greenmobility · 2020-01-15 · greenmobility is geared to the mid-distance traveller. the...

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

GreenMobility

Reason: Initiating coverage

A ticket of admission to sustainable movement

Mobility services will change urban planning development

Strong underlying market CAGR of 30% (’19e-’30e)

We like high ambitions and ESG exposure – BUY

Sustainability and flexibility drive the equity story

GreenMobility, a First North Nasdaq-listed supplier of electric cars for

flexible rental, has operated in Denmark since 2016. It now has 400 city

cars in the Copenhagen area and (with a new franchise agreement in

Oslo with NSB) 650 cars in total as of the start of 2019. The company

seeks to expand its international presence by closing more franchise

contracts. Its current objective is to reach another 15+ cities by 2021,

with ~635,000 customers (vs. 40,000 in 2018). GreenMobility recently

raised DKK 35m via a share issue to finance its strategic objectives. We

project sales and corresponding earnings to be in line with the

company’s 2021 strategic objectives, based on an 8% franchise fee. We

find a profitable setup in Copenhagen this year and believe that in order

to finance the company’s goals, it will need to raise additional capital.

Strong underlying market (CAGR ~30%) with big players

We expect the mobility market to grow by a CAGR of ~30% (2019e-

2030e), reflecting a strong market driven by three global megatrends:

urbanisation, sustainability and economics. The company seeks to meet

the expected demand for environmentally friendly city cars, which

continues to increase in Europe and is currently catered to by BMW, VW

and Daimler.

We like the company’s long-term plans, initiate with BUY

We value the company on a DCF basis (WACC: 11.3%, beta 1.8, LT

sales 30% and LT EBITA of 10%), and a peer analysis of rental and

traditional car companies (0.6x EV/sales ’21e/7.4x EV/EBITDA ’21e). In

addition, we have analysed M&A activity in the space, which we have

included given our assessment of a ~7.5% chance that the company will

become an acquisition target. We arrive at a 12-month target price of

DKK 120, and initiate with a BUY. We believe that current trading levels

represent an attractive entry-point, where announcements of the

company’s franchise agreements expected soon are the triggers.

03/05/2019

Performance

Equity Research - 06 May 2019 06:52 CET

DKKm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Sales 14 26 34 50 83

EBITDA -25 -25 -18 -10 9

EBITDA margin (%) -173.4 -96.1 -51.1 -19.6 10.6

EBIT adj -32 -32 -24 -16 4

EBIT adj margin (%) -222.0 -123.5 -70.7 -32.1 4.3

Pretax profit -33 -33 -25 -17 2

EPS rep 0 -21.46 -13.05 -8.36 0.73

EPS adj 0 -21.46 -13.05 -8.36 0.73

Sales growth (%) 3,400.5 81.2 33.4 44.5 67.9

EPS growth (%) na high 39.2 36.0 108.8

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

Lead analyst: [email protected], +45 35 46 30 12

[email protected], +45 35 46 30 19

Share price (DKK) 91.0

Target price (na) 120.0

Transportation, Denmark

GREENM.CO/GREENM DC

MCap (DKKm) 186

MCap (EURm) 24.9

Net debt (EURm) 4

No. of shares (m) 2.0

Free float (%) 43.0

Av. daily volume (k) 0.4

Next event Q2 report: 15 Aug

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Greenmobility OMX CPGN PI

1m 3m 12m

Absolute (%) -2.2 -15.7 -37.2

OMX CPGN PI (%) -1.1 6.0 1.7

Source: FactSet

2019e 2020e 2021e

P/E (x) -7.0 -10.9 124.0

P/E adj (x) -7.0 -10.9 124.0

P/BVPS (x) 41.73 nm nm

EV/EBITDA (x) -12.1 -23.4 26.2

EV/EBIT adj (x) -8.7 -14.3 64.7

EV/sales (x) 6.18 4.60 2.76

ROE adj (%) -2,772.6 418.3 -22.0

Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0

FCF yield (%) -13.6 -8.6 -0.7

Net IB debt/EBITDA -1.6 -4.4 5.0

Greenmobility

6 May 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 2

Geographical breakdown, sales, DKKm


Business area breakdown, sales, DKKm


Quarterly sales and adj. EBIT DKKm


OpportunitiesThe underlying market is healthy and projected to remain

strong. Environmentally-friendly flexible car rental is

enjoying impressive growth, and users have already began

to replace their personal vehicles. The success of

GreenMobility is dependent on its ability to engage in

franchise agreements on the same scale as its recent

collaboration with NSB in Oslo. The company has high

ambitions to reach ~450,000 customers with full potential

of 1.4m and increase its presence by an additional 15

cities by 2021. In the long-run, GreenMobility wants to

explore options to connect its car batteries to the power

grid, which looks attractive.

RisksThe established car companies Daimler, BMW and Fiat

own the three largest competitors. In addition, VW recently

announced plans to enter the market. The underlying

market is growing, but if GreenMobility’s franchise model

does not create the traction desired, the company will not

be able to expand organically without large capital

injections.

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Company descriptionGreenMobility is a flexible (“free float”) city-car rental

company. DNB Bank finances the leasing of Renault Zoe

cars, which are fitted with tailored software that allows

users to open and rent cars using their mobile phones.

With a proven 400-car concept in Copenhagen,

GreenMobility has begun a franchising scheme, and

recently launched its first concept in Oslo. The company

has so far enjoyed impressive user traction and is

attempting to expand its franchise model to 15 cities by

2021. GreenMobility has operated since 2016 and is listed

on Nasdaq First North.

Greenmobility


Table of contents

Investment case ........................................................................................... 4

A robust shared mobility franchisor............................................................... 7

Can car sharing replace car sales? ............................................................ 11

Current electric car penetration .................................................................. 16

Geographical expansion ............................................................................. 18

Forecasts ................................................................................................... 20

Capital structure ratios ................................................................................ 24

Valuation .................................................................................................... 25

Risks .......................................................................................................... 28

Shareholder structure ................................................................................. 29

Management & Board................................................................................. 30

Greenmobility


Investment case

GreenMobility is the only stock market listed car-sharing company (besides the

small 4Mobility in Poland) that affords investors the opportunity to gain exposure

to a CAGR 30% market, where consumers are adapting their transportation habits

to include car sharing. GreenMobility is already present in two markets

(Copenhagen and Oslo), and is looking to expand to 15+ cities by 2021. Given its

recent share emission and our strategic review, we find this target plausible. We

have created a scenario analysis, however, based on the potential traction to be

gained in the various markets. Our base case envisages ~630,000 customers by

2021e with ~3,000 cars. Based on these assumptions in our SOTP valuation, we

set a target price of DKK 120 and initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation.

50% of car owners can save money through shared mobility From a strategic perspective, mobility is separated into three options: short-distance

(scooters, bicycles and walking), mid-distance (cars and car mobility) and long-

distance (trains) transportation. Urbanised cities need a mix of all three, where

GreenMobility is geared to the mid-distance traveller. The underlying market for

flexible mid-size mobility services in Europe is strong. According to studies by the

Boston Consulting Group1, Berg Insight2 and McKinsey Consulting3, it makes sense

for 50% of car owners to replace their car with flexible mobility options.

In cities such as Barcelona, Berlin and Copenhagen, which have a concentrated

mobility market, there are already signs that 5-10% of car owners are selling their

cars in favour of mobility options according to the studied listed above and that

significantly more are considering this.

Strong underlying market Given the strong underlying market, there has been a consolidation of mobility

options, most notably the merger in March 2018 between Car2Go (Daimler) and

DriveNow (BMW), which now owns 66% of the European flexible mobility fleet.

There are ~12 large mobility players on the European market, and GreenMobility is

the only listed company.

1 BCG. (2016). What’s ahead for car sharing? 2 McKinsey & Company (2016). Automotive revolution – perspective towards 2030. 3 Berg Insights (2018). The Carsharing Telematics Market.

Economic sense: ~50% of drivers should switch to using shared mobility

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, BCG

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24,500 km

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46% drive less than 12,500km



Greenmobility


Long term, we acknowledge a consolidated market; however, in the short to mid-

term, there is a general high underlying consumer demand where only the “first-

mover” consumers have entered the market. As it matures, we believe the

European target group will expand from ~2.5m people today to 80% of the 10m

people (x3.2 to ~8m 20-29 year old people) that live in the top 37 ‘most mobile’

cities in Europe in terms of the number of people cross-correlated with the GDP per

capita and concentration of them per square kilometre.

GreenMobility’s objectives GreenMobility is only active in two cities, own operations in Copenhagen and has a

franchise with NSB in Oslo. With a strong brand, however, the company wants to

explore franchise, joint-venture and/or initiate other forms of partnerships

(henceforth “franchise”) to introduce its concept to the rest of Europe. It has already

entered into several discussions with public transportation companies, and

companies with similar offerings, seeking exposure to a larger customer group. We

project EBIT margin of 4% for 2021e, given the ongoing expansion of activities into

+15 cities. In 2019, the company guides for 3-4 new city agreements, where we

estimate 3 agreements and for 2020 it guides for another 3-4 cities, where we

estimate 5 agreements. This will equate to 10 of its 15+ cities by the end of 2020.

In our base case, we expect the company to have ~635,000 customers by 2021e,

with 2,955 cars in total and a base customer traction of 2.9 trips annually per

customer, with 27 minutes driven. We estimate that the price of minutes will

increase by 23% a year to DKK 2.9 (ex. VAT) by 2021e.

Valuation methodologies: Peers, M&A and DCF We base our valuation on a successful implementation of GreenMobility’s

objectives. We have valued GreenMobility in three stages. First, we have evaluated

the EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA trading levels of car-sharing company, Lyft, rental car

companies (e.g. Avis, Hertz) and traditional car companies (e.g. Tesla, VW, BMW,

and Daimler) and have taken the median summary EV of our expected DKK 9m

EBITDA estimate for 2021e earnings and DKK 83m for 2019 sales.

