guidance note 6 identifying appropriate adaptation...

Identifying Appropriate Adaptation

Measures to Climate Change

Annex 7

Guidance Note 6

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ANNEX 7

1. Briefing note: Rainfed agriculture and adaptation

Author: Jon Padgham (unpublished)

Climate change vulnerability: Rainfed agriculture is vulnerable to current seasonal

climate variability— manifested as delayed onset of the rains, dry spells and heat waves

at flowering, and variable offset of the rains— that cause significant yield loss. Climate

change is expected to increase intra- and inter-annual climate variability, producing

longer periods between rains and spatial and temporal shifts in rainfall patterns that could

strongly hinder efforts to address problems of chronically low yields and high volatility

in inter-annual production levels that reinforce poverty and low rates of development in

rainfed areas.

The most vulnerable rainfed production systems occur in semi-arid and dry sub-humid

zones, which are dominant in Africa. Significant areas of rainfed agriculture also occur in

Central America and the Andes, and South, Central, and West Asia.

Adaptation needs: The significant ‘adaptation deficit’ that exists in relation to current

climate variability requires a strong emphasis on better managing this first, as a

foundation for future adaptation to climate change. Major adaptation needs for rainfed

agriculture include increased rainwater capture, soil conservation, soil fertility

replenishment, access to improved varieties, and diversification of production systems.

Rainwater harvesting

• runoff is captured and concentrated within the field through a series of contour bunds, contour trenches, and bench terraces

: RWH can be an effective means of smoothing out yield volatility

in rainfed systems, and in doing so address a key source of the adaptation deficit with

respect to current climate variability. Rainwater harvesting (RWH) describes a range of

methods where:

• conservation tillage, deep tillage, and crop residue retention practices increase infiltration and water storage capacity within the soil profile, or

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• rainwater is diverted into holding structures for subsequent use through supplemental irrigation.

The first of these three types is becoming an increasingly common feature of smallholder

rainfed systems, and autonomous adoption of these practices is reasonably robust.

Stimulating broader adoption of these practices as well as more capital intensive RWH

technologies will require creating more enabling conditions through improvement in

input and output markets, and improved access to information about the benefits of the

technology. Specific measures that can advance this include:

• Educate farmers about RWH options through expanding access to NGOs that facilitate farmer-to-farmer interactions

• Upgrade road-drainage systems for better market linkages and design roads to serve needs for runoff catchment

• Improve input and output market linkages as incentive for investments in capital intensive RWH methods

• Introduce credit systems to enhance access to animal traction, cost effective foot pumps and other water delivery technologies for supplemental irrigation

• Support crop breeding programs for development of varieties that fit conservation tillage systems or supplemental irrigated conditions

• Improve general research linkages between the NARS and RWH adopters, through encouraging research-to-use programs with the former and capacity building of farmer organizations in the case of the latter.

• Build the capacity for community organizations to engage in collective action around the construction and maintenance of macro-catchments through stakeholder workshops, and stronger linkages with local governments.

• Support hydrologic modeling to estimate potential negative downstream impacts from scaling up of RWH, along with promotion of policy dialogue between scientists, government, and upstream and downstream water users

Soil fertility

Better integration of soil fertility improvement programs with support for in-situ RWH

methods, such as those described above. Improving the retention of soil moisture reduces

: Encouraging soil fertility improvement as an adaptation response to climate

variability and change requires creating better linkages between soil fertility investments

and improved capacity to manage seasonal rainfall and to seasonal rainfall projections,

and through linking fertility with soil protection. Approaches for accomplishing this

include:

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the risk of crop loss from moisture deficiency stress, which in turn can induce fertilizer

investments.

Efforts to improve soil fertility should be closely linked with soil erosion control. The

adoption of practices and technologies that enhance vegetative soil coverage and reduce

soil disturbance are critical to ensuring greater resilience of production systems to

increased rainfall intensity, prolonged intervals between rainfall events, and to potential

soil loss from extreme climate events. Practices encompassed by integrated soil fertility

management (ISFM), such as green manure legumes, N-fixing agro-forestry trees,

compost, and animal manure serve this dual purpose. Compared with conventional soil

fertility management, ISFM is more compatible with rural livelihood sustainability

because it 1) provides a potential income source (through secondary products from green

manure crops and agro-forestry trees), and 2) it is more flexible than the sole use of

mineral fertilizer. Both of these characteristics make ISFM appropriate for adaptation.

Tailor fertilizer recommendations to the needs of farmers in high-risk farming

environments. Policy support is needed to move research and extension priorities from

the fine tuning of high-input fertilizer recommendations for yield maximization to one

that focuses on giving farmers information to allow them to make incremental

adjustments in fertilizer use, so as to maximize their rate of return rather than maximize

yields1

Specific measures that are needed include:

.

