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FIXED INCOME INVESTOR UPDATE
GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA
November 2012
CHINGIS BOND
2 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
This presentation is being made to you based on your deemed representation to each of Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, J.P. Morgan
Securities plc, Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. and TDB Capital LLC (the “Joint Lead Managers”) that either (i) you are not a resident of the United States and, to the extent you purchase the securities
described herein you will be doing so pursuant to Regulation S under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) OR (ii) you are acting on behalf of, or you are, a qualified institutional
buyer, as defined in Rule 144A under the Securities Act.
This presentation is being communicated only to persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments and to persons to whom it may be lawful to communicate it (all such persons
being referred to as “relevant persons”). This presentation is only directed at relevant persons and any investment or investment activity to which the presentation relates is only available to relevant persons or
will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Solicitations resulting from this presentation will only be responded to if the person concerned is a relevant person. Other persons should not rely or act upon this
presentation or any of its contents.
THIS PRESENTATION DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OR INVITATION TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE FOR ANY SECURITIES OF THE GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA AND NEITHER ANY
PART OF THIS PRESENTATION NOR ANY INFORMATION OR STATEMENT CONTAINED HEREIN SHALL FORM THE BASIS OF OR BE RELIED UPON IN CONNECTION WITH ANY CONTRACT OR
COMMITMENT WHATSOEVER. THE SECURITIES HAVE NOT BEEN, AND WILL NOT BE, REGISTERED UNDER THE SECURITIES ACT, OR THE SECURITIES LAWS OF ANY STATE OF THE UNITED
STATES OR ANY OTHER JURISDICTION AND MAY NOT BE OFFERED OR SOLD WITHIN THE UNITED STATES, EXCEPT PURSUANT TO AN EXEMPTION FROM, OR IN A TRANSACTION NOT
SUBJECT TO, THE REGISTRATION REQUIREMENTS OF THE SECURITIES ACT AND ANY APPLICABLE STATE OR LOCAL SECURITIES LAWS.
ANY INVESTMENT DECISION SHOULD BE MADE ON THE BASIS OF THE FINAL TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF THE SECURITIES AND THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN AN INFORMATION
MEMORANDUM AND/OR OTHER MATERIALS THAT WILL BE DISTRIBUTED TO YOU PRIOR TO THE CLOSING DATE AND NOT ON THE BASIS OF THIS PRESENTATION.
This presentation is confidential and has been prepared by the Government of Mongolia for selected recipients for information purposes only. The Joint Lead Managers do not make any representations or
warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information contained herein, nor have they independently verified such information. Opinions and estimates constitute the sole judgment of the Government of
Mongolia as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. In addition, certain information and statements made in this presentation contain “forward-looking statements.” Such forward-
looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “considering,” “depends,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “planning,” “planned,” “project,”
“trend,” and similar expressions. All forward-looking statements are the Government of Mongolia's current expectation of future events and are subject to a number of factors that could cause actual results to
differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements. Caution should be taken with respect to such statements and you should not place undue reliance on any such forward-looking
statements.
Certain data in this presentation was obtained from various external data sources, and the Government of Mongolia has not verified such data with independent sources. Accordingly, Government of Mongolia
makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of that data, and such data involves risks and uncertainties and is subject to change based on various factors. Past performance is not indicative
of future results. Any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this presentation must make its own independent decision regarding
any securities of financial instruments. The Joint Lead Managers may act as market maker or trade on a principal basis, or have undertaken or may undertake to trade for their own account, transactions in the
financial instruments or related instruments of any issuer discussed herein and may act as underwriter, placement agent, advisor or lender to such issuer. The Joint Lead Managers and/or their employees may
hold a position in any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein.
