gre argument model essays

7/30/2019 GRE Argument Model Essays

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NEW GRE - ANALYSIS OF AN ARGUMENT

An essay analyzing an Argument is easier to compose than one analyzing an Issue. This isbecause, in the case of an Argument, you have some concrete facts and recommendations in front ofyou to analyze, and do not have to start from scratch.

An argument passage will consist of some facts, some research findings or some opinions of expertsfollowed by some conclusions or recommendations by the author of the argument.

You must recognize each of these and must differentiate among them. You should write a critique ofonly the last, namely the conclusions or recommendations. You should not try to question thecorrectness or accuracy of the first three.

In narrating each Argument, the question setters would have deliberatelyincorporated two or three logical flaws in it. Their intention is to test whether you arecapable of spotting these flaws and commenting on them logically.

An analysis of the pool of 174 Arguments for GRE, released by Educational Testing Service, reveals

that the types of logical flaws that are repeatedly encountered are JUST 14 in number. It is these 14flaws which are incorporated in different contexts in different Argument topics.

The types of these 14 logical flaws are:1. Concluding that because Action A caused Result X a few years ago, a similar action A now will

cause a similar result X.While analyzing an argument containing this flaw, you should point out that the relevant

circumstances might have changed significantly in the last few years, and that the same action may notproduce the same result now. In the context of the given narration, you should enumerate some of thepossible ways in which the circumstances might have changed in the intervening years.

2. Comparing the achievement record of Company A in a particular year (say, 1995) with a betterachievement record of Company B in some other year (say, 2001), and concluding that Company B istherefore more efficiently run than Company A.

While analyzing such an argument, you could point out that the year 1995 was perhaps bad for allcompanies, and that Company B, if it had existed then, might have fared equally badly, or even worse,than Company A in that year. You should also point out that, if the achievement record of Company Afor 2001 is available, it may perhaps be seen that Company A had done even better than Company B in2001, and is therefore the more efficient of the two. You could also state that these two companies maybe in two totally different types of industries and are not comparable at all on the basis of any singlecommon parameter. You may give instances of difference in the nature of these two companies.

3. Concluding that, because Institution A (a college, university, school, town council, state, amagazine, a shop or a supermarket) had taken Action X (such as introducing a new syllabus, a new tax,a new regulation, introducing a new feature, reducing the price, stocking a new item etc.) successfully,Institution B should also take the same Action X to achieve the same result.

You should point out that conditions are perhaps different in the two institutions, and an actionwhich was successful in one may not prove to be equally successful in the other. In the context of thegiven narration, you should enumerate a few possible differences in characteristics between the twoinstitutions.

4. Comparing the efficiency of two organizations A and B (such as two shops, two hospitals, twoschools etc.), on the basis of just a single parameter (such as turnover, or the number of patients whohad died, the number of prizes it won in a certain athletic competition etc.) and concluding that one ismore efficient than the other.

You should point out that a single parameter cannot be used to compare the overall relativeefficiencies of two institutions, and that other factors (such as profit per employee, profit per dollarinvested, or the number of terminally ill patients who had been admitted, academic success of the

students etc.) must also be taken into consideration.

5. Trying to apply the result of a statistical study in a limited area to a much wider area or,conversely, trying to apply the result of a nationwide statistical study to a limited local area. A

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New GRE - Analysis of an Argument

variation of this is the extrapolation of the results of a study over a short period (say, six months) asvalid for a much longer period (such as a decade or a century).

In the former cases, you should point out that conditions in the local area may be significantlydifferent from what is prevalent in the wider geographical area or vice versa, and that, therefore, theresults of a particular statistical study may not be true in both. In the latter case, you should point outhow conditions relevant to the conclusion may have changed over a period over a period of time. In thecontext of the given narration, you should enumerate a few possible differences in conditions that may

arise.

6. Extrapolating the result of a statistical study on a small sample to a much bigger population, or toa totally unrelated group (for example, the result of a medical experiment on rats being applied withoutmodification to human beings).

You should point out that the sample that was studied was perhaps not typical of the generalpopulation, and that what was true of this biased sample may not be true of the total population. In thecontext of the given narration, you can enumerate a few possible ways in which the sample may differfrom the general population.

7. Concluding from a percentage difference (such as 5% or 95%), but without the base figure, thatthe increase/decrease was either high or low.

You should point out that an increase of 90% over a base figure of 100 will be much less than anincrease of only 10% over a base figure of 10,000. Therefore, without knowing the base figure, it is notpossible to judge whether the increase/decrease was high or low. You can cite such figures (whether100, 1000, 10,000 or a million) in the context of the given narration.

8. Concluding that, because Action A will increase the sales revenue of a company, it will alsoincrease its profit. Or, conversely, a decrease in sales turnover will result in a decrease in profit.

You should point out that an increase in sales revenue need not always be attended by an increasein profit, or vice versa. The steps taken to increase the turnover, such as opening new branches,appointing new staff, incurring additional advertisement expenditure, increased transportation,increased interest on capital employed etc., may sometimes result in a decrease in overall profit.Similarly, austerity measures which will save considerable unnecessary expenditure may sometimesresult in a reduction in turnover even while increasing the net profit.

9. Arriving at a certain conclusion on the basis of the opinion expressed by a high percentage (suchas 90%) of those who responded to a survey.

You should ask the questions: What was the total population? What percentage among them wereapproached with a questionnaire or were interviewed? And what percent among these actuallyresponded?

If only 10% of a total population were approached, and only 10% among them responded, then theopinion in favor of the proposed conclusion is that of only 1% of the total population, and it cannot beconsidered to be reflective of that of the whole population.

10. Arriving at a conclusion on the basis of the opinion of, or experiments on, many, several, or anumber of persons or subjects, without actually quantifying these numbers.

You must point out that these vague adjectives may mean any number (say, from 20 to 20,000) andthat, unless they are specifically quantified, it is not possible to come to any reliable conclusion.

11. Concluding that because Event B followed Event A, Event B must have been caused by Event A.(This is known as a causal relationship between A and B).

You must point out that what caused Event B might have no relationship at all to Event A, but wassomething totally different. In the context of the given narration, you can enumerate some of the otherprobable causes for Event B.

12. Arriving at a conclusion on the assumption that the reported number (of a particular illness suchas headache, an accident etc.) is the same as the actual number.

You must point out that not everyone (who had that illness or who had been involved in an accident)might have reported for treatment at a hospital. In the context of the given narration, you may give

possible reasons for their action.

13. Concluding that only one of Event A or Event B can happen under the given circumstances,without considering the possibility that both events can happen simultaneously.


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In such cases, you should, in the light of the given context, give examples of how both events canhappen simultaneously.

14. Stating a possible outcome as an inevitable outcome.In the context of the given narration, you should point out how the project outcome may not

materialize under certain other conditions.

Every given Argument will contain two or three of the 14 types of flaws explained above, cleverlyincorporated within the context of the given narration. These flaws may not be apparent to you duringthe first reading. When you read the narration again carefully, you should be able to spot them andcomment on them as suggested above.

Each Argument topic has been carefully drafted by the question-setters, and every word or phrasein it has a specific reason for being there, and can help you to compose a cogent sentence or two inyour essay.

Each of the following model essays is a first draft by the author and was composed within the giventime limit of 30 minutes, so that it is truly representative of the type of essay that a bright candidate isexpected to write for deserving the highest score of 6.

You can obviously not compose essays before you sit for your GRE on each of the 174 topics given,nor can you memorize all the following essays and reproduce them in the test.

On the other hand, you should not just read the following essays a few times and then imagine thatyou will have no difficulty in composing a similar essay in the test hall if the topic is posed to you. Youshould write essays of your own on at least 25 of the given topics before you sit for your GRE test.

