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INNOVATION & ENVIRONMENTREGIONS OF EUROPE SHARING SOLUTIONS

Good Practice Guide Preparing the Historic Environment to

Meet the Challenges of Climate Change

March 2013

Engaging Culture and Heritage for Sustainable

Tourism Development

Cadw, Welsh Government

INTERREG IVC project CHARTS Good Practice Guide Preparing the Historic Environment to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change

Engaging Culture and Heritage for Sustainable Tourism Development

INNOVATION & ENVIRONMENT

REGIONS OF EUROPE SHARING SOLUTIONS

2.

© CHARTS Project Partnership and Project Cadw, Wales,UK

This Guide is accompanied by a brochure, a DVD video clip and a presentation. This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made.

No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the CHARTS Project Management and Coordination Unit.

Citation: Cadw, Welsh Government, INTERREG IVC project CHARTS Good Practice Guide “Preparing the Historic Environment to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change”, page No., March, 2013.

CHARTS project would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source on e-mail: [email protected].

Disclaimer:

The Good Practice Guide is provided for general information purposes only. Any reliance or action taken based on the information, materials and techniques described within this document are the responsibility of the user. Readers are advised to consult appropriate professional resources to determine what is safe and suitable for their particular circumstances. The CHARTS project partnership assumes no responsibility for any consequences arising from use of the information described within this document.

March, 2013





3.

INTERREG IVC Programme

CHARTS Project

Good Practices

INTERREG IVC provides funding for interregional cooperation across Europe. It is implemented under the European Community’s territorial co-operation objective and financed through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). The overall objective of the INTERREG IVC Programme is to improve the effectiveness of regional policies and instruments. A project builds on the exchange of experiences among partners who are ideally responsible for the development of their local and regional policies. The areas of support are innovation and the knowledge economy, environment and risk prevention. The programme aims to contribute to the economic modernisation and competitiveness of Europe. INTERREG IVC is linked to the objectives of Lisbon and Gothenburg agendas.

Project Mission is to enrich regional policies with culture and heritage as added value for tourism sustainability, by exchange experience amongst the partners in established Good Practices on the sustainable management of culture, heritage and landscape through communication and collaboration, keeping in mind the effects of innovation and creating a base of knowledge that can span well beyond the project’s end.

1. Climate Change 2. Accessibility to Heritage 3. Effective Partnerships 4. Host Communities and Responsible Tourism 5. Quality Criteria 6. Visitor Information

7. Place Marketing 8. Cultural Routes 9. Railway Heritage 10. Local Products and Gastronomy 11. Traditional Skills and Trades 12. Cycling for Tourists





4.

CHARTS Project Partnership

13 Partners from 11 countries and 10 regions across Europe

Municipality of South Pelion (Lead Partner)

Welsh Government, Cadw

ECTN-European Cultural Tourism Network

Midland Regional Authority

Region Västra Götaland

Pafos Regional Board of Tourism

Veneto Region – Department of Tourism

Vidzeme Tourism Association

National Institute of Research-Development in Tourism

Mallorca Council - Environment Department

Union of South-East Region Local Authorities

Greek Nation Tourism Organization

IBERTUR / University of Barcelona

GREECE

UK

BELGIUM

IRELAND

SWEDEN

CYPRUS

ITALY

LATVIA

ROMANIA

SPAIN

BULGARIA

GREECE

SPAIN

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5.

Forward

The historic environment is central to Wales’s culture and its character contributes to our sense of place and cultural identity. It forms an important part of our tourism offer.

Wales has 30,000 listed building, 4000 scheduled monuments and three World Heritage sites. The historic environment sector supports over 30,000 jobs, and contributes €2.18 billion in output and €1.019 billion to Wales’s national gross value added (GVA). Climate change poses major challenges for the historic environment in terms of increasing extreme weather events, floods, coastal erosion and sea level rises. This was recently evidenced by the storms which battered the west coast of Wales in January 2014.

Cadw has worked with its partners in the Historic Environment Group to produce a strategic approach to identify and assess the sensitivity of historic assets. This involved producing a risk assessment based upon sensitivity to change, likelihood and impact. This strategic approach will inform future difficult decisions about what to conserve, save or accept the loss of the asset and decide which sites should be accorded priority for recording and rescue.

The methodology which is described in this Good Practice Guide is readily transferrable to other regions providing they have access to research and data on how their regions are forecast to be impacted by climate change. We hope that other regions find this Good Practice Guide helpful to developing a strategic approach to addressing the challenges faced by their historic environment assets from climate change.





6.

Acknowledgements

This Guide forms a part of the CHARTS project Web based toolkit on Good Practice. It is developed with co-funding support from European Regional Development Fund and made possible by the INTERREG IVC programme 2007-2013.

Authored by:

CADW, THE WELSH GOVERNMENT HISTORIC ENVIRONMENT SERVICE, WALES, UK

We are also grateful to the following people for their assistance in the development of this guide: Authors of the report “A Strategic Approach For Assessing And Addressing The Potential Impact of Climate Change On The Historic Environment of Wales” - Dyfed Archaeological Trust, Centre For Environmental Change & Quaternary Research and the Countryside and Community Research Institute. In addition the member of the Historic Environment Group and the speakers at the seminar in Conway in 2012:Cedric Rigal, Mayor of Conwy, WalesMr Kostas Papamarkakis, Chair of the Municipal Council of South PelionManos Vougioukas, Project Coordinator CHARTSNigel Adams, ECTN, Wales





7.

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Description of the Welsh strategic approach for assessing the impact of climate change on the historic environment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Governance issues relating to best practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26Identification of partners and partnership arrangements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28Background research and data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Identifying stakeholders & stakeholder consultation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Assessment of the current approach including an audit and identification of the changes required to achieve transfer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Resource requirements both staff & financial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36Potential benefits of introducing the best practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38Implementation plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39Monitoring & evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Appendix 1 Climate change and the historic environment of Wales: a summary of impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45Appendix 2 Outline of content of an invitiation to tender (ITT) from the National Trust. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

Contents





8.

