The Belt and Road Initiative Beijing’s Blueprint for a Harmonious World

Tao XIE

Beijing Foreign Studies University

May 4, 2016

Going Global Conference

Origin of the Silk Road Economic Belt

• September 7, 2013, Xi gave a speech at Nazarbayev University.

• “In order to make the economic ties closer, mutual cooperation deeper and space of development broader between the Eurasian countries, we can innovate the mode of cooperation and jointly build the ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ step by step to gradually form overall regional cooperation.”

• He singled out cooperation in the following five areas:

• 1. strengthen policy communication

• 2. improve road interconnectivity

• 3. promote trade facilitation

• 4. enhance monetary circulation

• 5. strengthen people-to-people exchanges

Origin of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

• October 3, 2013, Xi addressed the Indonesian Parliament.

• “Southeast Asia has since ancient times been an important hub along the ancient Maritime Silk Road. China will strengthen maritime cooperation with ASEAN countries to make good use of the China-ASEAN Maritime Cooperation Fund set up by the Chinese government and vigorously develop maritime partnership in a joint effort to build the Maritime Silk Road of the 21st century.”

Most Comprehensive

Official Statement on OBOR

• Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road

• Issued on March 28, 2015, at the Boao Forum, by the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Ministry of Commerce.

• “The Belt and Road Initiative aims to promote the connectivity of Asian, European and African continents and their adjacent seas, establish and strengthen partnerships among the countries along the Belt and Road, set up all-dimensional, multi-tiered and composite connectivity networks, and realize diversified, independent, balanced and sustainable development in these countries.”

An initiative, not a strategy

• On September 23, 2015, the three ministries jointly issued a statement on standardizing English translation of the Belt and the Road. The statement specifically emphasizes that initiative should be in singular instead of plural form, and that strategy, project, program, or agenda should not be used.

• Why is this emphasis on initiative?

Initiative vs. strategy

• Initiative: a call for action in the name of a public good (hence inclusiveness).

• It is a “coalition of the willing” that is loosely associated and plagued by the collective action problem.

• Strategy: a deliberate plan of actions that aims to achieve specific goals (usually exclusive).

• It often requires close association among those who share the specific goals, and such close association is usually institutionalized through explicit rules and procedures.

• Besides, strategy smacks of geopolitical ambitions and selfish, whereas initiative sounds lofty and altruistic.

Growth of a research industry

• A search of OBOR “一带一路“ as article

title, in abstract, or in

subject produces

thousands of articles

at www.cnki.net, the

world’s largest digital

collection of Chinese

language journals and

magazines.

Subject Title Abstract

2016 1900 846 1803

2015 7284 3395 6824

2014 412 170 369

Total 9596 4411 8996

Source: www.cnki.net, April 20, 2016

Growth of a research industry

• Institutions (including think tanks) with OBOR or Silk Road in their names: 40

• Institutions that focus on OBOR: 7

• Consortium for OBOR Think Tank Cooperation: 8 institutions

• Consortium for New Silk Road Colleges: 128 member institutions from 38 countries as of April 9.

• Monographs on OBOR: 74

• Top 10 OBOR think tanks

1. China International Engineering Consulting Corporation

2. Center for Financial Research and Development, China Development Bank

3. Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies , Renmin University

4. “One Belt, One Road” Institute of the Center for China & Globalization (CCG)

5. China Academy of “One Belt One Road” Strategy

6. China Region Development & Reform Institute (CRDRI)

7. Pangoal Institution

8. The Chahar Institute

9. Watching Institute

10. Phoenix International think tank

OBOR and educational exchanges

• Tongji University: 50+ students from OBOR countries, in cooperation with Tongji students, produced 51 country reports, which were published under OBOR from the Perspective of a Community of Common Destiny

• Dong Hua University: 1/3 of its 5000 international students come from OBOR countries.

• Shanghai Jiaotong: 1/3 of its 680 international students in 2015 are from 40+ OBOR countries, and 80% are enrolled in master and doctoral programs.

• East China Normal: out of 1200 international students, about half originate from 64 OBOR countries.

• Fudan: plan an all-English Chinese Political Science undergraduate program that attracts students from OBOR countries.

• Shanghai International Studies University: offer 10 official languages spoken by OBOR countries

• Beijing Foreign Studies University: offer 90 languages by 2017; 100 languages by 2020.

Future of OBOR

• 1. Without clear rules and procedures, OBOR sounds more of a new statistical label to describe China’s ongoing economic, cultural, and political ties with countries west of China, rather than an outline of fundamental and concrete changes in Chinese foreign policy.

• 2. The conspicuous absence (or exclusion) of Washington from OBOR provides fertile ground for speculation that it is a Chinese geopolitical scheme aimed at countering U.S. influence.

• 3. Chinese investment has certainly contributed to development in many OBOR countries, but there are also increasing signs that money does not necessarily translate into good will and gratitude.

• 4. Economic slowdown almost certainly will have a significant negative impact on the scope and pace of OBOR.

• 5. More foreign students and businessmen are coming to China as a result of OBOR, but China’s stringent rules on naturalization—plus a narrowly defined Chineseness—makes it impossible to become an oriental Rome.