Hazus Earthquake Seismic Risk Assessment for Cairo, EgyptESRI International Users Conference, San Diego

July 23, 2015

Jesse RozelleFEMA Region VIII GIS Coordinator

FEMA MOTF (Modeling Task Force) SMEJesse.rozelle@fema.dhs.gov

Outline• Hazus

• Background• International Methodology

• Cairo Risk Assessment Study• Hazard• Inventory• Vulnerability

• Results-Demo• 1992 Earthquake Calibration• Cairo Probabilistic Losses• Alternative Futures Scenarios

Hazus Risk Assessment Tool• Earthquake, flood and

hurricane wind modules• Developed in conjunction

with the National Institute of Building Sciences

• Runs on ESRI ArcGIS 10 platform-free 60 day evaluations www.esri.com

• Largest extension of ArcGIS• Over 200 data layers – all open source

Hazus\GIS• Results identify specific and

general vulnerabilities• Visually displays impacts

to key decision makers and the public

• Calculates scientifically-defensible damages, economic losses, and mitigation benefits

• Facilitates a risk-based approach to prioritize mitigation strategies that maximizes the return on investment

Hazus MH – Features

Earthquake Flood Hurricane

Hazus is Multidisciplinary

• Subject Matter Experts/User Groups• GIS experience• Engineering expertise• Hazard information (seismologist, geologist,

meteorologists) • Social scientist (housing)• Emergency management community• Decision/policy makers

Brief History• Project started back in 1992• Replace “black box”• Provide national capabilities• Earthquake model functional

since 1997• 1,000’s of HAZUS users

• Local, State, & Federal Agencies• Private Sector• Universities

HAZUS

QuakeQuake WindWind FloodFlood SurgeSurge HAZMATHAZMAT

Built EnvironmentBuilt Environment

Hazard IdentificationHazard Identification

Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability Assessment

Social ImpactSocial Impact

Economic ImpactEconomic Impact

Business InterruptionBusiness Interruption

3rd3rd--partypartyModelsModels

HAZUS

QuakeQuake WindWind FloodFlood SurgeSurge HAZMATHAZMAT

Built EnvironmentBuilt Environment

Hazard IdentificationHazard Identification

Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability Assessment

Social ImpactSocial Impact

Economic ImpactEconomic Impact

Business InterruptionBusiness Interruption

3rd--partyModels

• Demographics – Population, Employment, Housing

• Building Stock – Residential, Commercial, Industrial

• Essential Facilities – Hospitals, Schools, Police Stations, Fire Stations

• Transportation – Highways, Bridges, Railways, Tunnels, Airports, Ports and Harbors, Ferry Facilities

• Utilities – Waste Water, Potable Water, Oil, Gas, Electric Power, Communication Facilities

• High Potential Loss Facilities – Dams and Levees, Nuclear Facilities, Hazardous Material Sites, Military Installations

Nationwide Databases

HAZUS Software-Hardware

HAZUS Applications

International Applications: GIS based method for exporting the Hazus

Earthquake Model for Global Applications

Concept

• Utilize Hazus earthquake model outside the U.S. • Start with a Proxy Building Stock and replace

with local information.• Focus limited resources towards developing

inventories, engineering parameters and hazard data rather than new software.

• Prevents duplication of effort

Developing International Building Inventories

• EERI’s World Housing Encyclopedia http://www.world-housing.net/

• Hazus Advanced Engineering Building Module (AEBM), included with program

• Hazus New Building Type Wizard, included with program

• Hazus Comprehensive Data Management System (CDMS), lap top based data collection interface

• ROVER (Rapid Observation of Vulnerability and Estimation of Risk) data collection tool

Integration of Data Sources• LANDSCAN 2012 Global Population

Database for Egypt• 1 km grids (10 km and 100 km where pop

<1,000)• Oak Ridge National Labs

http://www.ornl.gov/landscan/• Demographics: Age and Male/Female provided

by City of Cairo

Egypt Study Region

Part 1 of 3: Inventory•In general, earthquake results are sensitive to four categories of inventory parameters (among others)

• Location (longitude & latitude, whether site-specific or census-tract (grid) based)

• Classification with respect to earthquake vulnerability (facility type, capacity, building type & other construction characteristics) that affect seismic performance

• Valuation (cost of repair and replacement, business parameters)

• Societal (number of occupants)

NRIAG Inventory: City of Cairo Parcel DataIncludes:

• Construction Type• Condition• Number of Stories• Year Built

Limitations: • Building Area Estimated from Lot Area and Zoning

Density• Building Value Estimated from Default Replacement• Building Counts = Parcel Counts (1 per Parcel)

NRIAG-City of Cairo Parcel Data

City of Cairo –Inventory Summary

City of Cairo

Occupancy Parcel Count Replacement Value (USD) Content Value (USD)

BldgArea (meters)

