hancock farmland investor...hancock farmland investor december 2018 4 while farm equity has grown...

Hancock Farmland Investor December 2018

Hancock Farmland Investor December 2018

In 2018, net farm income is expected to decline 12% year

-over-year to $66 billion, partially reversing a 22% gain

in 2017. Based on the USDA estimates, farm net income

in 2018 will have slipped 47% below the 2013 peak

(Chart 1). The short-lived pick-up in farm income in 2017

was interrupted by higher input costs and the imposition

of tariffs on U.S. agricultural products. Production costs

are estimated to have increased 4.2% to $369 billion in

2018.

The key component in rising production costs was an

18% rise in interest expenses, as debt levels and interest

rates both moved higher. The expanded interest expenses

accounted for about a quarter of the increase in total

production costs. On a more positive note, fertilizer costs

are expected to decline 1.3% in 2018, while seed costs

ease by 0.6%. At $93 billion, net cash income, which

excludes non-cash items such as depreciation, and

accounts for changes in farm inventory levels, followed a

similar trend lower in 2018. Net cash income was down

8% from 2017, and cash production costs were up 5%

year-over-year.

The U.S. Farm Economy*

The USDA Farm Income and Wealth Statistics report released 11/30/2018 projected a 12% decline in 2018 net farm

income, partially reversing the gains realized in 2017. Rising costs and relatively flat cash receipts were the key factors

driving the reversal in the direction of net farm income. The largest single component in rising production costs was an

18% rise in interest expenses, driven by increased debt levels combined with higher interest rates. Increased government

payments moderated the overall drop in farm income, increasing 18% to $14 billion. In addition, the farm sector debt-to

-equity ratio is on track to move higher in 2018, rising from 15.1% in 2017 to 15.6%, driven largely by increasing real

estate debt.

(Continued on page 2)

The key component in rising production costs was an 18% rise in interest expenses, as debt levels and interest rates both moved higher. The expanded

interest expenses accounted for about a quarter of the increase in total production costs.

Net Farm Income and Net Cash Income Decreased Slightly in 2018 Despite Higher Cash Receipts Chart 1: U.S. Farm Net Income vs. U.S. Farm Cash Income ($ Billions)

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Sources: USDA ERS Farm Income and Wealth Statistics, Nov 2018

*All cover story data is from USDA ERS Farm Income and Wealth Statistics released November 30, 2018.

Hancock Farmland Investor December 2018 2

Farm sector cash receipts were relatively flat in 2018,

rising 0.7% to $375 billion, with livestock products down

0.2%, while crop income edged higher (Chart 2).

Contributing to the 1.5% rise in crop receipts were

increases in corn (up 4.1%), wheat (up 5.1%) and soybeans

(up 4.6%). The gains in cash receipts for corn and wheat

reflected higher volumes and prices, while the rise in

soybean receipts was due to higher quantities sold.

Partially offsetting the gains in corn, wheat and soybeans

were estimated declines in vegetable/melon (down 8.5%),

cotton (down 1%) and fruit and tree nuts (down 1.7%).

Further offsetting the positive gains in row crop cash

receipts was weaker livestock product receipts, which are

estimated to have retreated in 2018 by $0.4 billion (0.2%),

due to lower prices for beef and dairy, even as sales

volumes of these livestock products increased.

Total crop cash receipts have fallen from $232 billion in

2012, when prices peaked, to an estimated value of $199

billion in 2018 (down 14%). Corn is the largest driver of

the decrease, as corn cash receipts fell from $72 billion in

2012 to a forecast $48 billion in 2018 (down 33%) as

prices fell from $6.89/bushel to $3.41/bushel. Wheat cash

receipts have fallen from $16 billion in 2012 to a forecast

value of $9 billion in 2018 (down 44%) as prices have

declined from $7.77/bushel to $5.15/bushel and production

volumes fell. Soybean cash receipts have fallen more

modestly, from $44 billion in 2012 to a forecasted $40

billion in 2018 as prices have declined from $14.40/bushel

to $8.81/bushel (Chart 3). Soybean cash receipts found

support in increased volumes produced, reflecting higher

acreage planted and rising yields. Cotton and rice cash

receipts have remained relatively stable, with cotton down

from $8.2 billion in 2012 to $7.9 billion in 2018, and rice

cash receipts down from 2012 at $2.7 billion to $2.4 billion

in 2018.

