healthy beaches for people & fish sea level rise ...€¦ · seattle, wa . vancouver, bc . project...

Healthy Beaches for People & Fish Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools for San Juan County, WA

Tina Whitman & Andrea MacLennan December 10, 2015

Project Overview Tina Whitman, Friends of the San Juans

Sea Level Rise Assessment & Decision Tools Andrea MacLennan, Coastal Geologic Services

Community Engagement Tina Whitman, Friends of the San Juans

Presentation Outline


Tina Whitman and Andrea MacLennan

Partners: Friends of the San Juans

Coastal Geologic Services Salish Sea Biological Resource Media

Project Overview Funders: U.S. EPA

North Pacific LCC Sustainable Path Foundation Bullitt Foundation

Technical Team:

Washington Departments of Ecology, Natural Resources and Fish and Wildlife, The University of Washington, Tulalip Tribes, Samish Indian Nation, United States Geological Survey, Padilla Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve San Juan County Public Works, SJC Salmon Recovery, Puget Sound Partnership

> 400 Miles Marine Shoreline Diverse Shoreform Types High Ecosystem Services Non-urban Flood & Erosion Hazards Good place to develop & test sea level rise adaptation tools


Seattle, WA

Vancouver, BC

Project Overview

Project Overview


New Research SLR Vulnerability Model SLR Regulatory Review

Tidal Elevation of Surf Smelt Spawn

Manager Outreach Local and Regional Interviews,

Surveys, Focus Groups & Workshops Mgt. Recommendations

Community Engagement Decision Tools, King Tide Events,

Workshops & Surveys

Adaptation Projects Public Infrastructure/Habitat Relocation of Private Homes

Improved Policy

Sea Level Rise Decision Tools Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment of San Juan

County

December 10, 2015 By: Andrea MacLennan, MS

Coastal Geologic Services

[email protected] www.coastalgeo.com

Make Informed Decisions

How will my shoreline respond to sea level rise?

What are appropriate responses for my type of shoreline?

How vulnerable is my property?

Shoreform Response

San Juan County Vulnerability Assessment

Appropriate Adaptation Approaches


Different shoreforms will respond differently

What are long-term vs short term solutions? Costs?

What type of hazards? (erosion or floods? both?) When? 2050/2100?

Shoreform Response



Different shoreforms will respond differently Shoreform Response

Shoretype

Topography

Geology

Sediment supply

Littoral drift cells

No Appreciable Drift

Space to move landward

Septic ?

Shoreform Response

Increase in water levels, high tides

Increase bluff/bank erosion

Natural shorelines will move landward

More frequent high water events

storms and el ninos

Habitat loss via coastal squeeze

armored shores


Shoreform Response – Rocky Shores

Vertical shift upwards/landward shift in tidal elevation Similar shift in intertidal habitats

Shoreform Response - Bluffs

Landward shift of entire beach profile Bluff erosion enables local and down-drift beaches to adjust

Shoreform Response – Barrier Beaches

Crest of berm will build higher and shift landward via overwash Landward shift in habitats, dune grass, driftwood, intertidal spawners Habitat/beach loss can occur where landward constrains limits natural migration of beach features

Shoreform Response - Artificial

Static shoreline armor prevents landward migration of shoreline and habitats resulting in habitat and beach loss




What type of hazards? (erosion or floods?) When? 2050/2100?

Shoreform Response




Objectives

• Develop a GIS tool to visualize SLR implications that integrates bluff erosion and inundation

•Identify structures and roads vulnerable to erosion and inundation

• Identify priority areas and potential management strategies

San Juan County Vulnerability Assessment SLR

Projections

NRC SLR Projections (NAS 2012) 2050 (ft) 2100 (ft)

Moderate (IPCC A1B) Scenario 0.5 2

High (IPCC A1FI) Scenario 1.6 4.7

National Research Council 2012 Sea Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon and Washington: Past, Present, and Future. 2012. ISBN 978-10-309-25594-3

The project Technical Advisory Group recommended using 2 scenarios and 2 planning horizons

3.06-3.12

EMPLOYEE NAME:Andrea MacLennanPeriod: 3Month/Year:Mar-13

WedThursFriSatSunMonTue

PROJECT3/6/133/7/133/8/133/9/133/10/133/11/133/12/13

Mkt0.520.5

Office0.50.50.51.5

HOLIDAY

Mileage/Costs

WDFW-MSDG 11-044

Mileage/CostsNRC SLR Projections (NAS 2012)2050 (ft)2100 (ft)

