growth and inclusion in the gms countries: an assessment

47
1 Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment By Srinivasa Madhur Director of Research, Cambodia Development Resource Institute (CDRI), Phnom Penh, Cambodia Global Development Network Meeting Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manila, Philippines, 20 June, 2013 (This presentation is based on a forthcoming paper on the same subject co-authored with Jayant Menon, Lead Economist, ADB)

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Page 1: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

1

Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

BySrinivasa Madhur

Director of Research, Cambodia Development Resource Institute

(CDRI), Phnom Penh, Cambodia

Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

BySrinivasa Madhur

Director of Research, Cambodia Development Resource Institute

(CDRI), Phnom Penh, Cambodia

Global Development Network Meeting

Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manila, Philippines, 20 June, 2013 (This presentation is based on a forthcoming paper on the same subject co-authored with Jayant Menon, Lead Economist, ADB)

Global Development Network Meeting

Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manila, Philippines, 20 June, 2013 (This presentation is based on a forthcoming paper on the same subject co-authored with Jayant Menon, Lead Economist, ADB)

Page 2: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

2

Three key questions addressedThree key questions addressed

• How inclusive has growth and development been in the GMS countries?

• What are the key patterns of development inclusiveness emerging across the GMS countries?

• What lessons for making development more inclusive in the future

(The empirical evidences are examined against the backdrop of an analytical framework – not presented here - that defines inclusiveness, explains its many dimensions, and reasons out why it should be the overarching development goal)

• How inclusive has growth and development been in the GMS countries?

• What are the key patterns of development inclusiveness emerging across the GMS countries?

• What lessons for making development more inclusive in the future

(The empirical evidences are examined against the backdrop of an analytical framework – not presented here - that defines inclusiveness, explains its many dimensions, and reasons out why it should be the overarching development goal)

Page 3: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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GMS, GMS countries, and the coverage of this study

GMS, GMS countries, and the coverage of this study

• GMS – Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand, China’s Yunan Province and Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region)

A natural geographic and economic area linked by the Mekong River

2.6 million square kilometers About 326 million people An Average per capita income of about $1500 (at

current exchange rates)• GMS countries - Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam,

Thailand, China – 6 countries• This study covers the GMS countries (except

Myanmar), rather than the GMS per se

• GMS – Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand, China’s Yunan Province and Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region)

A natural geographic and economic area linked by the Mekong River

2.6 million square kilometers About 326 million people An Average per capita income of about $1500 (at

current exchange rates)• GMS countries - Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam,

Thailand, China – 6 countries• This study covers the GMS countries (except

Myanmar), rather than the GMS per se

Page 4: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Looks mainly at the economic, social, and governance dimensions of inclusivenessLooks mainly at the economic, social, and governance dimensions of inclusiveness

• Economic dimensions - growth inclusiveness : Growth and structural changes poverty (national, $1.25-a-day and $2-a-day) income/consumption inequality income/consumption polarization• Human development and social inclusiveness: Health Education Social protection and gender equity Other vulnerabilities• Governance dimensions: Governance Democratization

• Economic dimensions - growth inclusiveness : Growth and structural changes poverty (national, $1.25-a-day and $2-a-day) income/consumption inequality income/consumption polarization• Human development and social inclusiveness: Health Education Social protection and gender equity Other vulnerabilities• Governance dimensions: Governance Democratization

Page 5: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Main messages – economic inclusiveness

Main messages – economic inclusiveness

• GMS countries had strong growth, dynamic structural changes, and modest economic catch-up/convergence.

• Today, the GMS is mostly a middle income region (Cambodia about to be) and a rapidly industrializing and urbanizing sub-region in Asia.

• Today as in 1995,CAM the poorest and Thailand the richest – yet Thailand’s income now 3.7 times that of Cambodia, compared to about 7 times in 1995.

