health, environmental change examining and …€¦ · sporting event and we can do the same for...

project newsIssue 6 August 2014

Welcome to the 6th issue of the HEALTHY FUTURES newsletter, and Selamat Hari Raya Aidilfitri!

I often find myself writing these newsletter introductions while in transit somewhere. Perhaps because traveling provides one of the few opportunities to write unencumbered by the distractions that are familiar to anyone who spends large amounts of their time in an office, staring at a computer screen. This welcome statement is no different in that it is being written while making the short ferry crossing from Singapore to the Indonesian island of Batam. This weekend has an extra day off added, to enable celebration of Hari Raya Puasa, the ending of the Muslim period of fasting and the feast of Eid al-Fitr.

I was at the doctors here in Singapore recently (nothing serious, just the standard twice-per-year check-up). The doctor informed me that he had been quite unwell since we last met – with dengue. Outbreaks of dengue occur in Singapore,

continued on page 2page 1

www.healthyfutures.eu

ContentsP.1–2 P.2–6

P.7–9

P.10–11

P.12 -14

P.14

HEALTH, ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY: MAPPING, EXAMINING AND ANTICIPATING FUTURE RISKS OF WATER-RELATED VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES IN EASTERN AFRICA

seemingly with increasing frequency and severity, with the main outbreaks tending to cluster and to re-appear in the same location. An apparent increased frequency and severity of dengue in Singapore has triggered an increase in both funding for research on the disease and attention from the media. My doctor should perhaps consider himself fortunate, as this was his first dengue infection. One of the undergraduate students whose dissertation I am currently supervising has not been quite so fortunate, having contracted dengue on several occasions. Her interest in the disease has been raised as a result to the extent that she is now investigating the socio-economic factors that may be associated with locations in Singapore of repeated outbreaks of dengue.

All this talk of dengue reminds me of the fascinating study by Rachel Lowe and co-workers. Many members of the HEALTHY FUTURES consortium will know Rachel through her involvement in last year’s Environment and Health in Africa (Climate and vector-borne diseases) Symposium in Kigali, Rwanda and the Second Generic Skills and Networking Workshop, which was held at ICTP, Trieste, Italy. Earlier this year Rachel published in the journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases a study of the risk of dengue in Brazil, including in the urban areas that hosted football matches as part of the recent FIFA World Cup1. The

1 Lowe et al. (2014) Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model

framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 4, 619-626

Welcome from Scientific Coordinator

Research Updates

Meeting Report

In the News

Recent Publications

Forthcoming Events

Next Issue of the Newsletter

Welcome from the Scientific Coordinator

www.healthyfutures.eu

project newsIssue 6

page 2

continued on page 3

paper has attracted huge interest since its publication in May of this year. I am not sure whether anyone paid attention to the actual warnings (the urban areas concerned were all given a low risk for the time period coincident with the World Cup schedule, from what I recall), although dengue seems a convincing explanation for England’s woeful performances. As is indicated in the HEALTHY FUTURES research updates section that follows this introduction to the newsletter, all we need now is for the East African Community area to host an international sporting event and we can do the same for malaria, Rift Valley fever (RVF) and schistosomiasis as Rachel and co-workers did to such great effect for dengue!

Once again this is something of a bumper issue of the newsletter. In addition to the research updates section, this issue also includes information on recent meetings involving HEALTHY FUTURES researchers and stakeholders, and relatively lengthy In the news and Forthcoming events sections. For both these I am particularly grateful to those who have sent snippets of information to Ciara and myself. Some of the information cited has been drawn from the most recent (July 2014) newsletter of the Climate Services Partnership (CSP): I am particularly grateful to the editorial board of the CSP newsletter for keeping me well briefed. One forthcoming event that is not covered in the current issue of this newsletter is the release of a c. 15 minute-long documentary focusing on climate change and health in Africa. Several members of HEALTHY FUTURES contributed directly to the documentary, and some of these are interviewed on screen. I have seen a pre-release version of the documentary and can confirm that HEALTHY FUTURES (and the linked project QWeCI) feature prominently. Once the documentary has been finalised and released we will endeavour to make a copy of the video available in digital form via the project website.

The day is drawing to a close as we dodge between the numerous ships at berth offshore of Singapore and the smaller Riau islands en route to Batam. An apt metaphor for HEALTHY FUTURES as we navigate the last part of our four year journey towards project-end. This will most likely be the penultimate issue of the HEALTHY FUTURES newsletter; how quickly the last 42 months have passed. Much work remains to be done in the next less than half a year, with deliverables and final reports to complete and meetings to organise and participate in (commencing for many project members with the 6th (and final) Partners’ Meeting in Salzburg, 9-11 September).

