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OverviewTimelineParties:

A.1.A.2.A.3.B.1B.2

B.3.B.4

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ProfiteersLegend

Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

StrikeAcross Sides

Arguments

Path Forward PACS 4500

Senior Seminar in Peace and Conflict Studies

Death from Above:Drone Strikes by the United States in the Global War

on Terrorism

By John Wilson

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B.3.B.4

3rd Siders:1.2.3.

ProfiteersLegend

Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

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Path Forward

Overview of Principle Parties / Interest Groups

2. CiviliansEffected by

strikes

1. Anti – Western

Extremists

1. The United States

Government

4. Non-governmental organizations / Think Tanks

3. Governments of countries where drone strikes occur

2. Non-governmental organizations /

Think Tanks

3 . Allies of the United

States

Drone and Weapons

Manufacturers

3. Public Opinion of civilians in

countries where strikes occur

1. Western media

2. Public Opinion of American citizens

A: Pro- Drone Strikes B: Anti- Drone Strikes

Third Siders

Profiteers

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Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

StrikeAcross Sides

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Path Forward

Timeline

Sept. 11th 2001 terrorist attacks prompt US invasion of Afghanistan

Taliban are quickly defeated and ousted from power Taliban fighters flee to neighboring Pakistan where the Federally

Administered Tribal Area (FATA) provide a safe refuge for Taliban fighters

The United States is faced with an insurgency where the enemy fighters have a safe refuge to fight from

The inability to decisively defeat the Taliban draw the U.S. into a war that increases Anti-Western radicalism around the world in countries such as: Somalia, Libya and Yemen.

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Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

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Timeline Continued

2004 – First drone strike in Pakistan successful kills enemy insurgents and drone strikes become an option for killing enemy across the legal border of Pakistan

2008 – President Obama loosens the targeting requirements for drone strikes from “known enemy combatants” to “suspected enemy combatants.” As a result, drone strikes in Pakistan increase dramatically

2013 – U.S. Air Force stops releasing public reports of drone strikes. Drone strikes continue to increase in Afghanistan and are

expected to continue to increase as U.S. forces withdraw

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Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

StrikeAcross Sides

Arguments

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A. 1. The United State Government

It is the job of President Obama, as Commander and Chief of the U.S. Military, to defend the U.S. from terrorism

Drone strikes are used to eliminate individuals suspected as a threat to the USA

Drone strikes are used to eliminate terrorist threats that are in areas inaccessible to U.S. Military forces

The U.S. government views civilian casualties to be an unfortunate but acceptable side effect of the drone strikes

Data provided by the U.S. government regarding drone strikes shows a high degree of accuracy and civilian casualties to be very low

The attacks of September 11th targeted American civilians and the grievances caused from those attacks allow the U.S. government to be less sympathetic to civilian deaths caused by drone attacks

Drone Strikes are popular because they don’t require troop commitment and don’t directly endanger military personnel

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Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

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A. 2. Non-Governmental Organizations and Think Tanks

Pro-drone strike think tanks provide data that supports the use of drone strikes• Data shows high enemy kill rates and very low civilian death rates

This conservative data is then used by members in the U.S. government and western media sources to garner support for drone strikes

Click here to go to Website

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Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

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A. 3. Allies of the United States

The governments of Allies to the U.S. involved in the Global War on Terrorism are supportive of drone strikes

The United Kingdom is the primary ally of the United States and has also conducted drone strikes with Royal Air Force aircraft

The UK has had more terrorist attacks (although they have been much less deadly) on its soil by anti–Western extremists and therefore has a vested interest in fighting terrorism. The values, positions and interests of the UK are very similar (if not identical) to those of the United States

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Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

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Arguments

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B. 1. Anti Western Extremists

Anti–Western extremists are the target of drone strikes by the United States

These extremists usually practice a radical version of Islam that calls on its followers to attack Western countries in the name of religion

The deep rooted religious aspect of the extremists makes negotiation and collaboration very difficult

The main interest of these extremists is to eradicate all western influences from their Holy Land, which generally means Middle Eastern countries

Grievances against the US have resulted mainly from the oil industry

Anti-US grievances have been exacerbated by U.S. involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts

Right: Abu Yahya al-Libi. Possible successor to Osama Bin Laden. Killed by a drone strike on June 4, 2012

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Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

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Arguments

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B. 2. Civilians Effected by Strikes

Civilian can be affected directly by the strikes by injury, loss of loved ones, displacement and loss of infrastructure, psychological damage, and death

Civilians effected by the strikes create and reinforce anti-U.S. grievances and are counter-productive to a counterterrorism initiative.

