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The Graying of theNorthstate

November 10, 2010

The Center for Economic Development

California State University, Chico

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North State

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Northstate as a Region

Isolated communities

Declining Industries

Resource Dependant

Economies Declining populations

Incredible Natural Beauty

Housing costs lower than state

averages

No Congestion

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1 - Exporting our Youth:

High School GraduatesLeave the Area

Options:

Comm. College (local) University (local)

Job (local)

University (outside) -

Job (outside the area)

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Hollowing Out the Middle

The Achievers

The Stayers

The Seekers

The Returners

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2 - Few College Graduates Returnto the Northstate

Lack of Job Opport. (in theirparticular field)

Higher Salary OptionsElsewhere

Desire to Gain ExperienceBefore Returning Home

Difficulty in finding Spousea Job

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3 - Low North State Fertility Rates

Death Rates exceed Birth Rates in most

North State communities.

In-migration of young families might stem

this natural population decrease.

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4 - Attraction of Retirees toNorthstate

High Quality of Life

Low Cost of Housing

Lack of Congestion Scenic Beauty

Cultural Arts

Health Care Options(Redding/Chico)

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5 - Increasing Longevity Life Expectancy at Birth

2530

3538

47

75

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1000 1200 1400 1800 1900 1990 2050

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Californias Baby Boom

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Under

5

5TO

9

10TO

14

15TO

19

20TO

24

25TO

29

30TO

34

35TO

39

40TO

44

45TO

49

50TO

54

55TO

59

60TO

64

65TO

69

70TO

74

75TO

79

80TO

84

85

AND

OVER

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Population 65 and over

15.8% 14.2%

10.6%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Butte Co. 20 Counties California

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Northstate Age Distribution

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

cc

5TO

9

10TO

14

15TO

19

20TO

24

25TO

29

30TO

34

35TO

39

40TO

44

45TO

49

50TO

54

55TO

59

60TO

64

65TO

69

70TO

74

75TO

79

80TO

84

85AND

OVER

1970

19801990

2000

2010

2020

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Tehama County AgeDistribution - 1970-2020

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Und

er5

5to

9

10to

14

15to

19

20to

24

25to

29

30to

34

35to

39

40to

44

45to

49

50to

54

55to

59

60to

64

65to

69

70to

74

75to

79

80to

84

85and

ove

r

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

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Median Age, 1995

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Population 65 and Over

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

SF Metro LA Metro California 12-County

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

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Projected Growth, 85 and Over

Population Percent Change, 2000-2030

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

SF

Metro

LA

Metro

California

12-County

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Greater % Living in Poverty

Percent of the Population 65+ Between 100 and 150%Poverty

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

SF

Metro

LA

Metro

California

USA

12-

County

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Challenges for the NorthstateMedical Care

Maintaining Quality of Life

Recreation

Housing Transportation

Costs

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Insufficient Retirement Savings

7.2

18

30

05

10

15

20

25

30

1900 1990 2040

Years Spent in Retirement

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Baby Boomers Saving Less &Less

9.4

54

0

2

4

6

8

10

1973 1983 1993

U.S. Savings Rate

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Nursing Shortage

California Ranks50th in Nation

More NorthstateNurses Retiring(tied to older pop.)

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Seismic Retrofitting of Hospitals

SB 1954

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Longer Lives

Increased Demand

for MedicalServices

Increased Demand

for In-home Care

Children will Spendmore Time Caring

for Parents

Women will be hitparticularly hard

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By 2040, Oldest Old in U.S. will

Out-Number Preschool Children

17.219.6

25.0

3.7

8.1

26.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1970 1995 2040

Under 580 and over

Million

s

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What Worries Retirees

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Having Enough Money

Maintaining Health

Being Productive

Maintaining Relationships

Staying Health

Being Able to Go Back to Work

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When will the Iceberg Hit

1990

19952000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Italy Japan Germany UK France Canada US

Year When 65+ = 18% of Population