goldratt's thinking proc
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Goldratt’s Thinking Process andSystems Thinking
James R. Burns
Fall 2010
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THEORY OF CONSTRAINTS:GOLDRATT
1. Identify the system constraints
2. Decide how to exploit the system
constraints3. Subordinate everything else to that
decision
4. Elevate the system constraints5. When this creates new constraints, go
back to step 1
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Reference(s)
Dettmer, H. William, Goldratt’s Theory of
Constraints, ASQ, 1997.
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THE ISSUES ARE:
What to change?
• {What is the core problem?}
What to change to?
• {Where to look for the breakthrough idea?}
How to effect the change?
• {How to bridge from a breakthrough idea to afull solution?}
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Goldratt’s TP (Thinking Process)
An excellent methodology to facilitatesessions during the initiation phase
(definition and conceptualization stage) ofa project
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Strategy for change
Create the tree
Critique the tree
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Why trees??
To get a complete picture of what is goingon
To model all of the causation involved
To see what is related to what
To identify the core problem
To validate a proposed injection
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What to change?
Team constructs a current reality tree(CRT)
Team starts by listing all undesirableeffects (UDE’s)
Team inter-relates these by use of a tree,
called a CRT In the current reality tree, the team traces
UDE’s back to a core problem (CP)
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EXAMPLES OF UDE’s
Due dates are often missed
It is difficult to respond to urgent demands
There is too much expediting
Inventory levels are too high
There are frequent material shortagesSafety stocks are inadequate
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Symptoms, Root Causes & a CoreProblem
Rather than reacting to symptoms, weshould be finding root causes
We consider undesirable effects to besymptoms
We look for a ―common cause‖ that is the
source for most of the undesirable effects
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A CRT for software development
Only 28% of software projects aresuccessful — on-time, within budget and
with full functionalitySoftware projects are always the slowest
projects to be completed• TI merged two divisions of the firm….
– It took 6 months to do all logistics
– It took 18 months to reconcile all of the softwaredifferences
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Example Current Reality TreeManaging Software
Development Projects
Is rarely successful
Software Development
Projects take too longSoftware Development
Projects cost too much
Software Development
Projects have quality
problemsA
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Software Development
Projects take too long
Software Development
Projects cost too much
Fixing changes
takes time
There are many late-
breaking changes torequirements
Fixing changes
costs money
Users discover newfeatures they want
included in the software
Users don’tknow what
they want
Users changetheir
minds
Users are untrained and not sophisticated
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Users are untrained and not sophisticatedLate in the lifecycle
Users discover new
features they want
included in the software
Project Managers do not
utilize “early discovery”
techniques with users
Project Managers
Do not train and teach
Users about software
development
Software Project Managers
Are poorly trained
And unaware of pitfalls in
Software projects
Software Project Managers
do not encourage use of
walkthroughs through
testing
Software is of poor
quality and takes
Much time/money to debug
A
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We conclude….
That the core problem is with poorlytrained software project managers
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The next construct is theEvaporating Cloud {EC}
The Evaporating Cloud is used to addressthe question…
What to Change to….
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Core problems are studied further byuse of an evaporating cloud
Evaporating clouds (ECs) will surfaceassumptions
Breaking an assumption leads to a
breakthrough called an injection
At this point the team is unconcerned withthe practicality of the injection
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What is an injection?
a solution to the core problem
a strategy that will mitigate all of the UDE’s
Injections that appear impossible toachieve are called flying pigs
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Example Evaporating Cloud
Many well-trained
Project Managers
Are available now
Training takes
much time/money,
requires trainers
Project Manager
expertise is
required now
Instant
Project Manager
expertise required
Project training is
long and arduous
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What have we learned from theEC above?
Many expert project managers are needednow
Creating well-trained project managerstakes time
Instant project management expertise is
required nowSOLUTION: Expert system for project
management
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INJECTION
Create a PM expert system
• An advisory system that novice Project
Managers can seek and obtain advice from.
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What to change to?
From the CRT and ECs, a Future Reality Tree(FRT) is constructed
One purpose of the Future Reality Tree is to validate that the injection will achieve thedesired effects (DE’s)
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Examples of DE’s
Due dates are rarelymissed
Demands are met 99% ofthe time
There is little expediting
Inventory levels are low
There are no materialshortages
Production lead times areshort or satisfactory
Due date perf. is high
Customers rely on quick
responses There is little expediting
Inventory levels arereduced significantly
Material is available when needed
Customers rely on quick responses
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Building the Future Reality Tree
Start by turning the UDE’s around and writing them with a positive tone as DE’s
Place DE’s at the top of the limbs in the FRT At the bottom of the FRT place the injection
Building the FRT is a two-phase process
• Build considering only positive, ideal links, andassuming win/win strategies
• Add negative loops later
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What to change to, Cont’d?