1 The use of Agricultural Productions Systems Simulator (APSIM) models in farm-based ‘accelerated learning’ pilots provide valuable information to farmers, extension, and NGOs about economic rates of return for fertilizer use in highly variable rainfed climates (Cooper et al., 2008). In semi-arid Zimbabwe, the model was field tested with 170,000 farmers who applied micro-doses of N fertilizer (at farmer affordable rates rather than officially recommended rates), and realized yield gains of 30 to 50% under below-average rainfall conditions. The APSIM model is driven by daily climatic data, and can be used to predict the impact of climate variability on the probability of success over a range of crop, water, and soil management practices. APSIM has been developed for a number of cereal, legume, and oilseed crops grown under rainfed conditions.

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• Improvements in input and output markets and rural infrastructure so as to provide a financial incentive for on-farm investments.

• Access to flexible credit programs, especially targeted at women. • Capacity building of farmers and local institutions to use seasonal climate forecast

information for crop management decisions, such as fertilizer use (see Seasonal Climate Forecasting briefing paper.).

• Education and extension through both formal channels as well as through the support of farmer organizations.

• Germplasm improvement and local seed availability for multi-purpose N-fixing legumes

• Promotion of land tenure security and resource ownership policies

Access to improved varieties

Measures that can enhance the performance of informal seed networks include:

: Improving adoption and dissemination processes for short-

duration crop varieties is important for enhancing the ability of farmers to cope with

increasingly variable seasonal climatic conditions. Investments and capacity building in

informal seed networks, seed system recovery from climate shocks, and participatory

plant breeding and variety selection would help to improve these prospects in rainfed

environments, which are often not serviced by formal breeding networks.

• Improvement of on-farm seed storage technologies and facilities that can reduce seed store losses from pests and diseases

• Creation of farmer seed enterprises targeted at local and small-scale commercial seed production

• Access to credit that allow farmers to acquire improved seed, and to prevent consumption of seed stores just prior to planting

• Maintain strategic seed stocks locally and regionally as a hedge against disaster • Support for rebuilding seed networks in post-disaster recovery through voucher and

fair systems that expose farmers to new varieties and new technologies. Participatory research. Participatory plant breeding (PPB) and participatory variety

selection (PVS) methods can increase the adoption rate of improved varieties in marginal

rainfed environments. PPB and PVS can also reduce the time and costs of developing

new varieties, as conventional breeding programs typically take 10 or more years to

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deliver new varieties to farmers for testing, as opposed to 3 to 4 years through

participatory methods2

Specific support measures for PPB and PVS include:

.

• Enhance plant breeding research capacity in developing regions

• Build capacity in extension, NGOs and farmer associations for field-based varietal

testing

• Support policies that mainstream PPB and PVS into national crop improvement

programs

• Support M&E in varietal adoption studies to track long-term adoption rates

Diversification

• R&D in horticultural crops, and enhance the capacity of extension services and NGOs to transfer technologies and knowledge.

: Diversification of rainfed production systems into less sensitive

agricultural microenterprises (small-scale vegetable and fruit production, livestock

rearing, bee keeping, etc.) can enhance adaptation to near- and medium-term impacts

from climate change. Extra income increases the flexibility of households to protect

assets during acutely vulnerable periods, such as in preparation for or recover from

droughts and floods, and it gives them additional resources to invest in productivity

improvements of field crops. Investments and capacity building needs in this sector

include:

• Integration of climate change scenarios into economic and agronomic assessments of horticultural crops, livestock and other microenterprises to evaluate which crop mixes would be tolerant to heat, and drought, and what remedial measures would need to be taken to enhance overall system resilience.

• Build capacity in the seed sector and other input markets to enhance their reliability. • Improve enabling conditions for smallholder entry into horticulture through extension

of credit, matching funds for smallholder investments, women-oriented programs, 2 PPB projects for rice and maize in South Asia, cassava in West Africa, and barley in West Asia have been successful in developing drought-tolerant and pest-resistant varieties, with high local acceptance and very good potential for adoption (see Stirling and Witcombe, 2004; World Bank, 2008). There have also been several successful PVS initiatives that have improved farmer adoption rates. Among the notable: NERICA rice for West Africa and the Okashana 1 pearl millet variety introduced in Southern Africa. Both varieties mature 30 to 40 days earlier than traditional varieties and produce higher yields.

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capacity building for crop marketing, and programs to improve the economy of production through empowerment of producer organizations3

• Invest in post-harvest facilities, and market chain improvements. .