Composing an essay is a difficult art, and the examination hall should not be the placewhere you compose a GRE essay of your own for the first time.

Hallmarks of an effective essayOne of the ways to sound smart while writing an essay is the appropriate use of what are known as

signpost words or phrases.Some of the signpost words and phrases are: For instance, for example, however, on the other

hand, although, unlike, yet, nevertheless, since and therefore.An illustrative examplemay be introduced by the phrases For instance or For example.

Aseries of argumentsmay be introduced by the words First or Firstly, Second or Secondly, ....Finally.

When you wish to contrast two ideas from each other, you can use signpost words such asHowever, On the other hand, Nevertheless, Yet and Contrariwise.

Signpost words and phrases are valuable in many ways. They help the reader to follow yourargument more easily. They make the purpose of every detail, fact, story or example which you usemore obvious.

More important, they make your essay sound well-organized.By emphasizing the structure of your argument, the signpost words prove that you have thought

through the argument rather than rambling aimlessly from one idea to another, and that you have gota plan and you are following it intelligently.

So, look for opportunitiesto use these four kinds of signpost words in your essays:

1. Words that show a contrastor change in idea: although, but, by contrast, despite, however,nevertheless, on the other hand, unlike and yet2. Words that show a similarityor the continuation of an idea: also, as well, equally, in the same

way, likewise, parallely, similarly, so, thus and too

1. Words that show a time sequence: after, before, earlier, later, next, previous, prior to,subsequently and then

2. Words that show a cause and effect relationship: as a result, because, consequently, due to, ledto, produced, resulted in, since and therefore.

Vary the lengths of your sentencesOne sure method of making an essay dull, lifeless and monotonous is to have all its sentences of the

same length.To sound smart, you should consciously try to vary the lengths of your sentences. While some of

your sentences may bee fairly long with two or three subordinate clauses, others must be short withjust five or six words. The changing rhythm of your writing will give your prose a snappy, intelligenttone, and will keep the reader alert and interested.


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Instead of all sentences as narrative ones, you should also try to introduce, in appropriate places ofyour essay, an interrogative (which is in the nature of a question) and an exclamatory sentence.

If you wish to key in your essay instead of handwriting, you can use the limited word processingfeatures of the typing program in the computer that will be made available to you in the test center.

This programme will have three features - cut, paste and undo.In the course of typing an essay, or after completing it, if you wish to delete a word or phrase or

sentence, you can do so by selecting it with your mouse and pressing the cut command.

If you wish to shift a word, phrase or sentence from one place of the essay to another, you can selectit, use the cut command and then, pointing the cursor at the point where you wish to insert it, pressthe paste command.

The word processing software stored in the ETS computer does not have the spell check facility.You can adopt one of the following standard formats for your essay on Analysis of an Argument:

Format 1Para 1:

The argument that (restatement of the conclusion in the given paragraph) is not entirely andlogically convincing because it is based on a few unproven assumptions.

Para 2:First, the argument assumes that ...

Para 3:Second, the argument does not address the question ....

Para 4:Third, the argument omits ....

Para 5:For all these reasons, the argument is not completely sound.

Para 6:The argument might have been strengthened if only the author had ....

Format 2Para 1:

State your position: Restate the argument.Para 2:

Discuss the link (or the absence of it) between the conclusion and the evidence presented in supportof it.

Para 3:Show three deficiencies in the reasoning of the argument.

Para 4:Show how each of the three deficiencies could be plugged by stating the missing assumptions.

Format 3Para 1:

Restate the given argument and say that it has two/three/four flaws.Para 2:

Point out the first flaw and show it could be plugged if only a particular assumption (which is

missing) is made. Para 3:Point out the second flaw, and show it could be plugged only if another specific assumption (which is

missing) is made).Para 4:

Point out the third flaw, and show it could be plugged only if another specific assumption (which ismissing) is made).

Para 5:Summarize your essay with the statement that, because these assumptions have not been stated,

the given argument is weak.

Do not use strong words such as foolish, idiotic or mad to describe a conclusion in the givenargument. Remember that logical flaws are deliberately built into the conclusions for you to notice and

comment upon. The use of words such as illogical and unfounded are quite adequate to describe theselogical flaws.

Wind up your essay with a concluding paragraph as in the model essays below. If you have time, you


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can do a little more elaboration of the final paragraph to state what specific additional information willbe required if the given conclusion is to be considered as valid. In most cases, this will be a restatementof what you have written already.

Remember that there is a time limit of 30 minutes for composing your essay. It is onlyby writing a few essays on your own within this time limit that you can assessbeforehand how many words you will be able to write or type in the test hall. A length of350 to 400 words would be the optimum.

Scoring Guide for Analysis of ArgumentEach Analysis of an Argument essay will be scored on a 0 to 6 scale according to the criteria below.

SCORE 6 - OUTSTANDINGA 6-paper presents a cogent, well-articulated critique of the argument and demonstrates mastery of

the elements of effective writing.A typical paper in this category* clearly identifies important features of the argument and analyzes them insightfully* develops ideas cogently, organizes them logically, and connects them with clear transitions* effectively supports the main points of the critique* demonstrates control of language, including diction and sentence variety* demonstrates felicity with the conventions of standard written English but may have minor flaws

SCORE 5 - STRONGA 5-paper presents a well-developed critique of the argument and demonstrates good control of the

elements of effective writing.A typical paper in this category* clearly identifies important features of the argument and analyzes them in a generally thoughtful

way* develops ideas clearly, organizes them logically, and connects them with appropriate transitions* sensibly supports the main points of the critique* demonstrates control of language, including diction and sentence variety* demonstrates felicity with the conventions of standard written English but may have occasional

flaws.SCORE 4 - ADEQUATE

A 4-paper presents a competent critique of the argument and demonstrates adequate control of theelements of writing.

A typical paper in this category* identifies and analyzes important features of the argument* develops and organizes ideas satisfactorily but may not connect them with transitions* supports the main points of the critique* demonstrates sufficient control of language to convey ideas with reasonable clarity* generally follows the conventions of standard written English but may have flaws

SCORE 3 - LIMITEDA 3-paper demonstrates some competence in its analysis of the argument and in its control of the

elements of writing but is plainly flawed.

A typical paper in this category exhibits one or more of the following characteristics:* does not identify or analyze most of the important features of the argument, although someanalysis of the argument is present

* mainly analyzes tangential or irrelevant matters, or exhibits poor reasoning* is limited in the logical development and organization of ideas* offers support of little relevance and value for points of the critique* does not convey meaning clearly* contains occasional major errors or frequent minor errors in grammar, usage, or mechanics

SCORE 2 - SERIOUSLY FLAWEDA 2-paper demonstrates serious weaknesses in analytical writing skills.A typical paper in this category exhibits one or more of the following characteristics:* does not present a critique based on logical analysis, but may instead present the writers own

views on the subject* does not develop ideas, or is disorganized and illogical* provides little, if any, relevant or reasonable support


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* has serious and frequent problems in the use of language and in sentence structure* contains numerous errors in grammar, usage, or mechanics that interfere with meaning

SCORE 1 - FUNDAMENTALLY DEFICIENT

A 1-paper demonstrates fundamental deficiencies in analytical writing skills. A typical paper in thiscategory exhibits more than one of the following characteristics:

* provides little evidence of the ability to understand and analyze the argument

* provides little evidence of the ability to develop an organized response* has severe and persistent errors in language and sentence structure or both* contains a pervasive pattern of errors in grammar, usage, or mechanics that results in

incoherenceSCORE 0 - OFF TOPIC

Off topic, is written in a foreign language, merely copies the topic, consists only of keystrokecharacters, or illegible, blank, or nonverbal.

