harnessing the future: getting our act togetherheavier-than-air flying machines are impossible....
TRANSCRIPT
Dr. Roz Rosen 1“If you do not plan for the future, you cannot have one.”
Harnessing the Future: Getting Our Act Together
ADARA ConferenceApril 2009, San Antonio Texas
Dr. Roz Rosen, Director CSUN [email protected]
Dr. Roz Rosen 2
Overview
The Future Ain’t What It Used to Be
Trends and Themes
Today’s Consumers: Rights and Expectations
Challenges, Choices and Changes
3
Kinds of FuturesPossibleProbablePreferred
“The most reliable way to anticipate the future is by understanding the present.” --John Naisbitt (1980)
“The Past is Prologue”
Some Failed Technology Predictions 1. “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be
seriously considered as a means of communication. It’s of no value to us.” — A memo at Western Union, 1878 (or 1876).
2. “When the Paris Exhibition *of 1878+ closes, electric light will close with it and no more will be heard of it.” - Oxford professor Erasmus Wilson
3. “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” — Lord Kelvin, British mathematician and physicist, president of the British Royal Society, 1895.
4. “The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty - a fad.” — The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer, Horace Rackham, not to invest in the Ford Motor Co., 1903
Failed Technology Predictions 5. “The cinema is a fad, just a canned drama. Audiences
prefer flesh and blood on the stage.” -– Charlie Chaplin, actor, producer, director, and studio founder, 1916
6. “*Television+ won’t last more than the first six months. People will not stare at a plywood box every night.” —Darryl Zanuck, movie producer, 20th Century Fox, 1946.
7. “Why would anyone would want a computer in their home?” — Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp (DEC), maker of big business mainframe computers, opposing the PC in 1977.
8. And the granddaddy of them all – “Everything that could be invented has been invented.” Patents Office Director, 1900’s.
AND -- Who DID NOT move to the next level…?!
Future Technology Predictions Artificial intelligence
Biotechnology: growing organs, manipulating DNA
Designer babies or bodies
Mind/emotion control
Age reversal/eternal life
Instant info, virtual info
Wireless everything
All in one device
Holographic messages
Colonizing space
Cashless, paperless
Phone implant
Computers + brains
Nano-scale computers
Global network
Robots everywhere –cleaning, health care, working, even partners
Instant language translators
Download your brain
Encode yourself and live in a computer (matrix)
Self-driving or flying cars
www.futureforall.org/whatspossible
Predictions re our Field?What did they think then? Today’s realities? IDEA and Schools for the Deaf
Gallaudet and NTID
Communications: Interpreters and Technology
ADA and Public Services & Employment
Government support ($, Policy, Leadership)
ASL, Culture and Community
POSSIBLE PREDICTIONS –
WHAT WILL THE ABOVE BE LIKE IN 2020?
Mega Trends & ThemesIndustrial Information Economy
Products People Services
Pathological Paternalism Partnership
Providers Consumers
Activities Outcomes, Accountability
Competition Collaboration
Hi Technology Hi Tech - Hi Touch
Tech-Enabled Communication Access
Real Time Captioning (CART, TypeWell…) Remote Conference Captioning (RCC) Communication Devices Handheld devices Computer supported discussions Assistive Listening Devices (ALDs) & CAPTEL
Video Remote Interpreting (VRI) VP & VRS -- Portable VP, Netbook, Laptop, Desktop Video Conferencing, Web Conf, e/pop Smart Board Network System/Think Tank On-line Education
Relay Conference Captioning
Technology-Supported Meetings
Video Remote Interpreting (VRI)
Computer-enabled discussions
e/pop Web Conferencing software:state-of-the art PowerPoint, document, application and desktop sharing, remote control, and multiparty audio and video conferencing. E/POP by Wiredred.com
Video Teleconferences
Online technology-supported assistance
ONLINE EDUCATION --
Example: PEPNet
iTransition Training
Career Interests and Education Choices: It’s My Plan!
First Year College Success: Be the One!