Left: A protest in reaction to drone strikes killing civilians

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Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

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B. 3. Governments of Countries Where Drone Strikes Occur Just like the U.S. government, governments in countries where strike

occur have a responsibility to protect their citizens and drone strikes challenge that responsibility

Drone strikes challenge the government’s sovereignty as they are conducted without the permission from the government in which they occur

The country most affected by drone strikes is Pakistan, where insurgents reside in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)

The issue is not entirely clear cut for these governments: the Pakistani government is publicly against the attacks but is rumored to support the attacks in secret

Drone strikes often occur in areas where the government does not have regional control and although governments may speak out against the drone strikes they may reluctantly support them in secret due to the radical threat to their own country

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Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

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B. 4. Non-Governmental Organizations and Think Tanks

Studies done by organizations not supported by the United States Government report high civilian death rates

A common figure for actual high value targets killed in drone strikes is less than 2%

These groups are usually focused on seeking the truth in conflict and seeking an end to violence against innocent civilians.

“Living Under Drones” is published by Stanford Law School and NYU school of Law

Click here to view the website

• For a report of every drone strike in Pakistan go to: drones.pitchinteractive.com

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3rd Sider – 1. Western Media

Western media (the big six corporations that control about 90% of the media in the United States) tend to report on drone strikes in a manner that makes them seem effective in fighting the war on terror• Reports are inline with U.S. government reports

Full info graphic available at frugaldad.com

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Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

StrikeAcross Sides

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Path Forward

3rd Sider – 2. Public Opinion of American citizens

• The size and diversity of the U.S. citizenry cannot allow for a single analysis but lack of an opposition voice to drone strikes suggests that most people in the U.S. either support the drone strikes or are uninformed / apathetic to the issue

• Factors that contribute to American public support of drone strikes include:• Grievances resulting from the Sept. 11 attacks• Fear of another terrorist attack• Western media (both in portrayal of Anti U.S. radicals and

effectiveness of drone strikes)• Following Presidential leadership

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Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

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Arguments

Path Forward

3rd Sider - 3. Public Opinion of Civilians in Countries Where Strikes Occur

This group is separate from civilians effected by the strikes in that that there are not directly effected by drone strikes

Some civilians are in favor or drone strikes, especially if they are against extremists in their country

Overall, drone strikes decease public opinion of the United States A survey conducted by the Pew Research Center shows that

public opinion of the U.S. has decreased with the increase in drone strikes

74% of Pakistanis call America an enemy

Click here to see the full report

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Profiteers: Drone and Weapons Manufacturers

• General Atomic produces the Predator and Reaper drones, the main unmanned aerial vehicles that conduct these strikes. The Predator costs around $4 million and the Reaper about $30 million

• According to Opensecrets.org, General Atomics spent over $3 million on campaign contributions and lobbying in the U.S. in 2013. This influence can be seen as a reinforcement mechanism for drone attacks

Click here to go to website

• Weapons costs for the payloads of drones range from $25,000 to $150,000. The most common weapon is the Hellfire missile produced by Lockheed Martin, a known heavy hitter in U.S. lobbying. Lockheed spend over $15 million lobbing in 2012

Click here to go to website

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Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

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Legend

Friend

Ally

Adversary

Enemy

Neutral

Other (Mark, Client?)