We shall now reproduce six essays written by six different candidates on a single argument topicwhich were awarded scores ranging 6 to 0.

Following each essay is the valuers comment on why the essay was awarded that particular score.ARGUMENT Hospital statistics regarding people who go to the emergency room after

rollerskating accidents indicate the need for more protective equipment. Within this group of people, 75percent of those who had accidents in streets or parking lots were not wearing any protective clothing(helmets, knee pads, etc.) or any light-reflecting material (clip-on lights, glow-in-the-dark wrist pads,etc.). Clearly, these statistics indicate that by investing in high-quality protective gear and reflectiveequipment, rollerskaters will greatly reduce their risk of being severely injured in an accident.

(Note: All of these sample essays are reproduced as written. Misspellings, typos, grammaticalerrors, etc. have been retained from the originals.)

Essay that was awarded the score 6 - OutstandingThe notion that protective gear reduces the injuries suffered in

accidents seems at first glance to be an obvious conclusion. After all, it

is the intent of these products to either prevent accidents from occurring

in the first place or to reduce the injuries suffered by the wearer should

an accident occur. However, the conclusion that investing in high qualityprotective gear greatly reduces the risk of being severely injured in an

accident may mask other (and potentially more significant) causes of

injuries and may inspire people to over invest financially and

psychologically in protective gear.

First of all, as mentioned in the argument, there are two distinct

kinds of gear - preventative gear (such as light reflecting material) and

protective gear (such as helmets). Preventative gear is intended to warn

others, presumably for the most part motorists, of the presence of the

roller skater. It works only if the other is a responsible and caring

individual who will afford the skater the necessary space and attention.

Protective gear is intended to reduce the effect of any accident, whether

it is caused by another, the skater or some force of nature. Protectivegear does little, if anything, to prevent accidents but is presumed to

reduce the injuries that occur in an accident. The statistics on injuries

suffered by skaters would be more interesting if the skaters were grouped

into those wearing no gear at all, those wearing protective gear only,

those wearing preventative gear only and those wearing both. These

statistics could provide skaters with a clearer understanding of which

kinds of gear are more beneficial.

The argument above is weakened by the fact that it does not take into

account the inherent differences between skaters who wear gear and those

who do not. It is at least likely that those who wear gear may be

generally more responsible and/or safety conscious individuals. The

skaters who wear gear may be less likely to cause accidents through

careless or dangerous behavior. It may, in fact, be their natural caution

and responsibility that keeps them out of the emergency room rather than

the gear itself. Also, the statistic above is based entirely on those who

are skating in streets and parking lots which are relatively dangerous


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places to skate in the first place. People who are generally more safety

conscious (and therefore more likely to wear gear) may choose to skate in

safer areas such as parks or back yards.

The statistic also goes not differentiate between severity of injuries.

The conclusion that safety gear prevents severe injuries suggests that it

is presumed that people come to the emergency room only with severe

injuries. This is certainly not the case. Also, given that skating is a

recreational activity that may be primarily engaged in during evenings andweekends (when doctors offices are closed), skaters with less severe

injuries may be especially likely to come to the emergency room for

treatment.

Finally, there is absolutely no evidence provided that high quality

(and presumably more expensive) gear is any more beneficial than other

kinds of gear. For example, a simple white shirt may provide the same

preventative benefit as a higher quality, more expensive, shirt designed

only for skating. Before skaters are encouraged to invest heavily in gear,

a more complete understanding of the benefit provided by individual pieces

of gear would be helpful.

The argument for safety gear based on emergency room statistics could

provide important information and potentially saves lives. Before

conclusions about the amount and kinds of investments that should be made

in gear are reached, however, a more complete understanding of the

benefits are needed. After all, a false confidence in ineffective gear

could be just as dangerous as no gear at all.

Valuers Comment on 6This outstanding response demonstrates the writers insightful analytical skills.The introduction, which notes that adopting the prompts fallacious reasoning could inspire people

to overinvest financially and psychologically in protective gear, is followed by a comprehensiveexamination of each of the arguments root flaws. Specifically, the writer exposes several points thatundermine the argument:

* that preventive and protective gear are not the same* that skaters who wear gear may be less prone to accidents because they are, by nature, more

responsible and cautious* that the statistics do not differentiate by the severity of the injuries* that gear may not need to be high quality to be beneficialThe discussion is smoothly and logically organized, and each point is thoroughly and cogently

developed. In addition, the writing is succinct, economical and error-free, Sentences are varied andcomplex, and diction is expressive and precise.

In sum, this essay exemplifies the very top of the 6 range described in the scoring guide, If thewriter had been less eloquent or provided fewer reasons to refute the argument, the essay could stillhave been scored 6.

Essay that was awarded the score 5 - StrongThe argument presented is limited but useful. It indicates a possible

relationship between a high percentage of accidents and a lack of

protective equipment. The statistics cited compel a further investigation

of the usefulness of protective gear in preventing or mitigating roller-

skating related injuries. However, the conclusion that protective gear and

reflective equipment would greatly reduce ... risk of being severely

injured is premature. Data is lacking with reference to the total

population of skaters and the relative levels of experience, skill and

physical coordination of that population. It is entirely possible that

further research would indicate that most serious injury is averted by the

skaters ability to react quickly and skillfully in emergency situations.

Another area of investigation necessary before conclusions can be

reached is identification of the types of injuries that occur and the

various causes of those injuries. The article fails to identify the most

prevalent types of roller-skating related injuries. It also fails to

correlate the absence of protective gear and reflective equipment to thoseinjuries. For example, if the majority of injuries are skin abrasions and

closed-head injuries, then a case can be made for the usefulness of

protective clothing mentioned. Likewise, if injuries are caused by


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collision with vehicles (e.g. bicycles, cars) or pedestrians, then light-

reflective equipment might mitigate the occurrences. However, if the

primary types of injuries are soft-tissue injuries such as torn ligaments

and muscles, back injuries and the like, then a greater case could be made

for training and experience as preventative measures.

Valuers Comment on 5This strong response gets right to the work of critiquing the argument, observing that it indicates

a possible relationship but that its conclusion is premature. It raises three central questions that, ifanswered, might undermine the soundness of the argument:* What are the characteristics of the total population of skaters?* What is the usefulness of protective or reflective gear in preventing or mitigating rollerskating-

related injuries?* What are the types of injuries sustained and their causes?The writer develops each of these questions by considering possible answers that would either

strengthen or weaken the argument. The paper does not analyze the argument as insightfully ordevelop the critique as fully as the typical 6 paper, but the clear organization, strong control oflanguage, and substantial degree of develop-ment warrant more than a score of 4.

Essay that was awarded the score 4 - AdequateAlthough the argument stated above discusses the importance of safety

equipment as significant part of avoiding injury, the statistics quoted

are vague and inconclusive. Simply because 75 percent of the people

involved in roller-skating accidents are not wearing the stated equipment

does not automatically implicate the lack of equipment as the cause of

injury. The term accidents may imply a great variety of injuries. The

types of injuries one could incur by not wearing the types of equipment

stated above are minor head injuries; skin abrasions or possibly bone

fracture of a select few areas such as knees, elbows, hands, etc. (which

are in fact most vulnerable to this sport); and/or injuries due to

practicing the sport during low light times of the day. During any

physically demanding activity or sport people are subjected to a wide

variety of injuries which cannot be avoided with protective clothing or

light-reflective materials. These injuries include inner trauma (e.g.,heart-attack); exhaustion; strained muscles, ligaments, or tendons; etc.

