greenstreet berman

Research on a Risk Based Approach to Safety and

Prevention Programmes & Campaigns to Save Lives at

Sea

Greenstreet Berman Ltdwww.greenstreet.co.uk

Michael.wright@greenstreet.co.ukT: 020 3102 2117

Michael Wright, Paul Leach, Rebecca Canham, Abu Shahriyer, Shona Watson &

Trevor Stockwell

Study for the RNLI (2011-12)

greenstreet berman

Overview of work

• Stage 1: Assess coastal risks; • Stage 2: Evaluating RNLI’s

current coastal safety programmes;

• Stage 3: Developing a future coastal safety strategy.

greenstreet berman Water Accident

Incident Database (WAID)

• Minister for shipping launched WAID at the RoSPA water safety conference in November 2009

• First successful consolidation of drowning data

• MCA, RNLI, ROSPA, police etc pool data

• WAID started in 2007• Published 2009 fatality data

greenstreet berman WAID vs ONS

WAID • ~370 accidental inland

& coastal drownings each year in UK

• About 150 accidental coastal / at sea drowning per year in UK

• 155 suicides (& >100 uncertain)

• Mostly adult men

Office for National Statistics (2010)

• 217 accidental drowning

• 218 suicides

WAID, for the first time, provides a more valid count of accidental drowning...although BSAC have reported diving deaths since 1965 and MAIB publish commercial deaths at sea

greenstreet berman

Accidental coastal drowning per activity pa (2006-2009)

13.0

12.5

3.5

2.5

2.0

4.8

0.35.0

1.31.0

3.8

3.8

14.3

1.30.5

15.0

4.0

17.5

3.17

10.5

7.0

Commercial fishing

Sailing

Angling from boat

Motorboating

Dinghy

Boating

Competitive racing

Motor vehicle

PWC

Windsurfing

Canoeing & Kayaking

Climbing/Cliff/Coasteer

Sub Aqua

Surfing

Kitesurfing

Swimming

Jumping/diving in

Walking

Angling from shore

Waterside activity/playing

Other

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Some comparisons (inland & coastal)

• 10 people drown every week in June to August in the UK – 4 at sea.

0200400600800

100012001400160018002000220024002600280030003200340036003800

Accidental deaths(2010)

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Risk criteria

Rates of death of below one in one million people

Risks are broadly acceptable (negligible)

Risks are tolerable but should be reduced as far as reasonably practicable

Rates of death of above 1 in 1000 for workers and 1 in 10,000 for members of the public

Risks are intolerable and must be reduced

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Coastal rates of accidental drowning by activity

1.0E-061.0E-051.0E-041.0E-03

Waterside activity

Surfing

Coastal walking …

Swimming (outdoor)

Personal water craft

Windsurfing

Angling from shore

Motorboating

Kite surfing

Angling from boat

Manually powered

Climbing/cliff

Sailing & motorboating

Sailing (Dinghy, yacht, …

Sub aqua

Commercial fishing

Fatality rate per personLow riskVery high risk

?

?

?

HSE criteria for intolerable risk

to the public

Cycling fatality rate

Driving fatality rate Accidental fire

death in the homeGliding fatality rate

Motorcycling fatality rate

HSE criteria for negligible

risk to the public

?

greenstreet berman Data sources

• Deaths– Commercial fishing & merchant navy = MAIB– Diving = BSAC– Other = WAID and 2006 to 2008 data from

MCA, ROSPA and RNLI• Participation

– Commercial fishing and merchant navy = Marine Management Organisation & ONS employment data

– Other adults = Arkenford survey– Diving = Arkenford survey and BSAC– Children = ONS

• Comparators– DfT, DCLG, ONS, HSE, FSA

greenstreet berman Some observations of coastal

drowning

• Men are 90% of deaths• Men are main participants in

higher risk activities• Higher male rates of death per

activity

greenstreet berman Coastal child rates of death and

lives saved (2009)

• All activities assumes 4.4m boys and 4.2m girls (aged 5 to 16)

• Beach assumes 2.7m boys and 2.7m girls• 2 deaths and 176 rescues

1.0E-051.0E-041.0E-03

All activities

Beach activities

Rate of death per child

Girls

Boys

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Societal risk – lives saved (by lifeboats)

greenstreet berman Trends in total coastal deaths

(2006-2010) All activities

• No discernible trend

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Accidental fatal drownings (UK) at sea

Average = 152

greenstreet berman Trends in total coastal deaths (2006-

2009) All leisure activities

• Majority of the year on year changes in the number of deaths (across all leisure activities) attributed to number of water sports and leisure participants and the average summer sea surface temperature;

• No evidence of a decline in coastal accidental drowning.