Let me take this opportunity first to thank those of you who have contributed to this newsletter. Thanks also to the production team at AquaTT for their efforts first in collating

much of the information referred to and then for turning my sow’s ear into something more closely resembling a silk purse. Finally, thanks to you in particular for your continued interest in and support for the HEALTHY FUTURES project. I hope to see you again soon!

David Taylor ([email protected] ), Scientific Coordinator HEALTHY FUTURES and NUS, Singapore

Development of a schistosomiasis and water temperature model by the University of Durham

Nicky McCreesh, supervised by Mark Booth at UDUR, has developed an agent-based model of schistosomiasis and water temperature. Two papers relating to the model have been published in the highly regarded journal PLOS ONE. The first of these describes the model and examines the effects of different constant and diurnally varying temperatures on transmission potential2. The effect of simulating different snail species was explored in the second article3. The model has since been run using climate projections for eastern Africa, and maps produced highlighting areas where temperatures are likely to become more or less suitable for schistosomiasis transmission over the next 20 and 50 years, and areas at risk of new endemicity. This work was presented by Nicky at the British Society for Parasitology Spring

continued from page 1

2 McCreesh N, Booth M. (2014) The effect of increasing water temperatures on Schistosoma mansoni transmission and Biomphalaria pfeifferi population dynamics: An agent-based modelling study. PLOS ONE, 9(7):e101462.

3 McCreesh N, Booth M. (2014) The effect of simulating different intermediate host snail species on the link between water temperature and schistosomiasis risk. PLOS ONE, 9(7):e87892.

Collecting snails at Lake Albert

RESEARCH UPDATES

project newsIssue 6

Meeting in April, and will be submitted for publication shortly. Mark has also presented the results of this work as a keynote speaker at the March 2014 Danish Society for Parasitology Spring Symposium and as a guest lecturer at ICTP-IITM-COLA Targeted Training Activity “Challenge in Monsoon Prediction” in June 2014.

Fieldwork in Uganda has now been completed. Fieldwork focused on the collection of data relating to the effects of different constant temperatures on the fecundity, growth and mortality of Biomphalaria sudanica snails. Data were

also collected in the field on the effect of high snail densities on snail fecundity and mortality in semi-natural conditions. These data can be used to inform the parameterisation of mathematical models to local conditions in Lake Albert, and other water bodies where B. sudanica are found.

Finally, Nicky is currently writing up her PhD thesis, which will be ready for submission before the end of 2014.

Nicky McCreesh ([email protected]) and Mark Booth ([email protected]) University of Durham

Snail cages in Lake Albert. The cages were used to determine the effect of different snail densities on the snail populations.

page 3

continued on page 4

Project Focus – Spatial dynamical disease models

The Situation pre-project One of the critical knowledge gaps identified in the project design phase was the lack of spatially explicit dynamical models that were capable of simulating the response of the three target diseases, schistosomiasis, malaria and RVF to changes in environment, population and climate. Malaria is possibly the most studied and best understood of the three diseases, but much of the previous mathematical modelling work has focused on the disease dynamic in an idealised framework or a single location setting, and often climate and environmental factors were entirely neglected. For decision support services on a national or regional scale, spatially explicit modeling systems that account for climate are required. At the project outset, only malaria had such a system available, one of the best-known examples being

the (University of) Liverpool malaria model (LMM), which accounted for climate in the vector and parasite life cycles and related vector densities to rainfall. No equivalent modelling tools existed for schistosomiasis or RVF.

What has HEALTHY FUTURES achieved? As the requisite “engine” of spatial decision support systems that are a key goal of the project, disease model development has represented a research crux over the four years. The results are impressive: from a situation of one dynamical modelling system in total pre-project, each disease is now modelled by one or even two (allowing model uncertainty to be assessed) dynamical modelling systems!

Schistosomiasis is represented by the new Durham schistosomiasis model (DSM) (referred to in the previous piece in the current newsletter). The DSM accounts for the

project newsIssue 6

effects of water temperature on the life cycles of the parasite and the snail populations that act as an intermediate host, and first results of the effects of temperature on infection risk have recently been published in PLOS ONE. Future developments may incorporate the human behavioural influence on the disease transmission.