Perhaps the numbers and percentages of people injured during roller-

skating, even without protective equipment, would decrease greatly if

people participating in the sport had proper training, good physical

health, warm-up properly before beginning (stretching), as well as take

other measures to prevent possible injury, such as common-sense, by

refraining from performing the activity after proper lighting has ceased

and knowing your personal limitations as an individual and athlete. The

statistics used in the above reasoning are lacking in proper direction

considering their assertions and therefore must be further examined and

modified so that proper conclusions can be reached. .

Valuers Comment on 4This adequate response targets the arguments vague and inconclusive statistics. The essayidentifies and critiques the illogical reasoning that results from the misguided use of the argumentsstatistics.

* that non-use of equipment may be automatically assumed to be the cause injury* that accidents may refer to minor injuries* that injuries may result from other causes skating in the dark, failure to train or warm-up

properly, failure to recognize ones physical limitations.The writer competently grasps the weaknesses of the argument. The ideas are clear and connected,

but the essay lacks transitional phrases. Development too is only adequate. Control of language isbetter than adequate. The writer achieves both control and clarity and ably conforms to theconventions of written English. Overall, though, the 4 essay lacks the thorough development of atypical 5 response.

Essay that was awarded the score 3 . LimitedThe argument is well presented and supported, but not completely well

reasoned. It is clear and concisely written. The content is logically and


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smoothly presented. Statistics cited are used to develop support for the

recommendation, that roller skaters who invest in protective gear and

reflective equipment can reduce their risk of severe, accidental

injuries. Examples of the types of protective equipment are described for

the reader. Unfortunately, the author of the argument fails to note that

merely by purchasing gear and reflective equipment that the skater will

be protected. This is, of course, fallacious if the skater fails to use

the equipment, or uses it incorrectly or inappropriately. It is also anunnecessary assumption that a skater need purchase high- quality gear for

the same degree of effectiveness to be achieved. The argument could be

improved by taking these issues into consideration, and making

recommendations for education and safety awareness to skaters.

Valuers Comment on 3The first half of this generally well-written but limited response merely describes the argument.

The second half of the paper identifies two assumptions of the argument:* that people who purchase protective gear will use the gear* that high-quality gear is more effective than other gearNeither of these analytic points is developed adequately; together, however, they are sufficient to

constitute some analysis and thus warrant a score of 3.

Essay that was awarded the score 2 - Seriously FlawedTo reduce the accidents from roller skating we should consider about

it causes and effects concurrently to find the best solution. Basically

the roller-skating players are children, they had less experiences to

protect themselves from any kind of dangerous. Therefore, it should be a

responsible of adult to take care them. Adult should recommend their

child to wear any protective clothing, set the rules and look after them

while they are playing.

In the past roller-skating is limited in the skate yard but when it

became popular people normally play it on the streetway. Therefore the

number of accidents from roller-skating is increased. The skate manufac-

turer should have a responsibility in producing a protective clothing.

They should promote and sell them together with skates. The governmentor state should set the regulation of playing skate on the street way

like they did with the bicycle.

To prevent this kind of accident is the best solution but it needs a

cooperation among us to have a conscious mind to beware and realize its

dangerous.

Valuers Comment on 2This seriously flawed response, rather than critiquing the argument, suggests ways for adults and

skate manufacturers to ensure that children wear protective clothing. In essence, the writer isuncritically accepting the argument.

The response exhibits serious and frequent problems in sentence structure and language use.Errors of word choice, verb tenses, subject-verb agreement, punctuation are numerous and sometimes

interfere with meaning; It needs a cooperation among us to have a conscious mind to beware andrealize its dangerous.This essay earns a score of 2 because it demonstrates both serious linguistic weaknesses and

failure to construct a critique based on logical analysis.

Essay that was awarded the score 1 - Fundamentally Deficientthe protective equipment do help to reduce the risk of being severely

injured in an accident since there are 75% of those who had accidents in

streets or parking lots were not wearing any protective clothing such as

hemlets, kenn pads, etc. or any light-reflecting materials such as clip-

on lights, glow-in-the-dark wrist pads etc. if they do have protective

equipment that only a quarter accident may happen, also that can greatly

reduce their risk of being severyly injuryed in an accident, that can

save some lives and a lot of energy and money for the treatmenttheprotective equipment do help to reduce the risk of being severyly

injuryed in an accident since there are 75 Of those who had accidents in

streets or parking lots were not wearing any protectivel clothing. such


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as hemlets, kenn pads,etc. or any light-reflecting materials such as

clip-on lights, glow-in-the-dark wrist pads ets. if they do have

protective eqipment that only a quarter accident may happen, also that

can greatly reduce their risk of being severyly injuryed in an accident,

that can save some lives and a lot of energy and money for the treatment.

the protective equipment do help to reduce the risk of being severyly

injuryed in an accident since there are 75 of those who had accidents in

streets or parking lots were not wearing any protective clothing. such ashemlets, kenn pads, etc. or any light -reflecting materials such as clip-

on lights, glow-in-the-dark wrist pads ets. if they do have protective

eqipment that only a quarter accident may happen, also that can greatly

reduce their risk of being severyly injuryed in an accident, that can

save some lives and a lot of energy and money for the treatment.

Valuers comment on 1This fundamentally deficient response uncritically accepts the reasoning of the prompt: the

protective equipment do help to reduce the risk of being severyly injuryed in an accident... There is noevidence, though, that the writer is able to understand or analyze the argument; what follows, exceptfor a few additional words, merely copies the prompt. This two-sentence response is repeated -verbatim - over and over. Language and usage are equally problematic. The few words that have beenadded, in combination with the words of the prompt, result in incoherence. In sum, this essay fits all ofthe scoring guide descriptors for a score of 1.

We give below an essay on a different argument which was awarded the score of 6.ARGUMENT: The following appeared as part of an article in a daily newspaper.The computerized onboard warning system that will be installed in commercial airlines will

virtually solve the problem of midair plane collisions. One planes warning system can receive signalsfrom anothers transponder - a radio that signals a planes course - in order to determine the likelihoodof a collision and recommend evasive action

Essay that was awarded the score 6 - OutstandingThe argument that the new warning system will virtually solve the

problem of midair plane collisions omits some important concerns that

must be addressed to substantiate the argument.

The statement that follows the description of what this warning systemwill do simply describes the system and how it operates. This alone does

not constitute a logical argument in favor of the warning system, and it

certainly does not provide support or proof of the main argument.

Most conspicuously, the argument does not address the cause of the

problem of midair plane collisions, the use of the system by pilots and

flight specialists, or who is involved in the midair plane collisions.

First, the argument assumes that the cause of the problem is that the

planes courses, the likelihood of collisions, and actions to avoid

collisions are presently unknown or inaccurate. In a weak attempt to

support its claim, the argument describes a system that makes all of

these things accurately known. But if the cause of the problem of midair

plane collisions is that pilots are not paying attention to their

computer systems or flight operations, the warning system will not solve

the collision problem.

Second, the argument does not address the interface between indi-

viduals and the system and how this will affect the warning systems

objective of obliterating the problem of collisions. If the pilot or

flight specialist does not conform to what the warning system suggests,

midair collisions will not be avoided.

Finally, if planes other than commercial airlines are involved in the

collisions, the problem of the collisions cannot be solved by a warning

system that will not be installed on non-commercial airlines. The

argument also does not address what would happen in the event that the

warning system collapses, falls, or does not work properly.

Because the argument leaves out several key issues, it is not sound orpersuasive. If it included the items discussed above instead of solely

explaining what the system supposedly does, the argument would have been

more thorough and convincing.


