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2018EDITION 1

GOLD COAST

GOLD COASTREGIONAL CENTREOVERVIEW

2

OVERVIEWGOLD COAST REGIONAL CENTRE

E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8AT A GLANCE

7.98%

3.98%THE GOLD COAST HOUSE MARKET PREVIOUSLY PEAKED IN 2008 BEFORE EXPERIENCING FOUR YEARS OF STAGNANT GROWTH. SINCE 2012 HOUSES HAVE GROWN APPROXIMATELY 33% OR 5.9% COMPOUNDED PER ANNUM.

This growth over the last five years

is just under the long term rate of

7.98% per annum experienced

since 1978 PA compounded.

YIELDS FOR HOUSES HAVE

BEEN ON A DOWNWARD

TREND SINCE 2012

& CURRENTLY SIT AT

3.98%. UNIT YIELDS

HAVE BEEN STAGNANT

SINCE 2012 AND SIT AT

5.26%.

After experiencing a high of

4.3% in 2011, vacancy rates

are currently at 1.7%. In

2017, dwelling approvals are

18% lower than 2015 levels.

THE CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAS DROPPED TO

and has been on a downward trend since 2015. The Gold Coast’s unemployment rate is below the current national rate of 5.6%.

THE GOLD COAST’S POPULATION HAS INCREASED ON AVERAGE

2.57% PER ANNUM OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS. FORECASTS SUGGEST

THAT THE POPULATION WILL RISE TO 882,600 PEOPLE BY 2036.

THERE ARE CURRENTLYAPPROXIMATELY

PROPERTIES FOR SALE IN THE GOLD COAST REGION.

Median rent for houses on the Gold Coast is $480 and $425 for units. There has been approximately 18% growth in rent since 2012, compared to the 41% growth in prices for houses.

GOLD COAST

2018

4.8%

0 1M750K500K250K

8,653

# OF SALES

JA

N 2

017

FE

B 2

017

AP

R 2

017

MA

R 2

017

MA

Y 2

017

JU

N 2

017

1,016 1,215 998 639 1,124 1,124


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8

3


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8GOLD COASTOVERVIEW

The Gold Coast is currently the 6th most populated area in the nation, with the

latest ABS figures showing a population base of 591,721. This area holds 2% of the

Australian population and on average has grown by approximately 12,478 people

per annum since 2007.

The Gold Coast property market has experienced historic compounding growth

rates of 7.98% for houses and 5.74% for units since 1978 & over the past 10 years

the market has run at a growth rate of 2.91% for houses and 1.29% for units.

In 2016, the dominant sector was Construction which contributed 11.2% to GRP.

This was followed by Health Care & Social Assistance at 10%. As a regional centre

this is considered a well diverse economy.

Over 2017 there is approximately $2000 per person committed to public

infrastructure spending in the Gold Coast Region, with peak spending occurring

in 2017 off the back of the Commonwealth Games in 2018. $2000 per person

of spending in the pipeline is considered below average based on the national

average of $3000 per person.

Rail Line Duplication Coomera to Helensvale / Carrara Sports Precinct /

University Hospital / Commonwealth Games Venues & Village / Gold Coast

Light Rail Stage 2 / Cultural Precinct

MAJORPROJECTS APPROVED

GOLD COAST AS WE SEE ITWe believe this market is showing Some to Limited Value.

Given the rate of long term growth, economic diversification and the

population base we believe it is best suited to a Short to Medium Term

Trading Strategy.

We classify the Gold Coast as a Medium to High Risk investment based

on the size of the population, population growth, stage of the cycle and

economic factors.

4


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8

CONTENTSKey Indicator 1

THE ECONOMY Gross Regional Product

Council Budget

Industry Diversity

Key Indicator 2

AFFORDABILITY Gross Affordability Index (House) V. Price Growth

Gross Affordability Index (Unit) V. Price Growth

Median Price V. Income

Median Price V. Rent

Key Indicator 3

DEMAND FACTORS Population

Population Pyramid

Unemployment Rate

Job Creation

Infrastructure Spending

Airport Arrivals

Positive

Positive

Positive

Slightly Positive

Slightly Positive

Slightly Positive

Slightly Positive

Slightly Positive

Slightly Positive

Slightly Positive

Slightly Positive

Slightly Positive

Negative

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

Positive

Positive

Positive

Positive

Slightly Negative

Key Indicator 4

SUPPLY FACTORS Vacancy Rate V. Median Rent

Dwelling Approvals

Bedroom Commencements V. Population

Stock on Market

Key Indicator 5

INVESTMENT VALUE Long Term Performance

Yield

House V. Unit Price Movements

Gold Coast V. Brisbane Price

Price Comparisions

5


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8

AVOID

CAUTIONLIMITEDVALUE

VALUE

GO

LD C

OA

ST S

UB

UR

B R

AN

GE

- H

OU

SES

For more information on the Gold Coast market, including individual property and suburb selections,

call to speak to one of our professional property advisors on 03 8539 0300.

