Harald Winkler, Randall Spalding-Fecher, Stanford Mwakasonda & Ogunlade Davidson

Energy & Development Research CentreUniversity of Cape Town

Sustainable development Sustainable development policies and measurespolicies and measures

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What is the SD-PAMs approach?What is the SD-PAMs approach?

• Sustainable development (SD) policies and measures Sustainable development (SD) policies and measures (PAMs)(PAMs)

• Backcast from desired future state of development, Backcast from desired future state of development, notnot GHG reductionGHG reduction goal goal or cap or cap define more sustainable paths to meet development define more sustainable paths to meet development

objectives objectives

• Climate change as ‘ancillary benefit’ ofClimate change as ‘ancillary benefit’ of achieving achieving SD SD Developing countries (DC) Developing countries (DC) focusedfocused onon basic basic

development needs; climate change not a priority development needs; climate change not a priority commit to commit to implementingimplementing SD SD policies in practice policies in practice

• Basis in Article 3.4 of the Convention – the right to Basis in Article 3.4 of the Convention – the right to sustainable developmentsustainable development

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

IPCC SRES B1 Scenarios

450550

B1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

IPCC SRES A1T Scenarios

A1T

450550

650

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

IPCC SRES B2 Scenarios

450550650

B2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

IPCC SRES A1FI Scenarios

4505506

750

A

B2B1

Emissions from development path matter at least Emissions from development path matter at least as much as mitigation policyas much as mitigation policy

A1T A1FI

Source: IPCC 2001 Third Assessment Report, WG3, p. 151

IPCC Emission Scenarios (grey) versus emissions path needed for stabilisation (red)

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Steps in applyingSteps in applying SD PAMs SD PAMs

1.1. Country outlines future development objectivesCountry outlines future development objectives backcasting from long term goals where possible backcasting from long term goals where possible

2.2. Identify PAMs to achieve development objectives more Identify PAMs to achieve development objectives more sustainably, for reasons sustainably, for reasons other than CCother than CC

a.a. Existing policy not fully implemented; orExisting policy not fully implemented; or

b.b. New policies and / or more stringent measuresNew policies and / or more stringent measures

3.3. Quantify the changes in GHG emissions from individual PAMsQuantify the changes in GHG emissions from individual PAMs

4.4. Identify PAMs with synergies or conflicts between SD benefits Identify PAMs with synergies or conflicts between SD benefits and GHG limitationsand GHG limitations

5.5. Summarise the net impact of a basket of SD-PAMs on Summarise the net impact of a basket of SD-PAMs on development and GHG emissionsdevelopment and GHG emissions

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Disadvantages of SD-PAMs approachDisadvantages of SD-PAMs approach

• Does not ensure a global reduction or cap on GHG Does not ensure a global reduction or cap on GHG emissionsemissions reduces emissions from BAU, not from 1990 levelsreduces emissions from BAU, not from 1990 levels

• Analytically hard to summarise net impacts of basket of Analytically hard to summarise net impacts of basket of PAMs on GHGsPAMs on GHGs See SA case study in the chapter in the bookSee SA case study in the chapter in the book

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Advantages of SD-PAMs approachAdvantages of SD-PAMs approach

• Starts from SD, which DC policymakers prioritiseStarts from SD, which DC policymakers prioritise Extend and implement existing domestic policiesExtend and implement existing domestic policies synergies are ‘win-win’ or ‘no-regrets’ policiessynergies are ‘win-win’ or ‘no-regrets’ policies Builds DC leadership by showing what DC Builds DC leadership by showing what DC are are doingdoing

• Takes account of national circumstancesTakes account of national circumstances builds in domestic energy resource endowment, builds in domestic energy resource endowment,

climateclimate,, levels of industrialisation levels of industrialisation and and motorisation,motorisation, incomeincome

developsdevelops capacitycapacity to mitigate to mitigate

• Create incentives for early DC actionCreate incentives for early DC action – differentiated – differentiated responsibility and actionresponsibility and action

• Helps build a climate of trust for potential future Helps build a climate of trust for potential future commitments commitments

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Institutional challenge: Formalising the approachInstitutional challenge: Formalising the approach

• Accountability in a pledge-based approachAccountability in a pledge-based approach How does this link to the UNFCCC / KP system?How does this link to the UNFCCC / KP system? Countries make Countries make pledgespledges to implement

SD-PAMs Commitments under UNFCCC Commitments under UNFCCC

Article 4.1 b and 4.1 f Article 4.1 b and 4.1 f Mandatory reporting under new Mandatory reporting under new

registry versus reporting in National registry versus reporting in National CommunicationsCommunications

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The funding cThe funding challenge: Who pays?hallenge: Who pays?

