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1 Growth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas - President & CEO

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Page 1: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

1

Growth from emerging markets

Jon Fredrik Baksaas - President & CEO

Page 2: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

2

Strong international positions

CountryTotal

population(mill)

Mobile penetration Market share

Bangladesh 146 14% 61%

Pakistan 157 35% 16%

Thailand 65 68% 32%

Serbia 7.5 86% 41%

Malaysia 27 77% 28%

Ukraine* 48 108% 43%

Hungary 10 93% 34%

Montenegro 0.6 90% 58%

Russia* 145 107% 31%

Total 600 60% 30%

* Source: AC&M

Page 3: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

3

We plan for 100% real mobile penetration in all markets

Malaysia 77% 72%

Thailand 68% 55%

Ukraine* 108% 65%

Pakistan 35% 29%

Bangladesh 14% 13%

* Source: AC&M** Note: Telenor estimates

Reported penetration Real penetration**

Page 4: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

4

Substantial subscription growth

Pakistan Bangladesh Ukraine*

+259% +89% +46%

* Source: AC&MNote: Growth in mobile subscriptions last twelve months

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q1 2006 Q1 2007

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q1 2006 Q1 20070

2

4

6

8

10

Q1 2006 Q1 2007

Page 5: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

5

Combined with extreme price competition

Pakistan Bangladesh Ukraine*

* Source: AC&M** Note: Telenor estimatesNote: Price reduction last two years

-30% -60% -60%**

Instaphone 1%

Ufone21% Mobilink

44%

Warid16%

Paktel 2%

Telenor 16%

Grameenphone61%

Aktel17%

Banglalink14%

Citycell 5%Teletalk 2%

UMC40%

Astelit12%

URS 4% Golden Telecom 1%

Kyivstar43%

Page 6: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

6

Total trafficincrease

Driving network investments

Note: Figures are based on last twelve months. Telenor estimates on Ukraine.

Pakistan Bangladesh Ukraine

CAPEX/Sales 52%172% 33%

245%374% 187%

Page 7: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

7

Remember what happened in Malaysia

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

Q400

Q101

Q201

Q301

Q401

Q102

Q202

Q302

Q402

Q103

Q203

Q303

Q403

Q104

Q204

Q304

Q404

Q105

Q205

Q305

Q405

Q106

Q206

Q306

Q406

Q107

5 operators 3 operators

Growth 13%

Growth 26%

Average price decline ~10%

Average price decline ~25%

MYRm

Note: DiGi quarterly revenues

Page 8: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

8

Growth through profitable acquisitions

Page 9: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

9

Reasons for M&A

Superior governance structure and highly experienced management

Global procurement synergies

Contribute to consolidation

Increasing importance of geographical clusters

Undervalued long term ARPU expectations

Page 10: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

10

Acquisition criterias

Large population and low penetration

Creation of regional clusters

Predictable regulatory environment

Cultural fit

Strong business case

Page 11: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

11

Closer look at Vietnam

3%

19%

4%

37%

36%

HT MobileS-Fone VietnamViettelVinaphoneMobifone Viet Nam

Market shares Q1 2007

FactsPopulation 2006 (millions) : 80.9Penetration Q1 2007 : 20%GDP/pop 2006 (USD) : 730GDP growth : 8%

Page 12: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

12

Closer look at the region

Page 13: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

13

Telenor plug and play model

Get management

Segmentation strategy in place

First month Next two months

After three months

Acquisition

Launch

Re-branding

Re-plan network

Fix distribution

Re-negotiate contracts to get procurement savings

Get Telenor expats

Launch first go to market offering

Day to day operation

Page 14: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

14

Are there other growth opportunities?

Page 15: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

15

Leveraging on our asset base

Advanced distribution with 350k points of sale

123 million subscriptions

Close to 100% coverage Backbone capacity

Page 16: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

16

Payment services

Nokia 3

110 classic

Page 17: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

17

Community Information Center

Stay in touch with loved ones abroadTelemedicine

Job Search Home & AbroadGovernment Applications

Mobile Internet

Page 18: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

18

Advertising and mobile TV

Nokia 3110 classic

Page 19: Growth from emerging markets - Telenor · PDF fileGrowth from emerging markets Jon Fredrik Baksaas ... Banglalink 14% Citycell 5% Teletalk 2% UMC 40% ... o v er n m e nt A p p lic

19

Summary

Still strong penetration growth

Exploring new acquisition targets

Utilize attractive asset base for new initiatives