• Encourage public-private partnerships. • Develop or improve market information systems.

Relevant agricultural sector investments

Sector investment* Measure or policy Relevance for adaptation Mitigation benefit

Rainwater harvesting**

Agricultural science and technology

Agricultural extension and information services

Agricultural policy and institutional capacity

Rural finance

Managing risk

Market development

Outreach and extension for RWH

Increase access to credit

Improve input and output markets

Build capacity for interactions between NARS, extension, and RWH adopters

(See Chapters 3 & 5)

Reducing entry barriers to the adoption of rainwater harvesting increases its viability in rainfed systems, which in turn decreases the sensitivity of rainfed agriculture to seasonal variability

Investments in RWH are tied to diversification away from climate-sensitive crops

Soil fertility**




Rural finance

Market development

Improve input and output markets to incentivize soil fertility investments

Access to credit

Access to and training in use of seasonal climate forecasts for decision support

Germplasm improvement and seed availability for multi-purpose N-fixing legumes (See Chapter 6)

Soil fertility improvements enhance seasonal climate risk management through early vigor of seedlings, better weed competition by the crop, root access to a larger area of soil water reserves, and early maturation.

Stabilizing and improving yields can provide additional incentives for adoption of other adaptation measures

Soil C sequestration where green manures and agroforestry used

Improved varieties**

3 Producer organizations were found to be an important factor in reducing entry barriers for smallholders into horticulture, as an adaptation strategy in Southern Africa. They engaged in group purchase of inputs, and served as focal points for information exchange (Thomas et al., 2005)

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Rural finance

Market development

Building capacity of informal seed networks

Participatory breeding and variety selection

Training and education for plant breeding

(See Chapter 7)

Short-duration varieties reduce the crop cycle time thus improving the ability of the crop to escape late-season droughts or floods.

Diversification**




Rural finance

Market development

Diversification away from climate sensitive rainfed crops


(See Chapters 5 & 9)

Extra income thorugh diversification increases the flexibility of households to protect assets during acutely vulnerable periods, and can increase potential to invest in improvements of field crop production

Soil C sequestration with conservation tillage

Table 1. Considerations for agriculture sector investments in rainfed agricultural systems that can support adaptation.

* Sector investment categories from the World Bank Agriculture Investment Sourcebook, 2005.

** Investments in these areas also generate secondary benefits for adaptation to climate change. For example, short-duration varieties, RWH, and soil fertility interventions that help the crop escape drought also reduce the potential for grain splitting that leads to aflatoxin contamination of maize and groundnut (see section on food toxins and climate change). And soil fertility investments and diversification towards non-maize field crops are effective means for managing Striga weed infestation, which is linked with land degradation and drought.

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2. Briefing note: Irrigated production systems


Climate change vulnerability: Climatic changes resulting in increased heat stress, higher

rates of evapotranspiration, and prolonged dry spells are expected to increase crop water

demand in irrigated systems. Simply expanding irrigation to compensate for negative

impacts from climate change will not be a viable adaptation response in many of the

developing world’s irrigated productions systems, given current rates of resource base

degradation and overuse of the resource. Climate change will further aggravate existing

pressures on irrigated agriculture related to unsustainable water allocation rates for

agriculture, and from increased human consumption of freshwater in rapidly growing

water-scarce regions The most vulnerable areas occur in intensively irrigated production

systems of South and Central Asia, northern China, and the Middle East/North Africa.

Adaptation needs: Irrigated systems will need to adapt by producing the current mix of

crops with less freshwater and by diversifying away from water intensive crops. The

ability of irrigated agriculture to accommodate these adaptation needs will depend upon

physical improvements to existing irrigation infrastructure, changes in water use policies

to promote water efficiency, improvements in water productivity, and reconfiguration of

cropping systems and water management practices to accommodate increasing use of

marginal water sources. Several of the demand and supply side measures discussed in the

briefing note for rice are applicable here. This briefing note will focus on general policy

reform, water conserving technologies and practices, and use of marginal water sources.

Reformulating irrigation policies to address distortions in water use: Irrigation policy

failures have contributed to overuse of water resources and degradation of the resource

base, both of which increase the vulnerability of these systems to climate change. Policy

reforms need to be targeted at ending subsidies for irrigation water pumping, and

encouraging coherent property rights for irrigation water use. These are measures that are

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needed both to put these systems on a more sustainable track and to adapt to climate

change. Adaptation-relevant measures for policy support include:

• Prioritizing policy reform efforts to irrigated systems that have high rates of leaching and seepage, or that have crops ill-suited to the environment, such as irrigated rice in dry-sub humid and semi-arid areas.

