Milestone Workshop 2: November 20, 2013

Eylon Shamir

eshamir@hrc-lab.org

Hydrologic Research Center (HRC), San Diego

Funded by, NOAA Climate and Societal Interactions Sectoral Applications Research Program

(SARP)

Groundwater, Climate and Stakeholder

Engagement (GCASE)https://wrrc.arizona.edu/GCASE

The Hydrologic Research Center is a public benefit

nonprofit organization.

HRC’s goal is to help bridge the gap between scientific

research and applications for the solution of important

societal problems that involve water.

Hydrologic Research Center

Upper Santa Cruz Groundwater Microbasins

Gretchen 2007, Groundwater Flow Model of the Santa Cruz Active

Management Area Microbasins International Boundary to Nogales

International Wastewater Treatment Plant Santa Cruz County,

Arizona AZDWR Modeling Report No. 15.

Hydrologic Projections: Space

Global General

Circulation

models

Regional

Mesoscale models

Watershed

Hydrologic Model

Climatological regional features:

• Spatial distribution of climatological

variables due to terrain and microclimate

• Special regional features

• Summer rainfall, snow

• Regional prevalent synoptic conditions

Climatological global circulation features:

• General climatology patterns ocean-land

• Pacific sea surface temperature and

relations to SW climatology

• Trade wind, atmospheric rivers etc.

• General climatology of temperature and

precip.

Watershed Hydrologic Model:

• Developed using local high resolution data

• Further refinement of microclimate features

• Interaction – surface –Groundwater

• Feedback with management decision

DOWNSCALE

INPUT

Winter / Summer

Wet Medium Dry

Inter-arrival time of clusters

(Generalized Pareto)

Duration of clusters

(Weibull)

Chance for hour rainfall

Hourly rainfall magnitude

(Log normal)

Fall / S

prin

g

Rainfall Generator of Likely precipitation events Developed from Hourly precipitation data

100 realizations of likely scenariosEach realization is 60-year of hourly rainfall

Regional Hydrological Modeling Framework

Groundwater Model [Microbasins]

Aquifer Thresholds

Depth to Water (DTW)

7216 cells 660x660 ft

Q1

I1 Q2 = Q1-I1Santa Cruz River

ET1

P1

Buena Vista(2740 ac/ft)

Kino Springs(4020 ac/ft)

Highway 82(5910 ac/ft)

Guevavi7950 (ac/ft)

Q1

I1 Q2 = Q1-I1Santa Cruz River

ET1ET1

P1

Buena Vista(2740 ac/ft)

Kino Springs(4020 ac/ft)

Highway 82(5910 ac/ft)

Guevavi7950 (ac/ft)

Buena Vista

Kino Springs

Hy 82

Guevavi

Depth to Water (DTW) Thresholds

Average depth of water table from the

land surface

10 ft - Storage of ~ 4,000 ac-feet

20 ft - Storage of ~ 7,300 ac-feet

30 ft - Storage of ~ 11,000 ac-feet

Groundwater flow model of the Santa Cruz Active Management Area Microbasins

International Boundary to Nogales International Wastewater Treatment Plant Santa Cruz

County, Arizona ADWR –Modeling Report No. 15. Erwin 2007

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Years

Ra

infa

ll (m

m/S

ea

so

n)

MPI Summer [July-September]

Seasonal

10-Yr Moving Avg.

Tercile Boundaries

Regional climate model output

Rainfall Generation

Model for Future

Likely Scenarios

Hydrologic Projections

Historic Future

Precipitation from Downscaled Regional

Climate Models UA Dept. Atmospheric Sciences

Dynamically (WRF) downscaled two climate models to 35 km2, 6-hour, 1950-2100, A2 emission

scenario (Middle of the road):

1. Hadley center (HADCAM3)

2. Max Planck Institute (MPI)

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

[NARCCAP] Multiple (6) models at 50km2 at 3hour resolution 1970-2000

and 2040-2070.

Projected Changes in Wetness Categories

SUMMER

- 7 models indicate higher frequency of dry summer

- 6 models indicate lesser frequency of wet summer

WINTER

- 8 models indicate higher frequency of dryer winter

- 6 models indicate higher frequency of wet winter

Clear reduction in Summer

Higher variability in Winter

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Years

Ra

infa

ll (m

m/S

ea

so

n)

MPI Summer [July-September]

Seasonal

10-Yr Moving Avg.

Tercile Boundaries

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 20800

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Years

Ra

infa

ll (m

m/S

ea

so

n)

MPI Winter [November-March]

Seasonal

10-Yr Moving Avg.

Tercile Boundaries

Climate Projection – Regional Climate Model WRF-Max Planck Institute model

Modeling Framework for Water Resources

Planning

Rainfall Scenarios

Aquifer

(microbasins)

Management

schemes

Streamflow

Groundwater recharge

Aquifer Withdrawal

Pumpage

Groundwater Thresholds

Microbasins

Potrero

Downstream

Arizona Department of Water Resources

Demand and Supply Assessment 1985-2025 Santa Cruz Active Management Area, July 2012 (DRAFT)

An

nu

al P

um

pin

g (

Acr

e-F

eet)

Projection

Municipal Pumpage Projection

Rainfall Scenarios

Aquifer

(microbasins)

Management

schemes

Streamflow

Groundwater recharge

Pumpage

Groundwater Threshold

Historic & Future

Rainfall

Scenarios

Three Pumpage

goal Scenarios:

2000, 3000, and

5000 Acre-Feet

per year

3 – DTW

Thresholds:

10, 20 & 30 ft

A Case Study

- Two rainfall input scenarios: Historic and Future - (an ensemble of 100 realizations of hourly record each

extends for 62 years)

- Three Depth to Water (DTW) threshold scenarios: 10ft, 20ft, and 30ft.