Exacerbating Dynamic

Ameliorating Dynamic

Danger Point

Causality

Positive: an increase in A causes an increase in B

Negative: an increase in A causes a decrease in B

Party AGroup 1

Party BGroup 1

Negative feedback system (de-escalation)

orPositive feedback system (escalation)

This legend will assist in understanding the dynamics in the following slides

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Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

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Drone Strike Dynamics: Main Conflict

The United States

Government

Anti – Western Extremists

Increase in grievances

against the US

DRONE STRIKESDrone strikes create a reinforcing feedback

loop that increases the animosity between Anti-Western Extremists and

the U.S. Government

The increase in grievances against the U.S. by those effected by drone strikes

results in increased fear in the United States and thus

more drone strikes

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Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

StrikeAcross Sides

Arguments

Path Forward

Drone Strike Dynamics: Pro-Drone Strike Side

Drone and Weapons

Manufacturers

Allies of the United States

Non-governmental organizations /

Think Tanks(Pro drone strikes)

Western media(Pro drone

strikes)

Public Opinion of American

citizens

The United States

Government

This map shows a reinforcement of support from drone strikes within the pro-drone strike side

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Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

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Arguments

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Drone Strike Dynamics: Anti- Drone Strike Side

Anti – Western

Extremists

CiviliansEffected by

strikes

Non-governmental organizations / Think

Tanks(Against drone Strikes)

Governments of countries where

drone strikes occur

Dynamic V

aries

Public Opinion of Civilians in

countries where strikes occur

This map shows a reinforcement of support

against drone strikes on the anti- drone strike side.

The relationship between governments and anti-western extremists varies between ally

and enemy.

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Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

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Drone Strike Dynamics Across Sides

Public Opinion of American citizens

The United States

Government

CiviliansEffected by

strikes

Non-governmental organizations / Think

Tanks(Against drone Strikes)

Dynamic

Varies

This map shows that civilian casualties can decrease support of drone strikes in the United States though reporting from non-governmental organizations and think tanks that are against drone strikes. However this dynamic must be stronger than the reinforcing dynamic seen on the pro-drone strike slide

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Dynamics:Main ConflictPro-Drone StrikeAnti-Drone

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Arguments and Counterarguments for Drone Strikes

Drone strikes do not risk U.S. military personnel

• U.S. military personnel are killed in retribution attacks after drone strikes. The recent increase in “insider attacks” against U.S. military personnel are a clear example

Civilian casualty rates are misleading. Many “civilians” are enemy insurgents because bad guys tend to be surrounded by other bad guys

• While this is true, bad guys also surround themselves with innocent women and children

The blowback from civilian casualties is acceptable given the danger posed by the enemy killed

• There has not been another successful attack on U.S. soil since Sept.11th and drone strikes have likely stopped such an attack. However, this does not mean that the world is safer due to the high number of drone strikes

Drone strikes have unfortunate consequences, but they are the best solution to the problem of the FATA

• This is a popular argument but it is clearly flawed. One better solution would be to better support the Pakistani government in apprehending and prosecuting radicals who pose a threat to the United States

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Path Forward

Path Forward

Dealing with Drone Strikes can be categorized into three main areas:

1. Ending drone strikes that kill civilians

2. Establishing alternatives to dealing with anti-western extremists

3. Deal with the negative consequences of drone strikes

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Ending Drone Strikes That Kill Civilians

Targeting requirements for drone strikes must include only killing known enemy combatants

Military personnel on the ground must confirm the identity and location of enemy combatants before drone strike are authorized• This means drone strikes can only occur in countries where the

United States has committed troops

Drone strikes should only be used when piloted air support is not available

There needs to be an overall reduction in the reliance of air support by U.S. military personnel in theater

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Alternatives to Drone Strikes

Alternatives to dealing with anti-western extremism must take a system based approach that looks at the core issues of the problem. Some examples of core issues are:

• Inequality and poverty

• Inability for countries like Pakistan to secure tribal regions

• United States dependence on oil

Some possible ways to deal with the above core issues:

Humanitarian aid and economic development programs in areas that harbor anti-western extremists

Work with governments like Pakistan to secure lawless areas through internal support

Seek alternative sources of energy outside of the Middle East

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Dealing With the Aftermath

Drone strikes have caused considerable damage in foreign relations of the United States and people who have been negatively effected by drone strikes

Action must be taken to prevent the spread of anti-western extremism as a result of drone strikes

Possible actions: Trauma healing initiatives Truth and reconciliation commissions Community dialogs