headwaters internet advertising trends 2013
DESCRIPTION
Internet advertising is at an inflection point in its history as the industry continues to grow and mature. In preparation for our first annual Internet Advertising trends report, we spoke to over 150 Internet Advertising companies. Our findings include: Overall Internet Advertising growth remains strong as Internet Advertising takes share from traditional advertising Mobile is changing the landscape – yet is still, in many cases, separate from other web IA approaches and solutions. Social media's importance for Internet Advertising is established – how to effectively deal with it is still a question mark for most advertisers Search is becoming more local and mobile Current view of the Internet Advertising landscape is overly complicated - it's not that hard Unless you offer neutral data and tools, you are not going to be able serve both publishers and advertisers effectively We are still early in the maturation of the sector Customer sophistication is still early – even the most successful advertisers "get it less wrong!” to a degree Search and DR remain the foundations for successful internet advertising campaigns – but no longer stand alone Big data, social and mobile driving richer data sets enabling advanced analytics Attribution & Transparency will be hot in 2013 as customers drive for better ROI Publishers - Tool Up, Adapt or DIE RTB is hot now - but winners must evolve quickly as publishers and advertisers become more sophisticated Brand dollars still sitting on the sideline (mostly) but change is coming M&A remains steady but multiples likely pressured in 2013 due to scale and overfundingTRANSCRIPT
Internet Advertising Trends - 2013
Mark R. Langner"Managing Director – Industry Analysis
January 2013
Page 2
Contents
1. Summary
2. Internet Industry Statistics – Internet Growth Shifting To Emerging Markets and Asia; Mobile Data Consumption Driving Importance of Mobile Strategies; Mobile is Growing at Expense of Desktop Usage in U.S. and Europe; Mobile’s Importance Grows as Users Sift from Desktop to Mobile; Social Media’s Importance for Internet Advertising is Established…; As Social Media Has Become Nearly 20% of Time Spent On-Line; Search is Changing – Becoming More Local and Mobile.
3. Internet Advertising Market Figures – Internet Advertising Has Grown Rapidly…; And is Projected to Continue Growing Rapidly; Digital’s Share of Worldwide Ad Spend Will Rise; Mobile Advertising Market Needs to Catch Up to Usage; Which Means Expect Mobile’s Share of Spend to Grow Fast.
4. Key Internet Advertising Industry Trends – Making Sense of the IA Landscape; Headwaters’ View of IA Landscape; The Basics (Search and Direct Response) – Still Lots of Opportunity; Search – Many Advertisers Still Struggle With The Basics; Direct Response Continues to Be Important – But Harder; Long-Term – Search and DR are Foundations for Success; Publishers – Tool Up, Adapt, or Die; More Analytics = Better Performance?; Importance of Attribution and Transparency; RTB is Growing Rapidly – Is this Good or Bad?; RTB – Our View and Outlook for the Future; What About the Long Tail?; Mobile – Convergence and Divergence; Will Brands Ever Go Digital?; Why Brand Dollars Will Eventually Move to Digital.
5. Internet Advertising and the M&A Trends for 2013 – Internet Advertising M&A Volume Remains Steady; VC Investment in IA Declining Rapidly; The IA Landscape, Investment and Consolidation; Where Do We Expect Continued Investment?; Where Will Consolidation Come First?
SUMMARY"
Section 1
Page 4
Summary
Headwaters spoke to over 150 Internet Advertising companies in preparation of this report. A summary of the trends we are seeing is as follows:
1. Overall Internet Advertising growth remains strong as Internet Advertising takes share from traditional advertising
2. Mobile is changing the landscape – yet is still, in many cases, separate from other web IA approaches and solutions.
3. Social media's importance for Internet Advertising is established – how to effectively deal with it is still a question mark for most advertisers
4. Search is becoming more local and mobile
5. Current view of the Internet Advertising landscape is overly complicated - it's not that hard!
6. Unless you offer neutral data and tools, you are not going to be able serve both publishers and advertisers effectively!