DISCLAIMER
3 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
Issuer Government of Mongolia (“GoM”)
Programme Description US$5,000 mm Global Medium Term Note (“GMTN”) Program
Issuance Senior Unsecured Notes
Principal Amount US$ Benchmark
Tenor 5 years and/ or 10 years
Issuer Ratings Moody’s: B1 (Stable) / S&P: BB- (Stable) / Fitch: B+ (Stable)
Expected Issue Ratings Moody’s: B1 / S&P: BB- / Fitch: B+
Form of Notes Regulation S / 144A Notes
Listing SGX-ST
Use of Proceeds
Finance infrastructure and industrial projects in Mongolia (via both debt or equity injections), including but
not limited to mining, railways, roads, highways and power plants. Proceeds will not be used to fund the
general budget nor social welfare programs
Governing Law New York Law
Joint Bookrunners Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, J.P. Morgan
Joint Lead Managers Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, J.P. Morgan, TDB Capital
SUMMARY OF OFFERING
4 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
KEY INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
Attractive Environment for
FDI and Trade
3
Proven Fiscal
Track Record
Augmented by Forward
Looking Initiatives
4
Strengthening Financial
Sector
5
One of the Fastest
Growing Economies
Globally
1 Large Mineral
Resource Base that
Can be Leveraged for
Industrialization
2
5 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
AGENDA
1 MONGOLIA OVERVIEW
2 KEY INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
6 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
Largest land per capita, enormous natural resources, well positioned for rapid economic expansion
MONGOLIA OVERVIEW
Close Proximity to the Largest Global Resource Markets Mongolia’s key advantages
1. LARGEST LAND / CAPITA
Territory: 1.6 million sq km
Population: 2.8 million
Relatively YOUNG POPULATION
with the HIGH LITERACY rate
among emerging economies
2. ABUNDANCE OF
UNEXPLOITED NATURAL
RESOURCES
Located close to some of the
LARGEST global commodity
MARKETS
One of the fastest growing economies globally
Large mineral resource base that can be leveraged for
industrialization
Attractive environment for FDI and trade
Proven fiscal track record augmented by forward looking initiatives
Strengthening financial sector
3. FLOURISHING
DEMOCRACY IN THE
REGION
Tested with 6 CONSECUTIVE
SUCCESSFUL democratic
ELECTIONS Real GDP
Growth
17.5%
Nominal
GDP (2011)
$7.9b GDP/Capita
$2,824
RUSSIA US$1,858 142
CHINA US$7,318 1,344
S.KOREA US$1,116 50
JAPAN US$5,867 128
MONGOLIA US$8 3
Nominal GDP 2011 in USD billions
Population 2011 in millions
“Economy could grow at double-digit rates for at least the next decade,
raising per capita income (now at US$3,503) fourfold within a decade”
- Parmeshwar Ramlogan, Former resident representative for Mongolia IMF ,
July 2011
Source: World Bank
3
1
2
7 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
(US$ mm)
ONE OF THE FASTEST GROWING ECONOMIES GLOBALLY
Real and Nominal GDP Emerging Sovereign Inflation
Comparison
Emerging Sovereign GDP Growth
Comparison
3 111 3 127 2 713
3 311 3 503
4 237
5 172
4 568
6 693
7 940
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Real GDP (US$ mm) Nominal GDP (US$ mm)
Mongolia continues to outperform its peers in the emerging markets,
demonstrating robust growth momentum while maintaining moderate levels of inflation
17,5%
9,2%
8,3%
6,8% 5,9%
5,1% 5,1%
3,7%
1,7%
Mo
ngolia
Chin
a
Sri L
anka
Nig
eria
Vie
tnam
Bo
livia
Ukra
ine
Ph
ilippin
es
Lebano
n
10,2%
18,6%
10,6%
8,0% 8,0%
6,9%
5,5% 4,8%
4,1%
Mo
ngolia
Vie
tnam
Nig
eria
Bo
livia
Ukra
ine
Sri L
anka
Lebano
n
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Chin
a
YoY Inflation in 2011 YoY GDP Growth in 2011 0.5%
(1.3%)
27.7%
6.4%
31.8%
17.5%
32.3%
8.9%
YoY growth of Real GDP YoY growth of Nominal GDP
Source: National Statistical Office of Mongolia, Moody’s country reports;
Note: Exchange rate (MNT/USD) uses corresponding year end rate, 1,169.97 (2007), 1,267.51 (2008), 1,442.84 (2009), 1,257.18 (2010), 1,396.37 (2011), 1,342.23 (June 30, 2012)
(1) Using annualized nominal GDP in MNT, which equals the nominal GDP as at June 30, 2012 multiplied by two
8 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