OUR VIEW OF THE GOLD COAST HOUSE MARKET

LIMITED VALUE

The market is showing some

value opportunities. Overall, most

fundamental indicators support

growth.

We believe that currently this market is showing Some to Limited Value.

AVOID

The market is showing no value

and price falls in the short term are

possible. There are no fundamentals

that support price growth in the short

term.

CAUTION

The market is close to being

overvalued and/or oversupplied. We

see minimal growth over the short- to

medium-term.

VALUE

The market is showing good value on

most properties. Many fundamental

indicators exist which support strong

growth.

6


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8

AVOID

CAUTIONLIMITEDVALUE

VALUE

GOLD COAST

SU

BU

RB

RA

NG

E -

UN

ITS

For more information on the Gold Coast market, including individual property and suburb selections,

call to speak to one of our professional property advisors on 03 8539 0300.

OUR VIEW OF THE GOLD COAST UNIT MARKET

LIMITED VALUE

The market is showing some

value opportunities. Overall, most

fundamental indicators support

growth.

We believe that currently this market is showing Some to Limited Value.

AVOID

The market is showing no value

and price falls in the short term are

possible. There are no fundamentals

that support price growth in the short

term.

CAUTION

The market is close to being

overvalued and/or oversupplied. We

see minimal growth over the short- to

medium-term.

VALUE

The market is showing good value on

most properties. Many fundamental

indicators exist which support strong

growth.

N E U T R A L

7


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCTV. MEDIAN PRICE35,000

25,000

30,000

$700,000

$600,000

20,000

$300,00015,000

10,000 $200,000

$500,000

$100,0005,000

$400,000

GRP ($Mil) Median House Price Median Unit Price

0 $-

2007200620052004200320022001 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$220,000

$165,000

$285,000

$195,000

$352,500

$245,000

$400,000

$300,000

$415,000

$315,000

$432,000

$330,000

$487,500

$365,000

$504,000

$380,000

$495,000

$370,000

$517,000

$380,000

$484,500

$363,500

$470,000

$350,000

$495,000

$352,000

$525,000

$365,000

$561,000

$380,000

$595,000

$402,000

$627,250

$420,000

S L I G H T L YP O S I T I V E

8


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8

GOLD COAST CITY COUNCIL BUDGET POSITION

$350,000,000

$200,000,000

$250,000,000

$300,000,000

$150,000,000

$100,000,000

$-

-$50,000,000

$50,000,000

20172016201520142013201220112010

$98,340,000

-$22,620,000

$76,640,000$68,163,000

$155,104,000

$329,222,000

$176,600,701

$138,875,024

P O S I T I V E

9


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8INDUSTRY DIVERSITY

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, 2.70%

Wholesale Trade, 6.00%

Retail Trade, 7.70%

Construction, 11.20%

Accommodation and Food Services, 5.60%

Transport, Postal and Warehousing, 4.20%

Information Media and Telecommunications, 3.20%

Financial and Insurance Services, 7.80%

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, 6.90%

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, 5.60%

Administrative and Support Services, 3.70%

Education and Training, 6.40%

Public Administration and Safety, 4.10%

Health Care and Social Assistance, 10.00%

Arts and Recreation Services, 2.00%

Other Services, 3.00%Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, 0.40%

Mining, 0.60%

Manufacturing, 8.90%


10


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8GROSS AFFORDABILITY INDEX (HOUSE) V. PRICE GROWTH

70%

10%

15%

35%

30%

25%

20%

60%

50%

5%

40%

0%

30%

20%

-5%

10%

Median House Price Affordability Index (State Income) (Avg 40%)

0% -10%

1990

1993

1992

1991

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

60%

-3%

45%

-3%

38%

4%

34%

7%

44%

9%

46%

0%

37%

-1%

27%

4%

29%

5%

29%

1%

33%

5%

28%

13%37%

30%

43%

24%

50%

13%

51%

4%

52%

4%

59%

13%

66%

3%

35%

-2%

46%

4%

40%

-6%

35%

-3%

30%

5%

31%

6%

30%

7%

32%

6%

33%

5%


11


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8GROSS AFFORDABILITY INDEX (UNIT) V. PRICE GROWTH

60%

60%

80%

120%

100%50%

40%

40%

20%

30%

20%

0%10%

Median Unit Price Affordability Index (State Income) (Avg 31%)