• In 995, Thailand was thrice as rich as China; today the two have similar incomes

• Poverty reduction equally impressive – Vietnam’s growth most pro-poor/poor-friendly, Laos’s the least (with China and CAM in between).

• Remaining poor in many of these countries typically the hard-to-reach kind

• Moreover, a number of economic and environmental vulnerabilities - increasing in some countries – threaten people’s livelihoods and quality of life more generally

• Beyond poverty, growth could have been more inclusive, had overall income distribution and polarization not worsened/remained high (with exceptions)

• GMS countries had strong growth, dynamic structural changes, and modest economic catch-up/convergence.

• Today, the GMS is mostly a middle income region (Cambodia about to be) and a rapidly industrializing and urbanizing sub-region in Asia.

• Today as in 1995,CAM the poorest and Thailand the richest – yet Thailand’s income now 3.7 times that of Cambodia, compared to about 7 times in 1995.

• In 995, Thailand was thrice as rich as China; today the two have similar incomes

• Poverty reduction equally impressive – Vietnam’s growth most pro-poor/poor-friendly, Laos’s the least (with China and CAM in between).

• Remaining poor in many of these countries typically the hard-to-reach kind

• Moreover, a number of economic and environmental vulnerabilities - increasing in some countries – threaten people’s livelihoods and quality of life more generally

• Beyond poverty, growth could have been more inclusive, had overall income distribution and polarization not worsened/remained high (with exceptions)

Page 6: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Main messages – human development and social inclusiveness

Main messages – human development and social inclusiveness

• Substantial human development – between 1995-2012, HDI increases of 35-41% range, excluding Thailand).

• GMS people lead healthier lives now - big strides in mortality (life expectancy, maternal, infant), large declines in undernourishment, modest containment of contagious diseases

• Thanks to better sanitation, cleaner drinking water, improved health care – in turn partly due to increased public investment in health

• GMS people better educated now – huge increases in literacy rate, student enrollment (especially in primary but also in secondary), and years of schooling

• GMS countries also making progress in social protection, gender equity, and women empowerment

• Despite the long distance travelled by GMS countries in human development, the distance to destination (say, a socially equitable society) is equally large

• That is true in many spheres of human development and social inclusion, but especially in health and education, as also in managing severe vulnerabilities

• Substantial human development – between 1995-2012, HDI increases of 35-41% range, excluding Thailand).

• GMS people lead healthier lives now - big strides in mortality (life expectancy, maternal, infant), large declines in undernourishment, modest containment of contagious diseases

• Thanks to better sanitation, cleaner drinking water, improved health care – in turn partly due to increased public investment in health

• GMS people better educated now – huge increases in literacy rate, student enrollment (especially in primary but also in secondary), and years of schooling

• GMS countries also making progress in social protection, gender equity, and women empowerment

• Despite the long distance travelled by GMS countries in human development, the distance to destination (say, a socially equitable society) is equally large

• That is true in many spheres of human development and social inclusion, but especially in health and education, as also in managing severe vulnerabilities

Page 7: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Main messages – governance and democratization

Main messages – governance and democratization

• Governance - difficult to measure - survey-based and perception based indicators the “gold standard” in empirical assessment

• By WB indicators, Thailand tops the list in most areas (except pol. stability)

• China at the top spot on govt. effectiveness but at the bottom in terms of voice and accountability

• Other countries share strengths (Cambodia in voice and accountability, Laos and Vietnam in political stability), and weakness ( Cambodia and Laos in rule of law and corruption, Laos and Vietnam in voice and accountability)

• Democratization indicators show mixed messages too – overall Thailand at the top , Laos at the bottom, and other countries with strengths and weaknesses

• Cambodia a good example of mixed progress in democratization - has strengths in electoral process, civil liberties, and govt. functioning, but does not compare well in political participation and culture.