Summary

Climate change poses a number of significant challenges to the historic environment, both physical and economic. The physical challenges include extreme weather events resulting in flooding and storm damage, coastal erosion, rise in sea levels, heat waves etc. There are also likely to be economic impacts particularly in respect of tourism markets and their seasonality together with the increased costs of the maintenance and repair of heritage assets.

The focus of this guide is on the strategic approach for assessing the potential impact of climate change on the historic environment of Wales as the most relevant and easily transferred to other regions within the lifetime of this project. The material on which it is based is a report prepared for the Welsh Historic Environment Group by the Countryside and Community Research Institute, Dyfed Archaeological Trust, and Centre for Environmental Change and Quaternary Research and the presentations to a CHARTS Climate Change Workshop in September 2012.

The guide describes the approach and methodology undertaken in Wales and the findings of the research report in terms of the implications of climate change impacts for 12 classes of historic assets.

The guide then describes how the methodology could be transferred to other regions by providing a step by step guide. This includes the need to define the assets which are to be the subject of the risk assessment and then to categorise the assets by their character and physical location. The next step is to assess what are the physical impacts of climate change predicted for your region and any socio-economic impacts. The severity and extent of climate change impacts is assessed for each category and the findings used to draw up an overall risk matrix highlighting the risk for each category. The overall risk matrix can then help determine a policy response identifying the priorities for intervention, terms of adaptation, monitoring and recording in cases where it may not be feasible to save an asset.





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The range of potential options to respond to the climate change impacts on specific categories of asset have to be identified, together with their resource requirements. It is then necessary to analyse the optional policy response in terms of resources and effectiveness. This will then be utilised to prepare an implementation plan.

The remainder of this guide looks in detail at each of the aspects that has to be addressed to successfully transfer the methodology. This includes issues relating to:

• Governance• Identification of partners and partnership arrangements • Background research and data• Identifying stakeholders and stakeholder consultation• Assessment of the current approach including an audit and identification

of the changes required to achieve transfer• Resource requirements both financial and staff• Potential benefits of introducing the best practice• Implementation plan• Monitoring and evaluation

Climate change impacts can threaten the loss or damage of many of our historic assets in the years ahead. The development of a risk assessment leading to an implementation framework, which is recommended by CHARTS, will help guide policy development and actions seeking to minimise the impact climate change will have on our historic environment, and guide the effective use of scarce resources.

As part of the CHARTS (Cultural and Heritage Added value to Regional policies for Tourism & Sustainability) Interreg IVC project, a seminar on climate change hosted by the Welsh Government in Conwy in September 2012 examined a number of best practices developed within Wales and Ireland to assist the historic environment to meet the challenges of climate change. Based on this seminar one of the practices has been selected as offering the scope for transfer to other regions, which is the subject of this guide.





10.

Climate change poses a number of significant challenges to the historic environment, both physical and economic. The physical challenges include:

• Extreme weather events resulting in flooding and storm damage

• Coastal erosion• Heat waves resulting in periods of drought,

water shortages and forest fires• Rise in sea levels• Drying out, desiccation and erosion

of wet lands• Drying and shrinking of clay soils• Stress on some trees and plants• Migration of pests and diseases

There are also likely to be economic impacts particularly in respect of tourism markets and their seasonality together with the increased costs of the maintenance and repair of heritage assets.

Introduction





11.

The focus of this guide is on the strategic approach for assessing the potential impact of climate change on the historic environment of Wales as the most relevant and easily transferred to other regions within the lifetime of this project. All the other good practices are relevant but some of them would take several years to transfer to other regions. To enable the public authorities to allocate resources to protect and adapt heritage assets effectively, they need to have a thorough understanding of the varying levels of risk faced by the assets and what actions can be taken if any to reduce those risks. There is also a need for traditional buildings to be understood. It’s not just historic monuments that are being affected by the changing environment, but also the places where ordinary people live. Traditional houses are different to modern buildings – they perform differently - and there is a need for well informed work to protect them as they’re also part of our heritage.

This guide provides advice on the:• development of the methodology required • the background research and data that

is required• the governance and partnership issues• identification of the stakeholders• assessment of the current approach including an audit

and identification of the changes required to achieve the transfer of the good practice

• consultation requirements with stakeholders • resource requirements both staff and financial• implementation plan and timetable• evaluation and monitoring requirements





12.

The Historic Environment Group established to advise Government Ministers on issues relating to the historic environment and comprising the main public bodies and NGOs concerned with the historic environment, commissioned a report to develop a methodology for assessing the potential impact of climate change on the historic environment of Wales. The report was undertaken by the Countryside and Community Research Institute, Dyfed Archaeological Trust, and Centre for Environmental Change and Quaternary Research and the content of this description is based on their report.

The objectives of the report were to:

• Identify and assess sensitivity of historic assets• Produce a risk assessment based upon

sensitivity to change, likelihood and impact

Description of the Welsh strategic approach for assessing the impact of climate change on the historic environment

Based on the UK Climate Projections 2009 mid-range projections of 2050’s of:

• Warmer mean temperatures• Hotter, drier summers• Warmer wetter winters/ summers*• More frequent extreme weather

* Uncertainty acknowledged: may underestimate solar forcing of winter weather & jet stream alterations giving wetter summers, extreme weather events – marked impact.





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The project was divided into four main tasks:

1. Explore the vulnerability of the historic environment to current and future climate change

2. Assess the potential impacts of projected climate change on the historic environment of Wales

3. Review technical guidance, existing initiatives, programmes and case studies that are currently monitoring and measuring the impact of climate change on the historic environment, within, but not exclusively confined to, the UK.

4. Use this review to produce an assessment of how the anticipated climate changes may affect individual elements within the major asset types in order to assess their sensitivity to change.