• For PAMs that reduce emissionsFor PAMs that reduce emissions Annex II already have commitment for incremental Annex II already have commitment for incremental

costs of implementing mitigation measures and full costs of implementing mitigation measures and full costs of formulation and reporting (Article 4.3)costs of formulation and reporting (Article 4.3)

For additional funds, access GEF, For additional funds, access GEF, CDM, new Convention and KP fundsCDM, new Convention and KP funds

Broader than CDM – need national, Broader than CDM – need national, sectoral baselines to assess impactsectoral baselines to assess impact

• For PAMs that do not reduce emissionsFor PAMs that do not reduce emissions Access Access ODA, Dev Banks, private capitalODA, Dev Banks, private capital

• Since it promotes development, may mobilise Since it promotes development, may mobilise ddomestic omestic funding more readily funding more readily

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What you won’t find in this presentation …What you won’t find in this presentation …

… … but can read in the chapter in the book!but can read in the chapter in the book!

• More detailed ideas about implementing SD-PAMsMore detailed ideas about implementing SD-PAMs Defining and formalising the commitmentDefining and formalising the commitment What might baselines for SD be?What might baselines for SD be? Timing and graduation issuesTiming and graduation issues How should SD-PAMs be How should SD-PAMs be reviewed and accounted for?reviewed and accounted for?

• Link between climate policies and SD policiesLink between climate policies and SD policies

• More on fundingMore on funding

• Case study: SD-PAMs applied to South African situationCase study: SD-PAMs applied to South African situation

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Concluding remarksConcluding remarks

• Climate change negotiations have to address the political Climate change negotiations have to address the political priorities of DCspriorities of DCs

• SD PAMs is an possible first step in DC participationSD PAMs is an possible first step in DC participation

• Can start now and continue in parallel to negotiations Can start now and continue in parallel to negotiations around second commitment periodaround second commitment period

www.edrc.uct.ac.za

Thank you for listening

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Which developing countries might find it attractive?Which developing countries might find it attractive?

• Least Developed Countries in particular?Least Developed Countries in particular?

• Rapidly industrialising countries Rapidly industrialising countries would not have surplus under top-down allocation schemeswould not have surplus under top-down allocation schemes

• AnalyticalAnalytical ggrouping by emissions intensity rouping by emissions intensity

(CO2 / GDP), ability to pay (GDP / pop), (CO2 / GDP), ability to pay (GDP / pop), Human Dev Index?Human Dev Index?

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Equity and Equity and future commitment regimesfuture commitment regimes

• One major question: How to set up a framework for global participation in One major question: How to set up a framework for global participation in the effort to combat climate change?the effort to combat climate change?

Top-down approaches: can guarantee an environmental outcomeTop-down approaches: can guarantee an environmental outcome Bottom-up approaches: politically more likely to bring DCs into the Bottom-up approaches: politically more likely to bring DCs into the

system system Could include this slide, leave out points on slide 7? And what Could include this slide, leave out points on slide 7? And what

about the graphic?about the graphic?

• Consider both Consider both responsibilityresponsibility of of countries, and their countries, and their capacitycapacity to meet to meet targetstargets

• SD-PAMs a bottom-upSD-PAMs a bottom-upapproach that builds approach that builds capacity in DCs capacity in DCs

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ImplementationImplementation challenges: conceptual challenges: conceptual

• What is the baseline for SD? Business-as-usual? What is the baseline for SD? Business-as-usual? Conventional development / dirty developmentConventional development / dirty development Current policy? Or implementation? Current policy? Or implementation? Multi-sectoral - how many baselines can you monitorMulti-sectoral - how many baselines can you monitor HHow to prevent ow to prevent gaminggaming

countries claiming existing policies as ‘new’ SD-PAMscountries claiming existing policies as ‘new’ SD-PAMs

• Link between SD-PAMs and climate mitigation policiesLink between SD-PAMs and climate mitigation policies end up dealing with energy services, transport, housingend up dealing with energy services, transport, housing difference in the motivation / starting difference in the motivation / starting

point - to achieve developmentpoint - to achieve developmentor to reduce GHGsor to reduce GHGs