0% -20%

1990

1993

1992

1991

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

51%

-9%

38%

-6%

32%

3%

29%

9%

39%

14%

40%

1%

34%

4%

25%

3%

25%

0%

26%

4%

28%

-1%

21%

0%

25%

18%

30%

26%

38%

22%

38%

5%

40%

5%

44%

11%

50%

4%

26%

-3%

34%

3%

30%

-4%

26%

-4%

21%

1%

21%

4%

20%

4%

21%

6%

22%

4%

N E U T R A L

12


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8MEDIAN PRICE V. INCOME$1,600

$1,400

$1,200

$700,000

$600,000

$1,000

$500,000

$800

$400,000

$600

$300,000

$400

$200,000

$200

House Median Unit Median Income QLD Income GC

$100,000

$- $-

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

$195,000

$220,000

$285,000

$352,500

$400,000

$415,000$432,000

$487,500

$504,000$495,000

$517,000

$484,500

$1,174

$470,000

$495,000

$525,000

$561,000

$595,000

$627,250

$1,017

$1,404

S L I G H T L YN E G A T I V E

13


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8MEDIAN PRICE V. RENT$600 $700,000

$600,000$500

$500,000

$400

$400,000

$300

$300,000

$200

$200,000

$100

House Rent Unit Rent House Median Unit Median

$100,000

$- $-

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$395

$350

$400

$350

$405

$350

$420

$350

$430

$360

$450

$380

$460

$395

$480

$425

P O S I T I V E

14


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8POPULATION

4.0%

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

Gold Coast Queensland Australia

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0%

3.1%

2.3%

1.6%

3.7%

2.6%

1.9%

3.1%

2.8%

2.2%

3.0%

2.1%

1.8%

2.1%

1.6%

1.4%

1.8%

1.8%

1.6%

2.6%

2.0%

1.8%

2.4%

1.7%

1.7%

2.0%

1.5%

1.4%

2.1%

1.4%

1.3%

2.4%

1.6%

1.6%

N E U T R A L

15


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8POPULATION PYRAMID

Gold Coast City Greater Brisbane

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 2016 (Usual residence data)Compiled and presented in profile.id by .id, the population experts.

Males

2.0 2.01.5 1.51.0 1.00.5 0.50 0

Females

Age in years

95 - 99

90 - 94

85 - 89

80 - 84

75 - 79

70 - 74

65 - 69

60 - 64

55 - 59

50 - 54

45 - 49

40 - 44

35 - 39

30 - 34

25 - 29

20 - 24

15 - 19

10 - 14

5 - 9

0 - 4

% of males % of females

P O S I T I V E

16


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

6.0%

10.0%

9.0%

8.0%

7.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

Gold Coast QLD

0.0%

20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

7.9%

8.9%

8.1%

6.7%

5.7%

4.7%

3.9%3.7%

3.3%

4.9%

6.2%

6.0%5.8%

5.7%5.6%

5.8%

5.4%

4.8%

N E U T R A L

17


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8JOB CREATION INDEX140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Aug 2

010

Oct

20

10

Dec

20

10

Feb

20

12

Feb

20

13

Feb

20

14

Feb

20

15

Feb

20

16

Feb

20

17

Feb

20

11

Apr 20

12

Apr 20

13

Apr 20

14

Apr 20

15

Apr 20

16

Apr 20

17

Apr 20

11

Jun 2

012

Jun 2

013

Jun 2

014

Jun 2

015

Jun 2

016

Jun 2

017

Jun 2

011

Aug 2

012

Aug 2

013

Aug 2

014

Aug 2

015

Aug 2

016

Aug 2

017

Aug 2

011

Oct

20

12

Oct

20

13

Oct

20

14

Oct

20

15

Oct

20

16

Oct

20

11

Dec

20

12

Dec

20

13

Dec

20

14

Dec

20

15

Dec

20

16

Dec

20

11


18


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING$1,200,000,000 $2,500

$800,000,000

$2,000

$1,000,000,000

$600,000,000

$1,500

$400,000,000

$1,000

$200,000,000

$500

2017 201820162014 2015

$- $-

Spending Per Person

$1,434

$1,551

$1,941 $1,931

$694

$791,429,800

$873,696,467

$1,119,526,400$1,142,326,400

$410,742,067

P O S I T I V E

19


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8AIRPORT ARRIVALS

6,000,000 $700,000

$600,000

4,000,000

$400,000

5,000,000

$500,000

3,000,000

$300,000

2,000,000

$200,000

1,000,000$100,000

Domestic Arrivals International Arrivals Median House Price

- $-

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1985

1986

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

P O S I T I V E

20


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8VACANCY RATE V. MEDIAN RENT