- Three Pumpage goal scenarios: 2000, 3000, and 5000 acre-feet per year

Total of 18 runs.

HISTORIC

Threshold DTW 20 ft

Pumpage Goal 3000 ac-ft/yr

FUTURE

Threshold DTW 20 ft

Pumpage Goal 3000 ac-ft/yr

Range

:

2750-

1750

ac-

ft/yr

90%Time pumpage goal is Equal or Exceeded (%)

Case Study - Example Results100 realizations each 62-Year

90%Time pumpage goal is Equal or Exceeded (%)

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Percent of Time Equal or Exceeded

Mic

rob

asin

s R

elia

bili

ty o

f P

um

pa

ge

(A

c-f

t/yr)

Varied Depth To Water (DTW), Annual Pumpage 3000 ac-ft

HIST. DTW 10ft

HIST. DTW 20ft

HIST. DTW 30ft

FUTURE. DTW 10ft

FUTURE. DTW 20ft

FUTURE. DTW 30ft

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Percent of Time Equal or Exceeded

Mic

rob

asin

s R

elia

bili

ty o

f P

um

pa

ge

(A

c-f

t/yr)

Varied Depth To Water (DTW), Annual Pumpage 3000 ac-ft

HIST. DTW 10ft

HIST. DTW 20ft

HIST. DTW 30ft

FUTURE. DTW 10ft

FUTURE. DTW 20ft

FUTURE. DTW 30ft

Median Estimates

Percent of Time pumpage goal is Equal or Exceeded

Case Study Results: Pumpage Reliability

Percent of Time pumpage goal is Equal or Exceeded

95 Percentile Estimates

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Percent of Time Equal or Exceeded

Mic

rob

asin

s R

elia

bili

ty o

f P

um

pag

e (

Ac-f

t/yr)

Historical, Depth To Water 10ft, Annual Pumpage 2000 ac-ft

median

5 & 95 Percentiles0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Percent of Time Equal or Exceeded M

icro

basin

s D

eficit o

f P

um

pa

ge

(A

c-f

t/yr)

Historical, Depth To Water 10ft, Annual Pumpage 2000 ac-ft

median

5 & 95 Percentiles

Another Example for Results Interpretation

Statement II

20% of the years the pumpage deficit will exceed ~400

ac ft at the median or 800 ac-ft at the 95% confidence

interval.

Statement I

80% of the years the pumpage will exceed ~1550 ac-ft at

the median or 1200 ac-ft at the 95% confidence interval.

Supply Reliability Considering 8 Regional Climate Models

Cumulative 62-year water deficit [100 likely realizations]

Historic Data

Pumpage goal 3000 ac-ft/yr; DTW 20ft

Future Projection

Pumpage goal 3000 ac-ft/yr; DTW 20ft

0 50 1000

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Cum

ula

tive D

eficit (

ac-f

t/62 y

r)

Pumpage 2000 ac-ft/yr

HIST. DTW 10ft

HIST. DTW 20ft

HIST. DTW 30ft

MPI FUTURE DTW 10ft

MPI FUTURE DTW 20ft

MPI FUTURE DTW 30ft

0 50 1000

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Cumulative Distribution

Pumpage 3000 ac-ft/yr

0 50 1000

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000Pumpage 5000 ac-ft/yr

Distribution of cumulative 62-year water deficit [18 case studies 100 realizations]

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Nogale

s F

low

(1000 A

cre

-feet)

Years

SUMMER [July-September]

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

WINTER [November-March]

Years

Nogale

s F

low

(1000 A

cre

-feet)

USGS Streamflow Gauge nr. Nogales, AZ

Avg.

7800 ac-ft

Avg.

7400

ac-ft

1 90 180 270 360

10

50

100 95-Percentile Historical/Future Annual Pumpage 5000 ac-ft

Buena Vista

Hist. 10ft

Hist. 20ft

Hist. 30ft

WRF-MPI 10ft

WRF-MPI 20ft

WRF-MPI 30ft

1 90 180 270 360

10

50

100

Kino Spring

1 90 180 270 360

10

50

100

Hy 82

N

um

ber

of E

vents

with D

eficit L

onger

Than (

Counts

)

n Number of Days 1 90 180 270 360

10

50

100

Guevavi

Aquifers’ Recovery Duration Frequency

Num

ber

of E

vents

with D

eficit L

onger

Than (

count)

Number of Days

95-Percentile Historic/Future

Annual Pumpage goal 5000 ac-ft/year

DTW 10ft DTW 20ft DTW 30ft0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Historical Precipitation 3000 ac-ft/yr

Buena Vista

Kino Springs

Hy 82

Guevavi

DTW 10ft DTW 20ft DTW 30ft0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Future Precipitation 3000 ac-ft/yr

P

erc

ent of T

ime M

icro

basin

s b

elo

w T

hre

shold

(fr

action)

Expected time for the microbasins to be below

Depth-to-Water Threshold

Maximizing Water Consumption

Historic Future Projection

Sharon Megdal, Susanna Eden and Jacob Prietto and Karletta

Chief. Water Resources Research Center University of

Arizona

Eylon Shamir, Konstantine Georgakakos and Nick Graham,

Hydrologic Research Center

Christopher Castro, Carlos Carrillo and Hsin-I Chang,

Atmospheric Science – University of Arizona

Keith Nelson, Frank Corkhill, Arizona Department of Water

Resources (ADWR)

Project’s Technical Advisory Committee: Mike Lacey

ADWR; Alejandro Barcenas City of Nogales; Greg

Kornrumph Salt River Project; and James Leenhouts, US

Geological Survey.

The GCASE Team