R² = 0.91

0.76

0.78

0.80

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.90

0.92

16.20 16.30 16.40 16.50 16.60 16.70 16.80 16.90

Leisure fatality rate per million leisure events

Average Weymouth summer surface sea temperature

R² = 0.6188

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

15000000 17000000 19000000 21000000

Accidental fatal drownings in coastal water

leisure activities

Number of leisure participants

greenstreet berman Nature of drowning

• Cold water shock (first few minutes)– Heart attacks (increased blood flow & hydrostatic

pressure)– Hyperventilation – uncontrollable gulping down of

water– High risk to everyone if below 15Oc but possible if

~20oC or more (depends on age, physique, acclimatisation)

– 150 mls of water can kill• Swim failure (after about 10 minutes) due to loss of

control of arms and legs• Hypothermia (sets in after 30 minutes or so – die in

hours) - depends on– Water temperature, – Body mass, – Level of immersion and – Clothing

• Cold water cited as a factor in some incident reports

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Example of UK sea surface temperature (2000-09)

• 5 out of 9 June’s & October SSW temperature below 15 degree C

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Weymouth average sea surface water

temperature (degree C)

Heightened risk of cold water shock

greenstreet berman Trend in RNLI rescues of

sailing and boating vessels

• More sailing and motor boat incidents vessel incidents per year• Sports participation survey suggests decline in sailing & boating

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Rate per 1000 participants

greenstreet berman Sub Aqua fatality rates

• Cannot estimate trends for non-BSAC divers without participation data

• Would need to control for number of dives by type of certification

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Deaths

per

million

BSAC

members

UK deaths per million BSAC members 3 per. Mov. Avg. (UK deaths per million BSAC members)

2011

greenstreet berman UK commercial fishermen rate of

death

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Rate of death per million commercial fishermen

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Coastal water suicides

• WAID indicated 71 suspected suicides in 2009 at coast/ shore/beach/ harbour locations.

• Suspected self-harm accounted for 604 RNLI lifeboat incidents per year on average

• 30 lives saved per year by RNLI

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Typical causes of fatal coastal accidents

• Underestimate vulnerability, fatigue, impact of cold water etc– Swim failure in ten minutes

• Over estimate own ability– Believe can self rescue if fall overboard

• Fail to understand hazards– Rip currents faster than Olympic swimmers

• Inexperience– Cannot control kite surf

• Behavioural norms– Failure to wear lifejackets

• i.e mostly knowledge, perceptions, attitudes and behaviours (& health status)

greenstreet berman Impact of safety promotion

elsewhere• About 30% decline in Australian coastal

drowning between 2004/05 and 2010/11 following from lifeguards, beach safety promotion, lifejackets campaigns etc;

• 70% reduction in Alaskan fishermen deaths since 1990’s;

• 70% reduction in Irish commercial fishing drowning in 2000’s.

• UK fire deaths in the home fell by 33% in 2000’s;

• 44% fall in road deaths and serious injuries in UK in 2000’s.

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Features of successful interventions

• Set targets for fewer deaths and injuries;• Significant levels of safety promotion;• Multiple methods - mass media, safety codes,

face to face, schools education, incident follow up and so on;

• Achieve in minds of people:– Conscious of the risk (enough to motivate

behaviour change);– Understand how hazard causes harm;– Understand how safety measures prevent

specific causes of harm;– Confidence in ability to follow safety advice;– Consider safe practice to be the norm.

• Focused on specific issues, e.g. Smoke alarms;• Sustained over many years.

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Evaluation of current RNLI safety promotion activities

• Need to:– Define targets & aims – Increase volume of engagement for all

sports, leisure and commercial activities to have a measureable impact

– Raise awareness, risk perceptions & concern about risk of drowning

– Increase understanding of water hazards (cold shock, swim failure, rip currents etc)

– Focus on causes of drowning in each activity

– Make safety the norm

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Example actions being considered

1. Review, revise and re-issue safety guidance:– Compare to incident causes & factors– Good practice comparison– Expert review

2. Improve information provision – signage on beaches, wind/current information APPs, local guides, Point of sale etc;

3. Risk communications – editorials, press releases, radio/TV interviews, Youtube clips etc;

4. Preventative actions – face to face engagement, talks at clubs, site visits, zoning;

5. Incident follow up – talks at local clubs, safety alerts, individual advice for rescued persons;

6. Schools & other education.

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Next steps• Consider implications of risk

assessment• Consult sports governing bodies, MCA,

ROSPA and others• Consider future strategy & the case for

a National Water Safety Strategy • Consider whether a multi agency

scheme would be appropriate to develop & deliver a national campaign?

• Review, revamp and re launch coastal safety promotion schemes