Indirect taxes 53,1%
Direct taxes 29,5%
Non-tax revenue 11,5%
Others 5,9%
Total Revenue (US$ mm): 3,151
CAGR(1) (2007-2011): 23.7%
Mining and quarrying 21,0%
Net taxes on products 15,0%
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
12,3% Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor
vehicles and motorcycles
9,2%
Transportation and storage 7,1%
Real estate activities 6,9%
Manufacturing 6,0%
Financial and Insurance
3,4%
Others 19,1%
Total Nominal GDP (US$ mm): 7,940
CAGR(1) (2007-2011): 22.3%
ONE OF THE FASTEST GROWING ECONOMIES GLOBALLY (CONT’D)
Diversified Earnings Drivers and
Revenue Base
Expanding GDP with Manageable
Inflation
Stable Exchange Rate and
Growing Foreign Reserves
Government Revenue Breakdown (2011)
1 221,00
1 165,00 1 169,97
1 267,51
1 442,84
1 257,18
1 396,37
1 342,23
1 000
1 100
1 200
1 300
1 400
1 500
31/1
2/0
5
31/1
2/0
6
31/1
2/0
7
31/1
2/0
8
31/1
2/0
9
31/1
2/1
0
31/1
2/1
1
30/6
/12
Source: Bank of Mongolia, 2012
Net Foreign Reserve and Import Cover
972 637
1 145
2 091 2 274 2 170
6,6
2,7
7,5 8,4
5,3 5,2
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012YTD
Net Foreign Reserve Foreign Reserves Import Cover
10,2
% 18
,6%
10,6
%
8,0%
8,0%
6,9%
5,5%
4,8%
4,1%
17,5
%
5,9%
6,8%
5,1%
5,1%
8,3%
1,7%
3,7%
9,2%
Mon
golia
Vie
tnam
Nig
eria
Bol
ivia
Ukr
aine
Sri
Lank
a
Leba
non
Phi
lippi
nes
Chi
na
YoY Inflation Real GDP Growth
17,8% 22,1%
4,2% 13,0%
10,2% 14,7% 10,2% 8,9%
(1,3%)
6,4%
17,5% 13,2%
(25,0%)
(20,0%)
(15,0%)
(10,0%)
(5,0%)
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
(25,0%)
(15,0%)
(5,0%)
5,0%
15,0%
25,0%
35,0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H2012
Inflation Real GDP Growth
Trends of Inflation and Real GDP Growth
Source: National Statistical Office of Mongolia, Bank of Mongolia;
Note: Exchange rate (MNT/USD) uses corresponding year end rate, 1,169.97 (2007), 1,267.51 (2008), 1,442.84 (2009), 1,257.18 (2010), 1,396.37 (2011), 1,342.23 (June 30, 2012)
(1) CAGR is calculated by using nominal GDP and total revenue in MNT during the period respectively
9 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
Main Mineral Resources Estimated Reserves
(YTD 2012)
Copper (thousand tons) 83,807
Coal (mm tons) 18,473
Gold (tons) 2,402
Lead (thousand tons) 1,740
Iron ore (mm tons) 1,047
2,909
4,818
2,2621,885
63.8%
89.2%
26.9%
54.9%
39.0%
81.0%
2009 2010 2011 1H2012
Total Exports
Mineral Exports % of Nominal GDP
Mineral Exports % of Total Exports
LARGE MINERAL RESOURCE BASE THAT CAN BE LEVERAGED FOR INDUSTRIALIZATION
Minerals – Main Composition of Total Exports (2011) Growing Share of Mineral Sector in the Economy
Total coal exports are estimated to exceed 30 million tons at the end of
2014 once railway infrastructure is in place and is expected to further
increase to 50 million tons by 2017
Mongolia continues to outperform its peers in the emerging markets, demonstrating robust growth momentum
while maintaining moderate levels of inflation
(US$ mm)
Mongolia’s World Class Mineral Reserves
Source: National Statistical Office of Mongolia, Erdenes MGL
(1) Using annualized total exports, which equals the total exports as at June 30, 2012 multiplied by two
47,2%
20,9%
12,1%
9.2%
5,3% 3,0% 2,3% Coal
Copper
Others
Iron ores & scrap
Crude oil
Zinc
Gold
10 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
LARGE MINERAL RESOURCE BASE THAT CAN BE LEVERAGED FOR INDUSTRIALIZATION (CONT’D)
ULAANBAATAR
Erdenet Tumurtoi
Shivee Ovoo
Tavan Tolgoi
Oyu Tolgoi Nariin Sukhait
Baganuur
Gurvanbulag
Tsagaan Suvarga
Dornot Mardai
Asgat
Tumurtein
Ovoo
Boroo
Burenkhaan
Silver
6.4 mm tons
Uranium
0.016 mm tons
Copper / molybdenum
ore – 1.2 bn tons
Iron ore
229.3 mm tons
Gold ore
0.025 mm tons
Metallurgical coal
125.5 mm tons
Coal
7.5 bn tons
Lignite coal
646.2 mm tons
Lignite coal
600.0 mm tons
Phosphorite
300 mm tons
Copper – 37mm tons
Gold – 1,431 tons
Copper /
molybdenum ore
10.6 mm tons of
oxides;
240.1 mm tons
sulphides
Zinc
7.7 mm tons
Uranium
0.029 mm tons
Uranium
0.001 mm tons
Mongolia has vast and diverse under developed mineral deposits,
providing the economy with significant long-term upside potential