The project predicted:• Extreme weather having a significant

impact upon certain historic assets• Long term trends may have greatest impacts• Direct and indirect impacts may have

consequences

Four basic descriptions of climate change were examined:

• Warmer mean temperatures• Hotter, drier summers• Warmer wetter winters/wetter summers• More frequent extreme weather





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The four basic descriptions are associated with the following 8 outcomes of change:

• Rise in sea levels• Longer growing season• Migration of pests and diseases into Britain• Drying out, desiccation and erosion of wetlands• Stress on some trees and plants• Drying and shrinking of clay soils• More flooding events• Frequent high winds/storms

The research identified 12 classes of Historic Assets to be assessed in terms of the impact of climate change:

• Historic landscapes• Historic parks and gardens• All historic buildings• Peat, peaty soils and blanket bog• Archaeological sites in an upland

environment excluding peat bogs• Historic assets below the 1.0 m contour• Historic assets on floodplains and

valley bottoms• Historic assets on the foreshore• Historic assets on the coast edge,

excluding those below the 1m contour• Historic assets in sand dunes• Archaeological sites on farmland• Forestry and woodland





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These were fairly broad categories and some assets such as historic buildings may appear under several categories.

The project identified a total of 36 potential impacts on historic environment assets. Risk matrices were created for the 36 impacts on the set of historic assets (not all predicted changes in climate will have an impact on the historic environment). The matrices assess the significance of impacts based on indications of extent, severity, and sensitivity.

Tasks 2, 3 and 4 were linked in that the review of current literature and technical guidance informed the risk assessment of the selected categories of environmental assets. The information from the three tasks was combined in the form of ‘asset impact matrices’ for each category of historical asset.

The matrix consists of the following sections for each identified outcome:

• Description of change• Outcome of change• Location: the area(s) to be affected by the change• Impact on historic environment assets -

consisting of a risk assessment score based on:• Scale: the extent of the impact on the historic

environment caused by the outcome of change• Severity: the severity of the impact of the

outcome of change on the historic environment• Sensitivity: the sensitivity of historic environment

assets to change• A qualitative risk assessment of historic assets• Specific gaps in knowledge• Responses to the outcomes of change





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Identified climate change impacts were scored on a 1 – 5 scale (see Table 2.1 below). The severity of each impact was assessed to identify the critical nature of the impact in both positive and negative terms. Scores range from +3 (a large beneficial impact) which might see a great improvement on the condition of the historic environment, to –3 (a large negative impact), which may see severe damage or destruction, with a score of 0 for a neutral impact. Sensitivity is scored on a 0 – 5 scale, where 0 indicates no sensitivity to change, to 5 which indicates a high level of sensitivity to change Table 2.2)

Climate change impacts and extent

TABLE 2.1 Impacts assessment in terms of the severity and extent:

5

+3

Number of assets in a class likely to be affected by particular change

Severity of climate impacts on assets

Limited

(Many but few affected)

1

- 3

Extensive

(Many but all affected)

Large

(Beneficial / improving)

ModerateSmallLarge

(Severe damage/destruction)

Moderate Small Neutral





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5

Highly sensitive

(Once lost / irreplaceable)

Moderately sensitiveNot sensitive

(Possible to conserve / repair)

Slightly sensitive

1 32 4

Overall signifianceof impact

= =

extent×

severity×

sensitivity

High negativeModerateSmallNeutralSmallModerateHigh positive

-75

0

+75

Sensitivity of historic assets to change

TABLE 2.2 Impacts on historic assets assessment in terms of their sensitivity to change:





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Based on a quantification of historic assets impacted by climate change undertaken by the Royal Commission on Ancient and Historic Monuments of Wales there were:

• 312 historic assets within the 0-1m contour• 12,745 at risk of flooding (based on the Environment Agency flood risk data)• 18,295 historic assets on peat type soils

A summary of the risk assessment was made which concluded that:

• All predicted climate changes have potential to have some effect

• More frequent extreme weather: impact on all categories (< submerged)

• Sea level rise: widespread impact on historic landscapes, archaeological remains <1m, valley bottoms, flood plains, foreshore

• Asset most potential to be impacted is historic landscapes

• Drying and shrinking clays: lowest potential impact affecting those historic buildings on clay soils

• Wide range changes impact upon historic parks and gardens & historic buildings

• The assets at high risk were those sited on floodplains, valley bottoms, below the 1m contour on the coast, and sited on peat soils as a result of the potential drying out.

• There are a large number of assets at moderate risk which cumulatively are very significant.

INTERREG IVC project CHARTS Good Practice Guide Climate Change




19.

Sea level Growing season Pests / diseases Drying out wetlands Plant stress Shrinking soils

Historic landscapes

Parks and gardens

Historic buildings

Peat, peaty soilsblanket bog

High negativeHigh risk

Moderate negativeMedium risk

Small negativeLow risk Neutral Small positive

Upland arch. sites

Below 1.0 m

Floodplains & valleys

Foreshore

Coast edge

Sand dunes

Arch. on farmland

Forestry & woodland

Outcome of change

Description of change Warmer mean temperatures

More flooding

Warmer, wetter winters /wetter summers

Frequent winds / storm

More frequent extreme weather

Hotter, drier summers

An overall risk matrix was prepared:





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Historic landscapes the risks are summarised below:• Many of moderate significance• Cumulatively of high significance• Most severe and widespread• More than any other asset type• New crops and farming practices• Changing vegetation and character (moorland

to pasture) – heather, bracken and grasses grow faster when warmer, obscuring earthworks on archaeological sites

Peat, peaty soils & blanket bog the risks are:• 18,000 archaeological sites• Drying out and desiccation• Susceptible to erosion• Changing towards mineral soils• Loss of paleo-environment record• Exposure of sites and artefacts

Historic assets below the 1m contour the risks are:• 0.4m rise by 2080• Storm surges 20x more frequent by 2100

(up to 1.9m)• Very serious threat 0-1m• Monuments, buildings, archaeological sites

• Also historic urban character

Historic assets on floodplains and valley bottoms the risks are:

• Increase in frequency and scale of flooding – severe impact

• Sudden impact floodwater• Buildings and fittings, structural integrity,

fungal and insect • Historic character settlements,

infrastructure, bridges• Pasture & hedges Vs arable

Historic buildings the risks are:• Extreme events / flooding• Migration pests & moulds affecting

decoration and fittings• Clay shrinkage – shallow foundations• Freeze-thaw, damp damage• Thermal expansion/contraction timber,

paint, slate, lead, thatch, earth, stonework, limestone

The risks to each category of historic asset are summarised below:





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Historic Parks & Gardens

• Variable – some positive, such as increased visitor numbers and revenue as a result of warmer temperatures, other negative

• Warmer temperatures, drier, storms, pests, diseases

• Existing management influential • Erosion of features• Replacement of losses• Species character and choice: native,

tolerance and resistance

Coastal Historic Assets

• Rising sea level• Extreme weather events• Flooding• Foreshore – some very sensitive to change,

others may be protected• Coastal edge – flooding and acceleration

of erosion of cliffs• Sand dunes – retreat, reshape

Archaeological sites on Farmland & Uplands

• Longer growing season, warmer mean temperatures

• Boundaries of marginal farmland• Land under cultivation• New crops• Erosion earthworks

Forestry & Woodland

• Longer growing season, warmer mean temperatures

• Boundaries of marginal farmland• Land under cultivation• New crops• Erosion earthworks

The analysis of the risk assessment of the historic assets has helped influence the setting of priorities and allocation of resources to assist with mitigation and adaptation measures. It has led to the recognition that not all assets can be saved. In respect of those assets at a high level risk, Cadw (Welsh Government) has established a grant aid programme to the 4 Archaeological Trusts in Wales to help fund:

• Recording and surveying archaeological sites at risk where conservation is not possible

• Undertaking archaeological excavations of threatened sites

In addition Arfordir a community based initiative is undertaking a programme to identify and record archaeological sites around the Welsh coast.

This strategic approach will inform future difficult decisions about what to conserve, save or accept the loss of the asset and decide which sites should be accorded priority for recording and rescue excavations.





22.

Methodology

Transferring the approach The methodology that was utilised is readily transferrable to other regions providing they have access to research and data on how their regions are forecast to be impacted by climate change. The first step is to define the assets which will be subject to the risk assessment, these could range from archaeological sites, historic landscapes, historic buildings, heritage attractions, to heritage tourism destinations; either individually or several in combination depending on the level of resources available. It could relate to a very specific asset such as the external carvings on archaeological monuments.





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Once the assets that are to be subject of the risk assessment have been selected it is then necessary to categorise them into specific categories. These categories will be defined not only by their specific characteristics but also by their physical location such as coastal, floodplain, valley bottom, forest (where there is a high risk of forest fires), mountainous etc. The selection of the key physical characteristics will be influenced by an understanding of the likely impacts of climate change on the region.

The availability of survey data on the assets which are to be the subject of the risk assessment will be essential if you wish to cover a region. The alternative is to select a relatively small area as a pilot. In the case of Wales there are registers of ancient monuments and historic landscapes, in addition the Royal Commission on Ancient and Historic Monuments in Wales has a comprehensive record of archaeological sites. In many cases accurate data on the physical location of sites will be all that is required.

The next step is to assess what will be the predicted physical impacts of climate change within your region; in southern Europe these may in southern Europe be heat waves resulting in droughts, wildfires and health problems for visitors and residents, loss and damage to beaches and coastal tourism facilities due to sea level rise and storm damage, a deterioration in biodiversity and landscape. In Northern Europe flooding as a result of extreme weather events and increased rainfall, coastal erosion, high winds and storm damage. An assessment of how each of these impacts will affect each of the categories of assets needs to be undertaken. There is also the scope to take account of the socio economic impacts resulting from the physical impacts of climate change such as changes in visitor seasons, and markets and from mitigation policies such as the potential for restriction on air travel.





24.

The severity and extent of the predicted climate change impacts range from a limited number of assets affected in a specific category to most of the assets impacted in the category - this is scored per category of asset from a score of 1 limited to 5 extensive. Again an assessment needs to be made of the severity of the impact range from large and severe with a negative score of -3 through to positive and improving with a positive score of +3. The sensitivity of each of the categories to the impact of climate change is undertaken on a scale of 0 not sensitive to 5 highly sensitive (once lost irreplaceable). The overall significance of the impact is then calculated by multiplying the extent score by the sensitivity score and then by the sensitivity score to give an overall score.

The result of the scores overall climate change impacts on each of the categories scores are then used to calculate an overall risk matrix highlighting the level of risk in respect of each category of asset against the projected climate change impact.

The overall risk matrix can then help determine a policy response identifying the priorities for intervention terms of adaptation, monitoring and recording in cases where it may not be feasible to save an asset.

The range of potential options to respond to the climate change impacts on specific categories of assets have to be identified together with their resource requirements and then analyse the optional policy response, in terms of resources and effectiveness. This will then be utilised to prepare an implementation plan, giving details of what actions are required, by whom and when.





25.

The approach will vary according to the asset and the projected impact. In the case of historic towns, the approach may be to prepare destination management plans which include measures to address climate change mitigation and adaptation as well as addressing wider issues such as improving the quality of the visitor offer and possibly targeting new markets and developing new products in response to anticipated changes to markets resulting from both the impact of climate change and mitigation policies. If this is the approach required then details of web links to sites providing advice is provided under the section relevant web links at the end of this report. If the asset is historic buildings the presentations made at the climate change seminar on climate change and traditional buildings by John Edwards and Paul Southall on the National Trust

approach to preparing for climate change will be helpful. In addition, the National Trust web site providing case histories is a valuable source, again the web link is provided at the end of this guide. If the assets of concern are the carvings on archaeological sites and historic buildings then reference to the presentation by Amanda Pedlow on the Offaly 3D laser scanning project may be helpful. A report on the seminar is appended to this guide.

The remainder of this guide looks in detail at each of the aspects that has to be addressed to successfully transfer the methodology.





26.

