hedging using futures contracts finance (derivative securities) 312 tuesday, 22 august 2006...
TRANSCRIPT
Hedging Using Hedging Using Futures ContractsFutures Contracts
Finance (Derivative Securities) 312
Tuesday, 22 August 2006
Readings: Chapters 3 & 6
Long v ShortLong v Short
Long futures hedge is appropriate when you know you will purchase an asset in the future and want to lock in the price
Short futures hedge is appropriate when you know you will sell an asset in the future & want to lock in the price
Arguments For HedgingArguments For Hedging
Companies should focus on the main business they are in and take steps to minimise risks arising from interest rates, exchange rates, and other market variables
Arguments Against Arguments Against HedgingHedging
Shareholders are usually well diversified and can make their own hedging decisions
It may increase risk to hedge when competitors do not
Explaining a situation where there is a loss on the hedge and a gain on the underlying can be difficult
ConvergenceConvergence
Time
Spot Price
FuturesPrice
t1 t2
Basis RiskBasis Risk
Basis is the difference between spot & futures
Basis risk arises because of uncertainty about the basis when the hedge is closed out
Long HedgeLong Hedge
Suppose that
F1 : Initial Futures Price
F2 : Final Futures Price
S2 : Final Asset Price
Hedge future purchase of an asset by entering into a long futures contract
Cost of Asset = S2 – (F2 – F1) = F1 + Basis
Short HedgeShort Hedge
Suppose that
F1 : Initial Futures Price
F2 : Final Futures Price
S2 : Final Asset Price
Hedge future sale of an asset by entering into a short futures contract
Price Realised = S2 + (F1 – F2) = F1 + Basis
Choice of ContractChoice of Contract
Choose delivery month as close as possible to, but later than, the end of the life of the hedge
When no futures contract available on asset being hedged, choose contract whose futures price is most highly correlated with the asset price• Creates two components to basis
Optimal Hedge RatioOptimal Hedge Ratio Proportion of exposure that should optimally be
hedged is
where S is standard deviation of S, the change in the
spot price during the hedging period F is standard deviation of F, the change in the futures price during the hedging period is correlation coefficient between S and F
h S
F
Index FuturesIndex Futures
To hedge risk in a portfolio, the number of contracts that should be shorted is
where P is value of the portfolio, βis its beta, and A is value of the assets underlying one futures contract
P
A
P
A
Reasons for Hedging Equity Reasons for Hedging Equity PortfoliosPortfolios
Desire to be out of the market for a short period of time• Hedging may be cheaper than selling portfolio
and buying it back
Desire to hedge systematic risk• Appropriate when you feel that you have
picked stocks that will outperform the market
Hedging a PortfolioHedging a Portfolio
Suppose that:• Value of S&P 500 is 1,000• Value of Portfolio is $5 million• Beta of portfolio is 1.5• Risk-free rate is 4%, dividend yield is 1% p.a.
What position in 4-month futures contracts on the S&P 500 is necessary to hedge the portfolio?
N* = 1.5 x 5,000,000/250,000 = 30
Hedging a PortfolioHedging a Portfolio
Suppose index is 900 in three months’ time, futures price is 902• Futures gain is 30 x (1,010 – 902) x 250 =
$810,000• Index loss 10%, dividend 0.25% per 3
months, overall loss –9.75%
• E(RP) = Rf + β[E(RM) – Rf]
= 1 + 1.5(–9.75 – 1) = –15.25
Hedging a PortfolioHedging a Portfolio
Expected value of portfolio after 3 months• 5,000,000 x (1 – 0.15125) = $4,243,750
Hedger’s position• 4,243,750 + 810,000 = $5,053,750• Value has increased by the risk-free rate (1%)
Rolling Hedges ForwardRolling Hedges Forward
Can use a series of futures contracts to increase the life of a hedge
Each switch from one futures contract to another incurs an element of basis risk
Interest Rate FuturesInterest Rate Futures
Treasury Bonds: Actual/Actual (in period)
Corporate Bonds: 30/360
Money Market Instruments: Actual/360
PricingPricing
T-bond Cash price = Quoted price + Accrued Interest
T-bill Quoted price:
where Y is the cash price of a Treasury bill that has n days to maturity
360100
nY( )
T-bond FuturesT-bond Futures
Cash price received (short position) =
Quoted futures price × Conversion factor + Accrued interest
Conversion factor for a bond is approximately equal to the value of the bond on the assumption that the yield curve is flat at 6% with semi-annual compounding
T-bond FuturesT-bond Futures
Suppose that:• Cheapest-to-deliver bond is 12% bond with
conversion factor of 1.4000• Delivery in 270 days• Last coupon 60 days ago, next in 122 days,
then 305 days• Yield curve flat at 10%• Quoted price $120
What is the quoted futures price?