In addition, we have analysed the major M&A transactions in the mobility space

over the past five years, where we have witnessed a significant brand premium

enterprise value paid relative to the number of cars that the target companies have

operated. With an estimated 7.5% likelihood of takeover, we have included this

high-value premium in our estimates.

Last, our DCF model applies a WACC of 11.3% beta 1.8 (extra risk 2.5%) and LT

sales growth of 30% (this GreenMobility strives for) with LT EBITA margin of 10%.

Greenmobility


SOTP valuation

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

ABGSCe valuation - 2021e Peers EV Multiple Estimate Value

Rental car companies 1.0x 83 79

Traditional car companies 0.3x 83 24

Lyft Inc. 4.0x 83 334

Mean EV/Sales 0.6x 145



Mean EV/EBITDA 7.4x 65

ABGSCe valuation - 2021e SOTP

M&A Transaction value* 0.4x

No. Cars 2,955

M&A TV 1,229

NPV Time adjustment factor -0.87

NPV EV (Peers/M&A 85/15), DKK 237

- NIBD -27

SOTP EQ, DKK 210

Oustanding shares (m) 2.04

SOTP, DKK 103

DCF value per share (WACC: 11.3%), DKK 111

PV (SOTP 50%, DCF 50%), DKK 107

FV 12 month time adjustment factor 1.13

Target Price, DKK 120

* Historically M&A transaction EV by no. Cars

Valuation sensitivity to LT assumptions


110.93

119.67 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 50%

0% -24 -23 -21 -19 -17 -16 -14 -12 54

10% -14 -10 -6 -2 2 7 11 15 166

20% 6 15 24 34 43 52 61 70 405

30% 43 62 81 101 120 139 158 177 886

40% 107 146 184 223 262 301 340 378 1,815

50% 213 288 364 439 515 590 666 741 3,533

60% 383 525 666 807 948 1,089 1,230 1,372 6,595

70% 649 904 1,159 1,414 1,669 1,924 2,179 2,434 11,872

LT (10Y) EBITA margin

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Greenmobility


A robust shared mobility franchisor

GreenMobility has a proven concept in the Copenhagen and Oslo car sharing

markets. Its operations in Oslo are its first franchise concept, and the company

expects to create at least 10-15 similar deals by 2021. GreenMobility says it is

already in preliminary negotiations with potential franchisees, including

companies that already have a large customer base, such as public

transportation companies. GreenMobility only operates 650 cars, a number which

we expect to increase five-fold to 3,000 cars, in order to reach the company’s

2021 ambitions.

Investor exposure to the growing car sharing market GreenMobility is a Nasdaq-listed supplier of electric cars for flexible rental, and has

operated in Denmark since 2016. It currently has 400 city cars in the Copenhagen

area and (with its recent franchise agreement in Oslo) 650 cars in total. The

company is seeking to expand its international presence by entering into more

leasing contracts. Its current objective is to reach another 15+ cities before 2021.

A proven mobility company Drivers in GreenMobility’s cars are charged by the minute or by pre-set subscription,

and the vehicles can be dropped off anywhere in the ‘home zone,’ which covers a

majority of the Copenhagen city centre. The core service is available via four core

products:

City Car Go, which is a pay as you go product (DKK 4/minute).

Prepaid minutes, 200 prepaid minutes for DKK 420 (corresponding to DKK

2.10/minute).

City Car Flex, which is a fixed rate for daily rentals (DKK 595).

City Car Plus, which is an offering that provides 20 hours of free usage for a

fixed rate (DKK 1,195/month).

Parking, power and basic insurance are included in the fee. GreenMobility optimises

the operation by using a designated street crew that handles charging, cleaning and

relocation of the cars. It operates several charging spots in Copenhagen, which are

mobility hubs that gather available cars and provide designated parking spots,

similar to station-based car sharing.

When a customer wants to rent a GreenMobility car, he/she will reserve it on the

app for 30 minutes. This has been a challenge for GreenMobility, where in mid-

GreenMobility leases 650 Renault Zoes, consumer-accessed by an app


Greenmobility


2018, one-third of reservations did not result in a trip. Therefore, it has initiated a fee

where after the first 30 minutes of reservation, the fee is DKK 1 per minute.

According to the company, this has already shown positive results and now only

20% of reservations did not result in a trip.

Fleet of electric Renault Zoes GreenMobility leases Renault Zoe-models with high specifications via Autolease (a

subsidiary of DNB Bank ASA). The cars are accessed via an app, have automatic

transmissions and come with a GPS. In addition, the vehicles have an emergency

call button, allowing the car’s system to call GreenMobility support for any problems

and enquiries. The system itself is developed (and leased) from the French

company Vulog. The company is open to exploring other vehicle types.

The leasing contracts on the cars are fixed for four years, and will thus expire in

Copenhagen between August and December of 2020. The cars are fitted with EUR

~400-800 of custom hardware and depreciate over the four years at ~DKK 3,000 a

year. GreenMobility gradually updated its fleet with newer vehicles. According to the

company, it is able negotiate more favourable prices and attract higher performing

cars. Battery life in particular is an element that GreenMobility is looking to improve.

Flexible customer interaction with a pay-per-minute model

Customers can locate a GreenMobility car at a desired place via an app, and have

previously registered their information (including driving license). Customers pay per

minute and must park the car within the city’s zone limits following completion of the

journey. Since its launch in 2016, GreenMobility has replaced 30-40 of its initial 400

cars. This is typically due to technical issues and some customer mismanagement.

GreenMobility’s quarterly sales and EBIT (DKKm)


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Greenmobility


Operational activities GreenMobility has a centralised fleet management service. Each car receives a

service every 3.5 days, consisting of cleaning, powering up the battery and any

issues related to customer complaints about a particular car. This activity is

conducted by so-called “runners”. They are 75% part-time staff (and mostly

students) who receive a checklist on which activities to conduct. GreenMobility

attempts to have customers help with the process of powering batteries by offering

them incentives.

The checklist is data-driven, which is part of the package that GreenMobility

supplies to its franchisees. GreenMobility aims to reduce its part-time staff by

creating incentives for customers to charge their cars once a trip has finalised. This

has so far been successful in reducing its administration expenses (relative to sales)

by ~20pp in Q1’19. The company has said that some senior customers have taken it

as a hobby to charge GreenMobility cars and transfer their incentive points to their

family members.

Franchise model GreenMobility wants to expand into 15+ cities, and to have ~500,000 customers by

2021. To achieve this, it wants to attract franchise takers that either have exposure

to a large customer network or perhaps have already engaged in transportation

activities (such as public transportation). The brand is trademarked, but a title can

be added to the logo, e.g. in Europe “GreenMobility – services by NSB”.

Charging

GreenMobility operates its own ‘hotspots,’ which are locations with easy access to

parking and charging facilities. The hotspots are fitted with 22 KW charging stations,

which can charge the car in less than hour. Typical charging stations are three times

longer.

In addition, GreenMobility has parking space collaborations with Q-park and

APCOA, through which franchise customers can access parking. NSB in Norway

has begun similar hotspot operations, investing DKK 350,000 in related

infrastructure.

Number of customers is steadily increasing but usage is decreasing per customer (group level)


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Greenmobility


Data options In February 2019, the Danish Technical University (DTU), Sweco and the Danish

road directorate (responsible for the Danish roads) announced, with GreenMobility,

a project where its data-collecting installations were implemented in their cars in

Copenhagen.

The intention is to collect data to better restore roads in critical areas. GreenMobility

collects a large amount of data and, in addition, aims to be a data supplier to

various private and public institutions in a similar way. In the long-run, the company

wants to explore options regarding co-generation and joining the battery of cars on

a vehicle grid. We will follow this process accordingly.

Customer success During the past two years, GreenMobility has managed to increase its customer

base five-fold. According to an internal study named “Din Bybil feedback”, the

company has achieved an 89% ‘satisfactory’ rating. Sixteen percent of customers

say that they would consider giving up their own vehicle in favour of GreenMobility.

Four and a half percent say that they have already sold their cars in favour of the

fleet4. GreenMobility states that 20-25% of its customers are monthly users, and

70% are men. The majority of customers are in their 20s and live in the city.

4 The “din Bybil feedback” is a survey supplied to analysts, journalists and interested parties on request.

Greenmobility


Can car sharing replace car sales?

A new wave of peer-to-peer, access-driven services and businesses are

shaking up established business models. The sharing economy represents a

paradigm shift in how consumers and businesses look at ownership and

consumption. The concept uses Internet technologies to connect groups of

people and enterprises online, so that property, services, skills and other

resources can be shared and put to better use. The automotive and personal

mobility service sectors have long been a key part of the sharing economy,

with services like car sharing, carpooling, ridesharing and ride-sourcing. We

expect the market to account for 23% of new vehicle sales by 2030e,

corresponding to a CAGR of 30%.

Urbanisation and sustainability drive the market The car sharing market is driven by three global megatrends: urbanisation,

sustainability and economics. GreenMobility seeks to meet the expected demand

for environmentally friendly city cars, which continues to increase in Europe. The

company offers easy, convenient, and sustainable transportation to customers who

want flexibility.

The city cars are located, reserved and unlocked using a ‘Bybil’ app, and the

customers pay per minute to use the car. GreenMobility operates with a “free float

vehicle” model, so that customers can leave the car within a specified zone once

their journey is completed.