Malaria is now modelled by a second system known as VECTRI, developed at ICTP through HEALTHY FUTURES and its sister project QWeCI. VECTRI uses a similar underlying modelling framework to the LMM, but introduces a new way to represent the surface hydrology of the small pools that key vectors utilise as breeding sites. In addition, population density affects disease transmission rates, thus reproducing observed rural/urban transmission contrasts. The model is intended to be an open source community model, and has already been adopted by several research institutes in Africa, Europe and the United States.

Rift Valley fever is also now modelled with two independent systems developed by partners ILRI and the University of Liverpool. The ILRI model has an idealised spatial framework, and temperature and rainfall impact vector densities in a similar fashion to the LMM/VECTRI. The model incorporates two separate classes for cattle and sheep, each with a different stock replacement timescale, to assess how immunity impacts the outbreak return time. In tandem, the University of Liverpool team has conducted extensive research to adapt the comprehensive LMM framework to RVF transmission. As a major undertaking, this work is coming to fruition in the final year of the project in time for incorporation into the decision support framework.

Where next? Obviously, the research does not stop here; the disease modelling systems are tools to assist further understanding. To this end, intensive research is on-going in the final year of HEALTHY FUTURES to understand how climate and environmental changes such as forest conversion to agricultural use may impact disease hazard. A key challenge that is currently being addressed is to determine the best way to interface these very distinct modelling systems effectively into the spatial, web-based decision support system that has been developed at PLUS. The results of this final critical stage of the project will be presented at the upcoming HEALTHY FUTURES-sponsored conference in Rwanda in November 2014.

Further Reading: Caminade, Cyril, et al. “Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111.9 (2014): 3286-3291.

McCreesh, Nicky, and Mark Booth. “The effect of simulating different intermediate host snail species on the link between water temperature and schistosomiasis risk.” PLOS ONE 9.7 (2014): e87892.

McCreesh, Nicky, and Mark Booth. “The Effect of Increasing Water Temperatures on Schistosoma mansoni Transmission and Biomphalaria pfeifferi Population Dynamics: An Agent-Based Modelling Study.” PLOS ONE 9.7 (2014): e101462.

Tompkins, Adrian M., and Volker Ermert. “A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology.” Malar J 12 (2013): 65.

Adrian Tompkins ([email protected] ), ICTP, Italy

Jean Pierre Bizimana’s 3rd Research Stay at Salzburg University, Austria

From March 8 to June 6 2014, Jean Pierre Bizimana, PhD Student from the University of Rwanda spent three months for his third secondment at the Interfaculty Department of Geoinformatics – Z_GIS, University of Salzburg, Austria. His PhD research focuses on the “Linkage between Climate Variability and Community Vulnerability to Malaria in Rwanda”. Based in Rwanda, Jean Pierre is co-supervised by Dr Stefan Kienberger (Z_GIS) and funded through HEALTHY FUTURES.

Jean Pierre Bizimana

continued on page 5


project newsIssue 6

During his stay in Salzburg, Jean Pierre applied a composite indicator approach to assess socioeconomic vulnerability to malaria at District-level in Rwanda (Figure 1). By integrating multisource indicators of vulnerability to malaria, he was able to identify the most vulnerable districts in Rwandain terms of susceptibility to malaria infections, including poorly-developed mechanisms and processes through which outbreaks can be anticipated, and being able to cope with or to recover from malaria infection. The outcome of this part of his research has been an article (Bizimana, J.P; Kienberger, S. and Twarabamenye, E. “Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda”) that is currently under review in Malaria Journal.

While in Salzburg, Jean Pierre also used integrated geons as part of a spatially explicit approach for modelling homogeneous regions of vulnerability, which are independent

from administrative boundaries (Figure 2). High levels of socioeconomic vulnerability to malaria are mainly found in more remote highland parts of Rwanda where local communities often lack the capacity to anticipate mosquito biting exposure or are not sufficiently resilient to cope with or recover from malaria infection. By decomposing vulnerability into its underlying factors, the approach indicates which problem domains need to be addressed and highlights where appropriate interventions are most needed. The outcome of this integrated modelling is an article: Bizimana, J.P; Kienberger, S.; Hagenlocher, M., and Twarabamenye, E. “Modelling homogenous regions of socioeconomic vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda”, which has been submitted to International Journal of Applied Geography.

Socioeconomic vulnerability to malaria at district level in Rwanda Figure 1

continued on page 6

project newsIssue 6

Des

igne

d by

Aqu

aTT

For future work, Jean Pierre plans to use a case study approach in two areas of contrasting malaria endemicity in Rwanda. This part of his PhD aims to: (1) analyse the community perceptions and knowledge about malaria; (2) investigate the community involvement in sustaining the achievements of existing malaria control policy; and (3) highlight the socioeconomic drivers of vulnerability to climate change induced malaria at community level in highland parts of Rwanda.