Fruit and tree nut cash receipts have dropped since peaking

at $32 billion in 2014. Over the past four years, strong

production levels have led to higher stocks and lower

The U.S. Farm Economy (Continued from page 1)


Total Crop Cash Receipts Stable for the Third Consecutive Year Chart 2: U.S. Cash Crop Receipts ($ Billions)

Commodity Prices Rise Slightly in 2018 Chart 3: Commodity Prices ($ per bushel)

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Total US Crop Cash Receipts Corn

Cotton Rice

Soybeans Wheat

Fruits and Nuts


Contributing to the 1.5% rise in crop receipts were increases in corn (up 4.1%), wheat (up 5.1%),

and soybeans (up 4.6%).

$5.18

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$9.36

$5.70

$7.77

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Corn Soybeans Wheat

Sources: USDA Oil Crops, Feed Grains and Wheat Yearbooks, September 30, 2018


prices. Although quantities sold increased, they have not

fully offset significant price declines. Cash receipts for

fruits and tree nuts are forecasted at $30.6 billion in 2018

(down 5% from 2014) even with substantial volume

growth.

Given USDA supply and demand outlooks and price

forecasts for the fall 2018 and spring 2019 crop year, farm

net income and net cash income are likely to remain

relatively stable in 2019. Expected strong production for

corn, cotton, and soybeans in fall 2018 pushed prices

down for these crops slightly, but expected price gains for

wheat and rice will offset some of the declines. One

potential upside scenario would be a resolution to the

trade negotiations between China and the U.S., which

would lower trade barriers and spur U.S. soybean prices

higher. In the case of the permanent crops, large stocks

and projected record production for walnuts will moderate

any recovery in prices due to demand increases. Almond

and apple prices are expected to be slightly lower on

strong supply and stocks, while pistachio and wine grape

prices are expected to rise, recovering from 2016 lows on

strong demand.

Farm Financial Metrics

Since 2012, USDA’s estimate of the farm debt-to-equity

ratio has increased from 12.7% to 15.6% in 2018, driven

by steadily rising debt (Chart 4). Farm debt, which

includes real estate and non-real estate loans, has

increased from $298 billion in 2012 to a forecasted value

of $410 billion in 2018 (up 38%). The majority of this

increase is accounted for by real estate secured financing

which has grown from $173 billion in 2012 to a forecasted

value of $251 billion in 2018 (up 45%). Meanwhile, non-

real estate debt has increased from $124 billion in 2012 to

a forecasted value of $159 billion in 2018 (up 28%). The

real estate component of total debt grew from 58.2% in

2012 to a forecasted 61.2% in 2018 (Chart 5).


Farm Debt Has Increased at a Faster Pace than Farm Equity Chart 4: Farm Equity and Farm Debt ($ Billions)

One potential upside scenario would be a resolution to the trade negotiations between China and the U.S.,

which would lower trade barriers and spur U.S. soybean prices higher.

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Farm Equity Farm Debt


Real Estate Debt Increased from 55% of Total Debt in 2010 to a Forecasted 61% of Total Debt in 2018 Chart 5: Farm Sector Debt by Category ($ Billions)

$154 $167 $173 $185 $197 $209 $226 $238 $251

$125 $127 $124

$130 $148

$148 $148

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Real Estate Debt Non-Real Estate Debt




While farm equity has grown 12% from $2.34 trillion in

2012 to an estimated $2.63 trillion in 2018, it has not kept

pace with debt, leading to rising debt-to-equity ratios in

the farm sector. The increasing leverage in agriculture has

led to some concerns about the current financial viability

of the sector. However, the farm sector is still in relatively

sound financial shape, with the current debt-to-equity

ratio of 15.6% near the average of 15.7% for the post-

farm financial crisis period, 1990-2018 (Chart 6). Our

belief is that overall farm sector financials in 2019 will

still remain healthy despite moderate decreases in overall

on-farm prices and increasing agricultural debt. Investors

should carefully consider sub-segment and regional

variation around these averages, reflecting the importance

of a well-diversified portfolio.

Looking Ahead

The current farmland market presents as many

opportunities as threats to institutional investors.

Although recent declines in farm income have led to

falling to stagnant farmland values and lower cash yields

in the short term, we believe that the cyclical downturn in

farmland markets is near its end, as indicated by

stabilizing crop income. The recent decline has been

production (not demand) driven and the fundamentals of

demand remain healthy, although changes in trade policy

will continue to insert uncertainty into the medium-term

market outlook.


