growth set to continue: marco-economic outlook for asia/pacific
DESCRIPTION
GROWTH SET TO CONTINUE: Marco-Economic Outlook for Asia/Pacific. GDP growth (%). Size of Middle Class (in million). Highest growth region with changing trade patterns and increasing portion of domestic demand. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
GROWTH SET TO CONTINUE: Marco-Economic Outlook for Asia/Pacific
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2002 2003E 2004F 2005F 2006F
World
AP
1) Source: Economist Intelligence Unit Update; 2) Master Card estimates
GDP growth (%)
Highest growth region with changing trade patterns and increasing portion of domestic
demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2002 2010F
China
Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Size of Middle Class (in million)
Every 1% gained in private consumption translates into over $70b more in
consumption
REGION ASIA – THE NATURE OF THE BEAST
India
China
Thailand
Singapore
Ethnicgroups:
Languages:
Religions:
% sales of modern trade
Ave. priceper footwear (€)
• 336 major tribes
• Hindi• 1,600
dialects
• Hindu• Muslim• Others
• <5%
• 2.3
• 93%Chinese
• 7% others
• Mandarin• >100
dialects
• Confuc-ianism Buddhism,Taoism,others
• <10%
• 3.4
• 75% Thai• 8%
Chinese• 17%
Others
• Thai
• Buddhist, others
• ~30%
• 14.1
• Chinese, Malay, Indian, Others
• English, Malay, Mandarin, etc.
• Christian, Buddhist, Muslim, etc
• >80%
• 48.2
People
TradeStruc.
Pricing
Very Low
Low
Mid
High
Economic development
Japan
• 99 %Japanese
• 1 % Others
• Japanese
• ShintoBuddhist,Others
• >90%
• >48
Source: Lit search; CIA Factbook; BCG analysis
Ethnicgroups:
Languages:
Religions:
% sales of modern trade
Ave. priceper footwear (€)
Ethnicgroups:
Languages:
Religions:
% sales of modern trade
Ave. priceper footwear (€)
Ethnicgroups:
Languages:
Religions:
% sales of modern trade
Ave. priceper footwear (€)
Ethnicgroups:
Languages:
Religions:
% sales of modern trade
Ave. priceper footwear (€)
Population
• Half of the world population
• Young population …• … >50% below 30 years
old• Increasing concentration
in cities
• … 30% 0 to 14 years old
REGION ASIA – THE NATURE OF THE BEASTPopulation
in mio.Population
in mio.Population
in mio.Population
in mio.
2001 2007 FC 2015 FC 2016 FC
China 1,278 1,339 1,380 1,386
India 1,027 1,112 1,235 1,250
Indonesia 214 232 254 257
Japan 127 127 125 125
Vietnam 80 89 94 95
Philippines 78 85 100 102
Thailand 63 63 66 66
Korea 47 49 51 51
Malaysia 24 25 29 30
Taiwan 22 24 24 24
Australia 19 20 22 22
Hong Kong, China
7 6 9 9
New Zealand 4 4 4 4
Singapore 3 4 4 4
Calcutta 2,993 3,179 94,217 95,055
Popu
latio
n (m
illio
n)
GNI Per Capita (US$) 2002
100 10000 100000
10
100
1000
10000
China
Indonesia
PhilippinesVietnam
Thailand
Malaysia
Korea
Singapore
Hong Kong
Taiwan
India
Japan
1000
ASIA PACIFIC RELATIVE SIZE OF ECONOMIES
1000 10000 100000
10
100
1000
10000China
Indonesia
PhilippinesVietnam
Thailand
Malaysia
Korea
Singapore
Hong Kong
Taiwan
India
Japan
ASIA PACIFIC RELATIVE SIZE OF ECONOMIES MEASURED WITH PURCHASING POWER PARITY
GNI Per Capita (US$) 2002 PPP
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illi
on
)
City Country Ranking Population
Tokyo Japan 1 33,413,000
Mexico Mexico 2 21,701,925
New York USA 3 21,199,865
Seoul South Korea 4 20,156,800
Sao Paulo USA 4 20,156,800
Jakarta Indonesia 6 18,206,700