Essential Skills for College Living: It’s My Life!
eFolio: My Online Portfolio!
www.pepnet.org
Fed Dept of Occupational Employment Statistics projections (2000-2010):
“Knowledge in science and mathematics will be needed for 80% of the fastest growing jobs.
A new definition of literacy is required for understanding documents and quantitative material.”
Multiple Functional Literacies and Intelligences: Language Numeracy and Science Cultural Technological Relationships Financial Literacy (Fed Reserve Chair Bernanke)
CSUN Student Competencies (wrap-around curriculum
focusing on student development)
The American worker’s average annual salary usually corresponds to education level:
(U.S. Department of Commerce)
High school dropout: $19,000
High school graduate with
no postsecondary education: $26,200
Associate’s Degree: $33,400
Bachelor’s Degree: $42,200
Master’s Degree: $52,300
Doctoral Degree: $70,700
Professional Degree: $81,500
Only one out of three young people graduate from school with an academic diploma.*(Watson & Schrodel, 1991, 2003)
Nationally, 30% of deaf and hard of hearing high students are academically eligible to go to college. Of these who go to college, 70% do not graduate.* (Bowe, 2003)
The vast majority (94%) of about 1.1 million K-12 students with hearing loss do not receive appropriate educational support services.
*(Montonya, 2007)
Facts About Deaf and Hard of Hearing Students
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Modifying Individual vs Modifying Environment
Desire to modify a disabled individual to meet expectations of society
But the United Nations Standard Rules (1993) emphasize need for accessible society and environmental systems
UN approved the International Conv on Human Rights for Persons with Disabilities (2006). (sign language emphases)
Diversity & Globalism: Shift from majority culture to mosiac culture
Maureen Klusza of Moeart.com, August 2007
What now?
The Processional Caterpillars
Challenges, Choices and Changes:Break out of the box.
Challenges for Harnessing the Future Clarify your/shared mission, vision and values; use
as guides for planning and decision making.
Create preferred futures & “what-if” scenarios.
Keep an open mind, listen, and learn from outsiders.
Create synergy via think-tanks, analyses of trends, current events, data & needs, and collaborations.
Expect the unexpected.
Value your associates and consumers.
Maintain balance in your life.
(adapted from van der Werff)
REFERENCESAburdene, P. (2005) Megatrends 2010: The rise of conscious capitalism. Charlottesville, VA: Hampton Roads Pub. Co
Bowe, F. (2003) Transition for deaf and hard of hearing students: a blueprint for change. Retrieved April 1, 2009. http://jdsde.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/reprint/8/4/485
Gladwell, M. (2000) The tipping point: How little things can make a big difference. Boston: Little, Brown.
Postsecondary Education Program Network (PEPNet) (2009) iTransition. Online at http://www.pepnet.org
Seider, S. (2009) An Educator's Journey Toward Multiple Intelligences. Retrieved April 1, 2009, from http://www.edutopia.org/multiple-intelligences-theory-teacher
Schroedel, J.G., & Watson, D. (1991) Postsecondary education for students who are deaf: A summary of a national study. OSERS News in Print, 4 (1), 8-14.
Schroedel, J.G., Watson, D. & Ashmore, D. (2003) A national research agenda for the postsecondary education of deaf and hard of hearing students: A road map for the future. American Annals of the Deaf, 148.2, 67-73
Sisodia, R. (2007) Firms of endearment: How world-class companies profit from passion and purpose. Upper Saddle River: Wharton School Publishing.
United Nations. (2006) International Convention on Human Rights for Persons with Disabilities. Online at http://www.un.org/esa/socdev/enable
Van der Werff, T. (1998) Ten tips for harnessing the future. Global Future Report.
Retrieved April 1, 2009 from http://www.globalfuture.com/9410.htm
World Federation of the Deaf. (1987) Resolution on right to sign language in education. Online at http://www.wfdeaf.org
World Federation of the Deaf. (2001) Position paper on bilingual education for deaf persons. Online at http://www.wfdeaf.org
What’s possible: Future technology predictions. Retrieved April 1, 2009 from http://www.futureforall.org/whatspossible.htm
Top failed technology predictions. Retrieved April 1, 2009, from http://listverse.com/history/top-30-failed-technology-predictions