Current mobility options need to be consolidated GreenMobility is one of two listed companies exposed to the car sharing market,

with a CAGR of 30% from 2018-2030e. Demand is driven by urbanisation, with less

cars (per capita) expected in cities, along with the global focus on sustainability and

technological innovation. There are major car manufacturers in the industry, where

Daimler and BMW recently merged their operations. On 16 November, Volkswagen

Samples of the current shared mobility landscape

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, BerginSights

Greenmobility


announced that it would invest EUR ~44bn in e-mobility, autonomous driving, new

mobility services and digitalisation of plants through 2023.5 We believe this is a sign

that the traditional car manufacturers acknowledge the reduction in car sales and

subsequent alternative solutions.

Current offerings by shared mobility companies

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Rambøll

Investor exposure to a CAGR 30% market (2018-2030e) Car sharing is a growth industry. Estimates from McKinsey6 consulting projects

indicate that the shared automobile mobility market will account for up to 23% of

new vehicle sales by 2030, and should grow with a CAGR of ~30% for the next 12

years. One growth driver is the advanced technology that makes it practical to rent

cars relatively impulsively. A study by the University of California (UCLA)7 found that

cars are parked 95% of the time, on average, motivating the use of ride-hailing

services like Uber, autonomous vehicles and shared mobility.

Based on the number of cars and users, we multiply GreenMobility’s ratios of

revenue per customer and revenue per vehicle. On the basis of these estimates, we

assess the global value of the car sharing market to be worth DKK 12.4bn. We

expect that to double by 2021. GreenMobility currently holds ~1% of the total

market.

5 https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2018/11/VW_Group_investing_in_future.html 6 McKinsey & Company (2016). Automotive revolution – perspective towards 2030. 7 http://shoup.bol.ucla.edu/PayAsYouPark.htm

Currently ~6m global users of mobility with access to ~86,000 vehicles


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Greenmobility


Does it make financial sense to replace cars? The city of Munich sponsored a comprehensive study to evaluate how consumers

feel about switching their private vehicles in favour of shared mobility options. In that

city, the trend is quite clear. Roughly 15% have already given up their cars, ~42%

chose not to purchase a car when shared mobility became popular, and ~26% are

considering giving up their car.

Typically, the less a person uses their car, the less it makes sense to own a private

vehicle, in terms of flexibility and total price. It is estimated that the break-even point

for a small vehicle comes when it is driven less than 7,500km/year (16,000km/year

for an average midsize car).

To find the break-even point for the percent of car owners vs. how many km they

drive a year, BCG estimates show that it does not make economic sense for ~50%

of car owners to give up their cars in favour of a shared mobility option. From an

economic perspective, it does make sense for the vast majority of small car owners

to replace their cars. Owners of large cars, however, may own large cars due to the

space needed to transport family members and various goods. Therefore, small

Shared mobility users in Munich were asked if they would give up their cars

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, City of Munich, evaluation of car sharing report

When does it make sense to replace your car with car sharing?


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Gave up a car Chose not to purchase a car Can imagine giving up a car

DriveNow Car2go Fkinkster Clteecar

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24,500 km

16,000 km

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7,500 km

Greenmobility


shared mobility cars may not satisfy their needs. We therefore believe that a truer

number is ~20%.

Copenhagen ~ a sweet spot of 325,000 potential customers A car sharing report, sponsored by Copenhagen municipality in collaboration with

Rambøll, looked at the core target group for car sharing in Copenhagen. Sixty

percent of potential customers are below the age of 30, and 80% are men. Two-

thirds of them have an advanced education (bachelor plus masters) and live in the

municipalities of Frederiksberg and Copenhagen. This target group is in line with

what GreenMobility has communicated.

Copenhagen was GreenMobility’s first market, and the company says it will be the

only market it will operate itself (as opposed to a franchisee). It may explore satellite

cities around Copenhagen or in Denmark which can require additional cars and a

low cost setup. Copenhagen has a green agenda, but the company has faced

issues with parking restrictions. Those are expected to be removed in 2019,

however, saving the company an estimated DKK 4m a year in parking licenses.

% of car owners that should change their car (break-even)


Market segments in Denmark


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Dis

tance d

riven /

year (k

m)

% DriversCity Car Compact car Midsize car Large car

17% drive less than 7 ,500km




Citycars

(B2C/B2B)

Traditional car

sharing (B2C/B2B)

P2P Car

sharing

ExamplesGreenmobility,

DriveNowLetsGo, Hertz SnappCar, GoMore

Who drives? Customer drives Customer drives Customer drives

Car ow ned by Company Company Privateperson

Parking follow ing rentFree Float (HotSpots

and public parking)

Fixed float (f ixed

parking spots)

At privateperson's

residence

Typical rental duration Minutes Hours / Day(s) Day(s)

Payment based on Time Time + Usage +

distance + subscription

Time + Usage +

subscription

Greenmobility


Room to grow beyond the core target group

According to our calculations, the core target group in Copenhagen is ~17% of the

capital’s population (55,200 males with a higher education and a driver’s license).

This represents 50% upside to GreenMobility’s current number of total customers

and a number that we expect the company to almost reach this year. However, we

assume that with technological advances and the cultural adoption of shared

mobility services, more groups will be tempted over time to use shared mobility

solutions.

For the end of 2019 the company guides for 55,000 customers in Copenhagen

(2018: 38,400). On our estimates, we expect the company to have 124,000

customers by 2021 in Copenhagen. However, we expect that relative activity,

number of trips and average minutes of driving will fall by about 5% a year, partly

financed by 20% higher prices on average.

We estimate that the average customer currently pays DKK 2/minute, which we

expect to increase to DKK 2.2/minute in 2021e. The reason is that the company will

have more City Car Go customers and less Flex and Plus customers (fixed rates

corresponding to a lower minute price). On the other hand, we do not expect a large

price hike, as GreenMobility will await a customer base above 70,000 customers

and 560,000 trips.

~ 325,000 people within the car sharing target group in Copenhagen

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Denmark office of national statistics

55,200 males with higher education (17%)

157,000 people are males (48%)

325,000 people aged between 18-40 (100%)

Greenmobility


Current electric car penetration

Eighty-five percent of European Union member states have favourable

regulations for electric cars, according to the European automobile

manufacturer association (ACEA). Penetration has increased dramatically in

the past years, primarily driven by countries with the highest GDP per capita.

One of the major risk factors for GreenMobility would be regulatory changes.

We find it plausible that EU member states will maintain and expand their

current guidelines, however, because electric car penetration remains low.

Norway has a high adoption rate, and almost 40% of the total cars are electric. This

is mainly the result of favourable regulations and higher GDP per capita, with more

equitably-distributed wealth evenly. Across Europe, we find an average penetration

of around 2.7%. The majority of countries (including Denmark) have a penetration

rate less than 1%, relative to their number of cars.

Several member states are expanding their infrastructure for electric cars without

having a particularly high penetration rate. Typically, the larger countries own the

majority of charging stations, however, with the Netherlands having the most

advanced electric car infrastructure.

European countries’ market share of electric automobiles vs. traditional cars

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA)

Distribution of electric vehicle charging stations in Europe


39.3%

5.2% 2.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Norw

ay

Sw

eden

Neth

erla

nds

Belg

ium

Fin

land

Aust

ria

UK

Port

uga

l

Fra

nce

Germ

any

Hungar

y

1-2%

0.7%

0.6%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

Irel

and

Denm

ark

Slo

venia

Spain

Bulg

aria

Latv

ia

Est

onia

Gre

ece

Italy

Lith

uania

Pola

nd

Rom

ania

Slo

vaki

a

Cze

ch R

epublic

0.3%

27%

20%

13%11%

6%

4%4%3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0.2%1-2%

Greenmobility


Favourable electric car regulations across the EU The majority of European countries have favourable regulations for electric cars. We

expect Poland and the Baltics to follow the trend soon. Several countries, such as

Sweden, Denmark and the UK, have made specific regulations for low-end electric

cars rather than including all electric cars.

Key regulatory incentives for electric cars


Country Incentives

AustriaEVs are exempt from fuel consumption/pollution tax, ownership tax and company car tax. Deductible

VAT for zero-emission cars.

Belgium

Exemption from registration tax for EVs and PHEVs, purchase subsidies for BEVs and FCEVs

(Flanders). EVs pay the lowest rate of annual circulation tax (all three regions). 120% deduction from

company car tax for zero-emission vehicles.

Bulgaria EVs are exempt from ownership tax.

Croatia None

Czech Republic EVs, HEVs and other APVs are exempt from road tax.

Denmark BEVs pay only 40% of the registration tax. Hydrogen and fuel cell-powered vehicles are exempt.

Estonia None

Finland BEVs pay the minimum rate of the CO2-based registration tax.

FranceEVs are exempt from company car tax; local exemption from registration tax for APVs. Bonus granted

for EVs and HEVs (CO2-based), and to switch an old diesel vehicle with a new BEV or PHEV.

Germany EVs exempt from circulation tax for 10 years. Bonus granted for BEVs, FCEVs, PHEVs and EREVs.

GreeceElectric and hybrid vehicles exempt from registration tax, luxury tax and luxury living tax Electric and

hybrid cars exempt from annual circulation tax (based on cc).

Hungary EVs and PHEVs are exempt from registration tax, annual circulation tax and company car tax.

IrelandEVs, PHEVs qualify for VRT (purchase tax) reliefs; EVs pay minimum rate of road tax Grant support for

buying EVs and PHEVs. No parkering charge for EV.

Italy EVs exempt from annual circulation tax for five years (75% reduction for following years).

Latvia BEVs pay the lowest fee for technical inspections and the lowest amount for company car tax.

Lithuania None

NetherlandsZero-emission cars are exempt from registration and motor vehicle tax, and pay the lowest rate of

company car tax.

NorwayPurchase tax exemption for BEV's/FCEV's, reduction for PHEV's (up to 10.000€). No VAT and import

tax (BEV/FCEV). No parkering charge for EV.

Poland None

PortugalDeductible VAT for EVs and PHEVs. BEVs are exempt from registration tax (75% reduction for

PHEVs).