7. We are still early in the maturation of the sector
8. Customer sophistication is still early – even he most successful advertisers "get it less wrong!” to a degree
9. Search and DR remain the foundations for successful internet advertising campaigns – but no longer stand alone
10. Big data, social and mobile driving richer data sets enabling advanced analytics
11. Attribution & Transparency will be hot in 2013 as customers drive for better ROI
12. Publishers - Tool Up, Adapt or DIE
13. RTB is hot now - but winners must evolve quickly as publishers and advertisers become more sophisticated
14. Brand dollars still sitting on the sideline (mostly) but change is coming
15. M&A remains steady but multiples likely pressured in 2013 due to scale and overfunding
INTERNET INDUSTRY STATISTICS""
Section 2
Page 6
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Internet Growth Shifting To Emerging Markets And Asia • 2.26 B Internet Users • 72% Growth During Last 5 Years
• Europe & U.S. Approaching Saturation • Continued Strong Growth in Asia & Emerging Markets
Asia
Asia
Europe
U.S. & Canada
Mid-‐East
Africa
La9n America
Oceania
Rapid Growth/Low Penetra9on
Slower Growth/Approaching Satura9on
1.0B Internet Users -‐ 2011 99% Growth 2007-‐2011 27% Internet Penetra9on
139mm Internet Users -‐2011 215% Growth 2007-‐2011 13% Internet Penetra9on
501mm Internet Users -‐ 2011 25% Growth 2007-‐2011 68% Internet Penetra9on 273mm Internet Users -‐ 2011 15% Growth 2007-‐2011 79% Internet Penetra9on
Source: ITU, United Na3ons, US Census Bureau, GfK, and www.internetworldstats.com
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Mobile Data Consumption Driving Importance Of Mobile Strategies
Mobile Internet Usage Exploding; e.g., AT&T Mobile Data Usage Up 8,000% in Four Years
2007 2008 2009 2010
5B
10B
15B PB
/Mon
th
Source: AT&T
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Mobile Is Growing At Expense Of Desktop Usage In U.S. And Europe
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Mobile Users
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ile Sha
re of N
orth American
Internet Traffic
North Am
erica Internet Users (in millions)
3% CAGR
In Established Markets Mobile/Internet Shift is Net Sum Game; U.S. User Growth at 3% CAGR; Mobile Share of Overall Internet Traffic Growing at 88% CAGR
Source: ITU, United Na3ons, US Census Bureau, GfK, www.internetworldstats.com; StatsCounter Global Stats
Page 9
Mobile’s Importance Grows As Users Shift From Desktop To Mobile
Internet Use Shifting from Desktop to Mobile; Mobile Now 10.3% of Worldwide Internet Traffic
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Source: StatsCounter Global Stats
Mob
ile Sha
re of W
orldwide
Internet Traffic
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Social Media’s Importance For Internet Advertising Is Established…
Unsurprisingly, Adoption of Social Media is Huge; Facebook Dominates
1mm 6mm 12mm 58mm
145mm
360mm
608mm
845mm
0
300
600
900
12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11
Facebook User Growth
Mon
thly Ac9ve Users (in millions)
Other Social Networking Monthly Ac9ve Users*
TwiYer 465mm LinkedIn 161mm** Instagram 40mm Pinterest 14mm***
Source: Facebook, TwiLer, LinkedIn, TechCrunch, AppData, comScore
* As of 5/31/12 ** As of 3/30/12 *** Includes only “Facebook Connected Users”
Facebook Reaches 83% of American Internet Users
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… As Social Media Has Become Nearly 20% Of Time Spent On-line
Social’s Share of On-Line Time Continues to Grow; Now Estimated as high as 25% of Time Spent On-Line
6% in 2007
19% in October 2011
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Search Is Changing – Becoming More Local And Mobile
Local Search is Growing; Mobile is Key Driver and Poised to Overtake Desktop for Local Searches
Source comScore, BIA Kelsey
INTERNET ADVERTISING MARKET FIGURES
Section 3
Page 14
Internet Advertising Has Grown Rapidly…
Internet Advertising Market Growth Has Been Robust; 20.3% CAGR
Source: IAB
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… And Is Projected To Continue Growing Rapidly
Spending on Internet Advertising is Expected to Nearly Double in Next Three Years
Source: Through 2011 (IAB / PwC), 2012 data thereaZer (eMarketer, September 2012) Figures include adver3sing formats on desktop, laptop, mobile phones and tablet pla\orms
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Digital’s Share Of Worldwide Ad Spend Will Rise
Growing from 20% to 25% Over Next Four Years
Source: eMarketer
Page 17
Mobile Advertising Market Needs To Catch Up To Usage…
There is Material Upside Opportunity for Mobile Ad Spend vs. Current Levels of Mobile Usage
Source: KPCB, eMarketer (1) IAB (2011) (2) Assuming Internet and mobile ad spending share equivalent to respec3ve 3me spent share
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…Which Means Expect Mobile’s Share Of Spend To Grow Fast
Mobile Advertising is Expected to Grow at Much Faster Rate than Other Formats
Source: Comscore, BIA Kelsey
KEY INTERNET ADVERTISING INDUSTRY TRENDS
Section 4
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Making Sense Of The IA Landscape
This is NOT a Sustainable View of the Market!