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Valuers Comment on 6This response is, as the scoring guide requires of a 6 essay, cogent and well articulated; all the

points made not only bear directly on the argument to be analyzed but also contribute to a single,integrated develop-ment of the writers critique.

The writer begins by making the controlling point that a mere description of the warning systemsmode of operation cannot serve as a true argument proving the systems effectiveness, since thedescription overlooks several major considerations.

The writer then identifies these considerations - what causes midair collisions, how pilots willactually use the commercial airline warning system, what kinds of airplanes are typically involved inmidair collisions - and, citing appropriate counter samples (e.g., what if pilots do not pay attention totheir instruments), explains fully how each oversight undermines the connection that the warningsystem will virtually eliminate midair plane collisions.

Throughout, the writer complements the logically organized development of this critique with good,clear prose that demonstrates the ability not only to control language and vary sentence structure butalso to express ideas forcibly (e.g., the argument does not address the interface between individualsand the system).

Of course, as in any response written under time constraints, occasional minor flaws can be found.For example, the argument assumes that the cause of the problem is that the planes courses, thelikelihood of collisions, and actions to avoid collisions are unknown or inaccurate is wordy andimprecise; how can a course, a likelihood, or actions be inaccurate? But flaws such as these, minor andinfrequent, do not interface with the overall clarity and forcefulness of this outstanding response.

Example of an essay on another argument which was awarded the score 6ARGUMENT: The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local

newspaper: Motorcycle X has been manufactured in the United States for over 70 years. Although oneforeign company has copied the motorcycle and is selling it for less, the company has failed to attractmotorcycle Xs customers - some say because its product lacks the exceptionally loud noise made bymotorcycle X. But there must be some other explanation. After all, foreign cars tend to be quieter thansimilar American-made cars, but they sell at least as well. Also, television advertisements formotorcycle X highlight its durability and sleek lines, not its noisiness, and the ads typically have voice-overs or rock music rather than engine-roar on the sound track.

The author disagrees with those who attribute the relativenonpopularity of the foreign motor cycle vis-a-vis US-made motorcycle X

to its lacking the exceptionally loud noise made by motorcycle X.

He advances two arguments why there must be some other explanation

for the phenomenon. The first is that foreign cars tend to be quieter

than similar US-made cars, but they sell at least as well.

In advancing this argument, the author makes the assumption that the

personality profiles of buyers of cars are similar to those of buyers of

motorcycles - in terms of taste, income, age, expectations etc and that,

therefore the behavior of buyers of cars can be extrapolated to judge

the behavior of buyers of motorcycles.

This assumption is questionable, because, as is well known,

motorcycles are mostly driven by youngsters who are either in their

teens or in their early twenties, whereas cars are used by persons who

are older and more mature, and by women. Youth are usually interested in

impressing others (particularly girls) with their derring-do and speed,

and they have a tendency to associate speed with noise.

Therefore, the fact that noise is not one of the criteria used by car

buyers does not prove that it is not one of the major criteria for

buyers of motorcycles.

In fact, the second argument given by the author itself weakens the

first. He points out, the TV ads for motorcycle X typically have voice-

overs or rock music rather than engine-roar on the sound track. The

very fact that the ads for motorcycle X do not usuallly feature soft

music, but rock music (which is generally quite noisy and which usually

appeals to youth more than older persons) shows that the manufacturersof motorcycle X know their potential buyers, and consider the noise made

by the vehicle as an important selling point to them. The fact that the

engine roar is not on the sound track does not belittle its importance


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because creative advertisements do not say things crudely or openly, but

make more subtle suggestions,- through rock music in this case rather

than through the actual engine roar. The emphasis of TV ads on

motorcycle Xs durability and sleek lines only implies that the

manufacturer thinks that the prospective customers are already aware of

its noise potential, and the other attributes that they are not aware

of must be highlighted in the advertisements.

So, the two arguments given by the author do not by themselves ruleout exceptional sound being the possible reason for the greater

popularity of motorcycle X in USA than the foreign-made model which has

copied all its other features except the noise.

To buttress his conclusion, the author must have cited examples of

other US-made motorcycles which sell at least as well as motorcycle X in

spite of not making the same type of noise as the latter. Or how, in its

own country of manufacture, the prototype of motorcycle X has been a

great success with the youth of that country in spite of the fact that

it does not make that much noise.

Another flaw in the authors argument is that, apart from debunking

the noise theory, he himself does not hint at any other more convincing

explanation for the greater popularity of motorcycle X vis-a-vis its

foreign-made clone.

In the following pages, we shall give you model essays on as many as 50

Arguments many of which are from the present pool of GRE Argument Topics.


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ANALYSIS OF ARGUMENTSMODEL ESSAYS

Each of the following model essays is a first draft by the author and was composed within the giventime limit of 30 minutes, so that it is truly representative of the type of essay that a bright candidate isexpected to write for deserving the highest score of 6.

You can obviously not compose essays before you sit for your GRE on each of the 174 topics given, norcan you memorize all the following essays and reproduce them in the test.

On the other hand, you should not just read the following essays a few times and then imagine that youwill have no difficulty in composing a similar essay in the test hall if the topic is posed to you. You shouldwrite essays of your own on at least 15 of the given topics before you sit for your GRE. Composing an essayis a difficult art, and the examination hall should not be the place where you compose a GRE essay of yourown for the first time.

Remember that there is a time limit of 30 minutes for composing your essay. It is only by writing afew essays on your own within this time limit that you can assess beforehand how many words you willbe able to write or type in the test hall. A length of 350 to 400 words would be the optimum.

(In the case of the first few model essays below, we have first indicated the types of flaws in thegiven argument. You can take them as the guidance for reviewing the subsequent arguments.)

1. Natures Way chain of stores

The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Natures Way, a chain ofstores selling health food and other health-related products. Previous experience has shown that ourstores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. Weshould therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsvillemerchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local healthclub, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and theweight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers:Plainsvilles school-children are required to participate in a fitness for life program, which emphasizes

the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.(The basic flaw in the given argument is the use of vague phrases such as many such residents, all-

time highs, and more members than ever which do not have any specific quantitative meaning. Youshould build your essay on this fundamental defect.)

Any proposal for a new commercial venture must concentrate on its financial viability, andmust contain specific projections of anticipated turnover, cost of goods, gross profit, overheadexpenses and net profit. The memorandum of the Vice President is silent on each of thesepoints.

Firstly, for any such venture to be viable, there ought to be a break-even turnover whichthe Vice President of any leading chain stores must be aware of. His memorandum does notcontain a single specific figure, but talks generally of many such residents, all-time highsand more members than ever, which do not have any numerical certainty.

Secondly, the memorandum does not even indicate whether Plainsville is a small or a largevillage, or a small or a large town. It has no information about its population. If the totalpopulation of Plainsville is 1000 (of whom only about 600 are likely to be adults), the fact thatmany of them are concerned about leading healthy lives may not justify the establishment ofa new store of Natures Way there. On the other hand, if the population of Plainsville is above100,000, the proposal would look more rosy.

Thirdly, the fact that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing in Painsville are all-timehighs does not also strengthen the argument, because such all-time high may be just $500 inthe whole year, the figure in the previous years having been even less.

Fourthly, the memorandum says that the local health club, which nearly closed down fiveyears ago, has more members than ever. This vague figure of more members than ever maybe anything like 50 or 1000. Obviously, the proposal will have some validity if the number is1000, but will have no justification at all if the number is only 50.

Fifthly, the memorandum talks of the business that will be generated by school children,again without giving any information about their number. If there is only one school inPlainsville with less than 200 students, then the proposal will not be justified. If it has anumber of schools with a total enrollment of 10,000, there will be some merit in the proposal.


