habitat model of himanthalia elongata: responses to a warming climate

Habitat Model of Himanthalia elongata: responses to a warming climate

Brezo Martínez, Rosa M. Viejo, Francisco Carreño & Silvia C. Aranda

[email protected] Universidad Rey Juan Carlos Madrid, Spain

SPECIES

DISTRIBUTION

BIOGEOGRAPHY

ENVIRONMENTAL

DRIVERS

MAJOR RESEARCH TOPIC DURING LAST DECADES

Grinnell 1917 Am. Nat. Gaston 2003

Gaston 2009 Proc. R. Soc. B.

SPECIES

DISTRIBUTION

BIOGEOGRAPHY

ENVIRONMENTAL

DRIVERS

HUMAN IMPACTS:

- Habitat fragmentation - Alien species

- Biodiversity crisis - Global Climate Change

Parmesan et al. 2005 Oikos

GLOBAL WARMING RANGE SHIFTS

Species worldwide: Higher altitudes

Pole-ward displacement

Thomas & Lennon 1999 Nature Wilson et al. 2005 Ecol. Lett. Parmesan 2006 Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst.

IPCC, 2007IPCC, 2007IPCC, 2007IPCC, 2007

IPCC, 2007IPCC, 2007IPCC, 2007IPCC, 2007

Spain: sun, siesta…

PREDICTIONS: high thermal increase

INCREASING NW Iberia OCEAN TEMPERATURES 0.1 - 0.5 ºC per decade since mid 70s

deCastro et al. 2009 Cont. Shelf Res.

Michel et al. 2009 Cont. Shelf Res.

INCREASING NW Iberia OCEAN TEMPERATURES 0.1 - 0.5 ºC per decade since mid 70s

deCastro et al. 2009 Cont. Shelf Res.

Michel et al. 2009 Cont. Shelf Res. FIRST EVIDENCES OF RETRACTIONS OF COLD-TEMPERATE INTERTIDAL SEAWEEDS: Himanthalia elongata: 130 km W Cantabrian Sea -N Spain

Fernández & Anadón 2008 Algas

INTERIDAL Porcía, mid Cantabrian Sea (N Spain), August 2000

Porcía September 2008

TEMPERATURE

Latitudinal – large scale spp. DISTRIBUTION marine & terrestrial, ectotherms & endotherms

Hutchins 1947 Ecol. Monogr.

Marine: OCEANIC ISOTHERM MODELS August & February, lethal & sublethal, survival & fitness

Lüning 1990

SUN

SHADED

refugees under

boulders

HOWEVER: EMERSIÓN STRESS IN THE in the INTERTIDAL???

INTERTIDAL EMERSION STRESS

- Aerial Thermal Shock - Wind

-  Low humidity -  High incoming solar radiation (UV)

- Nutrient limitation

PREDICTIVE MODEL EQUATION

for Himanthalia elongata distribution

- Relate occurrence/absence with:

Oceanic & atmospherical climatic variables

Non-climatic variables & 2D resources

- Predict trends in the ongoing Global Warming

AIMS

GIS + HABITAT DISTRIBUTION MODELS Fully developed in terrestrial systems Guisan & Zimmermann 2000 Ecol. Model. Austin 2002 Ecol. Model. Heikkinen et al. 2006 Prog. Phys. Geog.

To our knowledge…

first HABITAT MODEL for an intertidal seaweed

Many STATISTICAL TECHNICHES

available: multiple regression, logistic

regression - GLMs, GAMs, HP, AIC, BIC, etc.