• Significant scope for gradual institution-building and governance reforms – perhaps the most difficult and a highly sensitive issue for the GMS countries

• Governance - difficult to measure - survey-based and perception based indicators the “gold standard” in empirical assessment

• By WB indicators, Thailand tops the list in most areas (except pol. stability)

• China at the top spot on govt. effectiveness but at the bottom in terms of voice and accountability

• Other countries share strengths (Cambodia in voice and accountability, Laos and Vietnam in political stability), and weakness ( Cambodia and Laos in rule of law and corruption, Laos and Vietnam in voice and accountability)

• Democratization indicators show mixed messages too – overall Thailand at the top , Laos at the bottom, and other countries with strengths and weaknesses

• Cambodia a good example of mixed progress in democratization - has strengths in electoral process, civil liberties, and govt. functioning, but does not compare well in political participation and culture.

• Significant scope for gradual institution-building and governance reforms – perhaps the most difficult and a highly sensitive issue for the GMS countries

Page 8: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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GMS no exception to the “Impossible Trinity of Inclusiveness”

GMS no exception to the “Impossible Trinity of Inclusiveness”

“The political problem of mankind is to combine three things: economic

efficiency, social justice, and individual liberty”

(John Maynard Keynes, quoted in UNDP, Human Development Report,

2013, p.20)

“The political problem of mankind is to combine three things: economic

efficiency, social justice, and individual liberty”

(John Maynard Keynes, quoted in UNDP, Human Development Report,

2013, p.20)

Page 9: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Figure and TablesFigure and Tables

The main messages are drawn from the “Figures

and Tables” in the next 37 slides

The main messages are drawn from the “Figures

and Tables” in the next 37 slides

Page 10: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Catching up/income convergence - per capita income (PPP$ at 2005

prices)

Catching up/income convergence - per capita income (PPP$ at 2005

prices)

Country 1995 2011Multiples

(2011/1995)

Cambodia 811 2083 2.6

Laos 1114 2464 2.2

Vietnam 1231 3013 2.4

Thailand 5691 7635 1.3

China 1849 7418 4.0Source: World Bank – World Development Indicators dataset 2013

Page 11: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Structural convergence ? (% of GDP -constant prices – agri./ ind./ service) Structural convergence ? (% of GDP -constant prices – agri./ ind./ service)

Source: GMS-DAN country papers (2013)

Country Initial year Latest year

Cam (1993-2011) 46/13/35 25/27/41

Laos (19995-2010) 54/21/25 28/33/39

Vietnam (1999-2010) 32/25/43 16/42/42

Thai (1995-2009) 10/40/50 10/40/50

China(1993-2010) 20/46/34 10/47/43

Yunan (2000-2010) 20/43/37 15/43/42

Page 12: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Structural convergence ? (% of employment – agri./ ind./

service)

Structural convergence ? (% of employment – agri./ ind./

service)

Source: GMS-DAN country papers (2013)

Country Initial year Latest year

Cam (1993-2011) 80/2/17 62/10/28?

Laos (19995-2011) 85/4/11 72/8/20

Vietnam (1999-2010) 69/15/16 48/22/30

Thailand (1993-2011) 57/17/26 38/21/41

China(1993-2010) 56/23/21 36/28/36

Yunan (2000-2011) 74/9/17 59/13/28

Page 13: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Progress in poverty reduction - headcount % (National)

Progress in poverty reduction - headcount % (National)

Country Initial yr. Final yr. pp. per yr.

Cambodia (1993-2011) 45 19.8 -1.40

Laos (1993-2008) 46 27.6 -1.23

Vietnam (1998-2010) 37.4 14.2 -1.93

Thailand (1988-2010) 42.2 7.8 -1.56

China (2003-2010) 6.6 2 -0.66

Yunnan, China (2003-2008) 8.2 5.6 -0.52

Source: GMS-DAN country papers (2013)

Page 14: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Progress in poverty reduction - headcount % ($1.25-a-day)

Progress in poverty reduction - headcount % ($1.25-a-day)

Country Initial yr. Final yr. pp. per yr.