$600

$500

3.00%

5.00%

4.50%

4.00%

3.50%

2.50%

$400

2.00%

$300

1.50%

$200

1.00%

$100

0.50%

House Rent Unit Rent Vacancy Rate

$- 0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20172016

$395 $400 $405

$420$430

$450$460

$480

3.50%

3.30%

4.10%

4.30%

3.50%

2.30%

2.00%

1.60%1.50%

1.70%

$350 $350 $350 $350$360

$380

$395

$425

P O S I T I V E

21


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8GOLD COASTDWELLING APPROVALS9,000

8,000

7,000

5,000

6,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042001 20032002

House Units Total

3,432

4,509

3,923

2,525 2,594

6,995 6,929

4,391

3,581

2,660

2,274

2,510

4,391

4,945

8,372

4,951

6,864


22


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8BEDROOM COMMENCEMENTS V. POPULATION CHANGE

20,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

6,000

10,000

8,000

4,000

2,000

0

80% Approvals x 2.6/HH Population Change

201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042001 20032002

7,139

9,379

8,160

5,252 5,396

14,550

13,404

14,412

16,865

9,133

14,629

7,448

14,266

5,533

10,300

4,730

9,067

5,221

13,310

9,133

12,644

10,286

10,629

17,414

11,371

10,298

13,562 14,277

14,803


23


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8STOCK ON MARKET

7,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

2017201620152014201320122011201020092008

6,000

3,280

5,3305,200

4,510 4,510 4,4604,520

4,000

4,450


24


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8LONG TERM PERFORMANCE9%

8%

7%

0%

6%

5%

3%

4%

1%

2%

LT 10Yr 7Yr 5Yr 3Yr

Houses Units

7.68%

2.55%

2.80%

5.94%6.11%

5.78%

1.41% 1.44%

3.71%

4.79%


25


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8YIELD

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

Yield House Yield Unit

0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

3.97%

4.79%

5.01%

5.20% 5.17% 5.13%5.20%

5.11%

5.26%

4.29%

4.48%4.41%

4.26%4.17%

4.02% 3.98%

P O S I T I V E

26


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8HOUSE V. UNIT PRICE MOVEMENTS

180%

120%

140%

160%

$700,000

$600,000

100%$400,000

$300,000

$500,000

80%

$200,000

60%

40%

$100,000

20%

0% $-

Median House Price Median Unit Price % Difference Between House & Unit Price (Avg 88%)

1999

1998

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

1981

1980

1979

1978

1997

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

134%

155%

127%

128%

129%

125%

114%

107%

97%

98%96%

91%86%

84%82%

84%88%

88%

93%91%

87%90%

85%

75%

68%

70%

75%76%

76%

75%

75%

75%

74%75%

74%71%

70%68%

68%

67%


27


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8GOLD COAST V. BRISBANEPRICE COMPARISON

180%

160%

$700,000

$600,000

100%

120%

140%

$500,000

80%

$400,000

60%

$300,000

40%

$200,000

20%

$100,000

0% $-

Gold Coast Median Brisbane Median % Difference (Avg 128%)

1999

1998

1996

1995

1994

1985

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1997

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

107%

119%

129%

165%

155%

135%132%

127%127%

132%135%

132% 132%

133%

130%127%

135%

146%

153%

132%

133%135%

136%

121%

120%

114%

111% 110% 110%

112%

109%107%

110%

N E G A T I V E

28


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 8PRICE COMPARISIONS

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

112%

57%

33%

23%

69%

48%

23%

16%

85%

78%

105%

44%

Current Average

BrisbaneTownsville Sunshine CoastCairns Toowoomba Mackay

29

All property must pass our stringent investment criteria and is subject to a thorough due diligence process. Our low risk approach excludes 99% of all properties currently on the market. We never source properties direct from developers and we don’t buy properties off the plan or in new housing developments. We have a strict no commission policy preventing us from ever taking commissions from agents or referrers. We believe in providing quality ethical advice and exceptional customer service. We pride ourselves on delivering successful outcomes every time, guaranteed.

Our objective is not to buy you a property. Purchasing a property is the last step in our considered and thorough process.Our mission is to understand and satisfy your needs – financial or emotional, in a low risk and efficient manner. Our objective is to build you wealth through sophisticated property investment. We believe in everything we do because we treat your investment portfolio like it was our own.

RESEARCH

Macro Micro Property

PERFORMANCEPROPERTYADVISORYSERVICES

Property Acquisition

Australian Bureauof Statistics

Foreign InvestmentReview Board

Australian Trade &InvestmentCommission

BIS Shrapnel

Residex

SQM Research

CoreLogic RP Data

PropertyManagement

Portfolio Review

Sales Advisory /Vendor Advocacy

DATASOURCES:

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