Phase I Wrap Up Meeting

Steering Committee and

Planning Advisory Committee

April 15, 2009

Tell the person next to you a few things that stood out to you while reviewing the Phase I materials

and the Executive Summary

Urbanization Trends

Population:346,864

Urbanized Area:66.2 sq milesPopulation Density:

5,236 pop/sq mi

Urbanization Trends

Population:723,955

Urbanized Area:327.6 sq milesPopulation Density:2,210 pop/sq mi

How do you envision the Region in 2040?

Land Use Pattern Implication

Higher infrastructure and service delivery cost“Thinner” tax baseLonger police, EMT and fire runsLess open space and farmlandLonger commutes, more fuel, more time in vehiclesHard to provide transit, especially in suburbs for elderly and people with disabilitiesHard for low income and minority workers in the city to reach jobs in the suburbs

What is Going Places?

Going Places – An Integrated Land Use Vision of the Miami Valley Region

is to bring theMiami Valley Region

TOGETHER and to make this Region aBETTER PLACE

to live, work, and play with aShared Land Use Vision

Planning Process

3 Phase process with an estimated timeline of 4 yearsPhase I – Existing Condition Assessment: Physical and Non-Physical Condition Evaluation Phase II – Future Landscape Exploration: Future Land Use Scenario Development and AssessmentPhase III – Building a Clear and Shared Regional Growth Framework

Summary of Phase I Existing Conditions Assessment

Phase I Structure

Physical Condition Evaluation – Land SupplyEvaluate the Region’s land development suitability based on both natural and built environment factors Examine the existing uses of land, including land use intensities in the RegionIdentify developable land in the Region

Non-Physical Condition Evaluation – Land DemandIdentify how much land is devoted to different types of land uses Identify socio-economic trends and develop projections Translate these projections into future land demand

Completed Studies

Physical Condition Evaluation - Land SupplyOpen Space AssessmentLand Suitability Assessment – Natural Environment FactorsLand Suitability Assessment – Built Environment FactorsLand Development Suitability Assessment

Non – Physical Condition Evaluation - Land DemandEconomic Base AssessmentHousing AssessmentIndustrial Development AssessmentCommercial Development AssessmentLand Use Demand Assessment

Study reports available on MVRPC’s Going Places website at www.mvrpc.org/rlu/

What have we found out?

Geographically, development has been unevenCommercial GLA Concentration: 2007Housing Unit Change: 1990 - 2000

Development has been shifting among land use types

Residential Commercial Industrial Agricultural

Region 56.1% 148.1% 22.0% -10.5%

- Greene 105.7% 85.9% -10.7% 6.6%

- Miami 123.8% 183.3% 81.7% -6.3%

- Montgomery 25.6% 161.1% 20.3% -31.7%

Land Use Percentage Change: 1975 - 2000

The Region contains varying degrees of potential for future land development

Not all of our land is equal in terms of development potential – some areas are better suited for physical development than others Assessment of Region’s landscape from natural and built environment perspectives provided a comprehensive overview of where developmental constraints and/or opportunities exist

Land Suitability Assessment – Natural Environment

Natural Environment Suitability Composite Map

Regional Land by Development Potential Classification

Land Suitability Assessment – Built Environment

Residential Suitability Composite Map Non-Residential Suitability Composite Map

Comprehensive Land Suitability Measure

Land Development Condition Measure

Land Developability Measure

The Region is in the process of a demographic and economic shift

Population is aging and household size has been decreasingThe Region is shifting from a production-based economy to a service-based economyHousehold income has remained stagnant Number of households who pay more than 30% of their income on housing-related cost has been increasing

Land development not tied to population change

Population in the Region remained relatively stable between 1970 and 2000Between 1975 and 2000, total developed land in the Region increased by 61.2%Vacancy Rates have increased

Residential vacancy rate has risen from 6.34% in 1980 to 6.98% in 200014.6% of the Region’s commercial space is vacant*19.3% of the Region’s industrial space is vacant*

* Estimates were calculated based on Gem Real Estate Group’s sample data from their Retail, Office, and Industrial studies

If current development trends continue, a moderateamount of additional developed land will be required

Regional Population Projections Regional Employment Projections

The Region has enough developable land to accommodate future needs

Supply Vs. Demand

The entire Region will benefit if..

Development is planned and executed in a manner that takes advantage of existing infrastructure before paying for new constructionDevelopment takes advantage of the Region’s natural resources without threatening their quality

Next Step – Phase II

Given projected land demand and considering the regional landscape, where and how should the Region develop in the future?

Future Land Use Scenario DevelopmentLand Use Scenario Impact Assessment

Identify and incorporate local voices into a regional vision of the future

Focus groups and community meetings to understand the wants and needs of the region’s citizensAll data will be used to generate regional development models

Questions?

Endorsement

Phase I Highlights

The Region has become increasingly urbanized, characterized by decentralized, low density development patternsThe Region has experienced a demographic and economic shiftIncreases in land development in the Region have not been tied to population changeLand development in the Region has been uneven geographically and has been shifting among land use typesThe current landscape of the Region contains varying degrees of potential for future land developmentA moderate amount of additional developed land will be required to accommodate the needs of the Region in 2040The Region has enough developable land to accommodate future needs

Questions, Answers, and Discussion

In terms of LAND USE between 2010 and 2040,

the Miami Valley should …

Discussion

Ways to get endorsement of Phase I from more regional stakeholders…

Homework Assignment

Future Land Use Theme Development:

Group the input from today’s discussion into future land use themes

Future Land Use Theme DevelopmentTo identify common future land use themes from the input gathered from today’s meetingCommon themes identified from you and other members of the committees will be used as the base in the future land use scenarios mapping exercise, which is the focus of the Joint Phase II Kick Off meeting Staff will compile input from today and send you a homework assignment details

Next Meeting

Phase II Joint Kick-Off Meeting: Future Land Use Scenario

Development

Time: 9:00 – 11:00 am Date: TBD

Location: Center for Regional Cooperation

Thank You!