Cambodia (1994-2008) 48.6 22.8 -1.84

Laos (1992-2008) 55.7 33.9 -1.36

Vietnam (1993-2008) 63.7 16.9 -3.12

Thailand (1990-2009) 11.6 2 -0.51

China (1990-2008) 60.2 13.1 -2.62

Source: ADB 2012 – Myanmar in Transition; WB-WDI dataset 2013

Page 15: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Progress in poverty reduction headcount ($2-a-day)

Progress in poverty reduction headcount ($2-a-day)

Country Initial yr. Final yr. pp. per yr.

Cambodia (2004-2008) 68.2 53.3 -3.73

Laos (2002-2008) 76.9 66 -1.82

Vietnam (2006-2008) 48.4 43.4 -2.50

Thailand (2004-2009) 11.5 4.6 -1.38

China (1990-2008) 84.6 29.8 -3.04

China (2002-2008) 51.2 29.8 -3.57

Source: WB-WDI dataset 2013; WB-WDI 2010, 2012

Page 16: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Trends in economic inequality – consumption GINI

Trends in economic inequality – consumption GINI

Country Initial yr. Final yr. Change

Cambodia (1994-2011)** 38.3 31.0 -7.7

Laos (1992-2008)** 30.5 35.4 4.9

Vietnam (1993-2010)** 33 37.8 4.8

Thailand (1990-2010)** 44 39 -5.0

China (1990-2008)* 32.4 43.4 11.0

Sources: * data from ADB, Asian Development Outlook, 2012 ; ** data from GMS-DAN country papers 2013/or National sources

Page 17: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Trends in economic polarization - consumption share of top 20% over bottom

20% (Ratio)

Trends in economic polarization - consumption share of top 20% over bottom

20% (Ratio)

Country Initial yr. Final yr. Change

Cambodia (1994-2011)** 5.8 6.1 0.3

Laos (1992-2008)* 4.3 5.9 1.6

Vietnam (1992-2008)* 5.6 5.9 0.3

Thailand (1990-2009)* 8.8 7.1 -1.7

China (1990-2008)* 5.1 9.6 4.5

Source: *from ADB-Asian Development Outlook 2012; **from GMS-DAN country papers 2013/national sources

Page 18: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Trends in human development (HDI)

Trends in human development (HDI)

Country 1995 2012% Change in HDI 1995-2012

Cambodia 0.385 0.543 41.04

Laos 0.388 0.543 39.95

Vietnam 0.457 0.617 35.01

Thailand 0.581 0.690 18.76

China 0.518 0.699 35.02

Source: UNDP-Human Development Report 2010, 2013

Page 19: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Human development (Non-income HDI)

Human development (Non-income HDI)

Country Nonincome HDI 2012

Cambodia 0.597

Laos 0.584

Vietnam 0.686

Thailand 0.715

China 0.728

Source: UNDP-Human Development Report 2013

Page 20: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Trends in life expectancy at birth (years), 1994-2012

Trends in life expectancy at birth (years), 1994-2012

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

63.667.8

75.4 74.3 73.7

% change Latest yr.

% c

han

ge

Nu

mb

er

of

years

Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 2013

Page 21: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

21

Trends in healthy life expectancy (years), 1990-2010

Trends in healthy life expectancy (years), 1990-2010

Source: Lancet, 2012 (December) volume 380,, pp. 2144-62.

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

58 56

65.9 65.3 68

% Change Latest yr.

% c

han

ge

year(

s)

Page 22: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Trends in maternal mortality rate (per 100,000 live births), 1990/1999 -

2010

Trends in maternal mortality rate (per 100,000 live births), 1990/1999 -

2010

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China-80.0

0.0

80.0

160.0

240.0

320.0

400.0

480.0

-80

0

80

160

240

320

400

480

206

410

69

1232

% change Latest yr.