T-bond FuturesT-bond Futures
Cash price:• 120 + (6 x 60/[60 + 122]) = 121.978
PV of next coupon:• 6e-0.1(0.3342) = 5.803
Cash futures price:• (121.978 – 5.803)e0.1(0.7397) = 125.094
Quoted futures price:• 125.094 – 6 x (148/[148 + 35]) = 120.242• 120.242/1.4000 = 85.887
T-bond FuturesT-bond Futures
Factors that affect the futures price:
• Delivery can be made any time during the delivery month
• Any of a range of eligible bonds can be delivered
• The wild card play
Eurodollar FuturesEurodollar Futures If Q is the quoted price of a Eurodollar futures
contract, the value of one contract is 10,000[100-0.25(100-Q)]
A change of one basis point or 0.01 in a Eurodollar futures quote corresponds to a contract price change of $25
Settled in cash Expires on third Wednesday of the delivery
month and all contracts are closed out• Z is set equal to 100 minus the 90 day Eurodollar
interest rate (actual/360)
Eurodollar Forward Eurodollar Forward RatesRates
Eurodollar futures contracts last as long as 10 years
For Eurodollar futures lasting beyond two years we cannot assume that the forward rate equals the futures rate
Eurodollar Forward Eurodollar Forward RatesRates
A "convexity adjustment" often made is
Forward rate = Futures rate
where is the time to maturity of the
futures contract, is the maturity of
the rate underlying the futures contract
(90 days later than ) and is the
standard deviation of the short rate changes
per year (typically is about
1
2
0 012
21 2
1
2
1
t t
t
t
t
. )
DurationDuration
Duration of a bond that provides cash flow ci at time ti is:
where B is its price and y is its yield (continuously compounded)
tceBi
i
ni
yti
1
DurationDuration
This leads to:
When the yield y is expressed with compounding m timesper year
This expression is referred to as “modified duration”
yDB
B
my
yBDB
1
D
y m1
Duration MatchingDuration Matching
This involves hedging against interest rate risk by matching the durations of assets and liabilities
It provides protection against small parallel shifts in the zero curve
Duration HedgingDuration Hedging
Suppose that:• On 2 August, fund manager has $10m
invested in govt bonds• Hedges porftolio with December T-bond
futures, priced at 93.0625• Duration of portfolio in 3 months is 6.8• CTD bond is 20yr 12% bond, yield = 8.8%,
duration will be 9.2 at maturity of futures
Duration HedgingDuration Hedging
No. of contracts:• (10m x 6.8) / (93,062.50 x 9.20) = 79.42
If portfolio rises to 10.45m on 2 Nov, futures price = 98.50, loss on contracts:• 79 x (98,500 – 93,062.50) = $429,562.50
Net change in manager’s position:• $450,000 - $429,562.50 = $20,437.50
Duration-based Hedge Duration-based Hedge RatioRatio
FC = Contract price for Interest Rate Futures
DF = Duration of asset underlying futures at maturity
P = Value of portfolio being hedged
DF = Duration of portfolio at hedge maturity
FC
P
DF
PD