While the research stay at the University of Salzburg was a very busy period overall, the working environment, weather conditions, beautiful city of Salzburg and the surrounding Alps provided lots of opportunities and stimulation to take enjoyable and rejuvenating breaks from work. Jean

Pierre would like to take this opportunity to express his gratitude for the guidance, support, warmth and attention received from all staff in the Interfaculty Department of Geoinformatics of University of Salzburg. He is looking forward to meeting the Z_GIS Team and HEALTHY FUTURES partners again at the international conference on “Climate Change and Vector Borne Diseases” to be held on 18-20th November, 2014, Kigali Rwanda.

Jean Pierre Bizimana ([email protected] ), University of Rwanda, and Stefan Kienberger ([email protected] ), University of Salzburg.

Homogeneous regions of socioeconomic vulnerability to malaria Figure 2

project newsIssue 6

MEETING REPORTSStakeholder Engagement Workshop, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya

A HEALTHY FUTURES stakeholder workshop was held from 24 - 25th February 2014 at the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi. The aims of the workshop were to raise the profile of HEALTHY FUTURES’ research among selected stakeholders in eastern Africa and to further the process of enabling the development and effective uptake of decision support tools (DSTs) arising from the project.

Specifically, the workshop had the following objectives:

1. To communicate the project research outputs (modelling, mapping DSTs, etc.) that are currently in progress for each of the three target diseases (malaria, schistosomiasis and RVF)

2. To collect feedback on the value of the research outputs to date and on how to support their uptake by decision-makers, for example, integration of modelling results into DSTs

3. To develop case studies for the application of DSTs;

4. To test different decision-making methods through the use of case study examples to compare the value of various intervention strategies

5. To define the outputs and needs for further stakeholder engagement in HEALTHY FUTURES and beyond

Participants in the workshop included a number of HEALTHY FUTURES partners, external members of the HEALTHY FUTURES Expert Review Panel (ERP) and representatives from government ministries and research institutes in eastern Africa. During the first day of the workshop, plenary presentations were made by project partners to introduce the project and provide updates on case studies on the three diseases. The presentations included: an overview of the HEALTHY FUTURES project; malaria projections for 2050 and how climate information can be integrated into health planning; sources of climate data for national decision-making; guidance that models can provide for schistosomiasis control; and a DST for RVF. On the second day of the workshop, participants carried on working in three groups, each focused on one of the diseases and using the case studies presented by the stakeholders during day one. The groups tested two of the methods or ‘engines’ of the adaptation decision explorer (ADx) tool: the voting method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process. ADx was being trialed at the workshop as a possible component of a DST.

Malaria Group Rift Valley fever Group

Schistosomiasis Group

continued on page 8

project newsIssue 6

The stakeholder engagement workshop was a positive step forward in communicating the latest research from the project to stakeholders, in receiving feedback about what specific concerns decision makers have, and in sharing insights into how those concerns could best be addressed. However, it also identified some tensions in the decision-making scope and scale for which future inputs are most needed. Particularly, there was often a divide between the long-term time horizon of climate change messages and the short-term time horizon of interest to decision-makers; bridging the twoaremaains a challenge.

Thus, the workshop highlighted the fact that obtaining expert stakeholder feedback will require an improvement in communication among scientists and stakeholders, though it was clear from the scientific presentations that the partners were well aware of the timeframe disconnect. Moreover, stakeholder engagement is not only about tools: the consortium partners also need to identify key messages and decide how best to present them to decision makers. One specific request to emerge from the workshop was for concise, user-friendly summaries of the likely risks of the three target diseases under changing conditions predicted


for coming decades. These summaries were subsequently produced by members of the HEALTHY FUTURES consortium who were present at the meeting and can be accessed via the HEALTHY FUTURES project website at: Malaria http://healthyfutures.eu/images/Media_centre_articles/HEALTHY_FUTURES_Disease_Summary_Malaria.pdf Schistosomiasis http://healthyfutures.eu/images/Media_centre_articles/HEALTHY_FUTURES_Disease_Summary_Schistosomiasis.pdf Rift Valley fever http://healthyfutures.eu/images/Media_centre_articles/HEALTHY_FUTURES_Disease_Summary_Rift_Valley_Fever.pdf Overall, the stakeholder engagement workshop proved to be a valuable exercise in identifying how the outputs of the HEALTHY FUTURES project can be designed to meet the needs of decision makers in the East African Community area.