• Redirecting subsidies from energy use to water saving technologies. • Building the capacity to integrate climate change impact projections into water

resource planning models for policy support. • Transition support for farmers and local institutions affected by policy changes.

Support could include outreach and education, expanded credit and cost sharing for access to new production technologies, and fortifying management capacity of water user associations.

Promotion of water conserving technologies, micro-irrigation:

• Better education about costs and benefits of the technology, including capacity building for management principles, financial record keeping, and basic business skill development that improve farmer capacity to market new agricultural crops.

Improving the access and

adoption of water conserving technologies are important for adaptation in that water

conservation increases the ability of irrigated systems to cope with diminished water

supply, and the introduction of water conserving irrigation practices to rainfed cropping

areas can provide opportunities to diversify towards high-value market crops and

therefore reduce reliance on rainfed field crops. Low cost drip irrigation technologies

now exist that approach a price range affordable by smallholder farmers, but sustained

adoption of this technology is poor where enabling conditions are absent. Measures that

are needed to support farmer adoption of these technologies include:

• Support for the creation of water user associations, where absent. • Extension and education for technical problem-solving measures that allow drip

irrigation to be sustained. • Credit or cost-sharing programs for purchase of drip irrigation equipment. • Private sector capacity building in input markets for supplying drip irrigation

equipment and other inputs (seeds, fertilizer). • Economic assessments of output markets, building capacity for increased demand. • Improve the reliability of the water supply through support for construction of

diversionary structures and holding ponds for rainwater harvesting.

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Improve water productivity in irrigated systems

• Research and development for tillage, soil fertility, plant breeding, and furrow/deficit irrigation across different types of cropping systems and agro-ecosystems.

: Water conservation can also be gained

through improved water productivity, resulting from changes in cultural practices that

lead to better biotic and abiotic stress management, and through smarter management of

irrigation water. Conserving water through water productivity gains is also important for

reducing negative impacts on crops and soils where reliance on marginal-quality water

sources is prevalent, or will become more prevalent with climate change. Technologies

for achieving higher water productivity include use of improved varieties, reduced or

zero tillage, timely application of fertilizers, and IPM, along with furrow- and deficit-

irrigation methods. Many of the measures described in the previous section, such as

education and outreach, credit and cost sharing, and private sector and market

development, are applicable to many of these water productivity technologies and

practices. Additional support is needed in the areas of:

• Support for extension services, participatory research, and facilitation of farmer-to-farmer exchange mechanisms.

• Cost-benefit analyses

Expanding the use of marginal-quality water for irrigation:

• Conjunctive use of fresh and saline water wherein the least saline tolerant crops or crop growth stages receive fresh water, and more saline tolerant crops or crop growth stages receive marginal water.

The expected reduction in the

supply of freshwater for irrigation, resulting from population growth and climate change,

will force agriculture to utilize marginal water sources including brackish water and

treated and nontreated wastewater, switch cropping patterns towards salt-tolerant crops

including halophytic oilseed crops and agroforestry trees and shrubs, and conserve water

through drip irrigation systems and water productivity improvements that reduce the

volume of low quality water applied to crop land. There are several use/reuse strategies

for saline water that increase their economic viability by allowing high-economic value

crops to be grown in rotation with lower-value salt-tolerant ones. These include:

• Blending of good and poor quality water to extend water supplies (need infrastructure improvement).

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• Sequential reuse which involves adding the relatively better quality water to the least tolerant crop and using sequential drainage water on more salt tolerant crops down-slope.

Achieving wide spread adoption of these practices will require significant investments in

crop breeding, agronomic research, modeling capacity, education and outreach, capacity

building of extension and local institutions, and market development. Specific measures

include:

• Basic research on crop salinity tolerance breeding and halophyte crop development. • Research on the development of locally acceptable varieties of salinity-tolerant crops,

such as tomato, wheat, and barley, and support for farmer participatory varietal selection and plant participatory breeding programs.

• Support for farmer-field trials on irrigation water management and improved varieties.

• Develop monitoring programs to detect the emergence of negative environmental effects from marginal water quality use.

• Enhance crop and modeling capacity and the use of coupled climate-crop models for these farming systems; develop modeling capacity to assess the socio-economic aspects of cropping system changes, and their market viability.

• Improve irrigation infrastructure in order to accommodate new pumping and variable pressure technologies needed for blended and conjunctive water use.

• Develop and/or strengthen the capacity of local institutions to coordinate water use in sequential reuse systems.



