gold mining in emerging africa… challenges and ... 2014...gold mining in emerging africa ... s...
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Gold mining in emerging Africa…challenges and opportunities
PDAC, March 2014
Africa…a world class gold destination
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AFRICA
DemocraticRepublic
of theCongo
Mali
BurkinaFaso
Côted’Ivoire
Morila mine(Mali)
Loulo mine
complex(Mali)
Gounkoto
mine(Mali)
Massawa(Senegal)
Tongon mine (Côte d’Ivoire)
Kibali
mine
development(DRC)
Exploration focus
Senegal
Randgold Resources…outperforms with its focus on Africa
Randgold Resources
2002 to 2014
Share price comparison
The gold industry us been unable to replace new gold production despite higher global exploration budgets…
0
10
20
30
50
70
80
90
40
60
Moz US$m
3 year average
potential
production in
new
discoveries
Grassroots
+ 75% of
late stage
budgets
0
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
1997 201102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 1098 99 00 0
Source: Metal Economics Group 2012
3 year ave production
potential from discoveriesWorld gold production) Exploration budgets
Shortage of quality projects and discoveries led to global reserve grade decline…
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Reserve Grade
Reserve Grade
Source: Scotiabank Feb 2014
g/t
?
SE Asia
RussiaCentral Asia
Canada
USA
Geology is the key driver in finding world class gold deposits…
Americas - 628
2.2Boz / 0.5g/t
Africa - 222
1.4Boz / 1.4g/t
Europe / Central Asia - 247
0.9Boz / 0.8g/t
Australasia - 268
1.3Boz / 0.6g/t
Total global gold resources – 1 465
5.8Boz / 0.6g/tSource: Metals Economics Group – includes all global assets with >500oz contained Au
Central America
AustraliaWest Africa
Central Africa
South Africa
South America
Alaska
Exploration heads to new frontiers…announced 2012 drill results
Source: SNL Metal Economics Group
Risks facing the African mining industry…
Two significant trends:
Social issues have become far more prominent
Benefits to stakeholders have become the focus
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Uncertainty concerning the administration, interpretation and enforcement of existing regulations
2011/12
2012/13
Resource nationalisation
Social licence to operate - sharing the benefits
Host country national skills
Increased regulation
Access to secure energy
Pipeline shrinkage
Threat of substitutes
Capital dilemma – capital allocation and access
Africa mining code and legislation change…what are the drivers?
Mining code legislation
changes 2008 to 2013
Mining codes currently
under review
AFRICA
Sources: EY Research, Deloitte, Randgold
African mining codes…how they compete depends on project performance
Proportion of cash flows to StateDiscount rate 10%
Cash operating costs US$ 700/oz
Gold price US$ 1200
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
%
Randgold Resources…evaluates risk and reward holistically
geological opportunity
political stability
economic and fiscal regime
infrastructure
Dependent on a qualitative
assessment combining:
Mauritania
Mali
BurkinaFaso
Morocco Tunisia
EgyptLibya
CAR
Niger
Nigeria
Zambia
Namibia
Angola
Tanzania
DRC
EthiopiaS Sudan
South
Africa
Zimbabwe
Botswana
Kenya
Algeria
Congo
Malawi
Uganda
Rwanda
Burundi
Cameroon
Chad
A
B
C
D
Senegal
Guinea Bissau
Guinea
Sierra Leone
LiberiaIvory
Coast
Gabon
BeninTogo
Ghana
Eritrea
Somalia
Eq Guinea
Madagascar
Mozambique
Swaziland
Lesotho
Western Sahara
N Sudan
Juniors…has their role in the resource value chain changed for the good?
Junior companies’ share price performances…2010 to 2014
A B
C D
Exploration and development is what creates value…
• Exploration and evaluation through feasibility is driven by the resource triangle
Reserve definition
Indicated and measured resources
Inferred resources
Advanced targets
Follow-up targets
Identified targets
VALUE
Operating
Mines
The
Resource
Triangle
Size does count...what is world class?