This slide outlines the 15 strategic deposits that have been identified by the Mongolian government. The deposits cover a broad basket of minerals, ranging from coal, copper, gold, iron ore, molybdenum, phosphorite, rare earth oxides, silver, uranium, and zinc
11 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
LARGE MINERAL RESOURCE BASE THAT CAN BE LEVERAGED FOR INDUSTRIALIZATION (CONT’D)
Tavan Tolgoi Overview Oyu Tolgoi Overview
Oyu Tolgoi is one of the world’s largest copper reserves. It is expected
to produce more than 0.6 million tons of copper, 20.3 tons of gold and
93.8 tons of silver per annum once it reaches full production in 2018
As of August 2012, US$6.2 billion has been invested by Rio Tinto and
Turquoise Hill. Production is expected to commence in 2013
Strategically located in the South Gobi region of Mongolia,
approximately 550 km south of Ulaanbaatar, and 80 km north of the
Mongolia - China border
The Government of Mongolia owns 34% of the project
According to the Australasian Joint Ore Reserves Committee, the Tavan
Tolgoi formation, is one of the world’s largest under-developed coal
deposits with an estimated 7.4 billion tons of coking and thermal coal
resources
Strategically located in the South Gobi desert near the Chinese border
Target coal production of approximately 6 to 7 million tons at both East
and West Tsankhi in 2013
One of the financing options considered is to conduct an initial public
offering (“IPO”) of Erdenes TT’s shares
Tavan Tolgoi is one of the world’s largest underdeveloped coal resources capable of supporting large-scale, long-life mining operations,
while Oyu Tolgoi is believed to be the world’s largest underdeveloped copper-gold project, the commencement of operation in these
projects will drive Mongolia’s GDP growth
Source: Tavan Tolgoi website, Turquoise Hill website; (1) Erdenes TT is the company that holds GoM’s interests in Tavan Tolgoi
12 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
LARGE MINERAL RESOURCE BASE THAT CAN BE LEVERAGED FOR INDUSTRIALIZATION (CONT’D)
Establishing Direct Links to the Seaports of China and Russia to Improve International Market Access
5,600km of new railways
will be built in 3 phases
Direct railroad access to
mining deposits
Establishing export routes
to Russia and China
990km highway to be
constructed to promote
cross – border trade
Both China and Russia
have discussed the
possibility of establishing
trade zones in strategic
locations in proximity to the
highway
Planned investments in transportation infrastructure will improve direct access to
Chinese and Russian seaports and further accelerate export growth by tapping more distant markets
Source: Ministry of Roads and Transportation of Mongolia
Existing Railways in Russia and China
Phase I
Existing Railways
Potential seaports and seaways
Phase II and III
13 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
Mongolia has a long history of international trade, driven by its
strategic location
China is Mongolia's largest trading partner and one of the largest
investors in Mongolia's mining projects
Mongolia and Russia have a long history of cooperation, signing a
Joint Declaration of Cooperation and a bilateral trade agreement in
1991, and a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in 1993
ATTRACTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FDI AND TRADE
China and Russia – Mongolia’s Most Important Trading Partners Total Trade Volume
Close Relationship with Russia and China Commitments to Free International Trade
Trade Agreements:
► Has complied with the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
(“GATT”) 1994 upon its accession to the WTO
► Currently negotiating free trade agreements with China, Japan,
South Korea and the EU. The EU is Mongolia's third largest
trading partner by volume and value
China 94,0%
Russia 1,5%
Others 4,5%
Russia 27,0%
China 26,7%
Others 46,3%
Source: National Statistical Office of Mongolia
1H2012 Exports
1H2012 Imports
Mongolia
Russia
China 1 948 2 535 1 885 2 909 4 818
2 262
2 062 3 245
2 138
3 200
6 598
3 313 4 009
5 779
4 023
6 109
11 416
5 576
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H2012
Exports Imports
(US$ mm)
Mongolia is strategically located with direct access to China and Russia, two of the largest markets in the world.