Debt-to-Equity Ratio Has Increased Since 2012, But Still Below 1990-2018 Average Chart 6: Debt-to-Equity Ratio

Sources: USDA Farm Income and Wealth Statistics, Nov 2018

28.5 %

17.6 %

15.6 %

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Average Debt-to-Equity Ratio (1990-2018F)= 15.7%

HNRG Research Team

Court Washburn, Ph.D Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer [email protected] Keith Balter Director of Economic Research [email protected]

Mary Ellen Aronow Associate Director, Forest Economics [email protected] Daniel V. Serna Senior Agricultural Economist [email protected]

Elizabeth Shestakova Economic Research Analyst [email protected] Weiyi Zhang, Ph.D Natural Resource Economist [email protected]


Corn Production Holds Steady in 2018 Figure 1: Annual Corn Production Estimates, Major Producers (Million Metric Tons)

Soybean Production Rebounds in 2018 Figure 2: Annual Soybean Production Estimates, Major Producers (Million Metric Tons)

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Argentina Brazil United StatesGlobal 2018 soybean production is expected to rebound 9% to 368 MMT, mainly because of soybean output in Argentina normalizing to 56 MMT, up 47% over 2017. U.S. production is forecast to increase 4% to 125 MMT on record yields and higher acres, and Brazilian production is forecast to increase slightly to 121 MMT. At 33%, Brazil’s share of global soybean production is a new high. Already the number one soybean exporter, we believe Brazil is likely to overtake the U.S. as the leading global soybean producer by 2020.

Source: USDA WASDE as of November 2018. 2017 is estimated and 2018 is projected. Years are marketing years.

Source: USDA WASDE as of November 2018. 2017 is estimated and 2018 is projected. Years are marketing years.

Farmland Market Indicators

Global corn production in 2018 is expected to remain nearly flat at 1.09 billion MT, with lower yields in China offsetting normalizing yields in Brazil and Argentina. Argentina’s harvest is forecast to increase 33% to 43 MMT as corn production remains profitable despite a recent increase in their corn export tax. Brazilian production is forecast to increase 15% to 95 MMT as higher corn prices motivated farmers to expand corn planting. U.S. production is forecast to increase 1.5% to 372 MMT on higher yields, despite fewer planted acres than 2017, while Chinese production is expected to decline 1% to 256 MMT. China’s historical corn supply and use was recently revised by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), with 2018 production increasing by 31 MMT from earlier estimates but still below 2017. South Africa’s production is expected to remain similar to last year at 13 MMT.


Sources: FAS GATS, Comexstat, and Ministry of Agroindustry as of Q3 2018

U.S. Dollar Appreciates Against Competing Currencies Figure 3: Quarterly Exchange Rates Between USD and Agricultural Currencies (Indexed to 1 at 2006: Q1)

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Argentina Brazil USU.S. corn exports in Q3 2018 averaged 15.9 MMT (four quarter moving average), up 14.4% from last year and

10.5% since last quarter. The U.S. benefited from reduced volumes from competing exporters Brazil and Argentina.

Chinese tariff impacts on U.S. corn are likely to be moderate, as China comprised only 0.5% of 2017 U.S.

corn exports. Brazil’s average corn export volume, 6.3 MMT (four quarter moving average), is up 27.3% from last year, after reduced second crop corn volumes in the

first half of 2017. Average corn export volumes from Argentina fell 1% from last year and 9.5% from last

quarter to 5.6 MMT (four quarter moving average), because of reduced production.

The strength of the U.S. economy and higher U.S. interest rates drove USD appreciation against most

competing currencies in Q3 2018. Comparing the strength of the USD to competitive currencies between

Q2 2018 and Q3 2018:

The USD appreciated slightly (2%) against the

Australian dollar.

The USD appreciated 29% against the Argentinian

peso, as Argentina’s recession has led to sharp depreciation of the Argentinian peso.

The USD appreciated 4% against the Brazilian real

with the Brazilian election contributing to macroeconomic uncertainty.

The USD appreciated 4% against the Russian ruble

as the ruble faced fresh U.S. sanctions.

Bucking the overall trend, the CAD appreciated

against the USD 2%.