Assume a project with the following characteristics:
Total cash cost: US$ 900/oz
Upfront capital: US$ 500 million
Ongoing capital: 3% of total cash cost
Annual production in base case: 200 000oz
Base case gold price of US$ 1 600/oz
Three scenarios considered:
1 million ounce deposit
3 million ounce deposit
10 million ounce deposit with annual production doubled to 400 000oz
In the 10 million ounce scenario:
Upfront capital increases fromUS$ 500m to US$ 690m
Total cash cost drops from US$ 900/oz to US$ 760/oz
IRR
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Gold Price US$/oz
P1 : 1M oz
P2 : 3M oz
P3 : 10M oz - throughput doubled
Project gold price sensitivity - IRR
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Gold price US$/oz
Impact of feasibility input costs on IRR with different reserve basis…
Effect of dropping the grade/recoveries by 10% or increasing the cost by 10%...
The bigger deposit can withstand the effect of negative variances in key project parameters
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Gold price US$/oz
IRR
Project gold price sensitivity – IRR
Effect of cost increases
P1: 1Moz
P2: 3Moz
P3: 10Moz – throughput doubled
P3a: 10Moz – throughput doubled and
cost increased by 10%
P1: 1Moz
P2: 3Moz
P3: 10Moz – throughput doubled
P3a: 10Moz – throughput doubled and
grade/recoveries reduced by 10%
Project gold price sensitivity – IRR
Effect of grade/recovery decrease
IRR
Value creation through exploration and development depends on evaluation and feasibility studies…
Valu
e
Time
exploration discovery
production
development
Brownfields
exploration:
further
discovery
Feasibilities are about proper testwork and
correct and realistic assumptions:Geology Mine plans Metallurgy Reserves Trade-offs
Financial modelling Baseline and impact studiesSocio-economic
Environmental Investment terms and agreements
Feasibility
Reinvestment and sustainability
Delivery of value
Social licence enabled by a partnership philosophy…
Provide enabling platform for business
Provide or incentivise development of infrastructure
Mining code conducive to fiscal stability and good governance
Mining
Companies
and
Investors
Employees
and
communities
Governments
NGO’s and
Regulators
Attract first world finance
Guard against exploitation of equity markets at expense of host country
Deal honestly and transparently with governments
Create jobs
Transfer skills
Support local suppliers
Have meaningful social responsibility programmes
Responsibility of
mining companies:
Responsibility of
Governments:
Randgold Resources…its focus on Africa has delivered value for all stakeholders
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Randgold Production (000oz) Randgold LSE
Euromoney Global Gold Mine Randgold Cash Costs (US$/oz)
-373-493-379-603-252-335-90-77-34-76-22 -373-493-379-603-252-335-90-77-34-76-22 -373-493-379-603-252-335-90-77-34-76-22 -38
Net debt
US$m
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Barclays, Bloomberg
US$/oz
Index
Shareprice
Disclaimer…
Competent persons:COMPETENT PERSONS: Yalea and Gara mineral resources from Loulo were calculated by Mr Abdoulaye Ngom, an officer of the company, under thesupervision of Mr Jonathan Kleynhans, an officer of the company and competent person. Loulo 3 and Baboto mineral resources from Loulo werecalculated by Mr Ivan Doku, an independent consultant, and reviewed by Mr Jonathan Kleynhans, an officer of the company and competent person.Faraba mineral resources from Gounkoto were calculated by Mr Jonathan Kleynhans, an officer of the company and competent person. Tongon mineralresources were calculated by Mr Mamadou Ly and Mr Babacar Diouf, both officers of the company, under the supervision of Mr Jonathan Kleynhans, anofficer of the company and competent person. Morila mineral resources were calculated by Mr Adama Kone, an officer of the company, under thesupervision of Mr Jonathan Kleynhans, an officer of the company and competent person. Kibali mineral resources were calculated by Mr Ernest Doh, anofficer of the company and competent person. Morila open pit resources were calculated by Miss Paula Oligive, an independent consultant, under thesupervision of Mr Jonathan Kleynhans, an officer of the company and competent person. Gounkoto mineral resources were calculated by Mr Fredrick deBruin, an independent consultant, under the supervision of Mr Jonathan Kleynhans, an officer of the company and competent person. Mr JohanKleynhans and Mr Rodney Quick are members of SACNASP and both have sufficient experience in the style of mineralisation and types of depositsunder consideration and the activity which they are undertaking as competent person as defined in the 2004 addition in the ‘Australasian Code forReporting Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves’.The Loulo, Tongon, Morila and Gounkoto open pit