Trade volumes are expected to grow alongside GDP as output increases
14 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
1 886
360 839 570
1 630
4 620
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H2012
ATTRACTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FDI AND TRADE (CONT’D)
Rapidly Growing FDI into Mongolia Breakdown of FDI by Industry
Source: Foreign Investments and Foreign Trade Agency
(US$ mm)
12.5% 24.4% 58.2% 40.9% 16.2% 8.5%
As % of Nominal GDP
67,5% 68,4% 80,4%
66,3% 84,7%
74,8%
26,1% 30,5% 17,9%
21,0%
7,1% 24,4% 4,4% 0,6% 0,4%
4,0% 3,1%
0,8% 0,8% 0,2% 1,2% 6,0% 4,1%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H2012
Information and communication technology Construction
Banking and financial services Others
Geology exploration
Recent Changes in Regulations Relating to Foreign Investments Prudent Regulatory Framework Supporting the Industrial Sector
“Foreign Investment Protection and Promotion Agreement” with 43 countries
A foreign investor may apply for a stability agreement to govern their
investment
121 projects to be implemented with private sector participation
Minerals Law:
► Government is able to acquire an up to 50% stake in strategic deposits if it
has contributed to exploration and up to 34% if there was no contribution
► Progressive Royalty Rate scheme. Rates increase as mineral prices rise
and are not applicable below certain threshold mineral prices
► Rates are lower for processed minerals to encourage mining companies to
engage in more value-added activities
FDI into Mongolia continues to be dominated by the Mining and Exploration sectors
as the Government continues to prudently open these industries to outside investment
Source: Foreign Investments and Foreign Trade Agency of Mongolia
(1) Using annualized imports and exports, which equals the imports and exportd as at June 30, 2012 multiplied by two
15 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
ATTRACTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FDI AND TRADE (CONT’D)
Government Overview Recent Developments with High Priority Countries /
Organizations
China:
Strategic partnership agreement in 2011, together with eight other agreements
on economic and technical cooperation, expanding cooperation in the
petroleum sector, and an agreement of cooperation with the Export-Import
Bank of China
The Bank of Mongolia has RMB10 billion (USD 1.6 billion equiv.) local currency
swap line with the People’s Bank of China (“PBoC”) for the purpose of financing
trade between the two countries and providing short term RMB liquidity for
stabilization of financial markets
Russia:
In 2003, in order to encourage bilateral trade and investment ties between the
two countries, Russia wrote off outstanding debt between 1946 and 1991
In January 2009, Mongolia and Russia announced a joint venture to develop
uranium deposits located in Dornod
Germany:
In October 2011, Germany and Mongolia signed several trade and cooperation
agreements in relation to mining, manufacturing & technology
International Organizations:
On March 17, 2011 the Government and the United Nations signed the United
Nations Development Assistance Framework ("UNDAF") for 2012 to 2016
In 2009, the IMF provided Mongolia with a US$242 million loan facility under
the 2009 Stand By Program, of which US$194 million has been drawn
[Add upgrades by ADB/IFC?]
Government type: Mixed parliamentary/presidential
Head of State: President (elected for a term of four years)
Executive branch: Prime Minister and Cabinet, appointed by the State Great
Khural (the “Parliament”) in consultation with the President
Legislative branch: State Great Khural (unicameral, 76 seats; members are
elected for a term of four years)
Suffrage: 18 years of age; universal
State structure: Unitary state; territory of Mongolia is divided administratively
into 21 aimags (provinces) and the capital city
Balanced Parliamentary Composition and New Coalition
Government
The Mongolian government continues to further develop relationships with key
trade partners and international organizations
Mongolia is a vibrant and true democracy with stable institutions and a high
degree of rule of law. The population is young and with a high literacy rate
Current government is a
coalition government consisting
of the Democratic Party, Justice
Coalition and the Civil Will-
Green Party Democratic
