirectcommunica#onwithHEFToversightelements,internalstakeholders,andbroadcommunity(externalstakeholders);Useallmediums

•  Shareprogressandopportuni#eswithNASA’sexternalstakeholders,includingcommercial,interna#onalandacademicpartnerstofosteradvocacy,coopera#on,andcollabora#on;

•  VigorouslypursueinternalandexternalinputPar#cipatoryExplora#onEngagementandRefinement(PEER)


NASAWATCH.COM

HEFTPhaseIIImplementaQonPlans

  MaintainsthegeneralelementsandstructureofHEFT•  Cross‐agencydirectpar#cipa#on(MDs,HQelements,Centers,Programs)

•  LeveragesEngineeringStructureandExper#se•  ESMD(andSOMD)providesregularoversightanddirec#on:Allfinaldecisionsand

documenta#onapprovedatAdministratorlevelwithregularrepor#ngtotheSMC•  SteeringCommireeincludesCurrentmakeup+4OpsCtrDirs,Providesregularreview

•  Integra#onTeam:Eachmemberleadsasub‐team,regularbriefings

•  Sub‐teams:IntegratedSystemAnalysis/DRM,Ops/Infrastructure,Partnerships,Communica#ons,CrewVehicle(CV),LaunchVehicle(LV),In‐space(IS),TechDev(TD)andCost

•  Red/IndependentReviewTeam&ConsultantsTeam

•  Locatedin,andfundedbyESMD,butAgencyfunc#onforHSFExplora#on

  NearTermForwardSchedule•  HEFTPhase1FinalSummaryoutbriefsfollowingSteeringCommireeMee#ngon9/02/10

-  StrategicContextandTopOutcomesfromHEFTPhaseI(KeyDecisions,Trades,Results)-  SMC/WH/CongressbriefingssoonestforconcurrencewithPhaseIresults/PhaseIIplans

•  Ini#al3monthperiodoffocusedsurgeeffort,thensmaller,sustainedlong‐termrefinementwork

  NoQonalPhase2Schedule:Mon,13Sep2010–Wed,8Dec2010


NASAWATCH.COM

RelaQonshipDiagram

67

Steering Committee

HEFT Integration

Team

ESMD

Formulation/Study/ Program Teams

Why? Where? What? When? How?

HEFT Architecture

Process

Program Requirements, Functionality, Phasing, Priorities

Implementation Plans, Including Brokes/Issues

Budget, Other Constraints, Oversight

ESMD Programs Formulation and Implementation

NGOs, Cost, Schedule,

Constraints, Other priorities

Architecture: Implementation Plans, Program

Execution

Architecture: Destinations,

DRMs, Priorities,

Roadmaps


NASAWATCH.COM


Backup


ConstantFY10Dollars

DRM2BCostSummary

CapabilityIOCcosts UnitCost %Appliedfor$inMillion $inMillion Uncertainty

CommercialCrewDevelopment $4,100 N/A N/ACommercialCrewLaunchVehicle N/A $313 25%CommercialCargoLaunchVehicleAtlasAV501Moderate N/A $200 25%CommercialCargoLaunchVehicleDeltaIV N/A $424 25%100mtHLLV27.5'SSPDerivedInlinew/outUpperStagewith5SSME $17,400 $1,860 25%GroundInfrastructure $7,000 $500 25%70mtHLLV27.5'SSPDerivedInlinew/outUpperStagewith3SSME $14,300 $1,600 25%HLLV33'RPCore* $17,700 $1,600 25%CryoPropulsionStage(CPS)Medium $3,200 $175 35%CPSHeavy(ifbuiltinparallelwithCPSMedium) $2,500 $316 35%LEOTug* $1,800 $450 35%PropellantResupplyModule(PRM) $191 $191 35%SolarElectricPropulsion(SEP) $7,000 $1,500 25%NuclearElectricPropulsion(NEP)* $11,100 N/A N/ANuclearThermalPropulsion(NTP)* $19,000 N/A 35%MMSEVInHouse $3,800 $210 50%CrewTransferVehicle(CTV)‐Entry $6,200 $400 25%CTV‐EntryPrime $7,900 $597 25%CTV‐Ascent/Entry $10,200 $840 25%DeepSpaceHabitat(DSH) $6,400 N/A 25%LogisQcsModule $525 $90 25%MarsSurfaceSystems $11,300 N/A 35%MarsAscentStage(MAS) $5,200 N/A 35%MarsEDL $11,100 N/A 35%

*lowerfidelityes#matesBACK

NASAWATCH.COM

BACK

DRM2B


NASAWATCH.COM

DRM2B


BACK

NASAWATCH.COM

SSCDiscriminatorsfor70and100tvehicles

  NoissuesforenginetesQng  StagetesQng:relaQveto70tHLV,the100tHLVrequiresmoreextensive

modstoSSCB‐2•  stagemoun#ng

•  flamedeflectorrobustness

•  propellantfeedlinesandvalves,-  perApril2010assessmentfor5‐engineMPTAtypehozireseries

•  CurrentROMof$60M


No discriminators between vehicles – minor cost impact for B‐2 modificaNons (may be necessary in long term)

NASAWATCH.COM

HEFTPhaseIIOverview

  HEFTGoal:Createanevolvable and flexible architecture forourHumanSpaceExplora#onEnterprisethatdefinesthestrategy, capabiliNes, and technical plan NASAneedstosendpeopletoexplore mulNple desNnaNonsintheSolarSysteminaninspiring,safe,efficient,affordable,andsustainableway.

