hanson 2009
TRANSCRIPT
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ECONOMICS FACTORS CRITICAL to the PROFITABILITY of
SUPER-INTENSIVE BIOFLOC RECIRCULATING SHRIMP PRODUCTION
SYSTEMS for MARINE SHRIMP Litopenaeus vannamei
Terry HansonDepartment of Fisheries and Allied Aquacultures
Auburn University, Auburn, AL
World Aquaculture 2009 Vera Cruz, Mexico September 25-29, 2009
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Presentation
USMSFP bio-economic model as a research and development toolInvestment costsEconomic analysis of systemsCritical factors affecting profitabilityConclusions Opportunities for the future
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Acknowledgements
Benedict Posadas, MSUTzachi M. Samocha, Texas A&MAlvin D. Stokes, Waddel Mariculture CenterThomas Losordo, UNCCraig L. Browdy, Novus
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Investment Costs
Land– Greenhouse area– Waste treatment pond area– Office area– Land preparation cost
Greenhouse structure and componentsRaceway and components
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Greenhouse Components5,000 m2 raceway in GH
(2 nursery RW + 8 GO RW )
Greenhouse– Structure
– Covering
– Systems• Heat / cooling
• Electrical
• Shading
– Controls
– Freight and installation
Raceways with:– Heating system, drain
pipes, and catwalks
– Mechanical and lab building
– Air supply
Total Cost: Approx. $1 million per fully equipped GH
Equity to Bank Financing Ratio is crucial to project viability
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Economic Analysis of Super-intensive Recirculating Shrimp
Production Systems
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Limitations of Analysis
Future conditions are unknown– Assume price conditions– Assume loan conditions
Are back-to-back-to-back crops possible?– Depends on input availability, primarily PLs
• Assume availability is year-round
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Economic Analysis - I
Texas A&M Agri-Life Research Center
Dr. SamochaRecent Study
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Litopenaeus vannamei performance in a 94 d grow-out trial in greenhouse-enclosed RW’s stocked with juveniles (1.25 g) at a density of 530/m3 & operated with no water exchange
Average Treatment Data Used in the Economic Analysis
Treatment Wtf(g)
Growth(g/wk)
Yield*
(kg/m3)Yield**
(kg/m2)Sur.(%) FCR
Water Use(L/kg
Shrimp)
Settling-Ave 18.45 1.28 8.96 4.76 84.4 1.29 148.5
FF-Ave 17.35 1.26 8.25 4.52 80.3 1.35 149.5
* Based on RW water volume at harvest (37 m3)** Based on RW bottom area of 68.5 m2
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Enterprise Budget
Value/Cost, $/lb SettlingFoam
Fractionation
1. Gross Receipts $3.27 $3.27
2. Variable Costs $2.22 $2.49
3. Income Above Variable Cost $1.04 $0.77
4. Fixed Cost $0.35 $0.40 5. Total of All Specified Expenses $2.57 $2.90
6. Net Returns Above All Specified Expenses /1 $0.70 $0.37
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Economic Analysis - II
The Oceanic InstituteDr. Shaun Moss and Clete Otoshi
Recent Study
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Oceanic Institute - Litopenaeus vannamei performance in greenhouse-enclosed RW’s stocked at 301/m2 (Trial #1) and 401/m2 (Trials #2 and #3) and grown for 98, 88, and 94 days respectively with no water exchange
Treatment Wt(g)
Growth(g/wk)
Yield*
(kg/m3)Yield**
(kg/m2)Sur.(%) FCR Water Use
(L/kg Shrimp)
Trial # 1 21.0a 1.44 7.5 5.7 89.5 1.50 187
Trial # 2 18.5a 1.48 8.4 6.4 80.4 2.01 285
Trial # 3 17.4b 1.49 10.0 7.6 90.6 1.67 172
* Based on RW water volume at harvest (57 m3)** Based on RW bottom area of 75.0 m2
Number of crops per year for Trial #1 - 3.6; Trial #2 - 4.0; and Trial #3 - 3.8
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OI #3 - Enterprise Budget and Cash Flow SummaryValue/Cost
per lb1. Gross Receipts $3.27 2. Variable Costs $1.54 3. Income Above Variable Cost $1.73 4. Fixed Cost $0.66 5. Total of All Specified Expenses $2.20 6. Net Returns Above All Costs $1.07
Over a 10-year period and 10 GH: AveragePay back period yr 2.09Discount rate % 10.00Net present value $ million 16.11Internal Rate of Return % 39.43
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Economic Analysis - III
Critical Factors
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Change in NPV and IRR with 20% Improvement in Critical Production Factors
Grow-out Components Change
Change from BaseNPV $mil. IRR %
1. GO survival +20% 10.48 13.72. Shrimp price +20% 9.57 12.53. GO stocking density +20% 6.16 8.14. Initial investment -20% 2.24 6.85. GO growth rate +20% 2.23 6.46. Nursery & GO feed -20% 2.37 3.17. Source of financing 20/80-0/100 1.79 2.48. Nursery survival +20% 1.12 1.59. PL cost -20% 1.01 1.2
Compared to Base Scenario: $10.8 million and 25.3% IRR
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ConclusionsMany factors affect the COP and financial viability
Could be feasible under certain biological and economic conditions
Combination of small changes in many grow-out components can lead to profitability
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Opportunities for the FutureImproving technologies are:– Increasing growth and production rates– Reducing variable and fixed costs
Genetic selection– Higher yields over time
Financial analyses are focusing research– Improves competitiveness
Marketing opportunities
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Thank You Very Much!
Questions?