WA DOE-FB Map 12-0160.5T-3.10.75T-3.10.5T-3.1Moderate (IPCC A1B) Scenario0.52

High (IPCC A1FI) Scenario 1.64.7

Mileage/Costs

Friends SLRCI 12-01975T3.37T3.34.5T3.32.5T3.36.5T3.38.5T3.3

Mileage/Costs

COB: WRIA 1 NAARP 11-037B

Mileage/Costs

Holiday

Mileage/Costs

Vacation

Mileage/Costs

Mileage

Total Hrs.8.008.007.504.502.508.759.5048.75

2.29-3.05

EMPLOYEE NAME:Andrea MacLennanPeriod: 3Month/Year:Mar-13


PROJECT2/27/132/28/133/1/133/2/133/3/133/4/133/5/13

Mkt0.5

Office0.25211.5

HOLIDAY

Mileage/Costs

WDFW-MSDG 11-044

Mileage/Costs

WA DOE-FB Map 12-0166.25T-3.12T-3.110.5T-3.1

Mileage/Costs

Friends SLRCI 12-0191.5T3.34T3.34T3.36.5T3.37T3.3

Mileage/Costs


Mileage/Costs

Holiday

Mileage/Costs

Vacation

Mileage/Costs

Mileage

Total Hrs.8.008.006.000.000.008.008.0038.00

2.20-2.28

EMPLOYEE NAME:Andrea MacLennanPeriod: 3Month/Year:Feb-13


PROJECT2/20/132/21/132/22/132/23/132/24/132/25/132/26/13

Mkt1

Office0.50.50.750.52

HOLIDAY

Mileage/Costs

WDFW-MSDG 11-044

Mileage/Costs

WA DOE-FB Map 12-0161T-3.13T-3.16.25T-3.16T-3.14T-3.1

Mileage/Costs

Friends SLRCI 12-0196T3.34T3.31T3.31.5T3.3

Mileage/Costs


Mileage/Costs

Holiday

Mileage/Costs

Vacation

Mileage/Costs

Mileage

Total Hrs.7.507.508.000.000.007.507.5038.00

2.13-2.19



PROJECT2/13/132/14/132/15/132/16/132/17/132/18/132/19/13

Mkt43

Office1.50.50.75

HOLIDAY8

Mileage/Costs

WDFW-MSDG 11-044

Mileage/Costs

WA DOE-FB Map 12-0160.51.5T-3.1

Mileage/Costs

Friends SLRCI 12-0191.5T3.34.5T3.30.75T3.35.5T3.3

Mileage/Costs


Mileage/Costs

Holiday

Mileage/Costs

Vacation

Mileage/Costs

Mileage

Total Hrs.7.508.000.750.000.008.007.7532.00

2.06-2.11



PROJECT2/6/132/7/132/8/132/9/132/10/132/11/132/12/13

Mkt10.750.750.25

Office0.50.751.250.5

Vacation 2012

Mileage/Costs

WDFW-MSDG 11-044

Mileage/Costs

WA DOE-FB Map 12-0163T-3.16.25T-3.1

Mileage/Costs

Friends SLRCI 12-0197T3.34.25T3.34T3.36.75T3.3

Mileage/Costs


Mileage/Costs

Holiday

Mileage/Costs

Vacation

Mileage/Costs

Mileage

Total Hrs.8.508.006.000.000.007.507.0037.00

1.30-2.06



PROJECT1/30/131/31/132/1/132/2/132/3/132/4/132/5/13

Mkt3.50.51.5

Office20.50.5

Vacation 2012

Mileage/Costs

WDFW-MSDG 11-044

Mileage/Costs

WA DOE-FB Map 12-0161T-3.11

Mileage/Costs

Friends SLRCI 12-0195T3.33T3.36.5T3.37T3.36T3.3

Mileage/Costs


Mileage/Costs

Holiday

Mileage/Costs

Vacation

Mileage/Costs

Mileage

Total Hrs.8.007.506.500.000.008.008.0038.00

1.23-1.29

EMPLOYEE NAME:Andrea MacLennanPeriod: 3Month/Year:Jan-13


PROJECT1/23/131/24/131/25/131/26/131/27/131/28/131/29/13

Mkt

Office21.51

Vacation 2012

Mileage/Costs

WDFW-MSDG 11-044

Mileage/Costs

WA DOE-FB Map 12-0165.5T-3.14.5T-3.13T-3.1

Mileage/Costs175 boat renta

Friends SLRCI 12-0192.5T3.35.5T3.36T3.3

Mileage/Costs


Mileage/Costs

Holiday

Mileage/Costs

Vacation

Mileage/Costs

Mileage

Total Hrs.7.506.002.500.000.008.507.0031.50