Romania EVs are exempt from ownership tax. Incentive scheme grants bonus for buying BEVs and hybrids.

Slovakia BEVs pay the lowest rate for registration tax and are exempt from motor vehicle tax.

SloveniaFinancial incentives are granted for the purchase of zero-emission vehicles. BEVs pay the lowest rate of

tax on motor vehicle.

SpainLocal reductions on ownership tax for fuel-efficient vehicles. Reductions on company car taxation for

APVs.

SwedenBonus available to purchase new vehicles with CO2 emissions of max 60g/km. Five years exemption

from annual circulation tax for electric and plug-in hybrid cars.

UK

Cars emitting less than 50g/km are exempt from first year allowances (FYAs). Zero-emission vehicles

attract a zero rate of vehicle excise duty (VED). Reduction on company car tax rates for ultra-low

emissions and electric vehicles.

Greenmobility


Geographical expansion

GreenMobility has invested ~DKK 15m in opex to enter Oslo, as its first new

market. The company expects the cost to enter new markets to be effectively

DKK 4.5m per new market. With ~13-15 cities to go, this implies an opex level

of ~DKK 60-70m in system installations, market research and some additional

service personnel.

We estimate that the company can succeed in its ambitions GreenMobility has outlined its ambition to be among the market leaders in 15 cities

by 2021, and to cater to ~580,000 customers. It aims to enter European cities with

populations of ~1 million. In addition, GreenMobility wants mature cities with large

urban areas, tight population densities, a green political agenda, and the potential to

have a fleet of 600 cars within three years from start. A contract would typically run

3-5 years.

We have listed the cities that best fit this description below. With the ambition of

450,000 users (our estimate is higher at ~635,000 users), this implies ~0.4% of all

city residences and a multiple of 17x GreenMobility’s current customer base.

ABGSC’s screening of cities fitting GreenMobility’s criteria Below we list 37 cities that best fit the expansion criteria that GreenMobility has

disclosed. Italy, Germany, Poland and UK have the cities with the most likely areas

for expansion.

Our filtering is based on the density of the urban population, the GDP per capita (of

20-30 year olds) and corresponding GDP per capita of young people per square

kilometre in the urban area of each city. In addition, we list the number of shared

mobility services in each city. GreenMobility does not want to be a first mover, but

instead wants to establish itself in a mature market.

GreenMobility has recently published maps of its target areas, which we have

highlighted in grey in our study below. We believe their characteristics fit well with

our model. Despite our list fitting well, GreenMobility also views other “private”

factors unrelated to GDP per capita and density, but also which agreements can be

GreenMobility’s 2021 ambitions will cost ~DKK 70m in opex


15 cities

(7.5x)

~3,000 cars

(ABGSCe)

(4.6x)

~365,000 users

(16.7x)

Greenmobility


placed and the further objectives and incentives of the individual city. Therefore, its

own list can be prioritised slightly different to ours.

Market assumptions behind our forecast We expect GreenMobility gradually to expand its operations to 15 cities (in total) by

2021e. We see the list above as having the best locations for it to setup franchise

agreements. We expect the findings for our underlying market to hold true, that

there are no fundamental disruptions, but a CAGR 30% market, with more young

people using mobility services, more urbanisation across European cities and a

general decrease in demand for car ownership.

Screening of (36) cities that best fit GreenMobility’s expansion criteria


Geography Urban AreaPopulation

ages 20-29

Per square

kilometer

Per capita

(Country)

Per square

kilometer

(City)

Car2goDriveNo

wEnjoy

Share'n'

goZipcar Emov Zity Poppy Panek

Mol

Limo

4Mobilit

y

Catch a

car#

1 Spain Madrid 624,220 4,700 28,157 132,337,034 x x x 3

2 Italy Florence 82,830 3,800 31,953 121,421,308 x x x 3

3 Italy Rome 393,813 3,600 31,953 115,030,713 x x x 3

4 Italy Milan 524,753 2,800 31,953 89,468,333 x x x 3

5 Germany Munich 240,097 4,400 44,470 195,667,600 x x 2

6 Austria Vienna 226,674 4,000 47,291 189,163,647 x x 2

7 France Paris 1,282,270 3,700 38,477 142,363,637 x x 2

8 Germany Berlin 483,717 3,100 44,470 137,856,718 x x 2

9 Italy Turin 152,268 4,100 31,953 131,007,201 x x 2

10 Germany Hamburg 248,316 2,700 44,470 120,068,754 x x 2

11 Belgium Brussels 263,658 2,700 43,324 116,974,280 x x 2

12 Denmark Copenhagen 173,657 2,000 56,308 112,615,017 x 2

13 Portugal Lisbon 286,540 2,800 21,136 59,181,632 x x 2

14 Poland Warsaw 299,196 4,200 13,812 58,008,990 x x 2

15 Poland Poznan 70,052 2,400 13,812 33,147,994 x x 2

16 United KingdomLondon 1,362,821 5,600 39,720 222,434,483 x x 2

17 Switzerland Geneva 77,682 3,400 80,190 272,644,969 x 1

18 Norway Oslo 138,729 3,200 75,505 241,614,612 1

19 Switzerland Basel 67,032 2,700 80,190 216,512,182 x 1

20 Sweden Stockholm 213,864 3,700 53,442 197,735,431 x 1

21 United KingdomBristol 86,263 4,300 39,720 170,797,907 x 1

22 Netherlands Amsterdam 207,113 3,300 48,223 159,136,413 x 1

23 Germany Frankfurt 230,705 3,000 44,470 133,409,727 x 1

24 Germany Stuttgart 164,370 2,900 44,470 128,962,736 x 1

25 Spain Barcelona 473,175 4,500 28,157 126,705,671 x 1

26 Germany Cologne-Bonn 255,360 2,800 44,470 124,515,745 x 1

27 Germany Essen-Dusseldorf 782,518 2,500 44,470 111,174,773 x 1

28 Italy Bologna 52,574 3,400 31,953 108,640,118 x 1

29 Italy Catania 72,414 3,000 31,953 95,858,928 x 1

30 Finland Helsinki 155,218 1,900 45,703 86,836,323 x 1

31 Belgium Antwerp 125,669 1,600 43,324 69,318,092 x 1

32 Poland Wrocław 81,182 5,000 13,812 69,058,321 x 1

33 Poland Lodz 89,693 3,800 13,812 52,484,324 x 1

34 Poland Krakow 100,168 3,500 13,812 48,340,825 x 1

35 Poland Katowice-Gliwice-Tychy283,483 3,200 13,812 44,197,326 x 1

36 Hungary Budapest 312,582 2,600 14,225 36,984,601 x 1

* grey: confirmed by GM as targets

# of comp. in

CityPopulation

Density GDP (2017, current $USD)Presence of major shared mobility companies

Greenmobility


Forecasts

We have consolidated our growth forecasts, creating an operational leverage

model for GreenMobility based on its objectives, market data and (limited)

historical operational achievements. We forecast consolidated sales of DKK 34m

in 2019 (guidance: DKK 32-34m) and DKK 83m (guidance: 75-85m) in 2021. In

addition, we estimate EBIT of DKK -24m in 2019 and positive earnings in 2021, of

DKK 4m. Based on its operational model in Denmark, however, we have created a

scenario analysis with an assumed 8% franchise fee to account for revenue.

Base, bear and bull case: road to ~1m customers We have assumed an 8% franchise fee for the company, and assumed that its

current share issue programme will be sufficient to expand into the desired 15

markets. We therefore assume that GreenMobility will reach 15 cities, which we

believe equates to ~3,000 cars (~200 cars in each city on average). We are

uncertain about the adoption levels, and have illustrated a low and high adoption

case below.

Assumptions of pipeline cities


Revenue from CPH, Oslo and projected pipeline cities


Base Low High Base Low High Base Low High

Cities 3 3 3 8 8 8 13 13 13

Cars 175 175 175 1,240 1,240 1,240 2,305 2,305 2,305

Customers ('000) 35 30 40 248 211 285 461 392 530

Trips ('000) 42 33 52 298 234 368 553 435 684

Price (avg.) 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9

Fee (%) 8% 7% 9% 8% 7% 9% 8% 7% 9%

GM take 1,251 919 1,642 12,909 9,409 17,069 33,496 24,549 44,034

2019e 2020e 2021e

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2e

Q3e

Q4e

Q1e

Q2e

Q3e

Q4e

Q1e

Q2e

Q3e

Q4e

2018 2019 2020 2021Pipeline Oslo Copenhagen

10,088

8,472

678

11,755

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Q1 Q2eQ3eQ4eQ1eQ2eQ3eQ4eQ1eQ2eQ3eQ4e

2019 2020 2021

BASE case LOW adoption HIGH adoption

Greenmobility


Cost structure ~ flexible in a franchise structure Based on historical rates, we estimate ~DKK 44,000 of costs per car annually in

auto operations. We estimate sales expenses to increase by 13% a year. We

expect local costs to maintain at 2% of revenue. For administration expenses, we

also expect more outsourcing to local offices, and optimisation from 24% in 2018 to

18% of sales in 2021e.