Water policy reform



Irrigation and drainage

Irrigation policy reform

Transition support to facilitate uptake of water conserving technologies

(See Chapter 5)

Prioritizing policy reform efforts to vulnerable systems helps to catalyze uptake of water conserving technologies needed to adapt to climate change

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Rural finance

Micro-irrigation




Rural finance

Market development

Education and extension

Credit and cost-sharing policies to enhance adoption

Private sector capacity building for input markets

Improve reliability of water supply through rainwater harvesting

(See Chapter 5)

Reducing entry barriers to the adoption of micro-irrigation improves the general capacity to diversify away from climate sensitive crops

Water productivity





Rural finance

R&D for tillage, soil fertility, plant breeding, and water conserving practices irrigation across different types of cropping systems and agro-ecosystems

Support for extension services and participatory research

(See Chapter 5)

Gains in water productivity reduce pressure on irrigation resulting from higher ET rates and increased variability, with warming

Use of marginal water sources

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Rural finance

Sustainable NRM

Market development

Basic research on crop salinity tolerance breeding and halophyte crop development

Support for farmer-field trials on irrigation water management and improved varieties

Improve irrigation infrastructure to accommodate blended and conjunctive water use

Develop and/or strengthen the capacity of local institutions to coordinate water use in sequential reuse systems

(See Chapter 5)

The expected reduction in freshwater supplies for irrigation, resulting from population growth and climate change in water scarce regions, will force agriculture to utilize marginal water sources, switch cropping patterns towards salt-tolerant crops in order to adapt.

Soil C sequestration with development of agro-forestry systems for salt-affected marginal lands

Table 1. Considerations for agriculture sector investments in irrigated production systems that can support adaptation.


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3. Briefing note: Rice systems and adaptation


Climate change vulnerability: Adverse climate change impacts on rice systems could

undermine global food security, given the position of rice as the main staple crop of the

world’s poor, and the unique hydrologic characteristics associated with its production. A

1° C has been estimated to decrease rice yields by 10 percent (in the absence of

adaptation), and climate change is projected to bring greater flooding and drought to the

world’s major rice-producing areas. Vulnerable areas include:

• South Asia

•

: Intensification of the monsoon could increase inter-annual climate

variability and greater regional variations in rainfall, with dry areas potentially

becoming dryer and wet areas wetter, and the number of additional years of record or

near-record precipitation could increase.

Indonesia

•

: Rice production is highly sensitive to the ENSO, with drought effects from

delayed start of the monsoon causing significant crop loss. Recent studies estimated

an increase in ENSO activity over Indonesia with climate change.

Vietnam

•

: The Mekong delta is highly vulnerable to sea level rise. A 1 m rise in sea

level could significantly harm this highly productive rice-growing area, and greater

than 1 m could bring severe inundation problems. The Red River delta is also

vulnerable to a > 1m sea level rise, and elsewhere in Asia the Ganges-Brahmaputra

delta in Bangladesh and the Yangtze delta in China are vulnerable.

China

(See Chapter 2)

: Rice producing areas in the south could be damaged by increased flooding, on

the other hand temperature rise could expand the rice belt northward. Temperature

rise and increased climate variability, with climate change, will further stress the

already high allocation and demand rates for irrigated water.

Adaptation needs: Major adaptation needs for rice production include water conservation,

flood management and livelihood diversification in highly flood-prone areas,

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diversification out of rice in drought-prone irrigated areas and in marginal upland

systems, better pest management, and breeding for heat, salinity, drought, and

submergence tolerance.

Water conservation

Support for site-specific nutrient management is a priority need in high-input systems that

are transitioning away from continuous flooding, in order to reduce the rate of increased

N

: Conservation can be achieved through both demand and supply

management. On the demand side, reduced water use is possible through gains in water

productivity using improved varieties, better nutrient management, zero tillage, and IPM,

and through policy changes that reduce incentives to over extract water. Water

conservation on the supply side can be achieved through the use of furrow rather than

flood irrigation, mid-season drainage, direct seeding under aerobic conditions, and lining

of irrigation canals to reduce seepage losses.

2O emissions.

Flood prone areas: Flood avoidance is an important adaptation measure, and can be

achieved through improved access to short-duration varieties, development and

dissemination of submergence tolerant varieties, and a good irrigation supply combined

with water conservation measures that allows for completion of the rice cycle before

major late-season flooding. Livelihood diversification, such as dry season gardening and

nonagricultural microenterprises, access to credit, and flood proofing of the health

delivery system, seed and fodder banks, and critical infrastructure are also important.

Physical measures that can be taken to reduce flood risk include restoration of wetlands

as a buffer against flooding, desilting of drainage canals, unblocking natural floodwater

drainage channels, and strategic fortification of embankments. Building capacity in early

warning and response systems is also important.