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Making Sense Of The IA Landscape (Cont.)
Current View of the Landscape is Overly Complex • Talk to enough of these companies (100+ in our research) and what they do starts to bleed together
Complex Industry View Requires Unnecessary Differentiation • Venture capital has overfunded the sector, requiring companies to slice the pie ever thinner to differentiate • Given that this is an industry of “Marketers,” tendency to creatively create distinctions where none are required
• When you speak to customers at the industry trade shows, they are confused by the attempted differentiations
Ultimately Many of these “Companies” are Actually Products or Point Solutions • Not enough market demand in many of these sectors to support 8-10 companies • Expect continued consolidation as leaders assemble more complete solutions
“Any fool can make something complex. It is hard to keep things simple.” – Sir Richard Branson
Or if you prefer old-‐school:
“Any intelligent fool can make things bigger and more complex… It takes a touch of genius – and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direc3on.” – Albert Einstein
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Headwaters’ View Of IA Landscape
Market is Coalescing Around 5 Key Functions • First is a split between buy-side and sell-side, with companies serving the unique needs of publishers and advertisers
• Second is split between enabling technologies (analytics, management and decision tools) & efficiency technologies (exchanges and transaction management) focused on the needs of either advertisers or publishers (but not both!)
• Last is a set of neutral data sources and data management tools that can serve both sides of the market
A More Simplified View of the IA Landscape:
Analytics, Management and Decision
Tools
Exchanges and
Transaction Management
Exchanges and
Transaction Management
Analytics, Management and Decision
Tools
Neutral Data and Tools
Buyside -‐ Adver9sers Sellside – Content Publishers
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The Basics (Search And Direct Response) – Still Lots Of Opportunity
“The reality is that we are s3ll at the top of the third inning when it comes to the development of AdTech companies” – John Batdorf, Managing Director and Head of Internet Adver3sing Banking, Headwaters MB
“At this point, the smartest and most successful adver3sers are crea3ng tremendous value for themselves by preLy much gehng it ‘less wrong’ than their compe3tors” – AdTech Industry Guru
We are at the Hihng the Side of a Barn Stage
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Search - Many Advertisers Still Struggle With The Basics
Partially Because the Concept of “Basic” has Become More Sophisticated • It is no longer okay to just be in the digital arena
• Competition for digital real estate has squeezed out the “easy” gains • Simple approaches that may have worked two years ago are no longer
sufficient
Successful Search Strategies Must Encompass Both Organic and Paid Search Strategies • This highlights the growing importance of SEM/SEO tools and effective
strategies for deploying search dollars • According to one CEO, roughly 50% of their search customers have
significant room for improvement over their current strategies • Organic search is still critical – especially as the costs for paid search
have risen • Quality of data – and ability to combine public and private data – will
be important going forward
Page 25
Direct Response Continues To Be Important – But Harder
DR has Become More Complex • Tools to understand attribution that drive ROI are key
• More sophisticated advertisers are working to integrate DR with on-line branding efforts
Social, Mobile and Video Pose Challenges to Managing DR Campaigns • Still on the learning curve - applying traditional web metrics to these
different formats has proven ineffective • Growing complexity of user behavior in the digital environment has
brought similar complexity to what constitutes an effective campaign
More Complexity = More Tools = More Need for Resource for Advertisers • Challenge for SMB to keep pace
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Long-term – Search And DR Are Foundations For Success
In Future, Search and DR Will Be Cornerstones of More Complex Multi-Channel Strategies
Various “Silos” Of Internet Advertising Solutions Need to Breakdown Eventually • In future the sophisticated will evaluate ROI across various digital opportunities • Data from successful search and DR campaigns will inform other complementary efforts, e.g., mobile, local, social, digital branding, etc.