% c

han

ge

per

10

0,0

00

liv

e b

irth

s

Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 2013

Page 23: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

23

Trends in infant mortality (per 1000 live births), 1994-2011

Trends in infant mortality (per 1000 live births), 1994-2011

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China

-70.0

-50.0

-30.0

-10.0

10.0

30.0

50.0

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

5036 34

1711 13

% change Latest yr.

% c

han

ge

per

10

00

liv

e b

irth

s

Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 2013

Page 24: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

24

Trends in under-five mortality, (per 1000 live births), 1994-2011

Trends in under-five mortality, (per 1000 live births), 1994-2011

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

43 42

2212 15

% change Latest yr.

% c

han

ge

per

10

00

liv

e b

irth

s

Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 2013

Page 25: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Trends in undernourishment (% of population), 1990/1992 - 2006/2011Trends in undernourishment (% of

population), 1990/1992 - 2006/2011

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China

-90.0

-60.0

-30.0

0.0

30.0

-90

-60

-30

0

3017

28

9 712

% change Latest yr.

% c

han

ge

% o

f p

op

ula

tion

Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 2013

Page 26: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

26

Trends in the incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people),

1994-2011

Trends in the incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people),

1994-2011

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China-60.0

0.0

60.0

120.0

180.0

240.0

300.0

360.0

420.0

480.0

-60

0

60

120

180

240

300

360

420

480424

213 199

124

75

% change Latest yr.

% c

han

ge

per

10

0,0

00

peop

le

Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 2013

Page 27: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

27

Trends in the prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49), 1990/1999 - 2011Trends in the prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49), 1990/1999 - 2011

Source: World Bank – World Development Indicators 2013

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0

1

2

0.6

0.3

0.5

1.2

0.1

% point change Latest yr.

% p

oin

t ch

an

ge

% o

f p

op

ula

tion

ag

es

15

-49

Page 28: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Trends in access to improved water source (% of population with access),

1990/1994 - 2010

Trends in access to improved water source (% of population with access),

1990/1994 - 2010

Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 2013

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

64 67

95 96 91

Improved water source (% of population with access), 1990/1994 - 2010

% change Latest yr.

% c

han

ge

% o

f p

op

ula

tion

wit

h a

ccess

Page 29: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Trends in improved sanitation facilities (% of population with

access), 1990/1994 - 2010

Trends in improved sanitation facilities (% of population with

access), 1990/1994 - 2010

Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 2013

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

31

63

76

96

64

% change Latest yr.

% c

han

ge

% o

f p

op

ula

tion

wit

h a

ccess

Page 30: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total), 2006-2011

Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total), 2006-2011

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China0

20

40

60

80

100

120

71

37

93100 100

% o

f to

tal

Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 2013

Page 31: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

31

Trends in public expenditure on health

(% of GDP), 1998-2012

Trends in public expenditure on health

(% of GDP), 1998-2012

Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2.1

1.5

2.62.9

2.7

% point change Latest yr.

% p

oin

t ch

an

ge

% o

f G

DP

Page 32: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

32

Health gaps between the poor and the rich– big data gaps

Health gaps between the poor and the rich– big data gaps

CountryInfant

mortality rate

Under-5 mortality

rate

Diarrhea* (% of

children under age 5)

Acute Respiratory Infection

(ARI)**

Prevalence of child

malnutrition (underweight

)***

Pregnant women

receiving prenatal

care

Births attended by skilled

health staff

Cambodia (2010) 3.3 3.0 1.6 2.4 2.2 0.8 0.5

Laos (2006) NA NA 1.9 2.3 2.4 0.2 0.0

Vietnam (2006) NA NA NA NA NA 0.7 0.5

Thailand (2006) NA NA 1.7 2.1 3.8 1.0 0.9

China NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Note: *Percentage of children under five who had diarrhea in the two weeks preceding the survey; **Percentage of children under five with symtoms of ARI; ***for Cambodia, it is the percentage below -2 standard deviation (SD) from the WHO Child Growth Standards population median. It includes children who are below -3 SD.