Governance issues relating to best practice

The first step is to identify the bodies responsible for the assets that are to be subject to the risk assessment and for ensuring their safety or conservation together with those responsible for tackling the specific impacts of climate change. In the Welsh example, it is the Welsh Government that has responsibility for all scheduled ancient monuments and buildings in care, as well as an overall policy responsibility it set the legislative and regulatory framework for local authorities and sponsored public bodies such as Natural Resources Wales. The other bodies with governance responsibilities are:





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Natural Resources Wales – brings together the work of the Countryside Council for Wales, Environment Agency Wales and Forestry Commission Wales, as well as some functions of Welsh Government. Its purpose is to ensure that the natural resources of Wales are sustainably maintained, enhanced and used, now and in the future.They protect and improve the places where people work, live and play all over Wales as well as help sustain natural beauty, wildlife and the opportunity for outdoor enjoyment in Wales and its inshore waters.

Royal Commission on Ancient & Historic Monuments for Wales – The Royal Commission is the investigation body and national archive for the historic environment of Wales. It has the lead role in ensuring that Wales’s archaeological, built and maritime heritage is authoritatively recorded, and seeks to promote the understanding and appreciation of this heritage nationally and internationally.

Local Authorities – are responsible for delivering statutory and other services to the communities they serve. These include economic development, emergency planning, fire and rescue, leisure and recreation, national parks, planning including conservation, strategic planning and transport. It can be seen that there is a wide range of bodies with a governance responsibility albeit they all come under the direction and or influence of the Welsh Government.

Consider who the key governance bodies in your region are, and what their specific responsibilities are in relation to the assets you propose to include in your risk assessment plan.





28.

Identification of partners and partnership arrangements

The identification of the partners will start with the identification of the bodies, which have governance responsibility, but are likely to extend beyond these. In the Welsh example this included in addition to the governance bodies, the Archaeological Trusts who had a delivery function, and the National Trust who were a major landowner and who operated a number of heritage attractions. Consider who the key partners in your region are in respect of the assets that you propose preparing a risk assessment for. They may be in the public, private or third sector.

Do you have an existing partnership structure in place which you can extend or do you need to create a new partnership? In the Welsh example there was an existing partnership in place the “Heritage Environment Group”, chaired by the relevant Government Minister or when unavailable the Director of Cadw.





29.

If a new partnership has to be created select the key partners who need to be ’invited’ to join on the basis of their governance responsibilities and those who are key to delivery. In creating a partnership it will be necessary to address the following issues:

• Agree the objectives for the partnership• Set out and agree both the joint and the individual responsibilities of the partners.• Agree how the partnership is to be resourced both in terms of officers providing the

secretariat, members providing meeting venues, funding for the research required and if required, the creation of a web site and other communications

• Which partner is to chair the partnership and which partner is to be responsible for undertaking the secretariat?

• How frequent should meetings be and do you need to set up a sub group to project manage the research and analysis and in which case how should the members be selected?

• Agree the timescale and milestones for the research and analysis. Should the partnership just cover the period for the research and analysis, or should they be responsible for the coordination of the implementation, monitoring and evaluation?

• The objectives of the partnership and the members of the partnership will need to be reviewed in the light of the research and analysis, and when the implementation phase begins, as the delivery phase may require new partners to be involved.





30.

Background research and data

What background research is available within your region or country about the projected impacts of climate change? The starting point is to find out what research has been undertaken for relevant government departments and government agencies. Identify which universities within your country or region have undertaken research in this field and contact them to find out if the research they have undertaken is relevant. If you are unable to find climate change research that is relevant within your own country, check whether other European countries which have a similar climate and topography have undertaken relevant research.





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Additional sources of research on climate change impacts are:

UNWTO

European Union

European Environment Agency

DEFRA, UK Government

Max Planck Institute of Meteorology

Department of Environment Heritage and Local Government, Irish Republic

National Trust

Noah’s Ark

Northern Ireland Environment Agency (2010)

Council of Europe

climate changehttp://sdt.unwto.org/en/content/climate-change-tourism

climate change policieshttp://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/brief/eu/index_en.htm

climate changehttp://www.eea.europa.eu/themes

UK climate change projections 2009http://www.defra.gov.uk/publications/2011/03/28/pb13274-uk-climate-projections-090617/

climate change and Variability Impact on Central and Eastern Europe (CLAVIER )http://www.clavier-eu.org/?q=node. National climate change strategyhttp://www.environ.ie/en/Environment/Atmosphere/ClimateChange/NationalClimateChangeStrategy/ Forest Research (2012) Implications on climate change on the historic environmentwww.forestry.gov.uk/fr/INFD-6GGH6A

Shifting shores: living with a changing coastline 2005http://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/servlet/file/store5/item349171/version2/UK%20shifting%20shorest.pdf

An EU funded initiative with numerous objectives all focussed at understanding, mitigating, adapting and disseminating information regarding the impact of climate change on European built heritage and cultural landscapeshttp://noahsark.isac.cnr.it/

The impacts of climate change on the built heritage of Northern Irelandwww.ni-environment.gov.uk

Sabbioni, C., Cassar, M., Brimblecombe, P. And R. Lefevre (2008) Vulnerability of cultural heritage to climate change. Report AP/CAT (2008) 44, European and Mediterranean Major Hazards Agreement (EUR-OPA)http://www.coe.int/t/dg4/majorhazards/ressources/Apcat2008/2008_44_culturalHeritage_EN.pdf





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You will also need reliable data on the assets that are to be the subject of the risk assessment; this could range from an archaeological field survey, to a list of historic buildings. The comprehensiveness and quality of this existing data will determine both the selection of the assets to be the subject of the risk assessment but also the scale of the work. If the data is limited and fresh survey work needs to be undertaken then the scale of the area to be covered or the range of assets will need to be limited and that the approach to be adopted should be seen as a pilot to test out the methodology.

Data can also be collected on climate change impacts that are already occurring such as flooding, coastal erosion forest fires etc, to assess the current level of risk. The Welsh project used flood risk maps produced by Natural Resources Wales which were based on past flooding incidents and areas that were assessed as being at risk of flooding.