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Strangely, the proposal is silent about existing competition. Even if all the vague phrases inthe memorandum refer to fairly appreciable numbers, the existence of similar stores alreadyin Plainsville with their own loyal and satisfied clientele might render the new store ofNatures Way non-viable.

The memorandum makes the bland assertion that our next new store must be built inPlainsville. Before making this categorical statement, the vice president must have discussedthe merits of other possible alternative locations for the next new store, and then made out a

convincing case why Plainsville is a better candidate than all of them.Thus, the proposal would have validity if he had quantified all the vague phrases which hehas used, had made specific financial projections, discussed existing competition and alsocompared the merits of Plainsville with those of other possible locations for the next store.

Therefore, as it stands, the memorandum cannot be of any help to the management ofNatures Way to come to an informed decision.

(Note how almost all bits of information contained in the given argument have beentouched upon and analyzed in this essay.)

2. Deerhaven Acres & Brookville Community

The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres toall homeowners in Deerhaven Acres. Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community

adopted a set of restrictions on how the communitys yards should be landscaped and what colors theexteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. Inorder to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions onlandscaping and house painting.

(The major flaw in the given argument is that it presumes that, just because Event B followed EventA, Event B was caused by Event A. It does not consider the possibility that there could be other morevalid reasons for the occurrence of Event B. You should develop your essay on this flaw, and think of asmany other reasons as you can. You can also argue that what proved true in the case of Brookville maynot prove true in the case of Deerhaven.)

The committees argument is based on the assumption that it was only the new set ofrestrictions on landscaping and coloring of home exteriors that contributed to the tripling ofproperty values in Brookville in the last seven years.

The argument is weak because it does not consider other possible reasons for suchincrease.

For example, the setting up of a new big industrial unit in Brookville in the interveningperiod which created hundreds of new employment opportunities, could have been the realreason for the increase in its property values.

A second possibility is that a new university or a major government laboratory has been setup in Brookville, and this had pushed up the property prices in that locality.

A third possibility is that property values in Brookville seven years back had been muchlower than in neighboring counties because of the existence of a highly polluting industrythere. The industry may have been closed down during the last seven years resulting in thesevalues getting tripled.

A fourth possibility is that, in spite of the stated increase, the property values in Brookvilleare still lower than those in Deerhaven, and people from Deerhaven are themselves moving

into Brookville. If so, mere changes in landscaping and wall coloring are not likely tocontribute to an increase in property values in Deerhaven.

Another possibility is that a major non-polluting industry in Deerhaven has closed downrecently, throwing a large number of people out of employment. If so, the property values inDeerhaven will crumble, and will not increase just because of changes in landscaping andsimilar rules.

Above all, common sense dictates that the mere changing of color schemes of exteriors ofbuildings or the landscaping of the open yards do not triple property values in a large area.

Therefore, the argument in the committees letter is least convincing as it stands. Tobuttress the proposal, the committee will have to conclusively establish that no other reasonexcept what they have stated in their letter had triggered the increase in Brookvilles propertyvalues, and that no other adverse factor is presently pulling down the property values in

Deerhaven.


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3. Megalopoliss law firmsThe following appeared in a newspaper article about law firms in the city of Megalopolis. In Mega-lopolis,

the number of law school graduates who went to work for large, corporate firms declined by 15 percentover the last three years, whereas an increasing number of graduates took jobs at small, general practicefirms. Even though large firms usually offer much higher salaries, law school graduates are choosing towork for the smaller firms most likely because they experience greater job satisfaction at smaller firms.In a survey of first year students at a leading law school, most agreed with the statement that earning a

high salary was less important to them than job satisfaction. This finding suggests that the large, corporatefirms of Megalopolis will need to offer graduates more benefits and incentives and reduce the number ofhours they must work.

(This argument does not consider any alternative reason for the stated result, uses the vague phraseincreasing number without quantifying it, and incorporates a contradiction in the last two sentences.You should develop your essay highlighting these points.)

From the fact that the number of law school graduates who went to work for large,corporate firms declined by 15 percent in the last three years, and an increasing number oflaw school graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms, the author comes to theconclusion that law school graduates are choosing to work for the smaller firms inpreference to large firms.

This conclusion is questionable because it does not consider the possibility that all thesestudents too had applied for jobs in large firms but could not be accommodated by the latterbecause of a general decline in their type of business; and had no choice but to join thesmaller firms.

The second flaw in the argument arises out of the non-quantification of the phraseincreasing number. If the number of law school graduates joining large firms had declinedby a mere 30 from 200 to 170 in the last three years, and the number who had joined small,general practice firms during this period had increased by a mere 10 from 20 to just 30, onecan still conclude, contrary to what the author says, that large firms continue to be thepreference of a large number of law school graduates.

Thirdly, as the reason for the unsubstantiated preference of law graduates for small firms,the author cites the opinion of first year students that earning a high salary was lessimportant to them than job satisfaction. There are two problems with this argument: (i) Canthe opinion of first year students be extrapolated as representing the opinion of a majority of

law school graduates? (ii) Is there justification for the implied assumption that working inlarge firms is incompatible with job satisfaction?

It is quite likely that students who are idealistic in their first year in law college becomemore practical or mercenary when they are about to graduate. They may then consider that itis working in big firms that will give them greater job satisfaction because of the wideropportunities that they will get there to handle different types of legal problems.

Finally, the last sentence in the article does not follow logically from the previousassertions and, in fact, contradicts them. If law students are not lured by high salary butprefer job satisfaction, why does the author argue that large firms must offer more benefitsand incentives in order to attract them? And where has he cited evidence that one need workfor shorter hours in smaller firms than in larger firms?

For the foregoing reasons, the argument advanced in the article does not have much force.

4. Adams Realty & Fitch Realty

The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site. Of the two leading real estatefirms in our town - Adams Realty and Fitch Realty - Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estateagents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams revenue lastyear was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared toFitchs $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home withFitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it withAdams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price,you should use Adams.

(Realty is the business of acting as a broker between a seller and a buyer in real estatetransactions. The flaws in this argument are: judging the relative competence of two firms on the basis

of just two or three parameters, and comparing a 10-year-old event with a 1-year-old event to judge therelative competence of the two firms. You should build your essay around these flaws.)It is on highly specious grounds that the author of this notice wants the readers to believe

that Adams Realty is more efficient than Fitch Realty.


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Firstly, the statistics given in the first two sentences merely show that Adams has morehuman resources than Fitch. This does not, by itself, warrant the conclusion that Adams isclearly superior.

In fact, the given statistics may themselves be interpreted to prove the contrary: If Fitchhas 50% as much revenue as Adams has, but with only 3/8 as many real estate agents as thelatter has (and they too working only part-time), it is Fitch which should be considered as themore efficient between the two!

Secondly, the efficiency of a real estate agent (from the point of view of the seller) must beassessed on the basis of how much higher price than the market value of the property that heis able to get for his client. It is quite probable that the average market value of theproperties sold by Fitch was only $125,000 but this firm was able to get an average price of$144,000 for its clients; similarly, the average market value of the properties sold by Adamsmight have really been $175,000, but it was able to get an average price of only $168,000 forits clients. If this be the real case, who between the two can be named more efficient?Obviously Fitch, and not Adams!

Thirdly, the author compares his experience in employing Fitch ten years back with hisexperience with using Adams last year, and recommends the latter to other prospectiveproperty sellers. This argument is highly questionable because he does not account for thepossibility that the real estate market was bearish ten years back with very few buyers in themarket, but had turned highly bullish last year. It also does not consider the possibility thatthe average time taken by Fitch to sell properties last year was less than one month, a betterrecord than that of Adams.