Source: CDHS 2010; World Bank – WDI 2012, 2013

Page 33: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

33

Trends in youth literacy rate, total (of people ages 15-24), 1990 -

2005/2010

Trends in youth literacy rate, total (of people ages 15-24), 1990 -

2005/2010

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

75.00

80.00

85.00

90.00

95.00

100.00

105.00

87.13

83.93

96.9498.05

99.40

% change Latest yr.

% c

han

ge

of

peop

le a

ges

15

-24

Source: UNDP-HDR 2005, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2013, WDI dataset 2013

Page 34: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

34

Trends in adult literacy rate, total (% ages 15 and older), 1990 - 2005/2010

Trends in adult literacy rate, total (% ages 15 and older), 1990 - 2005/2010

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

77.6072.70

93.20 93.50 94.30

% change Latest yr.

% c

han

ge

% a

ges

15

an

d o

lder

Source: UNDP-HDR 2005, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2013, WDI dataset 2013

Page 35: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

35

Trends in primary school enrollment (% gross), 1990 - 2002/2011

Trends in primary school enrollment (% gross), 1990 - 2002/2011

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00127.00121.00

106.00

91.00

111.00

% change Latest yr.

% c

han

ge

% g

ross

Source: UNDP-HDR 2005, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2013, WDI dataset 2013

Page 36: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

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Trends in secondary school enrollment (% gross), 1990/1991 -

2002/2011

Trends in secondary school enrollment (% gross), 1990/1991 -

2002/2011

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

46.00 45.00

77.00 79.00 81.00

% change Latest yr.

% c

han

ge

% g

ross

Source: UNDP-HDR 2005, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2013, WDI dataset 2013

Page 37: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

37

Trends in tertiary education enrollment (% gross), 1990 -

2002/2011

Trends in tertiary education enrollment (% gross), 1990 -

2002/2011

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

1200.00

1400.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

7.80

13.40

22.30

47.70

25.90

% change Latest yr.

% c

han

ge

% g

ross

Source: UNDP-HDR 2005, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2013, WDI dataset 2013

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38

Mean years of schooling (years), 2010 and expected years of

schooling (years), 2011

Mean years of schooling (years), 2010 and expected years of

schooling (years), 2011

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

5.84.6

5.56.6

7.5

10.5 10.1

11.9 12.311.7

Mean years of schooling (years) Expected years of schooling (years)

year(

s)

Source: UNDP-Human Development Report 2013

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39

Trends in public expenditure on education, total (% of GDP),

1990/1999 – 2000/2011

Trends in public expenditure on education, total (% of GDP),

1990/1999 – 2000/2011

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

2.60

3.30

6.60

3.80

2.90

% point change Latest yr.

% p

oin

t ch

an

ge

% o

f G

DP

Note: The latest data for China is in 2000 (World Bank – WDI 2003)

Source: UNDP-HDR 2005; World Bank – WDI 2003, 2013, WDI dataset 2013

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40

Pupil-teacher ratio, primary, 1997/2000 - 2011

Pupil-teacher ratio, primary, 1997/2000 - 2011

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China

-40.00

-30.00

-20.00

-10.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

-40.00

-30.00

-20.00

-10.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

47.00

27.0020.00

0.00

17.00

% change Latest yr.

