heads up h urricane e vacuation a nalysis and d ecision s upport u tility p rogram

HEADS UP Hurricane Evacuation Analysis and Decision Support Utility Program

HEADS UP Home Page

HEADS UPNext generation version of the

Emergency Transportation Information System (ETIS) ProgramDynamic Hourly Travel Demand

ForecastingIntegrated Traffic Counter Data

Ingestion and Analysis Hourly Traffic Queue Length EstimationHost Shelter Demand EstimationEvacuation Shutdown Calculation

HEADS UPDynamic Hourly Travel Demand

Forecasting Simulates a gradual loading of evacuation

road network based on behavioral surveys Calculates dynamic clearance times

based on specific storm scenario Provides dynamic hourly critical link data

based on specific storm scenario For entire state For entire roadway length (I 75, US 231, SR 60)

Cumulative hourly evacuating vehicle and population data (in and out-of county) for all risk counties

HEADS UP Data Input

HEADS UP County Report

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ETIS Loading Curve

HEADS UP Loading Curves

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HEADS UP – 6 hours

HEADS UP – 12 Hours

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HEADS UPDynamic Hourly Travel Demand

Forecasting Max commute time per link or destination Reverse lane impact determination Link construction designation capability Sensitivity analysis for phased

evacuations Evaluation of clearance time impacts of

road closures and detours Re-routing analysis

HEADS UP

• Integrated Traffic Counter Data Ingestion and Analysis Automatically ingest real time traffic counter data

for DOT website Traffic Volume Hourly Average Speed Hourly Historical Hourly Average Volumes

Dynamic compare and contrast analysis between demand forecast and counter data

Capability key to queue length calculation and evacuation shutdown functions

DOT Traffic Counter Website

DOT Traffic Counter Data

Counter Data Comparison

HEADS UPHourly Traffic Queue Length Estimation

Determine length of traffic queue for each critical link

Graphic depiction of queue length on program map

Host Shelter Demand Estimation Host shelter determination for every county

in the state Predict number of vehicles and people

entering host county by roadway Calculation of time to first arrival of

evacuation vehicles and peak vehicle volume based on traffic counter data

HEADS UPEvacuation Shutdown Calculation

Based on hourly average speed data from real-time traffic counters

Determine which interchange and upstream roadway traffic should be diverted to avoid adding to queue

Icon on map that shows average speed thresholds at each counter location providing indication of possible queue

Map based data input and model resultsCoupled with remote statewide meso-scale

weather monitoring system (FAWN, DOT and other future met stations)

HEADS UP Data Map

HEADS UP - Operational Uses

Scenario building to test various evacuation strategies and assumptions Non Event:

For scenario development during training events and exercises;

Testing various strategies and options in developing regional plans; and

General contingency planning.

HEADS UP - Operational Uses Scenario building to test various

evacuation strategies and assumptionsDuring actual events:

Investigate options for deploying law enforcement and traffic management resources;

Assess impact of reverse lane options;Study clearance time and operational

benefits of phased evacuations; andAnalyze effects of evacuation

assumptions (e.g., shadow evacuations, in-county sheltering, etc.); and

Anticipate exigent circumstances.

HEADS UP - Operational Uses Real-time monitoring of evacuation

progress and shelter demandAutomatic TTMS ingestion capability

allows user to:Monitor average volume and speeds on

critical and strategic links;Relate observed values against predicted

volumes to assess progress and effectiveness of overall evacuation and traffic management efforts;

Calculate realistic estimates of potential shelter demand and arrival timing of evacuees for host counties;

HEADS UP - Operational Uses Real-time monitoring of evacuation

progress and shelter demandAutomatic TTMS ingestion capability

allows user to:Realize more rapidly accidents and other

circumstances that cause or worsen congestion; and

Obtain better appraisals of actual participation rates and assess the effectiveness of public information efforts.