For the above reasons, the recommendation that Adams must be used in preference toFitch both for quickness of the transaction and for getting a higher price is not logicallyestablished by the stated reasons, and requires much more relevant and reliable data before itcan be acted upon by other prospective property sellers.

5. Becton Pharmaceuticals & Perkins Pharmaceuticals

The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper. Given that the number of people inour country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the nexttwenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should bevery profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon,the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. Butthe patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaperversion of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceuticalcompany will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studiesshow is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases ofarthritis.

(You should first identify which are the facts or the opinions of others and which are theconclusions of the author, and then write a critique on only the conclusions of the author.

The probable rise in the number of arthritis patients from 40 million to 60 million is a generalassumption, while pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis shouldbe very profitable is a conclusion of the author. Similarly, Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makesXenon, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company is the belief of many analysts, while the

authors conclusion is that Perkins Pharmaceuticals is more likely to be the winner. You should writea critique of only these two conclusions of the author.)

While the increase in the number of arthritis patients in the next twenty years is likely toresult in the increase in the sales of drugs for arthritis, it does not warrant the conclusionthat pharmaceutical companies which produce drugs for arthritis should therefore be veryprofitable.

Firstly, a higher turnover does not always result in a higher profit, since the price of rawmaterials may go up without the company being able to pass on the higher cost arisingtherefrom to the consumer.

Secondly, if a large number of pharmaceutical firms start manufacturing Xenon after itspatent expires in the next three years, the market is likely to get highly fragmented, and theresulting price war may result in a situation of low profit for the entire industry

manufacturing this drug.Moreover, the author does not envisage the possibility that non-drug-based cures forarthritis (such as laser treatment) may be developed within the next twenty years resulting inlower consumption of drugs for arthritis.


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Seen from this angle, the first assertion of the author is not as sound as it prima facieappears to be.

The second conclusion of the author that Perkins Pharmaceuticals will be more profitablethan Becton Pharmaceuticals is based on the research finding that seven out of ten patientssuffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis prefer Xylan to Xenon. This conclusionwill be valid only if most of the additional 20 million arthritis patients of the next twenty yearsare afflicted by the most extreme cases of arthritis. If, on the other hand, most of these new

incidences of arthritis are of less serious varieties which can be cured through theadministration of milder drugs, it is Xenon (or its equivalents) which will have a largermarket. Consequently the authors prognosis will fail.

Moreover, his statement that other companies will produce cheaper versions of Xenon thanBecton can is also not logically sound, because a depreciated plant as that of Becton can mostprobably produce the drug much cheaper than any new plant that starts manufacturing thesame drug.

For the foregoing reasons, it is not possible to concur with the forecasts of the author ofthis article merely on the basis of the evidence and the reasons cited by him.

6. Monroes new Jazz Club

The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of develop-ers

in the city of Monroe. A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently,the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local marketall to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroes jazz festivallast summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program inMonroe is Jazz Nightly, which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that thetypical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannothelp but make money.

(You should first sift between the facts and the conclusions contained in the note. The facts are:Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away from Monroe; over 100,000 people attended Monroesjazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; the highest rated radioprogram in Monroe is Jazz Nightly; and the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazzentertainment.

The conclusions in the loan application are: A jazz club in Monroe would be a tremendously popularenterprise; the proposed club - C Note - would have the local market all to itself; jazz is extremelypopular in Monroe; and it is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money.

Note that the given note is contained in an application for a small business loan by a group ofdevelopers.

You have to critically assess whether the conclusions follow from the stated facts.)In spite of the stated facts, namely, that several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe,

that the highest rated radio program in Monroe is Jazz Nightly, and that over 100,000 peopleattended Monroes jazz festival last year, the note states that there is no jazz club presently inMonroe, and that the nearest one is 65 miles away.

This means that, in spite of these favorable factors, either nobody had ventured in the pastto start a jazz club in this city, or the clubs started here earlier had closed down.

There must have been some valid reasons for this phenomenon, but the note does not even

attempt to probe into such reasons. If no such club had been started in the past, the applicantsfor the loan would have to explain why such an obvious business proposition had not occurredto anyone else earlier. If jazz clubs that had been started earlier had closed down, theapplicants must have given reasons for such closures, and should have indicated how theypropose to avoid the mistakes, if any, committed by earlier promoters.

Secondly, it must be noted that the population size of Monroe is not mentioned anywherein the note. It is quite probable that a majority of those who attended last years Monroe JazzFestival had come from outside. Therefore, this figure of 100,000 cannot be taken to beindicative of the size of the local population.

Moreover, it is intriguing why several well-known jazz musicians should be living inMonroe when it does not have a jazz club and the nearest club is as far as 65 miles away. Onepossible explanation is that Monroe is a small, prestigious, exclusive and upmarket

community of very rich persons and with a salubrious climate. If this is true, such a smallpopulation will not be able to economically sustain a viable jazz club.Even assuming that there is a good potential for starting a jazz club in Monroe, the

credentials of the applicants for the loan to run it successfully are not established. The


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preamble to the note says that the proposal has been submitted by a group of developers. Thecompetence of a set of property developers to run a music club successfully is open toquestion. The note does not indicate how they propose to overcome their lack of relevantexperience to run such a club.

Even if all the data stated in the note are true, it only establishes there is potential forestablishing a jazz club in Monroe. The statements that it would prove to be a tremendouslyprofitable enterprise, and it cannot help but make money are not substantiated with any

figures involving investment, revenue or expenditure. It is quite likely that, in order to exploitthe full business potential, a much larger investment than a small business loan will beneeded. If this is true, the promoters may not achieve the full potential with the proposedlimited investment.

It is stated that the average annual expenditure of $1000 on jazz entertainment is based ona nationwide survey. In the absence of any information about the economic condition ofMonroe residents, it is not possible to assume that their average expenditure on jazzentertainment will amount to the same figure.

Even assuming that, to start with, the local jazz market may belong fully to C Note, itssuccess may trigger off competition quickly. If new clubs emerge with better attractions, moreefficient management and more aggressive marketing, C Note may suffer financially and maynot continue to remain profitable.

In my view, the application for a loan by the intending promoters of the club has to becarefully examined in the light of the above-mentioned reservations.

(Note how this essay picks logical holes in a seemingly sound proposition.)

7. Clearview mayoral election

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper. In the next mayoralelection, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good EarthCoalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the currentmembers are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number offactories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital hastreated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green,the environmentalproblems in Clearview will certainly be solved.

(The facts contained in the letter to the newspaper are that Frank Braun is a member of thepresent Clearview town council; the number of factories in Clearview has doubled during the past yearair pollution levels have increased; and the local hospital has treated 25% more patients withrespiratory illnesses.The conclusions drawn by the writer are that the current members of the towncouncil are not protecting the environment; residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green who is amember of the Good Earth Coalition, and that, if she is elected, the environmental problems inClearview will certainly be solved. It is these conclusions which you must examine critically.)

In advocating that residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green in the next Mayoralelection for the reason she will certainly solve the environmental problems in the town, thewriter is presuming that the most important problem of the town is environmental, and thatthe decision of the voters should be based on this single issue alone. But he does not givesufficient data to validate this presumption.

The statement that air pollution levels have increased in the past year does not, by itself,

imply that they have reached anywhere near intolerable limits. If the tolerable level of airpollution is, say, 500 particulates in a cubic meter of air, and the level in Clearview hadincreased in the past one year from 50 particulates to 55 particulates in a cubic meter of air,there is no need to feel jittery about the increase. If such be the case, ones voting preferenceshould clearly not be determined by such an insignificant increase in the pollution level.