Drought-prone areas: The water conservation measures noted above are important for

adaptation in drought prone areas. Policies that emphasize water conservation, such as

volumetric pricing, changing subsidies from energy to water conservation, and

mechanisms for localized ownership and management of the resource, should be targeted

at drought prone areas and those with high seepage losses. Some drought-prone areas

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may ultimately no longer support rice production under future climate change, such as in

the western IndoGangetic Plain. Efforts to support diversification towards less water-

intensive crops are needed for these areas. This will require:

• Policies aimed at water conservation, assessments of where upgrades to the irrigation infrastructure are needed to allow for more flexible water use, economic assessments of and market development for alternative crops, policies that encourage the private sector to develop input markets for seeds and other production factors, R&D on alternative crops, and improvements to formal and community based extension.

• In rainfed rice producing areas, support for participatory breeding and variety selection is needed to enhance access to short-duration varieties, and investments in seed infrastructure and input markets are needed to sustain the adoption of improved varieties and other production technologies. Rainwater harvesting, and soil and water conservation practices such as conservation tillage, bench terraces, and contour trenches are also needed, as is the development of rural microenterprises that diversify livelihoods towards less climate sensitive activities. PES programs could be appropriate in some upland rice producing areas of Asia to support sustainable water management in upper watersheds.

Pest management: Pest pressure is currently an important contributor to yield stagnation

in intensive rice production systems. Warmer temperatures and shifts in monsoonal

circulation patterns with climate change could introduce new pests to rice producing

areas, and the overuse of pesticides in rice combined with climatic changes could exert

high selection pressures on pests. Basic risk assessments are needed, through support for

climate envelope modeling for pests, as are investments in surveillance capacity (remote

sensing/GIS, and molecular tools for characterizing pest populations), and national

agricultural research and extension. Policies to encourage regional cooperation, and to

archive and exchange scientific information through web-based means is also needed.

Crop breeding: Progress on developing varieties for drought, heat, submergence, and salt

tolerance is good. Genes conferring enhanced tolerance to these stressors have been

identified, and recent success in backcrossing them onto existing varieties has been made.

Direct support of these efforts is important, and there are additional areas where support

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could complement plant breeding advances to ensure maximum benefits to adaptation

efforts. These include:

• Additional R&D in plant breeding and nutrient and pest management to address the likely emergence of new pest and plant nutrition problems, not related to climate change, that occur in the transition from anaerobic to aerobic rice growing environments.

• Investments in education and training and extension services are needed to shore up national capacity in agriculture and to improve the effectiveness of partnerships with international agricultural researcher centers.

• Improvement of seed system networks through policies that support public, private and NGO capacity. In areas that currently use modern varieties, assessments should be done to evaluate the overall robustness of variety adoption rates and to see to where weaknesses exist, and how they can be remedied. In areas not exposed to formal plant breeding networks, support is needed for participatory breeding and varietal selection programs, poverty mapping that can be integrated into variety dissemination programs, seed vouchers and fairs, farmer seed enterprises, and improved infrastructure for seed storage.

Implicit in these recommendations is support for water user associations, farmer

cooperatives, and local NGOs.



Demand-side water conservation



Sustainable agricultural intensification


Short-duration varieties

Conservation tillage

Nutrient and pest management

(See Chapters 5, 7, &8)

Gains in water productivity reduce pressure on irrigation resulting from higher ET rates and increased variability, with warming

Conservation tillage reduces erosion risks


Supply-side water conservation

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Rural finance

Irrigation policy reform

Furrow irrigation

Investments in water delivery infrastructure

(See Chapter 5)

Prioritize water conservation efforts to vulnerable systems

Furrow irrigation decreases water use relative to flood irrigation.

Lined canals and pipes where feasible reduce ET and seepage losses, which will be important in irrigated regions projected to become drier or more variable

Avoided CH4 emissions through less flooding

Site-specific nutrient management

Reduced offsite impacts of N pollution on general ecosystem resilience

Reduced rates of new N2O emissions

Flood-prone areas





Rural finance

Managing risk

Market development

Crop and irrigation management to shorten exposure to floods

Livelihood diversification

Flood-proofing health services, infrastructure

Early warning systems

Restore natural drainage, where possible

(See Chapter 5)

Diversification away from climate sensitive activities

Reduced exposure to floods

Better health care delivery, more resilient infrastructure in areas projected to become more flood prone

Drought-prone areas





Rural finance

Managing risk

Diversification away from rice


Water conservation policies and water productivity gains (see demand and supply-side water conservation, above)

(See Chapter 5)

Reduced water use in irrigated areas

Livelihood diversification for vulnerable populations

Enhanced drought avoidance through improved access in marginal upland areas to short-duration varieties and to seed system improvements


Pest management

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Pest-climate modeling

Risk assessment

Training, education, and infrastructure, and extension

(See Chapter 8)

Risk assessment of the future pest threat to crop production can rationalize investments in education and training, extension, and infrastructure needed for improving national pest management capacity

Crop breeding




Rural finance

Market development

Basic research on abiotic and biotic stress tolerance

Investments in education and training, infrastructure, and extension

Seed system and input market improvements

(See Chapter 7)

Varieties tolerant to drought, heat, salinity, and submergence are critical for adapting systems to climate change impacts.