U.S. Corn Exports Benefit From Reduced Production in Brazil and Argentina in 2018 Figure 4: Four Quarter Moving Average Corn Exports, Major Producers (Million Metric Tons)

Source: Macrobond as of Q3 2018



Sources: FAS GATS, Comexstat, Ministry of Agroindustry as of Q3 2018

U.S. soybean exports were 14.2 MMT (four quarter moving average), down 5% from last year and up 0.5% from last quarter. The U.S. benefited from the gap left in export supply by reduced exports from Argentina. Brazil exported 19.0 MMT of soybeans (four quarter moving average), up 20.7% over last year, and 8.2% from last quarter, as Brazil fills Chinese demand and benefits from the Chinese 25% tariff on U.S. soybeans. Soybean exports from Argentina, at 0.55 MMT (four quarter moving average) decreased 69.4% from last year and 50.3% from last quarter, due to a smaller crop earlier in 2018.

Source: USDA NASS as of Q3 2018

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U.S. Soybean Exports Start to Feel Effects of Chinese Tariffs Figure 5: Four Quarter Moving Average Soybean Exports, Major Producers (Million Metric Tons)

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Corn Wheat Soybeans After rising slightly in the first half of 2018, U.S. row crop prices slid downward in the third quarter. Wheat

prices decreased 2.5% from last quarter to $5.15/bu because of slower export sales and favorable winter

wheat planting conditions. Soybean prices fell 9.5% since last quarter to $8.81/bu as China’s tariff on U.S.

soybeans effective July 6 impacted U.S. soybean exports and prices. Corn prices slid 5.6% from last quarter to $3.41/bu based on favorable 2018 crop yield

expectations.


Row Crop Prices Decline in Q3 2018 Figure 6: Row Crop Prices ($U.S. per bu)


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Sources: USDA as of October 2018 and HNRG Research as of Q3 2018. Years are marketing years. *2018 nut prices are HNRG estimates

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Sources: NCREIF and HNRG Research as of Q3 2018. USDA Farm Income and Wealth Statistics as of November 2018. NCREIF data is calendar years. USDA data is marketing years.

Nut Markets Recovering with Record Production and Consumption Figure 7: Annual U.S. Average Grower Tree Nut Prices ($U.S. per lb.)

Almond prices for 2018 are expected to fall 5%, as USDA forecasts record 2018 U.S. almond production at

2.45 billion shelled pounds, however industry observations are less optimistic, and below average

carryover stocks should also boost almond prices. USDA forecasts a 10% larger 2018 walnut crop, 1.38

billion pounds, and industry reports indicate high quality. Due to the strong 2018 production, high tariffs into India (100% duty) and China (65% duty), and large

carryover stocks, estimated 2018 walnut prices are at 10-year lows. Initial industry reports for pistachios

indicate that the 2018 crop is a record, about 900 million pounds, and high quality. With carryover from 2017 at

just 32 million pounds, and Iran’s off-year crop lower at 100 million pounds, prices remain firm. Pistachio prices

for 2018 are estimated up about 33% from a near 10-year low price in 2017. Increased Chinese tariffs on U.S. nuts effective July 6th raised duties on pistachios to

45%, on almonds to 50%, and on walnuts in shell to 65%. Over the last five years, China comprised only 2%

of almond, 3% of pistachio, and 4% of walnut exports, whereas Hong Kong represented 10%, 40%, and 7%,

respectively, mitigating the impact of the Chinese tariffs on overall tree nut export volumes and prices, as tree nuts bound for China continue into Hong Kong.


In 2018, crop receipts are forecast to increase 2.1% because of growing cash receipts in corn, soybeans, and wheat, driven up mostly by increased volumes rather than increased prices. Reflecting low commodity prices, the Q3 2018 YTD total return for NCREIF row crops was 4.4%, only slightly higher than the Q3 YTD return for the past 3 years.

Hancock Agricultural Investment Group is a participating member in the NCREIF Farmland Property Index. The Index requires participating managers to report all eligible properties to the Index. Usage of this data is not an offer to buy or sell properties.