Party 40,8%
MPP 32,9%
Justice coalition
(New MPRP and MNDP)
14,5%
Civil Will-Green Party
2,6%
Independent 3,9%
Seats under dispute/
reelection 5,3%
Parliamentary Election 2012 (76 seats)
16 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
PROVEN FISCAL TRACK RECORD AUGMENTED BY FORWARD LOOKING INITIATIVES
Manageable Levels of Public Sector Debt Recent Developments with High Priority Countries /
Organizations
Fiscal Stability Law:
► The budget deficit in any given year shall not exceed 2% of
GDP
► Total expenditure growth rate of the budget should not exceed
the growth rate of nominal non-mineral GDP for the given year
of the proceeding 12 months
► External debt should not exceed 50% of GDP for 2013 and
40% of GDP for 2014
Fiscal Stability Fund (“FSF”):
► Any excess mineral revenues that exceed the amount
estimated in the budget's revenue are to be placed in the FSF
► The FSF must represent at least 5% of the GDP in any given
fiscal year
► A portion of the savings generated by the FSF may be used to
finance domestic and foreign investments
Future Bond Issuances:
► The proceeds from the bond offering will not be used to fund
the general government budget or general welfare programs
1 530 1 603
2 064 2 032 2 195
2 776
19 1
269 342 361
759
36,6%
31,0%
51,1%
35,5% 32,2%
38,3%
36,1%
31,0%
45,2%
30,4% 27,6%
30,1%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H2012
Total Public Sector Domestic Debt
Total Public Sector External Debt
Total Public Sector Debt as % of Nominal GDP
External Debt as % of Nominal GDP
(1)
(1)
The 2013 budget policy guideline outlines the framework for continued economic growth while establishing fiscal discipline
through the Fiscal Stability Law
Source: National Statistical Office of Mongolia, Moody’s Country Reports
Note: Exchange rate (MNT/USD) uses corresponding year end rate, 1,169.97 (2007), 1,267.51 (2008), 1,442.84 (2009), 1,257.18 (2010), 1,396.37 (2011), 1,342.23 (June 30, 2012)
(1) Using annualized nominal GDP, which equals the nominal GDP as at June 30, 2012 multiplied by two
(US$ mm)
17 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
PROVEN FISCAL TRACK RECORD AUGMENTED BY FORWARD LOOKING INITIATIVES (CONT’D)
Government Revenues and Budget Balance Trends in Select Components of Government Revenue
(US$ mm)
1 284 1 492 1 123
2 138 2 604
1 569
302 205
244
310
361
180 21 15
15
35
186
25
2,7% (4,5%) (5,2%)
0,5% (3,6%) (4,4%)
37,9% 33,1% 30,3%
37,2% 39,7% 38,5%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H2012
Other Revenue
Non-tax Revenue
Tax Revenue
Fiscal Surplus/Defict as % of Nominal GDP
Total Revenue and Net Lending as % of Nominal GDP
Government revenues, boosted by the strong mining sector with the receipts and a booming economy, have increased by a
CAGR(1) of 23.7% from 2007 to 2011, with the deficit still well covered by GDP
Source: National Statistical Office of Mongolia; Note: MNT/USD = 1401.0
Note: Exchange rate (MNT/USD) uses corresponding year end rate, 1,169.97 (2007), 1,267.51 (2008), 1,442.84 (2009), 1,257.18 (2010), 1,396.37 (2011), 1,342.23 (June 30, 2012)
(1) Using annualized nominal GDP, which equals the nominal GDP as at June 30, 2012 multiplied by two
13,8% 13,7%
12,5%
16,3%
21,1% 22,4%
16,5%
15,2%
12,1%
15,7%
11,7% 11,7%
7,1%
4,0%
5,3% 4,6% 4,5%
3,9%
0,5% 0,3% 0,3% 0,5%
2,3%
0,5%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H2012
Indirect taxes
Direct taxes
Non-tax revenue
Others
(% of Nominal GDP)
(1)
18 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
PROVEN FISCAL TRACK RECORD AUGMENTED BY FORWARD LOOKING INITIATIVES (CONT’D)
Government Expenditures and Net Lending Trends in Select Components of Expenditures
1 169 1 389 1 239 1 795
2 316 1 701
256
493 319
470
764
452
68
64 61
186
351
31
35,3% 37,6% 35,5% 36,6%
43,2% 47,4%
6,0% 9,5%
7,0% 7,0% 9.6% 9,8%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H2012
Net Lending
Capital Expenditure
Current Expenditure
Total Expenditure and Net Lending as % of Nominal GDP
Capital Expenditure as % of Nominal GDP
(US$ mm)
(237) (33) (280) (409) (234) 114
Budget Deficit
(% of Nominal GDP)
6,0%
8,3%
8,7%
7,7%
7,2%
9,1% 7,6%
7,8%
6,0% 6,2% 6,6% 6,0%
5,7%
1,1%
0,5% 1,0% 1,0%
0,7%
6,0%
9,5%
7,0% 7,0%
9,6% 9,8%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H2012
Wages and salaries Purchase of goods and services
Subsidies to public enterprises Capital expenditure
