gonzalez, p., r.p. neilson, j.m. lenihan, and r.j. drapek · gonzalez, p. (2001) desertification...

SUPPORTING INFORMATION PAGE S1

Gonzalez, P., R.P. Neilson, J.M. Lenihan, and R.J. Drapek. 2010. Global patterns in the

vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change. Global Ecology and

Biogeography 19: 755-768.

Supporting Information

Appendix S1 Observed biome shifts.

Methods In November 2009, we conducted a systematic search of the ISI database of

scientific publications <http://www.isiknowledge.com>, which at the time contained citations

to over 91 million references, for published references of field research that documented the

occurrence or absence of biome shifts due to climate change. We searched on the terms

“biome shift,” “vegetation shift,” “range shift,” “species shift,” “ecotone shift,” “vegetation

shift climate change,” “biome shift climate change,” “no biome shift,” “no vegetation shift,”

“no evidence biome shift,” and “no evidence vegetation shift,” producing a list of 1952

references. We added references from Parmesan and Yohe (2003), Rosenzweig et al. (2007),

and Rosenzweig et al. (2008). We identified references that fit seven criteria: (1) the research

examined terrestrial plant species, (2) the research data examined a change in biome, not just

a change in select individual species, (3) the research collected data from field observations

(not just remote sensing), (4) the data included data in the 20th century, (5) the data spanned at

least 40 years, (6) the authors attributed observed vegetation distributions to climate, not land

cover change or other factors, and (7) the research used paired analysis or repeat

measurements. We found 19 cases that fit these criteria. We excluded cases of extreme events

(e.g. Allen & Breshears, 1998), movement of species within a biome (e.g. Walther et al.,

2005a; Kelly & Goulden, 2008; Parolo & Rossi, 2008), and remote sensing studies with no

field validation (e.g. Masek, 2001; Sanz-Elorza et al., 2003). We found that 15 cases detected

a biome change and attributed it to observed changes in temperature and precipitation. Four

cases found no biome change. The table below provides details of these 19 cases.

GONZALEZ ET AL. 2010 GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00558.x


Appendix S1 Observed biome shifts, continued

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Beckage, B., Osborne, B., Gavin, D.G., Pucko, C., Siccama, T. & Perkins T. (2008) A rapid

upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains

of Vermont. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 105, 4197–

4202.

Brink, V.C. (1959) A directional change in the subalpine forest-heath ecotone in Garibaldi

Park, British Columbia. Ecology, 40, 10–16.

Cullen, L.E., Stewart, G.H., Duncan, R.P. & Palmer, J.G. (2001) Disturbance and climate

warming influences on New Zealand Nothofagus tree-line population dynamics.

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Danby, R.K. & Hik, D.S. (2007) Variability, contingency, and rapid change in recent

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Urals treeline during the 20th century. Global Change Biology, 14, 1581–1591.

Gonzalez, P. (2001) Desertification and a shift of forest species in the West African Sahel.

Climate Research, 17, 217–228.

Kelly, A.E. & Goulden, M.L. (2008) Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate

change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 105, 11 823–11

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Kullman, L. & Öberg, L. (2009) Post-Little Ice Age tree line rise and climate warming in the

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Lloyd, A.H. & Fastie, C.L. (2003) Recent changes in tree line forest distribution and structure

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Masek, J.G. (2001) Stability of boreal forest stands during recent climate change: Evidence



from Landsat satellite imagery. Journal of Biogeography, 28, 967–976.

Mitchell, T.D. & Jones, P.D. (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of

monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International

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Parmesan, C. & Yohe, G. (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts

across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37–42.

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warming trend in the Alps. Basic and Applied Ecology, 9, 100–107.

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T.L., Seguin, B. & Tryjanowski, P. (2007) Assessment of observed changes and

responses in natural and managed systems. Climate Change 2007: Impacts,

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A. (2008). Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate

change. Nature, 453, 353–357.

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sandstone-plateau savanna woodland, Northern Territory, Australia. Journal of

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Suarez, F., Binkley, D., Kaye, M.W. & Stottlemyer, R. (1999) Expansion of forest stands into

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alpine treeline of north-western Canada. Journal of Ecology, 83, 873–885.



Walther, G.R., Beissner, S. & Burga, C.A. (2005a) Trends in the upward shift of alpine

plants. Journal of Vegetation Science, 16, 541–548.

Walther, G.R., Berger, S. & Sykes, M.T. (2005b) An ecological ‘footprint’ of climate change.