More information on the stakeholder engagement workshop can be found on the project website http://www.healthyfutures.eu/images/Nairobi_Stakeholder_Engagement_Workshop_Report.pdf

Stacey Noel, ([email protected]) University of York

Group photograph of those who attended the Stakeholder Engagement Workshop in Nairobi.

Fifth partners’ meeting and fourth Expert Review Panel meetings, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya.As HEALTHY FUTURES entered its final year, project partners and members of the ERP met to discuss the progress made to date and to plan the remaining months of

the project at the fifth partners’ meeting and accompanying fourth ERP meeting. Three days of meetings were held at ILRI’s facilities in Nairobi, Kenya from the 26–28 February.

On the first day of the partners’ meeting each work package leader presented updates on the work carried out and progress made in each work package since the last partners’

continued on page 9

project newsIssue 6

meeting, held in Trieste, Italy, May 2013. The Risk and Vulnerability Atlas currently being developed by PLUS was presented to the partners by Stefan Kienberger, who explained the methodology used and demonstrated how the atlas can be used. The remainder of day one focused on discussions surrounding the development of DSTs within the project. The second day of the meeting continued to discuss the DSTs and partners were divided into three groups, one for each of the target diseases, to identify the relevant questions that need to be addressed by the DST developed within the project. These groups produced summaries of the environmental change impacts on the three target diseases, which were

requested during the preceding stakeholder engagement workshop. The organisation of the upcoming conference ‘Climate Change and Vector Borne disease: Past, Present and Futures’ was also discussed and recommendations were made to Theophile Niyonzima (UR), the chair of the conference local organising committee (LOC). One of the main recommendations was that the LOC be much more proactive than it had been to date in facilitating organisation of and securing sponsorship for the conference in order to ensure its success. Those involved in organising the conference were also urged to consider providing an opportunity to those presenting at the conference in Kigali to publish their presentations in a special issue of a reputable journal, linked to the conference, such as Geospatial Health.

The ERP provides scientific supervision and reviews the

Members of the HEALTHY FUTURES consortium who were able to attend the 5th Partners Meeting, Nairobi.

project’s methodologies and comprises work package leaders, the management team and a number of experts who are not HEALTHY FUTURES members. The external members of the ERP included Dr. Madeline Thompson, (International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia Earth Institute), Dr. John B. Malone (School of Veterinary Medicine, Louisiana State University) and Mr. Brian Otiende (Climate Change Coordinator, East African Community) who were in attendance at the partners meeting. This provided the external experts with the opportunity to engage with the full partnership and to be updated on all aspects of the project before the ERP meeting.

During the ERP meeting, chaired by Theophile Niyonzima (UR), the panel assessed the progress made in relation to each work package since the last partners meeting and a number of recommendations were made in relation to specific work packages. The report from the ERP meeting is available through the HEALTHY FUTURES project website (http://www.healthyfutures.eu/images/healthy/deliverables/healthy%20futures%20d7.4%20expert%20review%20panel%20meeting%204.pdf)

The meeting in Nairobi was the last ERP meeting. The HEALTHY FUTURES consortium would like to thank members of the ERP for their very important contributions to the project over the past three years. Ciara Egan ([email protected]), AquaTT

project newsIssue 6

IN THE NEWSDownscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission

Availability of a new global dataset for precipitation data

Researchers discover 6,200 year old schistosomiasis parasite egg

A synthetic sex ratio distortion system for the control of the human malaria mosquito

Future climate for Africa research opportunity

WMO and WHO Establish Joint Office for Climate and Health

In a new study published in Climatic Change, scientists at the University of Pennsylvania have examined how changes in temperature owing to future climate warming might impact the potential for mosquitoes to transmit malaria. They compared malaria transmission at four sites in Kenya that differed in their baseline environmental characteristics—two sites were cool upland locations, a third site was a warm lower-altitude site, and a fourth was situated in a hot savannah-like environment. Shortened URL: http://goo.gl/0m3iCL

The Climate Hazards Group (CHG), University of California, Santa Barbara (http://chg.geog.ucsb.edu) has made available a new dataset designed to deliver reliable, up to date, and more complete data for a number of early warning objectives. CHG InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) includes more than 30 years of quasi-global rainfall data and was created in collaboration with scientists at the US Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center. Spanning 50°S–50°N (and all longitudes) from 1981 to near present, CHIRPS incorporates 0.05° resolution satellite imagery with in-situ station data to create gridded rainfall time series for trend analysis and seasonal drought monitoring. For detailed information, please refer to this paper: http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/832/pdf/ds832.pdf

