hanel, germany j. gathorpe-hardy what do you think these cartoons are saying?
TRANSCRIPT
Hanel, Germany
J. Gathorpe-Hardy
What do you think these cartoons are saying?
Population Change
Births
Immigrants
Deaths
Emigrants
TotalPopulation
Natural Increase
Migration
The total population of an area is the balance between 2 forces of change: natural increase and migration
Natural increase is the balance between birth rates and death rates
Inputs Outputs
World Population Changes
Global Natural Increase
Doubling TimeThis map shows how long it will take for countries to double
their population if it continued to grow at the present rate
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Total Population
Birth RateDeath Rate
Birth Rate
NaturalIncreaseIn Population
NaturalDecreaseIn Population
Stage 1High Fluctuating
Total Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Stage 1 • Low population– Increasing very
slowly
• High birth rate
• High death rate
• Ethiopia/Niger
• UK: pre-1780
Stage 2Early Expanding
Total Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Stage 2 • Population growing at faster rate
• High but decreasing birth rate
• Decreasing death rate
• Sri Lanka/Bolivia
• UK: 1780-1880
Stage 3Late Expanding
Total Population
Birth RateDeath Rate
Stage 3 • Population, still increasing, but rate of increase slowing down
• Decreasing birth rate
• Low death rate
• Uruguay/China
• UK: 1880-1940
Stage 4Low Fluctuating
Total Population
Birth RateDeath Rate
Stage 4• High population,
almost stable
• Low birth rate
• Low death rate
• Canada/USA
• UK: post-1940
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Total Population
Birth RateDeath Rate
Ethiopia/NigerUK: pre-1780
NaturalIncreaseIn Population
NaturalDecreaseIn Population
Sri Lanka/BoliviaUK: 1780-1880
Uruguay/ChinaUK: 1880-1940
Canada/USAUK: Post-1940
Reasons
What do you think the reasons are for the changes at each stage?
Reasons for Stage 1High Fluctuating
Total Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Stage 1 • Little access to birth control• Many children die in infancy
so parents have more to compensate
• Children are needed to work on the land
• Some religions encourage large families
• Death rates are high due to disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science
Reasons for Stage 2Early Expanding
Total Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Stage 2 • Improvements in medical care
• Improvements in sanitation and water supply
• Quality and quantity of food produced improves
• Transport and communications improve movements of food and medical supplies
• Decrease in infant mortality
Reasons for Stage 3Late Expanding
Total Population
Birth RateDeath Rate
Stage 3 • Increased access to contraception
• Lower infant mortality rates so less need for bigger families
• Industrialisation and mechanisation means fewer labourers required
• As wealth increases, desire for material possessions takes over the desire for large families
• Equality of women means they can follow a career rather than just staying at home
Reasons for Stage 4Low Fluctuating
Total Population
Birth RateDeath Rate
Stage 4• Rates fluctuate with ‘baby
booms’ and epidemics of illnesses and diseases
• Reasons for Stage 4 have improved and it stabilises
Is there a Stage 5?
?
??
Stage 5: Depleting Population
Problems
• What problems do you think there could be with the model?
• It does not include the influences of migration• It assumes that all countries will go through
the same pattern• There is no time scale• Reasons for birth rates and death rates are
very different in different countries• And finally, is there a stage 5?
The End?