Topline overview ~ uncertainty about adoption in markets


Consolidated cost impact on EBITDA


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY

KPI's Summary with franchise - BASE Case

Sales 26 34 50 83

Number of customers (end period) ('000) 8 100 371 635

Number of trips ('000) 28 682 955 1,396

Average minutes of driving 27 26 27 27

Price (per minute of driving) (DKK) 4.6 2.7 2.8 2.9

No. Cars 250 825 1,890 2,955

Revenue per car (DKK) 103.0 41.6 26.3 28.2

Revenue per customer (DKK) 0.3 0.1 0.1

KPI's Summary with franchise - LOW adaption

Sales 34 46 74

Number of customers (end period) ('000) 95 333 566

Number of trips ('000) 673 891 1,277

Average minutes of driving 26 27 27

Price (per minute of driving) (DKK) 3 3 3

No. Cars 825 1,890 2,955

Revenue per car (DKK) 41.2 24.4 25.2


KPI's Summary with franchise - HIGH adaption

Sales 35 54 94

Number of customers (end period) ('000) 65 123 704

Number of trips ('000) 692 1,025 1,526

Average minutes of driving 27 27 27

Price (per minute of driving) (DKK) 3 3 3

No. Cars 825 1,890 2,955

Revenue per car (DKK) 42.1 28.5 31.8


2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

3 14 20 21 24 26

1 4 6 7 10 17

0 1 1 1 1 2

2 2 3 6 9 15

2 12 19 17 16 15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Auto Operation Sales expenses Local costs

Administrative expenses Employee expenses

Greenmobility


For employee costs, we expect the company to expand its existing workforce

employees to 85 people (from 81 in 2017). We estimate that GreenMobility’s

workforce will increase by 5% a year, and that total salary inflation will increase by

5% annually. This leads to a 10% increase in total employee expenses by 2021e.

Depreciation Model ~LT capex/sales 7% & DKK 14m in capex by 2021e


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e

Depreciations

Depreciations of cars (tangibles) -1.1 -7.0 -6.8 -6.6 -6.0 -5.0

Depreciations of software (intangibles) 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2

Total -1.1 -7.4 -7.0 -6.7 -6.2 -5.2

- of sales (%) 278% 52% 27% 20% 12% 6%

Intangibles (software)

Cost price 01.01 0.0 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9

Additions 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Take-outs 0.0 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Cost price 31.12 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0

Depreciations 01.01 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

Depreciations 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2

Reversal regarding departure 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Depreciation and impairment losses 31.12. 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2

Rate of depreciation 1.9 25.1 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6

Carrying amount 31.12. 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8

Tangibles (Cars)

Cost price 01.01 55.9 51.9 51.0 49.7 46.9 42.8

Additions -4.0 0.0 1.0 -2.8 -4.1 -6.8

Takeout 0.0 -0.9 -2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

Cost price 31.12 51.9 51.0 49.7 46.9 42.8 36.0

Depreciations 01.01 0.0 -1.1 -8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Depreciations -1.1 -7.0 -6.8 -6.6 -6.0 -5.0

Reversal regarding departure 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

Depreciation and impairment losses 31.12. -1.1 -8.0 -14.3 -6.6 -6.0 -5.0

Rate of depreciation 0.0 1.9 13.6 14.0 14.0 14.0

Carrying amount 31.12. 50.8 43.0 35.4 40.3 36.8 31.0

125% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0%

Capacity investments

Tangibles, net -0.24 0.00 -0.45 -2.81 -4.12 -6.76

Intangibles, net -1.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

- intangible of total (%) 83% 100% 10% -2% -2% -2%

Total -1.4 -0.3 -0.5 -2.9 -4.2 -6.9

- of sales (%) 355% 2% 2% 8% 8% 8%

Greenmobility


P&L with estimates


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY

Sales 0.00 0.4 14.2 26 34 50 83

- growth (%) 34.40 33% 45% 68%

Other income 2.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other external costs -4 -24 -29 -30 -36 -49

Gross profit 0.3 0.1 -1.3 -10.1 -3.4 3.9 13.9 34.9

- margin (%) n/a n/a n/a 11% 28% 42%

Employee expenses -0.3 0.0 -3.3 -14.0 -20.2 -21.4 -23.6 -26.1

Other costs 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EBITDA 0.0 0.1 -4.5 -24.6 -23.6 -17.6 -9.8 8.8

- margin (%) n/a n/a n/a -51% -20% 11%

Depreciations -1 -7 -7 -7 -6 -5

EBIT 0 0 -6 -32 -31 -24 -16 4

- margin (%) n/a n/a n/a -71% -32% 4%

Financial income 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Financial costs 0.00 0.00 -0.3 -1.4 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1

Net financials 0.00 0.00 -0.3 -1.4 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1

PTP 0.02 0.08 -5.9 -33.4 -31.8 -25.4 -17.0 2.5

- margin (%) n/a n/a n/a -74% -34% 3%

Tax 0.00 0.02 0.72 2.8 -2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

- Tax rate (%) 24% 24% -12% -9% 9% 0% 0% 0%

Result 0.0 0.1 -5.2 -30.6 -34.6 -25.4 -17.0 2.5

KPI's

Number of customers ('000) 21 38 100 371 635

Number of trips ('000) 321 433 682 955 1,396

Average minutes of driving 44 29 26 27 27

Price (per minute of driving) 1.8 1.9 2.7 2.8 2.9

No. Cars 400 400 825 1,890 2,955

- operated by GM 400 400 400 400 400

Greenmobility


Capital structure ratios

Capex development relative to sales


Depreciation relative to sales


FCF and FCF yield


2.1% 1.9%

8.3% 8.3% 8.3%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

CAPEX (Intangibles) CAPEX (Tangibles) CAPEX % of sales (right axis)

0 01

7 7 76

5

52%

27%

20%

12%

6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Depreciation (tangibles) Depreciation (intangibles)

Depreciation of sales (right axis)

0 0

-5

-23

-25-24

-16

-1

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

FCF FCF yield (right axis)

We estimate GreenMobility to

maintain capex levels of ~5-6%.

These levels will increase due to

upgrades of its IT systems and

further auto operations as a

result of opening franchise

operations in more countries.

GreenMobility will take a

franchise fee from its partners

and will thus have a flexible

capital structure. Corresponding

sales will therefore have a lower

asset base corresponding to

lower risk.

Positive cash flow is not

expected with the current setup

for the projected years to come

due to the company’s excessive

growth strategy.

Greenmobility


Valuation

Our fundamental valuation uses a DCF methodology and a multiple peer analysis.

Our extensive market analysis and consideration of capital structure is the

baseline of the assumptions put forward in our DCF and multiple analysis. Our

assumptions include a beta of 1.8 with an extra risk factor of 2.5%, a WACC of

11.3% with LT sales growth, and EBITA margins of 30% and 10%, respectively.

Based on our assumptions and forecast model, we arrive at a DCF valuation and

multiple analysis result of DKK 120 per share.

M&A transaction multiple Recent years have seen deals involving players from many parts of the ecosystem,

including car sharing operators, car rental companies, car sharing telematics

specialists, equity investment companies and telematics technology providers.

Market participants on the car rental markets invest in the car sharing industry, and

many see significant synergies between traditional car rental and the emerging

short-term rentals through car sharing.

DCF assumptions summary


Peer analysis − car companies and car leasing operators (no direct listed peer)


Cost of debt 2.3% Valuation Summary Assumptions

Rf yield 2% NPV of future cash flow s 243 Grow th in year 10 after the explicit forecast period 30.0%

Borrow ing spread to Rf 1.0% Net interest bearing debt -27 EBITA margin in year 10 after the explicit forecast period 10%

EBITA Tax Rate 23.0% Dividend paid 0

Value of shareholders equity 216

Cost of equity 14% Number of shares 2.0

Market risk premium 5% DCF per share 111

Equity β 1.80

Extra risk factor 2.50%

WACC 11.3%

Equity 80.0%

Debt 20.0%

2019 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e

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Tesla Inc 42,405 35.7x 19.1x 1.9x 1.6x 1.1x 21.1x 11.8x 8.6x 156.3x 33.0x 22.4x

Volksw agen AG 91,289 6.0x 5.7x 5.3x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 1.7x 1.5x 1.3x 3.5x 2.9x 2.7x

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG 55,127 8.2x 7.6x 7.6x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 2.4x 2.1x 2.1x 3.9x 3.5x 3.6x

Daimler AG 70,124 7.9x 7.7x 7.5x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 2.6x 2.6x 2.4x 4.0x 3.9x 3.8x



GreenMobility 27.9 -7.0x -11.0x 124.7x 3.5x 2.7x 1.6x -6.8x -13.8x 15.5x -6.8x -13.8x 15.5x

Difference to median (Peers) -100% 150% 222% -1567% -391% -312% -166% 166% 265% -111% 168% 256% -105%

GreenMobilityMarket Cap (mEur) EV/EBITEV/EBITDAP/E EV/Sales

Greenmobility


Numerous mergers and acquisitions have taken place in the car sharing telematics

value chain. We find that the average transaction size is DKK 2.3bn, with an

average fleet size of 3,475 cars. This implies a median transaction value per fleet of

0.4x. We have chosen to weigh our total valuation by 7.5%, reflecting the price

factor and likelihood that GreenMobility could be acquired.

Shared mobility M&A status

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet

Sum of the parts valuation


Buyer Acquisition target Date Place Transaction value (DKKm) Fleet Size Transaction / Fleet

Avis Budget Group Zipcar May-13 USA 3,220 1,050 3.1x

Lotte Rental Greencar Oct-13 South Korea 5,835 5,900 1.0x

Europcar Ubeeqo Jan-15 France

General Motors Sidecar Jun-16 USA 3,220

Europcar Bluemove Jun-16 Spain 208 500 0.4x

Europcar GoldCar Jun-16 Spain 3,967 60,000 0.1x

Mayflower GoCar Malaysia Jul-16 Malaysia 1,346 600 2.2x

Ubeeqo GuidaMi Jan-17 Italy

Audi Silvercar Mar-17 USA 421

Volvo Cars First Rent a Car Jul-17 ?