As of 1st May, 2014, version 1.8 of CHIRPS is complete and available to the public. Two CHIRPS products are produced operationally: a rapid preliminary version and a later final version. The preliminary CHIRPS product is available, for the entire domain, two days after the end of a pentad (2nd, 7th, 12th, 17th, 22nd and 27th). The preliminary CHIRPS uses only a single station source, GTS. The final CHIRPS product takes advantage of several other stations sources and is complete sometime after the 15th of the following month. Final monthly, dekad, pentad, and daily products are calculated at that time. Data are available through the CHG ftp site.

If you would like to be notified of the latest versions CHIRPS, please contact Pete Peterson of CHG

Researchers have discovered what they believe is the oldest ever schistosomiasis parasite egg in a 6,200-year-old grave by the Euphrates river in Syria, potentially providing the first evidence that agricultural irrigation systems - the artificial application of water to land or soil - may have contributed to the schistosomiasis burden. Shortened URL: http://goo.gl/VDJiaG

Scientists at Imperial College London have created mosquitoes that produce 95% male offspring, with the aim of helping control malaria. Shortened URL: http://goo.gl/QDHqn1

Many members of the HEALTHY FUTURES consortium will already be fully aware of this opportunity, funded by the NERC and DFID (UK). More information on the Future Climate for Africa research programme is available at: http://www.nerc.ac.uk/research/funded/programmes/fcfa/

The World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have joined forces to tackle the increasing risks to human health posed by weather and climate hazards such as extreme temperatures, floods, droughts and tropical cyclones.

continued on page 11

project newsIssue 6

Future Climate for Africa: Resilience in Zambia

Climate Services Adaptation Programme in Africa - Building Resilience in Disaster Risk Management, Food Security and Health

Congratulations to Professor David Taylor!

A new WHO/WMO Climate and Health office has been established under the auspices of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to promote the coordinated development and use of climate services to improve public health. It will increase awareness, build capacity, and connect meteorological services with experts in the health sector in an active partnership for climate adaptation and risk management. Shortened URL: http://goo.gl/2b6bLy

The Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Center (RCCC) facilitated meetings between officials, academics, scientists, and development practitioners in Zambia in May 2014. Two workshops were organised to discuss the country’s future climate and how climate science can support sustainable development. Two key questions were

The “Climate Services Adaptation Programme in Africa” is the first multi-agency initiative to be implemented under GFCS. This flagship programme will help develop user-driven climate services for food security, health, as well as disaster risk reduction in Malawi and Tanzania. The aim of the programme, funded by the Government of Norway, is to increase the resilience of people most vulnerable to the impacts of weather and climate-related hazards such as droughts and flooding and associated health risks, including malnutrition, cholera and malaria. Aiming to strengthen capacity both to develop and use climate services, the programme combines cutting-edge science with traditional knowledge in a joint effort of WMO, the CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS); the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO); the Chr. Michelsen Institute (CMI); the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) through the Tanzanian and Malawian Red Cross; the World Food Programme (WFP); and the WHO. For more information please visit: http://www.gfcs-climate.org/Norway_2

David Taylor, Professor of Tropical Environmental Change at the National University of Singapore (NUS) and Scientific Coordinator of HEALTHY FUTURES, was awarded a highly prestigious Provost’s Chair on 1 July 2014. Only a few such awards are made at NUS each year, and are granted in recognition of an individual’s international standing, academically, and contribution to their discipline. Well-done David!


posed: How can we ensure sustainable, climate-resilient development in Zambia?; and How can scientific climate information support this process?

The workshops included interactive learning exercises and games to stimulate discussion and formulate strategies for the future. Participants explored climate-related shocks and trends affecting development planning and discussed development options, and tried to relate these to climate science. The workshops also highlighted the importance of developing Zambia’s capacity to produce and update its own climate information, and integrate it into long-term decision-making. While good historical climate data exist for the country, they are often inaccessible to decision makers. A follow-up workshop is planned for September in Lusaka, with a final report due out shortly afterwards.

David Taylor

project newsIssue 6

HEALTHY FUTURES 6th Partners’ Meeting

WHO Conference on Health and Climate

Challenges in Malaria Research : Core science and innovation : BioMed Central

Second International Conference on Evaluating Climate Change and Development : Tackling a Key 21st Century Evaluation Challenge

The sixth and final HEALTHY FUTURES partners meeting is scheduled to take place from the 9 – 10th September hosted by the Department of Geoinformatics—Z_GIS, University of Salzburg (PLUS) in Salzburg, Austria.