1.02-1.08



PROJECT1/2/131/3/131/4/131/5/131/6/131/7/131/8/13

Mkt

Office11

Sick time

Mileage/Costs

WDFW-MSDG 11-044

Mileage/Costs

WA DOE-FB Map 12-0161.5T-3.11T-3.1

Mileage/Costs

Friends SLRCI 12-019

Mileage/Costs

COB: WRIA 1 NAARP 11-037B6.5T-18T-16T-15T-16T-1

Mileage/Costs

Holiday

Mileage/Costs

Vacation

Mileage/Costs

Mileage

Total Hrs.7.508.006.000.000.007.507.0036.00

1.09-1.15



PROJECT1/9/131/10/131/11/131/12/131/13/131/14/131/15/13

Mkt0.5

Office0.50.50.50.5

Sick time

Mileage/Costs

WDFW-MSDG 11-044

Mileage/Costs

WA DOE-FB Map 12-0160.5T-3.17T-3.17T-3.14T-3.1

175boat rental175boat rental

Mileage/Costs

Friends SLRCI 12-0190.5T-3.34T-3.3

Mileage/Costs

COB: WRIA 1 NAARP 11-037B6.5T-1

Mileage/Costs

Holiday

Mileage/Costs

Vacation

Mileage/Costs

Mileage

Total Hrs.8.007.500.500.000.008.008.0032.00

1.16-1.22



PROJECT1/16/131/17/131/18/131/12/131/13/131/21/131/22/13

Mkt

Office0.50.5

Vacation 20128

Mileage/Costs

WDFW-MSDG 11-044

Mileage/Costs

WA DOE-FB Map 12-0168T-3.10.5T-3.15T-3.1

Mileage/Costs175 boat renta

Friends SLRCI 12-019

Mileage/Costs

COB: WRIA 1 NAARP 11-037B6.5T-13T -1

Mileage/Costs

Holiday

Mileage/Costs

Vacation

Mileage/Costs

Mileage

Total Hrs.8.507.500.000.000.008.008.0032.00


Create the Inundation (Bath Tub) Model Step 1. Created a countywide MHHW shoreline MHHW = Mean Higher-High Water

Step 2. Linked that with topography Step 3. Created contours for Highest Observed Water Level (HOWL) and each scenario and time horizons (2050 Mod, 2050 High, 2100 Mod, 2100 High)

Step 4. Create polygons from lines


Erosion Rates Background erosion rates from a stratified sample of shoretypes (1-2%). - Feeder bluffs, - Transport zones - Pocket Beaches - Accretion shoreforms

Exposure, Orientation DSAS, 1960s - 2009


Buffering Bluff Erosion

• Bluff crest was digitized from LIDAR slope data

• Estimated future erosion was buffered from bluff crest

• Shoreform (8.5-155 ft) • Scenario (Mod, High) • Planning horizon

(2050, 2100)

• Structures and roads were selected that intersect erosion and inundation

Profile view of future erosion estimates – NOT to SCALE


Uncertainty, Assumptions and Limitations • NOT a predictive tool, developed to enhance

understanding and facilitate planning

• Detailed error analysis in report • Error analysis included measures of cumulative error • Cumulative error was mapped as polygons to bracket

results

• Not all drivers of change accounted for in the model

• Uncertainty in rate of accelerated bluff retreat and sea level rise


Assess vulnerability to floods and erosion

SJC Vulnerability Assessment – Threatened Roads: Flood

Assess road access vulnerability to flooding

SJC Vulnerability Assessment – Threatened Roads: Eros

Assess road access vulnerability to erosion




What type of hazards? (erosion or floods? When? 2050/2100?