This is not a 2013 Market – Though May Influence Some 2013 Acquisition Activity As Companies Position Themselves for this Market in 2014-2015
Established Search and DR Players With Their Vast Data Experience and History Will Be Central to Breaking Down the Silos • Data ownership or ability to enable customers to harness proprietary data will be a differentiator
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Publishers - Tool Up, Adapt Or Die
Publishers Continue to Lag in Adtech “Arms Race”
Publishers Continue to Get Short End of Stick in Market • Few have power of large advertisers • Adtech business models such as “neutral exchanges” or RTB players that sit
between advertisers and publishers have been been able to exploit publishers
Publisher Control Over Inventory Limited at Best • Symptomatic of market where value of content is generally unknown
• Makes getting proper value for content difficult • Purchasing tools in this environment difficult but necessary
Publisher Business Models Need to Change In Order to Best Take Advantage of the Potential • Print-oriented business and sales model ineffective in digital marketplace • Potential of digital formats not fully exploited in content creation
• Using adtech tools to understand value and ROI of content in discrete units (e.g., pages, stories, clips) will become a critical survival skill
• Understanding and delivering highest value audiences to advertisers within the framework of an editorial “voice” will be hallmark of top publishers
• Glut of content will begin to become rationalized, discrete and fluid – true high value content will be quantified and increase in value as a rare commodity
• Low value content will go wanting for revenues
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More Analytics = Better Performance?
Big Data, Social Media, Mobile Use – All Are Driving Bigger and Richer Data Sets
Tools and Capabilities Built Upon These Data Sets Are Getting More Sophisticated • Quality of data is becoming paramount • Data management is becoming paramount – not just plumbing • Cross channel and cross format analysis raises the bar further
The Implication of More Advanced Analytics is the Attendant Complexity They Bring • How this plays out is still undetermined • This could create limits to growth - do tools built on these analytics need to become more programmatic to be more “accessible”? • Do advertisers need to change the way (and personnel) they use to maximize digital marketing and advertising opportunity?
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Importance Of Attribution And Transparency
Attribution and Inventory Transparency Will Be Very Hot Topics for 2013
Attribution and Viewability are Big Issues for Advertisers • As much as 3/4ths of inventory may not be viewable • Even in search “last click” is quickly becoming seen as
inadequate for properly determining advertising effectiveness
• Attribution issues become even more complex as brand is integrated with search and DR
Lack of Transparency in the Digital Exchange/RTB Environment is an Issue • Inability of publishers and advertisers to discern between
content means artificially low prices for quality content and artificially high prices for content of little or no value
• Pressure on exchanges to provide more transparency will pressure the arbitrage opportunity between ad buyers and sellers
Image Source: GanneL
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RTB Is Growing Rapidly – Is This Good Or Bad?
Advertisers, Publishers and IA Companies Will Not be Able to Ignore Impact of RTB. • RTB Continues to Grow in Importance to the Overall Display Market – Projected to be Nearly 1/3rd of Display Advertising by 2016
Note: includes all display formats served to all devices Source: eMarketer, Nov 2012
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RTB: Our View And Outlook For Future
Easy Answer: Good for Advertisers, Bad for Publishers
Real Answer – WAY More Complex
RTB is Riding High • Fast Growth • Solid Margins
• More Inventory Moving into RTB Markets
RTB Risks • Increased Competition Driving Potential Margin Compression • Emergence of Private Exchanges to Siphon Off Easy to Mark-Up Quality Content
• Increased Scrutiny of RTB Inventory by Advertisers
Expect the RTB Market Begin to Change in Next 18-24 Months
RTB is on a Roll – How Long Until All The Easy Money is Made? • A Tougher Market Will Separate Winners and Also-Rans
We Think Winners Will Need Good Analytics AND Scale • Presages Potential Market Consolidation • Scale = Information… Information = Competitive Advantage in a Fast Moving Market
Days of RTB Players Serving Both Publishers and Buyers Are Limited • Inherent Conflict of Interest is Not Sustainable – Advocates of Both Sides of the Transaction Will Emerge to Balance Market
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What About The Long Tail?