Date: 27–29 August 2014 Location: WHO Headquarters, Geneva, Switzerland About: The conference brings together health, climate and sustainable development professionals and aims to provide guidance on mechanisms and interventions to both enhance health system resilience to climate risks and to gain health benefits of climate mitigation. The main themes of the conference are strengthening health systems resilience to climate change and promoting health while mitigating climate change. Read more: http://www.who.int/globalchange/mediacentre/events/climate-health-conference/en/

Date: 22–24 September 2014 Location: Oxford, United Kingdom About: This third biennial conference will bring together leading malaria researchers to review current progress and to chart future challenges, this time with a greater emphasis on basic science.

Date: 9–11 September 2014 Location: Washington DC, USA About: The conference will pull together a limited but representative number of evaluation practitioners and stakeholders from across the world to reflect on existing evaluation tools and methods on the one hand, while consolidating new and innovative approaches that address emerging climate change and development evaluation on the other. Read more: http://www.climate-eval.org/events/2014-conferenceFORTHCOMING

EVENTS

The Effect of Increasing Water Temperatures on Schistosoma mansoni Transmission and Biomphalaria pfeifferi Population Dynamics: An Agent-Based Modelling Study

The Effect of Simulating Different Intermediate Host Snail Species on the Link between Water Temperature and Schistosomiasis Risk

McCreesh N, Booth M (2014) The Effect of Increasing Water Temperatures on Schistosoma mansoni Transmission and Biomphalaria pfeifferi Population Dynamics: An Agent-Based Modelling Study. PLOS ONE 9(7): e101462. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0101462 Shortened URL: http://goo.gl/F0Zg1m

McCreesh N, Booth M (2014) The Effect of Simulating Different Intermediate Host Snail Species on the Link between Water Temperature and Schistosomiasis Risk. PLOS ONE 9(7): e87892. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0087892 Shortened URL: http://goo.gl/gy2ZAr

RECENT PUBLICATIONSThis section includes details of some of the growing number of scientific publications acknowledging HEALTHY FUTURES. All HEALTHY FUTURES related publications are available on the project website http://www.healthyfutures.eu/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&layout=item&id=160&Itemid=272&lang=en


project newsIssue 6

Climate Summit 2014 : United Nations

Measuring Progress – Biennial Meeting : Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

Third GRF One Health Summit 2014

Date: 23 September 2014 Location: UN Headquarters, New York, USA About: The Climate Summit, hosted by Secretary-General, Ban Ki-Moon, aims to engage leaders and advance climate action and ambition. The Summit will serve as a public platform for leaders at the highest level – all UN Member States, as well as finance, business, civil society and local leaders from public and private sectors – to catalyse ambitious action on the ground to reduce emissions and strengthen climate resilience and mobilize political will for an ambitious global legal agreement by 2015 that limits the world to a less than 2-degree Celsius rise in global temperature. The Climate Summit will be focused on actions and solutions by both national governments and groups of governments working together with a variety of actors from the private sector and civil society to accelerate progress in areas that go far to reduce emissions and strengthen resilience – in areas such as energy; short-lived climate pollutants; cities and transportation; sustainable agriculture and forestry; adaptation and disaster risk reduction; and climate finance and the economic drivers. Read more: http://www.un.org/climatechange/climate-summit-2014/

Date: 25–27 September Location: Oxford, United Kingdom About: This exciting meeting will attract delegates from around the globe with an interest in tropical medicine

Date: 5–8 October 2014 Location: Davos, Switzerland About: Today’s human health management must be dealt with from a holistic “One Health” perspective that acknowledges the systemic interconnections of human, animal and environmental health in close relation with food safety and security. Knowledge sharing, education, improved governance, corporate responsibility and dedicated investments will be key. The third GRF One Health Summit will further develop and strengthen the One Health paradigm and its global movement. In particu-lar this gathering will focus on the added value of a global One Health approach and a stronger involvement of the private sector and policy. Read more: http://onehealth.grforum.org/home/