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Identifying stakeholders & stakeholder consultation

It will be necessary to identify the stakeholders that are relevant to both the risk assessment and any proposed policies and actions designed to adapt the assets to the impacts of climate change and mitigate its effects. As part of this process it will be necessary to assess how important it is to consult them and get them involved. This process can also help identify any additional partners that are required. The diagram below illustrates the approach:

Stakeholders with power but limited interest

e.g. Government departments/agencies which do not have responsibility for heritage such as transport, economic development

Stakeholders with power & interest E.g. Government departments/agencies with responsibility for heritage

Local Government departments with conservation interests

Owners of the assets

Destination partnerships

Stakeholders with no power or interest

e.g. local residents, non-heritage related societies, ancillary businesses

Stakeholders with interest but no power

Archaeological & history societies, civic trusts, tourism associations

The media





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The approach divides the stakeholders into four categories. Firstly those bodies which have power in terms of regulation and resources and have a strong interest, and it is from this group you’re likely to draw your partners. Secondly those bodies that have power in terms of resources but have limited interest as their focus is on other areas such as tourism and economic development. Though they could be persuaded that it is relevant to them as the loss of heritage assets could be damaging to tourism and the local economy.

The third category are those bodies which have a strong interest but limited power such as archaeology and local history societies, though there may be scope to involve them through the use of volunteers to do monitoring or recording work. The final category are those people who will be affected through the loss of the heritage assets such as local residents but who currently have little interest or power.

Each of the four categories requires a different approach to consultation. In the case of those bodies with the power and strong interest, it will be necessary to have face to face meetings to explore what role they could play, whether they wished to become a partner and what research and data they could provide. For those bodies with limited interest but power, it will be necessary to first identify whether they have a potential role to play and if so to consider what case making could be involved to make them become interested in being involved thus moving them into the category of bodies with power and interest. Again face to face meetings will be necessary, with a clear agenda setting out what potential role they could play and the benefits to them in meeting their objectives.

The bodies/societies with a strong interest but limited power could be contacted through e newsletters and made aware of the research and analysis and be directly consulted for their views on the recommendations for actions, as well as possibly having a role to play in providing volunteers. The media, which also falls into this category, could be targeted with news stories illustrating the degree of threat posed by climate change to specific assets. The fourth category could be reached at the recommendation stage through media PR and newsletters to local organisations such as community or town councils. Again the aim should be to stimulate interest.





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What, if any, is the current approach to forecasting the potential impact of climate change on the heritage assets? What changes will be required to introduce the methodology set out in this guide?

Are the databases on assets to be assessed as adequate in relation to their physical location in terms of height and relationship to rivers, streams, coastline etc, in order for a risk assessment to be made? Is there an existing partnership in place which can take this project forward or is there a need to create a new partnership and if so who should be included in the partnership? If there is an existing partnership does it include all the partners who need to be involved to take this approach forward? Are there existing contingency plans to tackle any of the projected impacts of climate change on the heritage assets?

The starting point will be to undertake an audit of the current approach and from that identify what changes are required in terms of research and data collection, partnerships and organisationally.

Assessment of the current approach including an audit and identification of the changes required to achieve transfer





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Resource requirements both staff & financial

The starting point is to determine whether the risk assessment can be undertaken by in-house staff from partnership members or external consultants, the decision will depend on a number of factors:

• Timescale• Staff expertise• Staff available who can for several months be dedicated to the task• Availability of adequate data on the sub categories of heritage assets to be assessed• Financial resources available• Scale of the project

It may be that a combination of external consultants perhaps from a local university with the expertise in climate change impacts and in-house staff from the partners who have the detailed knowledge of the assets could be the most appropriate approach.

A study brief will need to be agreed with the partners setting out the objectives of the study, the terms of reference and the outputs that are required and the key milestones. It should identify what existing data and research is available; who should be consulted and suggest the broad methodology to be used.





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If in-house staff are to be used; then a calculation will need to be made of the person days that will be required and who is to provide them. Certain tasks could be distributed around the partners. If external consultants are to be used, in their tenders they should be asked to set out the methodology they will use, the staff that will form the team with CVs setting out their individual expertise and experience and the role they will each play in the team. An estimate of the number of days to be allocated, to each task and staff member, should be provided together with the costs per day of the individual staff members. The tender invitation should set out the criteria on which the successful tender will be selected and whether any of the criteria will be weighted. Criteria could include:

• Relevant experience• Ability to meet the objectives & terms of reference• Cost & value for money• Timescale

The budget for the commissioning of consultants will need to be agreed by the partners and must be realistic to cover the scale of work required. Apart from a budget to employ external expertise or to support an in-house team, it will also be necessary to budget for the consultation exercise required to inform stakeholders of the findings, to publish the final report and produce any web site or brochures that are required.





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Potential benefits of introducing the best practice

With the increasingly unpredictability of the weather and increasing number of extreme weather events, it’s imperative to assess the potential impacts of climate change on our heritage assets, and have in place an effective framework to address this challenge. This will enable those actions that are required to adapt and mitigate risk to heritage assets to be identified and prioritised, and will help ensure that resources are used effectively. It will also assist the process of making more difficult decisions as to whether to accept that some assets cannot be saved, but should be recorded instead.

The heritage assets are often a key element of the tourism offer for a region, and it is therefore essential to have a clear understanding of the potential negative impacts of climate change. It is also vital to have a clear action plan in place to ensure that as many of the heritage assets as possible survive or failing that, are properly recorded. This will not only benefit future generations but also help ensure that the tourism economy is not damaged by the loss of heritage assets.





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Implementation plan

The risk assessment of the heritage assets should lead into the preparation of an implementation framework setting out what actions if any that should be taken in for each of the heritage assets sub categories in respect of each of the climate change impacts. The bodies responsible for taking the actions should be identified and an indication of the level of resources required. This should be agreed by both the partnership as a whole and the individual partners identified to undertake specific actions.