Much of Power Offered by Internet Advertising Solutions is Utilized Primarily by Large Companies with Resources • Scalable solutions that provide “actionable” solutions for small business – even mid-sized business are few at this point
• In some cases, e.g., Paid search, things have gotten even more difficult as the “easy solutions” for small business have become more complex with competition for digital real estate
Many Players Have Either Pivoted Away from the Long Tail or Have “Future Plans” for a More Self-Serve, Scalable Solution • Companies that we have spoken to have realized large companies are where the customers currently can be found • This implies that the long tail is looking more 2014 than 2013
Local May Be the Exception - Ideally Suited to Many Small Business
Challenge Will Be Scalable Way to Sell Into This Group • SMB solutions require low-touch on-line sales, easy install and “mass customization” to be effective
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Mobile - Convergence And Divergence
Will 2013 Be The Year for a Mobile Advertising “Breakout”? – Probably Not
No Doubt that Mobile Is Becoming a Bigger Part of Overall Digital Advertising Market • Eyeballs continue to move to mobile formats – both web and app –
dollars should follow • Still there are significant challenges in finding effective mobile formats due
to screen limitations and different user behavior than web • Role and function of mobile advertising in coordinated campaigns
Mobile Continues to Be a Unique Technology Requiring Unique Skillsets • Traditional mobile/carrier expertise continues to be a valuable commodity
– particularly as the smartphone/web universe converges with the cellphone/SMS universe
The Concept of “Mobile” Continues to Evolve - Diverge • Separation and segmentation between smartphone and tablet – some
solutions work for one but not other • Voice and text are becoming adjuncts • Role of local and location-based services important
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Will Brands Ever Go Digital?
Conventional Wisdom is that Brand Dollars are Sitting on the Digital Side-Line – When Will They Get in the Game?
In the U.S. only an estimated $5-7 Billion Dollars are Spent on Digital Brand Advertising v. $100 Billion off-line
Brand is Less Than ¼ of the Overall Digital Advertising Spend • Dollars are not yet following eyeballs
• Brand dollars are looking for somewhere to go • Just look ad rates and TV viewership - crashing but cpms exploding
2013 Will Still Be Early in Moving Brand Dollars to Digital – But There is Promise • Mobile and video are more “brand friendly”
• Brand advertisers are beginning to be more creative with digital to make it work for brand – it’s a more complex opportunity – shedding the TV/print media mindset will take time.
There are Still Challenges Though • Attribution and ROI models for brand are nascent • Scalability, reach and quality of digital inventory are all legitimate concerns
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Why Brand Dollars Will Eventually Move To Digital
(1)
Television Viewership Is Down But CPMs Continue To Climb • This represents the opportunity for brand dollars to follow eye-balls on-line
• It also represents the challenge that digital advertising companies face in attracting brand dollars • Conversations with advertisers and internet advertising companies point to us reaching a tipping point in the 2013-2014 time frame
INTERNET ADVERTISING M&A TRENDS FOR 2013"
Section 5
Page 37
Internet Advertising M&A Volume Remains Steady
Source: 451 Group * 4Q 2012: through 12/6/2012 Number of deals includes deals with undisclosed transac3on values
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VC Investment in IA Firms Declining Rapidly
Source: Capital IQ, PitchBook * 4Q 2012: through 12/6/2012 Number of deals includes deals with undisclosed transac3on values
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The IA Landscape, Investment And Consolidation
Looking Toward 2013
Overall – Sector Has Been Well/Overfunded with Many at Lofty/Unsustainable Valuations • Too many “me too” plays
• Significant valuation gap in market overhangs M&A activity • Lots of powder means many players will wait to exit
• Sellers (and their investors) see themselves as “must have” and too often seek to “swing for fences”
On the Buyer Side – Some Issues with Size of Potential Acquisitions • Traditional players looking for accretive acquisitions require scale that is
not available in most cases • Buyers see most technologies in IA currently as too small or “nice to
have” with little motivation to act due out of competitive pressure
Expect Investors to Be More Conservative in 2013
Analytics, Management and Decision
Tools
Exchanges and
Transaction Management
Exchanges and
Transaction Management
Analytics, Management and Decision
Tools
Neutral Data and Tools
Buyside -‐ Adver9sers Sellside – Content Publishers
Page 40
Neutral Data and Tools
Exchanges and
Transaction Management
Analytics, Management and Decision
Tools
Buyside -‐ Adver9sers
More Investment
Analytics, Management and Decision
Tools
Exchanges and
Transaction Management
Sellside – Content Publishers
Where Do We Expect Continued Investment?