BIOLOGICAL DATA sp1

Presence/absence sp1

Abundance sp1

Herbarium data




BIOLOGICAL DATA sp1

ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTORS

X, Y, Z, β Presence/absence sp1

Abundance sp1

Herbarium data

Climatic variables: temperature, humidity Spatial variables: kind of substrate

Model equation (multivariate Logistic regression): p, the probability of occurrence of the sp1




BIOLOGICAL DATA sp1

ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTORS

X, Y, Z, β

zy..bxa

zy..bxa

e1eP ++

++

+=

POWERFOOL TOOL:

- MAP of the probability of presence of the sp1 in

areas not sampled, DESCRIPTIVE TOOL

- HYPOTHESIS TESTING on species distribution-

environmental variables relationships

- PREDICTIVE EQUATION, trends in future

scenarios

Himanthalia elongata

BIOLOGICAL DATA:

Absences/presences

in 198 1 Km2 UTM cells.


1.  Fucal.

BIOLOGICAL DATA:

Absences/presences



1.  Fucal. 2.  Biannual.

BIOLOGICAL DATA:

Absences/presences



BIOLOGICAL DATA:

Absences/presences


HIGH TIDE

LOW TIDE

1.  Fucal. 2.  Biannual. 3.  Low intertidal.


BIOLOGICAL DATA:

Absences/presences


LOW TIDE

1.  Fucal. 2.  Biannual. 3.  Low intertidal.


Canopy forming Seasonally dominant

Autogenic engineering

BIOLOGICAL DATA:

Absences/presences


TRACK CHANGES IN THE WHOLE COMMUNITY


Cold temperate species: southernmost limit

in N Portugal and mid N Spain

BIOLOGICAL DATA:

Absences/presences


Figure 2. The 21-year (1985–2005) mean sea surface temperature (SST) (C) field for (a) winter, (b) spring, (c) summer, & (d) autumn. From Goméz-Gesteira et al. 2008.

Distribution along the coldest coast line (Lima 2007, Araújo et al. 2009).

Winter Spring

Autumn Summer

Study area: NW corner Iberian Peninsula.

1189 UTM cells, 1 Km2

7 ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTORS:

1.  Mean August Sea Surface Temperature SST AUG 2.  Mean February Sea Surface Temperature SST FEB 3.  Mean maximum air temperature of August MaxT AUG 4.  Mean minimum air temperature of February MinT FEB 5.  Mean August cloudiness CLOUDINESS 6.  Mean wave height WAVES 7.  Presence/absence of rocky substratum ROCK



THERMAL SEA & AIR CONDITONS



SURROGATE OF LOW TIDE CONDITONS



IMPORTANT FOR ALGAE FIXATION & SURVIVAL



SOURCES: -  SSTs & cloudiness: NOAA (US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration) family satellites (2002 to 2004). - Air Temperatures: WorldClim database (Hijmans et al. 2005). -  Waves: Coastline Modelling System Software (SMC 2.0), Coasts & Oceanographic Engineering Group, University of Cantabria. - Substrate: topographic maps & aerial pictures.

RESULTS:


VARIABLES FINALLY INCLUDED IN THE MODEL.

Himanthalia elongata A

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Bifurcaria bifurcata B

Pelvetia canaliculata C

Ascophyllum nodosum D

NO ROCK

PresencesAbsences

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100




NO ROCK

PresencesAbsencesPresencesAbsences

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

NONO ROCKROCK


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100




NO ROCK

PresencesAbsences

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100




NO ROCK


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

NONO ROCKROCK


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100




NO ROCK

PresencesAbsences

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100




NO ROCK


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

NONO ROCKROCK


Pres

ence

s(%

)

40

80

60

21.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.5

MAXIMAL AIR TEMPERATURE(August mean, ºC)


Pres

ence

s(%

)

40

80

60

21.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.521.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.5



Pres

ence

s(%

)

40

80

60

21.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.5



Pres

ence

s(%

)

40

80

60

21.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.521.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.5




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4

AUGUST MEAN SST (º C)



Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.414.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.414.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.414.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.414.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.414.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.414.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4


RESULTS:


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100




NO ROCK

PresencesAbsences

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100




NO ROCK


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

NONO ROCKROCK


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100




NO ROCK

PresencesAbsences

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100




NO ROCK


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

NONO ROCKROCK


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100




NO ROCK

PresencesAbsences

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100




NO ROCK


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

NONO ROCKROCK


Pres

ence

s(%

)