Strong Global Row Crop Production Continues to Keep Annual Row Crop Returns Moderate Figure 8: NCREIF Row Crops Total Return (percent per year) and USDA Row Crops Cash Receipts (y/o/y percent change)


Notes Farmland Market Indicators

Figure 1. Corn production is charted on a calendar year basis and updated on a marketing year basis. The corn marketing year is from September to August for the U.S., from May to April for South Africa, and from October to September for China. The corn marketing year is from March to February in Argentina and Brazil. Corn Production data and forecasts are updated on a monthly basis by the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE). Figure 2. Soybean production is charted on a calendar year basis and updated on a marketing year basis. The soybean marketing year is from September to August for the U.S., from February to January for Brazil and for April to March for Argentina. Soybean Production data and forecasts are updated on a monthly basis by the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE). Figure 3. Exchanges rates are updated on a daily basis by Macrobond Financial AB. Figure 4. Argentina’s agricultural exports are published on a monthly basis by the Argentinian Ministry of Agroindustry. Brazil export data is published on a monthly basis by Comexstat. U.S. exports are published on a monthly basis by the U.S. Census Bureau. Export data is reported on a 4 quarter moving average to adjust for seasonality. Figure 5. Argentina’s agricultural exports are published on a monthly basis by the Argentinian Ministry of Agroindustry. Brazil export data is published on a monthly basis by Comexstat. U.S. exports are published on a monthly basis by the U.S. Census Bureau. Export data is reported on a 4 quarter moving average to adjust for seasonality. Figure 6. Row Crop Prices are published on a monthly basis by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS). Figure 7. Permanent Crop Prices are published on a annual basis by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS). Almond, Pistachio and Walnut price estimates for the current year are calculated by using the percent annual changes for the crop year in the prices from HNRG sources. Export volume data per USDA Economic Research Service. Figure 8. USDA Cash Crop Receipts data is published three times a year in February, August and November by the USDA’s Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service. The U.S. level calendar-year forecast is first published in February. The August release converts the previous year’s forecast to estimates and the November release updates the current year forecast. NCREIF Farmland Total Return data is published on a quarterly basis. NCREIF quarterly total row crops returns are aggregated to form the total return for the year. The total return as seen on the bar chart may not equal the annual total return as reported by NCREIF, because the NCREIF annual return is calculated by multiplying instead of adding quarterly returns together.

Disclosures Investing involves risks, including the loss of principal. Financial markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. These risks are magnified for investments made in emerging markets. Currency risk is the risk that fluctuations in exchange rates may adversely affect the value of a fund’s investments. The natural resources industry can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, and taxes and other governmental regulations. The information provided herein does not take into account the suitability, investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person. You should consider the suitability of any type of investment for your circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. This material, intended for the exclusive use by the recipients who are allowable to receive this document under the applicable laws and regulations of the relevant jurisdictions, was produced by and the opinions expressed are those of Manulife Asset Management as of the date of this publication, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. The information and/or analysis contained in this material have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but Manulife Asset Management does not make any representation as to their accuracy, correctness, usefulness or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof or the information and/or analysis contained herein. The information in this material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline or other expectations, and is only as current as of the date indicated. The information in this document including statements concerning financial market trends, are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Manulife Asset Management disclaims any responsibility to update such information. Neither Manulife Asset Management or its affiliates, nor any of their directors, officers or employees shall assume any liability or responsibility for any direct or indirect loss or damage or any other consequence of any person acting or not acting in reliance on the information contained herein. All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest. While helpful, these overviews are no substitute for professional tax, investment or legal advice. Clients should seek professional advice for their particular situation. Neither Manulife, Manulife Asset Management™, nor any of their affiliates or representatives is providing tax, investment or legal advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This material was prepared solely for informational purposes, does not constitute a recommendation, professional advice, an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of Manulife Asset Management to any person to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy, and is no indication of trading intent in any fund or account managed by Manulife Asset Management. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Unless otherwise specified, all data is sourced from Manulife Asset Management. Hancock Agricultural Investment Group Hancock Agricultural Investment Group is a division of Hancock Natural Resource Group, Inc., a registered investment advisor and wholly owned subsidiary of Manulife Financial Corporation. © Hancock Natural Resource Group, Inc. Manulife Asset Management Manulife Asset Management is the global asset management arm of Manulife Financial Corporation (“Manulife”). Manulife Asset Management and its affiliates provide comprehensive asset management solutions for institutional investors and investment funds in key markets around the world. This investment expertise extends across a broad range of public and private asset classes, as well as asset allocation solutions. The material issued in the following countries by the respective Manulife entities - Canada: Manulife Asset Management Limited, Manulife Asset Management Investments Inc., Manulife Asset Management (North America) Limited and Manulife Asset Management Private Markets (Canada) Corp. 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