HEADS UP - Operational Uses Implementation of Evacuation Measures

and Sustaining OperationsEmergency Management

Regional and multi-regional clearance times

Evacuation decision making and coordination

Designation and preparation of host shelter counties

Evacuation shutdown decision making and coordination


and Sustaining OperationsTraffic Operations

More effective deployment of law enforcement resources

Pre-stage personnel and materiel to predicted critical links throughout the entire evacuation event

Use time-based, most congested link data to develop rerouting schemes to divert traffic away from expected congested segments



More effective deployment of law enforcement resources

Determine duration of deployment and possible shifts needed

Designate operational sectors and responsibilities for entire state

Anticipate routine and other reporting requirements between field and Emergency Operations Centers



Implementation of traffic management measures tailored to situation

Pre-stage and continue deployment of highway incident management teams based on service to volume ratios and TTMS data

Deploy ITS resources (i.e., VMS, AM-radios, HAR) for most effective coverage based on service to volume ratios

Analyze options and coordinate operations for reverse–laning and re-routing



Evacuation Shutdown Determine lead times needed to close

interchanges and clear congested roadways based on TTMS average speed data and queue length function

Identify interchanges and alternate routes to clear roadway and reduce queues using queue length determination and evacuation shutdown functions


and Sustaining OperationsShelter Operations

Improving capabilities in host shelter counties

Designate likely host shelter counties based on predicted traffic volumes for roadways and potential bottlenecks

Determine lead time for host counties to prepare for sheltering mission

Develop a more efficient shelter opening scheme based on predicted numbers of evacuees and entering routes

HEADS UP - Operational Uses Implementation of Evacuation

Measures and Sustaining OperationsShelter Operations

Opening refuges of last resort Determine in which counties and along what

roadways refuges may have to be opened based on queue length function.

In conjunction with HURREVAC, determine lead time for counties to prepare refuges.

Using travel demand forecast module, determine potential refuge demand along congested roadways.


Measures and Sustaining OperationsPublic Information

Pre-Departure Advisories Using broadcast media and 511 (“Know

before you go”) inform evacuees of potential congested areas and suggest alternate routes.

Provide information to potential evacuees of worst household commute times and queue lengths depending on routes selected and evacuation start times.



Pre-Departure Advisories Forewarn potential motorists of what to

expect once evacuation trip has begun based on real time data from TTMS, travel demand, queue length and worst household commute time data.

Using evacuation shutdown lead times, prepare advisories encouraging in-county evacuation and avoidance of occluded roadways.



Event Specific Advisories to Motorists Requires ITS and other methods of

communicating with evacuees already on roadway (i.e., HAR, VMS, portable radio transmitters, radio)

Forewarn potential evacuees of what to expect at traffic bottlenecks and congested areas based on TTMS and travel demand forecasting model.



Event Specific Advisories to Motorists Recommend local sheltering options and

alternate routes to motorists along congested roadways and in traffic queues.

Provide times to reach likely destination locations based on TTMS data and travel demand forecast model.

Advise motorist to clear roadways and seek refuges once evacuation shutdown lead times are realized.

HEADS UP - In SummaryThe capability to manage evacuations,

not just initiate them Allows analysis of the impacts of alternate

courses of action and decision making. More realistic estimates of regional

evacuation times and impacts. Allows real time monitoring and analysis

of evacuation situation Permits better planning for exigent

situations on evacuation roadways

HEADS UP - In SummaryThe capability to manage evacuations,

not just initiate them Better prepare host shelter jurisdictions of

potential operational needs. Implications for Public Information

(511and “Know before you Go”) Emergency Public Information (along roadways).

Possible application for other emergencies that precipitate evacuations and diversions including Nuclear Power, Terrorism, Hazmat incidents

Summary Operations AND information management Proactive rather than reactive Disasters = Movement Management Includes data collection and analysis tools Contingent on acquiring data, analyzing and interpreting it and then acting on it

heads up h urricane e vacuation a nalysis and d ecision s upport u tility p rogram

Documents

analysis slide

fawn slide

data map slide

data input slide

dot traffic counter

counter data comparison

home page slide

etis loading curve slide