40

80

60

21.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.5



Pres

ence

s(%

)

40

80

60

21.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.521.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.5



Pres

ence

s(%

)

40

80

60

21.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.5



Pres

ence

s(%

)

40

80

60

21.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.521.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.5




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.414.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.414.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.414.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.414.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.414.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.414.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4


RESULTS:

PRESENT IN CELLS WITH ROCKY SUBSTRATUM FREE OF SEDIMENTS


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100




NO ROCK

PresencesAbsences

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100




NO ROCK


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

NONO ROCKROCK


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100




NO ROCK

PresencesAbsences

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100




NO ROCK


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

NONO ROCKROCK


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100




NO ROCK

PresencesAbsences

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100




NO ROCK


Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

Percent(%)

2040

8060

100

NONO ROCKROCK


Pres

ence

s(%

)

40

80

60

21.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.5



Pres

ence

s(%

)

40

80

60

21.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.521.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.5



Pres

ence

s(%

)

40

80

60

21.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.5



Pres

ence

s(%

)

40

80

60

21.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.521.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.5




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.414.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.414.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.414.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.414.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.414.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4




Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

Pres

ence

s(%

)

2040

8060

100

14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.414.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4


RESULTS: PRESENT IN COLD SEA & AIR CONDITIONS

PRESENT IN CELLS WITH ROCKY SUBSTRATUM FREE OF SEDIMENTS

CENTRE OF DISTRIBUTION The coldest ocean & benign low tide rocky area

CANTABRIAN SEA LIMIT High maximal ocean temperatures

ABSENCE AREA & N Portugal LIMIT ?????????????????

ABSENCE AREA & N Portugal LIMIT High maximal atmospheric temperature

RESULTS:


p (y) = EXP (19.40 + 1.50 * ROCK - 0.46 * MAXAGO - 0.61 * SSTAGO) (1 + EXP (19.40 + 1.50 * ROCK - 0.46 * MAXAGO - 0.61 * SSTAGO)

Predicted probability of presence - p (y)

Abs

ence

/ pr

esen

ce

0.5

0

1

0 1




Abs

ence

/ pr

esen

ce

0.5

0

1

0 1




Abs

ence

/ pr

esen

ce

0.5

0

1

0 1

PREDICTIVE MODEL EQUATION Prevalence: 0.34 Relative true presences: 69%, relative true absences: 71% AUC = 0.767, Kappa = 0.38 - FAIR discrimination Predicted P with Jack-knifing procedures and with full data set: R2= 0.99

WARMING SCENARIOS (increases per decade): - SCENARIO 1- MORE CONSERVATIVE

SST AUG 0.37 ºC Cantabrian Sea 0.27 ºC Atlantic coast MaxT AUG 0.34 ºC until 2040 then 0.69 ºC

Sea: Gómez-Gesteira et al. 2008 J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans. Air: B1 low emission scenario, Spanish Environment Ministry

- SCENARIO 2- LESS CONSERVATIVE

SST AUG 0.53 ºC Cantabrian Sea 0.50 ºC Atlantic coast MaxT AUG 0.52 ºC until 2040 then 1.21 ºC

Sea: trend by Llope et al. 2006 J. Geophys. Res. Oceans. Cabanas et al. 2003 ICES Marine Science Symposia Air: A1 high emission scenario, Spanish Environment Ministry

Both scenarios underestimate the

rate of August changes:

- Reported warming trends for SST

- Annual Mean SST instead of SST AUG

- Mean Summer Air instead of MaxT AUG

Absence of georeferred future climatic trends at the studied scale.

GENERAL TRENDS!