Ridecell Auto Robotics Oct-17 USA

BMW Group DriveNow Feb-18 Europe 2,196 7,370 0.3x

SEAT Respiro Feb-18 Spain 40 200

Daimler* Car2go Europe (merger with DriveNow) Mar-18 Europe 2,196 7,530 0.3x

Median 2,196 3,475 0.4x

*consolidated

ABGSCe valuation - 2021e Peers EV Multiple Estimate Value



Lyft Inc. 4.0x 83 334

Mean EV/Sales 0.6x 145



Mean EV/EBITDA 7.4x 65

ABGSCe valuation - 2021e SOTP

M&A Transaction value* 0.4x

No. Cars 2,955

M&A TV 1,229

NPV Time adjustment factor -0.87

NPV EV (Peers/M&A 85/15), DKK 237

- NIBD -27

SOTP EQ, DKK 210

Oustanding shares (m) 2.04

SOTP, DKK 103

DCF value per share (WACC: 11.3%), DKK 111

PV (SOTP 50%, DCF 50%), DKK 107

FV 12 month time adjustment factor 1.13

Target Price, DKK 120

* Historically M&A transaction EV by no. Cars

Greenmobility


Valuation summary In our peer valuation, we include traditional car companies (Tesla, VW; BMW and

Daimler), rental car companies (Hertz and Avis) and also a car mobility company,

Lyft, which was recently (28 March 28 2019) became a public company and trades

at 4x EV/EBITDA ’19. When consolidating these results with our M&A valuations we

derive a price of DKK 103 per share. We weight this result with our DCF that has a

WACC of 11.3% and LT sales growth of 30% and EBITA of 10%. This equates to a

12-month target price of DKK 120.

Below we show the valuation sensitivity. We also highlight EBITA margin of 50%.

The reason is that if the franchise model goes above expectations and the company

receives 8% due to accelerated of growth, then the revenue has a limited cost-base

and would increase GreenMobility’s earnings exponentially.

Valuation sensitivity


110.93

119.67 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 50%

0% -24 -23 -21 -19 -17 -16 -14 -12 54

10% -14 -10 -6 -2 2 7 11 15 166

20% 6 15 24 34 43 52 61 70 405

30% 43 62 81 101 120 139 158 177 886

40% 107 146 184 223 262 301 340 378 1,815

50% 213 288 364 439 515 590 666 741 3,533

60% 383 525 666 807 948 1,089 1,230 1,372 6,595

70% 649 904 1,159 1,414 1,669 1,924 2,179 2,434 11,872

LT (10Y) EBITA margin

LT

(10Y

) S

ale

s G

row

th

Greenmobility


Risks

We see three fundamental risks for the GreenMobility case, and believe that the

majority of other risks are also reflected in these circumstances. Fundamentally,

the mobility market is growing at substantial rates with many market participants

including the car companies VW, BMW and Daimler. The market is still immature,

so GreenMobility can grow well while the market is expanding and user adoption

is increasing. However, as a small company, liquidity is crucial to GreenMobility’s

growth strategy. Other market participants will benefit more in a consolidating

market.

Small fish in a big pond GreenMobility has less than a 3% market share in Europe, in terms of fleet size.

The merger between Car2go and DriveNow is financed by Daimler and BMW, which

own 66% of the total fleets in Europe. With a presence in more than 15 cities, these

two companies are expanding their reach and gaining user traction.

GreenMobility is attempting to enter markets as the second or third company,

arriving in a more mature market. In Berlin, a consolidated platform between the

different providers has already been created. In the medium term, this may also

happen in other markets. In the long term, however, we believe there will be a

consolidation of providers. If GreenMobility does not expand fast enough, it will not

gain its desired ~450,000-1.4m customer traction by 2021e (we estimate 635,000).

Franchise agreements The franchise model is based on 10-15 independent agreements with various

franchisors. These contracts typically last 2-3 years. Franchisees are investing in a

business model, but also in a reputation. Likewise, franchisors are depending on the

franchisee to maintain that reputation. When one party does something that

damages this reputation, both parties can suffer.

Labour violations have proven to be an especially complicated issue for franchisees.

When a franchisee is accused of violating labour laws, the franchisor might be held

responsible.

User traction GreenMobility’s main target group is 20-30 year-old millennials. This group is more

likely to have debt, live in the city and not own a car. The group is typically quite

accepting and open to new technological endeavours. This is a group in which it is

difficult to establish brand loyalty, which is the main concept behind GreenMobility’s

franchise model.

Regulatory changes – liquidity need The removal of tax and parking incentives for electric cars, in addition to road taxes

and other traffic related fees, could impact the operating business of GreenMobility.

The company is dependent on a favourable regulatory environment during its rollout

phase.

GreenMobility has several parking license agreements with municipalities around

Copenhagen. If those were removed, liquidity would be strained. According to our

current estimates, we believe that the company must raise additional capital to fund

its liquidity needs and realise its 2021 objectives.

Greenmobility


Shareholder structure

On 25 March, GreenMobility raised DKK 35m in a capital share issue where it

issued 368,421 new shares. As a result, the free float of the share has

increased from 28.7% to 43%. The shares of the company’s current CEO are

owned through the company Hico Group; these shares were diluted from

67.5% to 54.8%. In addition, the significant shareholder, Jørn P. Jensen’s

(CFO of Dyson and fmr. CFO of Carlsberg) holdings were diluted to 3.2% from

3.75%. Hico Group or Jørn P. Jensen did not subscribe to additional shares.

GreenMobility’s equity structure ~ 28.7% free float increased to 43%


Free float585,089

28.7%

Hico Group1,373,686

67.5%

Jørn P Jensen76,316

3.75%

New shares350,000

+15%

Greenmobility


Management & Board

Management


Søren Kovsted, CFO

MSc. Acc. Aarhus Uni.

Prev.: VenuePoints, Grant

Thornton, PwC

Christian Carpens, COO

BSc. CBS

Prev.: Sixt, Mudan, Statoil

Kasper Suhr-Larsen, CTO

Programming, EUC

Prev.: Peugoet, Ipsos,

MainPoint

Anders Wall, CIO

MBA, AVT

Prev.: Paradis, London

calling Coffee, Baresso

Thomas H. Juul, CEO GM Denmark

MSc. Economics, CBS

Prev.: Bello, 24Slides, BetterPlace, Børsen

Henrik Isaksen, CEO

CEO Hico Group

Chairman Sixt Denmark

Prev.: GE Capital, Daimler

Greenmobility


Executive board


Per M. Jensen, Board member

MSc. Economics Aarhus Uni.

VP Danske Bank

Prev: Sixt, SAS

Mie L. Fenger, Board member

MSc. Management, CBS

Strategy, SimCorp

Prev. Program lead, Grundfos

Søren Jespersen, Chairman

MBA, MD

Vice Chair Mols-Linien

Prev: DFDS, SAS

Claus Juhl, board member

MSc. Pol. Aarhus Uni.

Founder, DataFair

Prev: Ministry of Finance

Arne Nilsson, board member

Investor, Følsgaard Invest

Fmr. Corporate finance

Carnegie

Mikal Hallstrup, board member

MSc. Architecture

CEO Designit

Prev: Ingvar Kamprad Design

Greenmobility



Income Statement (DKKm) Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019e Q3 2019e Q4 2019e

Sales 6 7 6 7 8 9 9 8

COGS -6 -7 -7 -9 -8 -8 -8 -7

Gross profit -0 -0 -1 -2 1 1 1 2

Other operating items -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -6

EBITDA -5 -6 -5 -7 -5 -5 -4 -4

Depreciation on tangibles -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1

Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBITA -7 -8 -7 -9 -6 -7 -6 -5

Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBIT -7 -8 -7 -9 -6 -7 -6 -5

Interest Net -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0

Other financial items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Pretax profit -7 -8 -8 -9 -7 -7 -7 -5

Tax -0 -0 0 -2 0 0 0 0

Net profit -8 -8 -8 -12 -7 -7 -7 -5

Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net profit discontinued 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net profit to shareholders -8 -8 -8 -12 -7 -7 -7 -5

EPS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EPS Adj 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tax rate (%) 7.0 2.4 0 23.0 0 0 0 0

Gross margin (%) -1.2 -6.8 -10.8 -30.8 8.5 6.5 11.8 18.5

EBITDA margin (%) -85.6 -86.8 -90.2 -102.3 -55.5 -55.6 -46.7 -46.9

EBITA margin (%) -115.5 -113.4 -119.4 -126.7 -76.8 -80.1 -69.9 -56.0

EBIT margin (%) -115.5 -113.4 -119.4 -126.7 -76.8 -80.1 -69.9 -56.0

Pretax margin (%) -119.9 -117.6 -123.7 -131.7 -80.1 -83.4 -72.9 -58.8

Net margin (%) -128.3 -120.4 -123.7 -161.9 -80.1 -83.4 -72.9 -58.8

Growth rates Y/Y Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019e Q3 2019e Q4 2019e

Sales growth (%) 414.8 122.0 33.8 28.7 40.4 29.0 49.2 18.4

EBITDA growth (%) +chg +chg -chg -chg +chg +chg +chg +chg

EBIT growth (%) +chg +chg -chg -chg +chg +chg +chg +chg

Net profit growth (%) +chg +chg -chg -chg +chg +chg +chg +chg

EPS growth (%) +chg +chg -chg -chg +chg +chg +chg +chg

Adj earnings numbers Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019e Q3 2019e Q4 2019e

EBITDA Adj -5 -6 -5 -7 -5 -5 -4 -4

EBITDA Adj margin (%) -85.6 -86.8 -90.2 -102.3 -55.5 -55.6 -46.7 -46.9

EBITA Adj -7 -8 -7 -9 -6 -7 -6 -5

EBITA Adj margin (%) -115.5 -113.4 -119.4 -126.7 -76.8 -80.1 -69.9 -56.0

EBIT Adj -7 -8 -7 -9 -6 -7 -6 -5

EBIT Adj margin (%) -115.5 -113.4 -119.4 -126.7 -76.8 -80.1 -69.9 -56.0

Pretax profit Adj -7 -8 -8 -9 -7 -7 -7 -5

Net profit Adj -8 -8 -8 -12 -7 -7 -7 -5

Net profit to shareholders Adj -8 -8 -8 -12 -7 -7 -7 -5

Net Adj margin (%) -128.3 -120.4 -123.7 -161.9 -80.1 -83.4 -72.9 -58.8

Greenmobility



Income Statement (DKKm) na na 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Sales na na 0 0 0 14 26 34 50 83