On the back of higher global mineral prices, development of new mines, and increased fiscal spending, Mongolia’s growth
momentum has been fully supported and will continue to see positive tailwinds
Source: National Statistical Office of Mongolia, Bank of Mongolia
19 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
STRENGTHENING FINANCIAL SECTOR
Monetary Policy Overview Historical Policy Rate
The Bank of Mongolia’s policy objectives are twofold
► Maintain inflation at low and stable levels
► Allow exchange rate flexibility in line with macroeconomic
fundamentals
To effect its policy, the Bank of Mongolia relies on 6 key tools:
► The Policy Rate to directly target inflation
► Reserve Requirements to affect broad money supply
► Open Market Operations to absorb excess liquidity
► FX Market Intervention to control exchange rate volatility
► Repo Facilities to manage intra-day liquidity
► Medium-term Price stabilization program with the Government
6,4%
8,4%
10,3% 9,8%
12,8%
10,0% 11,5%
12,3% 13,3%
jūl 07 nov 07 sep 08 nov 08 mai 09 sep 09 apr 11 okt 11 apr 12
Policy Rate
YoY Inflation Rate
17,8%
22,1%
4,2%
13,0% 10,2% 14,7%
9,6%
28,0%
8,0%
10,1% 9,2% 7,2%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H2012
YoY Inflation Rate Annual average inflation
The Bank of Mongolia continues to play an active role in safeguarding the economy, mobilizing tools to curb inflation,
maintaining competitiveness of Mongolian exports, and supporting economic growth
Source: National Statistical Office of Mongolia, Bank of Mongolia
20 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
STRENGTHENING FINANCIAL SECTOR (CONT’D)
Togrog is relatively immune to FX supply shocks Commodity Currency Volatility
1 100
1 200
1 300
1 400
1 500
1 600
1 700
1 800
1 900
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
04 06 08 10 12 02 04 06 08 10 12 02 04 06 08 10 12 02 04 06 08
Mill
ion
US
D
FX Net flows Togrog referance rate, RHS
Stability since March 2009
Daily average volatility: 0.08% in 2012
0.24% in 2011
The Togrog has remained relatively stable since 2009 with daily average
exchange rate volatility at 0.08% from the beginning of 2012 and 0.24% in
2011
Source: Bank of Mongolia, Bloomberg
(1) Data from Bank of Mongolia
Currencies
(last 34 months)
Daily average
volatility
(%)
Maximum
depreciation
per day (%)
Maximum
appreciation
per day (%)
MNT (Mongolia)(1) 0.20% 1.26% 1.69%
AUD (Australia) 0.61% 3.50% 3.67%
CAD (Canada) 0.47% 2.13% 2.53%
NZD (New Zealand) 0.65% 3.05% 3.28%
RUB (Russia) 0.50% 2.55% 3.18%
CLP (Chile) 0.49% 2.24% 4.78%
SAR (South Africa) 0.00% 0.07% 0.07%
BRL (Brazil) 0.63% 3.76% 5.05%
NOK (Norway) 0.63% 2.20% 3.23%
TZS (Tanzania) 0.33% 9.09% 4.55%
PGK (Papua New Guinea) 0.17% 2.27% 2.52%
Average (ex-MNT) 0.45% 3.09% 3.29%
The Togrog has remained relatively stable versus other commodity currencies since 2010
21 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
1 696 1 901 1 469
2 248
3 721 4 403
58
149
320
298
236
229
34
74
84
72
53
39
3,2%
7,0%
17,1%
11,4%
5,8% 4,9%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H2012
Performing Loans Non-performingPast-due NPL Ratio
505 511 451
921 1,247
1 339
2 052 1 791
1 996
3 723
4 592
5 253
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H2012
M1 M2
STRENGTHENING FINANCIAL SECTOR (CONT’D)
Increasing Money Supply Improving Quality of Outstanding Loans Stable Capital Adequacy
(US$ mm)
322
269
160
313
493
644
14,0%
11,1%
13,3%
15,1% 14,8% 15,4%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H2012
Capital CAR (%)
(US$ mm) (US$ mm)
Source: National Statistical Office of Mongolia
Note: Exchange rate (MNT/USD) uses corresponding year end rate, 1,169.97 (2007), 1,267.51 (2008), 1,442.84 (2009), 1,257.18 (2010), 1,396.37 (2011), 1,342.23 (June 30, 2012)
(1) Using annualized M2 in MNT, which equals the M2 as at June 30, 2012 multiplied by two
Mongolia’s banking sector continues to expand in line with the economy while maintaining a healthy degree of
capitalization and low incidence of loan delinquency
22 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
OVERVIEW OF GOVERNMENT PROJECTS
Mongolia’s Planned and Ongoing Industrial and Infrastructure Projects
Mongolia is actively developing various industrial and infrastructure projects
to support its mining industry and economic growth