mineral reserves were calculated by Mr Shaun Gillespie, an independent consultant and competentperson and member of SAIMM. Kibali open pit mineral reserves were generated by Mr Nicholas Coomson, an officer of the company and competentperson and member of AusIMM. Loulo underground reserves were calculated by Mr Mamou Toure, an officer of the company, and reviewed by Mr MarkOdell, an independent consultant and competent person and practising professional engineer. Massawa mineral reserves remain unchanged from lastyear and were calculated by Mr Onno ten Brinke, an independent consultant and competent person and member of AusIMM, and reviewed by MrRodney Quick, an officer of the company and competent person. The Kibali underground mineral reserves were calculated by Mr Tim Peters of PiranMining and reviewed by Mr Dan Donald of Mine RP, both independent consultants and competent person and members of AusIMM. All competentperson have sufficient experience in the style of mineralisation and types of deposits under consideration and the activity which they are undertaking ascompetent person as defined in the 2004 addition in the ‘Australasian Code for Reporting Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and OreReserves’.Cautionary note to US investors: The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC) permits mining companies, in their filingswith the SEC, to disclose only proven and probable ore reserves. Randgold uses certain terms in this report such as ‘resources’ that the SEC does notrecognise and strictly prohibits the company from including in its filings with the SEC. Investors are cautioned not to assume that all or any parts of thecompany’s resources will ever be converted into reserves which qualify as ‘proven and probable reserves’ for the purposes of the SEC’s Industry Guidenumber 7.
CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: Except for the historical information contained herein, the matters discussedin this presentationare forward-look ing statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the US Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the USSecurities Exchange Act of 1934, and applicable Canadian securities legislation. Forward-look ing statements include, but are not limited to, statementswith respect to the future price of gold, the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the realisation of mineral reserve estimates, the timing andamount of estimated future production, costs of production, reserve determination and reserve conversion rates. Generally, these forward-look ingstatements can be identified by the use of forward-look ing terminology such as ‘will’, ‘plans’, ‘expects’ or ‘does not expect’, ‘is expected’, ‘budget’,‘scheduled’, ‘estimates’, ‘forecasts’, ‘intends’, ‘anticipates’ or ‘does not anticipate’, or ‘believes’, or variations of such words and phrases or state thatcertain actions, events or results ‘may’, ‘could’, ‘would’, ‘might’ or ‘will be taken’, ‘occur’ or ‘be achieved’. Assumptions upon which such forward-look ingstatements are based are in turn based on factors and events that are not within the control of Randgold Resources Limited (‘Randgold’) and there is noassurance they will prove to be correct. Forward-look ing statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that maycause the actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements of Randgold to be materially different from those expressed or implied by suchforward-look ing statements, including but not limited to: risks related to mining operations, including political risks and instability and risks related tointernational operations, actual results of current exploration activities, conclusions of economic evaluations, changes in project parameters as planscontinue to be refined, as well as those factors discussed in Randgold’s filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the ‘SEC’). AlthoughRandgold has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-look ingstatements, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that suchstatements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly,readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Randgold does not undertake to update any forward-look ing statements herein,except in accordance with applicable securities laws.CAUTIONARY NOTE TO US INVESTORS: The SEC permits companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proven and probable orereserves. We use certain terms in this release, such as ‘resources’, that the SEC does not recognise and strictly prohibits us from including in our filingswith the SEC. Investors are cautioned not to assume that all or any parts of our resources will ever be converted into reserves which qualify as ‘provenand probable reserves’ for the purposes of the SEC’s Industry Guide number 7.