COGS na na 0 0 -2 -24 -29 -30 -36 -49

Gross profit na na 0 0 -1 -10 -3 4 14 35

Other operating items na na 0 0 -3 -14 -21 -21 -24 -26

EBITDA na na 0 0 -5 -25 -25 -18 -10 9

Depreciation on tangibles na na 0 0 -1 -7 -7 -7 -6 -5

Depreciation on intangibles na na 0 0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0

EBITA na na 0 0 -6 -32 -32 -24 -16 4

Goodwill impairment charges na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other impairment and amortisation na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBIT na na 0 0 -6 -32 -32 -24 -16 4

Interest Net na na 0 0 -0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1

Other financial items na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Associated income na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other EO items na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Pretax profit na na 0 0 -6 -33 -33 -25 -17 2

Tax na na 0 0 1 3 -3 0 0 0

Net profit na na 0 0 -5 -31 -36 -25 -17 2

Minority interest na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net profit discontinued na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net profit to shareholders na na 0 0 -5 -31 -36 -25 -17 2

EPS na na 0 0 0 0 -21.46 -13.05 -8.36 0.73

EPS Adj na na 0 0 0 0 -21.46 -13.05 -8.36 0.73

Total extraordinary items after tax na na 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1

Tax rate (%) na na 24.4 23.5 12.2 8.5 8.6 0 0 0

Gross margin (%) na na nm nm -315.3 -71.4 -13.1 11.3 28.0 41.8

EBITDA margin (%) na na nm nm -1,116.5 -173.4 -96.1 -51.1 -19.6 10.6

EBITA margin (%) na na nm nm -1,394.3 -225.8 -123.5 -70.7 -32.1 4.3

EBIT margin (%) na na nm nm -1,394.3 -225.8 -123.5 -70.7 -32.1 4.3

Pretax margin (%) na na nm nm -1,457.4 -235.4 -127.9 -73.8 -34.2 3.0

Net margin (%) na na nm nm -1,279.6 -215.3 -139.0 -73.8 -34.2 3.0

Growth rates Y/Y na na 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Sales growth (%) na na na na na 3,400.5 81.2 33.4 44.5 67.9

EBITDA growth (%) na na na 322.6 -5,906.2 -443.5 -0.4 29.1 44.4 190.4

EBIT growth (%) na na na 322.6 -7,351.0 -466.8 0.9 23.6 34.4 122.4

Net profit growth (%) na na na 315.5 -5,487.9 -489.1 -16.9 29.1 32.9 114.7

EPS growth (%) na na na na na na high 39.2 36.0 108.8

Profitability na na 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

ROE (%) na na na 28.9 -994.4 -197.6 -256.5 -2,772.6 418.3 -22.0

ROE Adj (%) na na na 28.9 -994.4 -194.1 -256.5 -2,772.6 418.3 -22.0

ROCE (%) na na na 565.5 -22.0 -66.9 -81.9 -75.0 -51.2 11.0

ROCE Adj(%) na na na 565.5 -22.0 -65.8 -81.9 -75.0 -51.2 11.0

ROIC (%) na na na 142.4 -18.1 -57.4 -83.3 -69.6 -47.4 10.2

ROIC Adj (%) na na na 142.4 -18.1 -56.5 -83.3 -69.6 -47.4 10.2

Adj earnings numbers na na 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

EBITDA Adj na na 0 0 -5 -24 -25 -18 -10 9

EBITDA Adj margin (%) na na nm nm -1,116.5 -169.6 -96.1 -51.1 -19.6 10.6

EBITA Adj na na 0 0 -6 -32 -32 -24 -16 4

EBITA Adj margin (%) na na nm nm -1,394.3 -222.0 -123.5 -70.7 -32.1 4.3

EBIT Adj na na 0 0 -6 -32 -32 -24 -16 4

EBIT Adj margin (%) na na nm nm -1,394.3 -222.0 -123.5 -70.7 -32.1 4.3

Pretax profit Adj na na 0 0 -6 -33 -33 -25 -17 2

Net profit Adj na na 0 0 -5 -30 -36 -25 -17 2

Net profit to shareholders Adj na na 0 0 -5 -30 -36 -25 -17 2

Net Adj margin (%) na na nm nm -1,279.6 -211.5 -139.0 -73.8 -34.2 3.0

Greenmobility



Cash Flow Statement (DKKm) na na 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

EBITDA na na 0 0 -5 -25 -25 -18 -10 9

Net financial items na na 0 0 -0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1

Paid tax na na 0 0 -0 0 -3 0 0 0

Non-cash items na na 0 0 4 4 0 0 0 0

Cash flow before change in WC na na 0 0 -0 -22 -29 -19 -11 8

Change in WC na na na -0 -3 -1 4 -2 -1 -2

Operating cash flow na na 0 0 -3 -23 -25 -21 -12 6

CAPEX tangible fixed assets na na 0 0 -0 0 -0 -3 -4 -7

CAPEX intangible fixed assets na na 0 0 -1 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0

Acquisitions and disposals na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Free cash flow na na 0 0 -5 -23 -25 -24 -16 -1

Dividend paid na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Share issues and buybacks na na 0 0 0 0 0 32 0 0

Other non cash items na na na 0 -47 60 4 0 0 0

Decrease in net IB debt na na na 0 -51 37 -22 8 -16 -1

Balance Sheet (DKKm) na na 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Goodwill na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Indefinite intangible assets na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Definite intangible assets na na 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -0

Tangible fixed assets na na 0 0 51 43 36 32 30 32

Other fixed assets na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fixed assets na na 0 0 52 44 36 32 30 32

Inventories na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Receivables na na 0 0 5 5 5 7 9 16

Other current assets na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cash and liquid assets na na 0 0 3 32 2 10 -6 -7

Total assets na na 0 1 61 81 43 49 34 41

Shareholders equity na na 0 1 0 31 -3 4 -13 -10

Minority na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total equity na na 0 1 0 31 -3 4 -13 -10

Long-term debt na na 0 0 46 38 29 29 29 29

Pension debt na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Convertible debt na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Deferred tax na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other long-term liabilities na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Short-term debt na na 0 0 9 8 8 8 8 8

Accounts payable na na 0 0 2 1 5 4 6 11

Other current liabilities na na 0 0 4 3 3 3 3 3

Total liabilities and equity na na 0 1 61 81 43 49 34 41

Net IB debt na na -0 -0 51 14 36 27 43 44

Net IB debt excl. pension debt na na -0 -0 51 14 36 27 43 44

Capital invested na na 0 0 55 47 36 34 33 37

Working capital na na 0 0 3 4 -0 2 3 5

EV breakdown na na 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Market cap. diluted (m) na na na na na 247 183 185 185 185

Net IB debt Adj na na -0 -0 51 14 36 27 43 45

Market value of minority na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Reversal of shares and participations na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EV na na na na na 261 218 212 228 231

Capital efficiency (%) na na 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Total assets turnover (%) na na na 0 1.3 20.1 41.7 74.9 120.0 223.5

Capital invested turnover (%) na na na 0 1.5 27.8 62.2 98.5 147.7 238.7

Capital employed turnover (%) na na na 0 1.6 29.6 66.4 106.1 159.6 257.2

Inventories/sales (%) na na na nm 0 0 0 0 0 0

Customer advances/sales (%) na na na nm 0 0 0 0 0 0

Payables/sales (%) na na na nm 301.8 12.9 12.9 14.4 10.9 10.3

Working capital/sales (%) na na na nm 378.2 22.8 6.1 2.5 5.1 4.9

Financial risk and debt service na na 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Net debt/equity (%) na na -149.1 -87.1 10,814.9 45.9 -1,367.1 613.7 -343.1 -440.4

Net debt/market cap (%) na na na na na 5.7 16.2 14.7 23.3 24.0

Equity ratio (%) na na 63.1 91.5 0.8 37.8 -6.1 9.1 -37.1 -24.7

Net IB debt adj./equity (%) na na -149.1 -87.1 10,814.9 45.9 -1,367.1 613.7 -343.1 -450.4

Current ratio (%) na na 271.1 1,180.8 59.7 299.2 40.4 107.7 20.5 40.2

EBITDA/net interest (%) na na -10,556.6 high -1,770.7 -1,806.2 -2,145.6 -1,639.6 -911.4 823.6

Net IB debt/EBITDA (%) na na -759.6 -640.4 -1,123.7 -56.9 -144.2 -155.2 -442.0 503.2

Interest cover (%) na na nm nm -2,184.6 -2,352.2 -2,756.8 -2,268.3 -1,488.6 333.0

Greenmobility



Valuation and Ratios (DKKm) na na 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Shares outstanding adj. na na 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2

Fully diluted shares Adj na na 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2