  HEFTApproach:ConNnue the HEFT process,evolvingintoalongterm,permanentNASAac#vitytosupporthumanspaceflightstrategicarchitectureandsupportplanning•  Forthenext3monthsinHEFTPhaseII,teamwillleveragetheoutputofthefirstitera#on

oftheHEFTprocessanddefine/refinetheHSFExplora#onArchitecture•  OutcomeoftheprocesswillbeanarchitecturethatincludesrecommendaNons for Human

Spaceflight elements, capabiliNes and mulN‐desNnaNon missionsfor5,10,15,and20yearhorizons,withasteady cadence of bold firsts and Mars as the ulNmate desNnaNon

  HEFTImpact:InfluencetheFY11/12andFY2013+budgetnego#a#onandalloca#onprocess•  ProvideanexecutableandcrediblestrategicHSFarchitecture•  Communicateastrategythat

-  Integratesallthemovingpartsandanswerstheques#ons:“Why?”, “What?”, “Where?” and “When?”

-  Meetsdiversestakeholderneeds-  Clarifiesviableop#ons,implica#ons,andinter‐rela#onships


NASAWATCH.COM

DetailedHEFTDeliverables(PhaseII)

  RefinedFOMS&AgencyLevel0requirements

  Keyfollow‐ontradestudiesandrequiredforwardworkfromHEFTPhaseI

  RefineddesQnaQonsandcompellingraQonale(whereandwhy):•  AssessFlexibility:Vehicle/payloadcapabili#es,des#na#onopportuni#es,missionadjustments

•  AssessExtensibility:Earlymissions;Marsorbit,Marssurface,otherbeyondNEOcapabili#es

  RefinedDRMsaspartofamulQ‐desQnaQonArchitecture:•  Breakdownofflightelementsandtop‐levelfunc#onality

•  Op#mizedinterfaces,interfacecontrols,commonality,andinteroperability

•  Refinedmissionscenarioandopera#onsdefini#ons:launches,departurestaging,in‐spaceintegra#on,ac#vi#es/events,transits/dura#ons,des#na#onopera#onplans,andcon#ngencies/robustness

•  Refinedelementdefini#ons:systems,mass,power,performance,technologies

•  Refinedsystems,elementsandtechnologiesrequirements;Phasing,TRL/IRLmatura#on

  Level1architectureNGOsandrequirements

  Refinedtechnologyandsystemsdevelopmentplans: •  Refinetheneededtechnologydevelopmentpaths:techdev,tes#ng,anddemos

•  Technologyandvehicle/elementperformance/demonstra#ontargets&milestones

•  Phasedtechnology,vehicleandelementdevplansbalancingaffordability,efficiency&schedule


NASAWATCH.COM

DetailedHEFTDeliverables(PhaseII)‐conQnued

  Developclearmeasurablestrategies&approachesforalternaQvelean/skunkworksacquisiQonanddevelopment•  Providespecificcost,schedule,andperformance‐basedneeds

  Refinedintegratedmissiondesignandplanning(CONOPS):•  Manifes#ng/sequencingof:missions,launches,vehicles,elementsandblockdevelopments

•  Groundandin‐spaceopera#onsinfrastructureandsupportrequirementsandassets

•  Missionopera#ons,communica#ons,naviga#onandITrequirementsandassets

•  Manufacturing,supplychain,resourcesrequirements,assetsandavailability

  AssessmentofpartnershipopportuniQesandconsideraQons:•  Technologies,vehiclesand/orelements

•  Interna#onals,OtherGovernmentAgencies,industry/commercial,academia

  Refinedcostassessments•  RefinedDDT&E,FirstUnitandProduc#onfor:systems,elements,vehicles&technologies

•  Costmargins,uncertaintyassessmentandvalida#onassessment;Costphasingandsandcharts

  RecommendaQons•  Updatedlaunchvehicle,crewvehicleandin‐spaceelementsrecommenda#ons

•  Updatedcommerciallaunch(crew,cargo,HEXelementandpropellant)strategies

•  Updatedtechnologydevelopmentplans


NASAWATCH.COM

HEFTPhaseIIAcQviQes(LongerTerm)

  SupporttransiQonfromapprovedHEFTresultstoprogrammaQcimplementaQon•  Synergyandinterac#onwithProgram(s)implementa#onstrategy

  ConQnueiteraQverefinementofoverallhumanexploraQonstrategy

  Periodicassessmentofprogramstatusagainststrategy–supportPPBEprocess  Periodicassessmentoftechnologyprogressagainststrategy,includingimpactsto

strategyfrom“game‐changing”technologiesandrelevanton‐ramps/off‐ramps

  SupportReportsRequiredbyLaw–tobesupported,orledasappropriate  PrepareresponsestoCongressionaldirecQonasneeded  Support,refineandparQcipateinleandevelopmentconceptdevelopment/applicaQon

  IdenQfyinternalAgencyandexternalinterfaces  Developlong‐termstaffingandorganizaQonalapproach:

•  CentralizedCommand/Leadership,Reach‐backtoCenters/Contractorsfordetailedexecu#on

•  Relyonexis#ngAgencyorganiza#onsandstructure;Examples–OCE/OSMATechnicalSteeringCommireesfortechnicalanalyses,ESMDDIO,OCTTechplanning;LeveragecurrentHEFTpeople

•  DetaileesfromCenters,engageyoungeremployeesacrossalldisciplinesasmuchaspossiblesincetheyul#matelyhaveto“own”theresults


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