Getting the enabling conditions right in terms of markets, knowledge exchange, and cost sharing/credit access to reduce entry barriers for technology uptake is essential.

Table 1. Considerations for agriculture sector investments in rice-based systems that can support adaptation.


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4. Briefing note: Crop genetic diversity Author: Jon Padgham (unpublished)

Climate change vulnerability: The capacity of crop breeding R&D programs to enhance the long-term adaptive capacity of agriculture will depend upon continual input of genes from crop wild relatives and landraces. Recent modeling of crop wild relative species distribution and abundance under a mid-range climate change scenario indicate that both could become severely restricted by climate change. With this loss of species, go known sources of resistance to important pests and diseases, as well as breeding material for abiotic stress tolerance. Landraces are another important genetic resource that could be negatively impacted by climate change. Additionally, landraces provide a means for bolstering seasonal climate risk management for farming communities in high-risk environments.

The priority areas for this issue are the Near East, China, India, West and East Africa, SE Asia, and highland Central and South America that coincide with the center of origin of the world’s major cereal, legume, and tuber crops.

Adaptation needs: Conserving crop wild relatives will require a prioritization process for crops of major global importance, a strategy to begin defining the scope of the threat, and capacity building for data gathering in developing regions. Specific measures for crop wild relatives include:

• Support for priority-determining mechanisms, such as that being prepared under

the auspices of the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and

Agriculture.

• More fully characterize the scope of the problem by applying climate envelope

models, GCMs and scenarios to a range of crops.

• Improve capacity building and education for surveying biodiversity, for

identification, taxonomic classification, GIS, and modeling at crop centers of

origin.

• Pursue policies and institutional capacity building specific to potential climate

change refugia and migration corridors. Link these to broader conservation goals

and payment for environmental services initiatives.

• Formulate and strengthen local property rights and intellectual property rights.

• Provide greater support to genebanks.

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Conservation strategies for landraces could include support for research initiatives that characterize genetic diversity of landraces with respect to drought and heat tolerance, storage characteristics, and pest resistance, build the knowledge base regarding drivers of landrace conservation/diminution in rural communities as a means of formulating poor-pro policies, stakeholder evaluation of potential market-based conservation incentives for enhancing landrace diversity, and support for informal seed systems. Specific measures for landraces include:

Support for community-based research programs to build knowledge about socio-economic factors that influence landrace diversity, so as to aid formulation of poor-pro initiatives.

• Build capacity in informal seed systems including better seed storage methods

and facilities, extension support, and information and infrastructure for

local/regional seed markets, and demand-driven farmer seed enterprises.

• Support cooperative linkages between gene banks and rural communities that

maintain in situ biodiversity.

• Introduce participatory breeding and varietal selection programs to increase

access to improved varieties suited to local conditions4

• Enhance plant breeding research capacity in developing regions

.



Conservation of crop wild relatives


Sustainable NRM

Support for priority-determining mechanisms

Improve capacity building and education

Adapting cropping systems to climate change requires the development of new abiotic and biotic stress tolerant/resistant varieties. Slowing or preventing the

4 Germplasm diversity and conservation are basis for a long-term crop improvement strategy (Dingkuhn et al., 2006). Reorientation of breeding programs from high yields to one that combines modern and traditional crop characteristics (for example, enhanced yield performance with photoperiod insensitivity and weed competitiveness,) is an appropriate strategy for areas where landraces predominate.

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for surveying biodiversity

Formulate and strengthen local property rights and intellectual property rights

Provide greater support to genebanks

(See Chapter 7)

loss of crop wild relatives is crucial for the long-term viability of breeding programs.

Conservation of land races


Sustainable NRM

Sustainable intensification



Market development

Support for community-based research programs

Build capacity of informal seed networks

Support cooperative linkages between gene banks and rural communities

Support participatory breeding and varietal selection programs

(See Chapter 7)

Landrace diversity is important for risk mitigation in marginal environments

Developing improved varieties for marginal environments depend on use of landraces

Table 1. Considerations for agriculture sector investments in seasonal climate forecasting that can support adaptation. * Sector investment categories from the World Bank Agriculture Investment Sourcebook, 2005.