EPS na na 0 0 0 0 -21.46 -13.05 -8.36 0.73

Dividend per share Adj na na nm nm nm 0 0 0 0 0

EPS Adj na na 0 0 0 0 -21.46 -13.05 -8.36 0.73

BVPS na na 0 0 0 18.30 -1.57 2.18 0 0

BVPS Adj na na 0 0 0 18.00 -1.73 2.10 0 0

Net IB debt / share na na na na na 8.4 21.4 13.4 na na

Share price na na na na na 148.00 109.50 91.00 91.00 91.00

Market cap. (m) na na na na na 247 183 185 0 0

Valuation na na 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

P/E na na na na na nm -5.1 -7.0 -10.9 124.0

EV/sales na na na na na 18.34 8.47 6.18 4.60 2.76

EV/EBITDA na na na na na -10.6 -8.8 -12.1 -23.4 26.2

EV/EBITA na na na na na -8.1 -6.9 -8.7 -14.3 64.7

EV/EBIT na na na na na -8.1 -6.9 -8.7 -14.3 64.7

Dividend yield (%) na na na na na 0 0 0 0 0

FCF yield (%) na na na na na 0 -13.9 -13.6 -8.6 -0.7

P/BVPS na na na na na 8.09 -69.95 41.73 nm nm

P/BVPS Adj na na na na na 8.22 -63.39 43.33 nm nm

P/E Adj na na na na na nm -5.1 -7.0 -10.9 124.0

EV/EBITDA Adj na na na na na -10.8 -8.8 -12.1 -23.4 26.2

EV/EBITA Adj na na na na na -8.3 -6.9 -8.7 -14.3 64.7

EV/EBIT Adj na na na na na -8.3 -6.9 -8.7 -14.3 64.7

EV/cap. employed na na na na na 5.9 6.6 6.7 7.5 6.7

Investment ratios na na 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

Capex/sales na na nm nm 354.9 2.1 1.9 8.3 8.3 8.3

Capex/depreciation na na nm nm 127.7 4.0 7.1 42.5 66.9 132.1

Capex tangibles/tangible fixed assets na na nm nm 0.5 0 1.3 8.8 13.5 21.4

Capex intangibles/definite intangibles na na nm nm 102.0 58.4 18.5 33.7 121.1 -3,093.4

Depreciation on intangibles/definite intangibles na na nm nm 2.0 85.0 88.9 99.0 270.1 -4,714.4

Depreciation on tangibles/tangibles na na nm nm 2.2 16.2 19.1 20.6 20.0 15.9

Greenmobility


Analyst certification I/We, André Thormann, Laurits Kjærgaard, the author(s) of this report, certify that not withstanding the existence of any such potential conflicts of interests referred to below, the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my/our personal view about the companies and securities

covered in this report. I/We further certify that I/We have not been, nor am/are or will be, receiving direct or indirect compensation related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report.

Stock ratings distribution ABG Sundal Collier Ratings and Investment Banking by 05/05/2019

Analyst stock ratings definitions BUY = We expect this stock’s total return to exceed the market’s expected total return by 5% or more over the next six months. HOLD = We expect this stock’s total return to be in line with the market’s expected total return within a range of 4% over the next six months. SELL = We expect this stock’s total return to underperform the market’s expected total return by 5% or more over the next six months .

Analyst valuation methods When setting the individual ratings, ABG Sundal Collier assumes that a normal total absolute return (including dividends) for the market is 8% per annum, or 4% on a 6-month basis. Therefore, when we rate a stock a buy, we expect an absolute return of 9% or better over six months. We have more rigorous guidelines for trading buys and trading sells on small cap stocks, defined as having a market capitalisation below USD

1.5 billion. For trading buys on small cap stocks, we must identify a potential absolute return of 15% or more over the next six weeks. This more rigorous guideline reflects the fact that the low trading volume for small cap stocks inhibits the ability to trade them within a narrow price band.

ABG Sundal Collier analysts publish price targets for the stocks they cover. These price targets rely on various valuation methods. One of the most frequently used methods is the valuation of a company by calculation of that company’s discounted cash flow (DCF). Another valuation method is the analysis of a company’s return on capital employed relative to its cost of capital. Finally, the analysts may analyse various

valuation multiples (e.g. the P/E multiples and the EV/EBITDA multiples) relative to global industry peers. In special cases, particularly for property companies and investment companies, the ratio of price to net asset value is considered. Price targets are changed when earnings and cash flow forecasts are changed. They may also be changed when the underlying value of a company’s assets changes (in the cases of

investment companies, property companies or insurance companies) or when factors impacting the required rate of return change.

Stock price, company ratings and target price history

Important Company Specific Disclosure ssss

A redacted version of this research report has been sent to Greenmobility for the purposes of checking its factual content only. Any changes made have been based on factual input received

w

The following disclosures relate to the relationship between ABG Sundal Collier and its affiliates and the companies covered by ABG Sundal

Collier referred to in this research report.

Unless disclosed in this section, ABG Sundal Collier has no required regulatory disclosures to make in relation to an ownersh ip position for the

analyst(s) and members of the analyst’s household, ownership by ABG Sundal Collier, ownership in ABG Sundal Col lier by the company(ies) to

whom the recommendation(s) refer(s) to, market making, managed or co-managed public offerings, compensation for provision of certain

services, directorship of the analyst, or a member of the analyst’s household, or in relation to any contractual obligations to the issuance of this

research report.

mo

Buy56%

Hold31%

Sell13% Research Coverage Investment Banking Clients (IBC)

% of % of % of

Total of Rating Total Rating Total IBC Total Rating by Type

Buy 56% 77% 13%

Hold 32% 15% 5%

Sell 13% 8% 6%

IBC: Companies in respect of which ABG SC or an affiliate has received compensation fr investment banking services within the past 12 months

Company: Greenmobility Currency: DKK Current Recommendation: BUY

Date: 03/05/2019 Current Target price:

Current Share price:

120

91

720

750

780

810

840

870

900

80

100

120

140

160

J-17 S-17 D-17 M-18 J-18 S-18 D-18 M-19

Greenmobility (L Axis) OMX CPGN PI (R Axis)Data source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet

3 May B : DKK120

Greenmobility Greenmobility Greenmobility Greenmobility Greenmobility Greenmobility Greenmobility Greenmobility Greenmobility

Greenmobility


ABG Sundal Collier has managed or co-managed a public or Rule 144A offering for Greenmobility in the last 12 months.

Within the last 12 months, ABG Sundal Collier has received compensation for Corporate Finance services from Greenmobility.

ABG Sundal Collier ASA or an affiliate has a corporate broking agreement at the time of this report’s publication.

mo

ABG Sundal Collier is not aware of any other actual, material conflicts of interest of the analyst or ABG Sundal Collier of which the analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of the publication of this report.

Production of recommendation : 05/05/19 - 14:05 CET.

All prices are as of market close on 03 May, 2019 unless otherwise noted.

For full details of recommendation and target price history for the subject company, please see Company Page on Research on the Web.

For details of recommendations and target prices for ABG Sundal Collier’s coverage universe, please see ABGSC Coverage Page on Research on the Web.

Disclaimer This document has been prepared by ABG Sundal Collier which is the marketing name referring to all or any of ABG Sundal Collier ASA, ABG

Sundal Collier AB or ABG Sundal Collier Partners LLP and any of their affiliated or associated companies and their directors, officers, representatives and employees.

This report is provided solely for the information and use of professional investors, who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on this report. The information contained herein does not apply to, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. This

report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Research reports prepared by ABG Sundal Collier are for information purposes only. The recommendation(s) in this report has (have) no regard to specific investment objectives and the financial situation or needs of any specific recipient. ABG Sundal Collier accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses arising from any use of this report

or its contents. This report is not to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy. The information herein has been obtained from, and any opinions herein are based upon, sources believed reliable, but ABG Sundal Collier makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions and estimates herein reflect the judgment of ABG Sundal Collier

on the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The compensation of our research analysts is determined exclusively by research management and senior management, but not inc luding

investment banking management. Compensation is not based on specific investment banking revenues, however, it is determined from the profitability of the ABG Sundal Collier Group, which includes earnings from investment banking operations and other business. Investors should assume that ABG Sundal Collier is seeking or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. The

research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report may interact with trading desk and sales personnel and other departments for the purpose of gathering, synthesizing and interpreting market information. From time to time, ABG Sundal Collier and its affiliates and any shareholders, directors, officers or employees thereof may (I) have a position in, or otherwise be interested in, any securit ies directly or indirectly

connected to the subject of this report, or (II) perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other services from, a company mentioned in this report. ABG Sundal Collier relies on information barriers to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas of ABG Sundal Collier, into other areas, units, groups or affiliates of ABG Sundal Collier.

Norway: ABG Sundal Collier ASA is regulated by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet); Sweden: ABG Sundal Collier AB is regulated by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen); UK This report is a communication made, or approved for

communication in the UK, by ABG Sundal Collier Partners LLP, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the conduct of its business. US: This report is being distributed in the United States in accordance with FINRA Rule 1050(f)(3)(B) by ABG Sundal Collier Inc., a FINRA member which accepts responsibility for its content. Research analysts are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA or the

NYSE, and are not associated persons of ABG Sundal Collier Inc. and therefore not subject to FINRA Rule 2241, the research analyst conflict rules. Research reports distributed in the U.S are intended solely for “major institutional investors,” as defined under Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Each U.S major institutional investor that receives a copy of this research report by its acceptance represents that it agrees

it will not distribute this research report to any other person. Any U.S. major institutional investor receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact ABG Sundal Collier Inc., not its affiliates. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained from ABG Sundal Collier Inc., on request.

Singapore: This report is distributed in Singapore by ABG Sundal Collier Pte Ltd, which is not licensed under the Financial Advisers Act (Chapter 110 of Singapore). In Singapore, this report may only be distributed to institutional investors as defined in Section 4A(1)(c ) of the Securities and

Futures Act (Chapter 289 of Singapore) (“SFA”), and should not be circulated to any other person in Singapore. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written express

permission of ABG Sundal Collier. Additional information available upon request. If reference is made in this report to other companies and ABG Sundal Collier provides research coverage for those companies details regarding disclosures may be found on our website www.abgsc.com.

© Copyright 2019 ABG Sundal Collier ASA

Greenmobility Greenmobility Greenmobility Greenmobility Greenmobility Greenmobility Greenmobility

http://www.abgsc.com/

Greenmobility


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