% c

han

ge

rati

o

Source: UNDP-HDR 2005, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2013, WDI dataset 2013

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41

Education gaps between the poor and the rich –big data gaps

Education gaps between the poor and the rich –big data gaps

Country Average years of schooling

Primary completion rate

Children out of school*

Cambodia (2010) 0.2 0.8 3.4

Laos - - -

Vietnam (2006) 0.7 1.0 1.5

Thailand - - -

China - - -

Source: CDHS 2010; World Bank – WDI 2012, 2013

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42

Social protection (index), 2009

Social protection (index), 2009

Country SPI SPIP SPINP SPIPFI

Cambodia 0.017 0.012 0.005 1.99

Laos 0.019 0.009 0.010 1.20

Vietnam 0.095 0.017 0.079 0.89

Thailand 0.119 0.030 0.089 1.01

China 0.139 0.008 0.130 0.79

Source: ADB, 2011, except for Thailand (ADB, 2012)

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43

Gender equity Gender equity

Country

Gender Inequality Index, 2012*

Gender Gap Index, 2012**

Discrimination against Women,

2012***

Rank Value* Rank Score**Rank out

of 86countries

SIGI score***

Cambodia 96 0.473 103 0.6457 13 0.1213

Laos 100 0.483 NA NA 49 0.2599

Vietnam 48 0.299 66 0.6867 43 0.2393

Thailand 66 0.360 65 0.6893 25 0.1475

China 35 0.213 69 0.6853 42 0.2388Note: * 0=when women and men fare equally and 1=where one gender fares as poorly as possible in all measured dimensions; ** the highest possible score is 1 (equality) and the lowest possible score is 0 (inequality); *** 0 = low discrimination, 1 = high discrimination

Source: 1. UNDP-HDR 2013; 2. WEF-The Global Gender Gap Index Report 2012; 3. OECD-SIGI, 2012

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44

Vulnerabilities (environmental) and multi-dimensional poverty index

(MDPI)

Vulnerabilities (environmental) and multi-dimensional poverty index

(MDPI)

Country

% Pop living on degraded

land

Deaths due to water

pollution (no. per million

people)

Deaths due to indoor

air pollution (no. per million people)

Deaths due to outdoor air pollution (no.

per million people)

Access to electricity (%

of population)*

Multidimensional poverty index (Year)

Year 2010 2004 2004 2004 2009-2011 -

Cambodia 39 826 500 23 37.6 0.212 (2010)

Laos 4 406 459 0 55 0.267 (2006)

Vietnam 8 72 289 81 97.60.017

(2010/2011)

Thailand 17 121 159 61 99.30.006

(2005/2006)

China 9 42 422 230 99.4 0.056 (2002)

Source: UNDP-Human Development Report 2010, 2011, 2013; *World Bank - World Development Indicators dataset 2013, except for Cambodia, national source (CSES 2011)

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45

Governance perception indicators - 2011

Governance perception indicators - 2011

Governance Indicator

Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China

2011 2011 2011 2011 2011

Voice and Accountability

24.9 5.6 8.5 33.3 4.7

Political Stability/Absence of Violence

33 47.2 52.8 16.5 25

Government Effectiveness

25.6 17.1 45 59.7 60.7

Regulatory Quality

35.1 19.4 29.4 56.4 45.5

Rule of Law 15.5 18.3 39.9 48.8 41.8

Control of Corruption

12.8 13.7 33.6 43.6 30.3

Source: http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/sc_country.asp, accessed June 1, 2013

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46

Democratization perception indicators - 2011

Democratization perception indicators - 2011

Country Rank Overall score

Electoral process

and pluralism

Functioning of

government

Political participation

Political

culture

Civil liberties

Cambodia 101 4.87 6.08 6.07 2.78 5 4.41

Laos 156 2.1 0 3.21 1.11 5 1.18

Vietnam 143 2.96 0 4.29 2.78 6.25 1.47

Thailand 58 6.55 7.83 6.07 5.56 6.25 7.06

China 141 3.14 0 5 3.89 5.63 1.18

Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit – Democracy Index 2011

Page 47: Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

47

Thank youThank you

IDRC, Canada provided financial support for this project

The views expressed here are not necessarily those of IDRC,

CDRI, or ADB

IDRC, Canada provided financial support for this project

The views expressed here are not necessarily those of IDRC,

CDRI, or ADB