In drawing up the implementation framework, the bodies identified to undertake specific actions may be wider than the existing partnership and it will be necessary to consider whether to invite them to join the partnership or they may be delivery bodies who could be funded to undertake identified actions.

The range of actions may vary from a programme of monitoring the assets to undertaking adaptation and mitigation measures, particularly in respect of assets such as historic buildings, and to recording and possibly rescuing archaeological excavations for sites at serious risk.

A table setting out an example of this approach using examples of sub categories from the Welsh example is set out on the next page:

Raglan Castle





40.

Heritage category

Heritage assets below 1m

Upland archaeological sites

Sites on peat, peaty soils,

blanket bogs

Historic buildings

Climate change impact

• Flooding resulting from sea level rise & warmer wetter winters/wet summers & extreme weather events

• Warmer mean temperatures• Longer growing season

• Hotter, drier summers• Drying out of wetlands

• Flooding resulting from sea level rise & warmer wetter winters/wet summers & extreme weather events

Action required

• Recording & possibly rescue archaeological excavations

• Monitor impacts

• Monitor impacts

• Increase where required capacity of gutters, drainpipes and drains to cope with increased levels of rainfall

• Monitor potential threat from streams or rivers

Body responsible

• Cadw through funding of archaeological trusts

• Cadw through funding of archaeological trusts

• Natural Resources Wales

• Owners of the property

Level of resource requirement

• High

• Low

• Modest

• Modest





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In the case of historic buildings, the actions may include mitigation measures, based on the National Trust approach – these are set out in the table below though some of the actions will only be relevant to larger properties in the ownership of bodies like the National Trust or local authorities:

MitigationReduce energy use

Using green energy sources

Action• Site audit of energy use• Training of staff• Heating optimisation including insulation• Metering & sub metering• Reporting performance• Use of low energy light bulbs & LED lighting

• Replacing oil fired boilers with biomass boilers• Using solar panels where they can be placed without

detriment to the appearance of the building• Explore scope for introducing hydro-electric schemes

on estates where there are streams or rivers

Body• Site Owner/manager

• Owners/managers

Resource requirement• Can have a positive impact

through lower energy costs

• May have a long term positive benefit in lower energy costs once the initial investment has been paid off





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Monitoring & Evaluation

It will be necessary to have an on-going programme to monitor the degree of change with the specific climate change impacts, together with their effects on the individual categories of historic asset. This data should be used to review the implementation framework, revise priorities and guide allocation of resources.

At the national level there is likely to be a programme monitoring climate change impacts and revising the forecasts of these changes. The data from these programmes needs to be fed into the review of the implementation framework.

The equivalent of Natural Resources Wales in Wales and the local authorities are likely to collect data on flooding incidents, coastal erosion, and forest fires and if this data is in map form then it may be possible to overlay it on maps of the sub-categories of historic assets to identify those assets which are being affected. In addition field surveys on a representative sample basis will need to be undertaken to record whether there are changes to the assets, with the use of photographs to help measure the changes. In the case of Wales, voluntary organisations are assisting with the monitoring of coastal assets to assess the impact of coastal erosion and flooding. The periodic use of aerial photography can also play an important role in helping to monitor, perhaps on a five yearly basis if resources allow.





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The monitoring data can also be used to evaluate how effective the original risk assessment was in predicting the potential impacts of climate change and whether the actions identified in the framework were appropriate or could be improved.

Identify & review climate change impacts research

Monitor climate change impacts on the assets and evaluate the effectiveness

of the implementation

Identify the historic asset categories by location &

character

Assess the extent & severity of the impacts on the assets

& their sensitivity

Develop adaptation & mitigation measures for the assets within an

implementation framework





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Conclusion

Climate change is real, and its impact is being increasingly felt through the increasing frequency of extreme weather events resulting in flooding and storm damage. Climate change impacts can threaten the loss or damage of many of our historic assets in the years ahead. The development of a risk assessment leading to an implementation framework, which is recommended by CHARTS, will help guide policy development and actions seeking to minimise the impact climate change will have on our historic environment, and guide the effective use of scarce resources. Not all assets can be saved, this approach will however highlight those which should be recorded, or even subjected to archaeological excavation.

Our historic assets are a valuable resource for future generations. They can also help support the local tourism industry helping to generate jobs and income for local communities. The approach set out in this guide can be piloted within other European regions to assess its value as a tool to help ensure the future of heritage assets across the continent.





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Appendix 1 - Climate change and the historic environment of Wales: A summary of impacts

Introduction

Climate model projections are now suggesting a rapid increase in global temperatures in the decades ahead, the size and rapidity of which is unprecedented in recorded history. The early effects of this are already apparent in Wales, with flooding and extreme weather events becoming ever more frequent. But what are the potential impacts of climate change on our built heritage, archaeological sites and historic landscapes?

The report on a strategic approach for assessing and addressing the potential impact of climate change on the historic environment of Wales for the Historic Environment Group was produced in 2012 to identify these issues. The report was produced in response to commitments in the Historic Environment Strategy for Wales and the climate change Strategy for Wales. Both the Minister for Housing, Regeneration and Heritage and the Environment and Sustainable Development Minister have approved the report, the findings of which are summarised in this booklet. The longer-term aim is to use this evidence to produce a Sectoral Adaptation Plan.





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Climate change projectionsScientists are confident that global temperatures will continue to rise. The impact of these global increases in temperature may be more complex at a regional level, but to make a preliminary assessment of the impact of climate change on the historic environment, the range of projected possible climate changes in Wales can be grouped under four broad headings:

• Higher mean temperatures throughout the year, with• Hotter, drier summers or wetter summer conditions• Warmer wetter winters • More frequent extreme weather, for example

flooding and droughts

The assessment focuses on the direct impacts of climate change. However, it is recognised that adaptive responses to change, such as the construction of flood defences, and measures to reduce carbon emissions, such as the construction of wind farms, also have a significant impact on historic character.