Probability of presence = 0 in all cells within the CANTABRIAN SEA - extinction: THERMAL ANOMALIES: 1.3-1.4 ºC – Mean August SST 1.5-1.4 ºC – Mean Maximal Air Temperature of August 36 and 27 years for the 1st and 2nd scenarios … AND 58 or 38 YEARS LATER, EXTINCTION FROM THE ENTIRE IBERIAN PENINSULA

RESULTS:

The model suggests a southern limit associated

to OCEAN and ATMOSPHERICAL hot conditions

during summer.

CONCLUSIONS

The model suggests a southern limit associated

to OCEAN and ATMOSPHERICAL hot conditions

during summer.

First time the contribution of both modeled

versus ISOTHERMS MODELS

CONCLUSIONS

The model predicts the extinction of

Himanthalia elongata from the Cantabrian Sea first

since departing ocean temperatures are harsher

and increasing at a faster rate than in the Atlantic

front (and coef. higher in the equation).

Different scheme N Spain versus N Portugal

CONCLUSIONS

Our results are supported by the current

retraction of Himanthalia elongata in the

Cantabrian Sea reported by Fernández &

Anadón 2008 Algas during the ongoing

warming period.

CONCLUSIONS

Current distributional records and biological

observations suggest that the rate of

extinction is faster than predicted.

CONCLUSIONS

… faster than predicted.

In situ fixed HOBO TidbiTs: coastal sea

Temperature increase >2.8 ºC 2005-2008

CONCLUSIONS

SUPERIMPOSED SHORT FLUCTUATIONS Goikoetxea et al. 2009 Cont. Shelf Res. Michel et al. 2009 Cont. Shelf Res.

We are facing a major constrain of cold

temperate flora in the Iberian Peninsula in

the ongoing warming

CONCLUSIONS

June 2007, Playa de S. Pedro, Lugo, Galicia.

June 2009

Dwarf morphs Viejo et al. 2011 Ecography

Kelp forest?

MORE WORK ON THIS:

- Demography marginal vs. central populations (Viejo et al.

2011 Ecography).

- Physiological experiments manipulating low tide x

submersed stress (1 Spanish and 1 Portuguese founded

projects). Producing a MECHANISTIC DISTRIBUTIONAL

MODEL.

- Cascade effects in the intertidal community of the

disappearance of canopy algae – diversity & functioning,

trophic structure (1 Spanish founded project)

¡MUCHAS GRACIAS!

Habitat Model of Himanthalia elongata: responses to a warming climate.

Brezo Martínez*, Rosa M. Viejo, Silvia C. Aranda & Francisco Carreño.

Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Tulipán s/n, 28933 Móstoles, Spain.

* [email protected]

Traditional models explaining macroalgae distribution are based on ocean temperature (August and February Isotherms). The predictive power of this approach is restricted because it lacks a mathematical expression, and omits factors relevant for intertidal seaweeds distribution, particularly atmospheric temperature. We aimed to improve our understanding about the role of other factors in seaweed biography using a niche-based approach suitable to make projections. Presence and absence records of Himanthalia elongata (Linnaeus) S.F.Gray from 1 km2 cells selected on a grid along the NW Iberian Peninsula were related using GLMs and HP to the variables that potentially influence this species distribution: August and February SSTs, maximum and minimum air temperature, kind of substrate, wave height, and cloudiness. Three of the former were included in the final predictive equation: 1. presences were restricted to places with hard substrate for fixation, 2. absences were found in sites with high August SST at the mid Cantabrian Sea, 3. hot conditions during low tide i.e. maximum august atmospheric temperature, restricted presences at the south, largely explaining the N Portuguese limit. The equation was applied to two warming scenarios suggesting Himanthalia elongata extinction from the Iberian Peninsula in few decades in response to both increasing ocean and atmospheric temperatures. In fact, a retraction of this species border of about 130 km has been recently noted. This confirms the model projected trend, although it is occurring at a faster rate. We propose a methodology to investigate coastal species biogeography and forecast changes in response to the warming, able to account for the effects of other environmental stressors aside ocean temperature.

habitat model of himanthalia elongata: responses to a warming climate

Technology