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5. Briefing note: Integrated pest management Author: Jon Padgham (unpublished)

Climate change vulnerability: An increase in extreme events, changes in moisture

conditions, temperature rise, and elevated CO2

• range expansion of existing pests and invasion by new pests (as well as reduced

pressure from some pests caused by unfavorable climatic conditions)

concentrations with climate change are

expected to cause:

• accelerated pest lifecycles leading to more pest cycles per season

• promotion of secondary pests to primary pests brought about by reduction in host

tolerance, and changes in landscape characteristics and land-use practices, and

• increased damage from invasive alien species

Climate change could also reduce the reliability of current IPM strategies, requiring the

dedication of additional resources into developing new knowledge systems and

appropriate measures to counter new pests or the intensification of existing ones.

Potential effects of climate change on pest management practices include:

• loss of host resistance, and reduction in crop genetic diversity needed for

developing pest-resistant varieties

• disruption of enemy-herbivore dynamics that are important for biological control

• reduced microbial control of soilborne pests and diseases due to soil degradation,

and

• diminished efficacy of pesticides.

Adaptation needs:

Assessing the risk: The foremost priority is to gain basic knowledge of which cropping

systems could be vulnerable to increased pest pressure from climate change, how that

vulnerability might occur, i.e. invasion of new pests, loss of host resistance or of natural

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enemies for biological control of new and existing pests, and the implications of

increased pest damage in food-insecure regions that are sensitive to climate change. This

information, which at the present time is lacking, could be used by policy makers in

agricultural-sector planning for adaptation, by IPM researchers and national agriculture

programs in deciding where to invest resources in technology development and capacity

building for pest surveillance and management, and it could inform relevant collaborative

efforts such as the Global Invasive Species Program.

Support is needed to expand the development and use of climate envelope and

mechanistic models to predict shifts in pest range, and, from that, to develop risk maps

that aid rational adaptation planning in this area. The CGIAR’s system-wide IPM

initiative would be a logical entity to undertake the development of a common framework

for assessing the risk.

Bolstering pest management capacity

• Better characterization and quantification of existing pest problems in the tropics and sub-tropics. There are still gaps in this basic information.

: Investments in infrastructure, training, and

education are needed in the following areas:

• Build capacity for surveillance and early detection of pest invasions through increasing remote sensing and GIS capacity, physical surveillance through insect and spore trapping nurseries, and training in the use of molecular tools to characterize pest populations and detect the presence of new pests.

• Fortify national agricultural research and extension services in the areas of pest surveillance and quarantine, plant breeding, and seed multiplication; refurbish neglected infrastructure such as laboratories and greenhouses, and increase the reach of pest extension services into rural communities

• Encourage regionally coordinated strategies capable of responding to new alien invasive species and fast-moving plant-disease pandemics. Improve institutional capacity for information sharing, coordination, and intersectoral planning.

• Broaden access to interactive database/website resources for archiving and exchanging new scientific knowledge, including relevant molecular and genetics research and social science work in local and traditional pest knowledge.

• Further support basic plant breeding research in international agricultural centers, and policies to further linkages between IAR and NARS.

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• Increase research support for crop biodiversity as an adaptation strategy, to reduce selection pressures on pests.

• Support sustainable agriculture efforts related to building soil organic matter levels in soil, rotation methods that reduce weed pressure, and agroecosystem diversification that increases pest predator abundance.

• Encourage education and extension to lessen pesticide misuse, and policies to regulate pesticide marketing.

• Encourage integrated participatory research and farmer field schools. Support capacity building of farmer cooperatives and producer organizations as a means of information exchange and technology adoption.



Pest risk assessment


Model-based assessments of potential pest damage under climate change

(See Chapter 8)

Strategic planning for adaptation would be better informed by filling this critical knowledge gap

National pest management capacity



Build capacity for surveillance and early detection of pest invasions

Fortify NARES in plant breeding, pest management, and seed multiplication

Encourage regionally coordinated strategies around invasive alien species

Broaden access to interactive database/website resources for archiving and exchanging new

The significant deficiencies in current national pest management capacity, in both green revolution and non-green revolution systems, could be further challenged by climate change. Investing in this area would pay immediate dividends as well as preparing for future impacts under climate change.

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scientific knowledge

Encourage integrated participatory research and farmer field schools

Support sustainable agriculture initiatives that maintain agroecosystem biodiversity

(See Chapter 8)

Table 1. Considerations for agriculture sector investments in rice-based systems that can support adaptation.


guidance note 6 identifying appropriate adaptation...

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