Internationally renowned speakers will present their insights into core science and innovation in malaria research – including Plasmodium vivax epidemiology; trends and impacts; G6PD deficiency; vaccines; genome mapping and molecular epidemiology; new clues for drug development; mathematical modelling; cutting edge in cell biology; new issues in clinical malaria and pathology; and a special session on vectors in memory of Mario Coluzzi. Read more: http://www.who.int/globalchange/mediacentre/events/climate-health-conference/en/


and global health. Topics which will be addressed include: measuring resistance to insecticides and drugs and its threat to progress; measuring morbidity and mortality at finer temporal and spatial scales; Neglected Tropical Diseases: measuring progress towards 2020 control and elimination goals; measuring progress in zoonoses and animal health; development aid: measuring progress achieved; measuring progress against sexually transmitted diseases; measuring progress with trials and measuring progress in the NGO/charity sector. More information: https://rstmhmeasuringprogress.org/

The Climate Symposium 2014 : The European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites and the World Climate Research ProgrammeDate: 13–17 October Location: Darmstadt, Germany About: The main goal of the symposium is to provide a forum for discussing the current state of climate science and climate observations in order to evaluate recent achievements, ascertain critical objectives to be achieved with satellite-based climate information, and identify gaps in the current space-based component of the climate observing system. A major topic that will be discussed is the proposed Architecture for sustained Climate Monitoring from Space that has been developed under the auspices of

project newsIssue 6

IPCC 40 : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Climate change and Vector Borne Diseases : Past, Present and Future

Date: 27–31 October 2014 Location: Copenhagen, Denmark About: The 40th session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 40) will be held to adopt the Fifth Assessment Review (AR5) Synthesis Report and approve its Summary for Policy Makers. Subsequently, in December 2014, a copy of the Synthesis Report will be presented to the 20th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 20) to the UNFCCC. More information: http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm

Date: 18-20 November 2014 Location: Kigali, Rwanda About: The University of Rwanda with the support of the EUFP7 HEALTHY FUTURES project is hosting an international conference on “Climate Change and Vector Borne Diseases: Past, Present and Future”. The conference welcomes contributions relating to both observational and modelling studies of vector borne disease, in particular with regard to past, present or potential future changes that have or may occur in response to changes environmental, socioeconomic and climate conditions. Research presented


the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS), the Coordination Group of Meteorological Satellites (CGMS) and WMO. Beyond the monitoring of the current state of the Climate System, the conference will also consider how Earth observation contributes to future developments in climate prediction and climate change projection. The symposium and the follow-on activities are expected to benefit climate-related risk management, and help to underpin the development of responsible and affordable climate change mitigation and adaptation options. A key aspect will be the detection and attribution of climate change beyond the basic variables. The symposium will also benefit climate science by putting in motion a process for creating a joint action plan for the planning and development of an enhanced international space-based climate observing system building on existing activities. The plan will be responsive to the current and emerging needs in the areas of climate research, modelling and services (i.e. Global Framework for Climate Services). Read more: http://www.theclimatesymposium2014.com/index_.php/climatesymposium/index

may also focus on human vulnerability and how to integrate science output into national policy for reacting to present-day disease outbreaks and over longer time scales into national adaptation plans for climate change. Read more: http://www.climatechange-vbdconference2014.ur.ac.rw/

NEXT ISSUE OF THE NEWSLETTERThe next (seventh) and most likely the final issue of the HEALTHY FUTURES project newsletter is scheduled for release in late 2014. Please send contributions for the next issue to: David Taylor ([email protected]) or Ciara Egan ([email protected]). Please send your contributions as soon as possible, rather than waiting for the deadline for submissions to become imminent.

UNFCCC COP 20 : United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Environmental Changes and Infectious Diseases

Date: 1–12 December 2014 Location: Lima, Peru About: The 20th session of the Conference of the Parties and the 10th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol will be held from 1 to 12 December. COP 20/CMP 10 will be hosted by the Government of Peru, in Lima, Peru. Read more: https://unfccc.int/meetings/lima_dec_2014/meeting/8141.php

Date: 23-25 March 2015 Location: Sitges, Spain About: Environmental changes — the manifestations of which can include loss of biodiversity and habitat, increasing atmospheric temperature, rising sea level, and climatic instability (e.g., longer and more severe periods of drought or rainfall) — are likely to affect the prevalence of various infectious diseases by making conditions more (or less) propitious for the survival of pathogens and their vectors, and by inducing mass movement of human and animal populations. This conference will discuss the impact of current and predicted future environmental changes on infectious disease dynamics in people, wildlife, and livestock across the globe, and what actions need to be taken. Read more: http://www.iecid2015.com/

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 266327. This publication reflects the views only of the author, and the European Union cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.

health, environmental change examining and …€¦ · sporting event and we can do the same for...

Documents