The idea here is to get a picture of how aninjection (a breakthrough) might affect the
overall performance of the system.The Future Reality Tree is the validation
that a collection of injections will turn all of
the UDE’s into DE’s
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Future Reality Tree for our example
Managing Software
Development Projects
Is usually successful
Software Development
Projects take reasonable
lengths of time
Software Development
Projects aren’t too
costly
Software Development
Projects create quality
productsA
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Software Development
Projects take too long
Software Development
Projects cost too much
There are many late-
breaking changes torequirements
Fixing changes
costs money
Users discover newfeatures they want
included in the software
Users don’tknow what
they want
Users changetheir
minds
Users are untrained and not sophisticated
Software Development
Projects take too long
Software Development
Projects cost too much
There are many late-
breaking changes torequirements
Fixing changes
costs money
Users discover newfeatures they want
included in the software
Users don’tknow what
they want
Users changetheir
minds
Users are untrained and not sophisticated
Software Development
Projects take reasonable
Lengths of time
Software Development
Projects aren’t too
costly
There are few late-
breaking changes torequirements
Fixing changes
costs money
Users discover no newfeatures they want
included in the software
Users don’tknow what
they want
Users rarelychange their
minds
Users are more trained and sophisticated
Fixing changes
takes time
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Users are trained and sophisticatedLate in the lifecycle
Users rarely discover
features they want
included in the software
Project Managers
utilize “early discovery”
techniques with users
Project Managers
Do train and teach
Users about software
development
Software Project Managers
use an expert system
To avoid pitfalls in
Software projects
Software Project Managers
encourage use of
walkthroughs through
testing
Software is of good
quality and dubbing
is inexpensive and quick
A
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Last Question….
How to cause the
change?
We will use two more trees
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How to cause the change?
The prerequisite tree
The transition tree
These help to get buy-in
These help us to develop a strategy for
achieving a flying pig (an injection thatappears impossible to achieve orimplement)
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The Prerequisite Tree
Place INJECTIONS at the top
List the obstacles that are expected
For each obstacle that is overcome, anintermediate objective is achieved
• Each obstacle gives rise to an intermediate objective
The intermediate objectives need to besequenced
The prerequisite tree does the sequencing
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OBSTACLE INTERM. OBJECTIVE
No well-defined ES
Architecture
There are manycommercially-
available ES Shells
Pick an appropriate
ES Architecture
Select an appropriateES Shell
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The Prerequisite Tree, Cont’d
Takes an impediment or obstacle approach
This approach enables dissection of the
implementation task into an array ofinterrelated, well-defined, intermediateobjectives
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The Prerequisite TreeOur Example
Create Project
Management
Expert System
Test Project
Management
Expert System
A
Objective
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Construct Project
ManagementExpert System
Select Expert
System Shell
Codify PM Body
of Knowledgeinto Expert
System Shell
Obtain PM Body
of Knowledge
Decide upon
Expert System
Architecture
A
No well-defined PMBody of Knowledge
No well-defined ES
Architecture
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The Transition Tree
We know where we stand
We identified the core problem
We found an injection (one or more) thatproduces the desired effects
We found the milestones of the journey--
the intermediate objectives (IO’s) The question now is What specific actions
must we take?
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The Transition Tree, Cont’d
We must focus, not on what we plan to dobut on what we plan to accomplish
For each IO, a specific action or set ofactions are determined and initiated
Causing a specific change in reality is the
imperativeThe transition tree provides a ROAD MAP forgetting from here to there!
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The Four-Element Transition Tree
Expected
effect
Condition of
reality
Unfulfilled
need
Specific
action
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Expected
effect
Condition of reality
Unfulfilledneed
Specificaction
Unfilledneed
Condition of
reality
Unfulfilled
need
Specific
action
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The Transition TreeOur Example
Create Project
Management
Expert System
Test Project
Management
Expert System
A
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Th t’ it f G ld tt’ C iti l
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That’s it for Goldratt’s Critical
Thinking
To get the full version, you have to go toNew Hampshire (Goldratt Institute) , spend
two weeks and $10,000To learn more, please refer to…
www.eligoldratt.com