Source: Mineral Resource and Petroleum Authority of Mongolia, 2011, ResCap Mongolia 101, January 2012
Note: Exchange rate (MNT/USD) uses corresponding year end rate, 1,169.97 (2007), 1,267.51 (2008), 1,442.84 (2009), 1,257.18 (2010), 1,396.37 (2011), 1,342.23 (June 30, 2012)
(1) The accumulated investment amount as of August 31, 2012 for Oyu Tolgoi
Sector Commencement Date Estimated Completion Date Investment Size
(US$ mm)
1. Mining 2009-2011 N/A 6,200(1)
2. Road Construction 2012 2013-2014 5,200
3. Railway 2012/2013 2015-2016 3,375
4. Power 2011/2012 2014-2015 1,470
5. Sainshand
Industrial Park 2013 2020 9,500
23 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
KEY INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
Attractive Environment for
FDI and Trade
3
Proven Fiscal
Track Record
Augmented by Forward
Looking Initiatives
4
Strengthening Financial
Sector
5
One of the Fastest
Growing Economies
Globally
1 Large Mineral
Resource Base that
Can be Leveraged for
Industrialization
2
GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA
Appendix
25 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
As at 31 December As at 30
June
Key Parameters 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Nominal GDP (US$ mm) 4,237 5,172 4,568 6,693 7,940 4,609
Real GDP (US$ mm) 3,111 3,127 2,713 3,311 3,503 1,810
Real GDP growth 10.2% 8.9% (1.3%) 6.4% 17.5% 13.2%
Nominal GDP per capita (US$) 1,620 1,957 1,697 2,444 2,824 -
Unemployment rate 9.2% 9.2% 11.6% 9.9% 7.7% 8.4%
Inflation 17.8% 22.1% 4.2% 13.0% 10.2% 14.7%(3)
Fiscal Surplus/ Deficit (% of nominal GDP) 2.7% (4.5%) (5.2%) 0.5% (3.6%) (4.4%)(1)
Total debt (% of nominal GDP) 36.6% 30.8% 50.6% 28.8% 28.4% 28.6%(1)
Current account balance (% of nominal GDP) 4.1% (13.1%) (7.7%) (10.7%) (30.0%) (30.5%)
Net foreign exchange reserves (US$ mm) 972 637 1,145 2,091 2,274 2,910
Banking sector
Capital adequacy ratio 14.0% 11.1% 13.3% 15.1% 14.8% 15.4%
Non-performing loans ratio 3.3% 7.2% 17.4% 11.5% 5.8% 4.9%
Loan to deposit ratio 97.0% 135.7% 102.3% 75.2% 95.0% 98.1%
Stock market capitalization(2)
(US$ mm) 612 407 430 1,093 1,553 1,412
Exchange Rate(2)
(USD/MNT) 1,169.97 1,267.51 1,442.84 1,257.18 1,396.37 1,342.23
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Source: Bank and National Statistical Office of Mongolia, Statistical Yearbooks of 2010 and 2011 and June 2011 Monthly Bulletin
(1) Using annualized nominal GDP, which equals the nominal GDP as at June 30, 2012 multiplied by two.
(2) Period end data
(3) Compared against June 30, 2011
26 GOVERNMENT OF MONGOLIA l CHINGIS BOND
SOVEREIGN COMPARISON
Source: Moody’s Country Report, Bank and National Statistical Office of Mongolia, Statistical Yearbooks and December 2011 Monthly Bulletin
Note: Exchange rate (MNT/USD) uses corresponding year end rate 1,396.37 (2011)
Emerging Market Sovereign Risk Indicators: Economic Data (As at Dec 2011)
Mongolia Philippines Sri Lanka Vietnam Bolivia Venezuela Ukraine Belarus Lebanon Nigeria
Government Bond Ratings
Moody's B1 Ba2 B1 B2 Ba3 B2 B2 B3 B1 -
S&P BB- BB+ B+ BB- BB- B+ B+ B- B B+
Fitch B+ BB+ BB- B+ BB- B+ B - B BB-
Economic Structure and Performance
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 7.9 224.8 57.2 124.6 24.3 315.7 165.3 45.8 38.1 245.2
Nominal GDP per Capita (US$) 2,824 2,341 2,741 1,418 2,386 10,705 3,610 4,802 8,895 1,515
Nominal GDP (% change) 31.8% 12.6% 15.3% 17.1% 24.0% 33.5% 19.9% (17.0%) 2.7% 24.9%
Real GDP (% change) 17.5% 3.7% 8.3% 5.9% 5.1% 4.2% 5.1% 5.3% 1.7% 6.8%
Inflation (% change) 10.2% 4.8% 6.9% 18.6% 8.0% 28.5% 8.0% 53.2% 5.5% 10.6%
Government Finance
Revenue / GDP 39.7% 14.6% 14.9% 25.7% 34.8% 34.9% 42.0% 40.3% 21.6% 29.5%
Primary Balance / GDP 8.4% 0.8% (1.4%) (3.2%) (0.2%) (1.3%) (0.3%) 0.7% 2.8% 0.8%
Debt (US$ bn) 2.2 94.2 44.9 54.5 7.8 79.4 44.9 50.8 61.9 43.0
Debt / GDP 28.4% 41.9% 78.5% 43.7% 32.2% 25.2% 27.1% 25.3% 135.1% 19.1%
External Payments and Debt
Current Account Balance (US$mm) (2,759) 7,078 (4,615) 236 537 27,205 (9,006) (10,440) (5,707) 14,381
Current Account Balance / GDP (30.0%) 3.1% (7.8%) 0.2% 2.2% 8.6% (5.5%) (15.7%) (14.4%) 6.3%
Net FDI / GDP 58.2% 0.6% 1.5% 6.0% 3.6% 1.7% 4.3% 7.10% 8.6% 2.4%
Forex Reserves (US$mm) 2,274 75,346 6,748 14,347 12,054 28,447 31,828 544 45,327 36,797
Monetary Indicators
M2 (% change) 37.0% 6.5% 20.5% 11.9% 20.7% 54.4% 14.2% 121.2% 5.4% na
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