AGR1 111 224,911,029$ 224,911,029$ 644,112 COM1 137 145,406,213$ 145,406,213$ 404,378 COM2 222 285,882,495$ 285,882,495$ 818,726 COM3 310 590,584,532$ 590,584,532$ 1,392,729 COM4 450 1,494,492,916$ 1,494,492,916$ 2,599,415 COM5 106 1,562,137,759$ 1,562,137,759$ 1,875,008 COM6 227 1,891,639,392$ 2,837,459,088$ 1,717,674 COM7 121 375,793,373$ 563,690,060$ 474,667 COM8 224 1,469,589,019$ 1,469,589,019$ 2,119,895 COM9 46 137,182,157$ 137,182,157$ 248,917 EDU1 1,446 6,368,935,108$ 6,368,935,108$ 11,164,317 EDU2 32 269,929,156$ 404,893,733$ 503,884 GOV1 367 1,127,769,037$ 1,127,769,037$ 2,830,936 GOV2 150 1,337,088,040$ 2,005,632,060$ 1,743,133 IND1 301 1,651,734,647$ 2,477,601,970$ 3,861,691 IND2 28 55,528,269$ 83,292,404$ 159,025 IND3 175 4,924,440,761$ 7,386,661,142$ 10,021,067 IND4 671 11,494,807,301$ 17,242,210,951$ 16,946,973 IND5 18 563,401,486$ 845,102,229$ 1,056,578 REL1 2,070 4,288,593,701$ 4,288,593,701$ 7,420,606 RES1 276 13,822,336$ 6,911,168$ 100,382 RES3A 94 21,331,943$ 10,665,971$ 57,190 RES3B 735 246,808,548$ 123,404,274$ 752,649 RES3C 1,678 1,975,665,298$ 987,832,649$ 3,355,153 RES3D 16,780 31,976,259,938$ 15,988,129,969$ 57,739,123 RES3E 15,051 63,722,532,475$ 31,861,266,237$ 105,226,069 RES3F 3,034 30,150,697,609$ 15,075,348,805$ 52,867,357 RES4 213 998,765,660$ 499,382,830$ 1,909,473

TOTAL 45,073 169,365,730,197$ 116,094,969,506$ 290,011,128

Height SummaryLow Rise (1-3 floors) 19,914 Med Rise (4-7 floors) 18,349 High Rise (8+ floors) 6,810

45,073

LandScan (2012) City of Cairo

7,877,202

LandScan (2012) Asyut 5,007,368 LandScan (2012) Greater Egypt

70,499,858

LandScan (2012) Egypt 83,384,428

Part 2 of 3: Vulnerability• Model earthquake building types for Cairo from

“Construction Type”• Seismic Code adoption history compared to year

built, construction type and condition

• Limitations:• Assumes enforcement• Condition not the same as material quality

Seismic Code History in Egypt• 1989-first code to consider seismic loading, crude

percentage• 1993-after 1992 event, offered more building specific

design levels• 2004-enhancements, follows UBC 1997 framework• Egyptian code practice (ECP-201) • ECP (1993) ECP (2008)

• Pre-Code < 1993 (no code)• Low Code 1993-2004 (UBC, Zone 1-2)• Moderate Code >2004 (UBC, Zone 3), Quality 1

only

Concrete C3 -L,M,H

•Concrete Frame with Unreinforced Masonry Infill Walls

• Non-ductile concrete frame carries vertical load

• Unreinforced masonry infill walls provide lateral shear strength

• C3L,M,H Pre-Code used extensively in Egypt

City of Cairo - Building Type Mapping

Bldg_Type Design Count Replacement Value (USD) Content Value (USD)

Bldg Area (sqmeters)

C1H LC 1,282 8,668,856,757$ 5,998,067,407$ 14,604,349 C1H MC 21 921,829,551$ 1,247,405,285$ 1,423,818 C1L LC 2,172 4,868,350,870$ 2,678,764,880$ 8,753,872 C1L MC 1,065 5,499,160,597$ 6,855,587,029$ 11,913,205 C1M LC 4,997 19,857,842,834$ 10,685,137,597$ 33,462,673 C1M MC 42 1,146,134,708$ 1,357,204,013$ 1,951,012

9,579 40,962,175,316$ 28,822,166,211$ 72,108,928 C3H PC 5,507 37,039,405,295$ 22,928,332,203$ 62,397,588 C3L PC 9,245 22,473,973,067$ 15,718,728,719$ 39,236,676 C3M PC 13,129 50,928,540,287$ 32,116,925,416$ 85,405,174

27,881 110,441,918,649$ 70,763,986,339$ 187,039,438 URML PC 7,200 16,644,586,614$ 15,671,556,589$ 28,688,383 URMM PC 413 1,317,049,616$ 837,260,368$ 2,174,379

7,613 17,961,636,231$ 16,508,816,956$ 30,862,762 45,073 169,365,730,197$ 116,094,969,506$ 290,011,128 TOTAL

CITY OF CAIRO - SEISMIC BUILDING TYPE AND DESIGN LEVEL SUMMARY

Unreinforced Masonry

Sub Total

Concrete Moment Frame

Concrete Frame wURM Infill

Sub Total

Sub Total

Part 3 of 3: Hazard Data

NRIAG• Probabilistic Hazard

Mapping• Soils Amplification• Epicenters• FaultsUSGS• 1992 Cairo EQ

ShakeMap

1992 M5.8 Event CalibrationM. Degg (1993) Paper• Daytime event• 550+ fatalities• 10,000 injured• 1,087 schools closed• 300 bldgs total or partial collapse• 6,500 bldgs severe damage• 40,000 homeless• Severe damage at Barnasht and

Gerza• Heliopolis 14 story apartment collapse• 100 severe school injuries

USGS ShakeMap Atlas/PAGER

http://comcat.cr.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/centennial19921012130957#summary

Earthquake Scenarios

City of Cairo Preliminary Results-Casualties

City of Cairo Preliminary Results-Damage by Construction Type

City of Cairo Preliminary Results-Economic Losses

Casualty Parameter Modifications-Collapse Rates for Completely Damaged Structures

• Collapse rates for complete damage state—drives much of the fatalities and severe injuries.

• U.S. collapse rates are between 3 and 15% for completely damaged structures.

Site Specific Level of Loss Estimation Detail Now Available for Cairo

Alternative Futures-Mitigation

Concrete Shear Walls Concrete Frame with URM Infill

HAZUS MH: Ankara Introduction and ApplicationsJune 21st , 2010

Questions?

Jesse.rozelle@fema.dhs.gov