Secondly, the statement that the local hospital has treated 25% more patients withrespiratory illnesses in the last year does not, by itself, establish that the problem has becomeacute. If, in a population of 100,000, the number of patients treated for respiratory illness hadincreased from 100 to 125, it does not constitute a valid reason for ringing the alarm bell. So,unless the writer cites exact figures of such patients vis-a-vis the total population of the town,it is not possible to agree with his conclusion that the current members are not protecting theenvironment.

The refrain of the writer is that, for the Mayors post, Ann Green must be preferred toFrank Braun because the latter is a member of the present council. Even assuming that thepresent council had taken certain decisions which had adversely affected environmentalconditions in Clearview, Frank Braun cannot be held responsible unless it is shown that he


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had actively supported those decisions. It is quite likely that Frank Braun had stoutly opposedthose measures but he was overruled by the majority of the other members in the council. Inthe absence of any information on this aspect, one can even presume that Frank Braun is amore ardent supporter of environment than Ann Green. In that case, the writers advocacy ofAnn Greens candidature vis-a-vis Frank Braun would be misplaced.

The writer makes it appear that, in selecting the new mayor, the predominantconsideration should be his/her commitment to environment, but he does not give any

unassailable justification for his view. If, on the contrary, the most serious problem ofClearview is lack of employment for its residents, then a person who lays emphasis on greatereconomic activity and who takes steps to accelerate industrial growth in the town would proveto be a better Mayor.

Finally, the assertion in the last sentence, If we elect Ann Green, the environmentalproblems in Clearview will certainly be solved is also questionable because the majority ofnewly elected members of the towns council may continue to be the opponents of the GoodEarth Coalition.

For the foregoing reasons, the writer of the letter has not made out a convincing case forvoting for Ann Green in the next mayoral election.

8. Omni Inc and Mesa FoodsThe following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning department at Omni Inc.

Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a relativelysmall region of the country, has strong growth potential. Mesa enjoyeda 20 percent increase in profitslast year, and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the pastthree years. Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumesthe most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing DiaboliqueSalsa throughout the country.

(The facts in this case are: Mesa Foods is a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets itsproducts within a relatively small region of the country; Mesa enjoyed a 20% increase in profits lastyear; its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past threeyears; Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds.

The opinions or conclusions of the writer of the note are: Mesa Foods has strong growth potential;Omni Inc should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa

throughout the country.It is the latter which we should critically examine in the light of the facts stated first.)

The proposal in this case is that a company, Mesa Foods, which has been concentrating onmarketing its snack foods within a small area, must be purchased by a nationwide company,Omni Inc.. The reason cited is that the main snack food produced by the former, namelyDiabolique Salsa, can be marketed throughout the nation successfully.

In order to buttress his recommendation, the author says that Mesa Foods enjoyed a 20%increase in profit last year. This statement by itself is not forceful unless the increase in profitis quantified and not given in terms of a vague percentage. If the profit had increased merelyfrom $1000 to $1200, the argument would not have much merit. But, if the profits in the twosuccessive years had been 1 million dollars and 1.2 million dollars, the recommendation wouldbe quite convincing. The absence of the exact figures of profits in the two successive years

renders the recommendation rather hollow.Equally vague is the statement that Diabolique Salsa, Mesa Foods best-selling product, hashad increased sales over each of the past three years. The recommendation would be valid ifthe increases had been in the region of 200%, 500% and 800%, but would have no force if theincreases had been a uniform 10%, that too on an already small base. Thus, this statementalso does not add strength to the recommendation because of its vagueness.

Another questionable assumption in the given note is that a snack food that has been foundto be popular with youths in a limited geographical region of the country will be equallypopular with youths in the whole country. If the population of the region in which DiaboliqueSalsa is presently marketed is predominantly of a particular ethnic group, say Mexicans, theirfavorite food may not enjoy the same popularity with the youths of the whole country, most ofwhom belong to various other ethnic groups.

There is also no information in the note about the core competene of Omni Inc., what is its

present line of business and whether there will be sinergy between its present business andsnack foods. If it is already in snack foods business, it is quite likely that promoting MesaFoodssalsa could reduce the sales of its existing products, thereby adversely affecting itsturnover and profits.


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Finally, the note does not give any indication about the price at which Mesa Foods could beacquired and gives no projection about the increased sales and profitability to justify itsacquisition at that price.

For the foregoing reasons, the recommendation cannot be acted upon straightaway withoutfurther detailed examination of the issues pointed out above.

9. Omega & Alpha Universities

The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University. Fifteen years ago,Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teachingeffectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign highergrades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent.Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated; this would explain whyOmega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby AlphaUniversity. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should now terminatestudent evaluation of professors.

(The main flaw in this recommendation is the attribution of a particular result to a specific singlecause without examining other possible causes. You should build your essay on this theme.)

In this note, the dean of Omega University makes an unfounded insinuation that, in orderto gain popularity with their students and thereby to get a better rating from them, professorsin the university are deliberately assigning higher grades to their students than what thelatter deserve. According to him, this is the reason why Omega graduates are not assuccessful in securing jobs as are graduates from the nearby Alpha University.

On the basis of this reasoning, the dean recommends that Omega should terminate thepractice of evaluation of the professors by the students.

The major flaw in his argument is that he attributes the increase in the overall studentgrade averages by 30% during the past 15 years solely to the alleged wish of the professors toplacate their students in order to get a higher rating from them. He does not examine thepossibility that such increase might have been due to stricter norms in the admission ofstudents during the same period, because of which Omega is now having relatively brighterstudents than what it used to enroll.

On the contrary, the increase in the student grade average could also have been becauseOmega had dispensed with the services of inefficient professors on the basis of the students

evaluation about them, and has now recruited more competent professors who teach better.A second inference by the dean is that the reason why Omega alumni are not as successful

in securing jobs as Alpha alumni are is that the prospective employers believe that thestudent grade averages of the former are inflated. This also suffers from the same flaw of notexamining other possible reasons for the state of affairs. It is quite likely that the coursesoffered by Alpha have been periodically updated to be more in tune with the needs of the jobmarket while Omega has been sticking to its conventional courses which have becomeirrelevant in the market place.

Moreover, it is also possible that the placement office of Alpha has more competentpersonnel than that of Omega. If this is the case, Omega graduates will be able to get a betterdeal if this university also strengthens its placement office instead of going back on thestudent assessment scheme.

Paradoxically, the deans note does not state that Alpha University does not follow thepolicy of student evaluation of faculty. If the same practice is being followed in Alpha also, thebottom is taken out of the deans argument.

Assuming that the deans reasoning is valid and the student evaluation of faculty isdispensed with, the immediate result will be that the grade average of Omega graduates willcome down by 30%. At least in the short term, until the employers start appreciating the factthat the grade averages awarded by Omega truly reflect the merit of the students, Omegagraduates with lower grade averages will be even worse off in the job market than they are atpresent.

For the above reasons, the recommendation of the dean should not be implementedstraightaway, and the authorities must probe into the reasons much more exhaustively.


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10. Batavias milk prices

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper. The department ofagriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percentgreater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the localExcello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers fromcontinuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Bataviagovernment should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both

lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers.(The facts in this case are: The number of dairy farms throughout Batavia is 25% greater than it

was 10 years ago. During the same 10 years, the price of milk in the local Excello Food Market hasincreased from $1.50 per gallon to over $3.00 per gallon. The other statements in the narration areopinions of the writer. It is these opinions which you must examine critically.

The flaws in his reasoning are equating an increase in the number of dairy farms to an increase inthe extent of acreage devoted to dairy farming; presuming

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