Expect Publisher Side to Be More Active in Investments
While The Overall Trend Has Been Over Investment – Publisher-Side Still Lags • Opportunities to develop and grow players in response to more developed buy-side • Opportunities in both tools/analytics and transaction management portions of market
Expect More New Investments and Earlier Stage Investments
Page 41
Analytics, Management and Decision
Tools
Exchanges and
Transaction Management
Analytics, Management and Decision
Tools
Buyside -‐ Adver9sers Sellside – Content Publishers
Neutral Data and Tools
Exchanges and
Transaction Management
Early Consolida>on
Where Will Consolidation Come First?
Where We See/Believe There is a Need for Consolidation
Buy-Side Exchanges, RTB, Transaction Management Plays • More established than sell-side, e.g., private exchanges • Ultimately scale game – 2-3 big winners + niche verticals
Neutral Data Plays • Scale and breadth of data key
• Some room for niche verticals around highly specialized data – e.g., HIPPA compliant medical, etc.
Mark R. Langner"Managing Director – Industry Analysis""""Office: (415) 464-6322"Cell: (415) 994-0557"[email protected]"
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Experience
Our bankers have deep personal experience completing transactions for companies in the technology, media and telecom space, including:
*Some transac3ons completed by Headwaters team members on prior pla\orms
Disclosure: This newsleLer is a periodic compila3on of certain economic and corporate informa3on, as well as completed and announced merger and acquisi3on ac3vity. Informa3on contained in this newsleLer should not be construed as a recommenda3on to sell or buy any security. Any reference to or omission of any reference to any company in this newsleLer should not be construed as a recommenda3on to buy, sell or take any other ac3on with respect to any security of any such company. We are not solici3ng any ac3on with respect to any security or company based on this newsleLer. The newsleLer is published solely for the general informa3on of clients and friends of Headwaters MB, LLC. It does not take into account the par3cular investment objec3ves, financial situa3on, or needs of individual recipients. Certain transac3ons, including those involving early stage companies, give rise to substan3al risk and are not suitable for all investors. This newsleLer is based upon informa3on that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Predic3on of future events is inherently subject to both known and unknown risks, and other factors that may cause actual results to vary materially. We are under no obliga3on to update the informa3on contained in this newsleLer. Opinions expressed are our present opinions only and are subject to change without no3ce. Addi3onal informa3on is available upon request. The companies men3oned in this newsleLer may be clients of Headwaters MB, LLC. The decisions to include any company in this newsleLer is unrelated in all respects to any service that Headwaters MB, LLC may provide to such company. This newsleLer may not be copied or reproduced in any form, or redistributed without the prior wriLen consent of Headwaters MB, LLC. The informa3on contained herein should not be construed as legal advice.
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About Headwaters MB
Headwaters MB is an independently owned, growth investment bank and advisory firm. Headwaters MB has transacted over $7 billion of middle market deals and has over $225 billion of deal experience from its 65 full-time senior professionals. Headwaters has a national office footprint in the United States, headquartered in Denver, with additional offices in Boston, Chicago, New York, San Francisco & Washington D.C.
Headwaters MB has a significant international track record, providing our clients with a global reach. Our team has generated significant revenue from cross-border transactions, has local advisory partners covering 27 countries and the firm has won “Cross Border Deal of the Year” awards twice.
The firm has an established reputation as quality service provider and trusted long-term advisor to clients with a history of process and transaction excellence.
The Headwaters TMT Team
Gary Moon John Batdorf Sun Jen Yung Head of TMT Banking Managing Director Managing Director 415-766-3862 (office) (415) 926-7454 (office) 203-992-1667 (office) 650-515-8734 (mobile) (415) 847-8805 (mobile) 917-297-8716 (mobile) [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Mark R. Langner Managing Director 415-464-6322 (office) 415-994-0557 (mobile) [email protected]