Shoreform Response



Appropriate Adaptation Approach

• Planning horizon

• Cost of infrastructure

• Maintenance

• Opportunities

•Habitat conservation / restoration

•Increased resilience


• Effective for managing erosion and inundation in the long-term

• Requires adequate upland area for relocation

• Often cheaper than engineered solutions

• Most effective for septic, outbuildings, and highly vulnerable primary structures

Appropriate Adaptation Approaches - Relocate

• Only effective for managing coastal flooding, not erosion

• Driftwood can damage pilings, elevated structures etc

Appropriate Adaptation Approaches - Elevate

Shore armor has limitations:

• Only effective for managing erosion, not flooding

• Will not curb all bluff erosion

• Will lead to beach habitat loss

Appropriate Adaptation Approaches - Fortify

•Nourish entire beach profile

• Build a storm berm, to absorb wave energy

• Compensate (short-term) for lost sediment supply or habitat loss

Appropriate Adaptation Approaches - Nourish


Bluffs Relocate structures

Nourish entire beach profile

Nourish storm berm

Nourish waterward of armor

Elevate

Fortify

Barrier beaches

Pocket beaches

The most appropriate approach depends on site-specific conditions

Want to learn more?

andrea@coastalgeo “DOT” com

mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools San Juan County, WA

Partners: FRIENDS of the San Juans Coastal Geologic Services Resource Media

Funders: U.S. EPA North Pacific LCC Sustainable Path Foundation FRIENDS Membership

Engaging Managers & Community Members

Tina Whitman, MS FRIENDS of the San Juans tina@sanjuans”dot”org

SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools

Multiple Scales of Sea Level Rise Outreach Efforts 1. Regional Managers

• Regulators, Managers, Scientists

2. County Managers • County Public Works and Planning Departments, Conservation Entities

3. Community • Focus Area Workshop and Survey of Residents and Property Owners

4. Lessons Learned and Next Steps



Manager Outreach Stakeholder Interviews

• 39 federal, state, tribal and county scientists, regulators, managers Focus Groups • 17 federal, county, state, tribal and ngo managers Surveys • 20 federal, state, county and city planners Technical Team

• County, state agency, federal, tribal scientists and managers County Workshops • Public Works, Planning, Conservation Groups


In the future, normal tides may look more like today’s extreme tides

2015 Low Tide 2012 King Tide Ginny Sherrow Photo


Local Outreach- vulnerable communities King Tide Events


Local Outreach- vulnerable communities Shaw Island Community Workshop • 39 residents • 2/3 shoreline property owners

Workshop Partners & Roles Regional SLR – WA Sea Grant Local shorelines 101- FSJ

SLR vulnerability assessment- CGS Local adaptation projects- FSJ Live-results, anonymous participant polling- WA Sea Grant



Local Outreach- vulnerable communities Shaw Island Community Survey Results


SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools



Example image testing- Shaw community event survey

SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools Local Outreach- vulnerable communities Shaw Island Community Survey Results


Example image testing- Shaw community event survey




Lessons Learned Management Structure • Improved or different frameworks are needed to support the implementation

of adaptation and multi-benefit projects;

Real Life Examples • Successful on-the-ground adaptation case studies from our region will be key;

Expanded Community Engagement • Public feedback to managers is essential.


Next Steps

• Additional community workshops and surveys.

• Cost/benefit analysis for adaptation case studies.

• Implement multi-benefit adaptation projects.

• Annual King Tides events with Conservation collaborators.

Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools San Juan County, WA

Project Reports at: www.sanjuans.org/NearshoreStudies.htm

tina@sanjuans”dot”org Andrea@coastalgeo”dot”com

http://www.sanjuans.org/NearshoreStudies.htmmailto:tina@sanjuans%E2%80%9Ddot%E2%80%9Dorgmailto:Andrea@coastalgeo%E2%80%9Ddot%E2%80%9Dcom

Healthy Beaches for People & Fish�Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools for San Juan County, WA�Tina Whitman & Andrea MacLennan December 10, 2015Healthy Beaches for People & Fish�Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools for San Juan County, WA�Tina Whitman and Andrea MacLennan Healthy Beaches for People & Fish�Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools for San Juan County, WASlide Number 4Sea Level Rise Decision ToolsMake Informed DecisionsMake Informed DecisionsSlide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Make Informed DecisionsSlide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Make Informed DecisionsSlide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Want to learn more?Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools�San Juan County, WASJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsSJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsIn the future, normal tides may look more �like today’s extreme tidesSJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsSJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsSJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation Tools SJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsSJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsSJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsSJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsSJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsSJC Sea Level Rise Adaptation ToolsSlide Number 46

healthy beaches for people & fish sea level rise ...€¦ · seattle, wa . vancouver, bc . project...

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