Osaka-Kyoto-Kobe
Japan 7 17,646,900
Delhi India 8 17,367,300
Mumbai India 9 17,340,900
Los Angeles USA 10 16,895,945
Le Caire Egypt 11 16,244,700
Calcutta India 12 14,362,546
Buenos Aires Argentine 13 14,235,106
Manila Philippines 14 14,140,000
Moscow Russia 15 12,622,400
City Country Ranking Population
Shanghai China 16 12,190,000
Rio de Janeiro Brazil 17 11,629,629
Teheran Iran 18 11,475,100
Paris France 19 11,376,193
Ruhr Germany 20 11,291,100
Karachi Pakistan 21 10,807,800
Dhaka Bangladesh 22 10,545,897
Istanbul Turkey 23 10,301,400
Londres Royaume Uni 24 10,229,219
Lagos Nigeria 25 9,529,700
Beijing China 26 9,376,200
Bangkok Thailand 27 9,308,924
Chicago USA 28 9,157,540
Kinshasa-Brazzaville
Congo 29 8,915,800
Nagoya Japan 30 8,657,000
THE 30 LARGEST CITIES IN THE WORLD
By 2010……
UNDERSTANDING ASIA
• 30 towns of >5 million habitants 2 in USA, 6 in Europe)
• Shanghai, Bombay > 20 million
• Beijing, Indonesia, Manila,
Calcutta, Delhi, Tianjin, Dacca >15
million
• from village to Metropolitan
• from export to market demand
• from poverty to major savings
• from labor force to advanced technologies
• from isolation to integration
• the asianisation of the world
6 Megatrends in the Region
UNDERSTANDING ASIA
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Nominal private consumption (US$ Bn)
2003
2008Asia-Pacific Aggregate
NOMINAL PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FOR ASIA-PACIFIC AT A GLANCE
• from village to Metropolitan
• from export to market demand
• from poverty to major savings
• from labor force to advanced technologies
• from isolation to integration
• the asianisation of the world
6 Megatrends in the Region
UNDERSTANDING ASIA
China
Asia
EuropeUSA30%
20%6%10%
• from village to Metropolitan
• from export to market demand
• from poverty to major savings
• from labor force to advanced technologies
• from isolation to integration
• the asianisation of the world
6 Megatrends in the Region
UNDERSTANDING ASIA
• from village to Metropolitan
• from export to market demand
• from poverty to major savings
• from labor force to advanced technologies
• from isolation to integration
• the asianisation of the world
6 Megatrends in the Region
UNDERSTANDING ASIA
• from village to Metropolitan
• from export to market demand
• from poverty to major savings
• from labor force to advanced technologies
• from isolation to integration
• the asianization of the world
6 Megatrends in the Region
UNDERSTANDING ASIA
• Poverty
• Unemployment
• Financial Fragility
• Infrastructure
• Corruption
• Deregulation & Trade Liberalization
CHALLENGES FOR ASIA PACIFIC
BRAND CATEGORY
1 Sony Consumer electronics
2 Nokia Mobile phone
3 Kodak Camera/Film/Office Equipment
4 Panasonic Computer/Consumer electronics
5 Coca-Cola Soft drinks
6 Canon Camera/Office equipment
7 Toyota Automotive/Motorcycle
8 Honda Automotive/Motorcycle
9 Fuji Camera/Consumer electronics
10 Nike Sports apparel/Accessories/Footwear
11 Rolex Luxury watch/Accessories
12 McDonald’s Fastfood/Coffee chain
13 Mercedes-Benz Automotive
14 BMW Automotive/Motorcycle
15 Shell Petrol/Oil company
16 adidas Sports apparel/Accessories/Footwear
17 Samsung Automotive/Consumer electronics
18 Marlboro Cigarette
19 7-Eleven Convenience store/Supermarket
20 Yahoo Internet search engine
Source: “media Portfolio” 16 July 2004
THE TOP 20 BRANDS ACROSS EIGHT ASIAN MARKETS