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Appendix S1 Observed biome shifts. References: 1 (Beckage et al., 2008), 2 (Brink, 1959), 3 (Cullen et al., 2001), 4 (Danby & Hik, 2007), 5 (Devi et al.,

2008), 6 (Gonzalez, 2001), 7 (Kullman & Öberg, 2009), 8 (Lloyd & Fastie, 2003), 9 (Luckman & Kavanagh, 2000), 10 (Millar et al., 2004), 11 (Payette,

2007), 12 (Payette & Filion, 1985), 13 (Peñuelas & Boada, 2003), 14 (Sharp & Bowman, 2004), 15 (Suarez et al., 1999), 16 (Szeicz & MacDonald, 1995),

17 (Walther et al., 2005b), 18 (Wardle & Coleman, 1992). Shift type: elevational (E), latitudinal (L), none detected (N). Biomes (and abbreviations), from

poles to equator: tundra and alpine (UA), boreal conifer forest (BC), temperate conifer forest (TC), temperate broadleaf forest (TB), temperate shrubland

(TS), tropical grassland (RG), tropical woodland (RW). Rate of change in temperature and fractional rate of change in precipitation are derived from linear

least squares regression of 1901-2002 data (Mitchell & Jones, 2005; main text, Methods section). Climate trends indicate general regional changes at

50 km spatial resolution because the references do not give uniform site-specific climate data to compare across locations; * indicates that rate is significant

at P ≤ 0.05. The table continues on the next page.

Location Refer-ence

Lati-tude

Longi-tude Plots

Time Period

Shift type

Retracting biome

Expanding biome

Temperature change

(ºC century-1)

Precipitation change

(century-1) Alaska Range, Alaska, USA 8 63.5 -149.5 18 1800-2000 L UA BC 1.1* 0.03 Baltic Coast, Sweden 17 55.5 14.0 7 1944-2003 L TC TB 0.6* 0.08 Garibaldi, British Columbia, Canada 2 49.9 -123.1 1 1860-1959 E UA BC 0.7* 0.16*

Goulet Sector, Québec, Canada 12 58.4 -76.6 2 1880-1980 E UA BC 1.4* 0.19* Green Mountains, Vermont, USA 1 44.2 -72.8 33 1962-2005 E BC TB 1.6* 0.06 Jasper, Alberta, Canada 9 52.4 -117.9 1 1700-1994 E UA BC 0.6 0.21* Kluane Range, Yukon, Canada 4 61.4 -139.4 2 1800-2000 E UA BC 0.7 0.05 Low Peninsula, Québec, Canada 12 58.4 -76.58 1 1750-1980 N - - 1.4* 0.19* Mackenzie Mountains, Northwest Territories, Canada 16 64.7 -129.1 13 1700-1990 N - - 1.4* 0.03

Montseny Mountains, Catalonia, Spain 13 41.8 2.4 50 1945-2001 E UA TB 1.2* -0.03



Appendix S1 Observed biome shifts, continued.

Location Refer-ence

Lati-tude

Longi-tude Plots

Time Period

Shift type

Retracting biome

Expanding biome

Temperature change

(ºC century-1)

Precipitation change

(century-1) Napaktok Bay, Labrador, Canada 11 57.9 -62.6 2 1750-2000 L UA BC 1.1* 0.05 Noatak, Alaska, USA 15 67.5 -162.2 18 1700-1990 L UA BC 0.6 0.19* Rahu Saddle, New Zealand 3 -42.3 172.1 7 1700-2000 N - - 0.6* 0.03 Rai-Iz, Urals, Russia 5 66.8 65.6 144 1700-2002 E UA BC 0.3 0.35* Sahel, Sudan, Guinean zones, Senegal 6 15.5 -16.3 135 1945-1993 L RW RG 0.4* -0.48*

Scandes, Sweden 7 62.3 12.3 123 1915-2007 E UA BC 0.8* 0.25* Sierra Nevada, California, USA 10 37.8 -119.2 10 1880-2002 E UA TC -0.1 0.21* South Island, New Zealand 18 -43.2 171 22 1980-1990 E TS TB 0.6* 0.03 Yambarran, Northern Territory, Australia 14 -15.7 130.5 33 1948-2000 N - - -0.06 0.35*



Appendix S3 Global areas of projected biome change (% of biome area) between the periods 1961–

1990 and 2071–2100, modeled by MC1. The table shows results of unanimous agreement of nine

general circulation model-emissions scenario combinations. Bold type indicates areas of no projected

biome change. Biomes, from poles to equator: ice (IC), tundra and alpine (UA), boreal conifer forest

(BC), temperate conifer forest (TC), temperate broadleaf forest (TB), temperate mixed forest (TM),

temperate shrubland (TS), temperate grassland (TG), desert (DE), tropical grassland (RG), tropical

woodland (RW), tropical deciduous broadleaf forest (RD), tropical evergreen broadleaf forest (RE).

As an example to read the table, nine combinations project that 77% of tropical woodland in 1990 will

remain tropical woodland in 2100, but that <1% of the biome may change to tropical grassland. MC1

models tropical woodland on 5% of global land in 1990, decreasing to 4% in 2100.

2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 2100 1990

IC UA BC TC TB TM TS TG DE RG RW RD RE Total

1990 IC 91 9 1

1990 UA 83 15 <1 <1 <1 2 <1 1 9

1990 BC <1 93 2 1 2 2 <1 15

1990 TC <1 90 9 1 4

1990 TB <1 92 8 <1 5

1990 TM <1 16 74 1 3 5 4

1990 TS <1 1 94 2 3 1 7

1990 TG 3 1 2 87 7 3

1990 DE <1 99 1 12

1990 RG <1 1 94 3 1 <1 11

1990 RW <1 77 22 1 5

1990 RD <1 98 2 9

1990 RE 1 99 15

2100 Total 1 8 15 4 5 4 7 4 12 11 4 10 16 100

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