What is the historic environment?The historic environment comprises everything that results from the interaction between people and places through time. This includes all surviving physical remains of past human activity, whether visible, buried or submerged, and deliberately planted or managed. An historic asset is a component of the historic environment, such as an archaeological site, an historic building or part of an historic landscape.





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The impact of climate change on the historic environment will vary depending on the type of historic asset and its location.

Low-lying coastal areas face a significant threat from a predicted rise in sea levels of 0.4m by 2080, and by an increase in storm surges, predicted to be twenty times more frequent by 2100. Many of Wales’ historic towns lie partially within this zone, and so the potential damage and loss to individual buildings and to historic character is considerable. Mitigation, ranging from managed retreat to heavily engineered sea defences, is possible, but such defences could damage or affect the character of the historic assets they are designed to protect.

Foreshore areas and cliff edges are at risk from accelerating rates of erosion, making all historic assets, such as cliff top iron age hill forts, in these areas vulnerable.

Coastal sand-dunes in Wales cover and preserve prehistoric and later archaeological sites. These are dynamic ecosystems, and likely to be sensitive to rising sea levels and more frequent storms, affecting historic assets within them.

Floodplains and valley floors are at risk from an increase in the number and magnitude of floods caused by wetter conditions and more frequent storms. Over 5000 listed buildings and 12,000 archaeological sites, 300 of them scheduled ancient monuments, lie in these areas. The character of these sites may be altered by the construction of flood defences. Archaeological sites and structures such

as historic bridges could be damaged or destroyed as rivers shift their courses.

Historic buildings and their fittings could not only be severely affected by the sudden impact of flooding but by a series of individually less severe, but cumulatively significant impacts. These may include: insect infestation and fungal growth in warmer, more humid conditions; structural problems such as clay soils shrink in hotter, drier summers; dilapidation to stonework caused by more frequent freezing/thawing; damage as a result of extreme weather; and the thermal movement of materials such as slate, lead, timber and paintwork. At the very least, the result of climate change on historic buildings may be more frequent maintenance and higher insurance premiums.

Historic landscapes may experience a series of effects which, cumulatively if not individually, could have a great impact. Trees may be lost to new or existing diseases, their vulnerability exacerbated by stress caused by changing conditions. Historic farmland and upland landscapes may come under pressure as longer growing seasons and warmer summers provide opportunities for the introduction of new crops and farming practices. This will not only alter the character of historic landscapes, but also threaten individual historic assets lying within them.

Upland areas may be affected by hotter, drier conditions, which may result in the drying out and desiccation of peats and peaty soils which support a large proportion of Wales’ significant archaeological remains. Here, the loss of the organic content of peaty soils could transform the types of vegetation that can be supported, changing the historic character.

Summary of the impacts of climate change to the historic environment





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Historic parks and gardens celebrated for their exotic species may benefit from climate change as some heat-loving plants may flourish in warmer conditions. In other well-managed sites the character of parks and gardens will be altered as trees and plants lost to more frequent storms and to pests and diseases are replaced, in some instances with more resistant species. However, in unmanaged sites losses will not be replaced and the rate of degradation of trees and plants, and ‘hard’ landscape features could accelerate.

Ancient woodlands and hedgerows are not only an important ecosystem but are also a historic asset containing evidence for past human use. The potential effects of climate change on ancient woodland may be gradual but significant. Soil erosion, land-use change and replanting could all damage individual historic assets.

What next?

The next stage of work is addressing the need for an improved and locally accurate evidence base of what historic assets could be at risk and where. Spatial mapping work with specialist and technical resources will produce a more accurate visualisation of risk areas. This work will focus on four principal problem areas identified from the report: areas below the 1 metre contour, coast and foreshore, river valleys, floodplains and peats. All of this work will help plan for the future including the development of a sectoral adaptation plan, providing a framework for managing future change.

Reference to main reportPowell, J., Murphy, K., Ings, M., and Chambers, F.M. (2012) A strategic approach for assessing and addressing the potential impact of climate change on the historic environment of Wales, Report to Historic Environment Group – climate change Subgroup. CCRI: Gloucester.





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Appendix 2 - Outline of Content of an Invitation to Tender (ITT) from The National Trust

Title page would include:

• Invitation to tender (ITT)• For the attention of: xxx• Subject matter : develop and report on a

strategic approach for both assessing and addressing the potential impact of climate change on the historic environment of Wales.

Contents would include:

• Background information• Invitation to tender process• Responding to this invitation to tender• Timetable and award criteria • Statement of requirements• Questions

Dolwyddelan Castle





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Document Purpose

• The aim of this document is to invite possible suppliers to provide the National Trust / HEG with a tender proposal for the development and report on a strategic approach for both assessing and addressing the potential impact of climate change on the historic environment of Wales.

• The aim is to understand which of these suppliers will be capable of meeting the requirements, and to be in a position to identify a preferred supplier based on the information supplied.

The outcome of the Invitation to Tender process will form the framework for agreement between the National Trust / HEG and the chosen supplier. The National Trust / HEG will review the tender proposals and will then shortlist a number of suppliers with whom we may need to conduct a post tender clarification session, which may include a request to visit the supplier’s premises, to understand the supplier’s organisation and to understand how the service(s) would be delivered. The National Trust / HEG may also take into account other factors in their selection decision e.g. credit check, references from existing customers.





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The Interregional Cooperation ProgrammeINTERREG IVC, financed by the European Union`s Regional Development Fund, helps Regions of Europe work together

to share experience and good practice in the areas

of innovation,the knowledge economy, the environment and risk

prevention.EUR 302 million is available for project funding, but more

than that, a wealth of knowledge and potential

solutions are also on hand for regional

policy-makers.

Our historic assets are a valuable resource for future generations. They can also help support the local tourism industry helping to generate jobs and income for local communities. The approach set out in this guide can be piloted within other European regions to assess its value as a tool to help ensure the future of heritage assets across the continent.

www.charts-interreg4c.eu

INNOVATION & ENVIRONMENTREGIONS OF EUROPE SHARING SOLUTIONS

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